Sorry anon, I’m forced to beat the drum again. Can’t be quiet about this.
[DemfromCt]
“We’re arguing about whether we’re in stage 3, as WHO says, or stage 4. We are not in stage 6.”
[dubina]
WHO is clearly watching for the first outbreak (unbroken “chain of infection”, maybe 10 to 100 fatalities in a period of several weeks to a month).
Unless English language has been tortured in a secret East European prision, that outbreak event isn’t described either in Phase 4 or Phase 5. One imagines in fact it can only be the onset of Phase 6.
Will we have no Phase 4 declaration by the WHO until the onset of their Phase 6?
Whereas there’s no panic now, neither is there much rational sense of urgency nor measured grassroots preparation. If the WHO waits until the onset of Phase 6 to declare Phase 4, there will be far more panic than rational sense of urgency. That’s guaranteed.
Given the “facts on the ground”, as Bush likes to say…the emerging clarity of what’s happening and not happening around the world, there’s very little possibility that this delayed response can be due to some technical ambiguity; it must be a specifically agreed decision.
With panic guaranteed, and pandemic seemingly in the offing, how many of you think it’s a good idea to delay grassroots preparation until the onset of pandemic conditions? We’ll most likely have one shot at containment and nobody knows before the fact if that can be successful.
Is this a stupid crapshoot or what?
[Eccles]
“We’ll most likely have one shot at containment and nobody knows before the fact if that can be successful.”
“Dubina - Is this really true? Where will that one shot be fired? China? Vietnam? Indonesia? Crimea?”
[dubina]
Eccles,
Where will that shot be fired?
I don’t know. I’m guessing somewhat more likely in Asia than in Crimea. Also guessing since the very telling shot (probably) hasn’t been fired yet, there’s going to be a first one not immediately associated with a second independent development some thousands of miles away.
Given we still haven’t seen what morning prayers are all about after months of pandemic avian influenza, it seems unlikely to me (but yes, not impossible) that two more outbreaks could break out simultaneously. I think it’s most likely one outbreak with one chance to snuff it before it gets away.
If it does “get away”, what chances that another strain might develop from the first h3h strain or even from bird flu? Hard to say. Some people say that’s what successive pandemic waves are all about.
In any case, if the first outbreak “gets away”, the shit has effectively hit the fan.
You ask:
[Eccles]
“With a widespread distribution of B2B, aren’t multiple independent outbreaks of H2H possible (if not already here)?”
[dubina]
Again, yes, possible.
Niman’s analysis of a family cluster in Indonesia turned up five fatalities. I’m guessing that five fatality cluster could be weak h2h and / or common environmental exposure. Unlike the thing WHO seems to be looking for, that chain of infection (if that’s what it was) was “broken”. But five is halfway to an unbroken ten and we should all be damned nervous.
The other possibility…that hundreds have died in h2h outbreaks that haven’t been confirmed or officially reported (and have somehow subsequently been contained) is, well, possible, but perhaps somewhat less likely. (Sorry to be imprecise, gs, but it’s the best I can do.) Dem is given to say that lies about such momentous stuff are bound to be exposed sooner or later. That leaves us to wonder if rumors are lies and whether it’s sooner or later.
hence a rumors page has been started. I’d like the next ‘rumor’ topic to be stage 4 vs other.
I aim to please.
Done.
thanks! format and - er- slight language change, plus added links.
dubina,
“Given the “facts on the ground”, as Bush likes to say…the emerging clarity of what’s happening and not happening around the world, there’s very little possibility that this delayed response can be due to some technical ambiguity; it must be a specifically agreed decision.”
I have a question.
It appears that for some reason most countries are slow on the uptake for preparing for the pandemic.
It further appears that the consequences of the pandemic are being muted to a large extent.
It also appears that funding for preparations are certainly not commensurate with the threat level the pandemic poses.
It also appears that not only the US, but also may other countries have adopted this type of policy, from China to the US, countries that have radically different forms of governance.
Doesn’t make more since that rather than a prearranged conspiracy theory, that in fact this plurality of administrative responses is more likely an attempt to not cause a panic over a situation they really can’t do a lot about until several months after the first wave? More of a control issue, something alone the lines of a panic causing more unnecessary infrastructure and social problems than providing a full informational disclosure would help?
VA… look at Canada and SARS or look at UK and hoof and mouth.. the economic implications are enormous for travel and tourism cancellation, halting of pultry exports, etc. See economics section on the wiki for more. There’s reason why Indonesia and others are not jumping on the flu bandwagon.
BTW, the other implication is that it’s not as bad as folks make it out to be… right now. You can’t hide that. The issue is the potential, not the reality.
VA,
“Doesn’t make more sense that rather than a prearranged conspiracy theory, that in fact this plurality of administrative responses is more likely an attempt to not cause a panic over a situation they really can’t do a lot about until several months after the first wave?”
Very low possibility of that, VA. There are tons of things that people could do to save millions of lives before a first wave if governments facilitated preparation before an outbreak. One imagines a certain public resignation and resolution in the face of adversity to buckle down. I think you may be a newbie, else you’d have some better idea of the grassroots preparation government could facilitate. It’s not a bad question, but there’s plenty here to answer it.
“More of a control issue, something alone the lines of a panic causing more unnecessary infrastructure and social problems than providing a full informational disclosure would help?”
I think you have to look at it like this: if pandemic flu is on the way, or even if you might there’s a good chance it’s on the way, you save lives by getting ready in a systematic, rational way rather than by government edict in a panic. Every day of delay in favor of certainty (the wave is on its way) is a day that might cost lives down the line.
Anybody who would argue otherwise should be prepared to say what values and assets are conserved by delay. And I’d like to know who’s values and assets, btw.
“prearranged conspiracy theory”
Call it what you will.
If the WHO doesn’t intend for whatever reason to declare it’s Phase 4 Alert until it spots a pandemic outbreak (the forementioned “certainty”), is that not an intentional deception to be exposed and taken to task? Favor what Dem had to say; the decision to delay is bound to be economic. Decision-makers obviously think they have plenty of time, so there’s no sense going off early. Reminds of the monkey who won’t turn loose of the bannana.
If they think they have plenty of time, let’s see their cards. From where I sit, it looks way too risky. Fifty Katrinas aren’t nearly enough.
Gentlemen: Why do you post your comments anonymously? DW
the software doesn’t require a name to post. Some folks are just a tad too fast with the post button.