If this thing occurs and people really freak out, we’ll probably be hearing that Elderberry extract (sambucol) is a good thing to take for flu. However, it occurred to me that this may in fact be the exact WRONG thing to take.
According to the research, elderberry excites the immune system (which sounds good on the surface) and increases levels of cytokine. The problem with taking elderberry is this: the avian flu kills healthy people by causing a “cytokine storm,” in which so much of this stuff is produced, it fills up the bronchi in the lungs. I’m not an expert on this at all, but I’d think you’d want to dampen, not enhance, the production of cytokine.
Read the last bit of this article, which talks about the elderberry: The effect of Sambucol, a black elderberry-based, natural product, on the production of human cytokines: I. Inflammatory cytokines. - PubMed
Now read this bit about the cytokine storm and bird flu: http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-storm.htm
Could a medical person please comment on this theory??
here’s some info: http://www.dymaxionweb.com/h5n1/archives/2005/09/bird_flu_and_st.html September 29, 2005 Bird flu and statins
In an extremely interesting article in the Clinicians Biosecurity Network Weekly Bulletin (issue of 9/27/05) Borio and Bartlett review a suggestion of David Fedson, an expert on vaccines (and former Director of Medical Affairs at Aventis Pasteur), that statins (tradenames Zocor or Lipitor) might be helpful in preventing serious complications of influenza, perhaps by dampening the cytokine response.
The statins are widely used and available drugs used to lower cholesterol. They also have anti-inflammatory activities, perhaps by preventing activation of the transcription factor NF-kappaB. One mechanism thought to underlie the virulence of the H5N1 virus is production of a “cytokine storm,” an unregulated systemic inflammatory response that results in a rapidly developing generalized clotting disorder, hemorrhage, kidney failure and fluid-filled lungs. The phenomenon is similar to or the same as what is called gram-negative sepsis or septic shock, a serious complication of bacterial infections that claims 400,000 to 500,000 lives each year in the US and has 50% to 70% mortality. Treatment for sepsis is a high priority independently of any role for the same or similar mechanism in influenza.
Dear Grace,
This is an issue in discussion and re-discussion at the FluClinic Curevents board, continually. There are as ever, ideological camps arraigned behind the two positions, of “yes it’s good”, and “no, it’s bad.”
FWIW, I very much agree with you.
My own thoughts are given here. [Scroll to post 39]
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=23967&page=1&highlight=autocrine
Med-owl has posted about this issue also. Here is his site.
http://www.med-owl.com/herbal-antivirals/tiki-index.php
He likens it to an immune response with hayfever. If you keep rubbing your eyes, you make it worse. With H5, Elderberry is rubbing your eyes, and rubbing them muchly.
The reply to this by those who feel elderberry is safe is that it reduces viral load. That it does so is not disputed, and has been demonstrated in a few trials. But, crucially it elevates cytokines, which seem to be bad. It is a delicate balancing act, something a bit like Burridan’s ass. Which way to turn, for or against? Both positions ARE correct. But which has least and most consequence.
The Curevents idea seems to be to use cytokine modulators, specifically ones picked for selective action versus TNF-a, the aggitator cytokine that is implicated in initiating the whole feedforward cascade.
The annoying thing with this issue is, the two sides are deadlocked, or rather, the opposing side has no effective evidence aside from conjecture. Both sides are conjecture, but people still keep buying up elderberries and Sambucol.
We would like an answer, a definitive one. Or additional input from people who know what they are talking about in detail. If the concerns are found to be in error, so be it. I and others would rather be wrong, than right here. But there are concerns. I would appreciate any input that the FluWiki’s community could provide.
Finally, here is my intuition tree of bad logic, an argument trying to weigh the pro and con:
“My reasoning, perhaps muddle headedly and bad logically: (I welcome corrections)
1. Flu alone cannot kill you, if you keep the temperature down and hydrate yourself.
2. The chances of dying from this flu are quite high compared to normal flu. But still small. Around 5% and perhaps higher.
4. We know cytokines, particualrly TNF-a start the cytokine storm cascade.
5. Elderberry elevates cytokines (45 times? two times?)
6. The cytokine storm cascade response has been conjectured to be the leading killer in the 1918 flu and this H5N1 flu. You die from a cytokine storm.
From 4) 5) and 6) it follows that taking elderberry to reduce symptoms and duration of the flu is dangerous. It seems to elevate the risk of having a cytokine storm.
As per 1) without elderberry you suffer a more brutal flu with longer duration etc, but you will come through it. You must look to other thigns to treat the flu. Anti-fever pills, painkillers, snot rags.
From this conclusion, I think path 2 [to take no elderberry] makes the most sense. If you are looking to shorter the time it smacks you down, you increase the risk of death. Less days in all ways, but one is more final. I.e., one reduces days of suffering but one ends it permanently.
Perhaps.
Objections to above:
Modulating TNF-a may help. Perhaps. I had gunky lungs the other week and I took fish oil. Helped me.
and
Modulating TNF-a may not help. Because of immune system redundancies. (The tetracycline article that I think DebMC posted has a basic run through of this.)
And
Reducing viral load is the key.
Correct. But not at the expense of increasing death through elevating cytokine storm precurrsor triggers.
And there may be objections to this point in turn.
We need:
An idea of how a CSC starts. What cytokines do what. How much and how many. What thresholds. What binds to what. What signals to what.
An experiment.
Thoughts?”
Dear prodrome (love the name, by the way), Got me on the cytokine issue..more research…I’ve been on statins for 4 years, so if it arrives, I get it and live, who knows, a case study. If this is info you know already, then forgive me for the following: Fact: getting the current avian flu can kill you, even without a secondary bacterial infection ie pneumonia. It can cause a massive inflammation of the lungs, called ARDS, adult respiratory distress syndrome- not SARS, different thing-or noncardiac pulmonary edema This was the findings on autopsies in the 1918 pandemic that set scientists back on the heels; this was occuring in otherwise healthy young adults. It occurs now, with other diagnosis ie trauma, drowning etc and has a high mortality rate even with all the gadgets and super high tech health care available. I’ll stick with good hygiene, hand washing, cleaning common areas with 10% bleach, cleaning off stuff at work ie keypads, phones etc, stockpile some items, but not tamiflu. (I’m taking path 2 as well, no elderberries,Vitamin C and zinc loxenges are cool.)If the West has it all, where are the early victims in the East going to get it from? The HIV/AIDS patients who get this are deep trouble; as for potential secondary infections with the rate I see the prevelence now of the “Superbugs” or drug resistant bacterial infections ie MRSA, etc, that aspect alone is scary!
re: the prior post- this flu can kill you, but most of time it won’t…but for those few, poor people who do get the ARDS reaction/pneumonic flu, the prognosis is poor. If you survive the flu, then you will be weak,be out of work for awhile, and will need help to stay hydrated (keeping fever down helps with that).
Hi Grace!
I agree, without inubation/ventilation prognosis in an ARDS case is poor. It would be appalling to be with a case, with someone in the throes of resp. failure.
It is the cytokine storm that causes ARDS…and once again, having ARDS = essentially a death sentence. I would not be happy taking anything that elevates the cytokine that starts off the whole thing off.
It is lucky that you are on statins! When Revere posted that about statins being beneficial, I reckon we all took notice.
I had been meaning to see about the availability of statins. You have reminded me. Thanks, and thanks for the saying you like my name, it was all I could come up with, and different from ym usual screenames, which are usually just…my name. :D
Prodrome,
you say that keeping the viral load down is the key, but you seem to think that intended course of “treatment” is to keep the temperature down. Those two are in direct opposition, high temperature (fever) presumably interferes with virus replication in cells and is one of the primary defences available to our immune system. Personally, I wouldn’t try to lower anything until it hits 104 (orally). 104 to 106, observe carefully. 106 - time to bring the temperature down, SLOWLY, and without drugs (cold compresses, etc). In my opinion, anything below 104 is unlikely to kill you but likely to kill the virus or at least reduce the viral load, so why mess with it.
Could you elaborate on this a little bit more, or is there a better place to discuss this?
Nadia- I don’t agree 100% with that; there is evidence-as seen in children with chickenpox- that if no anti-fever medications are given the disease process is shortened, but the risk of dehydration is high with a fever of 104- from sensible and insensible loss.
Prodrome, I don’t know of any predictors of who will get a cytokine storm that produces ARDS (which is a very ugly process to witness in the hospital;at home, I can’t imagine the horror) and who doesn’t, or if the fever curve is an indicator. More to research. So who knew hyperlipidemia could be a bonus?
Nadia, I’m no doctor, so the fever thing…I can’t answer. I myself asked this at the CurEvents forum.
Doctor Woodson’s guide suggests lowering temperature through ibuprofen and other things. He himself says that evidence is present for both approaches…lowering temp and not lowering. These are all important questions and in the absence of other authorities saying what to do, I am going to follow Dr. Woodson’s advice.
Grace, I think who gets cytokine storm is just one big lottery. And I wouldn’t want to load the dice in favour of rolling snake eyes…um…by taking elderberry. Again though, this is my intuition and I am probably wrong.
prodrome- I agree, why take something that could you over the edge….
Grace, I’ll take a chance of dehydration, which is easily monitored (dry membranes are hard to miss) over the potentially increased risk of GAS or NF or even NSTI that you get with NSAIDs (hello, ibubrofen, I am looking at you!). http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/417492
Nadia,
How great do you see the risk of the complications you list? I do not know their rate of incidence.
Unfortunately, your link did not work for me…is there another way to find the information?
Prodrome, that was for chickenpox-specific reference Grace mentioned, and mostly referred to use of NSAID and/or acetaminophen with varicella. The article on Medscape I was referring to is “Benjamin Estrada , MD , “Varicella and GAS: Do NSAIDs Fuel the Fire?” Infect Med 16, no. 5 (1999): 307. Here’s cut and paste of the gist of it:
The association between fulminant NF and the use of NSAIDs was reported by Rimailho and collaborators more than a decade ago (Rimailho et al: J Infect Dis 155:143–146, 1987). These investigators described fulminant disease in five patients treated with NSAIDs, which included aspirin, diclofenac, piroxicam, and nifluminic acid. Several studies have demonstrated the development of lymphopenia and decreased lymphocyte function in the presence of aspirin and other NSAIDs. It has also been shown that abnormal neutrophil chemotaxis, chemiluminescence, and lymphocyte transformation of PHA occurred when leukocytes from a patient with NF were exposed to NSAIDs. This information suggests that NSAIDs may decrease immune function and favor a widespread infection in patients infected with invasive strains of GAS (Smith RJ: South Med J 84:785–787, 1991).
The association between the use of ibuprofen and the development of severe GAS infection in children with varicella was first reported by Brogan and colleagues (Brogan et al: Pediatr Infect Dis J 14:588–594, 1995) in a series in which five children developed GAS NF while receiving treatment with this NSAID. The investigators concluded that it may be prudent to limit the use of this drug for local complications of varicella, since it may impair granulocyte function and at the same time mask the signs of disease progression with GAS.
Until recently, most of the evidence suggesting a potential association between the use of ibuprofen in patients with varicella and the development of GAS invasive disease was based on isolated case reports or data obtained from small case series. A recent study aimed at the evaluation of risk factors associated with the development of invasive GAS infection in patients with varicella found that the development of invasive disease with this bacteria was 8.3 times more likely in those patients in whom ibuprofen had been used during the first 5 days after the onset of varicella (Peterson CL et al: Pediatr Infect Dis J 15:151–156, 1996).
Yes, the evidence is sketchy at best, but I am staying as far away from antipyretics as possible. Varicella is a virus that causes skin eruptions (lesions) in humans. Avian flu causes lesions in birds (along with petechiae and hemorrhages on mucous surfaces). If taking NSAID during one predisposes you to GAS or NF, the other may very well have a similar reaction. My best guess, GAS or NF during flu epidemic spells 100% mortality (no doctors, full hospitals, no beds, no equipment, severe infections, etc).
You do your own research and make your decisions, but I am still curious what is the reason behind bringing down non-lifethreatning fever (other than making a patient comfortable). Does that doc have some references or reasons he is posting some where? Just curious, that’s all :)
Most references recommend tylenol for the fever of flu,. High fevers rapidly dehydrate from loss of sweat and increased breathing due to fever. Have someone around to monitor you if you get that sick, even from the “regular flu”.
re: aspirin and NSAIDS for fever…aspirin is out all together in almost all cases of fever due to risks (ie reye’s syndrome with chickenpox, bleeding etc), most docs use tylenol/acetominphen for fever. Just monitor, monitor,monitor if tackling the flu without tylenol (also reduces some of the pain); last time I had the flu (1976) I would have preferred morphine!
Speaking of morphone… What about codeine for flu-related pain relief? Tylenol #3, 4, etc? Any counterindications? Also seems like it would be a good thing to have on hand in case you break your leg and can’t get to the hospital.
This brings in fun memories of living in Europe, where this stuff is in OTC cold medicines. Works GREAT. Knocks you out for 24 hours, you wake feeling like a new person. :)
I was making med list for stocking up: 2 courses of Tamiflu, 3 mos of regular meds (thyroid), 2 courses of amoxycillin (and yes, I know all about antibiotic resistance, so this is last resort for things like secondary infections and/or gum-tooth infections only), obvious OTCs (Excedrin, Mortrin, Tylenol). Not a big fan of decongestants or cough syrop, so skipping those. Anything else I missed? If you could have any prescription meds, no restrictions, what would you get? Injectible and/or stronger antibiotics? More pain relief? More Tamiflu?
Nadia, I have seen no reports of lesions in humans, but your suggestions and rationale are interesting. I have not encountered them before.
I almost posted an article I found on NSAIDs, GAS etc…in my previous reply.
“Invasive Group A Streptococcal Infection and Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drug Use Among Children With Primary Varicella “ http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/107/5/1108
In the absence of any evident lesions (so far as I know…) I would think that using NSAIDS is OK, even with varicella caveats taken into account. Having said that, the recent New England Journal Medicine report on the genotype of 1918 Flu seems to confirm it was an avian Flu without recombining (IIRC)…and H5N1 may well do the same. I do not know to what extent epizootic characteristics are retained in any human adapted strain…certainly many of H5′s avian symptoms are retained after a fashion in humans. So, bad headache is one. But conjunctivitis so far is not.
You might consider posting this at the Curevents FluClinic. It is a novel and intriguing thought. Many posters monitor every case they can that is taken to hospital or which receives media attention. If there ave been lesions, they will know. Even if lesions are beside the point (which may be true) the idea can be discussed with a lot more participation and input over there. I mean no offence to the Wiki or its contributors.
If you don’t wish to post there or have no time to, I can raise the question there, giving credit to you, if I have your permission.
Incidentally I do not know why the text is running into very long lines here. Perhaps it is only my computer??
No, it is not only on your computer. I’m having the same problem. I use an iMac G4 with System 10.4.2, and I have the same problem using both Internet Explorer and Safari. Could the problem be occurring because this comment block is so wide?
I think that’s right ssal.
Fixed. Sidescroll happens when one indents a comment. You just can’t do that. ;-)
pogge and I will repair when found. It’s not you.
The mode of Elderberry’s action is NOT primarily due to activation of citokines, nor is that a particularly strong side effect of Elderberry’s antiviral component. Elderberry contains a ribosomal inactivator which is chemically similar to that of Ricin (the deadly poison terrorists habitually try to manufacture). Ricin’s ribosomal inactivation affects all cells, indiscriminately, thereby killing the organism. However, elderberry’s anti-ribosomal enzyme is chemically distinct, in several minor variations, such that, unlike Ricin, it has no effect on the ribosomes of normal, noninfected, eukaryotic cells (normally functioning cells that make up multi-cellular organisms like us). Instead, it only inactivates ribosomes of cells that are actively infected by influenza and other RNA-type viruses, and which are being used to manufacturer new viral RNA particules. The reason for the specificity is extremely complex and not well understood by scientists. It evolved, no doubt, as a method by which the plant self-protects itself against plant viruses, many of which, like influenza, are based upon RNA. It is interesting to note that, just as St. John’s Wort is specific to the inactivation of DNA based viruses, and has no effect on influenza, elderberry is specific to RNA based viruses, and has no effect on DNA based viruses like human papilloma virus, and/or smallpox. As to its use against the new strains of avian influenza, if you are particularly worried about the minor citokine activation side effect, you can take curcumin (turmeric extract) at the same time. Curcumin dampens down citokine production. However, if taken at the first signs of influenza, before the virus has taken full hold, it is unlikely that the citokine stimulating side effects of Elderberry will cause significant morbidity in sick patients.
It’s hard to decide on just one approach to the myriad problems encountered when dealing with a severe viral illness. I’m an RN and a mother and I have tentatively decided on this course of action. As a 50 year old smoker, a nurse with a drive for research and the likelihood that I will be responsible for the health care of family and friends in a pandemic, I have varying approaches depending on age group, health history and presentation. This is only tentatively planned and I refine daily. Currently I take fish oil, N-Acetylcysteine and red yeast rice (statin) daily as does my husband. The kids, 20 and 8, take medication unrelated to physical health at this time. As my concern grows related to news reports I will probably put everyone on elderberry and add fish oil to my kids daily meds. I have curcumin on hand depending on developing understanding of the situation. If we get any suspicion of exposure amongst us (daily temps?)I plan to start Tamiflu twice daily and if that seems inadequate, add Amantadine as directed by label. (I know some strains are resistant to one or the other)Or perhaps a knowledgeable person could suggest Amantadine first, then Tamiflu or both at the same time. I’m still evolving. I’m glad this addresses NSAIDS as, although I was aware of the value of fever, I was somehow unaware of the immune system effects of these drugs (and I read alot). At any rate, here’s where this forum contributed to a change in my plans. Originally I was prepared to conservatively (without NSAIDS) treat fever up to 101 or 102. At this point I’m willing to go higher, up around 104 depending on the situation. Good points.
Personally 104 is too high for me. Your original estimate of 101 to 102 is fine IMO, though I have clinical experience or am not a medical person at all.
For me, I still think the risk associated with NSAIDS is minimal and will not preclude my using them.
I’m not quite sure also, about Dr. Joe’s points. Apart from curcumin does work, and that the level of TNF etc, is probably insignificant, despite some fears (including my own).
Personally I live on NSAIDS and I’m not so worried about their use in adults. The Elderberry thing, I’ve read several times now, seems like it would be problematic when started after H5N1 symptoms are present. Perhaps only valuable if started prophylactically.
I noticed an error in my post above Slongo’s.
“Your original estimate of 101 to 102 is fine IMO, though I have clinical experience or am not a medical person at all.”
Should read:
“Your original estimate of 101 to 102 is fine IMO, though I have NO clinical experience or am not a medical person at all.”
I have NO clinical experience. I’m just an ordinary person. Pretty important typo there. Apologies.
I e-mailed the makers of Sambucol and actually got I reply. Thet said their sales have not jumped up, but more importantly “ ..With regards to the Avian flu, Sambucol has been shown to be effective against a wide range of viruses, mainly Influenza and Influenza related virus. The first laboratory studies were done on human strains and also on animal influenza strains including some bird strains (but not the current H5N1). One of the published studies on Sambucol itself (J Altern Complement Med. 1995 Winter;1(4):361–9) showed reduced hemagglutination and inhibition of replication on a turkey influenza strain. In light of the growing concern of a possible H5N1 pandemic, we are currently exploring ways and methods to check Sambucol’s effectiveness and we expect it will take some time to receive conclusive answers. Once we have new data and information we will publish it (also on our website).
We are going to post some information on our website…”
I hope it is OK that I quoted them. I thought it nice that they answered, though they didn’t specifically mention anything about cytokines, even though I asked them what they knew. I guess this is a question they must also have and that they probably would be looking into. I wonder how it could be tested. Do turkeys get cytokine storms?
Why is it in 2005 we have to have all our illnesses fixed right away via a pill/solution? I could scream!!!!!!! We have lethal superbacteria because people have to have an antibiotics when they have a cold. People-get a hold of yourselves! Try to conceive of a time when an illness spreads and THERE IS NO MAGIC PILL, because that time is coming. (Tamilfu won’t be ready in appreciable amounts until 2010, let’s ask H5N1 to wait,OK) Almost all of us can, and will, survive the pandemic. If you have to have a superpill then you will not manage mentally in a pandemic. This type of thinking will cause a panic. Seek out realistic answers, and by all means push your representatives to all that is possible. Just be ready when all is not possible.
I think that in 2005, we are very lucky to have meds for diseases which would never have been cured or controlled any other way. However, you are right that good, considerate personel hygine would do a lot to contain serious infections. The problem is, in my house, that my little children(and everyone elses I’m around) don’t always have a long attention span. No matter what I say, 2 mins. later one of the kids has their hand to their eyes or mouth. They touch everything! They eat after each other, they slime my drinks when my back is turned. That’s kids! That’s why so many infections spread from young children. I would hope as soon as this virus or whichever one comes, that all daycares and schools would simply shut their doors. Then, of course you would have parents not able to work.
Also, I think people are looking for a magic pill, because up to now most people didn’t take the flu that seriously. That’s why so much flu vaccine goes to waste many years. That is why Tamiflu didn’t take off until now. People thought they would just get sick for a few days, then it would all go away. They aren’t prepared for a flu that kills.
In our backwards town, children must have a docs. note to be excused from school. Many of the kids here don’t have health ins. and can’t afford to go to the doc., so the parents send the kids to school sick. After only a few unexcused abscences the parents are sent a nice invitation to visit the judge.
When the flu does hit, the school watches those numbers and when most of the kids are sick, that is when they close school. They don’t do this to protect the kids, they do this because they are going to lose that daily, percapita money they receive. They’ll just wait to capture that money, when the kids are well and they can make up the schooldays then. They don’t shut down when a serious illness is beginning to spread through the school, only when it is going to cost them big bucks due to so many sick kid’s low attendance!
I plan to rotate ibuprofin/tylenol to keep fever down. Since it takes a temp of 150 to kill this virus, I see no benefit in a fever. As a child, my best friend died from the chickenpox due to a high fever. I’m not willing to take a chance with my kids.
> I plan to rotate ibuprofin/tylenol to keep fever down. Since it takes a temp of 150 to kill this virus, I see no benefit in a fever. As a child, my best friend died from the chickenpox due to a high fever. I’m not willing to take a chance with my kids.
Another case of unintelligent design along with the cytokine uzi. FEMA may take some relief—even God can’t get it right in cases of emergency.
I have an info-bite that may allow even further confusion. ;)..
I am currently taking a discount commercial ‘Ginseng Complex’ for Hep C , containing ‘Siberian Ginseng’ .. Eleutherococcus Senticosus. It has an anti-viral (inhibits viral replication) effect, similar to what is known of Elderberry. I also use ordinary off the shelf Turmeric, for liver support. Both seem to be appropriate as prophylactic treatment for H5N1, and as I am in a high-risk group IF I catch it.. I also intend to take Elderberry tincture as a preventative. One of the ‘side effects’ of Siberian Ginseng is slower metabolizing of other medicinals. It SEEMS (to me) that the 3 herb combination would act synergistically and could be expected to lessen chances of actually developing H5N1.. anyone have data to suggest otherwise? I am guessing, not a doctor, but in this case am strongly motivated to take small risks to avoid large ones.
Grace, maybe we have superbacteria because so much of our food is full of antibiotics (chicken, farmed fish etc). Maybe the doctors should share responsibility for handing out antibiotics like smarties whenever people ask for them.
“Almost all of us can, and will, survive the pandemic”
The fatality rate is around 50% for H5N1 infections right now. (no idea where prodrome got the 5% figure from..?) If people start catching it as fast as birds do now…….
“If you have to have a superpill then you will not manage mentally in a pandemic. This type of thinking will cause a panic.”
I think mental state will be the least of your worries when the pandemic hits. More important to have something to reduce flu symptoms and raise the chance of surviving. Thats not panicking, its being real.
Jude my 5% figure was based on hoping that the virus will be as pathogenic as 1918. 1918 was actually about 2% I think. No one is really sure. I chose a figure near to that figure.
It could be higher. Much higher. Or not. I do not know how the interplay of reproductive numbers, mobile populations, airtravel, shedding times and innate pathogenicity will all come together.
“The fatality rate is around 50% for H5N1 infections right now. (no idea where prodrome got the 5% figure from..?) If people start catching it as fast as birds do now…….”
That’s for H5N1 right now and those figures only apply to the few (130 ish?) people known to have caught it. If you compare the number of dead people (about 65) with the number of people in Asia, then the mortality rate is somewhat lower than 50%. There is no evidence to suggest that ‘people will start catching it as fast as birds do’ - in fact the evidence suggests that very few people manage to catch it.
We don’t know what the next pandemic human flu virus will be, nor do we have any idea of the mortality rate it will cause. We are preparing for a pandemic because a pandemic is overdue and there are some nasty viruses about. As somebody said earlier: ‘Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.’
folks, i can watch a snowball roll downhill and envision an avalanche without HOPING for one. far as i see, there’s not a darn thing preventing a pandemic but the unknown factor of IF a virus is going to mutate. now any sort of preventative is highly relevant. if it’s meditating 3 times a day, i’m buying some incense and sitar music. does that sound sorta desperate? ok, fine. just say i’m motivated to examine options. NOT GETTING SICK makes more sense than ignoring the issue. Any clues on ‘not getting sick’? I want all of those. Thanks..
new news: maybe elderberry is the RIGHT thing to take indeed:
here’s the link
Those of you planning on dosing your family with elderberry might want to find out ahead of time if they can tolerate it. I can’t, so I get to avoid the debate about elderberry v. cytokine storms.
About all this discussion:
If TSHTF, we’ll all be looking to maximize our chances of survival, in any way possible. So meds are naturally ONE MEANS TO THAT END. Not the only means, of course, but one which we would be well advised to do what we can systematically to try to discover what is effective.
A month or so ago I proposed that we create an “open source” treatment database, so that we might discover what is effective as a pandemic is happening. I have tried to get various entities interested in supporting such an effort, to no avail. Perhaps t is time for me to redouble my efforts.
In case you’re interested, I can explain further.
The “open source” flu treatment database would treat the situation as essentially an open trial of multiple drugs simultaneously. Any person with access to a computer could enroll themselves as a subject. Each person would sign on and record three pieces of information:
1. Exposure situation (unexposed, likely exposed, definitely exposed) 2. Current Health (normal, minor symptoms, major symptoms, death) 3. Pharmaceuticals/herbs used (tamiflu, zocor, curcumin, sambucol, ibuprofen, prednisone, etc)
By assembling a huge number of these cases, any statistically significant pattern of protection would “pop out” as the results come in, in real time.
Of course, how we would get a person to report his or her own death would be an issue, but not an insurmountable one.
The critical issues, underlying the need for this effort are this. 1. No one knows what substances (if anything) will be effective at preventing/treating infection with. In fact, we can’t know until a pandemic is rolling along. 2. Any effort to determine this should use a model of publicly accessible/shared data (hence my use of the term “open source”). This way we all share the data, and conclusions will be disseminated rapidly. 3. Success of this method requires a large scale buy-in by the public, with a wide variety of things tried. 4. Even with reporting problems (people who aren’t trained to assess symptoms, people who may be not so careful in updating their condition) the success of the effort will depend less on any given individual’s data, and more on the overall quality of entries.
I think that if the right organization gets behind this, it could work, and it could work beautifully. I tried to get Consumer’s Union interested, but thy didn’t return my messages. I’m sure they have written me off as a crank. The reason I like CU, is that they do this sort of thing all the time already. Plus, their principles match the ones I outlied above.
End of rant.
Michael Donnelly, great idea for implementation by somebody with money and a newly created website for just that purpose. Supplies of known, standardized preparations of the various herbals, etc. could be mailed out across the country to medical personnel. And they would enter the data of their experience or their patients’ experience into formal questionnaires available at the said website. It would work! Only caveat, significantly different versions of Avian Flu in different regions or even localities could screw with the results. Oops! second caveat, would they have the time?
No, this idea assumes that people will already be trying all kinds of crazy things (colonic irrigation, crystal power) along with the convential and peri-conventional. I suppose you could try to organize certain trials, but with a large enough buy in, it would be unnecessary and more expense than you could afford. The idea is to simply record the results of these “individual experiments” The only significant hole in the logic is that sheisters who are selling certain products (megadoses of vitamin C is one thing that comes to mind, oregano oil is another) might spoof the system in order to make their products look effective.
Why wouldn’t the government get behind this idea since even they acknowledge it would probably be six months before they POSSIBLY had a good vaccine for a PORTION of the population?
My working assumption is that the government is exactly the WRONG entity to get involved, becuase they might be overly concerned about nurturing a weed like this. They’d overthink it in terms of the precedent it would set re: drug trials in general.
Also, I am not sure they would be able to figure out who should fund the effort. FDA? NIH? NSF? FTC? FCC? DHS? FEMA?
Finally, are you sure you want this to get bogged down in gov’t style red tape?
Michael, any port in a storm. I agree on your take, but who is going to take this on? And how quickly will they take this on?
This then is what worries me the most: THERE IS SIMPLY NO GOOD EMPIRICAL DATA for the efficacy of any of these things, tho good a priori cases can be made for many of them. As an empiricist I know from experience that the gap between theoretical predications and empirical validation is wide. I just have to have faith that something will work, and I’d like to create the mechanism for discovering what that something is when the TSHTF.
The person(s) who pull it off will get a Nobel for it, I swear.
Gah! “predictions”
WHO? Well the only people I could think of were Consumer’s Union, a great organization, IMHO. But a well-positioned university group could pull it off as well. Whoever they are, they need to already have high public recognition, and also public confidence. The US Govt does not, neither does WHO. Perhaps Harvard is interested?
I also contacted Osterholm’s group, but no response there either. But why should they respond to me? I’m a nobody, so far as they’re concerned, so I am not surprised. What I need to find is a champion for this idea, someone who already is widely known as an expert, to start bringing it up at conferences and such. Perhaps that person reads FluWiki. Who knows?
Michael, I have nothing to add to that. Except again, one hell of a great idea!
How about something like the Rockefeller Foundation, or one of the other prestigious foundations funding studies, perhaps giving a grant to a University to implement this idea.They probably aren’t involved in the Fluwiki so would have to be contacted. Anyone out there with contacts?
Far Hills:
Don’t expect a reply. My only hope, by posting these ideas here, is that this’ll get indexed by Google, so one night, when someone (we don’t know who yet) is doing some late night searching, they’ll come across this and do something. They’ll talk to someone, or they’ll decide they know just the people to make this happen.
It’s a long shot, I know, but I am definitely not the person to make this idea a reality. I have neither the means, nor the stature, to make it work.
Just a thought - I’ve been looking at the Sambucol study and it seems as though it increases levels of the cytokine IL-10 too. This is well known as an immunosuppressive cytokine (this is my field of expertise) so could go some way to balance any increases in other ‘immunostimulatory’ cytokines.
I know that from my own experience where my eczema was treated by Chinese Herbal Medicine (and my scientist colleagues were none too impressed by that!), the doctor was specifically ACTIVATING certain immune pathways in order to speed up clearance of infiltrating lymphocytes.
Obviously we need to have empirical data in a ‘real’ experiment to see if Sambucol exacerbates or prevents the effects of a cytokine stom but I wouldn’t count it out as a treatment for pandemic flu quite yet! Perhaps the creators or someone else will do an in vivo study but I doubt it - these things cost a fortune!
eat anything that has come from the olive plant
Don’t fry me for saying this, as I am trying to think how/if I will use Sambucol.
This discussion is very interesting & it may have been discussed in great detail before but I am new.
From the little I have read of Sambucol (bought from a health food store)it improves the immune system, along with Vit C & can be used as a prevention---or is used that way for some people. For regular flu it appears to shorten the duration and impede the replication of the virus.
I agree with all that good hygiene, masks, and quarantines will be the best defense with a good immune system.
Regarding the cytokine storm and fevers I have a question: I have always assumed the increase in fever (in a normal, healthy immune system) increases the macrophages and white cells enabling the cells to engulf the bad viruses or bacteria----isn’t this, in itself, an increase in cytokines? So wouldn’t you want to keep your fever at normal levels? If a MD or researcher could answer this I’d appreciate the input.
I agree with Michael Donnely and others that we will not know until there are studies in humans. Sadly we will all be guessing what to take from our arsenals.
hi
Regarding treating fever with aspirin: A huge advantage of aspirin is that it reduces TNF-a. Enough to impact over-production of cytokines? Who knows…However, since it’s the drowning of the lungs that kills, I just can’t see why aspirin would be a scary thing. People have been using it for fever for ages.
I have purchased Sambucol but after much research…have decided against if if I get H5N1.
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