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What should we be preparing for? I started a couple of thoughts in another thread, but they really need to be pulled up to this level.
From the National Security Health Policy Center; http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/life_sci/TheBirdFluandyou%20Big%20Final.pdf
“How long would an H5N1 pandemic last?
An H5N1 pandemic would probably come in waves. In each wave about 1/4 of the population could be infected. People who become ill in the first wave could also become sick in later waves. Each wave could last about 8–12 weeks, and the period between waves could vary between 8–20 weeks. Most likely, an H5N1 pandemic would have at least three waves and could last for over 12 months.”
We could think of what it would take to plan for 1 to 3 weeks, though to do so would be a far cry from the level of preparation we would need for the above scenario.
+Planning+
The following website is a general disaster planning website, which one can tailor to the flu pandemic; http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/9/161748/9747“Preparing to deal with a disaster is like going off of a ski jump. If you put off your planning until things start happening, it’s far too late to make much of a difference. Once you’re headed down that ski jump, the time for planning and preparation is over.”
So make a plan and determine where you want to ride out the pandemic, with whom, and how and when you will acquire and store provisions. If you are in a city or even the suburbs around a city with a medium to high crime rate, consider a rural retreat, as mentioned in Dr. Grattan Woodson’s paper; http://www.fluwikie.com/annex/woodsonmonograph.htm
If you plan to shift to a rural retreat, consider the need to pre-position supplies, and have a handy container set packed with everything you need, including supplies that will last you a minimum of three days, in case you run into trouble (i.e., congestion, no gas, civil disorder, alternate routing) on the road.
Take advantage of all of the preparednes guides right on this site; http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PandemicPreparednessGuides
Don’t plan completely on your own, think on a wider scale. Get your neighbors involved; when the pandemic hits, you don’t want desperate people right in the neighborhood. Read http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.CommunityPreparedness Of course, break them in slowly, so that they don’t think “survivalist nut” right off the bat.
Continuing to think on wider scale, strongly encourage your town/city/county to plan, prepare, and take actions at appropriate times to mitigate risks to infection, food/water disruption, and civil disorder. Again, see http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.CommunityPreparedness
Food
So how does one buy for 3+ months without requiring a large monetary outlay? We’ve decided to buy bulk foods that we will eat anyway on a rotational basis; buying in bulk is actually less expensive by far over the long run (i.e. 3 bushels of wheat from a local farmer for $24, 3 bushels of soybeans for $21).
A simple set of guidelines can be found at; http://www.aaoobfoods.com/FEMAunits.htm
where the basic FEMA nutritional requirements are presented, along with a simple mix of bulk items that total $365 plus shipping for 1 person for 1 year. That’s $1 per day, which would be impossible to match at the local supermarket. Many people would want to add to this mix, but this shows you how to stockpile without a huge outlay (and the whole grains and legumes make for a very healthy diet plan).
The best way we found to plan to to identify the nutritional requirements for each family member per month, and then set a target for how many months of food we would store. To avoid the confusion of “How much do we really have now?”, and “What should I be trying to acquire in what quantities?”, we found the Ultimate Food Storage Spreadsheet to be a big help, though walk through the instructions first; http://www.eng.utah.edu/~bartholo/FoodStorage/
Everytime we take something out of storage, we mark it off the inventory printout, so that we know exactly how long our food will last, and what we need to shop for on the next grocery run (or online bulk order).
Food for stockpiling should be primarily dry-store, as electricity cannot be counted on to remain operational throughout the duration of a multiplewave, 12–18 month pandemic (if it is that long). One good information source is; http://www.survival-center.com/foodfaq/ff1-toc.htm#contents
MRE-like food (i.e., Army rations) is available, though expensive. Bulk foods are much cheaper in quantity, and can be stored to last for years. Some percentage of ready to eat meals will come in handy, though.
There are many places to acquire bulk foods (google for [“bulk foods” grains beans]), so access now is not too bad, though we have one supplier who is getting bogged down. Spread your orders over more than one supplier to avoid your eggs in one basket.
Set aside a cool, dry area to store the food; shelving is very helpful.
If one thinks in terms of 3 or more months, then consider using methods that will keep the food preserved for at least 1 year, if not 8+ (as we don’t know when the pandemic will strike). We stored food in High Density Poly Ethylene (HDPE) buckets from Home Depot, sealing the food in mylar bags with oxygen absorbers, which reduce spoilage and prevent insect infestation. Storage life in such containers for many grains/legumes approaches 8 years, so one doesn’t have to constantly rotate these stocks; http://www.usaemergencysupply.com/equipment/storage.htm (check other suppliers as this one is getting bogged down)
Tips on sealing food in mylar bags; http://www.survivalunlimited.com/foodstorage/mylarsealing.htm
Don’t forget you need to cook! If your oven/range/microwave is not operational due to outages, there are other means; http://solarcooking.org/plans.htm Also consider regular or backpacking campstoves, remembering to buy enough fuel canisters.
Get a cookbook geared to stored bulk foods, and make sure to stock up on lots of herbs, seasonings, bullion, etc. http://waltonfeed.com/bookindex.html
Avoid the seven major mistakes people make in food storage; http://www.waltonfeed.com/self/seven.html
Water
USDA Assistant Secretary for Food Safety, Richard Raymond;
“…individual citizens must also take steps to prepare for a pandemic with water, with food that doesn’t necessarily need refrigeration for any naturally occurring disaster such as a blizzard, a hurricane, a tornado or even avian influenza that may upset the infrastructure, and warns, “Perhaps the grocery stores won’t be open. Perhaps someone won’t be able to run the water treatment plant. So, Americans should have enough in their homes to sustain themselves for at least a week.” http://www.voanews.com/english/AmericanLife/2005-11-04-voa51.cfm
One could store many water containers, but just one week’s supply for a family of four is 28 gallons. http://extension.usu.edu/publica/foodpubs/watersto.htm
Rainwater capture is an approach that many are taking (unless you can dig a well, and provide a means to extract water without electricity). Some people are putting their rainbarrels within an enclosure that they are also using for trashcans, so that they are not in obvious sight. Rainbarrels can be joined together to multiply water storage. http://waltonfeed.com/self/ws.html http://www.cleanairgardening.com/80gararaba.html 55 Gallon Water Storage Barrel - Amazon.com http://www.usaemergencysupply.com/equipment/waterbarrels.htm
The collection of water must be supplemented by actions to keep the water clean and drinkable; http://www.pep-c.org/waterpurification/ http://www.node707.com/archives/004961.shtml
We will have at least four 5 gallon water jugs that we will have on hand on a rotating basis (pull water from rain barrel and start the disinfection process in 2 of the jugs, while the 2 jugs previously filled are being depleted).
We also have a well, and backup power, but I’ll address power later.
To supplement my previous post, start a garden, or if you have one, consider expanding it. Plan for year around gardening, so that you can have frest vegetables during any season. http://tinyurl.com/cva8s
Learn how to can or dehydrate your summer harvest, as it could come in handy during the next wave.
Power
Because power may not be available frequently, it would be helpful to have some solar-rechargeable radios, flashlights, etc, Include a solar powered battery charger and rechargeable batteries for many other items, such as LED lanterns. http://www.bereadyinc.com/s.nl/sc.2/category.49/it.A/id.16/.f
Assume that you will not be able to run your refrigerator on a regular basis due to power outages. If you must have power for keeping medicine cool or for some other necessity (and TV/Gameboy/Hairdryer/etc are not necessities), then consider one of two main approaches;
Heat
In some parts of the world, flu waves may strike in winter. If power goes out, then there are some combinable options to staying warm;
Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.