If all this doom and gloom does come to pass –has anyone got some investment ideas?
Stocks in funeral homes? Shorting insurance stocks? Gold shares?
Star fruit farms (they make Tamiflu out of it)
Until the worst case scenario is passed I think making any kind of investment plans may be premature. Manage what you have and keep an eye on things.
If you are really serious about this, research what was the best investment opportunities following the 1918 pandemic, after the 1929 Stockmarket collapse, in Germany following WWI and WWII when they had what amounts to economic collapse.
The problem is that we don’t know what of how many different systems are going to be affected financially.
Again, I’d concentrate on safeguarding and managing what you currently have. Check how much of your investment portfolio is insured by the FDIC to start with. I’d also try getting rid of any unsecured debt and/or lowering interest rates on secured debt.
OK, maybe the first post punked me, but I still answered it as seriously as I could. It was an honest question that has been asked by more than one person within my hearing.
I have no debt, I have a store of food, I have solar power, I have an independent water source, I have a car that gets 65 mpg, money in the bank and cash “under the mattress”, my home is isolated…..
I don’t believe most of the doom and gloom I see here. I doubt that there will be an economic collapse or corpses in the street or roving bands of half dead. I don’t believe as you said “worst case scenario” would even happen.
However, I do think there will be some economic fallout. Perhaps some goods and services delayed for a few weeks- Why focus only on the time of a pandemic and not the time after?
PS - sorry I “punked you” (what ever that means) but I don’t think that FDIC will be any safer than any other item if the worse does happen.
Don’t miss reading this thread and the links on it.
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.GlobalEconomicStrategistSpeaks
crfullmoon, thanks, now that is helpful I just cam to the site 2 days ago, and look but did not find that kind of info. Thanks
Oh and over at CurEvents, discussion:
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20470&highlight=economics+pandemic
US chicken stocks (PPC, SAFM, TSN, GKIS) have fallen about 50% but still have a long ways to go. Next wave? Maybe airlines (BAB), hotels, restruants, and other “public” places of business. On the upside maybe GBNT, NNVC and other biotechs working on vaccines.
Lots of financial and investment discussion at:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=7
In my humble opinion the best investment you could make is to reduce your debt. If you want to invest money in something, buy yourself a big heavy safe and use it to store things like gold or silver that can be easily liquidated. It may not be worth much during a flu pandemic but afterwards it could be sold or exchanged for just about anything. Stocks/bonds/mutual funds have their place but if the worst predictions come to pass some of them may not be worth much. If I were to invest in stocks it would be for common everyday items. Things people need and use everyday, something I know and understand. That is the same advice I have heard one of the most powerful wall street investors give. I forget what the guy’s name was but I remember he once said that he invested in Toys-R-Us stock because he understood what their business did, what they sold. In short, invest in what you understand. It makes sense.
Bought stock in Alpha Pro Tech a mask and protective equip. manufacture…it is doing well so far.
Don’t forget to prepare to not get infected, and to survive supply chain disruptions, or you may not live to profit by it.
Poppy, I think you’ve got the right idea…
I’m with Poppy. Investing in the stock market as we know it is heading into “unknown” and “very deep” waters. What might appear to be a good investment has absolutely no history as far as standing up under such a crisis. We would really need to know so much about their infrastructure, management, crisis management, risk management….all of these things are unproven in a company during a pandemic. My own investment strategy is to switch some funds over to more secure holdings and the rest is to remain with companies that have been in the business a long time and have a solid infrastructure. Investing in companies that may have a “hot” product in a pandemic does not mean that they are able to flourish in a pandemic. I think it is risky business and should only be done with monies that one can afford to lose. Rather like going to Las Vegas….
My “day” job is to trade stocks for my own portfolio and my son’s. Been doing it full time since 2002. I am a trader, not an investor and buy/sell something almost every day. The link crfullmoon posted above is excellent. I have a lot of respect for Don Coxe, and he is one of only a couple of analysts I pay attention to. he has a monthly column that is published at http://www.harrisnesbitt.com/bresource/ as well as a weekly webcast. He occasionally refers to his August notes about bird flu, but right now he continues to promote metals (zinc, silver, gold, copper, lead) and oil and gas. That being said, energy will not be the place to invest and most of the commodity related things I own will be gone if this virus achieves H2H.
I invested in three biotech companies, two of whom have partnerships with Kleiner Perkins, the Silicon Valley venture capital firm who is investing about $200 million in companies who may have an edge in getting the vaccine delivered. I figure if its good enough for them, its good enough for me and I own BCRX and NAVX— but just a small amount. I also own GNBT who presented at the Avian Flu conference in DC last week. The volatility in this kind of asset is awful and the stock goes up and down for reasons that have nothing to do with their news or fundamentals. I am not betting the rent money on them. A lot of traders are playing this market place. I don’t know yet if I bought right or not.
If/when this goes H2H, I will be almost all cash except for some foreign gold mining stocks with some CD’s laddered locally with Washington Mutual.
If you have never invested much before and don’t have the time to watch things, be very very cautious. Clearly industries that produce meat (most of them do poultry as well), restaurants, travel related, retail, etc. will not do well. Funeral homes may— sorry to say. hope this helps
Short the chickens and long the cows.
I started a thread a while ago with information about a new fund that was established for companies developing products for avian flu. Can’t remember more, but it’s here somewhere
What happened to the CIDRAP list of companies that went to the pamdemic planning business conference Feb 14th; not sure if they listened or implememnted, but, they went. (So did Gaudia Ray?)
pandemic, wish I could type. or proofread.(or edit)(or sleep well.)
More suggestions about possible investments:
http://www.smartmoney.com/aheadofthecurve/index.cfm?story=20060303
GaudiaRay went to the meeting and is posting the results of his trip on the financial forum at FluTrackers. There are many threads there discussing: stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, economics, and pandemic financial planning. There are several financial experts who are posting pandemic financial analysis at http://www.FluTrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?F=7 The financial phases in the pandemic are also discussed.
Sorry, no caps in link http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=7
Las Vegas is very vulnerable
Tourism and gaming are the major forces behind Las Vegas’ economy. $9 billion dollars a year is spent on gaming alone. In turn, that feeds the restaurant and retail industries. Taxable sales in Clark County are over $32 billion a year. A pandemic could quickly wipe all that out overnight.
Most tourists arrive in Las Vegas by airline. I don’t think anybody will argue that a lethal pandemic will effectively shut down the airline industry. People won’t fly unless they have to.
And when people do venture out, they’ll avoid places where there’s a high level of human contact. The media reports a majority of Americans will hole up at home. They’ll cocoon. Who in their right mind would choose to risk infection sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with strangers at a blackjack table, crowd around a craps pit or play the same slot machines hundred of other potentially ill people have been touching?
more…
(LasVegas shouldn’t be out in the desert sucking water from everywhere- what an unsustainable city…)
Here’s the CIDRAP list of businesses that went to the continuity summit in Feb (they may not all go back and follow advice, prep their employees, ect)
https://programs.regweb.com/metro/cidrap/1/index.cfm?page=organizations
Personally I work at the second largest Casino in the world. The two largest are in the state of CT, by the way.
I have a 401K that is doomed in my opinion. I tried this past week to “liquidate it” (get my money out, but because 401K’s are “controlled by the IRS” (harship withdrawls for only a rediculous set of reasons), I see my savings “going right down the tube”…
I’ve read where economists have stated that if a full blown pandemic occurs, the market will plunge in such a way that “it’ll make Oct-Nov `29 look good”.
Does anyone know a way around the IRS ? …They tell me that I have to present immediate overwhelming medical bills / or / be purchasing a primary residense / or / I have to quit my job to get my money.
I agree with Jeff - at 01:15 Tourism is going to get slammed when B2B hits America… It took almost a year after 9/11 before our “number” returned to normal .
I know next to nothing about investing. Would moving my 401K to cash money market preferably short term treasuries be a good idea? Next to having the money in my hand is this the safest route?
tc_in_CT -
Some ideas - You may want to rescue your money in stages. First stage, see if you can do a roll-over to an individual IRA. This may or may not be possible in your plan. Some will only let you do that if you leave your job first. If you can do a roll-over, then I would try to place it in a bank in an FDIC insured instrument. (This is the first stage of getting your money out).
Once the money is resident in an individual IRA, then you can probably arrange to make a premature distribution. Understand that this is a very costly thing to do. In such a premature distribution (under age 59–1/2) you will pay tax on the full amount as ordinary income at the marginal tax rate applicable to your earnings for the year (i.e. highest tax rate you reach based on income). They will also nick you an additional 10% penalty tax for the early wihdrawal. So you need to fully understand the ramifications of everything you do. (It can easily cost you about half the cash in the 401K if you do it wrong, plus incur penalty taxes for unpaid estimated withholdings).
I am not a tax adviser, nor have I played one on TV. Unless you are crystal clear about the whole procedure, you need to consult with a qualified accountant who advises on tax matters. (We are not talking about corner seasonal tax preparers here, this is a pro).
But at least, if you can roll your 401K into an individual IRA, you will have a whole lot more control over where it is and what it is doing.
Again, PLEASE do not act on this item. Speak with someone in the tax advisary business before you touch a thing.
who makes ventilators?
Too Few Ventilators for Bird Flu Crisis “Right now, there are 105,000 ventilators, and even during a regular flu season, about 100,000 are in use. In a worst-case human pandemic, according to the national preparedness plan issued by President Bush in November, the country would need as many as 742,500.”
Eccles – at 16:45 “see if you can do a roll-over to an individual IRA.”
That I don’t know, but I’m going to find out REAL soon…
Yes I realize that I’ll lose medium% by cashing out… If I’m left with 60%, it’s a whole lot better then having 10% left, which is what I fear if the market really dives , as I have seen predicted…
For those of you , who are reading my “vision of coming financial events”, I would take heed, but also take it with a grain of salt the size of CT…. I am able to “administer my 401K” / choosing poorly from the 20 options that are available to me through my company’s fund… The problem is that here is that there are no available options that are PANFLU PROOF… No matter my choices, I’ll loose most or about all in a severe economic downturn.
My goal, is to try to “secure” what I have…
Eccles , anyone --- Do you think the FDIC would remain “solvent” through a major economic crisis? I remember seeing pictures of people with a wheelbarrow full of money on there way to get a loaf of bread, at the beginning of the “Great Depression”.
I guess what I’m asking is: Do you think there is any chance that the Federal Deposit INSURANCE Corp (company?) might go belly up?
tc_in_CT - The images of the wheelbarrow of money come from Germany and the hyper-inflation it experienced during the 1920′s. Not relevant to this discussion. The problem there was fiat currency printed to pay off war reparations.
As for whether the FDIC remains solvent or not. If the FDIC folds up, then the entire economy will have reverted to an agrarian barter system. In that case, you would do well to own large stocks of salt, tools and seeds. Unless you are willing to gamble that things will go completely down the toilet, then moving to an instrument which is still backed by the US government is your best bet.
We can argue about what speculative ventures might or not be the best, but unless we see the collapse of the world economy and the emergence of local warlords, then a sound local bank with FDIC backed instruments is the current best advice I know how to come up with.
Stock symbol APT has been doing nicely
Anon - Pumping is not appropriate here. Please refrain from stock pumping posts like this again.
Eccles – at 16:45 & Eccles – at 17:29 Thank you …. sound advice….
sorry that was me not Tomcat…
dag-burned drop down thingy, then hit post…
Y’all..I looked into companies from the list in the Canadian economist Report produced by a Dr. Sherry Cooper, of Nesbitt Burns in British Columbia. It’s on Fluwikie somewhere. It’s called “Don’t Fear Fear, Don’t Panic Panic.” dated Tuesday, October 11, 2005.
My financial adviser just called to check on things. I asked him if I should move my investments into a safe harbor, such as bonds or money market because of the Avian Flu threat. He said I was the first client to ask about that. He admitted that he was not that knowledgeable about Avian Flu. I appreciated that he did not try to BS me. He said there has not been any chatter among his advisors but he is going to investigate and get bac with me. I also gave him the URL to Fluwikie.com. I was sooooo surprised that I was the first to ask about this.
The organizations that were registered at CIDRAP’s Business Continuity Conference last month can be found here:
https://programs.regweb.com/metro/cidrap/1/index.cfm?page=organizations
Doesn’t mean that their industry will fare well (not travel not matter what they do), but it looks like they are aware of the problem, and being proactive in finding what strategies they can to survive as an entity and perhaps help their people.
That’s far ahead of most organizations.
Dr C…
In looking over the list of companies that attended, yes it is a positive step in the right direction that they were willing to attend that conference.
However, I can’t help but feel a weight in the pit of my stomach when I see so few companies, when compared to all the businesses in the US, that are taking this seriously.
Perhaps it’s just a time issue…as things become more critical, more ears will perk up.
Real Estate mutual funds seem the place to be nowadays. It seems to me that if a pandemic should occur, these funds would weather the storm well. Real estate is tangible, just like gold, oil. Your thoughts?
Experts say: Markets will weather the flu
Great news:
Anon at 18:58: The prognosis for a high CFR panflu is a brief hyperinflation followed by deflation. Real Estate will miss out on the hyperinflation phase, (who wants to invest in land or office buildings in the middle of a pademic?). The rest of the tangibles will briefly be in high demand, if the transportation and distribution of those goods starts to break down.
Longer term, Real Estate would be a bad, bad bet for a very long time. During the Great Depression of the 1930s all types of Real Estate were fearfully bought for pennies on the dollar. It took many years for land and property values to make it back to their previous levels. My Grandfather repeatedly kicked himself for not buying up land, but he did not know how long the Depression would last.
Finally, if we have several million (or more) people die there will be a lot of empty houses, empty apartments. And with a lot of small businesses going under, the lease rates for office space will plummet. It is not a pretty picture.
Get out now, and buy into Real Estate six months after you thought it couldn’t go any lower. Then, you might not get stung.
Bic lighters
3M makers of N95 masks? Starkist Tuna?
Have a look at Biota code BTA on the australian stock exch They made the very first neuradimase inhibitor - relenza and are in trials with the first third generation antiviral(long acting neuradimaze inhibitor)a version of relenza that only has to be taken once per week also looks like relenza may be the antiviral of choice soon as bird flu is becomming resistent to tamiflu in some studies while relenza has no resistence and several other advantages.once inhaled it goes straight to the lung and is fully active within minutes (very important when time is of the essence in trying to stop your immune system overreacting to the bird flu)also i read a new report today which has found that the virus gets deep into the alvioli of the lung - that would make relenza more effective than tamiflu which has been grabing all the haed lines to date
relenza has major advantages, but is confined to the lung whereas tamiflu hits the other organs that H5N1 does (relenza does not).
Any futher suggestions about stocks will be removed as spam. This is the only thread the comment belongs on.
Dr. Sherry Cooper, who is a pandefender colleague with Dem and me has this to say about the economic fallout of possible pandemic. Sherry is the chief economist at the Bank of Montreal/Nesbitt Burns investment advisors.
Read and prepare.
so, she says what BankMontreal tells her say and not necessarily what she really thinks ?
BTW. someone made an index of bird-flu stockshttp://tinyurl.com/ljx7lyou can watch how it went up in October and now in March. That could be an indicator, how likely the pandemic is/how bad it is expected to be.
The only “dead cert” is funeral homes.
Check out http://birdfluinvestmentstrategy.com
Chicken stocks (SAFM, PPC, and TSN) look like they had a dead chicken bounce and are going lower. When BF actually gets here they will go much lower.
YUM looks like it would be a good hedge.
Please read about the difference between FDIC and SIPC. SIPC is an insurance program that insures against losses if a stock brokerage fails. It is not FDIC or “blanket protection against all losses”.
Is there any insurance to cover pandemic losses ?Is it possible anywhere in the world to reasonably speculate
on a pandemic occurring ?
Maybe like an intrade-contract on pandemic victims
rather than BF-being confirmed in US.
Or some stock of a company which certainly goes bankrupt in a pandemic
but has constant non-panflu buisiness with few changes.
Some insurance with lots of expected panflu-payments maybe.
Or how about a “future” on panflu-deaths
paying $x per WHO-estimated H5N1-deaths by 2010 ?
Everyone needs to finish their financial preps now while the markets are strong.
There could be a very fast financial reaction to confirmed and sustained H2H H5N1 transmission.
Once the markets start to react, your plans may not be able to be executed in the manner you wish. There are automatic stops programmed into the New York Stock exchange that may occur if the index loses too much value.
In addition, I personally do not like the SiPC insurance plan in the case of a pandemic. This is the insurance that protects against brokerage company failure. This plan is not government guaranteed.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3304
As an additional problem, the world’s hedge fund have flocked to the Asia region to take advantage of higher rates of return there. This is an area that could feel the first impact of sustained and confirmed H2h transmission.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1946
There is precedent for this. Alan Greenspan personally arranged a $4 billion USD bailout of a hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1999. Since it had placed options on $1.25 trillion USD of government bonds, a collapse of LTCM would have affected markets all over the world. That is why Greenspan became personally involved. A collapse of the international hedge funds that begins as the markets in Asia react to sustained H2H transmission would impact the rest of the world’s markets quickly.
So, please consider, if you believe that H5N1 is a real threat, finishing your financial preps. __________________ All posts are for entertainment value only and are not to be taken as advice.
Older thread, closing for speed purposes.
check dates