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Forum: 1918 Parallels

01 March 2006

Quartzman – at 14:01

I’m wondering, without reading the history book on the 1918 Flu, how much of the current pattern coincides with the months before the outbreak in 1918? Any parallels?

Cause one thing I’ve wondered is:

OK, March is here. The 1st wave of “Spanish Flu” broke out in Spring of 1918 (I read that on this site somewhere). France (and Europe in general) is starting to see bird flu cases.

Has anyone read of similar history? Bovine herds keeling over? Flocks of migratory hunting birds missing before the onset?

Get what I’m asking?

In short, just wondering if the mechanisms for global transmission are the same as they were in 1918 - but we just didn’t know since people didn’t track dead wildlife at that time?

Snowhound1 – at 14:05

That’s very true and WWI was going on so most of the attention of the world was focused on that.

Snowhound1 – at 14:07

Also, they seemed much more concerned with outbreaks of measles, small pox, etc. which all seemed much more threatening than Influenza.

anon_22 – at 17:35

Most of what we know about the spread of the virus in 1918 appear to indicate spread by shipping, whether troops or merchant shipping. Also, there are stories of Indian nationals working for the British army in the European war brought the virus back home when the war ended,

anon_22 – at 17:35

Today’s equivalent would be airplanes.

Felicia – at 17:46

Just finished the book. One thing I found interesting is that it was a weaker form of the virus that initially become pandemic, primarily in Europe. Then the flu regrouped and got its original strength back for the second wave which was much more deadly - and that is the strain that hit the US hardest. If this flu progresses similarly, then we may prematurely breathe a sigh of relief as it becomes pandemic but not much more lethal than an ordinary flu. One would need to take a lesson from the past and know that it might just be gathering strength for an all out assault at its current lethal levels in a 2nd wave.

anon_22 – at 17:55

I should give a warning that the second wave being worse than the first is not universal. Of the pandemics from late 19th century onwards, 50% had a more severe first wave, and 50% second wave. So do not rely on this pattern for any decisions.

Devils Advocate – at 17:58

Those who doubt will crawl out of the woodwork with a “ Told you so “ attitude if that were to happen which would make the notorious second wave that more deadly. I can just imagine the media headlines playing it all down and saying what a buch of panicky so and so’s we all were to be worried.

Then WHAM ! Second wave hits and its a monster. I will wait to see the turth of the matter before I decide its not as bad as they may say. I think the majority of prepped people will as well.

Melanie – at 17:58

the reveres have speculated that the current case patterns could be wave one. On the other hand, H5N1 is unique, so I don’t know that the 1918 panflu can be considered a model.

crfullmoon – at 19:02

(I’ll have to see if I can remember - someone may have done a comparison at CurEvents’ Flu Clinic)

From the MA pandemic “summit” evidently, [Adding my comments]

http://tinyurl.com/m47ye

…”Why not 1918? [You had to ask?]

(Then:)Medical / Scientific Awareness & Capacity

[Only as good as its worldwide existance and implementation -surely some parts of Africa and Asia are stillat 1918 levels of care, disease awareness and monitoring. Scientists and nation are also witholding data, not allowing human samples to be obtained, ect. Capacity to examine an area test or cull livestock, test and treat people seems already overwhelmed by sheer numbers and geography. Pandemic, the sheer numbers of ill would swamp health care, and supply chain disruptions would ensure medical care could not remain “modern.”]

(Then) Months elapsed before scientists identified the “epidemic” as influenza [Identifying H5N1 still leaves science powerless to stop its spread, nor its mutations, nor have effective vaccines in time.] (The entire public still doesn’t understand influenza, nor modern science. The poor cullers who worked the ostrich farm ran away rather than then be tested for H5N1; afraid the protective-geared outsiders would cull them too, if they had the virus! Some Americans refuse vaccines.) (Weeks and maybe months go by before some remote places get tested for H5N1 or get results back, even now.)

(Then) 30% + of medical personnel assigned to WWI European theatre Public Awareness [“War on terror” has troops, equipment, medical personnel, huge ammounts of money, other conflicts too, also consider higher numbers of wounded veterans survive and are in rehab with personnel. Public awareness has been overwarned about possible terrorists, chemical attacks, ect, all locations have been told to have plans to deal with terrorist attack, when the only thing that can target every neighborhood is influenza pandemic. Awareness of pandemic danger has been muddled by spin about vaccine and promises to order antivirals; some heard it as 6 months until vaccine would be ready for all, and millions of Tamiflu sounded like plenty. Public awareness keeps getting put back to sleep.]

(Then) War-time communications restricted disclosure of pandemic impact [Most secretive administration since Richard Nixon. Trickle-down information in progress. CBO Dec. 2005 macroeconomic report says each wave may last 3 to 5 months with other waves 1 to 3 months after one ends. Public is not getting public service announcements on this. National economic impact is of more concern than public impact?]

Non-engaged Spain was the only country to disclose impact, thus “Spanish” Flu vs. “Kansas” Flu (where pandemic likely originated) [This has nothing to do what things won’t be as bad now as they were in 1918. China may have kept past outbreaks to itself. Some nations are now not letting the WHO in, but conducting their own quarantine zones and H5N1 testing.]

(Then)Public / Civic Interventions (or lack thereof) (Wartime bond sale rallies weren’t cancelled, many public places were kept open until so many people were sick they didn’t want to use them anyway, newspapers from Toronto and elsewhere show officials saying “no need to panic” “no a very serious disease problem” “not Spanish Flu just something normal”, “no need to close schools, cancel church” ect.)

[Already no travel restrictions to human-case H5N1 nations. Keeping economy running; when will they close schools this time? What are these quarantine zones like, when used, how enforced; currently populace is not ready.]

(Then) No advance warning, education or planning (no one knew what hit them!) [US advice to public so far; wash their hands and stay home when sick, two days, no; two weeks, no; six weeks stock up (rather than say “6 months” right off). Plan: Waiting until you are sure a pandemic is occurring to begin educating the public - or- “managing information” government thinks the public needs to know. Local level planning has yet to occur, 5 or 6 months since the WHO and US gov pandmeic websites went up. Public is not ready if animals start to die here; look at other countries’ surprised public now. Still not taking precautions because they don’t understand the need, or cannot afford PPE, or other food. That cats and dogs may get H5N1 is going to cause problems.]

(Than) No strategic restrictions of travel from infected countries, public gatherings, or closing schools to impede spread / diminish peak impact [No strategic restrictions of travel from infected countries. We’ll see about what else actually gets done; implementation needs public understanding, cooperation, and readiness. First.]

(Then) Historical Context WWI “call-up” of millions of young men to duty at height of spread “ [Lots of troops, stretched very thin, deployed many places worldwide, including H5N1 areas. Whatcha gonna do in pandemic flu?]Unsettling article about govenors and national guard and the Bush admin http://tinyurl.com/rba3t …”The long deployments have left some states stretched thin, causing the governors to worry about their capacity to deal with domestic disasters”…

Now Quartzman, I know you wondered if it started in wildlife first -probably did- animals were implicated near some of the army barracks;

You really ought to give in and read some of the history!

 ;-)

http://www.doctorsreview.com/archivepage2s/2005/no_11b/nov05-historyb.html

…”As a precaution, Gitchell was ordered to the tent reserved for soldiers with potentially contagious conditions. But nothing could change the fact that Gitchell had been serving up meals to soldiers until the previous evening.

A few hours after the cook was admitted, Corporal Lee Drake came in with almost identical symptoms. Then, Sergeant Adolph Hurby showed up. He too had frighteningly similar complaints. One by one, men with fevers of 104°F, blue faces and horrendous coughs made their way to the infirmary. By midday, Camp Funston had 107 cases of the flu, a total of 522 reported within the first week alone, and a staggering 1127 by the time April rolled around. In the end, 46 of those afflicted at Fort Riley died.

Though the situation was unusual, both the government and the military were distracted by the war effort. Officials called it a pneumonia outbreak and chalked it up to the strange combination of conditions in Fort Riley that week. Not only had the camp been shrouded in a vicious prairie dust storm, soldiers had been breathing in something even more noxious:

putrid black ash created by tons of burning manure courtesy of the camp’s thousands of horses and mules. In retrospect, the fact that countless swine and poultry were also living in close proximity to the soldiers may be a more likely place to lay blame since pigs can be susceptible to avian influenza viruses — those strains responsible for most serious forms of flu — which can then mutate and be transmitted to humans.”…

…” there is another current school of thought, which actually links the 1918 Spanish flu to an earlier outbreak that winter in the Canton Province of China, one which possibly remained unknown and unreported because of its remote location and inadequate record keeping. The theory suggests that Chinese workers then brought the virus to France, where they were digging trenches for the French Army. “…

[Now instead of ships and trains, we have a web of air flight, every day, and autos, subways, three times the global population…more people without stocked pantries, too.]

De jure – at 19:49

Let’s see. Major extremes in temperature during summer and winter back then, major extremes now (I wonder what the hurricane activity looked like back then?) Governments were preoccupied with war back then, governments are preoccupied with war or religious/cultural extremism now. Minimal funding for public health back then, minimal funding now. Confusion over where the microbe came from then, disagreement over how this virus becomes pathogenic, where it came from, etc. now. Crowding of populations (due to war) back then, major slums in mega-cities now. Government control over media (due to war) back then, government and corporate control over media now. No known effective vaccine against influenza then, no effective vaccine against this new form of influenza now. No ability for hospitals to deal with surge capacity due to pandemic back then, no ability now. By the way, I was on a business trip to Orlando not long ago. I heard from other conference attendees that the local hospitals there were so overwhelmed by patients that patients were crowding the hallways. Apparently the seasonal flu was going around. Wonder what would happen if a pandemic strain were to hit there, or anywhere else here in the U.S. for that matter?

Melanie – at 19:53

De jure,

The Great Influenza. Just read it.

De jure – at 20:12

Melanie, oh yes, I’ve read it. And I lived in Kansas growing up. And I agree with the first-person accounts of what the weather and terrain was like. Actually, we used to have a saying. “Welcome to Kansas. Please set your clock back 50 years.” Do you remember the first part of the Wizard of Oz, where everything was in black-and-white? Well, it’s really like that. And I had a friend who lived in Junction City, whose father was a sergeant there at Fort Riley. Although I learned it for the first time in reading the book, it didn’t surprise me at all the the pandemic could have started at a place like Fort Riley.

25 May 2006

BroncoBillat 00:03

Older thread, closing for speed purposes.

check dates

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