I will be on the Fox News Channel’s “Heartland with John Kasich” in the 8 PM EDT hour tonight in the US.
I’ll be watching. As the say in showbiz,”Break a leg”. MY part-and knock ‘em dead! gina
Good luck, Melanie. But you won’t need luck, you’re prepared, right? <grin> You’ll do well.
Who believes Fox? Don’t make me laugh. I watched it for the first time now in USA, and I’ve never seen more bogus political/economical propaganda ;D Didn’t know whether to laugh or pity.
Thinlina - at 18:45
Unfortunately or not, there are a great number of people who do believe Fox, and watch no other news; we have to think general public, not informed minority. Also, if Fox has a piece on BF, it is pretty certain that the other news channels will follow quickly.
Melanie, you are going to have people from flu wiki all over the globe watching you and rooting you on. We are with you. This is a VERY important step; hopefully the first in a series of reports on BF. Good luck.
Sorry for maybe too straight-forward response… friends again, americans? ;)
rytsuyasun, we posted simultaneously :) I’ll try to see the piece too, if I get back to hotel in time :)
I’m on an island = no cable >>> darn, I would have loved to see you on Fox. Next step, The NewsHour!
Thinlina,
You are only allowed to miss the show if it’s a hot date or you have to work. lol - Just dance a little lighter friend. gina
Yeah, friends again. There are those of us who are addicted to FoxNews - and love our conserative ways, but we all get along here pretty darn well, thanks to the Melanies & DemCT’s etc. And ANY news coverage is GOOD coverage in this respect.
Are you sure, Melanie, that it is tonight? They have no mention of it on their website.
Fox News is the reason I’m paying any attention at all to the Bird Flu and that research led me to this site. I find they give both sides time to talk, as opposed to this country’s network news. They had a strong Bird Flu section that I finally investigated. It hasn’t been updated much in the past week, but it got me started. The FluWiki site is excellent at being bi-partisan, and shows that all important “can-do” spirit, without politics or judgement. I love that. As a very political person I could out-debate just about anyone with my conservative opinions. But here I have a vacation from all of that. I will continue to leave politics out of it, and come together to find common ground. We have a huge problem to solve and the U.S. Government can’t do it. We can do a lot on our own. I’ll be watching too. You’ll be great!
it’s the cable news, not broadcast. Find Kasich at 8pm on the Fox News Channel.
My favorite channel. Unfortunately, my DH and I agreed on watching “Bats” on the SciFi Channel because I am at the computer - so he has the remote! :-) That is a rule that I made but am sorry about it now! I hope they re-run it late tonight. Is that a new show on Fox? I don’t think that I have heard of that guy before. Melanie - good for you for getting the news out again!
I have satellite television and the line up is for the show to be on at 6:00 p.m. mst but I just listened to what they are going to talk about and it was not mentioned at all. I don’t think I am going to get to see it. I was on the channel with the call letters FNC
we won’t know till the end of the hour. She certainly won’t be on for more than 5–7 minutes.
I think it’s a Saturday night only show. It runs in the time period of the daily Bill O’Reilly show at 8 p.m. est.
I got a solution to the TV vs. Computer problem. My kids are watching cartoons on the living room set, my wife sick in the bedroom watching her endless “humans having litters” baby specials, and I have a tiny little TV card in the back of my PC. It is now tuned to Fox, but reduced to the size of a postage stamp on top of the wiki pages I’m reading. How geeky can I get? But I hope to see Melanie without raising a fuss around the house. Good luck, Melanie. Give it your best.
I would love a TV card in my PC. However, the show will probably be on Fox News video tomorrow, I suspect.
Mark Seigel? “The best doctor I’ve talked to….”????? I just lost ALL respect for John Kasich!!!
FoxNews gave them exactly 4 minutes. Kasich completely agreed with everything Seigel said, and only gave Melanie a minute to talk about Fluwiki and no time to rebuff anything Seigel said.
Very good, given that Melanie had 30 seconds. But Siegel’s certainly changed his tune. No “fearmongering”, no “hype” complaints. I’ll take it. And Melanie’s spot was about flu wiki.
marc seigal is a fool and melanie was cool.i bet this place gets loaded with traffic now!she should have gotten more time ,but the threat seemed very downplayed.but at least she was on primetime and giving out the sites address,but i wish she could have goten to say more about the panflu instead of listening to seigal telling us everythings fine,move along,nothing to see here!kind of made me mad.hell it did make me mad.
we don’t get many hits from TV. Cable users don’t run to the internet. We get many hits from internet stories. That’s how it works.
Melanie, good job tonight! Your exposure will help many people find their way to the wiki and will ultimately save lives.
He has…but I think also he was told to keep it as short as possible, with ‘just the facts’, and not to get into any disagreeable discussion. That’s the way FOX does these quicky interviews…wish they could have gone more in-depth on what could possible happen “IF”…but…FOX is conservative…
Let’s see, Dem…you had the podcast interview, Melanie on TV now, we gotta get pogge out of that server room! ;-)
BTW---Melanie: Ya looked great!
well it is sat nite,but dammit she didnt get to talk!i did see the address and i would think it would get a few people looking.
Ouu, I hope so.
and “I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:38″
Yes, we may have different strong political viewpoints, but we’re all in the same boat re. Flu Wiki and the flu, and surprisingly, I find myself 99% non-partisan when I co-habit this place with so many nice people. And I agree >>> THANKS to Dem and Melanie, et al!
Happy Birthday Flu Wiki!!!
He’s pogge. No, we don’t. He stays there… but we feed him. ;-)
Whoops, That was re. Thordawggy – at 20:37
Hey, guys, the wiki is now timing out when you try to open it. Check the hit meter!
Great job, Melanie! Your message was perfectly delivered.
Ok, now the site is opening again, but for about 10 minutes it was getting a time out error when you tried to open the page. A few people mush have checked the link. It’s a sign of progress.
it’s back. And the hit meter wasn’t all that high. But it’s why we need to change platforms moving down the road.
It’s My birthday today!
happy birthday, Keddacate. Celebrate with us!
Yup De, I just reviewed the meter in depth. How often does it update? We may not see the spike for another refresh cycle. I admit it had me worried wiki might be a victim of its own success.
Melanie, nicely done. You only had a few seconds, but you and the address were there, and therefore will be on the website. Another step forward.
wiki might be a victim of its own success
It was once, not too long ago…IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!!!
BB goes back to adding threads to his “kill-list”
Uh-oh! I’ve unleased the beast! LOL!
has anybody gone to the rsoe site and notice that there is a red bird flag at prince edward island canada. They have found geese wi
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=6445&lang=ength avian flu.
birdlady – at 21:28 Thanks. See this thread.
Dem at 20:41: You’re right, Dem. Siegel certainly has changed his tune. I think Dr. Niman would say he is transitioning into the “we knew it all along” phase. He definitely didn’t try to explain away the clusters in Indonesia, which he took the initiative to bring up. And Melanie couldn’t have been any more professional. She plugged the site as a source for more than just bird flu prep. I thought that would at least appeal to a wider audience.
Dem- Maybe Melodie’s calm manner and tone affected Siegel. He did keep running away with his answers but he was definetely on a lower key. Good job, Melanie.
MELANIE,
You were one cool customer. Your professionalism was exemplary. Nobody can accuse you of fear-mongering!!! And its great to finally put a face on the name……
GO FLUWIKIE!!!!!!!!!
Good job, Melanie!
You appealed to the viewers with your comment about the need to prepare for any type of disaster such as hurricanes - not just bird flu - and that Fluwiki can help them in their preparations. Let’s get ‘em here and then they can learn what they need to about BF.
Thanks, everyone. I had no idea what questions Kasich was going to ask, and I knew that Marc would run off at the mouth—he always does (he and I have history) and nothing which I rehearsed earlier in the day with the producer happened, so it was make it up as you go along. I’m a PR professional (but have not done much TV in a while) so this is mostly old hat.
The fun part was the limo ride. They sent a Lincoln Continental which is roughly the size of my condo. I’m not a Fox fan, but of all the media I’ve done, they treat their guests the best. They had a professional to do my makeup, but the hair mess was due to that fact that my hair cutter was sick last week and I’m weeks overdue for a trim.
It was a whole lot of fuss for what couldn’t have been more than 30 seconds.
But ya looked G R E A T ! ! !
De jure – at 21:52
I checked amazon and found 2 books by Marc Siegel.
False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear (August 8, 2005
Bird Flu : Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic (January 23, 2006)
The title certainly changed with time.
His next book titles :
Bird Flu : Prepare now or die
Bird Flu : I knew it’s going to happen
(Just kidding)
ANON,
Those are actually two different books. Marc is a one man book factory, he cranks ‘em out. His earlier one is actually something I don’t disagree with much.
bump
way to go, Melanie! I’m sorry I missed it… it’s definitely a good step forward.
Melanie, you did a great job—cool, collected and professional. Well Done!!
---bowing low before our fearless leader ;-)---
Congrats, Melanie!
We’re all risk communicators at this stage, and want to learn.
30 secs - I bet there’s no way to have that on youtube.com, is there?
If we’re not allowed to link to that from fluwikie, then we might need to have a shadow site, just like shurokin.org (I can’t remember their name but they are the creators of scoop software) had a counter-site, with the same technology and people, but with people just showing their most naughty behaviour.
I would love to see it, if anyone gets it up somewhere like youtube.com. I don’t get Fox News.
Congratulations, Melanie! And A heartfelt thank you for putting youself on the line. For those of us living abroad, ie. not in America, it would would great if we could see the segment also. It is a pleasure seeing the face behind the posts. I’ve checked their site under Heartland with John Kusich but noticed there a line reading, “Last Updated 6.16.06″. Maybe we just need to wait a day or so.
abroad, ie. not in America :-)
a call for filesharing. Please somone with a tv encoder and the knowledge of creating bittorrent files, limevire etc, put the programs on the filesharing networks!
A friend DVR’d it and I’ll try to get the file uploaded to the Wiki later today.
Melanie-unable to see full broadcast, had a bit of a situ yesterday- felt sorry you were up against Segal (was that a furtive side glance towards his side of the screen in the beginning?!) Glad you did so well in the fluwikie2 reviews!
And again, congrats on the success of the wikie!!! (Power to the People!)
Melanie, For a PR person and the time alloted you, you did an outstandung job. You also put a beautiful face to the website. How many websites can boast that? Your hair was chic, so stop being your own worst cridic. You have to know you are the modern “Joan of Arc”, except with a better ending. Wish you the best in all your endeavors. gina
More “Joan of Arcadia” than Joan of Arc, HA-RN.
For those of us in remote places with no exposure to all of the above, what was the show about? Why was Melanie on it? Maybe a brief, coupla-sentences synopsis? At least a topic or title of the show?
Melanie, Absolutely! You have the way of it. gina
John Kasich is an ex-congressperson (conservative Republican from Ohio) who hosts a news roundup on Fox Cable news Sat at 8 pm. The show has 5–10 minute segments, with one or two interviewees per segment.
The bird flu segment was mid-show and very short. The topic was “PEI bird with H5, should we worry?” Marc Seigel explained that it’s not H5N1, and in any case no need to worry because this doesn’t signify the beginning of pandemic flu. He also added that there have been H2H clusters in Indonesia, perhaps many of them (hey, it’s now conventional wisdom), but PEI had nothing to do with that. He treated Siegel with great respect (“my favorite Dr.”, “but Dr, what do you think…”) and introduced him as an ifectious disease expert, which he ain’t.
Kasich then gave Melaine 30 sec to explain Flu Wiki, which she did, and also had time to mention this was an all-hazard approach and a useful site to know. he did not ask her opinion of PEI or anything else - it was “we only have a few seconds, explain Flu Wiki”. The URL was on screen as Melanie spoke. End of topic, on to something else.
Nicely done. As noted, Siegel has dropped ‘fearmongering’ and hype’ from his “one minute drill” vocabulary. Very interesting, that.
And we did not get a lot of hits.. we didn’t expect to. we don’t get hits from cable watchers.
I remember the survey from JoeW some time ago, which showed a good education and information of average fluwikians. I’m afraid, this is starting to go down now with people from TV-shows entering …
anonymous – at 13:13,
As Dem just explained, we don’t get readers from TV mentions.
Dem, one other thing I noticed that John Kasich let Marc Siegel get away with. Siegel stated that according to the experts that he spoke to, some of them think the H5N1 virus may never mutate to a pandemic form. I guess we’re supposed to believe him according to these unknown experts, based on this tenuous hearsay. Then again, Kasich wasn’t really interviewing him, was he?
De jure,
It is entirely possible that the virus will never mutate. Every one from Mike Osterholm on down says so. The issue here is of an event which which is low probability, high consequence.
I had a friend (ok, aquaintance) who was on Oprah once, and she was drilled over and over, take after take, until she could state her message in 10 seconds. Effective soundbites are difficult. My admiration to those who can do this with poise and skill. The things you need to know to inhabit the 21st century!
anonymous – at 13:13 I remember the survey from JoeW some time ago, which showed a good education and information of average fluwikians. I’m afraid, this is starting to go down now with people from TV-shows entering …
In other words, if you watch TV shows, you is dumb? Where is Marshall McLuhan when ya need him?
---back to Red Neck Comedy Tour---
Oh Man I missed it! Any chance it can get posted? Sounds like you did a great job Melanie!
Melanie at 17:10: The point is, identify your sources. Then substantiate, if you can, your position. Anything less is simply mere speculation. Of course, due to the extremely limited amount of time that you had, you couldn’t really address that, even if you wanted to.
My sources are every infectious disease epidemiologist I’ve ever talked to, solidly including the reveres, who are, by the way, convinced it’s never going to happen.
Melanie, In regards to “…solidly including the reveres, who are, by the way, convinced it’s never going to happen”, boy do I wish they would post here. We don’t have too many people on the other side of the fence to balance us out here. Why are they convinced that it is never going to happen? I hope they are right…
I’m confused. If the reveres don’t think that it’s ever going to happen, then why establish (and continue input to) this site? I’m genuinely asking. Not being sarcastic.
I tease them about this all the time. One of them told me that, if prepping is our coping mechanism, denial may be his.
Melanie – at 17:54: My sources are every infectious disease epidemiologist I’ve ever talked to, solidly including the reveres, who are, by the way, convinced it’s never going to happen.
Curious: where did they write that, and why would they think so (and not tell us profusely)?
I would have thought it was “unknown probability” and “looks like probability is growing by the year”?
No-one can be forced to reply to these questions, but I’m intrigued. Not so much about their conclusions, but rather about the facts they select (we all select some facts as more important than others), and their reasoning (we all do our own reasoning). They I’d be able to improve my own selection and reasoning.
Of course, I’m intrigued about what others think, and why.
If there are several “reveres”, then they could say they have a number of opinions. Maybe even more opinions than people, because great brains are said to be able to hold two different opinions, about the same subject, all at once. So we don’t want to know how many reveres there are. Just their opinions and the subjective or objective reasons for those opinions.
I’m curious because I’m open to changing my own mind.
The above “denial” trick may be true, even if - excuse me - it sounds a bit schizophrenic to me. :-?
lugon,
I don’t know that they’ve written about it on Effect Measure, they have a different agenda for that site. Every epidemiologist I know says that we don’t have the data to define a probability—that’s the standard wisdom. That said, every one of them gets asked to make a guess, and that’s all this is. They left a comment with their guess on someone else’s blog, might have been Bob Gleeson’s.
The reveres statement is disconcerting. Why establish and contribute to a site such as this and the message that it distinctly conveys, when their belief is that a pandemic will never happen? I, too, hope that they are right. But this just doesn’t add up.
Bluesfan,
As I said, they admit it is just a guess and they themselves say it may be nothing more than denial on their part.
Another epidemiologist who must remain nameless because I met him under Chatham House Rule said, “Melanie, let’s guess that the probability is in the significant single digits. What would you do?” The answer to that is “exactly what I’m doing now,” which is planning pan-risk.
It should be clear that when you speak to or hear or read any of the experts, they all support preparedness, regardless of whether they think H5N1 will ever go pandemic. That’s because pandemics happen, and the amount of prep needed can not be done last minute.
And the honest ones (which are nearly all of them) say they just don’t know about H5N1. They are skeptical but impressed with what it’s done. And the truth is that Indonesia has them (and us) all nervous. So does China. But they are obligated to note that H5N1 may not be the one - and that it doesn’t matter in terms of prep, for sooner or later, pandemics happen.
Melanie (17:54)”My sources are every infectious disease epidemiologist I’ve ever talked to, solidly including the reveres, who are, by the way, convinced it’s never going to happen.”
Huh?
Echoing lugon@18:11 - where did they write that, and why would they think so…and not tell us…
Boy am I confused…
The reveres are humans. I accept that. Hunches sometimes go against our rational assessment. We act on either. I’m interested in what is it that might support such a hunch, as it deserves to be part of the picture.
Having an agenda is … ok, I’ll say it: it sounds like personal truth is made to fit an intention. And it’s quite likely that we all do it all the time. There’s that saying about humans not being “rational animals” but “rationalising animals”.
Without getting overly phylosophical, I’m still interested in knowing the reasons for such a hunch, so I can improve my own picture.
Like everyone here, I don’t want to be right in my worst fears.
Dem,
Shouldn’t you be having Father’s Day Dinner with your family instead of moderating the Wiki? And I thought the revere’s were bad….
Thanks for the reply, Melanie. Sorry, but I must be extra-dense today because I still don’t get it. The reasoning (denial) doesn’t make sense to me. However, this has given me something to seriously re-think. Why does it suddenly seem like thier’s been a hole shot through the credibility in regards to mission of the creators of this site? Sorry, again, but that’s the way it feels to me.
Well, um, thanks, Dem. That puts things into perspective. I must say, my head practically spun around thinking that the Reveres would post on this topic everyday but were “convinced” it was never actually going to happen, the operative word being “convinced.” And yes, I understood the comment about “denial” as a coping mechanism. This is all interesting information on a number of levels.
Ah, ok, Dem, if they mean H5N1 that’s something different. I agree on that count. It might fade and there would be another “best candidate”. H5N1 is a worrying candidate but we just don’t know. I accept that.
Still, why would H5N1 not be “the” candidate? Is there some specific weak point in that virus that makes it possible that it will fade away or stay as mostly avian?
From a statistical point of view (a subject the revere’s know far better than I) everyone accepts that the probability of an influenza pandemic at some point is 100%. The probability of H5N1 being the candidate strain is non-zero. All of us, including the reveres, are nervous enough about H5N1, Indonesia and China that we have been writing about it for several years on our own blogs. Because we have no data, the revere’s “guess” can’t be based in reason. Their “guess” is no more rational than mine. I live in hurricane territory, prepping is a rational thing to do, however.
lugon, if you read Effect Measure carefully (along with the revere’s contributions to the basic science part of the wiki) you will see that they are quick to state that there is so much that we don’t know about influenza virii that we are in scientifically unknown territory on virtually every front that matters in trying to forecast a pandemic. H5N1 has proven itself to be uniquely talented (my language) and adaptable, but it could be another zoonose which burns itself out without ever crossing the species barrier. We don’t know.
let’s be exact with the wording here.
I don’t think the revere(s) is “convinced” that it will never happen.
I assume he maybe considers the likelyhood less than 50% that we will see
a H5N1-pandemic in the next -say- 20 years.
Every epidemiologist I know says that we don’t have the data to define a probability—that’s the standard wisdom.
(What about Webster’s 50%? What about Osterhaus and Garcia-Sastre
giving privately numbers?)
Again, the wording could be different. “define a probability” ??
Probability is already defined. You can give estimates for your
subjective probability. These estimates may differ from person to person or between the reveres, but they can be given. Saying a probability
estimate “is not possible” is LYING. I know people who succeeded
in giving one. Counterexample.
That said, every one of them gets asked to make a guess, and that’s all this is.
Can you or the reveres or anyone reasonbly define the difference between a
“probability estimate” and a “guess” ? It’s an excuse.
They left a comment with their guess on someone else’s blog, might have been Bob Gleeson’s.
yes, Bob Gleeson’s.
dem, if it’s not H5N1 then why should we be more prepared than -say- in 1995 ?
The convinced it’s never going to happen was puzzling. The nervous enough and the we don’t know looks like my own “unknown probability but higher than zero, looks like doubling every year, and high impact, so it’s worth preparing for it”.
Ah, how difficult risk-communication is!
Anyway, more tomorrow - now it’s family time. 100% sure about that! :-)
anonymous – at 18:55,
I know no epidemiologist who is willing to say that their guess is anything more than that. Semantics doesn’t illuminate. There is no data to back up any kind of probability estimate.
Bluesfan – at 18:38
Some people don’t prep because they never do today what they can put off until tomorrow, even if they know at some level they should.
Note the mission statemnt on the front page:
The purpose of the Flu Wiki is to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic. This is a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies. Our goal is to be:
I highlighted some places. We editors and mods all (including the reveres) are convinced that the biggest mission we have is to go beyond public health and cover the vast array of things that would need to be planned for. We are convinced we are, as a society, inadequately prepared. We are convinced that it can’t be done last minute. And we are convinced that we have no idea when the next pandemic will hit.
Think of it like this: you are the people assessing and evaluating the levees in New Orleans in 2003. You know at some point that a cat 5 storm, like the one that wrecked Galveston TX in 1900, will hit NOLA. You suspect the levees can’t handle it (but can’t prove it to the mayor). You do not know when it will happen. Your neighbors wish to let the good times roll. That uncertainty does not stop you from preparing for when it hits.
Do you have to be convinced that the storm is this year to want to see the levees repaired and a good evacuation plan be put into place? The answer is no. But after a while you learn to live with the uncertainty.
I am a founder of this site. I don’t know if H5N1 is the one. it scares me, though, to think it might. And that low probability, high risk scenario is, after Katrina, good enough for me to be working hard on this site, even on Father’s Day. ;-)
dem, if it’s not H5N1 then why should we be more prepared than -say- in 1995 ?
Several answers. One is Hong Kong 1997 (i.e., H5N1 is getting everyone attuned to where we are at, and the news ain’t pretty). Another is that I’m sorry we didn’t start in 1995. Think of where we’d be now. But there’s no do-overs. We have to start now to be ready in 2015. Another is that the woeful ill-preparedness of 1995 is no longer acceptable post-tsunami and post-Katrina, two world changing events.
Oh yeah, one last point. Melanie and I know a lot of the same people. There are experts who are not convinced H5N1 isn’t the Big One. And they’re prepping.
Melanie – at 19:02 “I know no epidemiologist who is willing to say that their guess is anything more than that. Semantics doesn’t illuminate. There is no data to back up any kind of probability estimate.” ←-I can accept that. The thing that I am grabbling with is why would any epidemiologist be involved with a site which is based on and promotes high-level pandemic preparedness sooner than later, when they are convinced that a pandemic will never happen???←-having trouble excepting that one. Sorry to belabor this point, but it’s really throwing me for a loop! lol
DemFromCT – at 19:13
dem, if it’s not H5N1, then…
Several answers. One is Hong Kong 1997
but that _is_ H5N1.
Did HK97 increase the danger of any other pandemic too ?
Bluesfan,
Dem, the reveres, anon_22 and I have been aware for a long time that influenza pandemics come around three-four times a century. We haven’t had one in a while. H5N1 scares the crap out of anybody who knows flu. As Dem said above, the probability of this being “the one” may be low (we don’t know—no data) but the consequences will be extreme if we guess wrong. All of us also have a commitment to public health and pandemic influenza is a way of focussing on all of the things that need to be repaired in the US public health system. All of us also have a commitment to work at the level of community, not just individual preparedness, so we are public speakers working in our communities, states and at the national level to bring the message of preparedness panrisk.
I assume no one here is “convinced” that H5N1 will be the next pandemic. (or not) Of course.
anonymous – at 19:24
It was Hong Kong 1997 that grabbed our attention in the first place.
“I know no epidemiologist who is willing to say that their guess is anything more than that. Semantics doesn’t illuminate.”
…Semantics has illuminated science ever since there was science: and if it was not illuminated we would all still be in the dark, so to speak!!
I spent nine years in university. If you ask for my opinion, you can bet your *** that I am going to give you an opinion. Of course I am going to qualify the opinion that I will give you…but you are going to get an opinion.
So Melanie, there are virologists, epidemiologists and geneticists etc. who have spent more years in university than me. I and the rest of my colleagues on flu wiki no what is what and that we can only recieve speculation at this point…
…the fact that it is speculation makes no matter, we and the world requires their assessment and opinion…and to abrogate or obfuscate, for whatever reason is no longer an option: particularly for my friends at the World Health Organization.
please, reveres, tell Melanie that she has a serious misconception about probabilities. She won’t listen to me…. Data is at genbank and fluwikie and … Probability estimates are subjective.
Tom DVM, there are those who won’t say “I don’t know”. And there are those who won’t accept “I don’t know” as an answer. ;-)
When the above happens (and it’s happening here) it makes for a helluva conversation.
TomDVM, you didn’t spend 9 years on virology, right ? So I’d still prefer Webster,Taubenberger,Osterhaus,Palese,… etc. to give their estimates. And then to discuss them and improve them. Not only virologists, also epidemiologists, pharma-experts, doctors, but IMO virologists are most important here and competent to give estimates
Tom,
I can’t argue, and won’t, with anything you say, I think we are on the same page, but some on this page have gotten pretty close to making the claim that a guess is a pretty hard number. I have an opinion, too, based on years of studying H5N1, but even I don’t think it is worth much.
This is a low probability, high consequence threat. As a risk communicator, my responsibility it to lay out the complete scenario, including the worst case. That’s what we do here at the wiki.
Back to basics: The Numbers Game, by Sandman and Lanard. It’s about fatality numbers, but might as well be about probability of H5N1. Recommended reading.
There is no Official Flu Wiki probability estimate of H5N1 being The Next Pandemic. We have 10,000 posters a day and 10,000 opinions.
Thank you for your above post(s), Dem. I think I may have become a bit to caught up in what I perceived to be this site’s implied “imminence” in something really nasty happening really soon and believing this notion being fully supported and believed most especially by the experts who created this site and their main reason for doing so. My misconception. I’m thinking I should be separating the benefits of preparedness for any potential disaster from focusing so single-mindedly on a pandemic situation. Just what this thread has left me to think seriously about. Thanks again.
dem, it’s like answering I don’t know on questions like:
“how do you feel” or “what do you think”.
You can always answer something reasonable.
Hmm, how about this paradoxon:
Question: “do you know” Answer: I don’t know.
Bluesfan,
Which is not to say that “something really nasty happening really soon” couldn’t happen. We just don’t know. But it might be an earthquake on the New Madrid fault or Hurricane Wilhelmina before it is panflu. Preparedness is a mental and emotional attitude married to a set of specific actions.
It is interesting to note that the city of San Francisco had one of the better outcomes in 1918 because the government remained transparent and were honest in telling the public what was going on. We wikians believe that knowledge and honesty are core values.
still useful to know, that many of you think that it’s a low probability event. Seriously, who of the average posters here did assume that when listening to these people for a while ? See the survey statistics. The atmosphere in such forums is somehow dramatic building up. Bad news every day …
We wikians believe that knowledge and honesty are core values.
Along with transparency. Bluesfan, Tom and some of the others can tell you I’ve been a consistent ‘skeptic’ and that my answers haven’t varied much (anonymous can verify - Question: “do you know” Answer: hard to say). ;-)
But I’ll tell you this… compared to a year ago, when we founded the site, I’m more worried today than I was then.
SF was hit lately in 1918′s 2nd wave. So it was mild. 3rd wave was bad in SF. Transparency wasn’t the decisive reason.
Add my worry to Dem’s. This has gotten a lot less theoretical for me. I’ll let the reveres speak for themselves (they don’t feel comfortable in the Forum) but the one I spoke with yesterday is actively worrying.
anonymous – at 19:57
There’s a study you likely know well that says that the experts gave a 15% propability to a pandemic within 3 years, while the informed non-experts gave 40%. Yet the non-experts predicted the H2H2H(2H?) in Indonesia better than the experts.
So who is right? And who cares? If you’re talking about even a 5% chance of 2 million Americans dying (or their world-wide equivalents), who in their right mind would do nothing to mitigate that?
As for the Forum ‘tone’ you also must know that it is actually a positive thing. The Flu Wiki Forum has been called a pre-pandemic adjustment reaction, the best kind. Have your panic attack. Get over it. Then roll up your sleeves and go to work. No one is better prepared than Forum readers for whatever comes - nobody. it s one of Flu Wiki’s greatest strengths.
dem keeps his number secret. Keeping expert estimates secret is dangerous
for the world’s health and confusing for preppers.
Another variation:
Question: “are you certain” Answer:”maybe”
>><<
anonymous. Is the sun going to come up tomorrow morning. The correct answer is I don’t know. Do you have irrefutable proof? …and the answer is again no.
Now, if I ask for your expert opinion…then I expect and understand that you are giving an answer based on your professional opinion and history…
…so at this point for an expert to hide behind semantics, to not give an opinion, in my opinion is irresponsible unprofessional conduct because the hedging will be seized on as an excuse for inaction in regulatory agencies, governments and by extension the public…
…we collectively should be thinking of the Asian Tsunami and what would the expert opinion be in Nov.31 2004.
Neither Dem nor I should be considered “experts.” We are informed professionals, both of whom have a professional background in the field, but experts are people like Mike Osterholdm.
Tom DVM
to not give an opinion, in my opinion is irresponsible unprofessional conduct
Are you one of those who won’t accept “I don’t know” as an answer? If you truly think there’s not enough data to say (in your professional opinion) what the odds are, then it is irresponsible to answer. To me the only “irresponsible unprofessional conduct” is if you think you KNOW and won’t say.
“still useful to know, that it’s a low probability event. Seriously, who of the average posters herer did assume that when listening to these people for a while?”
Well since I am one of “these people” I have a challenge for everyone on flu wiki including the moderators…
…Maybe a year ago things were different, maybe six months ago things were different…but today I don’t think you are going to find one expert that will state on the record that this is a low probability event…
…So, let’s collect some names for a list and ask them to state it clearly for the world to see (where is gs when I need him)
My name is Dr. Tom Gastle and for the record a pandemic, in my qualified opinion, is imminent…that is my best guess based on present information and history…ie. will begin within the next twelve months.
DemFromCt. The only acceptable answer is I don’t know for sure…but here is my best guess based on the evidence I have examined.
That is part of the responsibility of being professional…in my opinion.
>There is a study you likely know well that says that the experts
>gave a 15% propability to a pandemic within 3 years, while the
>informed non-experts gave 40%. Yet the non-experts predicted
>the H2H2H(2H?) in Indonesia better than the experts.
if it’s the study that I think you mean, then it’s 29% and 54%. Don’t know what you mean with H2H2H.
>So who is right? And who cares? If you are talking about even >a 5% chance of 2 million Americans dying (or their world-wide >equivalents), who in their right mind would do nothing to mitigate that?
yes, but how much ? Please tell us how much money to spend with 5% and how much with 20%. And send a copy to the politicians.
>As for the Forum tone you also must know that it is actually >a positive thing. The Flu Wiki Forum has been called a pre-pandemic >adjustment reaction, the best kind. Have your panic attack. >Get over it. Then roll up your sleeves and go to work. No one >is better prepared than Forum readers for whatever comes - nobody. >it s one of Flu Wikis greatest strengths.
I liked the internet forum discussions since I first saw it. Much better than real world seminars or table-talks or bilateral letters.
Tom DVM: My phrase for it is a “probable certainty” whether it be the sun coming up or a panflu occurring. And I think both events are just as “probable” given the history of our planet. And the storm cloud of reports racing in from the western horizon seem to portend that the “probable certainty” of panflu will soon be manifested by H5N1.
Medical Maven I agree as usual.
Hi gs. Where have you been?
Hey, find them and post them. For the purposes of your thought experiment, how recent must the in-print opinions from the experts be?
Jan 17 2006 WSJ.
I suspect that’s typical.
Tom,
I’ve never been pseudonymous but I do know many of the experts and Dem’s posting is the righteous stuff, Ian is a friend of ours. If you have the experts, put the links out.
If you truly think there is not enough data to say
I notice the variation “no data” vs. “not enough data”
When will there be enough data ? When the pandemic has started ?
(in your professional opinion) what the odds are,
the (your) odds “are” what you think they are.
then it is irresponsible to answer.
you could mention, that you feel incompetent, haven’t read
a lot about the issue, haven’t thought a lot about it.
But you still have a momentary estimate.
Which will hopefully improve once you see other people’s estimates
and their arguments and read some more papers.
‘’ To me the only irresponsible unprofessional conduct is if you think you KNOW and wonot say. ‘’
and then no one thinks he KNOWS and we won’t get anything. Let’s start with low-quality estimates and then improve.
anon/gs at 20:37: That was your best yet! You hit it between the eyes.
LOL. You are still in the “I won’t accept ‘I don’t know’ as an answer” mode, even though that is the answer. I really don’t know. It’s greater than zero, IMHO and prolly >5% chance for an H5N1 pandemic in the next three years. I’m guessing it’s somewhere less than 25% but even that I’m not sure.
That’s your low quality estimate. That’s way too high to do nothing.
Here’s my low quality estimate:
10% chance in the next three years. The chance of a hurricane here: about 25%. I topped up the gas tank in the car today and added some propane to my preps.
OK, I make your estimate : “5% per year” then.
Unfortunately you are biased by knowing about other people’s estimates.
And what’s the chances for a mild pandemic like 1957,1968 ?
Next variation:
Question: “..?” ((Answer)):”I’m not answering this one”
Is it an answer or not ?
Unfortunately you are biased by knowing about other people’s estimates.
The difference between ‘biased by…’ and educated by…’ is what, again? You may interpret things as you wish. It does not change reality. ;-)
As my friend Tom is fond of saying, the virus doesn’t care.
Not sure if I should post this here, but since this thread has been mostly derailed from the topic header..here goes. Just moments before reading the post concerning the revere(s) thoughts on a pandemic being a non-event, I received a reply from a prominent Doctor who has been graciously answering my questions concerning the probability of a pandemic occuring. In his last email to me he also commented that he believed a pandemic was never going to happen and that it should not be on my Quote”list of things to worry about.”Unquote Hearing that the reveres also feel that a pandemic will never happen and having moments before read the aforementioned email has my head spinning. I agree with banshee -@17:58, that maybe it would be a fair and balanced plan to have those who have opposing opinions post here on fluwiki and that it would be useful for us average folks to hear both sides and most especially I agree with Tom, anon(gs?) that it is time for experts and those who are knowledgeable to lay it out on the line with their best guesses of probabilities. Why does it seem that only those who are willingly to say “never” or zero probability are speaking out, yet those who believe we are in serious danger are hesitant to do so? Am I the only one confused by this?
I mean, when you want more useful estimates, you would first let experts estimate independently without knowing each other’s estimate. Then you let them discuss, make a 2nd estimate,…
Your number or revere’s number in October 2005 would have been a little more interesting. Maybe 40% more interesting, I guesstimate.
For me the probability of a pandemic has risen the last
months, but a mild pandemic or one with many asymptomatic cases
looks more likely now.
Now, a good way to improve estimates is to ask for sub-estimates
for each of the next years, starting in each of several countries,
havindg different infection rates, CFRs, …
probability of a H5N1-pandemic this century
----------------------------------------------
niman : 95%
TomDVM : 97%
Webster : 50%
Dem : 30%
Osterholm : 90%
Osterhaus : 30%
Garcia-Sastre : 40%
Palese : 10%
Lvov : 80%
(what I think what they think, quickly typed and unprepared)
May I suggest renaming this thread? Its very interesting…
Bluesfan – at 21:31
I cannot help you any more than reading this thread (and all of my comments) in its entirety. You are going to have to accept that uncertainty is a way of life. The only way to be certain that something bad will happen is to evaluate it in retrospect.
If you cannot know with certainty (and I mistrust those who are certain, because I do not understand how they can be) the odds of an H5N1 pandemic happening, then you have to evaluate what it means if it doesn’t happen - and if it does. Given that, what do you do?
if you prepare and it does not happen, so what? If you don’t prepare, and it does happen - well, for me the choice is so obvious that I don’t need the certainty of knowing just what will happen.
But it is false hope to expect that the experts will somehow make it all clear. What’s clear is that the experts aren’t certain.
Read the post above from the WSJ. Reread this post. Act according to your own judgement. And if that doesn’t work, try reading some of Sandman and Lanard’s work. Hey, try this, too.
But if we had all the answers, we wouldn’t need Flu Wiki.
BTW, may I respectfully point out this link as well.
Dem, ‘Frustration” in missing in the list of Adjustment Reactions during an Influenza Pandemic. All others are pretty much applicable to me. LOL. (just trying not to follow blindly in either direction, ya know?) Thanks.
To the best of my knowledge, no one predicted Katrina, the last tsunami or the recent earthquake in Indonesia. Alot of experts felt it was possible, but I don’t know of anyone that said it would happen this year……well, it did and a lot of people were unprepared.
There is not a scientist or expert out there that can say when, where or if this is going to happen. There is a strong threat that it could - as was the case with Katrina and earthquakes on fault lines. Take the warning and prepare and forget about trying to figure out when it is going to happen. No crystal ball here - just common sense that these events do take place on a periodic basis.
Then, stay aware and informed. Nature does at times give warning. Look at all of the animals that headed for higher ground during the tsumani? No one knew why they were doing this - they do now. We need to watch and learn from nature. That is all we can do.
Sigh…. This place is nothing if not interesting. In February, every other quote was Webster and Osterholm saying that the pandemic was “not when but if.” Now its the Reveres and Melanie saying otherwise (read their own words - I dont want to put words in their mouths). Im not agreeing either way. Im going to wait until September and see what the mood is then (and by then my computer may accept my typing an apostrophie :-)
Sigh…. This place is nothing if not interesting. In February, every other quote was Webster and Osterholm saying that the pandemic was “not if but when.” Now its the Reveres and Melanie saying otherwise (read their own words - I dont want to put words in their mouths). Im not agreeing either way. Im going to wait until September and see what the mood is then (and by then my computer may accept my typing an apostrophie :-)
Ok, I’m not fast enough with the “cancel” button to correct my incorrect quotes. Good night.
OK, I’m coming in at the tail end, as usual, but for the purpose of ethical communication I will state my own personal position for the record.
I WILL give opinions, on anything, when I HAVE an opinion.
I WILL say I don’t know, about anything, when I TRULY don’t know.
In between those, there are variations such as ‘I’m not sure’, ‘my guess is’ or ‘I suspect this might be’ or ‘some stuff that I’ve read tells me that’ or something along those lines. Notice they all mean slightly different things, but they all mean what the words mean.
So when I say I don’t know, please please please do not EVER assume that I have an opinion that I am not giving. The reason why I emphasize this (and that’s not just for myself) is there is no way to get around that double bind. Imagine someone insisting that you DO know something that you REALLY don’t know - how on earth are you going to convince them since you can never PROVE absence of opinion, can you?
If I have an opinion that I don’t want to share, which does happen, as with anyone, I normally just shut up and not talk about it. Which means my being ‘quiet about something’ means exactly that - being quiet about something.
OK? :-)
Thanks for listening, folks…
Hi gs.
The probability of a pandemic between 2006–2099?
Put me down for 100%.
Wouldn’t many of the other scientists mentioned also be 100% as well?
Actually, it’s 90% chance of happening during their lives, the lives of their children, and the lives of their grandchildren. That’s the way the question was put and that was the answer. link.
This is also the source of the comment above that non-experts were quicker to predict H2H2H than experts, and what happened in Indonesia gave the win to the non-experts on that one.
Hi DemFromCt. Just one additional thought…
… I think it is unethical for a professional or anyone for that matter to say I don’t have an opinion or to say I have an opinion but will not share it with you, when specifically and sincerely asked for an honest opinion…
…of course there are many new norms in regulatory medicine of the past 15–20 years that are quite difficult to understand from an ethical perspective.
DemFromCT – at 21:52: if you prepare and it does not happen, so what?
True, the preparations that I have made are reasonable and I’m glad I have them. But I worry about people that have done things like, say, cash out their husband’s retirement for preps because they are so scared. I’m talking about good, decent people desperate to keep their families safe who maybe don’t always read the fine print before they sign up. Or folks who run up their credit cards because “Hey, it’s coming and I have to keep my family safe at all costs and gee, they won’t make us pay our mortgages if there’s a pandemic, will they?” Yeah, I know, we’re all adults and we’re all responsible for ourselves.
But then I read a line that says the Reveres are “convinced it won’t happen.” We don’t know. I can live with that. I just hope everyone keeps that in mind.
Tom
“I don’t have an opinion” and “I have an opinion but will not share it with you” are completely different.
You’re a damned good vet. Let’s say a client asks you for your honest opinion about their kids’ leukemia therapy. You are going to answer them just because you think a professional should always have an opinion?? Should their pediatrician tell them how to manage the cow, what would your opinion of such behavior be?
Desertstar – at 22:58
That’s why I wrote Moderating the extremes back in February.
I worry about people that have done things like, say, cash out their husband’s retirement for preps because they are so scared.
But do you actually know people who have done that? Is that a theoretical or by example worry? For my part, I try to encourage different points of view here to keep balance and perspective. it does discourage the extremes.
I watch and read and listen to the virus itself. It is like a politician in that you can’t believe what they say about it or what others say about it ONLY WHAT IT DOES. Hee, I love referring to politicians as it. Can I predict? Sometimes, that is a quantum level skill we all have and it is called our gut. When you sleep at night your brain replays and organizes all of the input you received during the day. That is why you suddenly wake up and have a solution to a nagging problem. Your brain also does this over time. You may not be able to put your finger on a specific piece of data or quote that expert. So, my gut tells me, yes, we are going to see a pandemic of serious proportions sometime in the future with enough probability to prepare for that event. In the end any expert can’t comfort me with, I am so sorry I was wrong and your family died because you took my 10% estimate and did nothing. They never undertook the role of responsibility for me and mine. I don’t grant power over my own life and decisions to the experts or anyone. I do and will always do what I think is right.
Hi all: My attention was just directed to this thread and since our views are the subject of speculation, perhaps you should hear it from us. Melanie, Dem and we have discussed this a number of times over an extended period. Our views are not fixed. Also what was not tipulaed was the question of what the “it” means in “it is never going to happen.”
We don’t know if a pandemic with H5N1 will occur. No one does. We can make a forced choice but what good is that? If I demand you tell me who the next President of the US is, you can say, “I don’t know” and no one will question you. If you demand we tell you our probabilities for a pandemic, go ahead. We don’t know. Why is that so hard to accept? Why aren’t we allowed to say it if it is true? Regarding Melanie’s charcterization that we think “it” is never going to happen, that occurred in a casual conversation about an apocalyptic pandemic with huge mortality, social distruption and all the other things commonly talked about here and elsewhere (properly, so, by the way). At the time of that conversation we didn’t see that as a likely outcome and we stilll don’t. You have no reason in the world to put any store in that opinion. We don’t. It was merely an aside in another conversation and worth about that much time to argue about.
Regarding the question, why do we do this or Effect Measure, the answer is pretty simple. A pandemic, even a mild one, is a public health catastrophe and we will all fare much better if we are prepared for it. Preparation in our minds — remember we have spent our professional lives in public health — means rebuilding a robust public health and social service infrastructure. Public health for us is the sum of the choices that the community makes to keep itself healthy and their community a satisfying place to live and work. Effect Measure and our participation in the Wiki is about working with others to make the right choices. If you read us regularly you will know we never participate nor encourage individual prepping discussions, not because we think it’s wrong but because it isn’t our interest. We are about something different. We’re not asking everyone to be interested in the same things we are if it isn’t germane to their lives. But we think the Wiki is an incredibly important experiment in community public health planning and we are proud to be associated with it. We don’t control it and it will become what it will become.
We also think the project of making a community ready for a threat like a pandemic is worthwhile in and of itself. It will have benefits regardless of what happens with H5N1 and will bear extraordinary fruit if H5N1 keeps heading in the direction it is heading in. People shouldn’t care that much what we think. It isn’t that important. Anyone who did something different because we said we thought the chances were 1%, 10%, 50% or 90% would be mistaken. Our views aren’t reliable on that subject, nor do we feel are anyone else’s, no matter what their expressed degree of certainty or the strength of their belief. We know as much about this as anyone around here and if somone says they know the answer to the probability question they are deluding themselves. If that bothers you, we are at a loss what else to say.
Dude- was just ready to write a post similar to yours-could’nt have said it any better.-I would like to encourage anyone who is confused by this thread to just sit back and make their own assessment of the situation-based on the info you have and your own “gut” feeling.All the opinion polls of experts won’t validate your own if you don’t trust yourself. No one has your best interest in mind but you.
well put, revere.
Prepping can be a hardship for many. I considered using my credit card at one point. It can be a stressor to budgets that are already stretched to limit to afford groceries, mortgages, medicines, etc. Many people that I know,lots of them in service jobs work hard for every penny they earn. They are not frivolous. They stretch their earnings in every way possible to feed families and provide their children with daily needs. I can not afford the level of preps that posters here describe. So, I put away a bag of rice here and a case of beans there, but even that is not always easy. I don’t think it would be that unusual for some to go out on a limb with credit cards or savings if they felt that prepping might save their families or felt it was urgent and were convinced it was the right thing to do.
This has been a sobering thread. I have decided to cut back on my preparations. I too can’t get past the comment “the Reveres are CONVINCED…”
And I agree that if there really is just a low probability that this will happen, then I think the tone of the wiki should be toned down to reflect that fact. Fear, it seems, has built upon fear and from reading the posts, it would appear to be a fait accompli that this thing is going to happen soon - very soon.
And yes, I believe that there are people who have liquidated all their assets, quit jobs, moved to the country, postponed having babies and diverted all their energies and finances as a result of the drum beating on this site.
I just don’t know what to think now.
I have been musing the past few days about pandemia pandemonium. Yeah, the idea of a pandemic sweeping through the earth’s population is a terribly frightening one. I have had plenty of adjustment reaction, and it isn’t over by a long shot. Because I have a strong tendency toward anxiety and depression, I work very hard to see the facts, such as they are, with a lot of rational thinking.
My spouse and kids have been really great about watching the preps pile up and not make too many jokes. I heard my husband today quietly telling our skeptical 14 y.o. son, “well, Mom is getting these things because she takes care of us.” That is indeed why I am doing what I can. Not to say it doesn’t make me feel a bit silly. Looking at the preps, the herbs, the tinctures, the gadgets, from an outsider’s point of view, it has to look rather dotty at the very least.
The past few days I have also thought about the echo-chamber effect that accompanies the various flu discussion boards. This prediction thread brings it to mind. What percentage of fluwiki posters and lurkers predict a pandemic in the next 6 months, year, etc? For me, I started out here because of the H5N1 news last fall, I guess. So upon arrival, I was already leaning toward “sooner than later” and higher CFR than lower. I realize that not everyone made it here with those beliefs.
I don’t doubt we all still struggle with Adjustment Reaction, some days more than others. It was unsettling to have more family clusters in Indonesia, just when it seemed thnigs had settled down. I have to admit, when I read other posters’ dire predictons (more often at some of the other sites,) it gets me anxious and afraid that I am not doing every last thing I need to for my family to survive. It really does become a singular focus, and community be damned. For me. Not that I want it to be that way.
So besides reading what experts say, what the news reports, I have to sift through the posts of others who are convinced it will happen in a matter of weeks, to a couple of years, and a very small number of “this is all Rumsfield’s doing.” Having no more scientific research sleuthing than Nancy Drew, it is hard for me to decide how much I need to worry, which I prefer to call “risk evaluation.”
As far as the preps, I feel okay about anything I am doing to fill the larder, buy firewood, that stuff. As it happens, my husband will be “early retiring” from his job this month. He’ll get half-pay, but will need to find a new job. In the meantime, we will have enough soup, pancake mix, canned vegetables and fruits if things get a little tight. Anybody would want that kind of prep cabinet. I always pick up cheap candles for ice storms, and we’ve been without power a few times, so they get used. We don’t get floods or hurricanes here, but we are well set for any deep freeze short of nuclear winter.
Melanie, Dem, pogge, et al, I salute you for the place you set up for us to ponder all of this. I can think of a number of situations where the preps will be handy even if we never have H5N1 H2H here in a pandemic form. I’m pretty sure any other potential pandemic monster will scare me just as much, initially. Maybe this experience of preparing for something which may never arrive will help me the next time something really bad does show up on my doorstep.
Thanks.
Bluesfan – at 00:06
Back to revere’s comments: another uncertainty is how much to prep. There is no consensus. We all agree two weeks is a minimum suggestion (but if you can’t, you can’t. Some folks have no room for storage. Some can’t afford to prep. Some have unsupportive spouses).
Others here are doing more - much more. More than any of the mods. Who is right? Reveres said:
If you read us regularly you will know we never participate nor encourage individual prepping discussions, not because we think it’s wrong but because it isn’t our interest.
It’s also not our knowledge. You know what’s right for your circumstance; we don’t.
My guess is that there aren’t that many who dangerously overstretch, though I’m sure there are some. There are plenty who haven’t started, too.
Hi All- Hi GS, Melanie, would you please stop saying “There is no data”. It is the most annoying refrain on the wiki. It reminds me of “Where’s the beef?”. “There is no data” has probably started more bad natured arguments than any other phrase. If you stopped using it, the wiki would be a more peacefull place. There is plenty of data (information) and it is increasing every moment. We are assessing it- scientifically and intuitively. “There is data”.
Be aware of what a person “does”, not what they “say”. If you are visiting them, look at the things that they buy and how they spend their time. That is what they value. Words are just words.
I believe that by our actions (reading and posting on the wiki) we are showing that we believe/feel that a pandemic is a possiblity. If you didn’t think it could happen, you wouldn’t be here. You would be on a movie site- or a financial site- or a new partner site…
author – at 00:13
One thing I am certain about: we can’t be responsible for other boards.
I would certainly support taking an all-hazards approach. We have enough supplies for your typical New England ice storm, because we know we might need to be without power for a stretch. We have a generator because no power means no well water. That all seems sensible with or without H5N1.
Now, I fully expect that within the year, there’ll be H5N1 in birds in North America, and if not this year than next. The reaction will be interesting to see. Those of us who have been through the adjustment reaction will be better prepared to deal with it than those who have not, and it still may not mean that we have a human situation to deal with (another unknown).
I also should point out that we saw a similar peak of interest → loss of interest in prepping after the Turkey clusters and news and then lull. Some of us go through this cycle at different times than others, and it doesn’t mean ‘all of Flu wiki feels x” or “all of Flu Wiki feels y”. Some of us may even go through it more than once.
I’m just mentioning observations that help put this in perspective. They are not the first time they’ve been made nor mentioned.
DemFromCT – at 23:05: But do you actually know people who have done that?
One of the women who posts here regularly said she did that. I’m not going to name her. Again, I’m not saying you are putting out information in an unethical manner, I just think everybody needs to read the fine print.
Also, referencing anonymous “experts” is really really suspect. I actually personally know thousands of anonymous international experts- most with Nobel Prizes, and they think anything I want them to think. Incidently, they told me to tell all of you that in their considered opinions “there is data”. They said to “pass it on”.
clark – at 00:27
My list of what annoys me is prolly quite different than yours. But if we add everyone’s list up, no one will be able to say anything ;-)
revere – at 23:43 --- Thank you. I do have one comment…you mention that the wiki is an incredibly important experiment in community public health planning.
At it’s inception, the wiki may have been nothing more than that. But after a year of growing, stretching, breathing, and becoming much more than just a place for information and planning, I whole-heartedly believe that FluWiki has become a premier site for the gathering of people of nearly all beliefs and political persuasions who want, or need, to come together for a single goal: To prepare together, seperately, for what may be inevitable. The fact that we have all become quite close as an online community is a major addition…
For that, I sincerely thank you, Dem, Melanie, pogge, and the others who put this “experiment” together…
Desertstar – at 00:35
I appreciate that. We certainly do not encourage people to do more than they can handle or feel comfortable doing.
“More data” from Clark- I am prepping the way a beaver builds a dam, a bear finds a cave in the fall, a bird flies South or a boy goes crazy over the smell of a particular girl. I really know from being a father, that there are things that just overwhelm you, and you do it. Just crazy stuff that is amazing when you look back at it. That is how I am prepping- as if my life depended on it.
BroncoBill – at 00:40
I appreciate that, too. But as I have an awful head cold, I’m going to go to bed.
Folks, it’s good to pull back, think about what we’re doing, and reevaluate and reassess. We should do it periodically. I’m comfortable with what I’m personally doing, and I’m sorry if uncertainly makes people uncomfortable.
But it’s the uncertainty that makes us do what we do. I would point out that the official sites like pandemicflu.gov deal very poorly with uncertainty. If it’s not consensus, it’s not discussed at all.
I an happy with all the various opinions on this site, as well as the valuble information…. We live in a world based on uncertainties and I believe having some type of preparation for possibilities are important.. We may have car insurance, life insurance, home insurance.. Some of these things we may not utilize, but if we need them, we are glad to have been smart enough to have them in place.. All I can say is that in my prepping for the “possible (or probable?)” pandemic, it is my way of having another type of insurance, and/or at the very least I have a full pantry and lots of water.. I have also learned from this site alot about medicine and survival in disasters, all very good information to have as a human being on this earth.. I applaud fluwikie and all those who participate in this forum…
G’night Dem. And hope you had a Happy Father’s Day. NyQuil. Always works. or Tamiflu ;-)
DemFromCt. I’m not sure how we got to myself giving advice on human leukemia’s or pediatricians giving advice on cows but that is a long way from a virologist refusing to give an opinion on H5N1 and a pandemic.
If you believe you have an informed opinion to give…then why not give it.
If you don’t have an informed opinion to give then why not clearly say it.
If you have an informed opinion and refuse to give it because you are afraid of looking bad…then you are in the wrong profession.
An older vet came into our classroom once to give some practical advice which does not occur often in a veterinary school…
…he said that ‘When you loose confidence in yourself, you make it unanimous.’
If you don’t have the confidence to believe in the conclusions you have reached and you are afraid to stand up for what you honestly believe in then you should not be in a position of authority…
…and it’s pretty easy for everyone to see that no one appears to have an opinion.
I do not make a habit of spending precious time on hypothetical disease outbreaks of low probability…there are thousands of these diseases. I spend my time on diseases with imminent potential threat.
There have been ten, count them ten pandemics in the last three hundred years. gs has just provided a list of scientists who say there is less than 100% probability of a pandemic in the next ONE HUNDRED YEARS.
I didn’t just fall off the turnip truck and they shouldn’t have either…so I would like them to tell me once again for the record that despite the fact there have been at least three every century, we have just found ourselves in one where there will be no pandemics…we are definitely one stupid race of animals…I’m continually surprised we did not go extinct a long time ago.
Sorry, that should have read…and it’s pretty easy for everyone to see that no one in authority appears to have an opinion.
Everyone in authority says that pandemics happen and that we should prepare for one. No one says we won’t have one this century. When asked about the probability of H5N1 being the next pandemic, they’re uncertain. What’s so hard to grasp about that? You make it sound conspiratorial. ;-)
My remarks prior were on the general principle that you espoused that professionals should never have “no opinion” as if that’s a bad thing. My ridiculous example was to illustrate that, of course, that’s not always so. If you don’t know, you don’t know. I admire people who say they don’t know when they don’t. It’s so rare.
Good night, Tom. There’s an awful lot I don’t know.
DemFromCt.
gs. or anonymous take your pick at 21.44
“probability of a H5N1-pandemic this century.”
I also have great admiration for persons who “say the don’t know when they don’t” but in my opinion that is classified as an honest opinion…and there is a big difference between that and the ‘dancing on the head of a pin’ that we are now observing daily with regulatory agencies and governments around the world including the World Health Organization and the United Nations.
The ethical problem to me is how history is reinvented by the same authorities after the pandmeic is in full gear…ie. we knew it all along etc.
Tom DVM – at 00:52 --- Tom, my take, for what it’s worth? I don’t think the mods give an opinion simply because many people here look to them as “the voices of wisdom”. It may be that, even if they did have a full opinion of what may or may not happen with H5N1, there could be too many folks who would take that as gospel, and go to other boards, or their friends, and say “So-and-so Moderator at FluWike says it’s so…”, thereby making them libel for any panic “because the owner of FluWiki said it.” The only real authority he, or any of the mods, has here is moderating multiple discussions of what “could happen”. I wish it was as easy as saying “I know this is going to happen because…”, but I don’t believe it is, based on all the “experts” arguing about what might or might not happen.
Also, I’m certain that none of the Mods here are experts in virology (exept maybe Revere). They put this board together as an informational site, and to pull people together for preparations of nearly any type of socio-economic disaster that could inevitably occur if some type of natural disaster takes place. (or even man-made, for what it’s worth).
I’m not dissing what you said, just trying to throw out another way of looking at how the Modertors moderate. And in reference to your first sentence, y’know, nothing personal, but I’m just not sure I’d be comfortable having either of you read my chest x-rays! LOL! ;-)
Hi Bronco Bill. Thanks for the comments. I have obviously not been clear in my explanations on this thread…
…I have and had no problem with the approach of Dem, Melanie or Revere. Everything you said is true about them…
…my problem is with persons in authority ie. regulators, virologists, Governments etc. On one hand they have no problem flat out lying by saying unequivocally that the maximum mortality from an H5N1 pandemic is 2–7 million lives and say so repeatedly even after corrections by Dr. Nabarro and Dr. Osterholm and many others…but at the same time and out of the other side of their mouth, say that they can’t give an opinion on the chance of another pandemic.
Bill, the fact is that bull-**** baffles brains and their lack of an opinion is spin and strategy and nothing else…
…and when the pandemic hits, they will be the first to re-invent history.
They do it because the can and have many times in the recent past. In fact, they are so good at it that now, on a daily basis, they no longer no the difference between ‘truth and fiction’, both means the same to them.
Felicia, despite any uncertainties, in my heart I still feel that it is prudent to prepare and to discuss all of the possibilites. ..for me, it has been a rollercoaster ride at times, trying to discern for myself as I read thru all the posts just what seems reasonable and likely. To echo what others have mentioned, I have learned much from fluwik and am truly appreciative of that. Another great thing about this place too, is that one can express thoughts nearly “outloud” and one’s reactions as they occur and everyone is pretty darned patient and considerate in response (thanks Dem :-).
Sorry, for the typo should have been.. Fluwiki. Sheesh! Bedtime.
Tom DVM --- Thanks for the clarification, and I agree. From TPTB’s side, it is nearly all spin. Part of the problem lies with the fact that they’re scared of the socio-economic impact any opinion they give will have. Even if that opinion saves lives. It’s all about the bottom line, not just in business, but in government as well. Not just to save money, but also their jobs…it’s all about what looks best to the voters.
Can you imagine if the surgeon-general of the US (whom we’ve heard very little from) were to come out and say unequivically that more than 2 million Americans are going to die if there is a major pandemic? What’s the seasonal flu average now? 35,000 or so deaths from either flu or pneumonia due to flu in the US? I think there would only be two trains of thought in the public mind—either “Hey, that’s just not possible today” (head-in-the-sand approach), or “OH MY GAWD!! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!” (Chicken-Little approach).
And, you’re right, especially today…history would be re-written to show that they all said “I toldja so…” But it’s not just now…that’s been going on for decades. But now I’m gettin’ political, and I’ve become a left-leaning centrist liberal Republican, so I better shut up.
And by the way, I’d still be uncomfortable with either of you reading my x-rays! :-)
Thanks Bluesfan, I think you and I are on the same page with this. Oh, and love your name. Here in Chicago, we love the blues!
anon22 wrote:
>OK, I am coming in at the tail end, as usual, but for the >purpose of ethical communication I will state my own personal >position for the record.
is “personal position” different from “opinion” here ? or from probability estimate ?
>I WILL give opinions, on anything, when I HAVE an opinion.
I would say you always have an opinion on anything. As soon as you can formulate the subject, you have an opinion on it. Just sometimes it is more profound and less shallow. But this is continuous, opinion comes in degrees. So the question is not whether you have an opinion or not but how profound your opinion is.
>I WILL say I donot know, about anything, when I TRULY donot know.
how can you ever know, that you TRULY donot have an opinion on something ? When you are uncertain about the matter itself how can you be certain about that degree of uncertainety ? Shouldnot the uncertainety increase when considering not the prediction itself but the reliability of the methods used to make that prediction or estimate ? If you were sure about the methods, then you should also be sure about the result.
>In between those, there are variations such as -I am not sure-, >-my guess is- or -I suspect this might be- or -some stuff that I have >read tells me that- or something along those lines.
yes, but better use numbers for probabilites here. Those phrases above are only good to make that information less clear.
>Notice they all mean slightly different things,
which even depends on subjective definitions and interpretations and varies from person to person
>but they all mean what the words mean.
bit the words are not defined unambiguously and are inexact in that they only specify probability-ranges.
>So when I say I donot know, please please please do not EVER assume >that I have an opinion that I am not giving.
sorry, but I do. The rules of logic are stronger than you starting to write in capitals
>The reason why I emphasize this (and that is not just for myself) >is there is no way to get around that double bind. Imagine someone >insisting that you DO know something that you REALLY donot know - >how on earth are you going to convince them since you can never >PROVE absence of opinion, can you?
because absence of opinion just doesnot exit ? because thinking implies opinion ? You can be ignorant about facts, but not about probability estimates or opinions.
>If I have an opinion that I donot want to share, which does happen, >as with anyone, I normally just shut up and not talk about it. >Which means my being -quiet about something- means exactly that >- being quiet about something. >OK? :-)
looks like a quote from dem.
>Thanks for listening, folks.
sorry, bad format. I hope this is better:
anon22 wrote:
>OK, I am coming in at the tail end, as usual, but for the
>purpose of ethical communication I will state my own personal
>position for the record.
is “personal position” different from “opinion” here ?
or from probability estimate ?
>I WILL give opinions, on anything, when I HAVE an opinion.
I would say you always have an opinion on anything.
As soon as you can formulate the subject, you have an
opinion on it.
Just sometimes it is more profound and less shallow.
But this is continuous, opinion comes in degrees.
So the question is not whether you have an opinion or not
but how profound your opinion is.
>I WILL say I donot know, about anything, when I TRULY donot know.
how can you ever know, that you TRULY donot have an opinion on
something ? When you are uncertain about the matter itself how
can you be certain about that degree of uncertainety ? Shouldnot the
uncertainety increase when considering not the prediction
itself but the reliability of the methods used to make
that prediction or estimate ? If you were sure about the methods,
then you should also be sure about the result.
>In between those, there are variations such as -I am not sure-,
>-my guess is- or -I suspect this might be- or -some stuff that I have
>read tells me that- or something along those lines.
yes, but better use numbers for probabilites here. Those phrases
above are only good to make that information less clear.
>Notice they all mean slightly different things,
which even depends on subjective definitions and interpretations
and varies from person to person
>but they all mean what the words mean.
bit the words are not defined unambiguously and are inexact in that
they only specify probability-ranges.
>So when I say I donot know, please please please do not EVER assume
>that I have an opinion that I am not giving.
sorry, but I do. The rules of logic are stronger than you
starting to write in capitals
>The reason why I emphasize this (and that is not just for myself)
>is there is no way to get around that double bind. Imagine someone
>insisting that you DO know something that you REALLY donot know -
>how on earth are you going to convince them since you can never
>PROVE absence of opinion, can you?
because absence of opinion just doesnot exit ?
because thinking implies opinion ?
You can be ignorant about facts, but not about probability estimates
or opinions.
>If I have an opinion that I donot want to share, which does happen,
>as with anyone, I normally just shut up and not talk about it.
>Which means my being -quiet about something- means exactly that
>- being quiet about something.
>OK? :-)
looks like a quote from dem.
>Thanks for listening, folks.
revere wrote:
>Hi all: My attention was just directed to this thread
>and since our views are the subject of speculation,
>perhaps you should hear it from us. Melanie, Dem and
>we have discussed this a number of times over an
>extended period. Our views are not fixed.
so, apparantly you consider this important.Despite of what
you write below.
>Also what was not tipulaed was the question of what
>the -it- means in -it is never going to happen.-
>We donot know if a pandemic with H5N1 will occur.
>No one does.
But everyone assigns his subjective probability to it.
All you just said is, that this is not 0% nor 100% for anyone.
>We can make a forced choice but what
>good is that? If I demand you tell me who the next
>President of the US is, you can say, -I donot know-
>and no one will question you.
You do know, who you consider the most likely next president.
To get more information better ask: how likely do you think
HC will be the next president ?
>If you demand we tell
>you our probabilities for a pandemic, go ahead.
not demand, but ask. You and other experts.
>We donot know. Why is that so hard to accept?
because it’s not true ?
>Why arenot we allowed to say it if it is true?
you are even allowed to say it, when it is not true.
>Regarding Melanies charcterization that we think -it- is never
>going to happen,
>that occurred in a casual conversation about an apocalyptic
>pandemic with huge mortality, social distruption and all the
>other things commonly talked about here and elsewhere (properly,
>so, by the way). At the time of that conversation we didnot
>see that as a likely outcome and we stilll donot.
Yes, I did assume it was unluckily quoted and misunderstood
by some people here.
>You have no reason in the world to put any store in that opinion.
>We donot. It was merely an aside in another conversation
>and worth about that much time to argue about.
>Regarding the question, why do we do this or Effect Measure,
>the answer is pretty simple. A pandemic, even a mild one,
>is a public health catastrophe and we will all fare much
>better if we are prepared for it. Preparation in our minds
>-remember we have spent our professional lives in public health-
>means rebuilding a robust public health and social service
>infrastructure. Public health for us is the sum of the choices
>that the community makes to keep itself healthy and their
>community a satisfying place to live and work.
>Effect Measure and our participation in the Wiki is about
>working with others to make the right choices. If you read
>us regularly you will know we never participate nor encourage
>individual prepping discussions, not because we think it is
>wrong but because it isnot our interest. We are about
>something different. We are not asking everyone to be
>interested in the same things we are if it isnot germane to
>their lives. But we think the Wiki is an incredibly
important experiment in community public health planning and
>we are proud to be associated with it. We donot control it
>and it will become what it will become.
a large part of the forum is about individual preparation,
like isolation and storing food. This won’t make much sense for a
1957 or 1968-like pandemic.
>We also think the project of making a community ready for
>a threat like a pandemic is worthwhile in and of itself.
>It will have benefits regardless of what happens with H5N1
>and will bear extraordinary fruit if H5N1 keeps heading in
>the direction it is heading in.
yes, but I estimate only 20% (rough guess) of these efforts
were justified without the pandemic threat.
>People shouldnot care that much what we think. It isnot that important.
well, I can also see statements to the contrary in what you write…
But it is quite normal that people think their own views are
more important than others.
>Anyone who did something different because we said we thought
>the chances were 1%, 10%, 50% or 90% would be mistaken.
no. It is important to rely on expert-estimates with your decisions.
What else ?
But better take several opinions and then take the average.
>Our views arenot reliable on that subject, nor do we feel
>are anyone elses, no matter what their expressed degree of
>certainty or the strength of their belief.
so, whoever tells us to prepare or not is not reliable on that subject ?
In your opinion we could as well throw a coin to decide this ?
>We know as much about this as anyone around here
I’m pretty sure, you know more about the subject than the
average reader here.
>and if somone says they know the answer
>to the probability question they are deluding themselves.
everyone assigns his own subjective, momentary probability estimates
to any future event. Those who say they donot are lying and
withholding information.
>If that bothers you, we are at a loss what else to say.
your choice.
Look at the result of this.
People in forums think the probability for a pandemic is 80% per
year, average people on the street think it’s less than 1% per year.
This shows that risk communication works badly actually.
The former group is likely to overprep, the latter to underprep.
Both are negative consequences of the risk communication,
the main reason for this is IMO the lack of expert
probability estimates. We don’t know what experts really think.
They use unclear formulations.
You just saw the surprises in this thread.
TomDVM, the table was about a H5N1-pandemic this century, not any pandemic
“In 1969, there were about 12 million domestic poultry in China. Today in China, over a given year, there are 15 billion.”
interesting
Dem,Melanie are on the lower end with their estimates. There are also Osterholm,Niman,… To the laymen here I recomment to take the average of the available expert-estimates as your own estimate. That should be better than picking the person who you like best. And bear in mind, these are low-quality estimates. I hope some people can improve a bit… Can we store the estimates on a wiki-page ?
The trouble with what you are trying to do (which is laudable) is that the input is so poor that the output is garbage.
People in forums think the probability for a pandemic is 80% percent
Which people? Which forums? If one doesn’t take a scientific survey, we don’t have reliable numbers. This very interesting thread is just a continuation of the “probability of a pandemic thread” series you started a few weeks ago. But you are quite right that taking the average of everyone is better than a single individual you like. That’s the whole “wisdom of crowds” concept we used to start the wiki.
Here are the theoretical concepts behind “smart crowds” (from the book The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki - 2004)
Four elements required to form a wise crowd [not all crowds (groups) are wise].
But your pushing people to answer skews independence, therefore making the your guess of what people meant rather useless, I’m afraid, as when you summarized ‘your interpretation’ of what people thought. Now, I know you meant it as a ‘start somewhere and build’ exercise. But anyone reading it should take it for what it is. Nor do we have an aggregation tool (the online survey JoeW did is excellent but is non-random and non-scientific).
Since this thread is now very long and totally different than what started, i will close it. Start a new one on the topic of your choice.