Forum: If You Are Planning to Relocate to a Safer Place When is it Time to Go

If you are planning to relocate to a safe refuge during the pandemic, how will you know when its time to leave? What will be the determining signal? Will you leave before it arrives in the U.S. (if you live in the U.S.) or will you wait until there are cases here (and how many) ? If you decide on seeking refuge when cases turn up here, will you leave at the first reports or will you wait until it arrives in your community? When is it too late? Anyone have any ideas?

When it gets to your area, it is too late. Hiding too early is an indication of readyness. Try to look panicy, so people think you just wigged out, rather than planned it.

I think getting well educated on the risks, learning what resources in you area that you may have get substitutes for ie power, water, how many essentials do you want to have available in storage ie one week’s worth of food and water? one day’s worth? Most people will not be able to run away from a pandemic, and I think there are risks associated with doing that anyway. From this site, I get the feeling most people are preparing to stay put during a flu pandemic.

It really depends on where you are now and what the mortality rate turns out to be. If you live in a city with over 1 million people and the mortality rate looks like its going to be over 5%, I would consider bugging out before it hits the US. Especially true if you live on either coast. The time to start scouting possible alternative living sites is now, IMO. Best thing would be to plan to go somewhere you feel comfortable, family and friends live there etc. If you live in the middle of the country in a small city or town, you may not want to leave even if the mortality rate is quite high. I don’t think the best place to be during pandemic is off in the woods by yourself. Community is a survival advantage. But you need to pick your community wisely. I hope I’m wrong about the megacities, but I don’t see how they will provide essential services if mortality rate is over 5%. I’d love to here what Mayor Bloomberg’s plan for NYC is under those circumstances.

I don’t think that the outlying communities can deal with a significant part of a large city ie NYC, Philadelphia packing up and moving in…I live 30 miles outside of Philly, and the more rural areas have far fewer services including health care…I think if the cities can get supplies in, they may manage better than we give them credit for, provided there is no panic.

Grace RN: 30 miles from a major city is not far enough, IMO. More like 200 miles. Most people will wait too long and the roads will be closed. There was a table top exercise last year for a bioterrorist event. I think they were using smallpox as an example, but I’m not sure. In any case, one of the first thing the governors did was close their borders. After Katrina, tourists and others trying to flee NOLA were shot at by sheriffs who would not let them into a neighboring city (didn’t want to be overrun with people they couldn’t care for). This is why if you’re going to go, you gotta go before the pandemic hits the US.

“if the cities can get supplies in…”

“If” is the operative word. Food processing and tranportation involves many people who will be sick, dead or scared in a bad pandemic. What’s the plan for getting food into NYC during a severe pandemic? Count on FEMA?

It will last for about three years, starting in April. The news won’t broadcast it, until it’s too late (reasons being national security). If you need any surgery, get it done now, otherwise finding any doctor will be hard later.

If we have any spare income from buying food and supplies, we will likely hit the lumber yard and spend 3 mo with hand tools finishing our remodel project. Beats cabin fever.

the news won’t broadcast it ? But we have radio,internet. Some source will have it. It won’t probably last 3 years. And then, there are waves, with almost no victims in the pauses. And for the later waves we might have vaccines

when the news broadcasts it in a form that everyone understands, it will be too late. So the key is learn all the nuances now so that you know what kind of news you are looking for. eg what kind of information coming out of jakarta or china would be a red flag, or how many red flags do you need. Or maybe pick several top experts like Nabarro or Osterholm or politicians like Bill Frist and keep tracking their utterances?

I wouldn’t count on vaccines if I were you. There are too many variables: there will definitely be distribution and production problems, the vaccine might not work and you might not hear about it till it’s too late, there may be unacceptable side effects etc see recent post on H5N1 and vaccine A.

If we get a safe vaccine that works and can be distributed in a timely manner to everyone, we would have hit the jackpot.

people here at fluwikie would tell me, when it’s time to relocate/panic/charantine, wouldn’t you ?

Maybe by then you would have learnt enough to be able to tell others? :-)

Has anyone here come up with a decision-making scheme . . . for example, “when X many people have died in the U.S. (or wherever you live) I will head for my refuge” or “as soon as the media reports it is a pandemic, regardless of what country its in, I will leave for my refuge” A friend and I are making plans to leave NJ but we can’t decide what news would be the signal that its time to go.

Unless you live in the middle of a large metropolitian city I am not sure what the advantages are in leaving. Of course if you own a second property in the country somewhere and would want to go there that would be great. But if you live on a limited income as most folks do, then would it not make better sense to just stay in your own home and prepare there. If you have to travel far you may run into problems with fuel, or all the other things people have mentioned. I live in a small town in mid America, and I guess I feel like here is as safe as anywhere. If you hole yourself up too far out in the boonies and you need help, your chances of getting it are much slimmer. I think the best thing you can do if you can manage it would be to find several other families and prepare together. Different people are good at different things, so if you had one person who was a nurse,and one who is an electrician, and one is an avid outdoors person/ camper, hiker, one who is a great cook then you have a well rounded group of people to take care of many different aspects. Maybe one person would be good with teaching the kids in the group, and one person likes to clean. Anyway, I know that is difficult, but if you band together in need things will be easier….you know the saying “two heads are better than one”…….

If people leave the cities willy-nilly, I think they’re in for a worse time than if they had stayed in place, but prepared adequately. They won’t know the area, the resources, and the locals are NOT going to be happy about having to deal with extra, nonresident (nontax-paying) people needing help. For my township, 30 miles outside Philly, I plan to bring up to them the need to plan for 25% more residents- Uncle Henry and the kids showing up on everyone’s doorsteps type of thing, with less resources and man-power. I just think it will happen that way so best to plan for it. I’m not going anywhere; our families are here, my in-laws are elderly and in poor health. I am a nurse and anticipate returning to hands on care in a local hospital. We are preparing where we are- how many people can afford to move or have a second home?

GraceRN, sounds like you and I were thinking along the same lines at the same time.I just don’t think it makes alot of sense to head off…staying in your own home makes much more sense.

Well, there’s 2 of us, anyway!

My original post was meant for people who are currently making plans to leave and who already have a place secured. Not those who would be fleeing, unprepared, after it was already too late. If I had a family or support system, I’d want to stay with them, too. I live alone and am planning to go to the suburban home of a friend, who also lives alone. Its his second home, we both live in very densely populated cities in the northeast. It seems safe to say that no one in the media is going to come out and say “okay, its a pandemic!” so we were wondering if anyone here has thought about what exactly would be the signal to implement your pandemic plans.

In your situation, as long as you and your friend are fine with the plan, and make arrangements for food, water, etc, then there is nothing wrong at all, as I see it. In the US, I do think there is the possibility of people in large cities panicking and leaving the area without thinking though all the possible consequences of such a move, especially those who find themselves unprepared and without any available resources, ie local groups, church, synagogue, mosque supports etc….

I agree with GraceRN, just make sure you make your move while you have time, fuel and safe conditions. It won’t do any good to prepare for an extended time in the new location and then catch the bug while you are traveling there. I don’t know your personal circumstances, maybe you are financially secure enough to take off early. That would be great. I am hoping to work up to the last minute, as I have 3 kids, a husband and several pets to prepare for. Each individual will have different circumstances to prepare for.I agree I think there will be alot of “last minute” panic, and people just throwing things in the car and heading for places unknown. And I don’t know of anyone(unless you own your own semi truck) that could pack everything you might need for months in your car or van. Thats why this site is so great, because everyone can throw out ideas to others.I think when the news hits that the first cases are in the US we will have a better idea of how long we have to make “final preparations”.

Peej, I know what I will be looking for is the first sign of the flu in my particular area where I work with a large surrounding populace. I work at a public school so the possibility of contracting is high. I live some distance away in a smaller town where I will quarantine myself and my wife. She is a teacher at a catholic school and the local archdioces has stated they will close the school with the first case at the school. I would prefer to be one step ahead of that and will probably take a very close look when the first case hits the county.

Alcyone, thanks for your input. You made me realize that most people won’t have a choice when it comes to implementing their pandemic plans because they will have to work until their employers close down. Only the most prepared will have financial resources or alternative employment plans that will enable them to leave their jobs when the pandemic hits.

We are staying in our home. It is an important decision for us to decide when to pull the kids out of school. We risk them flunking a grade, wasting hard earned tuition money and being prosecuted by the state for failing to educate our children. It is equally important to decide when to quit working and risk losing job, health insurance and all benefits when I have an expensive illness. If we do stay home, it puts our close co-workers, who we care about, in harm’s way of the virus while we hide. I have not decided on a “red flag.” I will just continue to watch how deadly and infective this virus is to make a decision and hope for the best. We hope our “experts” on the wiki will help us with their thoughts on the matter.

Great discussion about timing. My personal plan is when I read on my Google Alert info about confirmed human to human transmission anywhere in the world, I will quickly make my last minute purchases and plans. (I have already stockpiled food and provisions and made power etc. arrangements and plans for family to come to stay with us) I will contact the people who are planning to come and give them last instructions. When I first hear that there is a case in my state (Washington, which should be one of the first places hit because of its close contacts with Asia) we will go into action. Family will come and we will shut off all our outside contacts. The extended family will try to financially help those who are worried about their jobs. We will stay in this mode until we feel all the “waves” have passed. If we have made a mistake and it is all a false alarm we will just call it a vacation—or a drill and go back home. Otherwise we will be in lockdown. I do not want my children or grandchildren risked while we all diddle around making a decision. Right now I am working to get my whole family on board with this plan so we are not debating at the last minute.

Hi there, We do actually have a rough plan for taking off if/when a pandemic does hit the USA. I plan to make my trip north as soon as i get the feeling from the topics on these boards, the stuff on the news, and that chatter at work that something is happening. Most likely this will be shortly after i learn that the virus is H2H and is on the east cost of the USA. I don’t want to leave work prematurely and lose my job- not to mention my fiance losing his job and dropping grad school if it isn’t for real so i feel like my timing needs to be right. If the death rate is very low i might concider not leaving our apartment at all and just trying to brave it out.

However i plan to grab up my fiance, my sister who lives in the apartment across the way and her boyfriend and kitty and pack up our cars/trucks with as much water and food as we have and making it about 1 1/2 hours drive north to my mother’s home which is in a small town. The only reason i would do this is because not living an an apartment building with so many people would severly limit our chances of getting the virus. My mother rarely leaves the home as she is on disability and does not work so is is unlikely she could have picked up the virus from the populus. My mother has a washer/dryer, and tons of space for living. So long as power was on we could live for quite some time without having to leave. Also there are stores in walking disance (i doubt there will be gas for cars) unlike here at the apartment. The crime right is MUCH lower in here area and i feel it will be a lot safer. Plus there is the family comfort factor.

IF i should find that i am late in the game and the roads are blocked i am prepared to alert my mother and my fiance’s parents so that they can start filling tubs etc with water and stocking up with food. Oh and just as importantly alert my little sister to get her butt out of the dorm rooms and back to my mother’s house before she gets stuck there. I can’t imagine a drom room would be the best place for her to be in a pandemic.

So my game plan consist mostly of just paying really close attention to the media and the news online and doing what feels like the smartest thing to do at the time- i’m just glad we do have options, although i wish my mum lived closer!

But the second i hear about confirmed solid H2H cases anywhere in the world i totally plan to spend every last cent i have on food and water prep and start taking this a lot more seriously.

Missue, I understand why you would go to your Moms, but I think you should be stocking up on things now, not after you hear of confirmed cases…..what if everyone else in your city does the same thing….if everyone rushes to the stores there will be nothing left. I think everyone on this site would tell you the same thing. The time to prepare is NOW, while you can do it a little at a time, and do it with thought and care. Maybe you could stock up now and take things to your moms place to store them and then you would be ready to go when the time came. You are here, so I take it you are concerned and view this as a credible threat….so now is the time to take things seriously.

Hi Animal Lover, I am stocking up on what I can for now but i have a small apartment and i can only store so much food and water. Not enough for more then 2–3 weeks. I don’t think my mother/sisters will take me seriously if i tell them to stock up and i don’t have much money to use on food and water. But perhaps you are right in that i should bring food and water to their homes if i can right now and stop waiting.

I think it would help if you could stock up and make trips to your moms house. I understand how they might not take you seriously, but if they see you are serious and you can provide them with the information you have they might begin to prepare as well. I do understand you not having alot of money to spend all at once. I just buy a few extra things each time I go to the store. It adds up quickly and each time you come home with these things you will feel like you have accomlpished something. You can always fill cardboard boxes with canned items that you can just stack in your bedroom until you can take them to your moms place. Save the things that need to be kept cold for later on. Like I said, a little at a time will add up. Hopefully you will have months to prepare….just keep at it like the rest of us.

I have already stockpiled lots of food, but I plan to take further action when WHO goes to Number 4 on their alert scale. I have a large home close to the woods and lake, so we probably would have what we need here. Also, we have a place about 400 miles away that is VERY isolated. We haven’t decided which place we will use yet. When level 4 is reached, I will make some financial arrangements and as soon as H2H is confirmed in my state, I plan to stop going to work. I work for a doctor’s office that is connected to a hospital, so my likelyhood of being exposed is very high. I’m counting on WHO to have accurate information.

Anonymous: thanks for sharing your plan. I have a question for you: alot of people here think we are already at level 4, so would that be enough reason for you to leave now? ( i believe level 4 describes the clusters in localized places)

No. Not now. I monitor things on a daily basis through Yahoo’s special avain flu site. As far as I can learn, there haven’t been any cases in the U.S. so I’m waiting, but I’m very watchful and I have plans that I think I can put into motion rather quickly.

Hi Callmecrazybut, my plan was similar to yours, but I started to worry that it might be too late by the time the pandemic arrives in my state or even community. At that time, the infection rates could be so high that buying last minute items could be very risky. Oh, and everyone else will know by then, so there might be widespread panic. Also, do you think we can trust our Google News Feeds to give us timely info? I don’t know the answer, I’m just wondering if you and others consider it an accurate source. (I have a Yahoo News Feed, but I still wonder how much I should rely on it—I don’t know if there have been any major discrepencies or ommissions).

check out the thread title What Time Does the Balloon Go Up. dubina comments on the plan at CUHK. If we can get each community involved and establish alert levels for local action/reaction, it could be helpful; otherwise it’s an individual timing situation. For me, as I live 1/2 way between Philadelphia and Atlantic City, when/if I see the disease in either of those areas, my alert moves up a notch. The hospital where I work in West Philly has a large number of West African immigrant families; West Africa (among other areas) is on the migratory pathway of birds that amy be carrying H5N1.

Anon: So your plan is to get confirmed Level 4 and then wait till it arrives in the U.S. in your state. Level 4 will be the signal to buy the things you still need and then you will be ready to get in the car or truck as soon as there are confirmed cases in your state. My friend thinks exactly the same as you do, that we will have a window of opportunity from the time it gets here to the time it reaches our community. I guess if we have all our supplies ready, then we wouldn’t be risking infection in our cars on the road. The only problem would be if there was a quarantine in your state when you try to leave.

there is a good chance for no pandemic or for a mild pandemic or that your region is not hit, even when WHO goes to stage 4 or 5. Your stockpiled food would become bad. Indeed, after what I’ve read, I think the chances that there is no severe pandemic within the expiration date of your stockpiled food is >70% maybe >90%, I’m not sure. If anyone thinks otherwise, I’d be glad, if he/she would tell us.

There is also an ethics aspect for some people. Think at the Tamiflu-discussion. Some people think it’s not ethical for individuals to buy Tamiflu, because it produces shortage in Tamiflu and potential sufferers have more difficulty to get it. The same applies to food.

Hi Grace, thanks, I’ll check that out now. It sounds like you’ll be in a really good position to assess the situation. I admire your motivation to get communities involved, you’re totally right, without community support, we have to rely on individual timing. I wish I believed that level of goodwill exists in the world. I’m afraid that in the end it will be every person for themselves. I have baggage . . . .

gs: A lot of people stockpile food that won’t go bad for years and then they also rotate it every few months—replace it with new, so the stock is always good.

peej-I think that level does exist, we just see/hear more often about those in whom it doesn’t exist. This site is a good example of the former. Good luck..

Callmecrazybut: what are doing that makes your family agree on your plan? (which I love). My oldest daughter will come and stay here, but the rest of them think I’m nuts. I have one grandchild, and he’s the light of my life. Making sure he’s OK is one of my prime motivators.

Oh, I’m sure it exists, I admire people who have such a spirit of goodwill toward others (hey, merry x-mas!) You’re a first-responder, so you clearly have had that value for a long time. If I believed there was that much goodwill, I’d probably be a first responder too. But I’m no misanthrope, I just want to get away from people who are sick. I’m the opposite of a nurse.

Well, they may be many other roles to be filled with this thing on the radar…

Thanks for the helpful comments. I plan to do almost all my purchasing (food, supplies, equipment, etc.) now. I am moving as quickly as I can on this and already have about $1,200 worth of stockpiled food which I consider like money in the bank. It is all stuff I will use and it will keep for quite a while. When word hits the internet sources I follow that the human to human disease is spreading elsewhere in the world I will hopefully not need to buy anything except perhaps some fresh stuff if there is not a run on the stores. Once general pandemic preparation buying starts I plan to stay clear of the stores. Convincing my family has been a process of talking privately to my daughters and their husbands. The idea is not that a serious pandemic is likely to “X” degree. This idea is that this is just the one area of our lives where we have not prepared—and we should prepare. If we do it the right way it is good preparation for lots of emergencies.

So far my kids think I am a little obsessed but they are going along with me. We are purchasing enough food to include the needs of the family that lives too far to bring any (and they can’t afford it—will pay us back later) The other family is stockpiling and storing it at our house. We have room for two families. If we have more family members that want to come they must come early, with a trailer as their bedroom and with their own food supplies for about 3 months.

My husband is an airline pilot, so we are basically screwed. He will be exposed by the time it hits the news. I have masks for him to wear if he gets the idea there is a problem. And he can go on his own oxygen in the cockpit. My concern is getting him home, rather than him being held in some quarantine somewhere else. On 9/11 they grounded planes all over the country and would not let anyone out. One person with the sniffles would cause mayhem with 125 pissed off passengers.

I do not sleep well at night unless he is here with me.

About food “expiration”, we bought items for Year 2000 in 1999. It was instant oatmeal, rice, dried beans and some canned goods. Most of it is now expired. I went through every thing today to decide how much food we have. The expired stuff looks fine. I decided to keep it. My family can eat it. I can give it to starving neighbors who beg for food with a warning about it’s age. I can use it to feed pets of the starving neighbors. From looking at my old food, I think it can last a lot longer than the expiration date, and perhaps longer than some websites indicate. The moral of the story is don’t let “expiration fear” stop your planning. Even if you forget to rotate, your stores aren’t necesarily wasted. (As an explanation about my repeated posts on hungry neighbors, my children have “on their own” given every kid in the neighborhood a tour of our supplies, so every one knows we have them - Oh well)

I think anyone who is planning to rely on news of cases in their local community to take action is leaving it way too late. Any plan is only as good as its weakest link, and this would be it. I like one-line affirmations or whatever you call it cos it helps people understand, so here’s my one-liner for pandemic preparedness:

ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN DO NOW, DO IT NOW.

Cos it is very likely that even the best prepared will find that they have missed certain things. And we don’t know what the exact scenario wjill involve when it happens, so chances are there will be plenty of unexpected crucial stuff to take care of that you just discovered. So do everything else now.

I disagree with anon22 here. What you prepare for now might proof wrong or useless when we know more. There is no imminent threat. When H5N1 starts going pandemic there are still some weeks at least for planning. Hmm, we should make a list for the timings, what must be done ASAP(Tamiflu?), what can be done when WHO goes to 4 or 5(water?), what’s even more harmful than useful to do now (guns?).

one-liner:

DON’T PANDEMIC YET.

but keep watching the news.

gs, “When H5N1 starts going pandemic there are still some weeks at least for planning”

Not if everyone thinks the same way.

GS, How much to prepare and how quickly is something we all struggle with. Its complicated . . . if you wait, you might wait too long. That’s what motivated my original post. Some people think its better to get prepared early rather than risk waiting too long. We’ve all heard the horror stories about traffic jams, empty grocery shelves, etc. Making a timeline and prioritizing is a really good idea, no matter what timeline you’re working with.

Anon, Are you saying that local reporting will be wrong or delayed in some way? I could be wrong, but when a local case is suspected, won’t federal experts like CDC or WHO have to travel to the location and confirm it? That could take days. That’s longer than I want to wait. The best alternative is to implement our pandemic plans before it reaches our communities.

Worried In The City: I don’t have the references, but I know I’ve seen several studies on the topic of food expiration and nutrient and safety concerns. If you go to the FDA website and search, I’m sure you’ll find some. My understanding is that most foods can be eaten far beyond their expiration dates but the nutrients will have broken down. Maybe your neighbors won’t knock on your door in a disaster because they know they’re gonna get that old Y2K food!

No, what I am saying is that the nature of a influenza pandemic is such that the number of cases grows extremely rapidly, such that resources are almost immediately overwhelmed. The classic word to describe this spread is ‘explosive’.

I pulled up some numbers from 1918.

Boston Commonwealth Pier, first 2 cases appeared August 27. No of new cases 8/28 = 8, 8/29 = 58, 8/30 = 81, 8/31 = 106.

The disease then spread across the river and arrived at Harvard 9/4. Camp Devens 30 miles west of Boston with 45,000 men reported first case 9/7. Next day there were a dozen cases. By 9/18, the camp had 6674 reported cases (mild ones not reported). 9/23 12,604 cases.

Daily hospital admissions in Camp Devens: 9/2 = 31 cases, 9/18 = 1,176 By then the camp had 8000 men in a hospital built for 2000. At the peak of the wave 90 men died in one day.

The disease spread across America and appeared in places as far as Louisiana by Sep 26, and in the last states by October 4th.

Philadelphia, 9/11 first case; 10/3 75,000 cases.

I think the media will report any breakouts in the US before any governmental body.

Something for those people who are planning to bug out when things get hot — do a test run. See how long it takes to load the car with your preps. See how much stuff really fits in. See how long it really takes to gather everything together (where did kitty go). Figure out where you will get gas quickly. And take a few runs on alternate routes so you know how long they will take if you need to change plans. Assume Murphy’s Law.

Last Thanksgiving we did a test run to our cottage taking a full van load of preps. It takes a lot of space. It also takes a lot of time to load. Got away later than we had hoped. Engine light came on. Stopped to check oil and manual. Stupid computer system. But lost another 1/2 hour. Construction backed things up too.

Finally got to the cottage in the dark where the original plan was to have lots of light to unload.

Moral of the story — three “p’s” — plan, prep and practice.

anon: when i read your post and then Grace’s, i imagined a scenario with the media reporting similar statistics to the ones you cited, and the extreme level of panic that would result when millions of people suddenly realize how deadly this thing really is. Its not that I haven’t been reading all the info out there, its just that the way it was presented by you made something click in my brain. I feel certain that if we aren’t ready to implement our individual plans by the time the first cases are reported here in the media (not wait for gov confirmation), then we’ll be caught in the mass hysteria. my original question is answered!! thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!

When Hurricaine Katrina hit, 2–3 days later all of our city’s gas stations ran out of gas. There were lines and fist fights in the few stations that had gas. My car was empty but I said “forget it” and skipped the gas stations. After the weekend gas became available. The moral of the story is that when we were watching the hurricaine in our southern US city none of us considered this a possiblity. You just don’t know what will be suddenly “unavailable”. Once it’s too late, there is nothing you can do.

George, excellent suggestion. I have my “bug-out” supplies and kitty carrier ready to go and an alternate route planned but you are so right about Murphy’s Law. Plus, I’ve never had to close up my house like this before and I live alone so that’ll be new, too. I was thinking I wouldn’t need my alternate route if I got out as soon as the media reports the first cases here. But, if it takes me too long to pack up I may have to rely on my alternate route and I haven’t tested it. Do you have a signal event planned to implement your bug-out as we’ve been discussing here, i.e. media reports cases here or before it gets here?

Hi Worried In the City,

I’ve heard some horror stories about those gas stations in the southeast—you were smart to skip it, think fast and not waste time or risk your life waiting for help that might never arrive.

This discussion has convinced me that by the time a pandemic arrives here, it will be too late to do any more preparing, maybe one last stop at a grocery store *on the way* for short-term perishables. With the mass panic, stampedes at the grocery stores, pharmacies, hardware stores, I think the window of time from when the pandemic arrives to when it reaches our states and communities will be hours not days.

This happened in the city where I live. It wasn’t reported to the press until after the tourist season almost ended.

RAPID CITY (AP) — State Health Department officials did the right thing when they decided against issuing a public alert after a small outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease in Rapid City, Gov. Mike Rounds said. Merrilyn Burchell, 55, of Rapid City, died July 1 of Legionella pneumonia, commonly known as Legionnaries’ disease. The first word the general public received that there had been seven cases of Legionnaires’ disease in Rapid City was in early August. Rounds said a public warning could not have saved Burchell. “We received our first case report on the day that this lady was hospitalized,” Rounds said. “There is no way that the Department of Health could have given any type of information or warning that would have brought her in any quicker, because we didn’t know about it (Legionnaires’) until the same day she decided to check herself in.” Rounds said the state could have known about the presence of Legionnaires earlier had Rapid City Regional Hospital not delayed, by more than a month, reporting the first case of the disease. The hospital detected a Legionnaires’ case in late May but did not report that case until July 6. The delay violated a state rule requiring Legionnaires’ cases to be reported within three days of detection. There is no penalty for violating the regulation and Round said he doubts it would be wise to impose one. “I wondered about that. Should there be a penalty on a reporting basis?” Rounds said. “But there is nobody out there who intentionally tries to mislead or misreport. This was an honest mistake. They know how it happened. They know how it can be corrected. And they’ve assured us they will do that.” Despite the oversight, hospital officials worked with the state to detect and treat cases said Rounds. Also, the state Health Department took appropriate measures to notify other health-care providers in Rapid City when Legionnaires’ was confirmed here, he said. “I’m comfortable in the way it was handled from the time it was reported to us,” Rounds said. “Now, we do wish we would have received the first report earlier. “Yes, it would have been nice to have the first report earlier.”

Peej 06:58 -

While it may not take days for the Feds (or anyone else) to confirm that H5N1 is running in your local area, by the time you hear about cases in your area, it is too late to be out and about safely. Remember that the disease is contagious in individuals walking around who have not yet become symptomatic.

Question: Answer quickly - How many of that large crowd in the supermarket or hardware store are already carrying H5N1 and passing it around?

Next question: How many virons did you inhale while pondering that question?

Cheers.

see anon22′s numbers from Boston 1918. Only a few people (10?) will be infected by the time you hear about the first cases in your town. By then you had had some weeks of high-alarm already. Then do the last preparations and isolate for 2 months. Unless you have an essential job - in that case follow the strict desinfection guides, avoid others without wearing protective cloths and masks, to be desinfected later.

this is just my idea, how it might be possible to come through a severe pandemics. Would it work ?

gs -

The 10 you hear about are the ones that were first infected and the earliest to go symptomatic. by the time you hear about the 10, perhaps hundreds are still walking around and spreading the virus. I still maintain, by the time you hear of 10 in your area, it has already become unsafe to be out and around unless you have an extreme need to do so.

if there are hundreds expected to be infected by the time you hear from the first infection - then it’s a chance of less than 1:1000 that you are one of those in a city like Boston. And you can still successfully isolate.

I think, people in 1918 just didn’t take this serious enough, else more would have succeeded to isolate/quarantine.

Some thoughts on the numbers from 1918:

1 these are retrospective numbers so we don’t know at what point in 1918 ordinary people actually became aware there was a epidemic

2 As Eccles said, by the time you HEAR ABOUT the first case, that person would probably have been symptomatic for at least 4–7 days if not more. If you add the incubation period, you have potentially 3–4 generations of infections, some symptomatic but not diagnosed, some diagnosed but no one’s counting yet, some counted but not reported, some reported but not in the media, some still in incubation period. So I agree with Eccles “by the time you hear about cases in your area, it is too late to be out and about safely.”

3 These are not just numbers. Each number represent a collection of related events and phenomena. eg by the time 90 people were dying in the camp in one day, which was only 2 weeks from the first case, (and a lot less time from when people HEARD ABOUT the first case) the whole city had bodies piling up in streets and in front of morgues. They ran out of coffins within days and then even improvised boxes were used up. I read a gut-wrenching story of parents going round the neighbourhood begging for used cereal boxes for their dead child but there weren’t any and they watched their child being taken away on the back of a horse-drawn cart with a whole tangle of other bodies.

A lot of things have to happen alongside these numbers.

I’m worried less about getting infected than having to cope with the mass panic that will result when cases are reported. Imagine trying to do anything in the midst of so many hysterical people in stores and on the roads. Regardless of the chances of infection, by the time any cases are reported in my area, I want to as far away from the scene as possible. I think its best to leave/implement plans when cases are reported in a nearby state.

Not Again, That’s a very disturbing article, thank you for posting it. A perfect example of what we can expect in terms of warning reports.

gs, you are either being deliberately obtuse or extremely naive. “then it’s a chance of less than 1:1000″ …..

Imagine living in Boston right now, and you are going on the subway to the groceries store, bank, and maybe pharmacy then coming home. You need to assume anyone within 1m in the open air and maybe up to 30m in enclosed spaces to be sharing viruses with each other. (For centrally heated or cooled buildings, then everyone in the building) How many people do you meet in that one subway ride or standing in line at the various shops? Remember that even if someone has only been in your presence for a few seconds they can still infect you. Plus others who have just left but their expired breath or excretions still linger which probably push up the number 2–3 times.

How many others have touched the door handles, elevator buttons, the money that you got from the cashier etc? You could easily be sharing biological space for a couple of thousand people any single day even in a small city.

More importantly, would you want to live like that, counting how many people might be infecting you constantly? Its a personal choice but I’d rather not.

Anon, Good point and very well said. The cereal box account is indeed heartbreaking. Its easy to forget that there is a context associated with these statistics. The numbers are horrifying by themselves but the context in which they occur is even more so. Anon, do you think acting on reports from a nearby state will be sufficient time?

peej, its a personal choice. My choice is the next time the WHO makes another official statement upgrading the pandemic alert level in whatever way shape or form.

To escape crowd panic, both physically and in terms of acquiring resources, you need to be at least 2 logical levels (in thought) above or 2 steps ahead of everyone else. In this globalized world, that means everyone else on the planet.

peej, “My choice is the next time the WHO makes another official statement” I need to add that I have family abroad that needs to come home if a pandemic is going to start.

Oh, okay. I understand.

anon22, 1:1000 was the chance of being infected when the first H5N1 report in your town appears. Check the numbers here: http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.DiseaseTransmissionPrimer

As for crowd panic on next WHO statement, look around : people are indifferent. I’ can’t imagine they would start running into shops etc. OK, some would, but as you said for each who would there are 999500 who won’t … hmm, not that many but anyway.

Some bulk suppliers are running over 1 month behind now. If one waits until even phase 4 is confirmed, the suppliers might become 5 times more swamped overnight. Don’t expect grocery stores to be able to meet the needs of even 5% of the people trying to stock up 3 months of provisions.

We are going to eat all of the food we purchased anyway, so getting it early means not being caught up in the mad rush.

“When it gets to your area, it is too late. “

As Bill once said, it depends on your definition of “it”.

Some things ought to be done months in advance of the first case in your country, in your state, community, what have you. New Zealand, last I checked, plans to close its schools as soon as the first case is reported there. Not much benefit (safety) in closing sooner.

Speaking of schools and surge-limited hospitals, closed schools and staff might have some utility if they could be pressed into service as local surge medical centers. Some talk of turning hotels and motels into surge facilities, but that might not work where there are no hotels or motels.

If this turns out to be a real trial, as many lives could be saved by common sense as by erring on the side of caution. Take Tamiflu, for example: if you had some, not a lot, would you take what you had if you developed symptoms when you lived 100 miles from an airport and the virus hadn’t been detected in your country? I wouldn’t. Common sense would tell me that I have a cold or something fluish, not The Big One.

So I’d have to side with gs a little here; there’s a whole spectrum of things that ought to have happened yesterday to things that can be put off a bit til the bug closes in.

Some things cited here might be quite unnecessary. I think most people assume at some point in a pandemic wave that they’ll have no water. That assumption naturally drives them to buy large storage tanks, to fill empty milk containers, arrange rain barrels and so on. On the other hand, how many so inclined have ever stepped foot in a municipal water plant? What problems would a municipal water plant operator have keeping his plant in operation? Water treatments routinely add chemicals, some of which probably kill the flu virus. If you had tap water, would you use it?

This question of water is one you might consider putting to your city council before you spend money, time and space on water storage. Don’t forget, the money you save on water might buy food, fuel medicine…who knows? Use what you learn here to be exceedingly efficient, not overcautious to a fault.

And, yes, I see some paranoia setting in. I did some calculations with David Nabarro’s estimate of pandemic fatalities (1.9 million in the USA … admittedly, one of any number of estimates that might be made) and I saw that the annual death rate from all causes might grow by about 80 percent based on the 2000 US census of 2403000 fatalities with a population of 281442426.

((2403000 + 1900000) / 281442426) - (2403000 / 281442426) = 79% increase over “normal”

But Americans are mostly unaware of normal mortality. We see it occasionally on TV news and much less often in personal experience, so that a pandemic wave with 2 to 4.5% mortality depending on attack rate would increase our mortality but not by much compared to the mass destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Furthermore, if you happen to be a senior or an infant with a sense of vital statistics, you might see little mortality difference in your cohort. On the other hand, before your fate is sealed, your personal drama will be in your struggle to avoid infection and illness…ultimately, to survive. That drama doesn’t appear in bottom line mortality estimates, but it rightly has our attention as individuals.

What’s the message? Don’t panic. Think it through. Things might not be as bad as you think they could be even if Nabarro’s numbers turn out to be right.

“I hope I’m wrong about the megacities, but I don’t see how they will provide essential services if mortality rate is over 5%.”

A high mortality rate could mean a low attack rate; it’s relative, and we can’t know it in advance. In any case, a megaplex government has got to think like the administrators of a Chinese university; a lot of people are caught in place with no means to go elsewhere, so something has to be done before the fact to make their essential services reliable. Might be hard, might be easy, but it’s pretty obvious either way.

“…if you’re going to go, you gotta go before the pandemic hits….”

Yes.

“And for the later waves, we might have vaccines.”

Yes, we hope.

It seems safe to say that no one in the media is going to come out and say “okay, its a pandemic!” so we were wondering if anyone here has thought about what exactly would be the signal to implement your pandemic plans.

No, I think that’s wrong. If there’s a pandemic, we’re going to hear about it, most of us with weeks and possibly even months to tune up our living and working arrangements. Nobody will keep the first outbreak quiet when it happens. Why should they? Oh yeah, the Builderbuns….

“In the US, I do think there is the possibility of people in large cities panicking and leaving the area without thinking though all the possible consequences of such a move, especially those who find themselves unprepared and without any available resources, ie local groups, church, synagogue, mosque supports etc….”

Yes, and the less done beforehand to safeguard large cities, the likely people who live there will panic and try to get away.

“She is a teacher at a catholic school and the local archdiocese has stated they will close the school with the first case at the school. I would prefer to be one step ahead of that and will probably take a very close look when the first case hits the county.”

New Zealand proposes to do that…close its schools when the first case is recorded in country…but it’s a small country. Common sense might dictate to some extent. If the first US case was recorded in LA, I wouldn’t expect schools in Minot, SD to close immediately. There should be some coherent public policy on school closings, however.

“…most people won’t have a choice when it comes to implementing their pandemic plans because they will have to work until their employers close down. Only the most prepared will have financial resources or alternative employment plans that will enable them to leave their jobs when the pandemic hits.”

Hmmm, let’s see. Cut work or die; I know what I’d do. It’s not that simple of course. Essential personnel should do their respective parts, non-essential people should hunker down and take care of each other. So far as money’s concerned, credit should be made available so people can weigh their options sensibly and get what they need to survive (within reason). If it’s a mild pandemic, decisions to work or cut work become more nuanced.

“Oh, and just as importantly alert my little sister to get her butt out of the dorm rooms and back to my mother’s house before she gets stuck there. I can’t imagine a drom room would be the best place for her to be in a pandemic.”

Probably not, but that’s what they’re planning to do at CUHK. By and large, no place to run in China, and that goes for lots of people elsewhere too. What people are planning to do has much to do with their circumstances, insights and motivations.

“But the second i hear about confirmed solid H2H cases anywhere in the world i totally plan to spend every last cent i have on food and water prep and start taking this a lot more seriously.”

There will be a solid signal; that’s almost a sure thing. What you should do when you get it will depend on what you’re already done and what the signal portends. In any case, a lot of minds will be changed and changed again.

“…perhaps you are right in that i should bring food and water to their homes if i can right now and stop waiting.”

Missue, before you procede to lay in a lot of water, ask somebody at your local water plant how reliable their operation might be, You probably have time to ask those kind of questions and get credible answers before blithely assuming the taps will be dry. Same is true of other utilities, especially electrics. So much easier with juice.

“I monitor things on a daily basis through Yahoo’s special avain flu site. As far as I can learn, there haven’t been any cases in the U.S…”

Most likely the signal will come from Asia (or Eurasia) of a pandemic outbreak, two to four weeks into the outbreak with as few as 10 or as many as 100 or more dead. That would be the onset of WHO Pandemic Phase 6 and there’s no way anybody could ignore it or keep it quiet. (Oh wait, the Bilderbums…)

“Also, do you think we can trust our Google News Feeds to give us timely info? I don’t know the answer, I’m just wondering if you and others consider it an accurate source.”

When the balloon goes up, it’ll be front page news all over the world in a matter of hours, panic or not. It may take a few days for the WHO to do their field tests and map the outbreak, but they expect “a strong signal”.

“My friend thinks…that we will have a window of opportunity from the time it gets here to the time it reaches our community.”

No doubt true. Some things need doing now, others, later. One thing we ought to be doing now is getting our social contracts in order.

“I plan to do almost all my purchasing (food, supplies, equipment, etc.) now. I am moving as quickly as I can on this and already have about $1,200 worth of stockpiled food which I consider like money in the bank. It is all stuff I will use and it will keep for quite a while.”

Another reason to get local government assurances about utilities is that money you don’t have to spend on water is money you might have to buy things that would soon be very costly…if you can find them. Car batteries, tires, light bulbs, masks, respirators, etc. Prices could go nuts if government doesn’t impose price controls. The values we assign to things could change dramatically.

“My husband is an airline pilot, so we are basically screwed. He will be exposed by the time it hits the news.”

I doubt that. Chances some guy slips out a quarantine zone and gets on your husband’s plane before the outbreak makes news are very small. You may have some difficulty deciding whether he should continue to fly after that little media burst.

“I think anyone who is planning to rely on news of cases in their local community to take action is leaving it way too late.”

Absolutely.

“…here’s my one-liner for pandemic preparedness:”

“ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN DO NOW, DO IT NOW.”

I’d say, ANYTHING THAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW, DO NOW.

…just to say in so many words, not everything we can do needs to be done, and not everything that needs to be done needs to be done now. Make your lists and sort them out.

“No, what I am saying is that the nature of a influenza pandemic is such that the number of cases grows extremely rapidly, such that resources are almost immediately overwhelmed. The classic word to describe this spread is ‘explosive’. “

The spread could be “explosive” when it reaches your community, but when it’s still not there, you have some time remaining to get things done.

If it isn’t here, where is it? Public health and police, DHS, you name it; we should get very current daily repost of new cases. (Check out the Roche FluTracker map; btw, somebody needs to publish maps on local scales, like the local TV temperature weather maps.

This knowing where it is and isn’t applies to the aftermath too; we’d like to hear an “all clear” when it’s clear so we can get on with rebuilding.

dubina, I agree with you in general sentiments. Being aware or ready is not the same thing as panicking. Just by having gone through the thought process gives you some ‘immunity’ against panic. In fact, I would suggest that often it is people who are not ready that panic the most because they have to analyze a complex situation and make decisions at the same time as the situation is unravelling.

However, just a caveat that generally if you are talking about something that almost no one has experienced personally, it is hard to accurately assess ahead of time what the scenario might be or what the result of collective activities might be. That in itself is worth a few points on your ‘playing safe’ scale.

Will,

“Some bulk suppliers are running over 1 month behind now.”

Is this because of Christmas or are people buying more groceries than usual? Running a month behind sounds like a lot for just-in-time supply chains. If people are stocking up on groceries, that could mean more people are worried than meet the eye. For example, I think the number of people who visit this site per day isn’t going to have much effect on bulk suppiers’ inventories.

Hey Will…?

Dubina-

I don’t know the cause, and can’t believe it has anything to do with avian flu prep, because anyone I apeak to about it looks at me like I have lobsters crawling out of my ears and says “Huh?”. But I have noticed that 1 Lb propane canisters and 5 gallon gas cans are as rare as hen’s testh around where I live. I’m not sure if it is as simple as folks needing to replace usage items now that winter is here, or it is a signal I need to heed.

That’s the problem with reading the signals. You may not know what was a signal until it is too late to act on it. of course, sometimes out of stock is just due to something being a little more popular this season.

Heard on the radio some people can only afford one night’s fuel at a time; is that why the propane cannisters are in short supply?

We have plenty here in Utah. There are cases of them on the shelves at Walmart.

One has to realize what the typical operating level of a supplier is. A retail bulk foods supplier might have a average level of sales for a given time of year, and expects surges in business. One such supplier, who also deals in emergency supplies, has fallen far behind their usual ‘ship in 2 days’ to now as much as 4 weeks due to heavy demand. Now remember, Katrina and Rita hit these suppliers hard, and they are trying to catch up. But this supplier was doing ok at the end of October, and has been getting many more orders than normal, to where they have had to expand all aspects of their operation, and have suffered growing pains as a result.

Is this a signal? Difficult to say, though awareness is up, especially in some circles, and that seems to be driving demand up. If this continues to slowly ramp up, we can forsee the continuing expansion of these emergency/bulk food suppliers, which is a positive. The more they can grow steadily, the better able they will be to support a large influx of customers when phases 4 and 5 hit.

WOW!!!!!

Just a few IMHO comments

The numbers and spreads for the 1918 flu virus will be a little off. The few vehicles and trains moving around then, can’t be compared to the millions of international air travellers per day - every day, of todays society. The virus will likely spread in completely random jumps all over the world.

The maps of spread mentioned above would be a little off too, at best they are yesterdays known outbreaks. At worst it jumped to your community 3 or 4 days ago, and it will only be on the map in another few days.

If you wait for unconfirmed reports of it in your country before stocking up, then it will most likely already be in any store or supermarket you visit. My better half works in ASDA and is overwhelmed at every bank holiday weekend now. Can you imagine if everyone decided to stock up up for 3 or 4 months, let alone do it within a couple of days or even a couple of weeks of each other.

One thing I will guarentee is that when people fail to show up for work at the power stations and the grid goes down, it won’t matter what your local water company does with its water, it can’t go anywhere without the electric pumps. Without water you’re dead quicker than a flu virus attack.

New 5 gallon drinking water barrels cost £5 from caravan suppliers and cost nothing to fill from the tap now (in the UK the water is treated, so needs no further treatment). Keep them off the concrete floor and cover the barrels with black bin liners. Also at the caravan place get some water treatment tablets for purifying water that you subsequently collect and get some coffee filters to filter it through first. - Low cost survival. Then just buy more of what you normally eat and save some each week.

Because of the loss of power - also check your heating/cooling, lighting and cooking capabilities without using mains utilities.

And finally - the flu virus is only one disaster that you’re preparing for, there is a multitude of others.

I do not live anywhere as large as Boston (yet many in town, and even farther out, drive an hour or more to Boston to work and then another hour back, every day. I bet it is the same any direction out from Boston.

I know the town I’m in has a good percentage of population whose relatives still live in India, China, and other countries, *and* some have gone back there, over this winter school break, to vist. They will probably arrive back right before school starts in January, and who knows if the local health personnel have given this any thought; to ask if anyone has just travelled, if they get calls from sick people next week. I don’t think local health facilities are ready for patients they should isolate, let alone a pandemic, this month, (and I’d like to know when they will be -they can’t do anything extra without extra money).

Can you remember when flights were grounded after September 11th, 2001?

How many people, where you lived, were caught out of the country on business trips, or on the other side of the country? People travel more than some seem to think.

If pandemic breaks out and is recognized overseas, we may have to assume a few plane flights also went out with infected people on them, and by the time those are sick (or even tracked down)it will be in many places and those people will have made it home and possibly out on their comunities before knowing how ill they were. If quarantines or travel restrictions are suddenly called, I expect people will be stuck places they don’t want to be, or with people depending on their return, just like happend after Sept. 11th.

I can’t expect we will get weeks or months or pandemic notification.

UKguy; agree with you, there are other disasters to consider. If planning is based more broadly ie 2 plans;1. you have 15 minutes to prep and leave your home and 2. you have stay in your home without services for XX amount of time, then most bases have been covered.

UKGUY,

You state to keep water containers off concrete floor. Why? I’ve never heard of this, is there a health concern?

Psy-chic, you said, “It will last for about three years, starting in April.” I’m wondering where you’re getting this information. As I understand it, no one can accurately predict when it will begin, or how long it will last. Estimates from the experts range from late winter/spring of 2006 to three years from now. Many say it will come in waves that will last 8–12 weeks each, and that the waves will span about 18 months. No one can say for sure.

Chemicals in concrete can taint water even through the plastic barrel. I keep mine on a wooden pallet.

crfullmoon,

“If pandemic breaks out and is recognized overseas, we may have to assume a few plane flights also went out with infected people on them”

I think it will be a lot more than a few flights. You just need to look at the number of flights a day for some aiports in Asia (Jakarta 400 Beijing 900 Hong Kong 750).

dubina, there’s a fairly high chance of things getting ‘explosive’ almost simultaneously in multiple major cities in the world. One week into that, there will panic worldwide and it will be very hard to tell whether/when your city is going to become one of the casualties.

but how many infected people can there be after a few days ? how many of your flights go to overseas ?

this:

 “ there’s a fairly high chance of things getting ‘explosive’ almost simultaneously in multiple major cities in the world.”

is it just your feeling or have you read it somewhere ? (where?)

Don’t they have plans to stop all flights immediately ? I keep people saying this won’t help, but also without reference. But even if it won’t help, isn’t it reasonble to assume that there will be no (unsurveilled) flights from/to contaminated areas ?

Just remember that flu has been going through human populations like a hot knife through butter for thousands of years. We are one of its favorite foods. It is travelling by bird right now and relentlessly moving around the world. If it goes H2H, it will be travelling by jet, car and motorbike to everywhere, pretty much simultaneously. The key will be how many days it is infective without causing symptoms? Just think about AIDS. It is spread by healthy, happy, young people. When a person looks like they have AIDS or any other horrible disease- they are not much threat to anybody. They look sick- they sound sick- they smell sick and they are too weak to do anything other than stay in bed.

The day the first case (if it goes H2H)is recognized in your town will be the signal that you, your kids. you friends, your family have already been exposed to the virus multiple times in the previous 5 or 6 days (just guessing about these numbers).

Also, if you have kids- talk to them alot about the flu. They tend to be very social. I can be scrupulously carefull myself- but if my kids are not- I am in the soup!! They will bring the flu right on in.

Someone on this Wiki put me onto the “great Influenza” by John Berry. It is about the 1918 flu. The only two things mentioned as being helpful were quarentine and good luck.

Also, I imagine that nobody is going to be motivated by money. If fact, nobody seems to have money now a days. It is all credit cards, debit cards. I think, do your prep now or as soon as you can, and assume that one day you might wake up and the world has completely changed.

Let’s say the current outbreak in Jakarta suddenly gets more serious, with reports of chains of h2h or clusters of larger size than the current 3–5. The local people who are already familiar with and jittery about the current situation is likely to panic; a fair number will realize that this maybe the start of an epidemic and they are much more likely to catch the virus than currently. With a population of 17 million, the stampede to get out will be horrendous. (A lot if not most of the flights from these places are international.)

The current average number of days from onset of symptom to confirmation of diagnosis is 20. With efficient h2h, by the time people learn about this possible start to the epidemic, there is likely to be a significant pool of people already infected.

The story of SARS tells us that you don’t need many infected persons travelling abroad to start outbreaks in multiple countries, you only need one.

As for stopping flights, as we have discussed in this forum numerous times, the country with the outbreak will want to delay admitting having the problem as much as possible. There is no up-side for them to stop flights. So flights will stop only when other countries know about the outbreak, governments elsewhere (or WHO) have gone through the requisite period of ‘observing the situation with concern’, or when airline pilots refuse to fly. All these involve lag phases which give plenty of opportunity for infected people to turn up in multiple cities and causing outbreaks at more-or-less the same time.

People are not going to stay where the first outbreak occurs- die themselves for the good of the many. They will be doing exactly what we are discussing on this thread. They will be making plans to flee to a “safe refuge” with there little pack of essential meds, money and food. Some of them will bring the virus with them as they flee. all over the world- Just as some of us will bring the virus with us when we flee to our rural retreats. This is exactly what happened in 1347- it happened in 1918. The flu virus is a merciless parasite that takes us over and turns us into mobil virus factories and infection distributors. When we sneeze, we turn into virus cannons. When we spit, we leave virus mines. If you look at this from the point of view of the virus- it farms us the same as we farm chickens. It rides us just as we used to ride horses. The virus is this little, not alive, bit of information. It takes us over and we provide all the rest.

it didn’t happen in 1347. Spread of desease was slow. “Not that in multiple towns at once” - outbreak. Neither in 1347 nor in 1918 they had effective quarantining.

anon_22: so, you assume panic, you assume stampede, yet it would take 20 days that people would learn about this ? Wouldn’t you surveille the passengers of airplanes already when panicing starts ? What about starting surveillance of Asian passengers right now ? Would that prevent the virus from entering other countries ?

(sorry, I missed the earlier discussion)

20 days is the CURRENT average number of days from onset of symptoms to confirmation of diagnosis. Read my post carefully please.

sorry, I don’t understand / can’t find it there.

So, how long are you assuming will the time be between first h2h-mutation and public awareness of this, THEN ?

In 1347, the virus moved at 1–5 miles per day- across the known world in about 3 years. In succesive waves- like ripples on a pond. Speed is always relative- at the time, that was very fast. A sailing boat was their jet aircraft. A horse and cart was their car. The pest was in multiple towns at the same moment. Every place on the outer edge of the ripple got the pest at the same time- That is how they drew the maps showing the progression of the disease across the western world.

Because we have jet airplanes that hold 500 people at a time- the picture will be different. In 1347 it was if a rock was thrown into the centre of the pond. If H5N1 goes H2H it could look as if a large handfull of little rocks is thrown into the pond. Instead of one epicentre with the virus progressing outwards- hundreds of epicentres with the ripples overlapping. In other words- the virus will be coming at us from every direction- all at the same time.

Beautiful imagery and a great anlogy. Thanks Clark. That will help me (and others) describe how things will go when it hits, as we try to alert others to what may be coming.

it’s completely wrong, though. The mutation is unlikely to occur at several places at once. You can argue some planes might have some infected people on board (certainly not 500) and this could cause some infections in other countries. But then, we could check them or quarantine them, monitor their contacts etc. And we could even survive without airflights to these countries. Heck, we could even survive without cars,planes,electricity,phones, radio, in 1347. We defeated SARS so easily that we might be able to stand a stronger enemy like H5N1 as well. Yes, I know you discussed this earlier. But that mere fact doesn’t yet convince me…

gs, think of the effect of quarantines alone. The govt will want to shutdown infected cities, but people will know the side exits out that will not be covered at first. And they (healthy, sick, pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic) will flee to other locales. Transoceanic will be different, but other countries on the same continent may not shut down air travel as fast and illegal border crossings will be rampant. A handful of pebbles thrown into a pool gives an excellent analogy.

there is not so much motivation to use side exits. Traveling is a risk. You’d better isolate within that outbreak region and the government is well adviced to encourage and support this, so people will 1) survive 2) don’t infect others 3) don’t try to travel

with the pebbles, well maybe it’s good to explain it to children ;-)

Effective quarantine of any area larger than a small town is not practical. Not enough manpower. It would take a large portion of the U.S. Army to seal off L.A. That is only one west coast city with flights from Asia. When cases are diagnosed on the west coast or elsewhere I can see people beginning to bug out to retreats.Vacation homes, relatives, ect. The effect of this on some rural communities could be very bad, esp. once the flu arrives there.

Manhattan could be quarantined…with disastrous results.

In Britain quarantine of cities is built into the emergency and planning at national leval. This is what will happen and we are talking roadblocks with armed police and soldiers who will shoot to kill when ordered to. I dare say there will be knock on problems but if the authorities want to keep control of the population and the associated problems then that is what they will do.

I dont think the authorities will be dealing with things any more different in America.

There are hundreds of roads in and out of LA. 3,485,398 people as of 1990.465.9 sqare miles. Length of City Boundary 315 miles. That is just one city in the US west. Phoenix is almost as big, size wise. Infections in 2–3 cities and just how is that to be contained? Our military in Iraqi cannot keep insurgents from slipping out( of their cities) when they are on full court press. I just don’t buy it. I do not believe the US government is that powerful or has that kind of resources. That is why I am planning to take care of me and mine.

The problem is simple. Families do not live in the same houses anymore. Family members are going to go to each other if the TSHTF. If you have to cross a quarentine line to be with your sister, husband, wife, mother, child etc- you might still do it- and maybe bring the virus with you. Look out for teenagers- they have always been renegades and have powerful forces attracting them to other teens. Duncan and Scott in the “biology of plagues” traced the movement of the pest from house to house via teenager interactions.

An interesting observation re: teens. I used to work with a pediatrician who had a memorable term for teenagers that I’ve come to appreciate. He noted that like preschoolers, they, too are motivated with that same wide-eyed sense of wonder, curiosity and exploration. While the very young are motivated by a sense of never-having-done-that-before, teens are glandular-driven. He calls them, ‘Endocrine Toddlers.’ I like that.

Look, plain old biology at work. We live well beyond the normal span. In the MIddle Ages you had arranged marriages at 12–14. By 35 you could well be finished. I thinks the kids now are back to that. I was fortunate I had plenty of time to grow up. Now with all the hormones in food, all the stimulation of T.V., films the kids are a lot less innocent than in my day. I didn’t have the material advantages, but good looks and some brains have given me all I ever wanted or needed. We all want to protect our gene pool, its built into us. Maybe this accelerated maturity in kids is to give them life. Party, because Nature will cut it short, since they are the ones who could be hit the hardest.Perhaps it will fizzle, we all hope it fizzles out, but I don’t think anyone who posts here beleives the threat is imaginary.

the teenies have no cars, no airplanes,no money,no guns,no 2nd dwelling, can’t we somehow manage to keep them inside for 8 weeks ?

duct tape and staple gun…

Some teens do have cars; learner’s permits at age 16, and rich parents around here buy their kids cars to let them drive themselves to high school, after-school sports, ect.

Some teens do have guns illegally; read some of the US crime headlines. (Some also live in parts of the country where they are given hunting guns at a young age.)

Some teens do have money; either their parents give it to them, or they have part-time or summer jobs (or they are drug-dealers).

Some teens do have a second dwelling; the divorced parents often have “shared custody”, with the child living in each house part of each week.

Some US teens may decide text-messaging/cell phoning their friends isn’t enough and *have* to go see their friends, or have sex with their boy/girl friend, or have to go get cigaretts, alcohol, drugs, whatever…and might think they are invincible, if they haven’t heard enough about deaths in their age group from the pandemic yet. [Or, they may think they “might as well live it up before they die”! Uh-oh. Bad idea.]

8 weeks is going to be more than some of the adults out there can go right now, unfortunately. I hope there is more public instruction to make preparations just in case: The “pre-vaccine” plan?

I appreciate the comments np1 about the size difference with america and britain and the other factors involved that you mention. I also know that with the riots you guys have faced over there in recent years we saw the turmoil that it caused. Let me assure you though that the planners will have already pinpointed bottlenecks and roadblock positions.

Where as before the rioting citizins in a sense got away with there rowdy behaviour under martial law a soldiers bullet will very quickly sober people up.

Lets not forget that its not just rifles and m16s the soldiers have access to !

As a former US Army medic I am well aware of what is avaiable for crowd controll. Reasons that quarantine will not work include information leakage( word would spread that that area was being sealed off, some people would then bolt )and it would not take more that a few infected people arriving in Phoenix fom L.A. to start things rolling there. I have no doubt that Bush and company THINK they can control this sort of situation, and that they have plans. Do they have plans to get food and medicine to these areas? From what I have seen of planning Docs of far I am not convinced. And GOD, are there a lot of guns in this country. Way too many variables.

Np1 I defer to your better knowledge of american forces. You know your area better than I so you may well be correct.

Without discussing teens, if you want to know about the ineffectiveness of quarantine, all you have to do is look back two years at SARS, which was a very inefficient transmitter. Talk to the Canadian public health people and they will raise the hairs on the back of your neck.

A military-enforced quarantine attempt would be so disastrous that I get a migraine just thinking about it. And Melaine, I would love to be able to speak to someone in the Canadian public health system. Do they have a speaker’s forum that you know of?

There is little doubt among the experts (scientific, medical and military) and quarantining cities would be a disaster. Nonetheless, the official US position as enunciated by the President of the United States and the director of the CDC is that quarantining cities may be employed.

And no, there are no plans to bring food in. Rhode Island has thought of this and recommends that people who have prepped share with their neighbors in the event of a quarantine. Hope they don’t run out.

Are any of you aware that about 2 months ago all of the International Airports in the US set up quarantine areas that can hold and hospitalize up to 400 people each. They were going to start screening all passengers coming in off of international flights who did not look well. We have 17 international airports in the US. I live near Atlanta and which is the home of CNN and the Atlanta International Airport, which is one of the busiest in the world and there was NO news of it anywhere. I heard it off of a Chattanooga, TN radio station and did some investigating and found all the details. Whethere if they announce it or not, the FAA is ready to quarantine passengers once they get here.

Michelle,

I’m sure the “silence” you notice is policy at some level of federal, state and local government. In the case of FAA quarantine facilities, that would be seen as government perogative, no use opening the decision up to public debate.

You can be sure that’s happening a lot in regard to a possible bird flu pandemic because it happens a lot in other areas as a matter of course. Take recent news of NSA surveillance of American citizens as an obvious example.

There’s been some optimism and expectation here that the Federal government would sound some kind of pandemic alarm enough in advance that we could have public debate and participation in policy matters related to public welfare. That may happen to some minimal extent, but I’m more and more inclined to think whatever government intends to do is being cooked up behind the scenes.

I used to travel a great deal, then suddenly I lost interest because of increased security, plus the hassles of rushing from one connection to another. Also it seemed the seating was getting more cramped. Usually you could stretch out a bit if the flight wasn’t overbooked, but suddenly it seemed every flight was booked solid. Now people invite me, and where before I might book a flight and visit on an invitation and a whim, I hem and haw and say maybe next year. Of course they aren’t going to say they might quarentine you for a week or more. A lot of people are like me, and have just decided to stay put and drive wherever they want to go. The ones who still are willing to endure the hassles of coach class for the pleasures of traveling might just think thats the last straw, and stay home, especially since so few take the Bird Flu seriously. The airlines are already in crisis, from 9–11 to the costs of fuel, and the general turndown of travelers. I’ve gotten on a plane with a torn hamstring and a healing scorpian sting. Just grit my teeth and asked for an icepack. I’ve heard people who where ill, examined by a doctor on board who refused to get off (sign release forms that they were advised to go to a hospital) and died mid flight. Now people fly stoned, almost completely inebriated, and ill with fevers. O.K. They pick up the feverish traveler and he’s not allowed on board, the flight will go on with people who were in contact with that person. People do mill about while waiting for a flight. They shop, they eat, in general you can’t shut down the entire airport for one feverish individual. If a flight is delayed for about six hours, people will come in contact with hundreds of others. It might work if the person was stopped on getting off the plane, but what of all those they came in contact with before they got on the plane. Its reallly a nitemare scenario. Like the mailship that stopped and the mail person who seemingly fit and well, went on to a Village by dogsled, and was it 72 out of 80 Village people died?In theory it looks good, in practice a true nitemare.this is just the way it seems to me on the outside looking in, I can imagine its far far more complex. When I was stuck in Las Vegas on 9–11, I had a man from New Zealand offer to drive me in his rental car to L.A. There were people buying used and new cars to get out of town. All the rental had been snapped up. I idled away hours attempting to get a Mercedes convertible in a Casino. (I could have bought a used car for all the luck I had). People tried to hitch rides with other people. People don’t like getting stuck someplace,but we older people tend to be more patient because we haven’t got families that depend on us or jobs we need to get from paycheck to paycheck.That was just an inconvenience, but if it was an airborne, contagion god help us, quarentine won’t do it.

I think the Authorities realise that a quarantine may not actually stop the spread of the pandemic. It would slow it down though. Another factor that WILL see cities quarantined is to stop them losing control. After all they dont want hundreds of thousands of panicking people running all over the state or country with all the associated problems that would cause.

Grace, while we do have a national Health Ministry and a national pandemic plan in Canada, our public health and public health care is mainly organized at the provincial level. SARS was almost entirely limited to Ontario, and more particularly, Toronto, so they’re the ones with the most experience.

Here’s a presentation I just found on SARS lessons from Dr Sheila Basrur, Ontario’s Chief Medical Health Officer, who was at the heart of the SARS crisis: http://www.wcdm.org/15wcdm/wed-basrur.ppt

And here’s a report from Toronto’s Chief Medical Health Officer on a study of the effectiveness of quarantine in controlling transmission of SARS http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/2005/agendas/committees/hl/hl051128/it002.pdf

Ontario’s flu pandemic plan: http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/providers/program/emu/pan_flu/ohpip_mn.html

And Toronto’s: http://www.toronto.ca/health/pandemicflu/

Thank you…

People do strange things. An elderly womans husband died of natural causes, and she just tucked him away in a suitcase, because he wanted to be buried in another town. A neighbor noticed the odor and the police found the decomposing remains. To her it was entirely logical.

Go to the grocery store. Look at the dry milk. Look at the canned tomatoes. Look at the instant mashed potatoes. Look at the beans and rice. Think…how many families would it take, each family with 2 or 3 baskets, to clean this store out of non-perishables. Do this exercise in your head. There will be escape time, but you can probably forget the shopping part. JMHO

Lavendergirl, you have a good point. This example can also be used to possibly get an idea if the people in your area are even stocking up on these items. Of course, you would have to check back a couple of times a week, but still it could give some sort of an indication if you were wondering about the rest of your community and their stance.

this will be only a temporary shortage.The shelfs will be refilled. People don’t eat more nor are there more people to feed. Those who stockpile today will buy fewer tomorrow.

Funny how people clear the shelves when there is a snow storm. In Park City, there is no such cause for alarm, because it is always snowing (seemingly)

I know there are no warehouses here. Too expensive. But there are 5 large grocery stores, and one Mexican market, along the 11 miles I drive to work. There are only 8–9 thousand residents in the whole county. Most of the outlying areas are populated by Mormons who already have storage. I think there will be a good amount of time to shop when the alarm goes off. Especially in winter. The slopes are open late.

The shelves will be refilled. They will be refilled by possibly infected people, in stores managed by possibly infected people, deliveries made by possibly infected people, from warehouses with possibly infected people, all touching your food with a deadly virus that lives 48 hours on surfaces. Enjoy your rice, gs.

you have some weeks before the pandemics comes to your area. goods can be desinfected. I cook my rice.

Your first sentence shows a complete lack of knowledge of the mathematics of pandemic spread, and your second…duuuuhhhhh, micro-organisms are ON THE BOXES and BAGS!

I LOVE DARWIN!!!!! :)

This brings up a familiar question: in a pandemic, how should you handle materials (food, mail, medicine, etc.) that comes from unknown, possibly infected sources. We’ve seen plenty of advice on hand washing, masks, disinfecting surfaces and so on, but what’s the concensus for handling a bag of rice or a box of cereal? What’s practical and likely to work?

70C temperature

Physical characteristics of influenza A viruses

Strains are sensitive to lipid solvents, nonionic detergents, formaldehyde, and oxidizing agents.

They are inactivated by ionizing radiation, pH extremes (>9 or <5), and temperatures greater than 50°C.

Viruses remain infectious after 24 to 48 hours on nonporous environmental surfaces and less than 12 hours on porous surfaces

 > pH extremes (>9 or <5), 

hmm, I didn’t know. Looks like good news. So skin with 5.5 is already challenging and maybe that’s the reason why the flu-virus only survives 5 min on hands. Soap is 9, probably there is soap with PH=10. Or use citrus-acid for desinfection. Maybe there are even acid boxes and bags for shopping ? And isn’t there some drug to make the skin a bit more acid ?

Vinegar

Or grapefruit see extract. Most of the claims come from companies that sell it, but a few studies are out there. This one is about something other than viruses, but does mention that GSE is known to be antiviral too. I use it in skincare products as a preservative. Maybe add a little more?

http://www.jpp.krakow.pl/journal/archive/1204/articles/10_article.html

The best thing to use are the alcohol based hand gels, like Purell or generics. Triclosan anti-bacterials cause overgrowth organisms, so forget triclosan and similar soaps. The alcohol gels feel great and don’t dry your hands. They’re easy to find. At Walmart, GermX, $1.83. At Sams, a giant generic for around $8.00.

Do you guys actually forsee this happening to the extent you think civilization is ending? Hasn’t this been a threat sine 1918? Every year it’s the same thing. Bird Flu fears have always been around. So has the worries of the depletion of the world’s oil reserves, HIV, Ebola, SARS, nuclear war, , bio-terrorism, dirty bomb.. you cannot possibly live in this world and fear the way you fear.

Reality - Do not mistake prudence in planning for a worst foreseeable outcome as fear. From what we know of H5N1 and what we are seeing happening right now in Turkey, the human race is facing a potentially very serious infectious agent. From the pandemic of 1918, we have learned the extent of illness and death that such a virus can inflict.

Much of the discussion you are seeing is between people who are attempting to plan and provision for a 1918 or worse case, in which, due to widespread debilitating illness and a substantially larger than usual fatality rate, normal services and utilities may become unavailable or undependable for some period of time.

As we have sen in the aftermath of recent hurricanes here in the US, and the Indian Ocean tsunami, those who have not made provision for potential problems immediately find that their basic needs are not being met by any authorities around them and face potenitally desperate and life threatening situations due simply to the lack of provisions. So the stockpiling of sufficient food, water, heating and medical supplies is one path many of the participants here are taking to safeguard themselves and their families from this immediate catastrophic imposition of need.

Overlaid on the need to provision against a disaster, much discussion has occured about the best ways to avoid infection, or to treat family members should one succumb while trying to ride out a potential pandemic. For the most part, the discussion has been reasonable, organized, and based on inputs from people with medical backgrounds who contribute to the discussions.

I do not approach this situation with the kind of fear you describe. In my younger days, I flew airplanes, and was drilled almost endlessly on almost any emergency situation I could ever imagine encountering. It was not out of fear. it was out of the pragmatic understanding that stuff happens, and when it does, you are far better off having explored and understood the problem and its potential ramifications and solutions beforehand. By thus doing, you learn to respect the problem situation and not to fear it. That is what many of the discussions in this Wikie are all about.

I would suspect that many people who first came and started reading these threads were initially driven by fear because they didn’t know what to do or how to do it. Many of them have stayed, have learned from others, and are now contributing their own special knowledge to this group effort.

So yes, we do live in the world, and no, we don’t fear in the way you imagine us to.

So now let me ask you a simple question. If your power and water were immediately cut off, and if stores were closed for the next 3 weeks, would you be able to continue living comfortably, or would you become a refugee in search of water and sustenance. I do not need your answer. Discuss it with yourself. If the answer makes you uncomfortable, then perhaps you should begin considering such eventualities and provisioning acordingly.

Excellent explanation Eccles! However I just think that if something to that magnitude does happen that no one can escape outcome.. prepared or not the problem will come to your door be it an unexpected infection or the majority of the pop who didn’t prepare barreling into your haouse and wiping your resources out. And nothing short of your own mini militia can help you in that situation. Look at New Orleans… the gangs that developed… walking around looting, raping… it would be like hell on earth seeing that happen to your family and friends. I almost wouldn’t want to survive and live through that.

Reality 14:18 — So many unknowns. I think most of us are in broad aggreement about potential consequences and a need for preparation. Beyond that, I think you’ll find a diverse array of individual conclusions about it all. For example, I’m not convinced I’ll be facing mobs breaking into my home, let alone the end of civilization. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don’t think so. If I’m incorrect, I’ll be among those at the receiving end of that particular judgement call; if not it means I projected correctly or simply got lucky.

So many unknowns, and for each individual person, an individual conclusion based on their own judgement and for their own reasons.

In response to the original question-

“If you are planning to relocate to a safe refuge during the pandemic, how will you know when its time to leave?” In my opinion, right now would be a good time to get going.

clark, are you serious? (OK, yes, you obviously are, but Jesus, that’s alarming.)

is anyone saying this has gone h2h?

NO, not to my knowledge. The concern now in Turkey is to define the size, locations of the cluster(s), and examine the virus itself for any mutations. IF, I stress IF, a mutation is found that makes it easier for the virus to go bird to human than before, it would mark a serious concern.

would that mean level 4 or does it have to be h2h to go level four? If it becomes easier to contract b2h does that just make it a more alarming level 3? If either of these are true, should we expect many more cases soon? When can we breathe a sigh of relief that this hasn’t happened just yet? Monday, Tuesday, Friday? Any suggestions?

Clark

Do you know something we don’t?

Run for zee hills!!

People ya cannot hide!

What in the world are you guys afraid of??

Live ya life!

Mewja, you may think your funny, you may think you have a real message, you may not be a troll, but your are behaving like a troll. TIME OUT>

Anne

You have made it to the age of 70, you should be enjoying everyday on this planet as you are an elder and deserving of respect! Go and enjoy your trip!

Do Not change your life due to fear!

You have lived too long for that!

Mewja

I’m an occasional visitor to the site and agree with some of what you say. I can’t take anyone seriously, however, that uses “ya” and similar. You say you were around in the 50′s? Surely you should have grown up by now? Didn’t your teacher tell you it’s not big and it’s not clever.

mewja, its not fear. I just don’t like czech Dumplings.

Mewja - Interesting response. You have obviously been paying attention to the commentary on this site for a while now to know Anne’s age. If you are that interested in what we are all about, why destroy any chance of valid participation by acting like a troll? You have about one or two posts left before I and everyone else simply ignores you.

Miss Jean Brodie, Curious, if you don’t take anyone seriously, why do you bother to visit this site?

Anne - Read the entry again. She’s saying she can’t take HIM seriously.

That’s what happens when I don’t wear my 2$ glasses.

Give me another chance .

I will become a helpful partner here.

I gotta head out.

Please I would like to have dialog with all.

I understand the rules trolling will NOT occur.

Good for you, welcome back. There are good people here.

Don’t want to be rude but you must realize that there will be no safe places if this thing happens.

Yes , people here know that. But why shouldn’t they try to help themselves and their families. I don’t intend to hunker down, have had offers to hunker down with people who have the funds to really do a good job of it. I ‘ll take my chances, but I have a sixth sense that I trust to get me through. As good as anything. But self quarentine might work.

Anne, again don’t want to be rude but you seem to be very defensive and jump in on every thread! You seem to have proclaimed yourself as the speaker for this site?

Might I ask why are so many people so concerned about what they seem to think are the delusions of the people who do prepare. They are living their lives, just the same as the rest of you. Maybe they aren’t seeing as many movies, watching as much T.V. or reading all the trash junk about silly celebrities. So they don’t see that much MTV. Yeah I think Kellys, Stuck in the Closet is a minor masterwork, but how many times do I want to watch “Stuck in the Closet” Yes on rare occassions I watch some T.V.. But T.V. isn’t my life.I don’t think the people here are missing very much in their lives. They have a real sense of accomplishment.

I rest my case.

My suggestion is that those who are planning that approach wait a few days before running for the hills. It’s still very worrying but so far no evidence of anything more than B2H, so no need to worry yet unless you’re a poultry farmer in Turkey or thereabouts.

But by all means don’t stop preparing, though, as this is another reminder of what may well be in store. And to those who say why worry if it could get so bad, the answer is that as a species we’ve so far shown ourselves to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of adversity and now is no time to give up. Do what you can, hope for the best and be ready to tough it out and to help each other through this if we have to.

O.K. I do when I feel like it. Am off to see Casonova. Bye.

Hm, perhaps I should just become a lurker.

I find it interesting that Miss Jean Brodie, Desperate Housewife and Pantalaimon all have exactly the same IP address. Would you like to pick one identity and stick to it?

Pantalaimon – at 15:15

“Don’t want to be rude but you must realize that there will be no safe places if this thing happens.”

Given a worst case scenario, I’m more inclined to agree with you than not.

Most important word in your statement is “if”; and there are too many unknowns to foresee if that will be like that. Will it be worst case? Worse than that? Or perhaps less? Even significantly less? Will it happen at all? It cannot be established as a certainty that there will be no safe place to be if this thing happens.

Anne, please don’t do that - I for one enjoy your posts. It just seems to be one of those days where everyone doesn’t want to play nice. Enjoy your movie.

Is it possible for the people here who are questioning the usefulness of preparing/relocating please start a new thread—I’m sure it would get a lot more response than this thread. My original question was addressed only to people who have already made the decision to relocate for the purpose of helping each other.

Hm, perhaps I should just become a lurker.

Pantalaimon doesn’t speak for the site either, Anne.

Glad I haven’t left just yet. I thought they were all the same. Same pretended politenesss. Same style all in all, same fear that the people here are deluded unenlightened fools. If I post in a peppery way, its because I am not preparing as much as the others, but have the deepest respect for what they are trying to do, and dislike the people who simply thrust themselves into a adversarial position for the heck of it.

Anne here. The movie doesn’t start quite yet.

anonymous – at 15:44

Hope you stick around. This is the weirdest forum I’ve ever been on because in general, people aren’t out to “win” the game of forum play — there’s no “pwn” if you’re familiar with the term. No chest beating. Anywhere else in the world, I’m regarded as a pretty intelligent guy. Here, I’m surrounded by people who can outthink me. Oddball place this.

Good point, Peef — that’s a recurrent theme on many threads, so it might be more productive to have that thread and just refer people when it comes up. Pogge - do you have a problem with that — it’s bound to be contentious but maybe easier to manage in one place?

People used to say about my kids that they had brains on top of their brains. We are all a brainy bunch, but as my son said when he went to graduate school (people used to refer to him as a genius), I’m nothing compared to them. I think Anon 22, Dubina, and so many of the others are incredable.

This non genius is off to see Casanova.

Pogge

The multiple identities included two friends who have spent the evening with me, share my concern about the bird flu situation, and not for any reasons of deception or mischief. We had some fun with names and they made contributions and shared their thoughts. This raises two interesting points for me (my husband also looks in and posts occasionally under a different name - another identity/same IP address):

1. I find it disconcerting that if you do not agree with a point that was made, you looked out for my IP address. 2. You are taking an partial stand point just because someone does I do not agree with one of your ‘regulars’. 3. That you would discuss the IP address publicly in this domain.

I have found this site both informative and depressing in equal measure. The former for the good things that I have learnt and the latter because of the parochial and exclusive attitude of regulars on the site.

I thought this was a democratic and anonymous place to be. I don’t like being snooped on. Bye.

Pantalaimon/Mewja

Agree - this is no one individuals forum or exclusive club.

I am a lurker because I choose to be, which is my right, just as Mewja has the right to say what ever she wants.

Mewja dont feel threatened by the fear of ostracization because you dont play by the rules “they” have chosen.

Anne, before I finally go, my unreserved apologies. I should not have made my opinions personal and please understand that my comments were not intended to hurt. I suppose it is because we are all ultimately anonymous on this site that I forgot that there is a real person at the end of the line, not just a name on a screen. Keep up the contributions - you sound like a good person (I got out of bed and logged back on especially to send you this message - it’s late in the UK).

Anyway, I and my friends stand by our earlier non-personal comments (apart from the bit where I said I had two points but listed three - slightly embarrassed) but I’m off for real this time. Once again, a sincere apology.

That you would discuss the IP address publicly in this domain

I did not reveal your address and had no intention of doing so. I merely pointed out that three different identities were using the same computer. If you have any message board experience at all you’ll be familiar with the term “sock puppets” and know that it’s usually done for disruptive purposes. Your explanation is plausible but I have no way of knowing if it’s true. On some sites, sock puppetry is grounds for immediate banning but you’ll notice you can still post.

I thought this was a democratic and anonymous place to be.

Seems to me you’re still anonymous.

In the hope of convincing everyone to stick around and get along, Pogge has a tough job trying to play referee and to keep us all on track vs. brawling unproductively. It’s a fine line but he/she is just trying to make it work for everyone so let’s be supportive.

I’ve disagreed with what many regulars have said here, and on one occasion I let go because I was downright offended. But I’ve learned, as have others, that it’s all about live and let live — debate the facts, but ease up on the personal judgements — if you really think someone’s nuts, better to just ignore them and get the thread back on topic or move on to something else.

Everyone can co-exist if we do that. I may not agree with the criticism that sometimes gets voiced, but people on this site who have been picked on and ridiculed repeatedly by trolls can be understandably a little sensitive on occasion, especially when you’ve been through it all and you’re responding to the same criticism for the umpteenth time. We’re all human and worried and we don’t know what personal stresses someone may be dealing with, so just let it go and get back to the business at hand — we can all learn a lot from each other so stick around and help make it work.

Run for the hills? Not yet. Confirmed H-H then clusters of cases with no birds involved and then no containment by the agencies in charge. Then run. That is my very rough rule of thumb. But I am running as far as my front door and making sure it is locked. If you have to transport lots of stuff to a location far away, you will be in no danger until infection is in your neighborhood and troops show up in full protective gear to tell you “There’s a man with a gun over there, telling you you’ve got to beware, It’s time we stopped children what’s that sound….etc. Then it would be too late. Meanwhile hug somebody. Make love. Read a good book. you know the drill. Just keep cking in with the reality of the situation. I ck every morning and every evening. I have for a year. Oh and on fear, I am a Viet Nam vet, I do class 5 rapids, tought myself to repel off cliffs at 16, and grew up in the gang culture of a large city. I have a managed fear of this pending disaster and enough common sense and love for those around me to plan, listen, think, and thank those people who are taking the time to treat this mess with the respect it deserves. The regulars here are great people…just give them a break.

dude…Stephen Sills 1968. My family and I will also stay put, as well prepared as possible. However, I do anticipate alot of people running in panic to the “country” or whatever is more rural than where they live. (Shades of the ugly bridge scene leading out of N.O. post Katrina.) If people do that, no doubt there will be chaos and God knows what else in many places.

I moved from rural to very rural Arizona in 1987. If you do not feel comfortable where you are living now, move. Explore all facts about why you are unconfortable, collect data about where you want to live, examine new job or career change and make your decision. Do not base this decision on fear( of AF or any other one thing)but upon opourturites to improve your life. But don’t sit where you are in fear.This is why people prep, to feel more secure. I would not want to be in a city when AF goes H2H. But there are lots of reasons why I don’t want to live in the city. I do have a life, and I enjoy it.But I am prepared to take care of me and mine because that is my RESPONSIBILITY. Thank you, I will now step down off of my soap box.

Np1- do you discuss this with your peers, and if so, what has their response been?

Indeed I do. They think I am a bit “over the top” But I am not the only person in my area who thinks this way. I am working on convincing my hospital admim and medical staff that pandemic flu is real and potentially dangerous. I think I may be gaining traction. Went to Az Pandemic Prepardedness meeting in Phoenix yesterday. About 800 people there. Lots of professionals quite a few lay people. I was somewhat dissapointed but I think my expectations were to high. I will try to post more on this later in the week but 1) I don’t type very fast and 2)I have to finish getting the hospital team ready to go to the Rock and Roll Marathon on the 15th in Phoenix. Yes I am running 26.2 miles. This will be my third marathon.

Np1 - I was supposed to be running that marathon too! My training got sidetracked when I bought my new house, moved, etc. I was going to be running with Team In Training. Good luck and my thoughts will be with you. I am proud of you!

Thanks, dude! That’s what I am working toward.

“I have a managed fear of this pending disaster and enough common sense and love for those around me to plan, listen, think, and thank those people who are taking the time to treat this mess with the respect it deserves.”

Oops. Thanks,dude.

Np1, good luck. I’m also working toward the same goal; let me know what works, what doesn’t. I work in a large urban hospital on the East Coast serving a very large number of poor and working poor.

What amazes me, (I am new to the internet ) is how rude people can be, and then feel offended if there is a response, get all huffy and up in arms. But feel people who do try to get along with each other in spite of differing views, must bend over backward to allow the lurkers and trolls and those who wish to disrupt total freedom. Phooey, and poppycock. I do not take offense personally, I take offense collectively. If I appoint myself guardian angel for an hour or two, why I always have. I accept any sincere apology not for myself but for the good of the group.I really don’t consider myself of much importance here, but I respect and like the people here and feel it is one of the most important blogs around. I don’t know internet language, and have no inclination to learn it. I just post my little observations, and if someone benefits in even the smallest way its to the good.There that off my chest, I am not so egotistical as to assume myself correct in any assumption I make. I am not so informed as to post much on the medical or scientific or informational threads. I am a very quirky and independant person, always have been, always will be, but in this instance it is the group that is my focus, not myself.

(Beverage of your choice, on me Anne.)

Perhaps what Clark knew was that “too early” will still work, (but may cause economic, ect, problems if it is months or years, too early)(I wish)whereas “too late”, will not be of any use in a pandemic?

Puzzle we’re all on the radar trying to figure out is: when is soon enough and not too late?

I feel we’re coming up soon to the “soon enough stage.”

That is, we’re getting really close to an intermediate stage before the pandemic. So, there’s still time to prep, but soon it will be mandatory and soon we’ll need plans for where we’re gonna go.

Peej – at 22:22 If you are planning to relocate to a safer place…?

My question is what is a Safer place. Big city have more people to spread the disease - but they will be the first to get supplies (After all if you were the gov. would you send the supplies to one disturbution of a million or try to make thousands of supply trips to a thousand different sites?) However, remote sites will have less spread but more supply problems.

I can’t control the spread factor but I can store supplies. So for me the “logical” answer is that the “safer place” is “here” where I am (I am “remote”) and I should store supplies. I can do that. In short I will not GO but stay. Although I do have a remote site in the forest that has some supplies (basic food, water, shelter, meds) but mainly as a secondary backup storage site.

I have a list of some items to get at the WHO 4–5 levels but to me it is not a “trigger point” -it is just a slow steady preperation and the dissision to stay put. So the answer is not to go to a safer place at a give time, but to make this place as safe as I can. I am a “turtle” not a “rabbit”. Perhaps I will turn into a “rabbit” at H2H WHO 4 but it will just be purishable, batteries, freash fruits, extra fuel,…

The whole idea for me is to have a known safe place and not to live in fear of the unknown.

Seems to me that H5N1 making its way to North America in whatever form will be the beginning of the next phase, potentially the last phase before pandemic.

Once it hits NA in any form, it should be taken seriously that everyone start prepping full swing.

we were wondering about making our OWN stages instead of using WHO’s.

Perhaps this is a start. We can use 1918 info as guidelines.

Phase 1: 1997 h5n1 first infects humans. Brews. Phase 2: January 2006: h5n1 begins to spread in birds more fervently in Eurasia. Phase 3: Summer 2006: h5n1 hits North America in birds. Phase 4: December 2006: h5n1 begins infecting clusters of humans in NA.

we could agree on a system of stages ourselves, then use that as our own guidelines re: prepping.

Maybe I’m not understanding this fully, but I don’t understand the “GO” part of this discussion. If you are referring to making life changes now, pre-pandemic, then that makes sense. But grabbing what you can transport and setting out for “some other place” does not make sense to me. Maybe it is because I have a strong connection to where I live and I have no intention of going anywhere. Our family owns a 75 acre farm. Does that look like utopia to someone from an urban environment? What are you going to do when you get here? What are you going to eat and drink? Do you think I will be ready to welcome you?

Hillbilly,

That’s certainly not an idea of mine (eg., to squat on someone else’s farm)

I know that for many survivalists, the idea of bugging out may simply be to find wilderness somewhere and live by themselves until it’s safe to go back.

I guess it is hard for me to understand the urban environment. But if we do have a pandemic, I’m betting that a LOT of people will survive because they hunkered down in their apartment or town house and rode this beast out. Personally, I have done all the camping I want to in my life, being out in the wilderness for months sounds like lunacy to me. Why add hypothermia, snakebites, etc., etc., to all of the other dangers we will face?

True; but some people’s homes may not be safe.

eg.,

• if you share with others who can’t be trusted to stay put;
• or if your roommates bring guests over with no permission or unexpectedly;
• or if you live in a high-rise (may rather bug out)
• other reasons?

I’m not arguing your point, I agree it would be easier to SIP and I’d rather do that. But I like knowing that if I absolutely had to get out (eg., if government thugs are comign round to bring everyone into trucks to take to some “quarantine camp”), that I could if I needed to.

yep, I’m with ya’ there ricewiki.

Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.