Assume you and yours successfully quarantine and ride out the bulk of the virus’ course. How will you know when it is safe to come out of quarantine? How do we know when the virus is “over” or “dead”?
Will it be enough to rely on what news reports are still available?
My understanding is that the virus can stay alive on surfaces for 48hrs, so this would certainly have to be taken into account.
Other thoughts?
maybe you finally let the dog out?
Are you going to quarantine yourselves for 4–6 weeks? I hope you have enough food and supplies. Depending on the severity, bear in mind that pandemics last for several weeks and come in two or three waves over a period of 12–18 months.
I would go with the advise and direction of the CDC and local health officials. If you don’t trust, use your instint.
Are you going to quarantine yourselves for 4–6 weeks? I hope you have enough food and supplies. Depending on the severity, bear in mind that pandemics last for several weeks and come in two or three waves over a period of 12–18 months.
I would go with the advise and direction of the CDC and local health officials. If you don’t trust them, use your own instinct.
It seems to me that social distancing and isolation would need to last until there was a vaccine produced AND available….years. Clearly, if indeed several rounds of Bird flu is expected, then even thinking of coming out within the first 18 months is optimistic.
it seems to me that unless you have an extremely large larder… you will have to be in contact with the outside world. the only real hope for survival would be a vaccine created while the first wave passes and prior to the second.
Well, quite frankly I don’t have a huge larder but I do have a contingency plan for year two: Dog food! It’s got fat, carbohydrate and protein and will keep. I’ll buy about a ton on my final sweep once we enter stage 4. I’ve heard at Wilderness Medical Society workshops to keep in in your backpack as emergency food on long treks! Beef, Lamb or CHICKEN flavor anyone?
If it is this virus, there will be no certainty for years. “Is it safe?”will be the most asked question with no possible answer.
If you don’t know,(got no phone, newspaper or TV service) it’s probably not safe.
There will be great pressures on the government to `restart’ the economy as quickly as possible. I expect the `all clear’ to be issued prematurely in many areas. That happened in 1918, I see no reason to believe it won’t happen again.
While it may seem heartless and cruel for a government to urge it’s citizens to come out of isolation early, the stakes here are very high. The assumption is that a pandemic wave will last 6–12 weeks. We honestly don’t know, but right now, that’s what the government is saying.
There is then expected to be a lull. Maybe, 3 or 4 months later, another wave. Maybe not. We won’t know until it happens. Few people will be able to hunker down for six months or longer, waiting to see if it returns.
With the economy in shambles, the government will want people out and working, and buying goods, as quickly as possible. This isn’t about greed (well, not entirely <g>), it is more about keeping the infrastructure alive. And preparing for the next wave.
This will be a difficult decision, and frankly, I can see both sides to the equation.
Unfortunately, as Medical Maven said: this will be the most asked question with no possible answer.
My advice? Open your windows and screens and watch for a dove to come flying with a twig in its beak.
Well, it worked for Noah. <grin>
Alternately, do as I will: follow cautions of Fla_Medic! And be guided also by level of your food stocks.
are the “two or three waves” a given and therefore to be expected in any case?
Anam, the simple answer is: We don’t know.
There were 3 waves in 1918–1919. There were also scattered outbreaks of a high mortality flu over the next several years, but no one knows if it was the same virus as the Spanish Flu. New Caledonia was hit hard in either 1920, or 1921 (memory fails me this morning <g>)
Ask again 10 years after the next pandemic. We should have a definitive answer. <g>
In Grattan Woodson’s book, _The Bird Flu Preparedness Guide_, he quotes statistics that show that 95% of the deaths in 1918 occurred in the second wave of the pandemic (Sept-Oct).
The first 1918 wave was between Jan-April. So there are a few months between waves for more preps. But question is…where does the virus hide out in the interim? Why are there “waves” at all?
Here’s the answer to when you can come out-yes, it’s what you think it is and they’re customers are going to tell you to get a shot. www.scl.cc/home.php
I think the idea of waves isn’t as stable as it used to be. Our travel and social interactions are so different than they’ve been in the past. It may be just one big long wave, or at least seem that way. Better communication and places that are effectively quarantining people will also have more of an impact than before.
I think it’s dangerous to use the 1918 pandemic as too much of an indicator. This time, the virus isn’t just going to walk in and have its way with us, we’ll be very much affecting its course. That doesn’t mean we’re going to be able to wrestle this monster to the ground, but maybe we’ll learn something and our grandchildren will do better when it comes around the next time.
Brothers and Sisters…my Aunt is on the board of a state for Infectious Disease Control, the meetings national and state have stepped up in frequency of meetings. The word is as I understand it is….there will be (BF) several waves throughout an unknown period of time…which should not be news to anyone…it is what makes sense….excluding the other virsus that will come into play. Too much speculation is unhealthy…..we will adapt to what is unforseen. You will find peace in preparation……..it is absolutely necessary to envision yourself in the worse, develop a mental plan including, “maintaining a joyful attitude in your household” for loved ones”. The most powerful preparation you can arm yourself is “PRAYER POWER”. Keep your wits about you and stay calm….what will be, will be. I agree with Satago…we will have some affect on its course moreso than most..to what degree that is unknown. HENCE, do all that you can for preparation… give it to God, then live in the present. When the time comes..live a day at a time with what that day brings.
Forgive me…the matter of when will you know to come out? My guess is…this will not be an issue…most likely, most will hold out as long as their supplies do regardless of what is being said in the outside world. Need will dictate your Coming Out Day.
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