From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 1918 Shortages

30 December 2005

luv2cmwork – at 15:26

I just read a very interesting paper located here:

http://www.schenectadyhistory.org/health/morris/

I wonder why there were no shortages of food and water, in particular, noted in this paper and why you would expect them during the next pandemic? I understand the severity could be different (hopefully less severe) but what other assumptions are you making to arrive at the conclusion that water, for example, will be in short supply?

Oh…and I also realize the “just in time” mentality, where inventories are held low to reduce costs. Is that what you are concerned with, regarding food? But what about water, again, using 1918 as an example.

Anne – at 15:49

The paper was short and didn’t cover everything. I think the authorities are suggesting the stocking up on water and food. The people on this site mean to self quarentine. If you go to shop A. you are exposed to the virus. B. There might be no stores open if the salesforce is home in bed.I will leave it up to those who are better informed to answer further. But A and B are the basic reasons.

Eccles – at 15:59

luv2cmwork -

The issue with water is that it requires the presence and efforts of people to insure delivery of the product both from the quality standpoint (chemistry, treatment, etc), as well as the physical delivery (pumping, plumbing system management, etc).

Further, the process of producing and pumping water depends upon the availability of electricity to make the whole thing work.

One of the great concerns is that if the projected pandemic causes debilitation or death at a rate greater than the utilities can handle, the staffing and maintenance of both the power and other utility systems, including natural gas and water, could be rendered too short staffed to manage the systems. In those cases, the systems can fail due to insufficient personnel to operate it through its normal functions, fail due to weather or mechanical related incidents for which repair personnel or parts are not available (trucking issues), or else be shut down pre-emptively to protect the system from operating without sufficient oversight by its operators, which would endanger the existence of the system itself.

Whether this would occur or not depends on the severity of the illness when or if it hits, and what the reactions to it are on the National or State levels regarding quarantining or embargoing traffic in and through impacted areas.

gs – at 22:13

so, how many people are needed to maintain electricity,water ? I mean, just the supply, not writing bills etc. Has some electricity or water- company already answered whether they will be able to maintain supply in a a pandemic ? Can they be held responsable if supply fails ? There is some exclusion clause on natural disasters, but also illness of stuff ?

Also, food,water and other things can be delivered to your door, if you pay for it. The driver could wear fully pretection suits being desinfected befor and after work. You can store the food for 2 days before touching it or use gloves or heat it. So, yes food,water could be expensive, but I think there will be some. And I doubt that storing food and water now is cheaper than paying those higher prices.

31 December 2005

Pirategrl – at 22:46

GS – at 22:13 “food,water and other things can be delivered to your door, if you pay for it. The driver could wear fully pretection suits being desinfected befor and after work. “

I don’t know about grocery deliveries where you live, but in many parts of the US - outside of the large cities, there is not always grocery delivery readily available. Also, many of the “drivers” who do make what deliveries there are happen to be young high school age kids who are working part time for minimum wage. In the event of a pandemic, odds are that their parents are not going to let them make any deliveries even if they wanted to. I imagine most of these kids would just quit their job.

re: Delivery people wearing a “fully protective suit”…well,it is possible that large delivery services such as UPS,FedEx, etc MIGHT be willing to pay higher salaries and to make the investment in equipment and training required to provide drivers with personal protective equipment(PPE)and the knowledge of how to use it properly, but it is doubtful that local grocery stores would be willing to do so even if they can manage to find drivers willing to take the risk.

In 1918, corpses piled up on the doorsteps of houses because people died so fast that the undertakers could not keep up…hard to get someone to deliver to your door if they must step over the dead bodies to get there.

As to food shortage specifically:

The main food problem in 1918 was not so much a shortage of food per se, but people dying because they were too weak to get out of bed to get food and there was no one available, either family or others, who were willing or able help.

In some cities, entire hospitals were overseen by just one or two doctors and a handful of nurses. One hospital in Philly (IIRC)had a staff that consisted entirely of only 3 nurses and no doctors at all. It would be impossible for 3 nurses to cook for and feed several hundred patients no matter how hard they tried. On a smaller scale, the same thing was happening in families who had a number of members sick or dead.

People died from simple lack of basic bed side care and lack of water and food.

Also, as has been discussed here on a different thread, in 1918, the vast majority of people, even those living in cities,often had a veggie garden and/or fruit trees that provided a significant portion of their food and many folks kept small food animals such as chickens, doves, or rabbits in their homes or backyards. People always had canned goods put aside for a “rainy day” as a matter of course and pretty much always had atleast the basic staples in the pantry to make bread etc.

Far fewer people relied on store bought food items in 1918 than do now. A “food shortage” in 1918 would more likely have been caused by bad weather or animal disease that wiped out everyone’s own private food stocks than something like flu because people did not require much food to be brought in from somewhere else. Today, flu CAN cause a food shortage, especially in a country like the US because very little of what people eat these days comes from their own country much less their own backyard.

It used to be that if you wanted a piece of fruit you went out back and pulled it off a tree or walked down the road and bought it at a local farmer’s marketstand.

Today, you must drive to the store to buy fruit that was shipped in from South America or Mexico or farther depending on the season…that piece of fruit in today’s grocery store probably crossed at least 2, maybe more national borders, was either flown in by plane or sent by boat, had to be loaded on and off of that plane or boat by workers on both sides of the border, had to be inspected and certified and then had to be loaded onto trucks in the US and sent across numerous state and county borderlines to get to the store where you bought it. Today getting that one piece of fruit involves the work of hundreds of people in several countries.

So if pandemic flu causes nations to close their borders the fruit doesn’t leave its country of origin. If airlines and ports are shut down even if the fruit gets out, it rots on the docks waiting to be shipped. If states close their borders, even if it gets into the US it can’t leave the state it arrives in. If 20 to 30% of workers across the board don’t show up to work either due to illness or fear as many predict, there will be far fewer people available to load and unload the fruit, pilot the plane or boat that ships it, inspect and certify it as edible and a shortage of truckers to bring it to your local grocery store; that is assuming your local grocery store is still open.

The problem is not that food won’t exist, the problem is that there are so many more links in the supply chain now than there were in 1918 and all it takes is a break in one of those links to leave all that lovely Chilean fruit rotting on a dock somewhere.

Now of course, some will say that if every country just keeps the food they usually ship elsewhere, then there should be no problem…but you still have the issue of the number of people required “in country” to get that food from the farm to a point where it is processed or preserved in a usable form and can be distributed to areas where food is not grown such as NYC or Paris etc. The largest concentrations of people are in areas where the nearest farm may be hundereds of miles away…without an unbroken chain of willing, healthy workers, the food cannot be moved to where it is needed.

01 January 2006

M Fox – at 00:01

OK, it seems silly, but I bet we’re all thinking it - don’t break into your supply of canned chicken soup unless you get sick.

My last trip to the warehouse club I picked up a 12-pack. When I came home I heard - “this is good, but it’d be nice if we had an actual pantry”. So, now I’ll take it as a “suggestion” to set up a pantry, and I can start working on filling it up.

So call me sneaky…

Grace RN – at 12:13

“People died from simple lack of basic bed side care and lack of water and food.” It is not difficult for me to picture the same, or worse, occuring in a 21st century pandemic.

crfullmoon – at 13:58

Doesn’t seem to be taken into account by the government planners though; theythemselves may be that sick, too.

Currently too many people don’t keep enough things at home nor near to hand if they got sick, or live alone, or live with people that don’t recognize the dangers of dehydration, ect, nor when to call a doctor/ambulance, let alone what to do if one couldn’t send a sick person to hospital.

Half the US families were probably living on rural farms in 1918, and now some households don’t even know how to cook, and more places had their own well water -maybe even hand-pumped back in 1918? Now water is tied to electricity.

Carolina Girl – at 14:57

I think this pandemic when it comes will be a whole different ballgame - we’re not the same population we were in 1918. We’re not self sufficient. Very few of us have wells for water and those that do rely on an electric pump to get that water from the well. We’ve seen what happens when the power goes off and yes I do believe that without a staff at the electric company eventually the power will go off. Why on earth should those employees come in to restore power and take a chance on getting close to another employee who may be infected? That’s not human nature - they are going to want to stay home with their families. When word comes out that the virus may be easily passed, I think whatever is in the stores will disappear quickly and may not be restocked any time soon. When Katrina hit NOLA and word got out about a gas shortage because the refineries were’t up and running, the gas stations were packed with people topping off their tanks and in a matter of a few short hours, there was not a gas station in my town of half a million people with any gas.

Worried in the city – at 16:09

Another difference is in 1918 they did not know what caused the sickness. Authorities told people to wear gause masks to prevent infection. People willingly went out and worked in completely ineffective masks. So the supply chain continued. Today’s citizen is better informed and more likely to stay home - which will break the supply chain. The positive spin of this is maybe it will break the transmission chain. I have used the best hygene imaginable the past month and still caught two horrible viruses, along with everyone I know. I am thinking there is a lot more airborne contamination than people realize because my hands have been clean

gs – at 21:36

they did stay home in 1918, many did. They bought things at the grocer by shouting through closed doors and fetching it from the street.

The virus must have been extremely contagious, I wonder how it managed to transmit. Has someone read a study about this ?

NW – at 23:04

“Why on earth should those employees come in to restore power and take a chance on getting close to another employee who may be infected? That’s not human nature - they are going to want to stay home with their families”

They are going to want to. Many NOLA police abandoned their posts but most did not. I believe if a pandemic hits there will be plenty of heroes. Self sacrifice is part of hman nature also. But it’s the scoundrels who often get noticed. Also everyone won’t get sick at once. Also, many will get sick, recover and return to work immune. Spot outages and shortages certainly. Overall, I believe everyone will do everything they can to keep things ticking. :)

02 January 2006

Racter – at 00:03

Carolina Girl:

“We’ve seen what happens when the power goes off and yes I do believe that without a staff at the electric company eventually the power will go off. Why on earth should those employees come in to restore power and take a chance on getting close to another employee who may be infected?”

You might want to take into account the willingness to take chances they demonstrate when power is knocked out during storms and the like.

gs – at 00:08

I think, you can always protect your workers with suitable equipment. And we can use robots for some tasks. It’s just more expensive and unconfortable and prices for power might redouble or such. BTW. what became really expensive in some places in 1918 were coffins and caskets, so for the preppers: store your food and water in caskets ! It get also be a good idea to get some additional protection suits and masks,gloves,soap etc. to trade them later for food etc. or just for profit.

Racter – at 00:36

Maybe we could make robots and use them to pack caskets full of stuff to sell for profit. Hey — you think we could make GIRL robots?

Sorry, g, just couldn’t resist that time. We love ya, man. That brain of yours is a powerful instrument; please use it responsibly.

GaudiaRayat 01:25

NW – Also everyone won’t get sick at once. Also, many will get sick, recover and return to work immune. Spot outages and shortages certainly. Overall, I believe everyone will do everything they can to keep things ticking. :)

GR: Not at all. LisatheGP in FluClinic did a calculation based on my numbers taken from the UK Pandemic Plan. We assumed 15 weeks of infection in a wave and a max of 35% of the population infected. LGP calculated that 21% + will be sick AT ONE TIME! And do we assume there will be one person staying home for each sick person? That’s at least a 30% or 40% sickout rate, and that will be for 3 weeks, at the top of the pyramid curve. And that, just for that 3 week window. What about the rest of the time, the 4 additional weeks up and 4 weeks down before each exits or returns to the low-mid level mesa, which would already be taxing?

There’s a lotta wishing it were not true. Check out the UK Pandemic Plan. Then explain where the workers are going to come from? No matter what amount of selflessness, the illness rate in that window of time will be too large to expect anything but a skeleton functioning of any society. All are vulnerable. None hold a Get Out of Jail Free Card.

gs – at 02:21

GR:the workers come from other factories or institutions, which will be closed. E.g. teachers, car-building,sales-representatives, prisoners,students,…

there was no real problem to get workers in 1918 (except nurses etc.) though too many were sick. Fear of infection was another problem,though.

Racter: sure you can also get GIRL-robots,outfit of your choice. Just imagine a programmable,remote-controlled,flexible doll with some joints and motors. You can send her out to fetch the post and newspaper in a pandemic or even do some shopping.(much safer than a dog) But don’t forget to desinfect her and the post before touching !

LizBat 11:34

“I have used the best hygene imaginable the past month and still caught two horrible viruses, along with everyone I know. I am thinking there is a lot more airborne contamination than people realize because my hands have been clean”

Me, too. I figured with all I have learned following bird flu boards, I never have to get a cold or flu again. Live alone, see no one several days a week, wash hands often, Airborne and Sambucol ever time I went out to be with people.

Caught a bad cold that three days later developed a bacterial upper respiratory, plus a viral upper respiratory, and ending with a cold.

I’ve done “everything” right and yet was very sick over Christmas for two weeks.

This experience makes me a whole lot less confident about dodging the bird flu if it goes pandemic.

Anne – at 11:41

I am out and about continually, but I have been very vigilant about clean hands. I too have caught more this winter than ever before. Only 2nd time I ever had pneumonia. Only blessing, I’m extremely resilient, and recover quickly and completely. I blame weather, just before the pneumonia it was very mild in the 60′s, then a snowfall and below freezing. I got chilled, and I feel that was what did it for me. Heated, sweating under cashmere sweaters, than chilled to the bone.

Racter – at 11:41

LizB:

“I am thinking there is a lot more airborne contamination than people realize because my hands have been clean”

I can’t recall the source at the moment, but I remember the results of (at least) one study suggested that the first three feet or so are critical — if you can keep that much distance between yourself and a contagious person, you cut your chances of catching the bug in half (or something like that).

gs – at 13:22

should be more than in half.

What about all these things you touch when shopping ? Doors, buses, trains,

Have you people figured out, whom you got it from ?

Well, you can also get it from asymptomatic carriers. Is this also true for vaccinated people who won’t become sick ? Can they spread the desease ?

Anne – at 13:40

I come in contact with hundreds of people every day.

gs – at 14:29

you’re a threat for mankind ! [;-)] I had no flu for >20 years, I never was on an airplane or even an airport in my life.(AFAIR)

Racter – at 14:29

gs:

“What about all these things you touch when shopping ? Doors, buses, trains”

I mentioned in one thread that Santa put little bottles of hand sanitizer in all our family members’ stockings this year. They’re small enough to fit comfortably inside a pocket, and the stuff smells nice. Probably the alcohol. I love the smell of alcohol. With a tissue or someting to wipe it off with, you can “wash” your hands anywhere.

gs – at 15:03

realistically, how often will you “wash” them ? You won’t wash them every time you touch something. There are also these little paper-tissues with “eau de cologne” for one-times-use. Also in optics-shops for wiping the glasses. But I don’t think this will reduce infections by more than about 50%, so nothing you would rely on in a pandemic.

Seems that Santa put some little viruses into the stockings too this year.

Pirategrl – at 18:51

gs – at 02:21

“GR:the workers come from other factories or institutions, which will be closed. E.g. teachers, car-building,sales-representatives, prisoners,students,… there was no real problem to get workers in 1918 (except nurses etc.) “

This is a lovely idea, but not very realistic…today’s essential skill sets are not the same as they were in 1918.

Yes, perhaps a taxi driver, office receptionist, or autoparts worker could help pick up trash if too many sanitation workers are sick/dead, answer phones at a government office or maybe be pressed into service to drive a food truck, BUT that same taxi driver could NOT replace the computer systems monitoring manager at the water treatment plant, a powerline repairman , a healthcare worker or the local fire or police chief…we have a far greater need and reliance on persons who have highly specific job skills and training today than they did in 1918.

Racter – at 19:47

“But I don’t think this will reduce infections by more than about 50%, so nothing you would rely on in a pandemic.”

I think you’re probably being somewhat generous with 50%, but I’ll tell ya what: I’ll take it.

luv2cmwork – at 23:51

Interesting.

First, I realize, that if it’s your strategy to self quarantine, then stock piling food is appropriate. In fact, while I believe in the end, there is little chance of avoiding some type of infection, I too, will consider self quarantine. But my question wasn’t geared toward self quarantine. I’m more concerned with shortages, since death from dehydration is certain, while death from the flu may not be so certain.

I just don’t believe that shortages of water, electricty or workers will materialize to the extent believed by many people here on this forum. Does the possibility exist? Yes. But I have a little more faith in people in general and it would appear, that 1918 proves me right. While far from normal, life will continue for many.

But make no mistake, it’s my opinion, if BF jumps to H2H with the same results as seen in current human cases, the suffering will be enormous. That’s why I watch this forum so closely.

03 January 2006

gs – at 00:34

pirate:knowledge can be submitted by phone. Those specialists are still working but from home. racter: say it’s 50% less probable per day of being infected. That gives you an expected advantage of a few days only luv:yes, I also think self-quarantine for some months is best, if it goes really bad as in Oct.1918. Unless you have an essential job which can’t be done from home by phone/internet. Take care that you get fully protective cloths in that event.It will be uncomfortable anyway, but it might work. I see no big problem with water. And then, you can still get water before it starts. (unless you live in a desert or such..)

Pirategrl – at 14:05

gs – at 00:34 “pirate:knowledge can be submitted by phone. Those specialists are still working but from home.”

GS - How will these experts be working from home? Is an electrician who is down with the flu going to call up a homeowner and explain to him over the phone how to climb a pole and fix their own downed power line without getting killed? Will a surgeon call up a patient and explain over the phone how to remove his own appendix with a kitchen knife? I know that I couldn’t possibly explain to you over the phone exactly how to put in an IV or how to intubate a person who isn’t breathing…its something that has to be SEEN to really be understood.

Your answer seems to assume that these “experts” are not busy vomiting, soiling the sheets,lost in delirium and fighting to breathe…if they have the flu, they are possibly not going to be in any shape to be giving phone coaching even IF doing so made sense. AND that assumes that the person on the other end of the phone has the same education and expert training base as the “expert on the phone” so that any explanation given would actually be understood.

Your previous post stated that “the workers come from other factories or institutions, which will be closed. E.g. teachers, car-building,sales-representatives, prisoners,students”

Now for example, if your sick expert is the one guy in a small town water plant who knows how to do the chemical and mathematical equations needed to ensure that water for the town is treated properly to be safe for drinking in the event that the computer that usually does this calculation shuts down(this implies at least a college education that included a number of higher math and science classes and possibly a specialized postgraduate degree) and your proposed “replacement worker” is a guy who barely made it out of highschool and has never taken a chemistry or higher math class, but is a good guy and a hard worker who was willing to volunteer, what do you do?

If you are lucky, maybe there is a college student available who is a chemistry major who can help this volunteer out, but maybe you are not so lucky (since in 1918 college students were among the age group that died most frequently from flu)…how does your sick expert explain 6 years of college level education over the phone to the highschool educated replacement worker? (again assuming the expert is well enough to have a phone conversation at all)

And of course if the experts are home but not actually ill, then at least some of them are staying home due to fear and are not going to be calling in to work to give advice if others have gone in to do their jobs…you don’t call the boss to tell him you are playing hookie!

My point is that you can’t just assume that someone of similar education/training will always be available to step in and fill essential job roles especially in smaller towns that may not have easy access to additonal trained personnel.

Name – at 14:35

I agree with PirateGirl: you’ll need people with very specific qualifications (most jobs are extraordinarily specialized today vs 1918), plus they’ll need to be willing to go out, plus you actually have to track them down and find them when you need them. Not likley to happen in a short-term panic situation, especially without very careful pre-planning. Which is why countries that have worked through this are strongly urging businesses and organizations to start thinking about these things and making their back-up plans now.

Re transmission for those who are careful about handwashing, another problem may be others in your family who are less careful (kids!) and also the airborn aspect. I once saw someone sneeze on the sidewalk in front of me with the sun shining through it and was horrified to realize I was about to walk through a thick cloud of suspended snot droplets that I would never have seen in normal light!

Racter – at 14:48

bs:

“say it’s 50% less probable per day of being infected. That gives you an expected advantage of a few days only.”

I don’t think I like your math there; please show your work.

Name:

“I once saw someone sneeze on the sidewalk in front of me with the sun shining through it and was horrified to realize I was about to walk through a thick cloud of suspended snot droplets that I would never have seen in normal light!”

Sometimes, life looks like a thick cloud of suspended snot droplets. That could be a nice sig. Or maybe not. Anyway. I think that’s the principle behind the “three foot buffer zone” idea; that stuff is heavy relative to air, and doesn’t stay suspended long. I also recall a discussion (I’ll try to dredge up the source) about the effeciency of airborne transmission, the conclusion being that it was much less efficient than contact with surfaces, etc.

Anne – at 15:15

Having someone cough directly onto my face this November (caught a Bflu) I can tell you there is a lot of spray and spittle in one single cough. I went to the restroom and washed my face thoroughly, but the damage was done. I just read the posting on coconut oils and face and nail washing. I rarely do more than splash water on my face or scrub the sides in the shower as I have exceptionally good skin, but now I will. I also began carrying a nail brush to scrub under my nails. (Except for mechanics I think dirty nails are a sign of poor grooming and am repelled.) I also have been careful to keep some distance between myself and others, especially if they are of the talk and spray spit type. The trouble is people like to lean close, and if you back away they can feel offended.

Pirategrl – at 16:15

luv2cmwork – at 23:51 “I just don’t believe that shortages of water, electricty or workers will materialize to the extent believed by many people here on this forum. Does the possibility exist? Yes. But I have a little more faith in people in general and it would appear, that 1918 proves me right. While far from normal, life will continue for many.”

Luv2,

How does 1918 prove that there will be no service disruptions now?

re: Electricity: In 1918, there was no integrated electricity/power system grid infrastructure like we have today. Electricity was most often generated by small onsite plants. A large church, factory or apartment building that had electricity had its own little mini stand alone generator plant out back. Many homes still operated primarily on gas and coal, the fireplace and oil lamps for heat and light. 1918 did not yet have a large electrical grid network capable of having one small power overload in Ohio produce a cascade that could take out power in large parts of the US and Canada like happened a few years back.

In 1918, you might be concerned that you building’s electrical power might go out, but if it did, you just lit the gas lamp and tossed a couple more logs on the fire and went on with your day. Today, you can’t do that unless you have purchased a gas or oil lamp already and live in a home that happens to have a fireplace which many modern homes do not.

Today, chances may be small that one key person in your local powerplant is too sick to work or makes a major mistake, but that is not the real issue, the real problem is that when you look at the entire grid set up, and look at the chances that some worker somewhere may be sick or make a mistake that crashes all or part of a larger grid like happened a few years back, the odds are much higher that it may happen.

re: Water: There was some urban water treatment infrastucture by the early 1900s, treatment consisted primarily of low tech filtration and chlorination, but there weren’t any significant uniform standards for drinking water treatment until the 1940s. The treatment plants that did exist in 1918 dealt with a far lower volume of water, served far fewer people than they do today and treatment was a far less complex process than it is now.

Also, outside of the very urban cities, homes still got their water from their own wells, so most people across the country would not have experienced a problem if a treatment plant shut down in 1918. Also, in 1918, most streams and rivers etc were still considered safe to drink from which is not true today. So there were multiple sources of water in 1918 that didn’t rely on a staff of trained employees to delivery it to homes for use. In 1918 if your water supply went down, you got a bucket and headed to the creek or you used your neighbor’s well. Most can’t do either of those things today…if we have no potable water from the tap, we must either have bottled water already on hand or have a method ready to purify the water if it is still coming out of the tap but is of questionable quality.

Its not so much that people here absolutely assume that all services will be disrupted, but that they recognize that the possibility exists and are planning ahead to deal with it so that their self quarantine need not be breached if it does happen.

If you don’t already have supplies on hand when you start your home quarantine, then if power or water does go out, you must expose yourself to a much greater risk of infection in order to go out and buy a flashlight and some bottled water - assuming the store is open.

IF as many have predicted there will be 20% to 50% of the workforce not at work on a given day during a pandemic, that means that a significant number of the workers still working will have been forced to take on additional workload and tasks that they are unfamiliar with. They will be overtired, very unhappy and unsure of what they are doing. This in my mind sets up a situation in which mistakes will be made much more often than is the norm and the potential for larger mistakes resulting in larger disruption goes up also.

Michelle – at 16:31

Pirategirl - Very well said and very good points made.

luv2cmwork – at 17:37

Pirategirl - You have made your point well. But you make the assumption, that there will be underlying problems. Why would you assume my electrical line would be down? Why would you assume I’ll have my apendix out? You are complicating the real issue, I think, with imaginary “what if’s”. We did that during Y2K and learned that they never materialized. Somebody will have to have their appendix out, yes. In the last year, how many people that you know, have had theirs out? How many people that you know have had to have their power lines fixed? Any? One…maybe two? I’m not opposed to being prepared, but sensationalizing the effects of a pandemic by “what if’s” only causes more panic. Shortages will only occur, if panic ensues. That’s really my point, I guess. And we didn’t see that in 1918 and I wonder if it’s wishful thinking to consider it possible during the next pandemic.

You make a good point about sources of water in 1918. Any stream would work, but contamination existed then too. Maybe not chemical pollution we see today, but certainly microbial contamination.

I know our water guy (one guy, in a small town) personally. He has no college degree, nor any special pre-requisite training (other than plumbing). He has trained on the job. I’m sure, he tests water periodically, with idiot proof tests. And I’m guessing, that he treats the water accordingly. But I dont’ believe its rocket science. He works for a company, that employees other such trained people, that I’m sure, must know our system when he is on vacation. I truly believe, we would get by. It seem impractical, to store enough water for a family of 4, for more than two weeks at best. And from everything I’ve read, the first wave will extend beyond two weeks. New Orleans not withstanding, there are solutions for people who wish to be involved in a cooperative endeavor to survive.

Food is another issue. I think it’s possible, the grocery shelves will empty, if a pandemic comes fast enough. Shortage of many items MAY occur, simply because we don’t hold large inventories anymore. And you are right…we buy everthing. Nothing home made anymore.

My bigger concern is money. If people aren’t working as you suggest, how will they pay their mortages? My money, is being used by you to buy your house and you’ll pay it back when you can(all done through the bank). What if you can’t pay it back? What if many can’t? What happens to my money? Is it gone? Will you be forced to sell your house and get half of what I gave you to buy it? So I get 50 cents on the dollar? People will work, because they will HAVE to!! Otherwise, the system falls apart. Again that didn’t happen in 1918 and suspect it will not happen this time.

I could go on and on…..Let’s hope we never know.

Carolina Girl – at 18:11

I think money may be an issue but only see it as a short term one because I just don’t see people out there shopping - I think most people are going to stay home to try to avoid getting sick. I would still like to believe in a vaccine being available within a year of the flu mutating to H2H. Maybe I’m naive but I beleive in our scientists and think a year is enough time for them to get it produced. I envision drive through clinics - back to money - I don’t think anyone is going to lose their homes - we’ll all be in the same boat with the majority of us not working - schools are going to close very early in a pandemic and I think the majority of businesses will follow suit. I work in a state government job and some of the emergency responsibility is done in our section and I know the majority of those jobs are going to shut down very early in a pandemic situation. Those of us with laptops will work from home but noone will be coming into the offices.

luv2cmwork – at 18:24

If I don’t work, I likely won’t get paid. So, I’ll need to rely on my savings which has been loaned out to you, to buy your house (using you as an example). So, although their records SAY I have cash in the bank, because all the CASH has been withdrawn from the bank and they have no cash left. Their only remaining assets, are loans, that people can’t repay, because they aren’t working. So how will anyone purchase things as needed or once supplies run out? Use your good looks? Just because businesses and schools close, doesn’t mean you won’t continue to consume things that need to be replenished.

Most people will shop in the short term, because they haven’t prepared well enough. If you are concerned with shortages of food and water…and people not working…you better have a ton of cash on hand along with that water and food. You might be able to get by, but if you can imagine the worst, you can certainly imagine circumstances where cash (or other things of value) will be important as well.

I hope to, that a vaccine would be soon in coming. But I’m afraid that is wishful thinking. Oh…and how would you pay for it?

I really don’t know where I’m going with this…but I think maybe we may be a bit over zealous about imagining the worst. While the possibility exists, my original point was it didn’t happen in 1918. People still worked!

Carolina Girl – at 18:36

I know and people may well work through this one. I guess we all better hope they do so they can refill the shelves because no matter how well we plan and stockpile, there are going to be things we all need to go out and get. I just meant I don’t think people will lose their homes or have their cars repossessed - since we will all be in the same boat so to speak I just think debts won’t be an issue for the time being. But yes, I do plan to have some cash on hand and realize for so many people that will be a real problem. I remember back when I was a single parent - there was no way I could have put aside money to tide me over or to buy extra food to have “just in case”. No matter what happens if this flu mutates to H2H it is going to be a terrible thing and we will all be lucky to live through it. I do know I am not going to worry about my mortgage payments in the event of a pandemic - I’ll settle with the bank when it’s over. I think they will be happy if we’re all alive to go back to work and start repaying those debts then.

Eccles – at 18:46

Don’t overlook the potential value of tradegoods in your stock. Something as simple as a pack of smokes or a pint of whiskey could well be much more valuable during times when the economy is highly disturbed.

Whenever shortages develop, so do black markets and barter economies. You should think to put aside some of the more popular items that cause people to climb the walls when they do without it. While I don’t necessarily approve of smoking, I can well anticipate the purchasing power of a pack of cigs when money gets to be in tight supply, or merchandise gets to be in tight supply. Putting away a couple of $3 bottles of no-name whiskey and a $35 carton of cancer-sticks may be something to think about.

Racter – at 20:09

Me:

“I also recall a discussion (I’ll try to dredge up the source) about the effeciency of airborne transmission, the conclusion being that it was much less efficient than contact with surfaces, etc.”

This isn’t the source I was thinking of (an discussion from maybe a year or two ago), but the CDC’s Q&A page is better anyway.

“The main way that influenza viruses are spread is from person to person in respiratory droplets of coughs and sneezes. (This is called “droplet spread.”) This can happen when droplets from a cough or sneeze of an infected person are propelled (generally up to 3 feet) through the air and deposited on the mouth or nose of people nearby. Though much less frequent, the viruses also can be spread when a person touches respiratory droplets on another person or an object and then touches their own mouth or nose (or someone else’s mouth or nose) before washing their hands.”

Might notice that this indicates that what I said in the above post is wrong, which makes this a correction.

Name – at 20:26

I agree that having some financial back-up could be as important as backup food, power etc.

Another factor today vs 1918 is that our megacities today are vastly larger than they were then, which makes us city dwellers that more vulnerable and dealing with the impacts of any disuption that much more challenging.

I agree too that many of the scenarios here are worse-case, if not worst-case, but then again, so was Katrina. To the extent that you can afford to be prepared and that being prepared matters to you, you do need to consider beyond the best-case scenarios. Being able to survive on your own for even a few days to a week during the worst of a pandemic (or other disaster such as a major earthquake) might make all the difference. And it’s no use having all that canned food or tamiflu or whatever if you have nothing to cook with, no meds or no water, so it is useful to consider all the possibilities before deciding what to invest in, based on what you can afford and how secure you need to be. That second part is very much a personal choice and there’s no right or wrong.

Lisa B – at 22:48

After living thru 3 major hurricanes over the past year including the surprise in our area of Wilma, I have really become versed in the psychology of the unprepared. Even with several days of warning, people do not prepare unless really pushed. Panic sets in very quickly. Shelves clear in the blink of an eye and are not replaced for many days even weeks. The very next day there are people wandering the streets to find something open. Unbelievably there are many people who do not even have a days worth of food or water stored. People will wait in the hot sun for a bag of ice and a dozen water bottles. They are irate that no one has come to feed them yet. This is the next DAY! There has been days of warning. What were they going to eat and drink if the hurricane didn’t come? People have become accustomed to being taken care of. Everyone is used to eating out and not having very much on hand. You will find that out for sure.

When the water goes out, you need to then start the 48 hour boil process and that is after the water is considered safe. Of course you need a way to boil it. We depend on water and electricity with our lives. After 2 weeks without either, your hygeine is compromised regardless of how hard you try. Thank God for an inground pool! Most people after a week of no water, no restaurants, no TV or Cable or INTERNET are completely crazed. Most of my clients had such a dazed look on their faces. The sheer stress of it all is exhausting let alone the fact that you are overwhelmed with all the extra work it takes to live somewhat civil. Everyone is also expected to get back to work even though your kids are home, you are hauling buckets just to flush the toilets, you are boiling water on the bbq to make coffee etc. This is all part of living in paradise the rest of the year. Most people(unprepared people that is) would describe it as barbaric in comparison to how we usually live. On the flip side of the coin are the few that really prepare. We always cook all our frozen food at the first sign of a hurricane coming and then refreeze most of it again in small portions. Most food will last pretty long in an untouched freezer. I always freeze gallon and quart size ziplocs filled with filtered water and leave it in the freezer until you absolutely need to use it for drinking or cooking. I always have bottled water but I also save 2 liter bottles and wash and bleach and keep for when I need to fill them up with water. Fill up the bath tubs especially if you have a separate shower to use. Always have a couple different size chafing dishes, fondues and sterno. They go a long way. Always have alot of prepared dishes because stress can really take alot of energy! Most of all, Have something to keep yourself entertained and engaged as well as the kids. That was just a hurricane! Imagine what would happen when most people would be blindsided by something like a pandemic. That brings sickness to the head of household or even death. Most people these days don’t know their neighbors and their neighbors probably wouldn’t be comfortable coming into someone else’s house to take care of someone they hardly know and their family. I suspect just seeing people you know dying is going to be enough to put most of us into a serious daze. Again this stress takes a serious toll. Most people will probably have a hard time getting through the phone lines. I know they are busy during most big events. My relatives are just out of their minds until they can get through and hear our voices after a hurricane. This is very stressful to them. I imagine that will also add to the stress level. Moral of the story is, do not underestimate how things will go. Being prepared is extremely important to your well being and that of your family. Soaking beans overnight and cooking on sterno the next day when you are exhausted is alot bigger chore than you realize when you are comfie sitting on the couch before the storm. Try to make things as easy as possible especially in the beginning when you are too worried to bake fresh bread from scratch because you know so many people have not prepared and there are children going to bed hungry.

Sorry to be such a downer, but I know after my first week after the first storm last year, we were exhausted and luckily we had lots of premade precooked meals and lots of comfort food or we couldn’t have made it. After a week, we decided to jump a plane and take an Alaskan cruise. Wimps!! We felt bad for the kids. We wouldn’t let them out because of the dangerous debris. It’s tough being homebound with no facilities even in the most prepared situation. This has made us alot more prepared now. This gives us a leg up after 3 natural disasters. I kinda feel bad now for someone who has never been through one because they don’t know the severity.

1918 has nothing to do with us. We all live a very spoiled life. They did not. Our expectations are very high. Theirs were not. They got a lot of exercise. We don’t. They were used to alot more bacteria than we are. We are anti-bacterial everything. They were used to working physically alot harder than we work. They were used to death alot more than we are. We think a doctor can fix everything and when they can’t, we get mad and sue. They accepted it as God’s work. In all, I think they were alot more prepared than we are, even without the constant newsfeeds that we have.

Worried in the city – at 23:00

I have food and masks and OTC medicines but am also worried about the money. I work for the state with my paycheck automatically deposited. I have accumulated 6 months of sick leave. Great right? The city of New Orleans went bankrupt in 30–60 days and had to fire all their employees. If citizens stop buying, everybody stops earning, nobody pays their bills. In New Orleans, the banks voluntarily deferred mortgage payments for 60 days and then home-owners had a year to pay it all back (14 months of payments due over 12 months.) Why would we be treated differently? But like fatal flu itself, it is too horrible to really think about losing everything. Stockpiling a mountain of cash is impossible due to all of our of current obligations. So we ignore the problem.

Ganygirl – at 23:02

Thank you for that.

Worried in the city – at 23:07

Excellent post Lisa B!

Lisa B – at 23:15

Thanks! It’s my first one.

gs – at 23:16

rac: suppose at any given day you have a 10% chance of being infected. Then it takes 10 days in average. When you manage to reduce it to 5%, well then you have 20 days in average. But by that time more virus is around and you won’t be able to maintain the 5%. Seems that in 1918 almost everyone was infected - hygiene could only slow it down a bit. luv: you only stop working for the expected 6–8 weeks of a wave. Maybe you can still do some work at home. And when you are infected and recovered you will likely be immun to later infection. I assume, this could be tested with blood-tests. rac: I assume the panvirus is different from flu not only in mortality but also in infectivity. These masks in 1918 should have helped against droplets but they were useless. ecc: what will be used in a pandemic ? Desinfects,protective cloths, telefones,cheap computers,radios,microscopes,UV-lamps,electronic trading, books,cheap cameras,blood+urinary dipsticks,… just some ideas. If you really want to stockpile, consider these. Make the order-list now, but start buying only when the panflu is really imminent.

04 January 2006

luv2cmwork – at 11:25

I believe, that everyone will become infected. It simply can’t be avoided. And should it be avoided, honestly? Will you be hiding from a virus mutation the rest of your life? Even if you are immune from the original? I don’t know.

LisaB - Great post. You opened my eyes with your comments and experience. Your last paragraph, in particular, really struck home with me. I’m from the midwest and slightly older. My values, work ethic and so on, are probably more similar to those of the 1918 times, than many. That’s maybe why I have a hard time getting my arms around it.

Grace RN – at 11:49

From LisaB at 2248: “Even with several days of warning, people do not prepare unless really pushed. Panic sets in very quickly. Shelves clear in the blink of an eye and are not replaced for many days even weeks. The very next day there are people wandering the streets to find something open. Unbelievably there are many people who do not even have a days worth of food or water stored. People will wait in the hot sun for a bag of ice and a dozen water bottles. They are irate that no one has come to feed them yet. This is the next DAY! There has been days of warning. What were they going to eat and drink if the hurricane didn’t come? People have become accustomed to being taken care of.”

More evidence of the mentality that will kill this country-the “I don’t have to do it, it’s someone else’s job to”…take care of me, my kids, my parents etc mentality of a large number of people. I have seen this over and over-ask any school nurse about this. And it raises an ethical question- do we/government need to prepare for these people, knowing there will be any number of people who can, but won’t prepare for themselves? Is our responsibility as a nation/state/county/community? I am torn on this issue.

Eccles – at 11:57

I think it is perhaps a test of one’s moral compass. As a matter of standard preparedness, I keep in stock sufficient Potassium Iodate for my family should a radiation release event ever occur. I have tried in the past to convince some parents that they should keep some on hand to protect their children, who are the single most vulnerable population to radionuclides. I was met with denail and blank stares.

So now, I keep in stock a bottle of 100 potassium iodate caplets specifically to be handed to those neighbors at the moment such becomes necessary. it is enough to protect several youngsters for 2 weeks. How they deal with it after that is up to them. But again, I’d rather help out some, if I can, than sit back callously and watch them suffer the results of their own folly.

Grace RN – at 12:04

Thank you; I bought Iosat, KI, for my family-it’s in their emergency backpacks. Did you buy the large quantity at the same site?

Lisa B – at 15:13

I live within a 10 mile radius of a nuclear power plant. Two weeks ago I went to the county health department to get my flu shot and while I was there, I asked the nurse administering the shot if they give out potassium iodate to residents within the 10 mile radius ( during my research one of the government sites said many county health departments will give out the tablets on request to have on hand). The nurses reply was “what’s that”. I said it was the pills you should take when a nuclear incident happens to block your thyroid. She said “ oh those pills. We would give them out once the department authorized if the incident warranted it. You would be directed to drive to the next county and we’ll let you know where the meeting place will be. When you get there, we’ll make the decision to give them out or not. Ok, so I’m thinking, IT ONLY WORKS IF YOU TAKE IT RIGHT AWAY!!!!!!! Long story short, I got my shipment from nitro-pak a couple of days ago. I’m not taking any chances!

Eccles 11:57 : Thank you for bringing it to my attention to buy extra in case there are any children playing at my house. Doing that today.

Eccles – at 16:41

The Iodate story was meant as an example of how to deal with lack of preparedness of those around you. Many entries ago, I mentioned on the “Violence” thread that instead of shooting at an approaching neighbor, I would first offer some food that I have stocked over and above immediate need. That may enable you to have additional assistance instead of an additional adversary.

As for iodide, there are two biologically active forms you can use, Potassium Iodide and Potassium Iodate. Either one will provide clean iodine to your thyroid in the event of an approaching claoud of radioactives, but

YOU MUST TAKE IT BEFORE FIRST EXPOSURE TO RADIO-IODINE

Thus it is one of those sensible precautions that should be in everyones stock. While I haven’t checked things out in a while, The most medically “main stream” purveyor of KI (iodide) pills is Iosat. They come in neat, expensive dose packs.

I have chosen to stock, in addition, Potassium Iodate from www.prnmed.com. It comes in bottles of like 100 or 200 (I forget) and its pretty cheap. It is cheap enough to keep several bottles around for your own use, give some to family members with children and then have some spare to give away as necessary.

While a bit OT, I think this comes under the general heading of emergency preps.

Pirategrl – at 19:25

luv2cmwork – at 17:37 “Somebody will have to have their appendix out, yes. In the last year, how many people that you know, have had theirs out? How many people that you know have had to have their power lines fixed? Any? One…maybe two?”

My answer: Hundreds

But I respond to emergencies for a living so perhaps I have a different perspective. I KNOW that the “what ifs” are not imaginary, they happen all day everyday and one day they will happen to you or me. As I see it considering “what ifs” doesn’t cause panic, it causes planning. People only panic if they have no plan and don’t know what to do.

luv2cmwork – at 17:37 “I know our water guy (one guy, in a small town) personally. He has no college degree, nor any special pre-requisite training (other than plumbing). He has trained on the job. I’m sure, he tests water periodically, with idiot proof tests. And I’m guessing, that he treats the water accordingly. But I dont’ believe its rocket science. He works for a company, that employees other such trained people, that I’m sure, must know our system when he is on vacation.”

Okay, how many “other employees” do they have with that same training? Do any of them live nearby so that they could actualy get to your water plant with a quarantine in place?

I assume that this company has more than one client - cities and towns of various sizes…If that one guy, your water plant’s entire staff, is down with flu and 20 to 50% of the company’s additional employees are sick are you certain that faced with a significantly reduced workforce the company will send someone to your small town rather than to a larger client? My personal experience has been that the “big account” always gets service first and the little folks have to wait.

Also, it sounds like your town must have a naturally relatively clean water supply and thus can operate on a fairly simple treatment system run by one guy. You are lucky.

One of my siblings works for the state water dept. where the water is pretty bad all the time and requires repeated testing throughout the day and regular adjustments made to deal with fluctuating contaminant problems. These tests are analyzed by a computer in one office and the results phoned in to another office where they are typed into a different system. If the guy typing hits a wrong number or skips a decimal point or such other tiny error, the water is not safe to drink. In a heavy rain, all hell breaks loose in the treatment system as sewage gets washed into the drinking water sources.

The state does not outsource its water employees. My sib IS the one guy that the water station operators can call to get answers to emergency treatment questions - he has 2 science degrees and additional specialty training. He has tried for several years to get people trained as back ups for him, but has been told that the state cannot afford to hire more people with his level of education. All of the people above him in the system are political appointees with zero water science training so he can’t kick a problem up to the boss. He regularly goes to work sick if it is a rainy day because he knows there will be problems. If he was unable to do his job, they would have to get someone in from another state that has a similar water system to replace him. He has small kids at home and does not plan to go to work in a pandemic situation…he has told his boss this flat out, but the state has made no back up plans. So yeah, I would be prepared to at least boil water.

luv2cmwork – at 17:37 “My bigger concern is money. If people aren’t working as you suggest, how will they pay their mortages? My money, is being used by you to buy your house and you’ll pay it back when you can(all done through the bank). What if you can’t pay it back? What if many can’t? What happens to my money? Is it gone? Will you be forced to sell your house and get half of what I gave you to buy it? So I get 50 cents on the dollar? People will work, because they will HAVE to!! Otherwise, the system falls apart. Again that didn’t happen in 1918 and suspect it will not happen this time.”

OKay, I don’t a have mortgage, so I am not using your money, but I realize that other people might be. I imagine what will happen in this situation will be a similar thing as was done after Katrina…FannieMae and other lenders were forced by the financial disaster to suspend payment collection for 3 months, reduce payments after that for up to 18 months and extend loan terms for additional years. Federal payment assistance was also available, loans, tax breaks etc. And yeah,if many can’t pay and the financial system tanks yes, some of your your money will be gone. BUT everyone will be in the same boat. If such a situation is very wide spread, then yup, you may loose a ton of money because there will be no choice but for the government to forgive debts. just like they do for foreign countires that can’t repay aid.

Keep in mind that if a pandemic turns out to be that bad then everyone, richest to poorest will be affected across the board. Someone suggested on another thread that in a bad pandemic the number of people who die and no longer need to eat may be enough to cover the people who don’t die but didn’t store any food.

Well, such a balance would apply to work and money too.

If enough people die or become disabled, then the lenders will have to be as accomadating as possible to the survivors if they want to get any money back at all.

There will be more than enough jobs left afterwards for suvivors to be employed again if they lost a job. There would be significant employee loss in all professions. You would probably have your pick of jobs and employers will have to offer good pay and benefits to compete for remaining workers AND money lenders only make cash when they lend money so they will be more than happy to make new loans to flu survivors.

Then one thing that the government CAN do is prop up “the system” after a disaster. They have many tools to do so and WILL do so because as you pointed out if they don’t keep things going financially, the system will collapse. So the feds will be forced to forgive/reduce corporate debt, the corporations will be forced to forgive/reduce personal debts and the system keeps rolling.

I don’t owe any money, have cash in the bank and goods to trade with others if need be. I have marketable skills in several fields including a number of “essential” jobs. So I don’t think money will be the biggest problem. At least not from my perspective.

Name – at 20:03

Lisa B, excellent post! We have indeed become a spoiled society and that is the main thing that makes us more vulnerable than in 1918. Much of your description was very familiar as I spent many years in the Caribbean where hurricane hits (or scares) were an annual thing, and it’s astonishing how many people totally ignore the threat anyway. Why?

Those who want to encourage our fellow citizens to “get with the program”, will need to clearly understand what the various obstacles are in order to address them. What I truly hope for is a long enough intermediate period that raises awareness and allows people to catch up before this hits us.

Lisa B – at 22:16

Name: I sure hope you’re right. I was astonished after Wilma hit. Wilma came only a few weeks after Katrina and Rita. The news was dominated with the effects of those storms. Everyone should have been over prepared, right? People were actually saying they want an investigation into the Red Cross because the workers were not working hard enough. Hello!!! The Red Cross hires volunteers. They are doing the best they can. People can be so ungrateful. If you are truly in need of food and water, you should be happy to get it right? People drive up for mre’s and water to be loaded in the car and they are in BMWs and jaguars and applying for the emergency food stamps that do not need income verification. This should be reserved for the working poor. The people on assistance are already provided with food through food stamps and WIC(been there done that). The rich can provide for themselves( been there done that). The middle class are trying to live like the rich so paychecks don’t really cut it but credit cards and home equity loans have been helpful(briefly suffered through that). The working poor are the ones we need to watch out for and help(one step forward and one step back syndrome). But how do you educate that sector or even provide food as a community. I went to Sam’s Club a few weeks ago and bought a giant box of rice, giant bag of pintos, big tomato sauces, 6 pounds of spaghetti. It cost me $23. Add some water and a few other do dads and you have a cheap weeks worth of food to store. Walmart wasn’t much more expensive. There is really no excuse for not having at least a few days worth of food. This is what would have been in a pantry in 1918. I just don’t get it I guess. I watched all the storm events in horror and became more prepared than usual. I’m not sure exactly what it will take to jump start the learning process.

This post may be disjointed. Too many interruptions.

Michelle – at 22:20

Lisa B - thank you for that posting. It definitely grounded me and you are right. I completely agree with you.

24 May 2006

DemFromCTat 07:20

need to close thread due to volume on servers

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