The forum has discussed what signals to look for to indicate the beginning of an H2H pandemic. I would propose that we also be prepared to look for signs that a pandemic is not going to occur; at least in the immediate (say 6 month) future. I understand that flu pandemics have and will occur but it might be usefull to be able to “tone down” the alert level from time to time if that is indeed warrented. For example, say we are in March and no human HPAI cases have been reportred anywhere in the world for 3 months and bird cases are few and far between. What are the chances of an pandemic in the Spring-Summer timeframe? (would think rather low). I suspect that the population at large would naturally assume the danger is past because it is no longer in the news cycle. But I would suggest the the hypervigilant types that tend to contribute to this forum might not be so optimistic. I’m no expert but wouldn’t the situation I describe indicate a more optimistic immediate future? You know, a chance to take a breath? To use an anaolgy with the USA’s DEFENSE CONDITION rediness status, would most fluwiki types (I include myself) prefer to stay at defcon 3 or 2?
DEFCON 5 Normal peacetime readiness DEFCON 4 Normal, increased intelligence and strengthened security measures DEFCON 3 Increase in force readiness above normal readiness DEFCON 2 Further Increase in force readiness, but less than maximum readiness DEFCON 1 Maximum force readiness.
Let’s call if FLUCON1 thru FLUCON5. My point is that even in peacetime a nation has a normal defensive posture but it is not necessarily at any highened alert. I for one have taken the possibility of a pandemic seriously and as a wake-up call in terms of general preparation for whatever but don’t plan to stay in freak-out mode forever. What about the rest of you?
Brillant idea. A flu pandemic will either happen or it will become less probable with time. It makes sense to strenthen or relax our readiness in response to the threat level. I also am well prepared for the worst but this hyper FLUCON1- 2 mindset is not healthy longterm, if a flu pandemic threat is reduced.
If a pandemic is based on random mutation, reassortment and recombination, how can you possibly predict our “alert level”?
informatic: Exactly. Not saying things aren’t happening right now. Information in the link you provided would need to be factored into any “objective” estimation of risk. Just suggesting someone - perhaps Fluwikies moderators - index these occurence in terms of a rational scale that the average person might understand as events unfold. A scale of condern if you will. Niman may be an alarmist, a prophet or something in between. Obviously an extremely bright man whose opinions must be considered. But he is one voice. Weigh it.
maryrose: If a pandemic is based on random mutation, reassortment and recombination, how can you possibly predict our “alert level”?
I don’t know. Just know that the WHO is probably too conservative in its scale and others (no names) are too alarmist. Guess one could just split the difference but for example as I initially suggested, since flu pandemics don’t occur in June then mabe that would be one objective factor to lower the level. It’s just an idea. I guess no one would like to be responsible for underestimating the dangers involved. But as an informal non professional group the wiki could certainly make an attempt to “split the difference” in a meaningful way. No careers are on the line.
(Didn’t the 1918 pandemic start in August in the N.hemisphere? Wikipedia: …”1918–1919. Began in August 1918 in three disparate locations: Brest, Boston, Massachusetts and Freetown. An unusually severe and deadly strain of influenza spread worldwide. The disease spread across the world, killing 25 million in the course of six months; some estimates put the total of those killed worldwide at over twice that number. An estimated 17 million died in India, 500,000 in the United States and 200,000 in the UK. It vanished within 18 months )
I was wondering how people would know a wave was “over” in their area, and will we have any way to know/guess how soon subsequent waves will appear…I suppose it depends on how case reporting/communications are going, after the end of the first wave.
Risk Assessment Separate from Risk Management
“Internationally, influenza risk assessment and risk management are separate functions. WHO makes risk assessments in the form of annual recommendations on influenza vaccine composition. Nations may elect to accept WHO findings and recommendations or to have their own risk assessment bodies that incorporate WHO findings. Risk management, on the other hand, is the exclusive responsibility of national governments. Independent expert bodies may make recommendations, but risk management ultimately is a political process, performed and funded by federal and state governments.”
Nationally, risk assessment should also be a separate scientific function, free from influence by perceived risk-management resource constraints, organizational capacities, or political aspirations. Pandemic risk management, itself an uncertain art, must independently weigh ongoing risk-assessment findings in the context of actions that best serve national and international interests.
need to close thread due to volume on servers