I cannot help but wonder what life will be like after this all happens. What are some of your thoughts? How long will it take to resume life as pre Pandemic?
I have no problem with life after the pandemic. I’m worried about life during the pandemic.
Didn’t the Roaring 20′s happen after the 1918–1919 Spanish Flu pandemic? I would say that if we are comparing this possible pandemic to that one about what could happen during a pandemic then we also should look at what happened after that one to give us some ideas about what might happen after this pandemic.
The 1918 pandemic if present at all in our high school American History texts is treated in a paragraph. It is not a thing that stuck in the national consciousness. Hundreds of thousands of personal tragedies were dealt with on an individual basis. 1919 was followed by 1920, the beginning of the roaring 20’s. The pandemic may have convinced that generation of their own mortality and caused a live for the moment attitude to become wide spread. If the current outbreak follows the 1918 model, the next few years might be a time of personal excess. It might produce one big party.
Mortality rates of 50% are a different matter. The only thing that even approaches those numbers was the black death pandemic. The black death caused a paradigm shift in Europe. There were the prince Prosperos who tried to lock themselves in their castles and avoid the plague. There were the flagellates that tortured themselves in an effort to try to appease God’s wrath. There were the witch hunters who tried to find scapegoats. Their were brigands who traveled the countryside and preyed on their fellows. In the end, it weakened the power of the church because prayer did not keep the plague away. It weakened governments because political promises did not keep the plague away. The plague was a great equalizer. It killed the high and the low, the religious and the irreverent. In the end, it gave us the Renaissance and the flowering of the European mind.
Well, I know from family discussions with my family members who went through the 1918 pandemic people went on with their lives, but people who survived were often deeply traumatized by what they went through and carried the horrific stories down until the generations that followed were so far removed from the event as not to understand the actual tragedy that unfolded at the time.
I don’t think we can “crystal ball” this possibly looming event because we don’t know how this thing might unfold.
We can’t ignor the vast difference in life-styles of those living in 1918, and now. Here in New Brunswick every family was farming and the small percentage of city folks were closely connected to the local farming community. The 1918 event killed in every family, but they always had food and the means to produce more. Money was something most people didn’t have much of, and really didn’t need any great amount of. Look at us now. A garden is someones luxury to grow, who can afford the time. Time is money. The farmland is grown up in bushes. The whole infrastructure of small family farms is gone. Individual and family independence has been replaced by total dependence on oil, electricity, banks, and supermarkets. Look at all of the tsunami devestation and how quickly the Third World economies have rebuilt, then look at New Orleans. Does anyone share my concern at just how vulnerable we are? The worst-case senerio for H5N1 is far more of a possibility now than nuclear war ever was in the sixtys, and Biology has its finger on the button, not thinking humans. I don’t want to look into the “crystal ball” for fear of what I might see. My fingers are crossed, but I’m bitting my nails.
We still have many farms here in Jersey. I notice that one of my local farmers has help from Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, in the summers. Also Central Americans, mostly here on work permits since its seasonal work. Farming has changed. Our country is fed fruit from Chile in the winters as well as fruit from Florida, and California. We aren’t eating with the seasons as my parents did. We are very pampered and very spoiled. For some of us this all is a wakeup call.
Take the long view here. Pandemics exert tremendous force upon human society. The Black Death turned medieval Europe on its head, with political upheaval that resulted in the Peasant’s rebellion, religious turmoil that helped to crack the monolithic presence of the Roman Catholic Church, economic shifts that moved wealth away from the nobility towards the middle class along with liberation of serfs into free laborers, and intellectual changes, such as the translation of the Bible from Latin into modern languages (and then Gutenberg, who developed the technology to spread that knowledge—enhancing the growth of literacy among all levels of society!) In many respects the world we live in today owes much to what happened as a result of the Black Death.
This happened to a smaller extent after the plague of 1665--social tensions were increased as people saw that plague spares no one, including the rich and powerful. I think that there is a mindset after a great disaster that states I have nothing to lose, having lost all. Sometimes this willingness to explore and innovate leads to even more advances in society. Wars, disasters, pandemics end, but life goes on.
Jefiner
I think of Newton and all the ideas he developed in the plague years living away from London. I hate to say it but the earth can expect more pandemics since the population density is getting high. Most “living communities” become more easily stressed when the density goes up.
what will it be like?? My GUESS is some of the population driven growth from China and India will stop. Many people in the US and EU will work more from home and take fewer trips. Instead there will be more home “vacations” and improvements as people spend more time at home and less coming and going. It it reaches 50% death rate, the fuel supply and power plant development will change. Home ownership will increase. More people will opt for DVD’s over theaters.
I don’t see how we could compare post-pan 1918 to post-pan present.
A worst-case pandemic scenario would have the world living back in the stone age for many years….worst case.
nawty
I think it’s fair to say that the status quo will continue. Think about it… how is this (or any future) threat really different from previous ones? Yes the herd will thin, but society will go on.
Take a look around you right now. That’s what we’ll see in 2007. Take a look at the person to your left & flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you’ll celebrate their birthday that year.
Nothing will appreciably change, that is the nature of the human beast.
No I don’t think it will go back to the stone age. “worse case”- Half die, and half live. The half that lives will have the the books, the machines, the know how to go on.
The world can only be a better place. We’d be too afraid to factory farm animals, having learned the hard way that this causes disease and misery in both animals and humans. We’d be more wary of tampering with nature, again having learned the hard way that we will never win, and there could be a lot less people around to do that anyway. Food quality and overall health would be better as a result, and our planet may get a chance to rejuvenate somewhat.
The average human may be healthier, as the currently weakest would be most likely to succumb thus reducing many diseases and genetic conditions (this sounds callous, but is an observation rather than a desire to see the most vulnerable suffer). It would please me to see big pharma suffer as a result. Benefit scroungers would have no choice but to work like the rest of us as governments couldn’t afford to keep them in the style to which they’ve chosen to become accustomed (can you guess I’m in the UK?!). We wouldn’t worry so much about out careers, which normally involve making someone else really rich at the expense of our wellbeing, and would prioritize enjoying time with loved ones.
We may also learn to prioritize good nutrition, natural remedies and exercise over lazy reliance on big pharma as the way to good health, once everyone realizes they have no magic bullet and have the waiver to and probably will poison millions of people in the attempt to frankenfind one (FWIW, I have no intention of accepting tamiflu or a vaccine unless I’m strapped down and can’t escape).
We may relearn some self-sufficiency: I grow garden veg and herbs as my family have always done, but I know few people who currently have a clue how to do this. I’d keep chickens too, even now, if it wasn’t for my cats (fine beasts, who provide natural pest control and hot water bottle value, as well as love and affection).
And best of all, we may be more inclined to think for ourselves rather than rely on getting information and help from politicians who have only their own best interests at heart. Now *that* could bring about the biggest change for the better.
If that all sounds a bit too positive remember that negativity and stress dull your immune system, and that’s one thing you really do want to have in good working order if and when TSHTF. Forget the cytokine storm, it may be a real phenomenon but is a sign of a malfunctioning immune system not a healthy one (disclaimer: I’m not a doctor, just someone with common sense and healthy cynicism). Be prepared for but don’t worry too much about looters targeting domestic premises, that will be self-limiting if people are dropping like flies. Besides, they won’t want to risk *you* infecting *them*, and are more likely to target abandoned shops if it gets that bad.
In the meantime, live well and don’t spoil the present time by worrying about the future. Any one of us could get hit by a bus before a pandemic manifests, so enjoy the life you have.
Dizzy – at 17:42 ---
We’d be too afraid to factory farm animals, having learned the hard way that this causes disease and misery in both animals and humans.
The H5N1 virus, bird flu, is carried not by factory-farmed animals, but animals that are much more of the “free-range” type, as well as wild water fowl. This virus has absolutely nothing to do with “factory-farming” of poultry or livestock. Yet.
The average human may be healthier, as the currently weakest would be most likely to succumb…
I disagree with that statement, based on the fact that this virus seems to attack more and more very healthy, young people than older, weaker folks. The very young, children, and those between roughly 20 and 40 years old seem to be the “targets” due to their lack of any antibodies. Their lungs are clearer, making a better pathway for the virus to attack. Us old folks may have a better chance of surviving this thing, but where will the world be without a generation to grow up and take over the many jobs that in just a few short years we won’t be able to do anymore?
Methinks that
Dizzy – at 17:42 --- (FWIW, I have no intention of accepting tamiflu or a vaccine unless I’m strapped down and can’t escape).
Uhm…good luck.
Dizzy - All your assumptions are based upon the majority of people learning from their mistakes, learning from history, and changing for the better. I appreciate your optimism and agree 100% with enjoying the life you have. But, we humans generally do not learn as well in practice as in theory. I think the climb up from this will be exponentially proportionate to the degree of its severity. I also hope and pray we don’t get double or triple whammied by any man made or natural disasters at the same time.
Sorry if this is politically incorrect…. but- about the human health after-
I cannot help but wonder if a high percentage of AIDS infected humans will die. Look at what is happening in Guatemala right now with some kind of flu: 18 of 45 died in the hospital and most were with AIDS related complications. The point is that a pandemic might very well target many of those with AIDS, and other complications.
I have to take exception to the notion that housecats are always “fine beasts.” I don’t mind the in-door variety but folks that let cats out in the neighborhood cause songbird deaths and poop in my kid’s sandbox and vegie beds.
The period after the 1918–19 pandemic is called “the great forgetting” by some medical historians. People were so horrified by what had just happened that they were unable to speak of it. If I can find you links to any writing on this topic, I’ll post them. The only book I know about it is no longer in print.
People tell me that their older relatives who survived it and were old enough to have some sense of the enormity cannot speak about it to this day.
It depends on what “after” means. After what? It may well travel through the biosphere until immunity develops, but what about the infrastructure?
Given the age ranges <40, we could lose a generation around the world. Osterholm described it well how dependent we are on a very thin veneer of supply chains, and I haven’t got a clue how to run an electrial plant, sewage treatment, dairy, and so on, and most of the population doesn’t either. So what are we supposed to live on for the years it will take to re-start our complex society. Not to mention the infrastructures of other complex societies we depend on (Need oil?)
http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp
In the mean time, there are still health problems we won’t be able to treat, hurricanes, tornandos and earthquakes that go on, no matter how we are doing. How about all those people living in Las Vegas, Phoenix, LA (and everywhere else)? What are they going to be eating and drinking? And who is going to give it to them? How will it get there?
After is a relative term.
Ceredwin
“What are they going to be eating and drinking? And who is going to give it to them? How will it get there? “
As you ponder such things, remember that it may not be as hard to supply and get things to people since there may be only half as many that need to be supplied. (for example at 50% death rate). Also there will be a lot of people that will come out of retirement to help with electric plants and so on. The group that survives will still have the books, twice as many machines as they need, less structure to support, more farm land per person, half the oil to import,….. and so on.
For example, with half the grains needed to be supplied, the farming techniques don’t have to be as good. (twice the acres for a harvest to supply everyone). Knowledge will survive.
Osterholm projects a year to work out a vaccine, first year maybe 200 million doses for the WHOLE WORLD, not just us. There is only ONE vaccine production site in the entire USA. Thus maybe many years before we will trust being near each other. Alot of infrastructure can go bad in that time.
I was just trying to point out that it is going to be very difficult supporting populations in areas that have to import everything to sustain themselves even NOW.
What comes after depends on just what happens. If we start with the basic premise that I live by: Every hundred years - all new people, this gives us a rough death rate of approximately 1% per year.
(Please do not dive down my throat. This is a rough number for the purposes of an order of magnitude assessment only. Please take your actuarial tables, etc. outside).
Given that number, if we experience a 30% rate of infection, it would take about a 3% CFR to roughly double the current death rate. Most cultures could absorb that and not even notice. it would take a CFR of about 10% before we saw serious dsruption.
Given that the highest fatality rates would be in the tens through 40 year old group, things would be recoverable as long as the 40–66 year olds were reasonably well represented. Us older but still able folks could regain control of things and get them running again.
We would need to recall many from retirement, and many now working as greeters at Wally-Worls, they having been put there by the agist policies of “Tommy the Wonder MBA” who asumed that older meant more expensive and therefore layed anyone over 35 off.
If the CFR goes much over 10%, then we would have difficulty maintaining the current infrastructure, and then things wold become sproadic and unpleasant. For A CFR between say 10% and 25%, refer to descriptions of Argentina following its economic collapse. For anything over a 25% CFR, a retrun to regional warlords and brigandism is one possible outcome.
All my opinion. YMMV.
The other good news would be that “Tommy the Wonder MBA” and others like him, being in the younger, more susceptible age group, would be among the decimated ranks, and we could get things running under more rational less “just-in-time” organizational policies.
During the Roaring 20s people were generally thought to be more prosperous than before. Though that was not the case. The weak link in the economy was the agricultural sector. In 1929 only three percent of the workforce was unemployed. People also had more leisure time. The party ended with the great depression which began with the stock market crash in October 1929. At the depth of the depression, in 1933, 25% of the American workforce was unemployed.
The economic statistics of the 1920′s: http://bss.sfsu.edu/tygiel/Hist427/texts/1920seconomy.htm
In our current economy we have several factors which are similar one of which is a high war debt. I think we may again see a similar economic outcome after an avian flu pandemic. The economy will seem to boom for a time then bust.
I get the sense that this thing is going to run its coarse and kill alot of people, maybe 10%, and we’er going to continue on our merry way and maybe even have a roarin’ teens. So what am I worried about? If we can bury ourselves back in the woods with a half-ton of grub come out when its over, we”ll have a great ol’ time, lots of opportunity. what, me worry? The Titanic is unsinkable.Historically, I think of one entire indigenous population of N. and S. America was 98% decimated in the late 1500′s. Correct me if I’m wrong, surely disease has brought about the demise of other civilizations.?
I think this prediction is overly pessimistic. The entire available effort of the world will go into making a vaccine. Even in the midst of a pandemic, the entire available effort of the world is HUGE. I am in no position to predict what the actual elapsed time might be, but I feel safe in saying that basing what will be done in the midst of a pandemic on what our current capacities are is not reasonable (pharms don’t make money from vaccine production, so it is currently a poor cousin to all the other stuff pharms do).
I have just begun reading John Kelly’s The Great Mortality. It’s and intersting read about the Black Death. I don’t lose faith that the system will survive, but clearly so rough times are ahead.
>I have just begun reading John Kelly’s The Great Mortality. It’s and intersting read about the Black Death. I don’t lose faith that the system will survive, but clearly so rough times are ahead.
I agree, but whilst our institutional health system can add almost nothing in the short term (in the longer term developing a vaccine), the general level of education of the populace, and our superior communication systems (which will survive in the short term) definately put us at a huge advantage over dark ages ancestors.
Where we are at a disadvantage (in the very short term) is the higher speed of travel, and higher population densities. The problem with BF for our society, is that it will be nowhere one day, and everywhere the next day.
Once the situation is revealed; however, we are far more resilient than those in the dark ages (we understand the form of transmission, we don’t *need* to physically present to communicate, we don’t need to leave our houses to get water/firewood/food, we have protective gear that are reasonably effective). No one in the dark ages had a wiki where they could discuss preparations for the coming plague for instance (knowledge is power).
Even compared to the last pandemic (in 1968 - in which I was a victim and almost died) our ability to respond/adapt is light years ahead.
Consumerism has driven the economy moreso than any other time at least in Europe, Americas and recently Asia. Much different picture than after WW2 when house & auto industries took off. Individual debt loads are very high in USA & almost as high in Canada- don’t know about Europe or Asia. There would be a lot of government “speak” to get back to work, start consuming again & move forward. However if the under 40′s get hit hard & we’ve got so many babyboomers it is going to be tough to rebuild an economy based on consumer spending. Babyboomers are not the ideal market for this type of spending; they will want to figure out how to retire in comfort. I know in my area every business, store, factory etc. have “hiring new workers” signs; whose going to fill these jobs. Do we think babyboomers will? Unless we become a global neighborhood working together & redirect our economy away from consumerism to whatever comes next I predict we’ll see many lean years ahead.
My guess; immigrants. Boomers will still control a lot of wealth, and they will place a high demand on service industry.
Nope. Have you read about the large wave of immigration to the US in 1920 (4 million immigrants in that year)? Perhaps that had something to do with the 1918? and the desire to fill those vacated jobs?
One thing to contemplate is that there will likely be a huge wealth transfer. Just because BF hits younger individuals harder, doesn’t mean that it won’t hit boomers as well. There will be a large transfer of boomer wealth to younger people that survive, and across the demographic to other boomers. This will shake things up considerably. One outcome I can imagine is that interest rates will be very low (lots of boomer wealth chasing far fewer investment opportunities), oh and forget about real-estate prices (lots of empty real-estate).
Interest rates low? When everyone is bankrupt and no money to spend and massive unemployment, it seems like folks would have to offer high interest rates to get the few who have money to invest. I’m no economist, but the gov’t might set low rates, but the banks may have higher ones, just like how short term rates are equaling long term rates.
It’s a big “who knows?” to me.
A lot of old people (like me) will need to go back to work and work longer for 2 reasons:
1. 20–40 year olds will have the largest mortality rate leaving a gaping hole in the labor force.
2. Social Security won’t exist any more because those (20–40) were the folks who supported that ponzi scheme.
As to point 1, just as there was a “baby-boom” after world war II there will be a “baby-bust” after a pandemic because of the reduced population of couples of child bearing age. That will result in fewer geezers 60 years down the line so they can probably crank SS back up again.
What does not kill you will make you stronger.
As long as we don’t let this pandemic break us emotionally or spiritually, we will CERTAINLY come out stronger. The tricky part is to make sure that we stay emotionally stong. Post-traumatic stress is wicked.
I think for those of us who prepared and armed ourselves with food, supplies, education to get ourselves and our families through this, we will be unstoppable in the years after! I believe we will feel empowered and very blessed. This will enable us to go on and do great things.
This implies that social security exists now :-)
The baby-bust will be the cause of cheap real estate.
I’m also more worried about life during the pandemic than after it. I’m willing to do whatever I have to in order to survive. If it means going back to the 1800′s and living off the land afterwards, so be it. If not, all the better.
I actually think there might be a baby boom. A lot of people will be cooped up while self-quarantining, and if they’re not sick, they’ll probably er…repopulate the planet. ;)
As for SS, I have no illusions that even if the Avian flu doesn’t hit, I won’t have any. I’m 30 and expect to be working til I’m 70, provided I stay healthy.
I am a young mother, i am aware of the risk that is ahead of us, but i also have children i feel the need to be prepared and im a situation were i can do so. Most people my age I talk to are not on the same wave-length. My generation has never been faced with anything like this before and as far as im concerned find themselves to be invisible. My friends now think ive most cerainly gone off the deep end. there is no explaining the importance of this to them, they just have closed eyes and deaf ears. What im getting at is a baby boom depends on those capable of doing so…. what if they arn’t listening. Im not trying to be negative im just concerned with what iv’e seen so far amoungst my age group…
IMHO, it’s not just the Gen-Xers. I’ve noticed a lot of apathy in baby-boomers as well. Nobody thinks the Avian flu will affect them seriously. They’re not going to care unless and until the mainstream media starts hyping it up.
EmilyH. I am not so sure about the baby boom afterwards. I am more worried about millions of people with signficant “post-tramatic stress syndrome”. I could be very wrong, but I think if you are locked up inside of a house for an extended period of time watching death and destruction all around you, you are more likely to spend your time either: A) Fighting like hell to survive, or B) Slipping into despair and depression. I don’t think sex will be on the agenda as it was during the Blackout in NYC. We could probably test that theory with Katrina. How many women got pregnant during that time? My bet is that sex was far, far, far from their minds.
Having said this, you are dead right about the “apathy” amongst all age groups. It seems to be non-discriminating! It is pervasive across the ages and sexes.
Jamet,
Birth rate may climb unlike Katrina because of having people confined together for long time without access to birth control. Which brings up something for some to include in their preps.
I think there very well may be a “baby boom” after such an event as pandemic. People facing their own possible death on a daily basis often need to confirm for themselves that they are ALIVE. Sexual relations are the antithesis of death. People often turn to physical comfort as a way of denying the darkness around them. People really do need to think about birth control. My understanding is that pregnant women and their babies are at increased risk. I wouldn’t want to face pregnancy in those kind of conditions. I can’t imagine many people would.
Think the plague. While there was war during the plauge, this was not the rule. Day to day, it was a miserable, if relatively uneventful existance sprinkled with the slow death of loved ones; Depressing yes, but not exactly what I would characterize as mayhem.
Think 1918. Again, while life was miserable, society did not collapse. The history of this type of event, shows that it is not like war. There are some incidents of civil unrest, but basically it just sucks. People are either too sick to cause trouble, or too afraid of getting sick to cause trouble.
This is addressed to the moderators -
Is there an area of the fluwikie where certain religious implications of this topic could be discussed? As I Christian I have beliefs regarding teachings in the Bible about end times and I see strong indications of connections with what a severe pandemic can/may cause. I would really appreciate the input and/or insight from educated, sensible people who have no preconceived ideas along this line. Just for example: one of the things taught is the sudden appearance of a world economic order - with a pandemic with a high CFR, what is the potential of it causing something like this to come about? I see no usefulness in a debate on who believes whether these ‘Biblical’ things will occur, just in the potential for a major pandemic to cause them? Does that make sense? I know the ‘script’ says take it someplace else, but there is no place else where this is being discussed intelligently, without hysteria, without the “repent or die” propaganda being the rule of the day.
EOD,
You and I might want to email about this. I’m a Christian theologian, but not an “end times” evangelical, which you seem to be. Let’s talk about this and see if we can find a way to discuss the topic in a way which doesn’t disturb “the force of the wiki.” Emails for the mods are on the left tab bar under “About.”
I don’t have an answer to this question but would like to add it to the conversation. Assuming for the moment that the pandemic is even half as bad as Nabarro/Leavitt/Webster have said AND we somehow manage to keep utilities up and running BUT we are all quarantined in our homes will you want to know what’s happening out there or will you withdraw from TV and Internet when it comes to the pandemic news. I try to imagine a day of quarantine; then a week, then a month then a year. The effects of such an event on our minds and hearts let alone the physical is a great concern to me. Have you thought about how you will structure your day? Deal with cabin fever? I was once kept in a cabin because of minus 40 degree weather for 5 days; with 2 couples, 2 children and 2 dogs. No electricity, no water (lots of snow) and a wood stove, no indoor toilet. I’ll never forget how small that cabin seemed to get. Imagine a year of that. I think preps should include not just games for kids, but thinking about a new routine; anyone got suggestions?
PG,
I spent two years living alone and unemployed. The first thing you do is set up a schedule, a routine. It almost doesn’t matter what you do, but that you do it at the same time every day. It’ll keep you sane.
I have thought about this alot. I think there has to be routine. I am an elementary teacher with 2 young children and plan to schedule as I do at school. School work time, free time, reading time, exercise, alone time, devotionals. I plan to prep books, crossword puzzles, art projects
Interesting that I am a teacher and can’t put punctuation at the end of a sentence. :)
Melanie: “I spent two years living alone and unemployed.”
Is that before you found “useful work” as a theologian?
Are you a theologue or do you just chase stuff around in that old Bad-Book? Have you spent any time with the work of the Jesus Seminar?
I’m grateful (awareness, gratitude and compassion - the cardinal virtues) for your efforts here but a bit nonplused by your self description as a Christian theologian.
Just curious (take it off line or ignore…).
This thread is unraveling
What the heck is this religious stuff? Does it matter how someone identifies oneself? Are we not all humans and do we really need to be devisive? I would think that it is in our best interests to be cooperative and accept one another without being judgemental. I have nothing against religion but it is a lot like other intimate things, best practiced in privacy. Tymp-Self-righteousness is contradictory to Christ teachings.
tympanachus – at 20:59 Your comments are rude, sarcastic and offensive. Melanie deserves an apology at once.
I think the families that will get through the cabin fever best are those that will be able to carve out personal space for themselves. Those that have a room where they can go to do their own thing be it reading sewing art or some other hobby or craft they enjoy without too much noise or forced interaction with other family members may fare better. It’s not so much the ability to isolate from ones family but just the chance to be alone with one’s own thoughts that may be helpful. Likewise I think a specific family time together everyday such as at dinner, will also be helpful.
Just caught this thread. I go back to what I said earlier: to stay sane, you set up a routine.
tymp, I really am a theologian with a degree from a Roman Catholic institution. I consider myself a universalist. If you don’t know what that means, email me (all of the mods email addresses are over in the left side navigating tabs at “About Flu Wiki.”) We don’t do religion, politics, gun control or survivalism on the Wiki. All of those things are worth talking about, but there are other places to do them. Mostly, we talk about flu here. If you have other issues, there are other places to work them out.
What will it be like after? Major sadness. Everyone will have lost loved ones. A lot of grieving.(Some people will actually wish that they never survived.) Lonliness. Empty holes in relationships that will never be filled. Confusion. Children with no parents. Parents with no children. Single parents who were not single parents before. Elderly people all alone with no family left and no spouse, no one to care about them or care for them. Food shortages. Lost jobs because of lost employers, lost markets. Lost incomes. Suicides. Lawlessness and an atmosphere of ‘every man for himself’ as people struggle to survive in a new world with little or no conveniences. A lot of empty homes with no surviving owners.
The survivors will probably get together and plan a strategy to carry on. Like water finding a new level, life will carry on. Then, like after a big rain storm, the sun will come out. The world will be a cleaner place to live. People will have a deeper appreciation and respect for their environment. There will be a ‘back to the earth’ movement as people scramble to grow food. The survivors will make new rules to try to avoid making the same mistakes over. Try to rebuild the health of the planet, the birds, the animals, the plants and growing things, the water, the people. Nobody will forget…for a long, long time.(2 generations).
Like most everyone posting above, I too have to qualify my expectations by saying ‘It depends very much on the death rate and how long the series of waves each last and then the collective time of social-economic disruption.
What saddens me is, taking even a very middle ground for my predictions, I come up with a very bleak picture indeed of ‘What Things Will Be Like’ in world civilisation when it’s finally over.
I will not expand much, but one or two instances. Shutting down a refinery, or a steel mill, is not at all like the turning off of a television receiver, etc. Indeed, if not done in a very measured and controlled sequence, either of those plants can be completely ruined. The workers can’t just ‘walk away’ and self-isolate and come back in 18 or so months and….
Even a Boeing 747 can’t just sit on the tarmac for a year and then just take off and fly. Dust, grit, moisture, rust all insidiously creep up on our machinery day-by-day.
Finally, the loss of even a very few key technical personnel can block an entire process. There are many specialised systems to a modern jet (as ONE example) and if hydraulics navigation and radio systems, tire changes, fuel purging and tank cleaning, etc etc do not EACH take place, the bird does not fly. It is operationally as dead as one of the culled chickens. Another casualty of H5N1.
And so on for thousands of cases. Farm machinery left idle, food canning factories, pharmasceutical plants, you name it.
This doesn’t even TOUCH on breakdown of the banking and credit systems, stock markets, etc…
So I find it very sad to add this aspect to all else in the excellent, relevant, even CORE postings above….
Older thread, closing for speed purposes.
check dates