See today’s article about stocks and bird flu:
Stocks fall after bird flu strain detection - Business Week
I sold all my stocks, moved these assets to money market. I hated to do this but it seems things are getting worse and worse with bird flu cases, not better. How do you all feel about this flu…..am I just paranoid???. Very depressing news all around.
We have been talking about this in another thread. I too have moved a large amount of my 401 k funds to a more secure, conservative investment. Treasury, CD’s, etc. Can’t hurt. You can always move it back if this thing blows over.
Also am getting more cash to have on hand. On the other thread, we also talked about the need to take a look at your insurance situation. Probably not a bad idea to make sure your Will is up to date. Hate to be morbid.
If you are having trouble getting your friends to prepare, send them the article about the stock market. Hitting someone in the pocketbook, “where it hurts” often gets their attention.
My husband is with the Federal Reserve Bank. They are having “practice drills” about working from home, etc. Financial folks are taking this very seriously - spending a ton of money in preparation, and they are not known to spend their money foolishly.
I think you decision to move funds was very wise. I did so last week.
Going to a financial seminar dinner meeting in half an hour, it should be very lively.
Great, let us know if the flu was even mentioned
:-)
YOu may want to consider stock..in companies that sell masks and bottled water
Money will not stop flowing just because of a crisis. It will mearly flow down a new channel. Bird Flu stocks like AVI Biopharma(AVII) are up 400% from last Feburary. If you know what people are going to need to get through “Coming Events”, invest in it!
viralprotein
You are right. However my main concern is with mutual funds (and 401k’s ). Today bird flu was mentioned in the above article and overseas funds took a licking.
I would suggest only investing in these companies that should benefit from a pandemic with money that you won’t need during the crisis. The stock market will probably take a major hit - it may even have to close temporarily if there isn’t enough manpower (most things are computerized today, but they still could be forced to close for a week or so during the worst of it).
There is no doubt that the economy and the stock market will rebound after all of this is over and done with and certain stocks will have really done well. However, I just wanted to make sure for myself that I had some more conservative investments in the event I needed to live off of them. Any monies that I don’t think I would require for a year’s worth of expenses, will undoubtedly stay in the market and may even invest in certain stocks that will benefit because of the crisis.
I have heard that there are certain investment companies in Australia that are helping their wealthier investors invest in stocks that will do well. This did not sit right with the general public when the word got out. They felt certain people were trying to benefit from a terrible human crisis.
If you are concerned about what happens in stock markets during a pandemic, look to what happened to the Hong Kong Market and the Canadian Market during SARS. Alot of panicked sell-off. It rebounded and did fine afterwards - just have to make sure that you are O.K. DURING it.
I am totally in AVII with my entire 401k and seeing the technology as being a life saver.
It WAS another terrible day in the market, but don’t panic. It has been bad since Feb 1st. It could also be because of Greenspans retirement. I was reading that historically it always goes down for a few weeks (or more) after a new Fed Chief takes over. That is probably a more contributing factor than the two dead birds in Hong Kong. Also January was an incredible month. There’s going to be a correction anyway. I was up more in January than I was up all last year. 25% more. I wouldn’t sell anything until the market goes back up alittle. One surprising event was the giant loss in metals. There really wasn’t a bright spot today. Even 3M was down and that’s a nice bird flu play. Maybe try the big players that repeatedly give good dividends or have large cash balance sheets to weather the storm. This may actually wind up being a great buying opportunity in the long run when everything settles down. If it’s next Tuesday and we are still dramatically down, let’s all panic together.
I implemented my Bird Flu trading strategy 3 months ago. I went short in my IRA (actually, I bought PUTS)on three chicken stocks PPC, SAFM, and TSN. I closed out the positions last week for a very healthy gain. I’m waiting for a dead chicken bounce and will initiate again for the next down leg.
If you only go long, check out STM. They just announced a new widget for detecting H5N1. I just bought calls today. And don’t forget to read:
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.GlobalEconomicStrategistSpeaks
according to the guys in the other thread about bartering there would be massive inflation in a pandemic and money would become worthless. Then stocks should be safer than cash ;-) Only one of the contradictions and absurdities I keep seeing in this pandemic context…
Wednesday, February 8th 2006
Qoute from:http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.GlobalEconomicStrategistSpeaks
Once an outbreak starts, where do you see commodity prices headed?
Commodity stocks have been among the best performing sectors in global financial markets. But their performance depends in large measure on continued economic strength in Asia, particularly China. So a runaway pandemic would hit commodity prices especially hard. The combination of collapsing demand fron China and India and the likelihood of a collapse in demand for housing and cars in the OECD nations would mean prices of base metals and steel would plunge.
Oil prices would also plummet, because of the ending of the China boom and because of the sudden reduction in the number of consumers in the OECD. There would be no rush into precious metals from other financial assets, if only because high global death rates would mean large scale estate liquidation of jewellery.
Yesterday we saw a wholesale sell off of Gold, Silver, Nickle, Copper, Oil, Aluminium, Lead and Zinc. Not one commodity was left untouched.
Could this big the big boys at the big end of town taking a position and covering their exposure in the event of a pandemic
the one thing I’ve wondered about is the affect on crops if H5N1 is also killing gadzillions of wild birds. Birds eat a lot of bugs and bugs have prodigenous amounts of offspring. Doesn’t the Bible say something about a loaf of bread being worth a bag of gold in the End Times pandemic?
Aussi, all the time rising gold prizes were seen as an indication of pandemic threat (see curevents !) now it’s falling prizes which predict the pandemic-fear ? The same article you quote also says that food-prices would “skyrocket”, but we saw another analysis here, which said the opposite. And none of this happened in 1918. So, what to believe ? Also, how can prices for “basic food,drug,water,energy, and safety supplies” skyrocket but we still have deflation ? Also, “oil prices would plummet” but “energy prices would skyrocket” looks like a contradiction to me.
Dow Jones ends up 107.58 points. I definitely believe now that my opinion that the birds in Hong Kong had nothing to do with the stock market being down yesterday is confirmed. Nigeria comfirms bird flu in about 40k dead chickens and the market still went up high. It just goes to show that people are still not looking at the bird flu as real yet. They are more worried about the yield curve or maybe it’s just alot of profit takers of late. It is so hard to really figure out now with so many online brokerages. The stockbrokers don’t have to talk to their investors so they don’t really get the feedback from them that they’ve gotten in the past. I think we are safe for the day.
Lisa. You need to pay attention to the HONG KONG STOCK MARKET…not necessarily to Dow Jones. It is what is happening overseas that is going to drive our future market, not what is happening today on the Dow.
At the financial seminar last night, the rep. said Chinese investments should be good. I don’t beleive it. They also had pushed a company annuity at 5% for life. Since its tied to mutual funds your basic investment would almost vanish if the stock market tanked, but you would receive that 5% for your lifetime. One very optimistic Chinese lady piped up “If I lived for a thousand years, how can I be sure that you’ll give me my money each year.” much laughter from the other chinese at her table.
I wondered if anyone has information about material related to the economic impact of the 1918 Pandemic. Specifically was there an upsurge of economic activity to re-supply and normalize worldwide economic activity in the years following the last wave of influenza?
I tried to find Dow numbers for that period … but was unsuccessful. Thanks
It is interesting to see what happened to the overseas and Canadian market during SARS. This might provide a more accurate picture of recovering from a health crisis versus what happened in 1918. Yes, SARS only killed 700 people, however, it created a market panic. Might be able to get some clues to what happened there. I am not sure how long it took to recover, though, it did recover which is good news. We will survive this.
Janet - I’m not sure I understand about the Hong Kong Market. Is that the market we were talking about yesterday? I read the article and couldn’t find mention of that market. I assumed we were talking about Wall Street. My mistake.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1589423
Lisa: Here is the link to the story about the “jitters” on the Hong Kong Stock Market. It seems that some pretty heavy hitters are rethinking their investment strategies.
Personally, I think we should leave the risky investing in companies that may flourish because of the pandemic to true professionals. It is SOOO risky. The company may have a much needed product for the pandemic, but we have no idea if the infrastructure will hold up under pandemic conditions. Too scary for me to invest in companies that I know nothing about unless it is with money that I won’t need during the next three to five years. I think if someone has “extra” funds and want to risk it, the payoff could be high…but, then again…
For me, I am going to stick close to more conservative treasuries and leave about 40% of my investments in tried and trued stocks that should come back after the pandemic (can’t go wrong with things like Exxon, etc). This way, I can sleep at night.
Gold will skyrocket in dollar value if there is a pandemic
AussieOne, don’t forget that the sales of gold jewelry from those that have died will probably be outweighed by the Chinese emergency spending of their dollar reserves to provide for sick people, quarantined people, and for the fight against the pandemic bird flu. Factories in China may have to be closed in large numbers depriving hundreds of millions of people of an income. The Chinese government will have to dig deep into their dollar reserves and spend the money on the international market to get food and medicine increasing dollar inflation. America will no longer have China as a customer to U.S. government debt forcing the Federal Reserve to buy the debt and print more money to pay the bill increasing inflation.
If the Case Fatality Rate is ten per cent or over, all of the world’s paper currency will end up funny money. New currencies with new reordered values would be issued post-pandemic, (maybe even backed by gold reserves). We would probably have a flurry of inflation first, but later experience a crushing deflation. I think everybody is getting way too confident about a quick bounceback even with a CFR of around three to five per cent like in 1918. There are many speculative excesses out there in the United States, China, etc. What about all of the excess industrial capacity that would be hanging over the world economy? What about all of the home values that would have plummeted around the world? What about all of the small businesses that will have gone belly up? There would be fewer consumers due to death, disability, or just plain being out of work. What country’s consumers are going to be the first up to bat to jumpstart the world economy? And there are certainly not enough government-sponsored infrastructure projects to jumpstart the world economy. (Japan tried that with no effect for many years).
And then there is the matter of consumer confidence for even the few that are working, getting a paycheck. I have a hunch that thrift and pinching pennies may have supplanted wildly immoderate spending.
Where is the “engine for growth” once the music stops?????
That has always been the greatest fear of the world’s financiers---a severe, synchronized worldwide deflation.
…Just been looking through some of these older threads and stopped on this one because it’s similar to another one that I’ve been following-And Medical Maven’s comments above(which I tend to strongly agree with),prompted a funny realization -That some of the posters here and in the other threads think things may get so bad that they are on the one hand trading recipes on how to eat tree bark and use smoke signals for communication, while on the other hand talking as though they expect that once the BF is past, life will just pick up where we left it when we crawled into our foxholes.
What a disconnect!
Pipes - There is no disconnect. Many of us are planning for POTENTIAL issues. While I don’t think that nothing will happen, neither do I think that we will end up in Thunderdome. However, prudence dictates that we prepare for multiple potential outcomes, some of which may involve the preparation of tree bark while sending smoke signals, others of which may involve dealing with very short supplies for sporadic periods, and others may involve just a pandemic “panic” which involves more behavioral issues than disease issues. It is this kind of panic which, I believe, WILL drive the stock market, even if all H5N1 virons suddenyl dispappear in a puff of blue smoke.
Right- and with Alert level 4 comes trade and travel limitations-by the time it gets to 6 every body is in international lockdown for what,6 mos. to a year or more,right? That’s one “potential” that we’re talking about?
…There once (and still is) a company called Global Crossing- They did a whole lot of things right.They built an international infrastructure relating to their chosen business. They had real assets and a viable plan.They sold stocks, which at times made great gains in value. They ran into trouble.Their stock fell…and fell. Ultimately, they just wiped the books clean relating to the stock that was in circulation one day and re-issued new stock the next for much higher prices…
Granted,this is an overly simplified telling of their story, but the lesson should be clear. You can invest in companies and in the best of times,they can survive and even ultimately thrive, and they can still wipe you out in the process.
I have NO DOUBT the stock market will survive BF- But in the case of the “potential” we speak of (or anything even scratching the surface of it), I have no doubt that a vast majority of Middle America will be wiped out financially if they jump into their foxholes still in the stock market. And waiting until level 6 hits will only make the impact worse.
Pipes - Just remember that there is no “The Market”. Just a market of individual stocks. There will always be companies which tank, and others which prosper. If you bought Global Crossing at the right time and sold at the right time, you would be wealthy. Get the timing wrong and you’re wiped out. That’s the basic story of the market.
Eccles-You make my point for me…If you are preparing for a potential as bad as described, the “right time” to sell positions when dealing with such potentially devastating effects on the horizon and move to safer “real” assets would be now-while the getting is good.
…”There will always be companies which tank, and others which prosper.”-In a global pandemic situation, it stands to reason that many more companies will “tank” as opposed to prospering. Average Americans today(which are more heavily invested in the stock market than any past generation) are denying reality if they believe on the one hand the “potential” BF situation, yet on the other hand believe they can go into that situation invested as they are and coming out entact.
“If” the bird flu goes efficiently H2H, why on earth do we keep on assumming that it is all going to be over in 12–18 months? That seems to be the universal assumption. But if this virus is pandemic in birds- and is moving into new species- cats, dogs etc- and since its been around killing birds efficiently for say 10 years- why would it just disappear after 18 months and let us crawl out of our foxholes? Funny how what seemed really horrible a few months ago to me- now seems like it would be a good outcome.
It’s not going to go away-only our ability to deal with it will improve through vaccines and natural anti-bodies.
A little history repeating:
We don’t know much about the talented H5N1 virus and are making some guesses about it based on what happened in 1918–19 which might be wrong. Some of the speculation, based on history, is that a global pandemic might run in three or so waves and be over in about 18 months. That’s what happened in 1918–19. Pipes is asking good questions: what if that model is wrong? That’s a reasonable question.
If that model is wrong we are definitely screwed….
Sounds like a lot of hand wringing for the unpredictable. I still think the major problems will come in the subsequent waves after #1, when immune sruvivors are clamoring for consumables and services that are not available while having to care for the second and successive waves of illness every few months
Check out : http://www.birdfluinvestmentstrategy.com/
Lots of good suggestions
Also check out http://www.FluTrackers.com They have a section called “Avian Flu - Business and the Economy”. They have active threads on stock market, gold, planning, jobs, debates on various stocks and other financial issues. Also, as each country gets avian flu, they are posting the country and the economic effects on that country. They have experts, who are posting, who answer questions. It also appears that this site does not accept ads.
ANALYSIS-Bird flu is step into unknown for investors
Interesting article: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L20740180.htm
Investment “Dead Cert” - Dignity PLC
http://www.birdfluinvestmentstrategy.com/
“We estimate at very least a 15 fold increase in earnings over the pandemic period.”
Looks like SPAM to me. Lots of ADS. Headline reads “World Health Organisation”. Illiterate also. (Its “World Health Organization” for those who can’t spell)
Older thread, closing for speed purposes.
check dates