I’m on the same page with Eccles and lbb in the previous thread. I don’t have a “tipping point,” it is a question of monitoring and risk assessment. The events of the weekend have caused me to go from green to yellow.
That gives me comfort Melanie, I’ve been at orange for months…
Melanie- Actually, the events of the past week have made me go from pink to green. :-(
I’m already “tipped” as far as pushing to get more of my prep completed now rather than later.
Life is rather overwhelming at the moment and prepping wasn’t something I wanted to put on the back burner.
I’m not sure what will push me into full SIP. It feels closer, but not “iminent” as in tomorrow or at any minute. Just watching and waiting.
I haven’t seen “Dr. Bob” here for a while. He was going to tell us when he was “flashing yellow”. Bob are you out there lurking somewhere?
I am still lagging in prepping, though I have brought extra for others who I deem worth saving in my immediate area. I really feel there is time, in spite of Romania and Indonesia. I think things are perking along quite well. I like what I see and read about the new Director of Who. One good new broom sweeps cleaner than one who has been worn down by many needed compramises however good that older broom may have been. Am getting away from the world of Avian Flu for a few days to refresh myself, and keep from posting. New people coming in, making way for them. Have had two offers of computor systems in the past, but passed on them. Perhaps I will think about a Mac, since I hover around the Apple store now and then. Any suggestions on a laptop by a satisfied user? At this time, because of the people quarentined in Romania for 14 days, I would imagine 2 weeks preps would tide most over, but I don’t feel it in my bones just now. I am using my preps now and then, for turnover. Grab a Starbucks rather than go to Quickcheck, a packet of cookies or a quick snack. It really is quite sensible to prep if you turn it over,and then replace it with some other deeply discounted item. I will never be a dedicated stocker up on food items. They are so heavy to carry. So it will always be a bit here, a bit there. WE will know in time,but I could never stop living fully and completely no matter what happened.It will be interesting to get news out of Romania, on what is transpiring there over their two week quarentine of 13,000 people with all stores closed. How will they manage it. How will they cope. It will be eye opening.
I won’t SIP until it’s all over CNN and has at least hit US shores maybe even state lines. I realize that is risky because of several day incubation period combined with jet travel, flu could likely manifest itself everywhere overnight.
If I were to SIP based on what somebody said on the Fluwikie my employer would question whether I am competent to continue working. What if I pulled the trigger and SIP, and it turns out the Flu doesn’t come for another year or two?
If it looks like the red light might be imminent I’ll be more cautious with mask, gloves, and lysol.
SIP ????
I wondered, I think it means Stay In Place. Quarentine.
Lily and informatic- it means Shelter in place
Which, as Lily says, is just a fancy way of saying Hang out at home and don’t come into contact with anyone till things settle down and there is a viable vaccine
informatic – at 13:39
Shelter in place — SIP
Oops, I’m slow today
We just made our first tipping point and have implemented our “Hotlist”. As I stated in the first tipping point forum, We would wait untill there was H2H. Guess what. We are afraid that this will spread fast as according to WHO they are “stumped” on where it came from and I think it may have already gotten loose.
Bump
For the rest of us, perhaps sharing the secret color code? ;)
I hit my limit in Turkey-finished my preps since then. Just kinda waiting and watching since then…… :(
We have reached our tipping point and will be implementing all of our final plans. From here on out I will be trying to get everything completed as quickly as possible.
Deb
GraceRN- I have no secret color code. My posting denoted the same colors you would use to determine that status of a patinet. I have been my normal pink color all along. But now I am becoming decidedly green complected.
That’s after reading what’s going on in Indo. of course, I guess that’s still decidedly better than Smurf Blue, which I’m saving for a completely different occasion.
Eccles-even when green you are still funny! Let’s hope that smurf blue is never seen on you.
This past week’s been enough to turn even Poppa Smurf green.
Eccles and Grace RN: If my memory is correct, we all picked Indo as the starting point awhile ago in another thread. I hope we were wrong….
After implementing our “Hotlist” the only other step is picking up fresh stuff on the way out of town to SIP. That will come when we see H2H spread.
of course we never feel we have enough preps. Might have to hunt.
Hillbilly Bill – at 14:08
You’re correct- we did make that statement. Hope all 3 of us are wrong, but still unsettled.
I think so many clusters popping up at ths same time has unnerved me.
I have to tell you, honestly I am not even close to my tipping point. I definately am concerned about what is going on in Indonesia right now and I think everyone should keep an eye on the situation. I just feel that there are still too many unknown variables. I must concede that I have no plan to SIP until H2H pandemic flu is actually reported in my state (maybe even my city). However, I do realize that different people have different situations and thus a different threshold than myself. Just keep in mind that Indonesia could be a really slow burn and not a sudden ignition. We just don’t know.
Multiple points on my time tine - based on Product Availability, Lead Time, Cost. I assume that supply limited items will not be available or be very costly when TSHTF.
Decided to buy highest priorities first.
1. Tamiflu/Relenza/Pneumonia Vax - Passed & Done - 6 months ago. 2. N95 Masks, Disposable Gloves, Goggles - Passed & Done - 6 months ago 3. Food (Dried) & Water Stocks: 2 months worth - Passed & Done - 6 months ago 4. Additional Freezer, Foodsaver - NOW - last week in May 5. Additional Food - Frozen, Canned, etc. + 3 months worth - by end of June 6. Additional Consumables - (TP, toothpaste, Bleach, IPA, Soap, Dogfood, etc.) - by end of June 7. Work from home Capabilities - Passed & Done. 8. SIP - *IF* / when H5N1 goes to multiple clusters in “100s” of peoples -
AND/OR the “run” starts on stores for supplies.
I know we’ve gone over this but I’ve just read the fictional scenario page and I’m confused.
If the pandemic strain started in Indonesia, how long would it take to get to the US? I know there are variables so what would the range be?
6 to 24 Weeks?
I read one scenario where people didn’t panic until bird flu was confirmed in their country and even then they didn’t go into a full panic until the flu got closer to their city.
I will have hit my tipping point long before this but if people are slow to react it would allow me to be prepped beyond my imagination.
Let’s say I’m “tipping” yet haven’t tipped…
Hanging in there till I hear hospital staff (in numbers) begin showing up as suspected cases…
It’s easy to say something like “I’m going to SIP at the first outbreak” but, realistically, I have a mortgage to pay.
I’ll probably keep working, and trying to avoid people while working, as long as I can. Fortunatley, I don’t have an office, or even a fixed work site to go to. My company provided me with a DSL connection and a laptop to do my “office” work at home, and a pickup truck to get to other locations where I need to work. Also, I tend to work alone and can usually stay a fair distance from others when I go to a job site.
Of course, if this turns into a real “superflu” that spreads like wildfire and has a high CFR, then all bets are off. I’ll probably go hide in the closet at the first word.
Watch Dog – at 14:25 Do you think anybody from Indonesia has entered this country lately? Or somebody returning from a vacation in Bali? Personally I wouldn’t count on having more than a few days at best.
Hillbilly Bill
I agree with you but I keep reading that people will wait to react.
Banshee at 14:17 seems like one example.
My point would probably be where one of these clusters spreads to health care workers and it is confirmed that there has been a genetic change to H2H. Hmmm, then again, given that the consensus seems to be that WHO and the CDC may not be keeping us up to date on the latest sequences, make that the first large number of small clusters that break out of their initial reporting area, i.e., spreading to surrounding towns, villages or other countries. Better to pull the plug too eary. Since we are retired or close to it, a few months early would be doable on my part.
Preps not done, but are they ever? Could survive on what we have at this point I think.
Hillbilly Bill, you may be right on just a few days. That’s the problem, no one knows at this point.
I’m giving the Indonesia cluster a few more days to see if there is any spread from the initial family clsuter. If HCW or others start keeling over, I move to phase II of my preps, which is stocking up on all items that have shorter life spans, like cereals, crackers, snack foods, etc. Phase I is mostly done (all meds, long-storage-life foods, etc. plus gear like candles, matches, etc.) If I have time for a phase III that will inlcude getting more cash, topping off the cars, immediate consumption goods like fresh produce, milk, etc. What will prompt that action I can’t say yet. I think Indoensia may fizzle like Turkey (let’s hope) but still smoulder under the surface for awhile so is no reason to let your guard down.
I think it depends on whay you mean by “tipping point” of which there seem to be a few definitions. Some people consider it the time when they will procure the last items on their prepping “to do” lists. Some (like me) see it as the point when they will stop going to work, pull their kids from all activities, stop answering the door and not leave the house until the virus is gone. Some probably consider “tipping point” the day they will head for Costco and begin stocking up.
Ok, so the range of time to hit the US would be 2 days to 24 weeks? And then a formal comfirmation would come 1 to 2 weeks later that it’s in the US? And by then it could be in my city and I would know it yet.
Now sounds good -Then maybe I’d have time to get a ton of stuff done that would get me out of the public earlier, but there is not enough money coming in- to get the rest of what I’d like to have (I have what we absolutely need but I discovered on inventory last night that’s barebones and not enough) so I have to stay working. I don’t yet have a real “OK this is it” item in mind that if I heard I would stay home- other than the Sec Leavitt coming on TV and radio and saying it’s here. I think it’ll have to be not until it’s here in the US and then it’ll be a day by day situation. My company is planning PPE for us so maybe I can go a few days longer than I would if we didn’t have it.
I think the consensus here is that we just don’t know and that is why this is such a predicament. It could be next week, it could be next year, or three years or more. I think it is important to keep that in mind. At some point, we will have to accept that uncertainty, make what other preps we feel are appropriate for our situation, and get on with life.
As much as it bothers us, we don’t know when, where or if it will happen.
In 1918 the spanish flu spread over the world in 3 months. People were riding horses and taking ships for transportation then. Not a whole lot of planes flying around.
Drop a frog in hot water and it hops out, put it in a pot of water and slowly increase the heat and the frog cooks. (So I’ve heard, I don’t torture frogs)
When the shoe drops, a lot of people will wait for the other shoe to drop, and so on, and so on, etc.
Know your trigger points and what your actions are. Avoid ammending them if possible.
Laura B- don’t forget you can freeze milk.
Right now, this minute, there are close to 5000 planes flying over just the USA, not counting the ones on the ground. Things move fast in this world.
Banshee
You’re right. I need to get some perspective. It’s hard to act like a normal person if you are in panic mode all the time and there is no pandemic yet.
I do need to relax a bit until we know more. Thank you for the balance.
Watch Dog, Trust me, you are not the only one struggling with the issue of perspective. Why do you think I posted what I did? :)
I’m “tipping” but not yet tipped, after seeing that the city of Ottawa has distributed pamphlets for the general public re: pandemic preparations. I saw a neat little stack of them in a shop by a major bus hub. So an effort is being made to raise awareness around here.
With the developments in Indonesia, I think it’s more likely that a true pandemic will be coming sooner rather than later. My tipping point will likely be when WHO officially goes to level 4. In the meantime, I’m taking preps a little more seriously.
Has anyone else seen local government efforts to inform the general public about pandemic preparations?
Got the 18 W solar panel and deep cycle battery at West Marine that I’d been planning to get. (Already have a couple of smaller panels, 2 W and 5 W, really only suitable for trickle-charging some “jumpstart” batteries.) The 18 W panel should be enough to keep several of my small electronics items running more or less indefinately—a laptop, a battery-powered LCD t.v., small radios, and charing up AA and AAA NiMHs for LED headlamps, etc.
Also made another Costco run: more 50-lb sacks of rice, more cases of canned goods, misc. items.
California
Ottawan - I personally haven’t seen anything anywhere.
I am so confused I have no idea what my tipping point is anymore. I think I just have adjustment reaction points - I hear news, I freak out, and get ready to bury my head in the sand, then DH says I cannot pull the children out of school yet and he still has to go to work, so I become more numb about it all and wait for the next news report to set me off again!!! :-)
Maybe this should be on a different thread, but after all the Indonesia reports,(of which I can’t keep them all straight anymore), what is the next big milestone we’d be looking out for? How many days/weeks do we THINK it would be that we’d see more clusters that would really confirm (if it has notbeen confirmed enough yet) that it is H2H? Or are there more already that I have missed? Or due to all the problems noted in other threads are we just not going to hear of more clusters? Maybe if I knew what to expect next, I know when to really tip.
I’ve been prepping since February, and feel as if I live here though I do not often post. Spent 700 dollars to fill up 2 carts at Costco just this week — more food to take us to six months, paper products, light bulbs, fire extinguishers. It was enough stuff to draw stares, which is probably not too easy to do at Costco in Utah! I don’t feel comfortable with having enough water stored, even though we have a spring nearby and a water filter with high capacity. We live in an urban area, and going to the spring may mean risking infection, or even be physically impossible if we were all ill. We have enough propane to provide 4–5 weeks heat at most, but not nearly enough to make it through the winter months.
I certainly don’t feel that we can count on having any additional time to get prepared — given that the large clusters of 50 or so people are very likely to occur in parts of the world where surveillance is sketchy to non-existent. We are supposed to get on an airplane in July, fly to Boston, and spend 2 weeks in Maine, swimming in untreated lakewater with migratory birds. I suspect I will not be a happy camper, assuming we go at all. What bothers me most about H591 is what we don’t know about it, not what we do know…and I can’t adjust to what I don’t know.
If Romania’s quarantine is considered a success I expect other countries are going to follow suit. I read that there were in one area 13,000 quarantined and today read of 60,000 in another area. How many of those quarantined by the government do you think were prepared? We may find ourselves in that situation & the choice won’t be ours. I think there may be a lot we don’t know about and if BF hits US (in birds) we may not see each region responding the same. Again it maynot be our choice. I thinks its time to be ready.
I am just sitting back waiting and watching. Wondering whats next. I got food, water, medicine, masks, etc. all the usually preps. Will try to buy more. But everyday I read the news online. Watch this forum. Try to understand all the technical stuff. I feel that what is going on over seas is bad. That its has been spreading way to fast for my comfort. And that now is the time to make sure all preps are in place. Make sure you keep a close watch at what is going on over seas. And also I feel that we don’t know all of what really is happening over seas. I wish I knew somone over there that could tell us what is happening. But we have to rely on news reports etc. If i had a color code to go by . Like green safe, yellow watch out, orange get ready, or red the shtf. I say we are at the orange light. The red light goes on when its hit our shores USA. So I would say im leaning over ready to tip. Things I will be looking for what the government is doing. Read between the lines. What who and cdc is doing. What the other governments are doing. What it looks like the situation really is. Not what they are saying it is. I know that there is a meeting this Wednesday coming up with government officals, clergy, medical staff etc. I think its with Mr. Leavitt. I saw it on news now. Must have some importances.
Its like the calm before the storm. Like the fog rolling in . And i am keeping a close eye on things.
I’ll soon be 50 years old. I’ve “survived” massive burns, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, ice storms, divorce, the death of a child, major depression (maybe that was because of the death of my son), loosing my home while on medical disability, living in a place I loathe in order to let my present wife be near her family, and now I’m still suffering from injuries from an auto accident six months ago. I have 2 young (6 and 9 year-old) children and I work a contract job that has no sick leave for a huge company that has huge “business continuity” plans that I’m not a part of.
I think maybe I’m tired of “surviving”and the idea of just “surviving” again.
I have skills out the wazoo. I used to run a nuclear power plant, I can rebuild an auto engine, I’ve managed massive building projects (into hundreds of millions of dollars), written databases, made websites, comforted the dying, sent help to strangers after 9/11 and Katrina, assisted in births, done things most people only image they can do – but now I feel old, powerless, and hopeless. I can’t come up with the money to “escape” living in a high-rise death-trap if TSHTF in the next 6 months - and if I do I may have to leave my wife and children behind because she thinks I’m just looking for an excuse to leave NJ and head back south where the population density is lower.
Any words of wisdom, beyond the “Pandemic Preparedness” psych stuff, would be appreciated. Anyone know of a community in the Carolinas that needs an Emergency Preparedness or Emergency Management person feel free to give me tap. I just don’t feel much left to live for if I have to wait here to watch the bodies pile up.
Bird Flu Burn-Out Syndrome - Cluster 1, Index Case
TRay 75 - When we had a series of things that happened to us that was horrible, I looked around and became very angry. I felt very alone, knowing that other family and friends were not going through such an unbelievable chain of trials. It would have helped me at the time to know there are actually people out there who had the same bad luck. I felt I had been so broken by events that I could never again be a productive member of society, but amazingly enough, things finally improved. It took awhile though. We also lost a son. I won’t put the other things down because this is about you, but I do want you to know I understand. I would not have believed someone telling me things would get better, but they did. If you don’t give up you will learn that you have a core of strength in you that will come forward if you have patience. My words aren’t wisdom, but sometimes it feels better to know someone understands. Good luck.
First of all you aren’t old - I’m chronologically older and I’m not old by any means. You have your family to live for, the future is not known and you’ve already been through so much therefore I know you are capable but right now perhaps feeling unwilling.
You sound like a hands on type of person who isn’t afraid to get in there, get your hands dirty if need be, be strong if need be. We are thousands of miles apart living very different lives but you are here at this website so I think you do have some power & hope underneath it all.
Please tell us what steps you have taken to prep. Have you shared them with your wife & can you come to an agreement?
Previous to your email today I was thinking what would it take to have families set up in say mobile homes at various utility facilities, train them if need be, provide them with all the preps necessary and security. This could ensure utilities were kept up and running throughout the country, give someone like yourself an alternative to your existing situation. I know the logistics may seem overwhelming but bring it down to the regional and you could have an answer. What do you think?
Bump
TRay75 - While not the worst they could be, I’ve had a lousy past few years. Marriage is barely alive, no job, bills piling up and the mortgage company calling every day. Lots of skills but no one to hire me. My daughter is the only bright spot. Your idea of not even trying to “survive” struck a chord with me. Sounded like a good idea for a minute there!
But there’s no way I’m going to let these past few years be the last ones of my life. No way in hell. If I go down then so be it, at least it will be God’s will and not my own. So, my words of advice -other than spending your loose change on tuna fish- pray, and spend time with your children.
TRay, similar background to yourself. Been there, done that, no more Everests to climb. Former CEO, two degrees, I fly, Scuba dive, Sail, Ski, travel through deserts, hunt, shoot, fish and so on. I can build a house or rebuild an engine and enjoy it.
I had a wife who didn’t even think about where the money came from, or the risks that I’d run providing for her and the kid. She scoffed at any precautions I took regarding bird flu just like she did about SARS (And we had cases in our city).
We are now divorced and she has realised she made a mistake, but sorry. No going back.
My advice to you is to make some plans that include you and your kids, but not the wife. She is not worth trying to save. If nothing happens, she will tell her friends you are a crackpot. If something does happen, she will find fault with your preparations and later claim the credit for whatever has occured. Get rid of her.
TRay75 at 00:19
Ulysses said “Endure, my heart. Far worse hath thou endured!”
I suspect you did this post in a bout of depression, because anyone with your marvellous gifts, your accomplishments, who has endured so much in your heroic life, can never surrender now. You can frame words, but you wouldn’t know HOW to quit.
You’ve had no practice quitting in life. Becoming a quitter isn’t natural to a man. It takes effort, practice — and you have obviously not put in the hard yards to get there!
Hang tough, Brother.
Thanks folks. I had to find some way to get out what I have been feeling inside, and - let’s face it - most people you would talk to about something like this would either roll their eyes or get the dreaded glazed-over “he’s gone over the deep end” look while nodding and looking for a convenient exit.
I’d gladly put all I have into setting up a “reserve corps” village to keep the lights and communication running, to plan and prepare to have the trucks, vans, planes, barges, and railcars maintained and ready to roll to get help where it is needed. It’s what I do best, it is what I have done most of my life – be it on a smaller scale. In the deepest of ways, it is what I live for because it is what makes me feel most alive and to feel that the hard lessons on my life have not been a waste.
Maybe one of the lurkers from some of TPTB (the powers that be) will stumble across this and want the help. If so, I’ll go out on a limb and give them this email link MrTray75<MrTRay75@hotmail.com> and I’ll give them my real email to start a dialog. I’d pile my stuff in my banged up old Nissan and start driving tomorrow if I knew there was a place that needed me to be there that would let me bring my family to the “compound” once it was ready.
That looks to be the real problem of this “plague” when it comes – having what we need where we need it when we need it. It’s why we plan, and why you other preppers are the model for the rest of humanity. When I read some of your responses it brought tears to my eyes to not feel so alone or to feel crazy for “seeing the lights of the on-coming train” while in this “dark tunnel” of knowledge without capacity. I’ll be watching. I even went as far as to outline the situation in an email at work 2 days ago and volunteer to work with a task force for preps that went to the 2 top managers in the organization. I figured if I wasn’t in the plans there, it wouldn’t hurt to make the offer, and if they had no plans to keep me around they might play their hand and let me go in time to move on before things got bad. There has been no response, which in and of itself “is” a response if you understand large corporations.
For now, I have an hour to get my kids dressed, fed, and to school before work (the wife has to be at work at 6:30, me at 8:30, so you can also call me Mr. Mom). And Allquietonthewesternfront , Prepping Gal, and anonymous – at 06:07, Thanks. BroncoBill, if you don’t mind bumping this to the next thread when we update today, I’d like to see this dialog continue a bit. We may be on to something here.
TRay 75 - 2000 was the year my life fell apart. That is when I lost the idea that I had “control” over anything. I found that breaking my life into compartments helped. I try and do a little in every compartment every day. Sometimes it is very little, but it keeps me moving. BF is now one of those compartments. Prepping has actually been a benificial activity because you can evaluate the results with checklists and the mounting food supply. Delight in the little positives (yesterday I “found” a spot to stash 9 rolls of paper towels, freeing up room for heavier canned goods elsewhere). I don’t know if I will be alive when TSHTF, but every can of greenbeans tucked away says I love you to someone. Good Luck, post often, others do care.
TRay 75 — I’m just an average woman, I just turned 50 and in the last 10 months my mother died at 88, 6 days later my second oldest cat died at 16 and just this month my 22 year old cat died. Besides a divorce behind me (and now a very solid marriage), that’s been probably the worst that has happened to me for me to have to deal with, other than finding out I’m an ADHD adult, which brings problems of it’s own! :-)
As part of ADHD, depression is a factor that I always have to consider. I found myself crying over a bridge documentary once a few years back, and that’s when I realized I was clinically depressed.
I’m like a runaway train at times and when I get a ‘cause’ to work on, I throw myself and a lot of our money into getting my husband & cats set up to meet the crisis. More often than not, my husband thinks I’m crazy. Like right now. He knows I’ve kept a pantry stocked since Y2k, and it’s certainly convenient, but of course now I’m not only filling in food that I had stopped storing & now also stuff for sickroom, trying to store for a longer period of time, etc. I’m just an average person who’s quasi-prepared.
I say all that in order to help you see where I see myself in relation to knowledgeable, strong people like you. You’re the kind of person I would support in every way were you in my city/neighborhood and were developing a plan — You’ve faced hard decisions, and undeserved burdens, & I know that creates a great leader in people, no matter how discouraged that leader might be.
I can’t stack my life up next to yours blow for blow & say I remotely understand how you feel because my life has been different & not as challenging as yours.
But what I can do is give you a soft sermon (my dad was a preacher for 50 years). I don’t know if you’re a person of faith other than faith in yourself, but if you are or were at one time, maybe this will give you some encouragement. You have every right to feel like your God has let you down, but the God I believe in doesn’t cause the problems we have in life, BUT He also doesn’t miss an opportunity to use a bad situation for good somehow, someway. It may take awhile & some perspective to see that, but I’ve found it’s true.
If you know anything about gardening, there’s a lot of work that goes into it…planting seed, weeding, watering, harvesting. In this world, not everyone gets to be the farmer who does all this work alone. Rather it seems that we find ourselves at a time or a place where our job for the moment is to be the person who waters the seeds that someone else has planted. Someone else may come along & weed, someone else may harvest. Sermon’s over.
Now how to apply it?
I can’t convince my husband of anything — that’s just a fact. We have a solid marriage overall, but I’ve somehow lost his confidence in me in this crisis type thing (probably due to Y2k) — he tolerates what I do, but he doesn’t involve himself in it, and when something like bird flu is mentioned, he gets sarcastic & cynical.
So I rarely talk to him about it. What I DO though is I send him emails at work sometimes with a link to an article from a business magazine or from a ‘reliable’ source like a government website so that he thinks about it in terms of work & his role as leader/provider to his staff, his company & to me.
I’m having to trust in what I believe — that I may plant a few seeds, but it’s going to take someone else to water, weed and harvest my husband’s understanding of this crisis. I just keep planting and holding to my faith that he’ll start talking to me about this. Meantime, I’ve got us prepared to some extent so that when he ‘gets it’ we won’t have to start at square one.
I hope that analogy will make sense…..Consider your role…..are you the planter or the waterer, maybe the weeder in the overall effort to get people to respond positively to BF? Depending on decisions you make you may or may not be there to see the harvest of your wife’s understanding, but you could also get ‘eaten by an alligator’ tomorrow and not see the harvest either.
Define your role & keep doing that over and over and over and have faith in your amazing abilities. It may be that your BF job description is to plant ideas & thoughts to generate action in OTHER people, not your own family.
Or if you’re the weeder, that may mean that on occasion, when you spot a bad weed-type idea (overhearing someone say they’re not prepping) you need to step in and pull out their bad idea and make room for the good ideas to grow stronger.
Right about now, my father would be giving an ‘alter call’ at the end of his sermon, but I ended my sermon awhile back so I’m just going to say that you have the ability to analyze your situation & define your role in relation to others and map out how to positively approach these issues.
Think of us as your employees in your company sitting around your conference table for support, just let us know how we can be of help to you…you ‘lead’--open up a brainstorming session—and we’ll ‘follow’ with ideas.
Thanks for your honest post — there are so many people who understand some facet of what you’re experiencing — stay in touch with these people, & gain strength here one day at a time!
Tray, a good friend of mine and top notch engineer was fairly depressed because he was the type who always wanted to be in the “fight”. A talented electrical engineer with a License to run any size power plant in New York State. Although work was challenging, he was really missing something…So he joined to local fire department and soon developed friendships, took the hard training to become certified and is practically running the place. The first responders to major emergencies in his town will be the Fire/Rescue team and will likely be tapped to help coordinate disaster relief. Just a suggestion. His self esteem is a full 10 out of 10 now when it was a fledgling 2 at best. This new found energy has spread to all other areas of his life. Hes actually nice to be around now. Good luck anyways.
Tray75,
I fully understand how you are feeling. Lost our son last year in an auto accident, and my mother here at home in Feb. Limited preps and no help from family since they think I just reacting from stress over the deaths….Needless to say, they are struggling with many things themselves, but I wish we were all together on this… Without sounding too morbid, I have to say that the thought of my death is less upsetting to me now that other loved ones have gone, but I still want to do as much as I can for everyone else. The thought of little ones being left without parents or other adults is too much to think about, so I will keep on keeping on until it’s all played out. What else is there????
I guess maybe if I can get beyond my own grief, (which is just at the surface every minute of the day) it will somehow benefit those around me?????? Too much on my mind right now…Please take care of yourself..
God Bless
TRay75. maybe a crazy sugestion but here it goes.. Norway is in deep need for educated engineeers.. get a job here, fish in the quiet lakes, and rent a nice flat in the non urban areas.. 50 is no problem as long as you know how to work.. As an american with a job, you may stay as long as you want.. you may even have some family here..
TRay75: We (society) need you. First off, any teaching you can do here would be appreciated by me at least. Secondly, I suspect that when things really heat up you will be able to ‘write your own ticket’, trust me, people are starting to pay attention, now it’s just going to be a matter of hooking up all the right people.
Surely you know by now how to take disadvantages and make them work for you. Think carefully about your wife as a prep( does that sound heartless? I don’t mean to offend). If ‘Mr Mom’ is off running a power plant or figuring out how to get society up and running again. who is gonna watch the little ones? Have you told her ‘just the facts’ about how you are feeling?( I am sure you’ve heard it all before- start sentences with ‘I’ not “you” ie if my hubby said to me ‘I feel left out’ I would have a less defensive response than if he said ‘You always ignore me’) SURELY there is a safer location that would be an acceptable compromise(even in NJ). Heck I’d take a trailer over a high rise and I live in tornado country!
You are definitely on the right track, looking for solutions and getting some great minds behind you.
Re: Sahara – at 14:47
I think it could be a good idea to have levels of tipping points:
What do you think? Should there be a couple other “tipping points” in here along the way? Sounds corny, but if we make our own system we can refer to it and let us all know where we really are in the prep/tipping progress. I’ve passed tipping point#1 in March, but am definitely not near #2 yet.
ricewiki @ 12:08
My opinion is that it’s a personal decision, and what works for one won’t work for another.
I’m-workin’-on-it - I too discovered what had been thought to be severe depression for almost 12 years was in fact ADHD and got professional help. Within a week of getting on a treatment routine and getting off all the anti-depressant medications I “woke up” for the first time in years and was able to make the major life changes I needed to begin rebuilding. I think that a lot of what I have been dealing with recently has been situational depression, not clinical depression. If I wasn’t depressed about some of the things going on around me I would be insane. I like your analogy of a garden, and I do believe that all that has come before has had some part or reason in preparing me for what comes next. You hang in there too. It is cliché I know, but as for being prepared – “It wasn’t raining when Noah built the Ark!”
Leslie – Maybe your talent for finding those small spots that let even a few extra cans be stashed away will be the little thing that saves the day for you or someone else. 30 years ago I was a short, skinny kid in high-school that worked my butt off doing things to keep work between the school staff and the students. My grades were just shy of what made “Honor Roll”, but we also had service fraternity that unexpectedly inducted me before an assembly with these words I have never forgotten. “It is that which we call the small things that are the causes of great things.” They fit you.
x – at 08:39 – I think that may be what happened to your friend is happening to me. Maybe in part due to un-treated ADHD for a lot of years I would excel at something, grow bored, and move on. Now I understand why, and I have found that like diabetes medication can and has “awakened” that part of my brain that was fighting to be present and keep me in the here and now. I need the challenges, and I can definitely survive the hardships to put things together. Thanks for the idea.
Mary – Don’t give up yourself. If TSHTF and we do loose the thousands or millions we fear, a mother’s love to just one child left looking for “Mommy” or “d\Daddy” that they will never again see may make you the most important person in the world.
Urdar-Norge – I had not really considered Norway as a place where a Southern-speaking American might find a place and a purpose, but I have always appreciated the Norse people of history for the bravery, skills, and daring that they gave the world. I’d be honored to think that I might be of value in land renown for its progressive thought and hardy souls. It appears I have some research to do. My only concern is that because of my ADHD I never managed to finish a degree, so I’m not a licensed engineer, more of a self-taught information junky that never found something I couldn’t do if my heart was in it.
kc_quiet - I’ll take that trailer happily to this. I grew up fairly rural NC, close enough to the large cities to get the best of both high-tech, urban support and still go home at night and see a sky full of stars and neighbors I knew I could call on if trouble came. I learned a weather radio comes in awfully handy too. My wife, on the other hand, grew up in a row home, next to an 8 lane bridge into Philly. she has a beautiful, kind, giving heart - just her family is here, and mine is there, and we had 3 horrible years of circumstances that made her want to run home. Now, I see a threat, and my support is not here. The folks here are just like people anywhere - they want the same things - a chance to raise families safely, a chance to enjoy some of their time away from work, a chance to mean something to themselves and others. The only problem is that there are just too many people in too small a space, so if TSHTF the germs have nowhere to go but down the hall or all over the limited spaces we share. And that is what terrifies me the most. My wife and I have some work to do, yes, and I have not given up. But thanks for the perspective because it has been a casualty of the non-stop survival mode.
Wikians, these are times coming that may “try men’s/women’s souls” (paraphrasing Churchhill). The worst thing I have felt in a long time was the uselessness and hopelessness I expressed here last night. Today, just by sharing, you have taken me off of my tipping point and back into life. After all, if what I was feeling when I first posted was life, who would really have wanted it anyway. When the time comes we may have to hunker down and a lot of people may feel just as I did. This forum may well save sanity as well as lives. Thanks all.
Mary – at 09:14
Talk to your social services, family services (whatever it called in your state). You can sign up for foster/adoptive/emergency care. It takes some “classes”, background checks, CPR classes, home inspections and such- but when you are through you get a “home study” and can take in a child that needs help if you want(your choice). I am positioned to take in an orphan in an emergency. Most of the children have “problems” but you can often change a life for the better. If this flu really does have the death toll thay are projecting, there will be children that need someone just like you. The point here is to focus on what you can do to improve things. Sorry, I am not good with words, but you can’t help the dead but you can change a life. I have preped for one extra child- just in case I can help later. Position your self to help just one child and you have done much more than most governments.
ricewiki – at 12:08
I’m wondering if calling it a “tipping point” is a misnomer. Maybe I should call them plateaus of more preparedness or something similar.
For instance, the recent stuff in Indonesia caused me shift some of my budget dollars around. I haven’t gone any further into debt, but shifted the money from the “luxury” side of the equation back into the food budget and stocked up for another month in canned and dry food products at the local grocery. I still don’t feel finished with the food issues, but I’m certainly closer than I was before. I’d like to get another month’s cushion in there before I go back to buying “luxury” items.
Now, I can foresee something else happening that would lead me to go out and get into debt, but we aren’t there yet … at least for our household. I refuse to use credit cards and my hubby only uses one business card that gets paid off at the end of each month’s billing cycle. But, nothing happening now makes me want to change that balance.
I can also foresee me doing a sudden splurge and stocking up on more charcoal and propane. Right now I’m comfortable, but that could change as I get further out in my food storage plans.
If things calm back down considerably then I can see me going back to saving money for luxury items and then at some point ramping back up again.
As for as SIP, I’m not sure what will cause that to happen. Haven’t felt that yet. Hope I don’t feel it too late.
I’m remaining balanced and fluid with my plans. That’s the best I can do at the moment.
A few days ago, (out of town) I ran into my neighbor who feeds the swans, and who always counters anything I’ve said about B.F. with we will all die sometime. She asked about a new neighbor in back of me digging something. I said I heard the noise, but I ‘m rarely around and don’t pay much attention to neighbors doings, perhaps he was a prepper and was digging a well. She gave me one of her we will all die sometime remarks. (She had said there where no deaths in 2006) I told her 15,000 people in Romania were under a 2 week quarentine, and a number had died in Indonesia. She countereed with filthy living conditions in Asia. I said I knew a lot about living conditions in Asia. I told her I was getting a prep basket ready for her. She asked, What is in it. I said tuna, rice and toilet paper. She laughed. She has lectured me about various things in thirty years and she knows that I don’t pay the slightest attention to what she says, though I always, say, Your absolutely right M… but you know me, in one ear and out the other. Now I’m giving her a bit of her own medicine, and its in one ear and out the other.A heart of gold, I hope the lady listens one of these days.
Perhaps my first tipping point will be when M…. finally hears what I”m saying and starts prepping herself.A very fine line between hearing and doing something rational, and hearing and ignoring.
Call it an “Action Level” or “Action Step”.
DennisC,
Thank you for the advice. I happend to stumble onto this site this a.m. from another link and was impressed at the depth of your posts. You sound like compassionate people and I appreciate the help. This whole bird flu stuff is pretty overwhelming but I have to admit that these are also tremendous times and I have a lot of hope for the future..
Thanks again, and BTW we happen to have adopted 4 special needs children. The first one came to us in 1994 at the age of 12. (oppisitional, defiant disorder) whew! definatly a learning experience….The other three came each a year apart of each other and I have not regretted any of it, although I am tied close to the home now…..Yes there is a need out there and I would not hesitate to help out more if need be…….Take care everyone
DennisC,
Thank you for the advice. I happend to stumble onto this site this a.m. from another link and was impressed at the depth of your posts. You sound like compassionate people and I appreciate the help. This whole bird flu stuff is pretty overwhelming but I have to admit that these are also tremendous times and I have a lot of hope for the future..
Thanks again, and BTW we happen to have adopted 4 special needs children. The first one came to us in 1994 at the age of 12. (oppisitional, defiant disorder) whew! definatly a learning experience….The other three came each a year apart of each other and I have not regretted any of it, although I am tied close to the home now…..Yes there is a need out there and I would not hesitate to help out more if need be…….Take care everyone
Lily,
I have also used that idea of making a gift basket. I like it, it worked well. I spent $60 and filled a plastic bucket with little items and a prep list.
Kathy in FL
Yes, plateaus are a good term… but I guess there is often something that sets off a plateau? I know that when I read the two main updates on Indonesia (Karo cluster, then this past weekend), each time I went out and bought another prep item. I find that helps. For me it’s less about a specific trigger than many little triggers along the way. Each bad news item, I am reminded about another prep. I’ll keep doing this until my budget comes around again.
my tipping point, I plan on holing up when it’s in my state, would like to go sooner but as a single parent household I need to keep bringing the money in to buy more preps and pay bills. I hope that it of course never hits the fan, but to at least wait until I can afford a wood burner and a freezer. Sigh
Yesterday was a really bad day for me. Different levels of reality for different days. Sometimes I feel so overwhelmed that I would like to hide away from everything but instead of curling up in a ball and rocking I did an inventory of my preps to date and played with my seal-a-meal, it’s kinda cool!
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KimT, I wanted to get to this earlier but got distracted. You are not alone on different levels on different days. Keep sealing those meals and I’ll have some big space saving tips to post tomorrow to help with your preps. But for now my wife says I have to stop wikie and go to bed. And she is right.
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With the quake and the health problems in Indonesia, and the lack of real effort or even capacity to monitor for additional H5N1 outbreaks in the region until some degree of infrastructure is restored, are you closer to tipping, the same, or having second thoughts?
No. I still think we have time. How much is another story.
I’m more concerned about Mt. Meriopi. Years ago saw a film in Seattle about the Mt st Helen erruption. 3Dimentional. Like flying into the erruption, vertiginous feeling. I don’t think Indonesias troubles are over, and if it really goes, were in trouble also.
Mt Merapi.
I had the thought today that we keep thinking in terms of these tipping points, as if there will be a “point” at which the pandemic will be upon us. We say things like WTSHTF - a specific event with a time and a place. It is clear that this kind of designation can only happen in retrospect - after one sees the evolution unfold altogether etc.
My point: maybe we will never KNOW WTSHTF, when it actually hits the fan. Some have called this “not knowing until it’s too late”. Others have called up the story of the frog that gets boiled in water with a slowly rising temperature, so slow that the frog doesn’t notice it is too hot until it’s too late. I’m starting to feel as if this might be the way it is going to happen. I don’t think we’re in super hot water yet, but I think we should do a discontinuous comparison with, say, three months ago, and six months ago, just to compare the water temperatures, so to speak.
eg.,
I think these incremental type analyses are very importnat, and make it easier to “read” what’s going on. Helps to get perspective.
I guess I was just wondering, like others have, for a moment that what if the pandemic was upon us now. How would I be thinking about things differently. etc.
Ultimately I am not sure there is much value in that exercise, but I still think it’s good to do the incremental analyses.
I agree that we will probably not know until it is too late. Unfortunately I live about ninety minutes from NYC, and a lot of people commute to work from here. My guess is that someone will contract the disease from a third world country and bring it back to a large city and before you know it will be all over the US. Hopefully we won’t be exposed to anyone who has come into contact with BF before we can SIP.
ricewiki – at 01:49
I’m happy you wrote that. I was thinking the same thing. I’m almost thinking it would be nice to have a “have you tipped yet” thread. It would be nice for the rest of us frogs in hot water to know if another frog has jumped out.
Areas to watch for US spread when the shift happens: I-95 corridor from NY to FL, I-10 from CA to FL, I-40 Ca to NC and I-65 LA to IL. The long runs on these interstates will be like arteries carrying the cotangent to the metro areas. How fast these roadways become controlled may do more than halting air travel to buy time, but it will also slow replenishment of stocks to the metro areas in the process.
Tray75: I read some expert predict that it will arrive in California first (most likely brought in on some flight from Asia) and will move from there. I would guess that major airline hubs (Chicago, Houston, NYC, Denver) will be the next routes. It makes sense that it will first appear and move from the plane routes and then may take a route that is conducive to transportation (major highways, etc).
Janet, correct on initial human vectors coming by air, but the real penetration spread will be rest stops and truck stops on the Interstates. The airport is the primary entry point, but the distribution hub to local populations are the highways. More people pass through I-95 aroung DC in an hour than through JFK, O’Hara, and Hartsfield in a day. A lot will keep mix at roadside McDonalds and those mega-rest stops between DC and Philly. From there it can go to cities large and small in a matter of hours as if it were being deliverd by FedEx or UPS. Transportation is the lifeblood of the economy, and a pandemic.
I am not “tipped” just leaning to a 45 degree angle.
The sick nurse today (see news thread)is a major concern. She had cared for the 18 and 10 year old cases. The best I can tell is that they don’t have the tests results on her yet- but if they turn out positive- that would be a major signal for me.
Remember that the new Nature report (yesterday’s news) said that the virus differ now “in that they had much higher viral loads in the throat and nose”. That is not good news.
The fan is on and I smell something.
“WARNING WILL ROBINSON, WARNING, WARNING! Sorry, I could not resist. When there was confermed H2H2H we started filling our “hotlist” (Our final preps) Now I am glad we did. Today will probally be my last here on FW as I start a new Job on Monday and will be out in the field. Thank all of you for all the help, advice and good laughs. jon
Ya know, I’m starting to think this here bath water is getting warmer than I’m comfortable with. But never mind, I’ll just sit here and soak a bit longer before I react.
I knew it- Eccles-you are indeed Kermit the Frog (in warmish water)
With the overall situation in Indonesia, the confirmed H2H and now the news about the viral loads in throats and noses, we’re also getting the last-minute prep items.
jon c, all the best to you and your family. I hope your new job is rewarding. Stop in when you can!
Eccles: That is one of the ways the ancient Romans liked to “exit” when they saw no hope. Nothing like going out in style.
Just kidding. I know you will be out there with us fighting and scrapping “until the last bird dies”, fighting in the trenches with our bared can opener. : )
Eccles, yes the water is warm- notice also that the “The girl’s 10-year-old brother died Monday with similar flu-like symptoms, but no samples were taken,….The boy died in an emergency room before being treated, and the family immediately took him home for burial, he said.”
One has to wonder, how many more cases are buried and are never seen by the hospital.
I don’t see much discussion here about the Nature article but that is a major thing for me (moving to greater viral loads in the nose).
I know- just set back and relax--- now if I only had put some bath salts in my prep list.
Thanks MaMa
Eccles – at 11:13
I’d love to soak and chat longer, but there’s a bag of rice at Sam’s with my name on it.
BTW, those bubbles on the surface; gas out of solution, or gas out of you?
Hey everyone, let’s keep some perspective (I’m doing a dialectical devil’s advocate from my earlier post here). While much is going on behind the scenes, much has not been confirmed yet.
Today I’m feeling a different kind of unbelief or denial about this… it’s starting to seem unreal, as in “hypist” again. Maybe this is because I’m on the forum less lately, have a bit more distance from it all. I think that we could have been equally concerned 8 months ago about this. I could have. It’s not clear to me how much, if anything is worse… aside from more cases. But what do I know, I don’t study cleavage sites or phenotypes…
I just feel that the more one learns about it, the worse it starts seeming, when objectively it may not have changed much at all (the risk).
The nurse with bf thread is interesting, but is not confirmed yet, so I can’t really be concerned yet. Again, maybe I just feel this way because I currently can’t afford to be preppign more, and I don’t currently have the time, so I’m just rationalizing to make myself feel better about it. We’ll see…. my opinion is very open to revisions…
make that “.. longer term prep plan” … - add a “better typing” manual to those survival kits.
really weird, a post I saw and I just corrected disappeared, so here it goes again: Maven and Eccles: Thanks guys! Good luck to you jon c, I hope to be joining you in the new job move area before the summer is out, so let us know how it is out there.
I’m not going to tip just yet. All my instincts say “Go to Red Alert, Shields Up, Phasers Ready!” but there is just one little quiet voice inside that tells me that this is how I normally react, and reacting gets me into trouble. Earlier in this thread a lot of complete strangers helped me get out of a real sweating panic about this situation. I can make adjustments, that is what being human is all about - we adjusted to about every environment an threat for the last couple of million years. So I will continue my better thought out longer term prep plan, and hope that this is not the one time that listening to the quiet voice was the wrong thing to do.
I won’t be tipped until RAPID H2H2H is documented (or at least unofficially reported). It can go H2H for a long time and stay in Indonesia for years without traveling if it stays as it is now, having a penchant for certain family genes, etc.
When there is a sudden, fast spread (within a week’s time) to several hundred people…that’s my top off tipping point. When it is reported in the US, and spreading rapidly (not an isolated case here and there with very minimal and focused spread) then we will implement our SIP(ing)stages.
Deciding to completely SIP means a huge lifestyle change. We won’t go anywhere, and won’t get the mail either at some point. So I suppose there will be different levels for us.
1) Hubby won’t travel on airplanes…will tell work he will telecommute from the farm
2) Will top off supplies, use lots of anti-bacterial on hands while doing so, may even use gloves and masks to finish supplying- hard to tell- don’t want to tip our hand and have everyone pay attention to what we are buying because I look like Michael Jackson (a pale white woman!)
3) Send for the kids- That means daughter having to give up her job and her boyfriend his job as well- if he will do it. He may just laugh and tell her to go on ahead. Son in military may be where he can’t leave (National Guard- 2 week duty).
4) Pre-Pay 4 months of mortgage, electricity, water, phone. (and crossing our fingers that the utilities will stay on that long). Switch to online banking and online bill pay for the other bills.
5) Last warning to all family members to come now…or not be allowed in without a long quarantine period that won’t be comfortable.
6)Use mask, gloves, and other anti-contamination procedures to get the mail- open it outside, decide what to do, then burn it.
7) Eventually, just dump mail without opening it at all using full contaiment procedures. Don’t go anywhere. Don’t let anyone onto the property.
That’s sort of the plan. Plans change of course.
I’m not tipping at all now. Just watching, taking notes and waiting. (I am already food prepped for a year, including our own water supplies, propane, alternate lights, garden, animals for food, etc. Our top-offs will be paper supplies, fresh foods like citrus and animal foods for the domestics.)
Here’s hoping we don’t lose the wiki— that makes me really get antsy when it happens. I start battling demons in my head screaming conspiracy theories at me and I already have too many voices in my head as it is!! ;<0
Thanks TRay75
One of the things that I worry about when it comes to timing is the U.S. Governments reaction. If I was the President I would have emergency orders prepared which would require rationing in the grocery stores, I would limit purchases to $100.00 per day. These orders would go into effect immediately upon the governments announcement that a pandemic had started.
I haven’t heard of plans like this in the U.S. but it could easily be done with executive orders during a state of emergency. I would expect that if rationing isn’t started immediately, the panic buying after such an announcement would lead to rationing.
I know there are a lot of us who are waiting with some last minute shopping, but I think its going to be harder to know when to pull the trigger then I first believed. Mainly because organizations such as the WHO and CDC will do their utmost to ensure all of the Governments are informed before the information is out publicly.
I just hope they don’t beat the Wiki to the punch. I want to thank everyone here, for working so hard to get us information so quickly.
We are planning on going into isolation when the first case hits our shores.
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