H5N1 G228S Acquisition from European Swine
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160603/H5N1_H1N1_G228S.html
At this point your statement is about a prediction you are making about this acquisition.
The G228S acquisition has not yet actually occurred, has it?
Dr Niman, Are all of these isolates with the appropriate donor sequences still present?
How could be know with certainty if it has recombined at this time? Dr. Niman is certainly making a prediction that human receptor affinity will be on the increase.
Dr. Niman wouldn’t PREDICT a polymorphism that is already on file in the GenBank or from another source, so we must now wait and see what happens.
Again, I’ll ask Dr. Niman for his rough estimation … at what juncture or under what conditions, do you see the human population becoming a significant vector or incubator for recombination? When we do become co-infected hosts, are there any potential accelerations in genetic acquisition that you expect? In what categories would you expect PF51 to advance given a significant population of walking co-infected human laboratories? What categories of genetic acquisition most concern you … transmissibility or pathogenicity? Are you an early contrarian on topics other than the two pillers of influenza research, migratory spread and WHO spin control?
We wait and watch.
Dr. Niman,
Do you hold to a philosophy that all of the important polymorphisms of concern will be zoonotic or do you feel that just the the early transfers of concern will originate in animals and then start a potential cascade of worrying human-incubated polymorphs?
Dr. Niman,
Any chance that you would agree with the supposition that the human organism today may be the most ideal host for viral recombination.
A) We house an extensive complex genome replete with “introned” retroviral sequences. Lots of material? B) We are at the top of the food chain with all of the requisite advantages and disadvantages, such as bioaccumulation of free dna/rna of our food sources (many GE with promotors) and intensification of anti-biotic pressures internally due to ubiquitous exposure via foods, cleaners, containers, et al. C) We have generally weakened immune operation due to malnourishment. D) We live in close quarters generally with constant low intensity radiation exposure. E) Our uptake and bioaccumulation of toxins is at an all time high with many human organisms testing at rates that would qualify them as a Superfund biohazard site. Many humans test with significant ppm of more than 100 known toxins.
Ergo, we have extensive material and multi-factorial pressures.
KyJack and Dr. Niman -
Is the specification of donor isolates strictly from the GenBank database entries or is more information regarding persistence on file somewhere? OIE reports? ProMed?
Which of the isolates are likely to have conserved the donor sequence if they are endemic now?
Is there a reliable method or organization that measures if these strains are endemic?
H1N1 is endmic in swine in Europe. The donor sequences go through the most recent isolates at GenVank (which only go up to 2002, but there is no reason to think that they have changed).
Are swine isolates like H1N1 more stable or more conserved than these more aggressive strains we are discussing like H5N1 that is changing regularly?
Dr. Niman and moderators -
Would you mind if we combined this thread with Niman IV since we had announced and concluded earlier for many who are following that the Dr. Niman’s prediction would begin the Niman IV thread?
Is it possible to combine them without sorting the dates and times together?
H1N1 in swine seems to evolve much more slowly than in humans. Here is more info on polymorphism combinations
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160604/H5N1_Receptor_Affinity.html
Niman -
Is it also likely that H3 will provide some of the donor sequences for G228S?
Do you predict that 227N next to 228S is worse than either one alone? Or are you predicting a more diverse group of isolates, some with only 227N, others with only 228S and yet others with the NS pair and that the diversity of human cell affinity will become the problem due to a more robust set of Influenza organisms?
lots of swine in China too, why are European swine more dangerous ?
What says the “mainstream” to Niman’s prediction ? Revere ? Dem ?
gs -
Maybe EuroSwine just happen to be in the FlightPath at this time?
NS1,time is no vector. H5N1 had had ample opportunity in China already, or not ? (West-)European swine are usually kept in large farms, not as “pets” as in China. Contacts with birds are rare and outbreaks don’t remain undetected. Swine don’t travel, except for slaughtering. Slaughtering is done by special companies
It seems i remember some sort of outbreak in southern china related to swine mid to late 2005. The explination offered by the chinese goverment was largely viewed with skeptisism. As the disease reported as the cuase had never been known to be as severe in humans. If i rember correctly the effects of the disease seemed very close to what is being reported as the effects of bird flu. Is this some how related?. I would be thankfull for any information or imput. Thanks for your time.
jack -
clinicals matched somewhat, but we’ll never know? Watch the US Eastern Seaboard, Sweden & Denmark closely for the next few months.
gs -
Small-scale porcine husbandry is widely practiced in Europe. Innumerable studies show efficient transfer of intestinal flora to farm workers and farm families, so viral transfer is also expected. A large % of infected animals are asymptomatic, hence infectivity can occur ‘undetected’. Families that keep pigs usually keep chickens.
Time is by definition a component of a vector. I am argueing only that proximity creates opportunity. One bird + one pig in one place at ONE TIME allows recombination incubation.
And let’s remember that an event not occurring yet is not a correlative to the event never occurring.
I didn’t trip on my shoelaces this week, but tomorrow I may wear shoes with laces? One left foot + one left foot on one lace at ONE TIME allows recombination pendulation.
NS1-it’s interesting that you mentioned the US Eastern Seaboard. I just attended a NJ Hospital Assoc pandemic flu planning session this week, and they predicted H5N1 first coming to the US via the West COast/Alaska; no mention was made of the East Atlantic Migratory Pathway. One speaker also used a worst case scenario CFR of 1–1.5%, which he said was the CFR of the 1918 Panflu. (Not!) And the closing speaker said to wait for news that it’s gone H2H2H2H before stockpiling 4–5 weeks of essentials despite arguements against it from the audience.
The lack of leadership across the board is frightening.
Grace: Who was the closing speaker who recommended “just-in-time” stockpiling? Not his name, his position. He should have been hooted out of the room. I don’t see how this indiividual could be of normal intelligence.
Grace: This “expert”s advice seems to contradict what is advised by the government on the pandemicflu.gov’s website. What line of authority was he citing?
The “out of Africa” reports that I’ve read specified South America as a gateway from sea birds. It may get here by plane or boat-chicken smuggling, I understand, is big business. The important point is that there are many pathways here.
For positions 227 and 228, it is posible that there will be a few relevant combinations. The acquisition of G228S uses sequences downstream from 227, so some isoaltes can have S227N and G228S, while others can have S at position 227 paired up with G228S.
H3 sequences actually have S at both positions
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02130601/H5N1_S227N_Changes_RBD.html
Niman-
Is the combination of the two s227n+g228s more of a concern than the product 227s228s?
Is 227s228s more of a concern than 227n228g?
In your current opinion, could we rank these sequences in order of most to least concern:
Most - 227n228s Some - 227s228s Some - 227n228g Least - 227s228g
Grace-
If we have to wait for the jump from animals to sustained H2H to occur in the US, I’m thinking Eastern Seaboard due to all the excellent incubation vectors in animals that have already been addressed.
Vancouver, Seattle, Portland and San Francisco would be my first picks for importing a fully active and capable PF51 that is already sustained H2H due to the origins of the ocean shipping lanes and the huge Eastern immigration/business travel counts.
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