From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Australia and New Zealand 16

24 May 2006

Nikolai---Sydney – at 07:38

NPB — 04:52

As I have had to learn, finally, after hundreds of goofs, we have to read the words that are actually printed on the page and, secondly, read all of them. Finally, think about it!

“A scientist from the World Health Organisation (WHO) says Australia is better placed than most countries in the Asia Pacific region for dealing with bird flu.”

‘Australia is better placed THAN…’ Than? PNG? Burma? V-Nam?Indonesia? Phillipines? China? Etc. Indeed, who are we making a comparison to? Most are miserably prepared. New Zealand. Japan? exceptions .

Look at the above post at 01:25, on Tamiflu stockpiles. We have only 10 pills each person for about 18% of us. That means 82% of Australians, or roughly 16 MILLION of us would not even have a lick of an empty foil-tab package.

And one pack of ten tablets is not even enough for any real period of prophylaxis, nothing to do with a CURE needing more.

I get cold, cold comfort indeed from that statement about our preparedness. The moreso in that I have not one pill, let alone a pack of ten.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 07:46

BUMPED TO BE ABOVE NUMBER FIFTEEN.

Not Paranoid But – at 07:53

Recent article regarding Australia NOT being well prepared for BF link

BroncoBillat 12:19

Bump

BroncoBillat 13:49

Bump. Again.

Woodstock – at 16:31

why are we bumping?

Nikolai---Sydney – at 17:38

I doubt I am alone in my concern at the slowness of the forum and the numbers of threads Dem has had to close to keep it up. Long term plans to fortify this site are under consideration, so if nothing pandemic happens soon, they may be put in place.

Nevertheless, if we are already imperiled by the relatively trifling numbers of hits, I can only wonder what will happen during times of high crisis, when tens of thousands attempt to access these crucial pages!

And not just us, here, but all and each of the other sites on pandemic news and guidance! A million enquiries on Google in a single day would lead how many to attempt to enter here?

Comments? Suggestions?

Woodstock – at 18:00

i dont think there is a way of being bulletproof here in the event of a pandemic. I was working in IT during 9/11 and the networks all got hammered. Media networks that have huge capacity faltered. It will just be another side effect of pandemic i think. The best we can do is support the folks here that do such a good job, and make alternative ways of connecting in the event that the wiki fails.

Melanie – at 18:06

A lot of slowness has to do with the fact that the forum is a flat file. We are in the process of having a custom solution written to convert it to My SQL/php data base. That will take care of the problem.

Woodstock – at 18:13

Melanie: My husband has offered to help if we need it. He’s a big wheel in PHP circles. Wont mention the name for obvious reasons

25 May 2006

AnnieBat 00:15

Hi from across the ditch.

Yes, preparation of countries is relative and, as some of the old disprin adverts said, we can now react 2 and a quarter times faster!

I think the main message both Aus and NZ have given to people (who care to listen) is that you must make your own preparations, you cannot rely on the state - the infrastructure is just not there to cope. Sadly it is just a minority who are getting the message - although I must admit the message has been received quite widely here in NZ. Unfortunately, getting the message and doing something about it are two different things!

And if the Wiki fails?? Could we look to like an MSN chat session elsewhere online? Only once the going gets really rough though. I will need fellow-mindset friends to say hi to at that time.

Piesy001 – at 00:20

Hello

I am having troubles finding masks at retail outlets. I am sure this has been discussed here before, sorry. Any idea’s, I am east coast.

Prepper Australis – at 00:24

Hi Piesy. Although I’m not on the east coast (in SA), I too had difficulty finding masks and the only place I could find masks was at a surgical and medical supplier, where I purchased 60 N95 masks.

Woodstock – at 00:26

i get N95′s from the local Amcal in Leichhardt NSW

Piesy001 – at 00:27

Thanks Guys. Will keep on it.

Piesy001 – at 00:45

Hi

Thought I would re-check my local Amcal - They are there 3 boxes (of 36 masks) of standard N95 masks. BUT they are individually marked as ‘Avian Flu Masks - n95′. And priced at $4.95 each. Is this the prices others are getting them for? - my local chemist has a habit of high mark ups.

Woodstock – at 00:46

i get them for $4.50each (ouch!) at amcal and a place in glebe for $4.00. i think its price gouging but what can u do? I just pick up a couple more every week

Piesy001 – at 00:51

I found it interesting that they had been marked ‘Avian Flu Masks - N95′. Were yours the same?

AussieOneat 00:52

Piesy001 – at 00:20

Try these guys online, I have found them to be very reliable and much cheaper than what has been quoted above.

http://www.bulkarasolutions.com.au/

Piesy001 – at 01:02

Can you suggest wich one to get, my knowledge on masks is somewhat limited. Thanks.

AussieOneat 01:13

The one with the valve is what I purchase as it has greater durability. Once a mask gets moist it should be replaced and the valve slows that process down, it is alot more comfortable to wear.

Piesy001 – at 01:20

Thank you. I will take your advice.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 03:49

If we thought ‘guessing the number of jellybeans in the big bottle’ was tough, take a look at the new thread on ‘Chances Of A Pandemic’ for challenge!

Surely very serious, but maybe wise to not be tooo serious!!

Woodstock – at 03:56

yes i saw that one. Is a bit like the jelly bean jar! I see that tonight that finally there was something on the tv about the indonesian cluster.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 13:10

The more I read, the more I realise: How lucky we are to be in poor little Australia and New Zealand. We don’t have a dozen aircraft carriers (or even one) nor over a hundred and some nuclear reactors, (but only one research type) but you can’t measure happiness just in numbers of nukes, I suspect.

< Then there was that fox who said ‘sour grapes’ too >

Nikolai---Sydney – at 13:45

Woodstock:

I’m going up to The Entrance for a few days. I know you will keep this thread alive and prosperous! Thanks from all of us.

AnnieBat 18:00

Hi team

Looking at the N95 mask pricces - that is about the same retail price we have here in $NZ. You may want to check online for suppliers of medical/workplace/emergency equipment.

In fact, I just looked online for you and found this site with what seems a good price http://tinyurl.com/jadyb

I hope I am not breaking any rules by puttng that there - I don’t know the company from Adam. So to be fair, here is another one http://tinyurl.com/kmhgb

Although the news in Indonesia is disturbing, I am finding the Iran “yes we do/no we don’t” very disturbing. Since the story is ‘out there’, why don’t the officials release samples to external agencies to prove their point of view - negative?

Also, just a housekeeping thought, each time we (someone) starts a new Aust-NZ thread, could we please have a summary of outstanding topics from the previous thread included in the top?

Have a lovely lovely Friday

Woodstock – at 18:50

AnnieB: I will try and figure out how to do the summary. But if i dont make it for the next thread please dont think you were ignored: i might not be able to figure it out in time!

26 May 2006

MaMaat 02:06

bump

Woodstock – at 03:27

Here i am holding the fort. Any one else home from work yet?

AussieOneat 04:32

Nikolai---Sydney – at 13:10

I wouldnt call the 11th largest economic entity in the world poor, maybe we are just smarter.

Woodstock – at 18:24

bump

Woodstock – at 20:32

Just curious…seeing as Australia is such a melting pot. Wondering how many ethnic groups are represented here on the wiki. Nikolai as we know is Russian. I have Italian heritage. Anyone else want to jump in? Curious as a lot of ethnic groups mix amongst themselves. Wonder what the impact of that would be if TSHTF

Melanie – at 20:35

Heinz 57 varieties of white Northern European.

Woodstock – at 21:10

Melanie: LOL! I just identify as Italian but i’m much the same. 1 set of granparents were Italian but the other side has an irishman and a cherokee indian as greatgrandparents! My father would die if he knew i just admitted that…he’s such a racist!!

27 May 2006

Aziraphale – at 01:57

I’m 6th generation Australian (!), but before that one side of the family is Irish and the other side is French.

I spent this morning reorganising the bug out bags. I got a spare key for my ute cut last night, what I need now though is a spare immobiliser… It’s one of the really old fashioned ones that you “plug” into a spot near the dash. Does anyone know if you can get extras of these made? Want to have a spare set of keys in my main bag…

Woodstock – at 02:25

i spent the morning moving in shelves in the little room i call a pantry. Couldnt close the door before and realised if my front door was open, the whole world could see my stocks. Not that that door is ever open much but … Anyways, now its a little more private :)

Woodstock – at 19:47

bump

28 May 2006

Aziraphale – at 01:58

just bumping to get it on top of alot of closed threads

BroncoBillat 15:27

Bump

Woodstock – at 18:30

bump again

Piesy001 – at 19:17

I believe we are scottish/german poms…. what a mix.

Woodstock – at 19:21

scottish/german? wow!!

Piesy001 – at 19:43

You should try living with me…

;)

Woodstock – at 19:46

so you’d be tightfisted but very militant about it? ;) Try my lot: italian/american indian. I want to shout quietly all the time ;)

Piesy001 – at 20:07

lol

Prepping Gal – at 20:39

Sending a wave from Canada (western). What don’t I know about the concerns in Australia & New Zealand over the bird flu? I was surprised to see the price of your masks. I got N95 masks from a medical supply house (small family run) $20 for 20 masks. The big medical s.h. were charging $50. for same. For me in Western Canada I’m concerned about having the right preps on hand and sufficient amounts so we can shelter in place, have alternative fuels for heating and cooking, water supply, and not having to deal with any medical problems during our SIP and security should public unrest occur. I’m concerned about the large city only a few miles away (I live in the country) that could spill into our area if things got tough. What about you?

AnnieBat 20:50

Waving back to Canada - I still need to do my train trip through the Rockies ….

In NZ, a lot of people already talk about “going bush” - taking to the hills and/or their beach or isolated holiday homes. At the other extreme we have people talking of gathering with their families at their local marae, which would mean hundreds of people living together in a confined space. It is a wonderfully caring environment.

As for me? I intend to hunker down at home, which is in a city but will take opportunities offered of more isolated accommodations. I do not fear for my personal safety where I live and I do not have a feel for whether the situation would change dramatically.

29 May 2006

anonymous – at 00:20

Hi! The friend I am staying at is jealous of her computer and very, very cold to “Bird Flu s**t” so I have to hit and run, and that infrequently. Last night I sneaked in and went onto ‘Chance For A Pandemic 2′ for ten minutes in hopes of giving a simplified example to use in convincing others. Not major, but to share with my friends here:

“I am away from home and have use of a friend’s computer only briefly, but I am amused at Guenter’s behaviour and a trifle annoyed.

Anyway, as to the thread. Look at it this way: the problem posed CAN, as unlikely as this will first sound, be reduced to the analogy of black and white balls drawn blind from a large container Universe! Let us say there are a very large number of balls, and that NOT ALL are white.

Now to bring this into real-world focus and H5N1 emergence, let production of a black ball draw represent an emergent pandemic, of whatever magnitude of qualities: transmissibility, lethality, etc.

In the world of virus emergence, EACH infected fowl, each infected mammal or person, is a sub-set of this Universal set of black and white balls. From the evidence of the past ten years, it appears statistically likely there are far, far more white balls than black in this game.

Where reality diverges most markedly from the usual highschool probability illustration, is that the speed and frequency of the draws is very, very high indeed, as befits the life span and reproduction speed of this virus.

That means, if not ALL balls are white, the Probability of pandemic outbreak, at whatever level of potency, is not merely near certain, but even frequent if the number of black balls is even a very, very modest proportion.

It follows, being brief, that we can confidently expect not merely “a” but “many, many” pandemic outbreaks, most of which are apt to not have access to adequate fuel to ignite a general conflagration … but from a large population of attempts, some realistically will.

As has been agreed elsewhere, an outbreak in Indonesia in NO WAY precludes other, independent, emergences in Nigeria or in China. Outbreaks in 2006 should not extinguish expectations for other cases or strains in 2007 … 2008 …

Sorry at the haste, and have to run, but hopefully others (NOT everyone!) can consider this idea sympathetically, for it is merely extemporaneous.”

Miss you all! Counting the days!

Nikolai

Woodstock – at 02:25

Nikolai my old mate! Miss you too and hope to see you back here again soon!

Woodstock – at 18:31

bumping and going to 17…

03 June 2006

Closed - BroncoBillat 01:21

The longest running series of threads on the entire FluWiki Forum, Australia and New Zealand 17 can be found here.

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