I am trying to get a better understanding on how epidemics progress. I know the 1918 outbreak lasted about a year across the globe, with sporadic re-imergence in different areas. Say, for example, we ALL mangage to isolate ourselves for a few weeks (unrealsitic given how few people are prepared!). This basically halts the progression for the time being. Then it re-imerges again. And Again. etc. Does anyone understand the science of it all?
laura, go look at the Shelter in Place thread.
Pandemics come in waves. In other words, 3 months at a time might be more accurate. It will hit different areas, remain the same, change or reassort and move on. It is anyones guess. The one thing virologist agree on is we really don’t understand the nature of influenzaas influenza study is so very young. Viruses are so small that we didn’t even know what they were a century ago. Just do the best prep you can, be flexible, informed and cautious and you will probably have a better chance than most at surviving.
My best friends claim to “dubious” fame is that she comes from a family that were just a handful of people who survived the Spanish flu of 1918 in their small town.
She said that her great grandmother boarded them in.
She didn’t care for money, or work, or the possibility that after the flu they would have no house left from late payments, she just figured if they got out alive then they could start from scratch.
So day after day the family would watch neighbors go out to work. One guy was a tobacco farmer. He liked his money and he sold his tobacco through most of the pandemic.
He and his family died. He brought the virus back to the house.
When the all clear was given and word got out that the pandemic was over - she kept the family in another 2 weeks. It saved them once more. Many people who left and went out at that time - when it was supposed to be safe - caught the virus and died.
Just think - the virus lives 70 - 150 days in bird droppings. It can be airborne from that state. So if it seems the pandemic is over - ESPECIALLY in winter - when the virus loves cool conditions, remember my friend’s great grandmother and err on the side of caution.
Tuna!
Thank you! Real-life anecdotes are more powerful than reams of statistics and learned cautions! I am printing this out to add to my (hard copy) notice board.
No offense worth taking by you, but I shall clip off the final paragraph and leave the story as the abiding impression. Half the world will read your post and comment solely on technical analysis, and refutation, of the detail in final paragraph!
Again, thank you!
Tuna: Excellent Post!
The main lessons here for those who are going to totally isolate through the waves is to do it early, even if it results in a couple of false-starts, and to be very skeptical about government pronouncements regarding the end of the wave. Keeping society going is the government’s top priority, and rightly so. And I sincerely doubt that we will have the technology in the next few years to fine-tune such a pronouncement.
Tuna’s family story seems to reinforce the lessons that we have seen in the last few months from other family histories. Panflu is a formidable opponent. One false step or a moment of laxity could be the difference between life and death for you and your family.
How long will it last??- till my family has received vaccinations. I’m afraid the waves may not be as defined as 1918, due to air traffic. The Los Alamos simulations said the epidemic would be reseeded frequently. But we have to try and give ourselves options,- some quarantining is better than none. We can buy ourselves time. Maybe there will be a lull and we can restock a few times. Maybe if we’re careful with gloves and masks, and disinfecting, when we do have to run out—maybe we could dodge it. Hope springs eternal, plus parental instincts. With the Biblical plague of the “first born” looming, nothing else matters but to have everything on hand that could be of any help. I am lining up home nursing care too, since we may not succeed in escaping. I’ve never had this type of concern before, and it’s out of character; but a possible social crisis and family death threat is out of the norm too.
I have a related question-
Should we expect that once there is H2H, a vaccine will be developed? Is a year of isolation going to be enough to be reasonably sure that a vaccine will be available when we stick our heads out again? Is it possible the world will be so overwhelmed that vaccine production itself will be offline?
My hope would be that vaccine production would be so important to human survival that it would continue no matter how bad this gets. My goal for prepping is to be capable of staying isolated until there is a vaccine or the virus loses potency.
There’s no telling… the good news would be that the virus wimps out, become milder, even before a vaccination is available to us low priority people. On the other hand, the virus may out-change the vaccination that got mass produced, and it won’t give protection anymore. There’s a spread of good to bad possibilities.
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