Dr. Niman, do you still stand by your statements from June 2005? If so, what are your thoughts on the true mortality rate of H5N1?
“Although the positive western blot data has not been confirmed, positive data would be consistent with more clusters in the north which are large and extend over a longer time period. The alarming increase in admission is further cause for concern because the admitted cases have mild disease, suggesting an even larger number of unreported cases with slightly milder disease.
This H5N1 is silently spreading mild disease in human and asymptomatic infections in poultry, which would move the pandemic to phase 6. The seeding of the human population with H5N1 sets the stage for further recombination in the fall when migratory birds bring in new sequences, which will cause new problems.”
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06260502/H5N1_Silent_Spread_Vietnam.html
I think there are quite a few mild cases, but it is hard to get a hard number becauise the cases are simply not being tested or reported.
Thanks for the reply.
Speaking of silent spread, there is probably quite a bit in Indonesia and now that spread is starting to turn into frequent clusters there. There are also reports that the sequences from the human cases are different than poultry, but no sequences from human cases in Indonesia have been made public.
Dr Niman,
Are you more concerned at this point with the Qinghai clade or the Indonesian?
It’s hard to compare the two situations. Indonesia has a significant amount of H2H and I think most milder cases are not reported, so the true extent of H5N1 in humans isn’t well understood. There are no human H5N1 sequences from Indonesia, so it isn’t clear why there is the increased transmission or if there are differences between the familial clusters and the geographical clusters.
The Qinhai starin offers an up close view of an evolving H5N1. Acquiring S227N made a big difference in transmission, but again ther are no deposited sequences and ut is hard to tell how widespread it is, althiugh I ssupect it is most or all human clusters. H5N1 from Qinhai is clearly evolving in many directions in many countries, so it has quite a few opportunities to dramatically chnage. I suspect Qinghai will be a greater threat long term (1–2 years) and Indonesia more of a threat short term (next few months).
Henry,
Your typing is as bad as Dem’s. A little proof reading is in order.
Makes up for it in speed, I’ll bet.
(Ooh. I hate when that happens.)
“Short term threat”. (Ungood.)
No one’s typing is as bad as mine.
Melanie has such a way with words. I’m afraid to type anything now….she might call me on my spelling… : (
Melanie,
You are still batting 1000.
Thank you Dr. Niman. Great information…
jskol – at 22:29
see DemFromCT – at 22:23
Who cares if he can type? Please give him a break…
Yes Dem I saw….but Melanie makes me uncomfortable. I really didn’t notice until several people I sent to this site asked me why she is so rude. I used to run an online site and I don’t think I ever presented myself to the people on my site with such disrespect. And you certainly can disagree…I just think she needs to chill out!
I think Melanie’s feeling the stress from all this added traffic. These boards show an increasing tendency toward flame fights, and she’s trying to keep things on an even keel. Before, when traffic was lower, she could take the time to be more diplomatic. No more.
Niman’s activities here have been a particularly tricky issue for her and the moderators. They’ve actually given him a lot more consideration than they have given to other posters who’ve acted similarly (link trolling and spamming particularly). Read her last comment to Niman in that context. On it’s own, sure it sounds snappish. But in context, it sounds exasperated. And she has plenty of reasons to be. Let’s not forget that in the end, it’s her name that is most closely attached to FluWikie.
Melnaie has typical troll behavior. I don’t read that many threads, but on the ones I post on she has a tendency to jump into discussion to launch personal attacks in attempts to gain attention and hijack threads into off topic discussions centering on her comments. I have asked her to stop following me around because I have no interest in her comments and it detracts from the site in general and on topic discussion in particular.
My comments to others are simply, don’t feed the troll.
Also trolls attract more trolls to further hijack the thread.
Niman calling Melanie a troll. Wow, that takes some serious gall.
Michael, I can appreciate the stress and certainly we all want this site to be the very best, but like I said, she needs to chill. She can not follow everyone around and critique what they say. I enjoy many posters here and Niman is one I have learned a great deal from. Enough said…I really do want this site to be a place I can come to anytime….good times or bad for whatever information I can retrieve.
Okay, back on track. Dr. Niman, when you talk about Indonesia being more of a short-term threat, I presume you are referring to H2H potential?
(PS. IMHO stress is never an adequate excuse for treating another human being with disrespect.)
Let me add an observation to the fray.
Chief Melanite has a lot say by way of scolding and negative comment to Chief Nimanite. Chief Nimanite rubs her the wrong way for some reason; we can only guess. One thing that catches my attention is her tendency to be critical of his science and peer review. I could fetch a few examples, but I won’t for the time being.
Anyway, in view of this…
http://www.node707.com/resume.html
…I wonder at Chief Melanite’s qualifications to be so critical. I see journalism, maybe, and theology for sure, but precious little science.
What’s that all about?
(By the way, another example by which the longer URL is more useful than a tiny URL.)
Melanie is not alone in being rubbed the wrong way by Chief Nimanite.
dubina, niman, et al: By definition, at least my own, I doubt that a moderator/creator of a site can be regarded as a troll. I have been a site mod, as have everybody and their grandmother by now, and the tone is different on each one. As my friends and I have discovered, huge flame wars burst out everywhere, including knitting sites and among tube radio enthusiasts.
Digging up a resume written with a particular position in mind does not tell us everything about Melanie. She’s highlighting ceratin skills for potential employers. I don’t bother to highlight my cashiering and migrant health research skills when I apply for a job as an electrical design/drafter. It has no relevance.
I have no interest at all in joining some argument about whether or not we like Dr. Niman or have learned from him. He has shared some of his observations when he has chosen to. Some cryptic posts have created more anxiety than enlightenment. We need to be aware and learn, but I think it’s important that we are able to stay calm and focused, too.
I’m grateful for the FluWiki and all the information it offers. It was a good way to open the discussion to lots of different people, and that’s the same thing that leads to this back-and-forth stuff. Any chance we will get along better if TSHTF? I sure hope so.
Niman-
Are you using the term troll pejoratively?
Trolls are cute, aren’t they?
You know that you may have to cross her bridge when you come to it?
Why are we back on the Niman thread when we’re already up to IV and we have topical threads where niman allows us to glean from his recombination drops while he’s doing a little E&E from his friend.
Escape and Evade.
Well I don’t think that is the real Niman who is talking here…
the issue in this kind of forum is that everyone can use the same pseudo… The best would be to block the IP address for regular poster…
oops except if the poster is behind a proxy…
Perhaps we should register on this site using a “providers email” (not yahoo, hotmail or any other free accounts) and then sign in with a password, to make comments….no one should be masquerading as someone else. IP numbers can then be viewed..(register can open account with a password sent to the valid email address) I hope I’m explaining this properly…
jskol, you can’t change the software… it is what it is and is set up to be a wiki. The Forum is built into wiki software, not the other way around.
It is doubtful the real niman would be calling one of the moderators a troll. Anyone can sign in as niman and cause trouble (definition of a troll is one who doies exactly that, for their own amusement).
Ignore it. dubina, you’re way off base. Consider the source (troll posing as niman and don’t go off on a tangent). All Melanie has asked Dr. Niman to do is follow the posting rules like everyone else, and he’s been much better at it since.
I agree with you Dem and calling anyone anything with disrespect is out of order. About the software, when I had my site I could buy additional attachments for everything I needed. Yes, everyone should follow the rules.
Dem, you can _always_ change a software. It could be difficult, though. The real Niman called moderator a0 at curevent a troll (maybe correctly), but also (incorrectly) called me a troll. I don’t mind him posting the links here, it would be useful to mark them, when they were already posted, but you can usually find that out by the names.
PmWiki and other wikiware is still in the experimental stage, jskol. This whole site can be considered in the experimental stage. It’s too cutting edge to have fixed modules, yet they are constantly under development. we will keep an eye out for something suitable… but it has to be compatable with other ‘tweaks’ we’ve made.
gs – at 07:00
Your accurate theory must be matched by a practical solution, which may not exist - yet.
The “niman” quote at 4:19 is by some using that name to show that anyone can post under “niman”.
My definition of a troll is someone who either is “off topic” or is posting nonsense, primarily to get a response. The thread soon is hijacked into discussions of the troll. The troll primarily posts person attacks and really has nothing to contibute. It is a devisive technique and should be discouraged by owners of message boards.
It is unfortunate that one of the owners has elected to behave like a troll, especially after several requests to stop.
The request goes both ways.
This thread, which has become unproductive, will be closed off. Remember, anyone can start a new one, similar topic. But if you choose to do so, please have something worthwhile to say. The discussion has been excellent and worthwhile, but niman threads are lightning rods for controversy and argument.