From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Niman IV

16 February 2006

Kristy in CA – at 12:59

I went to the Niman III thread, and wasn’t able to comment, so I’m opening up a new one? Mods, I apologize if I wasn’t supposed to, but I had a question.

Dr. Niman…in your latest commentary regarding Germany, you state that its possible that H5N1 may already be here in the US.

Do you have any thoughts about the reports of birds dropping dead from the sky in Utah, Maryland, and Iowa? People are writing this off as Avian Cholrea. Even people here, preppers, are saying its just that.

I for one, do not feel settled in that explanation.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160601/H5N1_Germany_Fall .html

Michael Donnelly – at 18:33

New Niman release at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160603/H5N1_H1N1_G228S.html

very scary stuff.

‘’Prior studies have shown that a polymorphism at the adjacent position, G228S, also increases the affinity for human receptors, which would lead to increased efficiency of H5N1 infections of humans. Analysis of the Loa Alamos or Genbank influenza sequences on deposit has identified donor sequences in swine in Europe. All are H1, and all but one is H1N1. The isolates with appropriate donor sequences are listed below.

Since recombination between H5N1 can lead to the acquisition of G228S, there is cause for concern that the resulting recombinant would have increased affinity for human receptors, leading to more efficient transmission.’‘

So I guess this is H5N1’s spring bride?

DemFromCTat 19:01

Niman III was only closed because of getting long and stale. Niman IV is for anyone who wants to comment. we still expect dr. Niman to post his predictions.

Petergunn – at 20:08

Dr Nimans lack of recent Fluwiki postings is cause for concern

NJ Preppie – at 20:19

Niman started the G228S thread at about the same time this was started, same link news, about swine in Europe. Does he favor the Quinghai strain in Europe to go H2H, over the Indonesian strain? What are the mutation difference on the virolent strain in the latest Java cases? How long does it take to see the newest sequences?

NS1 – at 21:14

NJPreppie -

The reasonable question of “how long” sadly must be tempered with the practical question of “When will they cooperate and publish?”

As Dr. Niman says frequently additional sequence data “would be useful.”

Petergunn -

We are all looking for postings. Please don’t lay additional burden on someone who appears to be using his time well in study and development of theoretical platforms. May I suggest for all of us that as an intermediate during times of information paucity, that we study the previous posts and the work of the reveres and others to get a balanced view and to fill our knapsacks with knowledge. If this thing accelerates, you’ll be faced with all kinds of outlandish explantions and drives to action, many that you’ll be able to rapidly discount if you enjoy the reflection allowed by mastering the content and settling the context.

dubina – at 23:13

NS1,

Should we be sad that they haven’t published, or angry? In my mind, the word “sad” attends resignation. I’m not resigned to such scandalous performance. We should expect better.

What possible reasons might account for these delays?

niman – at 23:39

More sequences would be useful. The list of swine donor sequences only goes to 2002, but that is because there are no H1N1 swine sequences after 2002. The same goes for many areas. A fuller database allows for more accurate predictions. H5N1 is VERY predictable, but much of the predictions are dependent on a full database (and there is certainly H1 in swine in circulation worldwide).

NS1 – at 23:41

No crude oil for refinement to make the gasoline to run the land rover to drive the tissue to ad nauseum. Maybe the sequencers failed to report? All explanations are vain.

“Sad” attends the facts. No workable explanation can be found or manufactured. We do expect better. All mankind does expect better; however, the facets of mankind driving these critical processes have lost their way.

17 February 2006

dubina – at 00:02

I’m not resigned to that. Some people in charge ought to be asked to clean out their desks and take a hike. Every day we endure said lost authority could be another day closer to peril.

In military aviation, in situations of impending peril, the pilot has a choice: eject or die. It’s a willful thing, positive and very decisive. Do we linger in this defective organization or leave it behind?

niman – at 01:04

More explanation in addional commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160604/H5N1_Receptor_Affinity.html

dubina – at 01:25

niman,

I’m confused by several posts regarding “the new bride and baby”.

At one point, it seemed to be about the current H5 encountering H7 (in Europe, in Springtime, I thought). Then, the focus seemed to go to H1, again in Europe.

Now, I gather the wedding’s still likely, but the bride / baby are up in the air.

Having looked through the NIH database, I see most its H7 samples by far were taken from North America and Europe.

NS1 – at 02:48

Dubina -

Eject! Too bad we’d just land in hostile territory without PJs dispatched. Who’s on our side . . . not the WHO, not those who control staffing at WHO, not those who fund WHO, not those who close there eyes to WHO? Secure your kit, be man-portable, conserve and recon.

Niman answered some questions earlier about H7 on older versus newer H7 isolates, but I don’t think H7 is in his current discussion prediction.

I’m concerned about the H7 in greyhounds in the US for the past two years . . . 10,000 dogs. And the current debacle of respiratory problems in the equine community. Those should be followed carefully.

Niman has shown that H1N1/swine is the predicted bride and that the baby will have G228S acquisitioned. So some of the H5N1 will conserve the N at 227 and gain G228S while others may S at 227, but still gain the G228S.

Dav – at 04:13

Recombinomics is issuing a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued on October 22nd, 2005, this new alteration will increase the virus’ affinity for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The company has notified the WHO of its prediction and warning regarding the near term likelihood of this genetic alteration occurring.

http://www.recombinomics.com/PR/021706.html

VandyRNat 12:04

Is it possible Dr. Niman to give us a window of time(loosely of course!) of what you see as “the near term likelihodd of this genetic mutation occuring?” Or would that similar to trying to herd cats? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

dubina – at 13:44

More to that, if the H1 Bride seems more likely than the H7 Bride, how much more likely? In gsian terms…

…H1 Bride = x %

…H7 Bride = y %

…”other” Brides = z %

(x + y + z = 1)

niman – at 15:36

The most likely recombination is between H5N1 in wild birds and H1N1 in European swine. The birds will be coming back to Europe in large numbers in several weeks. When they arrive in numbers, it should take just a few weeks for the recombination to happen, and then a few weeks or months for the human infections to be acknowledged.

For S227N, the first human cases were then end of December. The migration into the area was mostly in October.

Scaredy Cat – at 16:00

Dr. Niman,

Since H5N1 is being reported in wild birds in Europe now, could the recombination you’ve predicted be taking place now?

Michael Donnelly – at 18:06

OK, pardon me for suggesting the obvious, but doesn’t this lead us to expect that we could prevent or at least delay an outbreak of this new strain by immunizing all the swine in Europe? Or at least by isolating them? Or maybe even by culling them all?

niman – at 18:26

if i were you i would prepare now.

dubina – at 19:23

Michael,

Speaking only for myself, what you say opens an interesting set of possibilities.

Recall the question: what event or events would cause the world to pay needed attention to bird flu?

Dr. Niman called the S227N polymorphism some months in advance of its finding in Turkey.

Now, with considerably more fanfare, he’s called G228S acquisition sometime several months from now. He’s said the H5N1 is highly predictable when many others say its entirely unpredictable.

Will the EU undertake to immunize its many swine herds based on Niman’s prediction? Being a highly visible and not inconsiderable financial proposition, I think probably not. (I could be wrong.) But if the EU doesn’t order EU pig farmers to share their houses with their pigs…and…niman’s prediction then comes to pass, what will happen?

Niman, as others here, is doing public service, and, hand in glove, has something to sell. His Recombinomics Press Release of 02/17/2006 reports his “…proprietary approach (that) predicts these changes and identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccine in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains”.

Moreover, “Recombinomics is in the process of commercializing its patent-pending approach to significantly improve the standard vaccine development process.”

“Recombinomics, through its analysis and commentary section of its website (http://www.recombinomics.com ), has been consistently ahead of both the scientific community and government agencies in anticipating the genetic evolution and geographic expansion of H5N1.”

What I think will happen is that EU won’t take action to immunize EU swine, Niman’s prediction will prove out, panic to mini-panic will ensue depending on the pathological effects of the G228S acquisition, and Henry Niman’s technical opinions will dominate vaccine development for years to come.

If a window of opportunity still exists between niman’s “Spring Bride” and the onset of Pandemic Influenza, hasty efforts will be devoted to cell-culture vaccines, including any he may have already formulated. (I’ll outline several possibilities in my next post to this thread.)

Henry Niman is a clever man. I think he reads our current predicament with exceptional clarity, and, seeing it as it seems to be, has charted a possible course to overcome it. Think of looking many plies into a multidimensional chess game and seeing checkmate.

I don’t have niman’s insight, but I do know enough about the game to know the mate described above could collapse as other factors come into play. Nevertheless, the next few months could be interesting to say the least.

{Full text of Recombinomics Press Release of 02/17/2006}

Recombinomics Inc. Predicts a New Genetic Change in the H5N1 (Avian Flu) Virus

PITTSBURGH, Feb. 17 /PRNewswire/ — Recombinomics is issuing a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued on October 22nd, 2005, this new alteration will increase the virus’ affinity for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The company has notified the WHO of its prediction and warning regarding the near term likelihood of this genetic alteration occurring.

In October, Recombinomic’s prediction/warning was based upon H5N1 entering the Middle East via migratory birds, where another avian influenza, H9N2 was endemic. Recombinomics, utilizing its patent pending approach, predicted that the H gene in H5N1 would exchange genetic information with the H gene in H9N2 and would acquire the genetic change S227N (also called S223N). This alteration had been previously shown to increase the affinity of H5N1 for human receptors. In late December 2005, the first human infections by the Qinghai strain of H5N1 were reported in Turkey. S227N was detected in the index case for that outbreak with six additional cases confirmed four of whom died.

Today, Recombinomics is predicting a similar change in the adjacent position of the H5N1 virus’ receptor binding domain. The donor sequences are again on the H, but in H1N1 European swine sequences. The new genetic change, G228S, has also been previously shown to increase the affinity for human receptors. Like H9N2 in the Middle East, H1N1 is endemic in swine populations in Europe. Infection by H5N1 in H1N1 infected swine will allow the viruses to exchange genetic information via recombination and allow H5N1 to acquire S228N. The region of identity between H5N1 and H1N1 is downstream from the S227N position, so H5N1, with and without the S227N change, can acquire this new sequence. This sequence acquisition by the H5N1 virus will also lead to more efficient transmission to humans.

H5N1 is migrating into areas where it is encountering unique influenza sero-types it has not encountered while largely confined to Asia over the past few years. This expanded geographical reach allows H5N1 to exchange genetic material with novel donor sequences, which under the appropriate selection pressures, enables the genetic changes to become fixed in the genome of the virus. H5N1 is in the process of acquiring genetic information that allows for more efficient infections of humans”, said Recombinomics President, Dr. Henry Niman.

H5N1, like most rapidly evolving viruses, uses homologous recombination to create novel genes that enhance the ability of the virus to evolve and remain competitively viable. Recombinomics’ proprietary approach predicts these changes and identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccine in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains.

About Recombinomics, Inc. — The Company was founded by Dr. Henry Niman, a former Scripps Institute Assistant Member, based on his pioneering work in the area of viral evolution. Dr. Niman’s research identified recombination as the underlying mechanism driving rapid genetic change, allowing him to file a series of patents based on a deep understanding of this paradigm shifting process. Recombinomics is in the process of commercializing its patent-pending approach to significantly improve the standard vaccine development process.

Recombinomics, through its analysis and commentary section of its website (http://www.recombinomics.com ), has been consistently ahead of both the scientific community and government agencies in anticipating the genetic evolution and geographic expansion of H5N1.

Anastasia – at 19:25

For the past two weeks a little voice inside has been whispering to me that the panflu has already begun. I keep ignoring it, because I presume we would have already heard. But, the other day one of the posters here mentioned that in 1918 it didn’t arrive with a bang, but with a whimper (I’m paraphrasing). Is that what you are implying here, Dr. Niman?

niman – at 19:32

The highest probability of acquisition of receptor binding domain changes that increase the affinity for human receptors is in donor sequences in H1N1 infected swine in Europe, and those acquisitions could be happening now because of the H5N1 in the area

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2005_QinghaiL.html

However, H7 sequences from Europe also have had donor sequences for E190D

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160604/H5N1_Receptor_Affinity.html

H7N7 has just been isolated from the region. H5N1 is looking for mates, and there may be several willing participants. (H5N7 reassortants have also been isolated previously from Denmark).

Anastasia – at 19:36

So, obviously, you disagree with the majority of experts who believe the panflu will arise from the Indonesian stew?

Dav – at 19:42

1. Birds infect pigs and pigs re-infect birds:

link

2. I don’t think it is just the birds we have to worry about:

Transmission between humans and pigs

Early theories suggesting the transmission of virus from pigs to humans resulted in the 1918 pandemic were at the time speculative and it was not until 1976 that further evidence for such transmissions became available. Pigs were implicated as the source of infection when an H1N1 virus was isolated from a soldier who had died of influenza at Fort Dix, New Jersey, USA. The virus was identical to viruses isolated from pigs in the USA

Furthermore, five other servicemen were shown to be infected by virus isolation, and serological evidence suggested that some 500 personnel at Fort Dix were, or had been, infected with the same virus

http://www.pighealth.com/influenzaB.htm

Michael Donnelly – at 20:07

Thanks, dubina, you have answered a question I’ve had: what is Henry Niman selling? Other than the obvious answer (“himself”) he’s looking to build influence and gain control of a portion of vaccine production, by dominating the front end—discovery. Now I understand why, in the midst of all his very important work, he appears to think its important that he post all over the place—fluwikie, effectmeasure, curevents, avian flu talk, etc etc. Where does a guy like that, who does such important work, find the time to put all those posts up on the web? Well perhaps he has an assistant do it in his name, but all the same, he is apparently using these fora strategically, to build influence.

If this is the correct conclusion, I have a very mixed reaction. On the one hand, if his theory if correct, then more power to him. He can do whatever the hell he likes, quite frankly, if it means he’s going to be in a position to play a role in preventing millions of deaths. Heck, if he takes recombinomics public, I may stand in line to invest.

On the other hand, I esteem those who like to do science just for the sake of satisfying their own need to understand the natural world. But then I guess the story of science is filled with characters like this. It’s just that Niman is working in a new context. Perhaps if Galileo had been alive today, The Starry Messenger would have appeared as press releases on his blog at http://www.heliocentronomics.com .

De jure – at 20:13

Dr. Niman, how are you able to provide all of these detailed, lengthy commentaries and organize all of these links? I noticed you are the president of your company, but do you have others who are collecting data for you? providing analyses? updating maps? How are you able to promulgate all of these findings (surely not on your own)?

Melanie – at 20:13

Folks,

Now that the wiki is fully operational again, would y’all promise to spend five minutes this weekend learning how to make links so that pogge and the editors don’t have to spend all of their time fixing side scroll? Please? The instructions are at the bottom of each page and, believe me, if I can learn to do it, anyone can.

Anastasia – at 20:29

Okay, I’m relatively new to all this, and I know a lot of you more experienced flu folks have said that Dr. Niman has made many incorrect predictions, but has he ever before said anything like: “If I were you, I would prepare now”?

This is a sincere, not argumentive, question. I know a lot of folks here have been irritated with him for not coming right out and making a “when” prediction. Here is has done it. Is it the first time or does he do this often?

dubina – at 20:38

European H7N7 accessions from NIH Online Database

Germany: 20 H7N7 accessions, 1 in 2001, 9 in 2003

Iceland: 1 H7N7 accession in 1980

Ireland: 3 H7N7 accessions subsequent to 1989

Italy: 3 H7N7 accessions, all in 1902

Netherlands: 44 H7N7 accessions, 43 of the 44 in 2003

Sweden: 14 H7N7 accessions, all in 2002

United Kingdom: 22 H7N7 accessions, only 1 subsequent to 1995

No record of recent Danish H7N5 accessions in NIH Online Database

186 other European H7 accessions (N1,N2, N3 and N9) in NIH Online Database

Medical Maven – at 20:41

Anastasia: I have followed Niman for many months both at this site and his site. This is the first time that he has made that type of warning to my knowledge.

It could be that he thinks one (or two) of these European acquisitions could kick off a pandemic. Or it could be that he thinks the acquisitions will kick H5N1 up to a higher stage and that may get people in a crazy, stockpiling mode. Either way I would pay attention. Niman isn’t doing this for giggles.

Anastasia – at 20:43

Maven: Thanks for responding.

Scaredy Cat – at 20:47

Michael Donnelly - “On the other hand, I esteem those who like to do science just for the sake of satisfying their own need to understand the natural world. “

I think we would all esteem people like that, but realistically speaking, how many people can afford to work for free? I think the fact that Niman may have something to sell should be part of his credibility equation, but that alone should not invalidate his opinion.

As far as the time he spends posting on different forums (a most tiresome complaint), I notice a lot of other posters here have full-time jobs. So obviously both can be done. Besides, assuming he has a valuable contribution to make (and even if he does not), how else is he going to be heard? Hardly anyone else, at least thus far, is paying attention. And even to experts in virology, etc., Niman is controversial. So the dramatics and the postings are almost necessary for him to garner attention. And regardless of any money he stands to make (something we usually admire), he is offering insights and information that could help save many lives.

DemFromCTat 20:51

Well, he did suggest we might be in stage 6 in July based on Boxun reports from China, and stage 4 or 5 because of Indonesia in September. And here we are. Here’s a quote from September:

“Instead, words of assurance are issued to the press and official counts bury the human-to-human transmissions and maintain a pandemic stage 3 when clearly the level is at 4 or 5 and will soon be phase 6.”

Is this true or false? Well, there’s lots of arguments here about whether we’re stage 4. We’re not currently in stage 5. What’s the definition of soon? The prediction is from September.

I’m not trying to be argumentative, either. I worry about Indonesia and I worry about clusters. But you asked.

dubina – at 20:54

Michael,

What you say is mostly right. Niman is selling something, but don’t sell him short for that. If he’s right, see him doing what seems to be the most logical thing he can do to save the world.

Imagine the political pressure this puts on the WHO, the EU, the UN et. alia to put their houses in order. Everybody in the world with an ounce of concern for the threat of panflu will be watching this prediction like, um…hawks. Every variation on the scenario I spun out above puts more pressure on a status quo that doesn’t want to know and wouldn’t be moved by dynamite. so I think this could be very useful if it doesn’t end in some ironic tragedy.

Henry’s betting the proverbial ranch at a time when most risk communicators are communicating the risks of overreaction, not underreaction. Thank god for what he could be up to.

Anastasia – at 20:55

Dem: Thank you, too, for responding. I am just trying to understand it all…

DemFromCTat 21:01

most risk communicators are communicating the risks of overreaction, not underreaction

dubina, that you just made up. When you say ‘most’ you mean most that don’t agree with you. There are plenty of risk communicators, including here, on Oprah and at the UN (Nabarro) who are striving for more balance than you give them credit for.

Dav – at 21:10

Anastasia, I too am a newcomer here but I have been following Dr Nimans comments closely since I started lurking.

I totally agree with Medical Maven’s comments.

Niman: “if i were you i would prepare now”

This is the green light for me. (better to be fully prepared and have a false positive than sitting on my ass and have a false negative)

petperson – at 21:20

I believe Dr. Niman identified the virus in greyhounds, canine influenza, as H3N8. >>>I’m concerned about the H7 in greyhounds in the US for the past two years . . . 10,000 dogs. And the current debacle of respiratory problems in the equine community. Those should be followed carefully.

petperson – at 21:28

I note with much interest that many of the posts now refer to the “bride” and the “baby” and I believe one of Niman’s posts refered to “mating”. I think I recently also saw a post someplace suggesting the possibility that influenza virii might have “intelligence”. Do listmembers or Dr. Niman believe that this recombination activity is actually the result of an intelligence on the part of H5N1 or that the virus is consciously seeking to “mate”??

maryrose – at 21:43
maryrose – at 21:45

Bride and groom is a metaphor. As far as intelligence, it depends on how you define it.

petperson – at 21:47

At the risk of being laughed out of the wiki, let me take this line of thinking one step further. Let’s say, very hypothetically, that influenza virii do have a type of intelligence or instinct to procreate or to mate. There has been much speculation lately regarding why several members of one family died from BF while one member of the family did not contract the virus. Children have seemed to be particularly vulnerable, etc. If the virus consciously seeks to “mate”, could it perhaps only be infecting people who have some other similar influenza virus already present in their body, or could the virus be attracted to antibodies for other virii that are already present in humans or other species? Could some mechanism of this type be in play?

lbaum – at 21:48

petperson at 21:28

  interesting article in this month’s Discover on the intelligent design of viruses…

http://tinyurl.com/dlwef

anon_22 – at 21:58

“petperson at 21:28 interesting article in this month’s Discover on the intelligent design of viruses…”

You mean ‘intelligent design’ not ‘Intelligent Design’, right?

NS1 – at 22:21

Petperson -

Sorry about the H7 mistake on the dogs. I did not have the luxury of extensive time to research before answering and I recalled an early speculative article about H7 being the cause in the dogs. The hypothesis, of course, was shown incorrect and the strain is H3N8.

My concern, however, lay with several aspects of this particular strain. I particularly noted the spread and pathogenicity, CFR 6–8% in the final figures and 36% in some locales. My antennae went higher when I calculated the animals (dog/horse) normal intimate proximity to man and that many of the animals were infected and infectious with no symptoms, i.e. they were carriers.

Back to your question about viral behaviour. Sometimes we anthropromorphize, ascribe human characteristics to non-human organsims, just because it helps to communicate. Any behaviour of an organism without sentient ability, brain/thought, really can only be described as originating from design or structure of the organism and not ascribed to intelligence as we know it. A virus doesn’t make conscious decisions as we do; however, the construction of the virus bounds it within a certain set of behaviours and rules that we are only beginning to observe and quantify properly.

We can directly observe that a virus replicates well in certain damaged terrain. Think of it like this . . . if you drop seed on most hard ground and come back in 2 weeks, very few will have germinated. If you drop those same species of seeds on a parallel field that has been plowed and composted (prepared), you will see a vastly improved count of germinated plants. Any virus grows better comparatively in a weakened organism.

lbaum – at 22:46

anon-22 at 21:58

I’m not sure which distinction the article makes. Do you?

petperson – at 22:49

Using terminology associated with human intelligence does make it easier to communicate, but perhaps it limits our thinking. Insects, for example, are nonhuman life forms that have a strong instinct to procreate. They find each other even from great distances. Do we consider that a type of “intelligence”? At one time I had an interest in horticulture, and I have had interesting conversations with other horticulturists on the issue of whether plants have a type of intelligence; I have heard many anecdotal reports that would suggest they may. And there are many commercial horticultural settings - grapes come to mind - where music is played for the plants, and it is believed that the plants respond to the music. Can we therefore be certain that virii or other organisms do not possess similar attributes that we do not yet understand?

18 February 2006

Many Cats – at 00:12

petperson: NS 1 is right. Ascribing human traits to other life forms may make some concepts easier to grasp but it runs the risk of clouding the real issues at hand. Plants can “communicate” with each other in that if one is attacked by insects, it will release certain chemicals into the air. When those airborne molecules reach a nearby plant, it senses them and begins increasing the manufacture of chemicals to become more resistant to insect attack. This is a response to a chemical trigger and cannot be classified as “intelligence”. As far as the anecdotal reports you bring up, they have remained unverified in experimental settings. A virus has a small number of genes which allow it to perform certain tasks only, as a machine without any innate understanding. This is what makes the prospect of confronting it as a lethal foe chilling. I think we would all be more comfortable dealing with a “thinking” killer.

NS1 – at 01:12

I’m going to play Bach if H5N1 comes to my neighborhood, just in case.

Just Me – at 02:01

Dr. Nimen: This is a recombination question of sorts. I have a question about eating chicken, not infected chicken, but more along the line of chicken soup when you are sick. Have there been any studies about eating chicken, either infected or uninfected chicken, while having bird flu? Since the virus seems to kill chickens very quickly, would eating chicken after exposure to H5N1 make you more vunerable? Do vegetarians or people who don’t eat chicken(or any fowl)have a better chance to survive? Or perhaps there is something to the idea of chicken soup being good for you when you have flu, and it helps ward off the virus. My great grandmother, who lived through the 1918 pandemic, swore by it. Could there be some kind of recombination in people because of what they eat?

Just Me – at 02:04

Sorry, I spelled your name wrong, Dr. Niman.

ReVealat 02:41

I do not think Niman is selling anything.

Niman’s company does not appear to be incorporated anywhere in the U.S.

Based on its address, his apparently one-man company seems to be located in his home in a residential neighborhood of Pittsburgh.

He has no published board of directors, or investors, or annual report.

Thus, I do not think he is selling anything.

And “I would prepare now” does not sound more alarmist than his previous predictions, many months ago, that we are in various higher phases of a pandemic alert than Phase 3.

gs – at 03:06

giving more probability estimates would greatly enhance human communication

NS1 – at 04:49

enhanced human communication is a cause of concern.

dubina – at 05:04

ReVeal – at 02:41

“I do not think Niman is selling anything.”

I think Niman is selling many things. I wouldn’t speak to his financial motives because I don’t know what they are, but if he gets his bride and baby prediction right, I wouldn’t mind having a small share in the screenplay. That this guy might have challenged the powers that be on so many levels, and won, and by winning, possibly averted untold disaster…that would put him on the cover of TIME, dedicate bronze likenesses of him in city parks, and so on and so on. So I’d bet it’s not about money; it’s more about history, being right in a situation so fraught with opportunity, peril and denial.

I’m not pulling for the pigs, mind you, but it would make one heckuva story.

NS1 – at 05:23

WHO’s gonna play the pig?

In your screenplay?

dubina – at 05:32

No, no…not my screenplay. I just want a small percentage.

Let’s see, what about Babe? I think he hasn’t worked in a while.

NS1 – at 05:44

No, no..

WHO’s gonna play the pig.

Failure to communicate from our public health leaders (WHO) is incubating this virus just as efficiently as poultry and swine.

NS1 – at 05:46

work for a higher %, since available viewer population may be small.

dubina – at 07:01

Failure to communicate…man, you can say that again.

Immediately I cast “Babe” as the lead pig, I began to see Pig in the City a whole new way, the old animal farm gang gone bad, a really sick movie.

Creepy how that works.

dubina – at 07:04

How much does niman look like James Cromwell, I wonder.

DemFromCTat 08:14

gs – at 03:06

giving more probability estimates would greatly enhance human communication

NS1 – at 04:49

enhanced human communication is a cause of concern.

Priceless. thanks, both of you. I’m still laughing.

Owl – at 09:29

Here is another way to look at H5N1 - it is a virus but it can also be thought of as a a micro parasite. I cannot visualize a virus but I can vividly imagine a voracious micro parasite…. Sort of like micro head lice gone manic….

007 in the USA – at 20:01

“niman – at 18:26: if i were you i would prepare now.”

Henry, thank you. I proud of you that you are willing to take the lumps that you have and keep coming back. It’s almost like watching Ali’s Rope-a-dope boxing style. Clever. The debate about your predictions is also akin to a Bear and Bull market discussion. Some think (hope, believe) ‘up’ and some think (hope, believe) ‘down’. My gut says you’re right. My brain doesn’t want to believe and hopes you’re wrong.

Cheers. Now I need a refil. 007

NS1 – at 20:14

Owl-

Nice connection. In fact, a virus exhibits most parasite traits and should be considered one, very small, very stealthy, very dangerous.

Dem-

Plane ticket to Brussels -$758 Index porcine incubator-$175 Triumphant photo of Niman and index pig - PRICELESS

NW – at 20:32

dubina – at 05:04 “…dedicate bronze likenesses of him in city parks”

You see the irony in that don’t you? Pigeons, parks, statues….

NW – at 20:37

You realize unless we get closure on all of this there will eventually be a thread entitled “NIMAN MMMCCXIV”

Anastasia – at 20:45

I hope every single one of us is still alive to be debating a “Niman MMMCCXIV” thread…

Wouldn’t that just be wonderful?

dubina – at 21:33

Despite some denials, the Niman threads are to FluWiki as Desperate Housewives is to ABC.

Dav – at 22:17

007 “Now I need a refil”

Is that “shaken not stirred” :)

beans – at 22:31

Sensationalism greatly enhances exhilaration of near (but not too near) catastrophe. Yes - people WILL go outside in a hurricane-ask Dan Rather about hanging onto that pole. I am spending a not insignificant amount of money and time covering these bets. If I were me I’d prefer not to be taking odds from the “grassy knoll, East German head transplant, anti-Jewish anthrax Hatfill coverup conspiracy, Chinese bioterrorism mutant virus Plum Island release conspiracy, link-hit-counting (but not selling anything-but maybe-future ads-on-his-site, ebola recombinant virologist. Wisdom from Webster would be helpful.

19 February 2006

NS1 – at 00:02

Sequences from China, Turkey and Iraq would be useful.

anon_22 – at 00:04

People sounding spookily like Niman is cause for concern.

NS1 – at 00:14

Higher specificity of “people sounding spookily like Niman” would be useful and the lack of reporting details is scandelous.

beans – at 00:39

Spoooookey. Worrisome.

Petergunn – at 16:00

> People sounding spookily like Niman is cause for concern.

Another concern is the possibility of recombination of Niman, NS1 and anon_22 sequences. This could happen directly or through some intermediate host. The lack of positive reports is likely due to ineffective surveillance within these forums wans raises questions on transparency and testing procedures.

I would start to prepare now if I were you.

JoeWat 16:20

Here are some interesting studies Sang Heui Seo, Erich Hoffmann & Robert G. Web. Lethal H5N1 influenza viruses escape host anti-viral cytokine responses. Nature 26 August 2002. Study of pigs and cytokine storm. It doesn’t look good to me. http://tinyurl.com/b29av

Chen, H., et al. Establishment of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza virus in Asia: Implications for pandemic control Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences February 10, 2006. http://tinyurl.com/dt9gs

Anastasia – at 17:47

JoeW: Glad you didn’t go away…

I checked out the links you provided but honestly didn’t understand. Can you elaborate in less scientific terms?

JoeWat 17:57

I am not the one to respond here as it is not something I know much about. From what I read H5N1 is devestating in pigs and there are now several strains that could inteact with pigs and then easily jump to humans (?) None of this is brand new but the formally published studies show that it is definitely a real scary probability (I think). I was hoping that someone more knowledable would interpret for all of us.

Carolina Girl – at 18:48

And on another thread here is a story about 80 villagers dying after eating pigs that had died. Not sure if it has been substantiated yet. think it was the news thread.

Carolina Girl – at 18:50

It was the News February 19th thread and was posted by Eccles - at 16:37

Monotreme – at 19:25

JoeW and Anastasia: Based just on reading the abstract, the study JoeW cites apparently used a recombinant virus to try to determine why H5N1 is so lethal. A portion of the H5N1 virus was combined with a harmless virus H1N1. This recombinant was lethal in pigs. Combining parts of a lethal virus with a harmles virus is a standard way to determine which genes, or parts of genes, are critical to its lethality.

We now know that H5N1 is lethal to many mammals, including domestic cats. Check out this page for more animal studies?.

Okieman – at 20:24

Just had a disturbing thought:

Hogs will eat just about anything, corn, milk, leftovers,…dead chickens.

I was raised on a farm. If I try to put myself in the shoes of a poor farmer in Nigeria that has been told his sick chickens should not be eaten, it is easy for me to imagine him throwning them to the hogs. From his perspective, he is getting at least some value out of them.

With this thought in mind, the above mentioned story about “80 villagers dying after eating pigs that had died” might be worth watching.

Tom DVM – at 21:20

Okieman. You demonstrate pratical experience that is often lost to regulatory agencies.

Okieman – at 21:31

Tom DVM - As you probably know, farmers are by nature resourceful folks. Whether you are a farmer in Nigeria trying to feed your family, or a farmer in the U.S. trying to hang on to the family farm, you do what you have to to get by. Surely the WHO and the UN have folks on staff to anticipate this sort of thing. Unfortunately, I’m afraid the task may have grown beyond their grasp in Africa.

007 in the USA – at 21:53

Poverty and ignorance will be the weak link in mankind’s chain.

007

NS1 – at 22:02

Chicken or the Egg Which came first Poverty or Ignorance?

24 May 2006

DemFromCTat 13:28

close thread

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