Here is the Flu Wiki seroprevalence page.
Alot of seroprevalence studies have been done. Many have not been published, but some have. They all suggest that the current CFR is very high. There is no evidence of widespread mild cases. And people have looked.
Let me summarize where I think we are right now.
On food:
Contact information for the DOE:
For information about the Department of Energy and its programs; for assistance in locating information on the web site; or to contact the Secretary of Energy:
By Mail:U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Ave., SW, Washington, DC 20585
By Phone:1–800-dial-DOE (1–800–342–5363), 1–202–586–5000 (Main Switchboard)
National Phone Directory, By Fax: 202–586–4403, By E-mail: You can send an email to the Secretary of Energy at The.Secretary@hq.doe.gov
Grains are harvested with combines and do not require nearly as much labor. With planning, food from this source is feasible.
Grain is one of the largest agricultural products the US produces…the hitch in their giddyup will be how much diesel fuel the farmers can store to run those combines and other equipment for up to 2 seasons…even if heating oil can be used in a diesel vehicle, it’s a major trade-off: harvesting in the autumn or staying warm in the winter. Combines, tractors and field-trucks are not exactly respected for their fuel economy.
Bronco Bill – at 00:46
Grain is one of the largest agricultural products the US produces…the hitch in their giddyup will be how much diesel fuel the farmers can store to run those combines and other equipment for up to 2 seasons
This is why government planning is critical. With planning, the US military can deliver fuel to farmers. We should be stockpiling diesel and spare parts for the combines, now.
First, I think the government should have all electric utilities develop plans so their workers can SIP at their work locations. You could bring in mobile homes for this purpose. They should have members of their immediate family with them if they choose to. Food, water, PPE, antivirals should be provided. The essential work area must be off limit except for new food deliveries that follow a strict “clean” procedure. Compartmentalize the plants so each section does not need to interact with the others as far as this can be done. Then see to the backup plans for delivery of fuel, coal etc. For those family members that stay at home, deliver food, water provide communication with the workers at the powere plants. Setup web cams and IP voice etc. Make them feel good about working. Pay them extra and bill me. Grin. I want the grid up. Sorry, if this idea has been posted, I don’t have time to catch up on the thread. I will later.
Dude – at 00:49
I agree.
Bronco Bill ‘the hitch in their giddyup’…where do you get this stuff?
By the way, we need to find gs…it’s been a rough day…I need you two to have another one of your discussions.
Dude – at 00:49 --- My bro-in-law works at a nuke plant on the US northeast coast. He’s a project manager and is very active in the anti-terror security of the plant, so he is pretty much everywhere at the site. I’ve asked him if they have any pandemic plans, and so far, from what he’s said, the parent company has told all employees that they will be allowed 3 days off with pay if they catch “bird flu”. Any more than that, and they may as well not show up for work at all…ever. Pardon my ghetto talk here, but as far as I’m concerned, that’s piss-poor planning.
Tom DVM – at 00:52 --- It’s funny…my Dad was from Oklahoma, and Mom was from North Dakota. Both were raised in the self-sufficient “cowboy way”. That, and I used to watch a lot of Hee-Haw on TV!! :-)
You’re right…I miss GS. Er, I mean, anonymous…
Monotreme – at 00:48 --- That would mean that the gov’t would have to subsidize storage tanks either on each farm, or a communal tank large enough to hold the diesel for each farm within a certain grid. The general population of the US already has a very jaded view of farmers being paid “NOT” to grow crops…why would they view any differently the payments for massive storage tanks for fuel when they won’t even be able to buy gasoline for their cars?
Believe me, I completely agree with you…but unfortunately, I don’t make policy. I just pay my taxes and keep my head down!
Bronco Bill. I know this is off topic and I am probably saying something that you already know…but as time goes on here…a little humour is going to be a wonderful thing…at least to me anyway. Thanks!!
Could we have the military man the power plants then? < enza quietly tiptoes into a corner and hopes the fallout is not too bad >
enza. I too think that is the only solution…except they are going to lose more persons then the general public due to illness and they have families too and will want to protect them…understandable desertions might be a bit of a problem
Is your plan to develop reasoned letters to send to the politicians, Plant managers, Press, community groups, police fire, hospitals, Rotary, Elks, etc.? Somebody could pick a topic and we could upload the letters as PDF or word format on the FTP location. It helps to have them be snail mail with your real signature. We could put them all in named files (named for who is the target audience) for download and printing. I love going beyond talk to action and I surmise that is the purpose here. We would need an editor or a committee to review first drafts prior to posting. I can envision taking Montreme thoughts on CFR (if you agree with them) and turning that into an informational letter to send to whoever in your community etc.
Bill at 0:54 the things that don’t change…I was asked to consult at a Nuke Plant in New England. They needed to computerize their records of when things were fixed….imagine a time when they did not know that and were operating…I saw it with my own eyes.
To Northstar, anon_22, Monotreme; I stand corrected and withdraw my view that CFR was necessasarily inaccurate at present levels. I must not have read enough threads on that issue.
Beyond that, I still think that the JIT system, a globalized economy (and in the US that specifically means an out-sourced, overseas manufacturing base) and undefined risk of a severe pandemic all conspire to block or delay the best efforts of industry and government to prepare.
Since this is not a tightly defined problem, like Y2K was, it becomes a political problem and all politics is local. Politics invites more than its share of the self-centered and power hungry, but perhaps there is less of that at the local level than at the federal or international levels. Yes, the Secretary of the DOE can jump start much more than my local utility - on a federal level, but it is much more likely the Secretary is beholden (read compromised) by political, Machiavellian considerations unless the risk is measurable in SOME sense.
Y2K was an undefined, poorly understood, unpredictable risk. But it had the benefit of one solid piece of data; it would commence on January 1, 2000. It seems panflu lacks a similar anchor point.
As a result, maybe we should expand on the idea of SaddleTramp – at 09:21, one-on-one contact with utility customer service reps, utility council members and the like to produce a ground swell. My employer, a communications provider in many states, is not doing anything. But if enough customers called Customer Care and asked for an answer, it would appear on daily activity reports and management would have to address this question from customers. If it was sustained, the Customer Care VP would turn to the technical teams and general management for a unified response to these calls.
Now perhaps management would answer ‘we are working 24/7 on this to provide continuous service to you’ when they are not at all, but then employees could ask HR what is being done for the employees…and it may force the issue to be taken seriously.
A grass-roots effort is very difficult to start and move to the tipping point, but it is more likely to be effective than addressing concerns to federal or international officials that are already clued-in and have chosen other priorities.
Dude – at 01:12 This might be the answer. Snail mail with print-outs of key articles by “highly reputable” sources describing the risk. Perhaps the articles should be selected based on the recipient; power company, ISP, water company, grocery chain… Underlining one or two sentences may be even more effective.
Dude – at 01:12 --- It’s really scary. And amazing how “modern technology” (ahem…from 1978) keeps the nuke plants running…
Bronco Bill and Dude. I found the NRC info to be a truly bad sign. They haven’t even finished the paper stage of planning.
In any given area, do nuke plants only provide part of the electricity, or are some communities totally dependent on them?
Urdar-Norway – at 19:20 Hi! Nice to meet a neighbour (: Is the world in some kind of collective denial about the threat. If we continue like this, we are going to bump the big flu without any shielding.
anon_22 – at 21:28 You said: “ --- However, much of the biology of flu virus evolution is still unknown. There is no science that says the CFR has to decrease if it becomes a pandemic strain. The best explanation that I came across was from Malik Peiris of Hong Kong who said that if a pandemic strain arises as a result of reassortment with a human strain, then there may be a certain degree of immunity, not enough to prevent infection, but maybe enough to cause milder disease and therefore a lower CFR. There is also no science that the CFR has to stay high. We can only say that the pandemics that we do know about in the 20th century did not have such high CFR’s as what we are seeing now. But we don’t know what factors present in previous pandemics might be present in the next one, so it really is all guesswork.”
What about recombination? If the H5N1 is evolivng via recombination, what would then be your immunity answer? (just a little sci-fi, ah?)
To save you having to ‘think of everything’ by yourselves, have you looked at plans etc from other countries? As these plans were recently praised internationally, here is a link (http://tinyurl.com/onplm) to the NZ Civil Defence and Emergency Management Guide to the National Plan (link for that on the same page). It covers off emergency services, utilities, food, communication, welfare etc etc.
If your ‘locals’ don’t give you a comfort level that they are ready then perhaps these links could be offered to them also. There are many such links on the main fluwiki site for other countries.
Also, see what Power Grid Guy had to say about power in the upstate New York area on the thread “Anyone Else from New York.”
He said they were planning assuming something like 40 to 50% absenteeism and having employees stay at the work site — just wan’t sure how well that was going to work, how to manage many different variables there. Would be interesting to have his perspective here.
A lot of people’s solutions/suggestions seem to involve strong leadership, top-down control, and so on. In some countries this works — they have a strong centralized government. But in the US? We have a federated system with a states acting independently from each other. The federal goverment has done its part in warning states “You’re on your own” but for planning purposes, I don’t see how that responsibility can be delegated — the enormity of the problem, combined with how interconnected out economy is — even at just the national level — seems to require more central planning and authority than the federal government currently has.
Wow, just found this thread now. As a member of a farm family, I’d like to throw in a few thoughts about the food aspect of this thread. First, having diesel put aside for the combines is a great idea, but as others have pointed out, it wouldn’t likely work out too well. If you are planning on a corn harvest, you’d also need propane or electricity in many parts of the country for drying it down to a decent moisture level for storage. Trust me, wet corn in a bin is not a good thing. If you were sure it was going to be used up rapidly you might get by, but for storage for any length of time isn’t very feasible if it’s wet. You could get by storing cob corn, but very few farmers have corn pickers and bins to hold cob corn anymore, especially in this era of corporate farming.
Seed companies would need extra protection to make sure that spring planting could happen. Nearly all the corn and soybeans grown in the U.S. are hybrids, so farmers couldn’t just save out some seed and expect it to work. Once you have the seed harvested, bagged, and ready to go, you’d have to figure out how to get it from the seed company to the farm. We buy our seed from a local dealer of a major brand, but we go pick it up from a pole shed on his homestead. I can’t imagine he’s going to want farmers wandering in and out all day if there is a highly communicable disease rolling through, or truck deliveries from various sites all over the place coming in.
In addition to all this, we need gas or diesel to plant the crops, fertilizers and herbicides to get them to grow (hybrids are not particularly good producers without them), and more fuel to get the chemicals out into the fields. Also, I don’t know if this is area specific, but we have a large number of farmers out here who don’t do their own spraying or harvesting. The combine that runs through your field might have worked its way up from Texas to Minnesota.
There is some good news, but I have to run right now so I’ll add that later if you like.
Has anyone else (U.S.) emailed the DOE yet?
Average Concerned Mom – at 05:15. I am not sure I agree with you. It does not seem possible for the federal government to tell each state/county/utility company to buy what is needed for the long haul (parts, supplies), food, bedding etc. There is not anywhere near the money to do that kind of purchasing, plus, most of these goods are made overseas and the factories cannot ramp up that kind of production. Imagine you are retired on Social Security and you are making ends meet. Now comes panflu and your neighbor says ‘hey, you need to prep and put aside 4 months of food!’ It is not going to happen because you don’t have the money. Same with many governments in this country. Our global economy and especially overseas manufacturing base, JIT management and custom-order manufacturing is an Achilles heel right now - all these modern techniques are design to minimize warehouse inventory levels so carrying costs are minimized. That means there are very few warehouses and not much in them. All done to maximize profits.
I think that, in the end, there will be those that prepped and survived the flu and those that didn’t and perished due to ‘collateral damage’ - as TomDVM puts it. Never mind that the flu may strike down numbers of both. Our communities face the same dilemnma; we are on our own as Sec’y Leavitt put it. So a grassroots effort may allow some communities and utilities to get what is available for preparation now, before access to supplies runs out.
Well if it isn’t possible for the federal government to do it, I don’t see how any government at a lower level could, either. But if an attempt is to be made, it would require *severe* belt-tightening, rationing and so on BEFOREHAND and I don’t see how this could be done without a central authority organizing it.
I guess I don’t really understand the goal of the disuccion of this thread though. Are people looking for ways for an entire country to last at least 6 months (Bronco Bill mentioned 2 seasons) with no fuel? I.E. Try to stockpile enough fuel and spare parts to keep every vital service up and running (at a bare minimum) for survival for 6 months? Is 6 months the goal? Or the full pandemic, which might be what, 2 years?
Any effort will have to be local and short-term, enough to get past the First Wave. Cities and towns should be investing in large generators like hospitals have in reserve for power outages. Diesel fuel should be stockpiled as well as gasoline and run through city vehicles to keep the stock fresh, but with ample reserves at all times. Portable pumps for drawing water out of deep tube wells should be stockpiled with many spare parts in reserve. Portable pumps would also be needed for drawing fuel out of storage. Grain storage bins should be built and filled and maintained on a grid basis based on population density. The localities could sell part of this grain from time to time to take advantage of market conditions and to make room for more grain at cheaper prices.
Average Concerned Mom – at 07:54. Let me clarify by explaining my view of my family’s situation. I have no doubt that there is not enough food in our country for each family to put away 3 - 6 months in the pantry. I think that amount is needed so I have already built it up over the year. I have bought water barrels and other items that will be important. Many families will be caught short and exposed to much greater risk than just the flu because they will not be prepared. That’s unfortunate, but not my problem. I don’t have the money to help all of them - just a few close friends.
Now apply that to a community. I hope the world is prepared to survive the labor shortages and supply shortages that may occur during a pandemic but I doubt it for many reasons already described. I do not care (in a practical sense) what happens in Laredo, Texas because I don’t live there. I care about my area and I will contact local utilities and local political subdivisions. The Feds have already told us not to bother looking to them for answers or support. That is why my comments on this thread are aimed at local action; I do not believe national or international letter writing campaigns will have a positive effect. At most, they may cause more problems than good.
There is not enough to go around, get what you can and fight for your local conditions only, national leadership have already made the same point to us.
ssol: so maybe I should not have emailed the DOE? Could you elaborate on the problems you feel it might cause?
If we all become local ‘activists’ we will help not only ourselves but our community as well. As it stands now, I see many weak links in local planning efforts, if these efforts exist at all. Survival will improve if your local city, town or village has geared up sufficiently to help meet the challenges of a pandemic. Leavitt has told us in who’s court the ball will lie. It is up to each of us to help build local awareness. Have any of you met face to face with your local leaders? I have visited my town supervisor several times and brought written information to leave with him. In the beginning when I asked about local plans, he referred me to the State plan which he had not read. I also left him this sites address. In the discussions we have had since then he has had many questions and has grown in awareness. Now he is looking into local power, water, etc. Sometimes it only takes one small step to open a dialog. We, at the wiki are a powerful resource to make this happen.
Watching in Texas, I’m glad you emailed the DOE. I hope others do as well. If the DOE doesn’t make it very clear to the lower strata of the energy puhbahs that it is important to prepare for a severe pandemic, than it is very unlikely that they will do so. We also need a grass-roots campaign to try to get local powerplant operators prepared. This is a complex problem and just one approach will not work.
As regards to storing diesel and spare parts, I wasn’t suggesting that each farmer would do this. Instead, I was suggesting that the Feds create Strategic Depots for each Farm Region. Only they have the resources to make this happen. During a severe pandemic, farmers would communicate with the Feds and indicate what they needed. This would then be allocated to them on a rational basis, ie, the goal would be to get the maximum food from the available stores of fuel. That means some small farms might not get fuel. This is one reason why local prepping is also important. One small town with a few small scale farms would probably not be a high priority during a severe pandemic. But there is no reason why the members of that town couldn’t decide to store their own fuel and spare parts.
As regards who the Feds are that will actually be in charge during a severe pandemic. There is only one realistic answer: The Military. Expecting the crazy patchwork of civilian agencies to get their act together and organize something effective is a pipe dream, IMO. Only the military has the logistical experience to deliver goods with discipline. We need to give them a heads up on the important role they will play, now.
More on this idea later.
Watching in Texas – at 09:28. I think two problems may happen if we focus on federal or international governments and groups.
1. The authorities may likely respond in a postive manner, refer us to others, point to committees etc. This may create the appearance of progress when it is actually a boondoggle. Leavitt has told us in black and white to forget about, they will not be responsible or available to help us. The Feds have issued bland, vanilla warnings for two reasons; they are designed to inform but not alarm us (they are not really intended to push us to considerable action). The second reason is so that they have statements they can point to after TSHTF and say ‘well, we told you!’. Getting a nation ready for the potential infrastructure impact is completely impossible; there simply isn’t enough to go around and not enough time.
2. The effort to correspond with the feds takes time away from us that could be spent speaking and writing with local officials as Science Teacher has shown. This is were progress can be made. Maybe the nation isn’t prepared, but my town or county will be. That is were the effort should be placed, in my opinion. Remember, most local elections can be swayed very easily by activists. Local pols know this, that is why they keep their ear to the ground much more than state or federal pols.
farmgirl 7:02. Please, jump in with all guns firing!!
I have given this a great deal of thought and I believe that the difference between total societal breakdown and not, is going to be in the hands the North American farmers.
For too many years, North American farmers have continued their calling, passion and addiction without much support or appreciation from the general public…as I have said many times, WOULD YOU LIKE SOME CATSUP WITH THAT COMPUTER.
I believe there is a lot we can do without if we have to…but the two things we have to have in a pandemic is medications to treat our children and food to give to our children…if not then the calmest and most reasonable person you have ever met will turn into a viscous criminal…me included.
So lets hear your opinions…they are certainly important to me and will be informative to those who do understand farming or farmers.
ssol – at 10:06
I don’t agree. Without central planning, now, we are doomed. There is no way local communities will be able to survive in a severe pandemic without help from the Feds (ulitimately, the military).
We will watch what they do. We have already determined that the Secretary of the DOE is not doing his job, he is really just created some glossy brocheres and pretending to prepare. We will know if they start to get really serious.
Local pressure is also important, but it’s not either/or. A mulipronged approach got a hide-bound secretive federal organization, the CDC, to release sequences they had held onto for many years. Let’s try the same approach to get power plants to prepare.
Monotreme – at 10:17 “Without central planning, now, we are doomed.”
How so? Let’s define terms; the thread is about Community preps so we can safely exclude any effort by the Feds to develop vaccines or build Tamiflu inventory. So, if we are left with preps for infrastructure failure, and the Feds have told us ‘don’t call me’, what role will central planning play? Before planning begins you would have to compel the Feds to reconsider their position, right?
I think they know they cannot play a meaningful role because their levers are inadequate. They are also most likely very gun-shy after Katrina - in the sense of very bad political fallout they endured. So they default to a political defensive posture. What else can they do? Their only impact on infrastructure will likely be martial law or something similar if it is a severe pandemic. They surely won’t share those plans with us.
ssol and Monotreme - I think I’ve done what you both have said. I have contacted my local utility providers to see what plans exist and where this area gets the energy for the plants - in my case most of it is coal and we have a local source for the coal. I have emailed the DOE to ask them what plans they have in place to keep the grid up on a national level. I have emailed my county to ask about what plans are in place. I have emailed my city about the same. I have also made phone calls to local officials. I have expressed my concern to local doctors and pharmacists. I have prepared on a personal level. I have attempted to convert family and friends. I applaud those who have had more success than I have with regards to getting anyone (public officials, friends, doctors, etc.) to pay attention to them. It may well be that those of you with a medical or a scientific background (teachers included)will have more success than I have had.
I will add this: a short email to the DOE took up very little time. I do believe that a couple of emails will be ignored and quite frankly, I don’t expect a reply. I do wonder, however, if the response from the DOE would be different if they were deluged by hundreds of emails.
I agree with Monotreme. It does not have to be an either/or approach. Federal policies do impact local governments. We need to work on getting changes brought about at the federal level, now. I have sent my letter to the DOE as well as other federal departments and will keep on doing so. Leavitt may tell us that our communities will be on our own, but in truth we will all suffer greatly if certain federal policy does not change. Tom, I so agree with your comments on farmers. They are one of the backbones of society and helping them should be a priority. Monotreme’s idea of having the Feds provide “stategic depots at each farm region” is an excellent one. We can do this; we can foster policy change. Keep the letters coming!
From time to time I have read on the forum about how powerful the voice of FluWiki really is - IMHO, this might be a good time to prove that with government on a federal and on a local level, and certainly not just in the United States.
Science Teacher is right - keep those letters (and emails) coming.
WIT
From what I understand of our electrical grid — there is nothing “local” about it. A problem in one small area can have an effect many states away.
I agree that numerous back-up preps at all levels is the best way. Failsafe upon failsafe upon failsafe. But honest communication NOW, from the top, is the key to begining this preparation. They don’t have to say it is for “bird flu” — they can say it is in case of terrorist attack on the electrical grid.
I’m speaking from a paranoid mom viewpoint here, but- I live in a very rural place where by and large everybody knows everybody. Plus its a very gun friendly place. I’m concerned that if I go to the local government (assuming I could find it) and start raising a ruckus about flu prep, folks would remeber it when TSHTF and possibly think- Those folks have been planning for this, lets go get their stuff.
Any thoughts on this? Possibly I’m to paranoid, but….
I’m also thinking that our rural community is already very poor-Im not sure our community has the resourses to do anything even if they wanted to. Perhaps I could write letters at the State Level?
Dude, Monotreme:
IMHO, it would be not be inpossible to keep the grid up.
First, providing food and housing on site for workers AND their families is essential. I know I would not be willing to stay on site knowing DW and my kids are fighting for their lives amidst anarchy. I would leave. Sorry. But my family comes first. I think vast majority of power system workers would be the same about it.
I don’t see where this would be all that difficult. Breakdown. When I worked in a 2300MW nuclear plant, I think there were about 10 operators on shift. 2 or 3 shifts for equals 20 or 30 trailers. I’ll leave the math on MRE’s and water for someone else.
Cross training operators and maintenance people is also essential. This is already being done for economic reasons, but needs to be stepped up. It would not be sensible to have to double the number of workers at a plant because of limited skill sets.
The Eastern Interconnection peak, (everything east of the Rocky Mountains) peak load is around 550,000MW (mmega watts). That’s the hottest day of the year. With industry shut down we’re looking at say 200,000MW. What I’m getting at is about 5,000 trailers and provisions staged at the power plants and control centers would give me a feeling of confidence. (BTW - I think I saw at least 5,000 trailers headed toward thew Gulf coast on trains after Katrina)
Next, coal has to be stock piled like it used to be before the JIT era. Stock piles have depleted stock piles from 6 months to 10 days. example: this spring a coal plant (coal is one of the most economical fuels) in Louisiana was having to run at reduced capacity because a rail line in Montana washed out.
Regarding natural gas fired plants, we are relying on the gas infrastructure remaining intact to deliver. It is not possible to stock pile natural gas on site in large quantity. (this is why I recently installed a 1,000 gallon tank behind my house)
Nuclear. Nuke plants will shut down if grid is deemed unstable. The reason is nuclear plants themselves require alot of power (a 1000MW plant requires 50MW to operate, or about 3MW to stayed safely shut down) Nuclear plants have redundant diesel generators for this, but the NRC insists on off site power being available as well. I don’t know if the NRC would waive any requirements in event Panflu threatened civilization.
Hydro. best power source. however, no rain = no hydro.
Another concern is parts. It is typical to see a 1,000MW plant trip somewhere in the Eastern interconnection at least daily. If a plant requires parts or support from outside it’s perimeter fence, that could be a problem. Maybe not a show stopper, but a problem.
SIP for utilities is possible, folks. When I bring it up to TPTB, they say they are looking into it, along with some mumbo jumbo about HR having to review blah blah blah.
The one thing that might wake up the utility sector PTB is if they received hundreds of emails or letters expressing your concerns. I think it would be best if they received them all on the same day or at least same week. The letter should at some point refer to fluwikie links to the scariest threads, this being one them.
Do you think we could organize such an effort? I do. Please comment.
JJF-I agree that they COULD keep the grid up. During WWII the Government threw up the Cities of Oak Ridge, Los Alamos, and one other(Happy Valley?) practically overnight AND most of those people were not allowed to leave-then it was Security, but why not quarentine? Not to mention what they built IN those cities. Ive known about it all my life and it still boggles my mind. So I have no doubt it COULD be done. But will they….
I will be glad to join a letter writing campain. I have two thoughts: One Paper mail might be more effective-because its a physical tangible thing-all those letters have to be opened and dealt with in someway. On the other hand- Two if everyone sent an e-mail ON THE SAME DAY, that would also send a strong message.
Wind energy?
I’ve seen numerous comments throughout this wiki about people contacting their local utility regarding flu.
What many people are not aware of is that power supplied at your meter does not exactly come from your local power plant. In the continental US power plants are connected to the grid, called an interconnection. It is generally either the eastern or western interconnection, with the exception of texas (they have their own interconnection). When a disturbance occurs, such as a major power plant tripping off line, it is felt throughout that interconnection.
My point is your local utility probably won’t be able to operate on it’s own. It’s all utilities stay up or none. An example of this is August 14, 2003 blackout. A relatively minor shortage of power in Cleveland, OH turned into a “black hole” power shortage drawing on the grid out of Detroit, through Canada, into and across New York State all the way to NYC and a small portion of northern NJ.
Again, if the utility industry were to arrange for SIP, there would be a reasonably good chance (90% or better, IMO) of maintaining power during a severe out break.
I think many utilities are patterning their pandemic plan after the NERC pandemic reference document (available on NERC web site). This document refers to things like sending home sick employees, and screening employess to ensure they haven’t been exposed. Most here at fluwikie would balk at that. I think most people here would say an SIP quarantine of power facilities is the only sensible measure.
I think utlity PTB are very much like me, ie; I know I have stopped talking about flu after all the ridicule I received.
The one thing that might sway these guys into at least looking at this as hard as we do is the previously mentioned letter writing bombardment. Other ideas?
One other thing. I spent 10% of 1 years salary on preparing my family. I doubt that a utlity expense of preparing for this would even be 1% of it’s income for a year.
NERC pandemic reference document:
ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/cip/Influenza%20Pandemic%20Reference%20Guide.doc
You might want to read and decide if it gives you a warm fuzzy feeling. Then a again you may not…
Re NERC plan- IF all - or majority of utilities were following- it would give me a warm fuzzy feeling. But the fact that it acknowledges pandemic issues and preps in some detail just intensifies my gut warnings.
Green Mom at 12:27 - My situation (and concerns) exactly. Thank you for stating them. So what do I do? Keep quiet. I believe it could be dangerous to speak out. If you’re paranoid…you’re not alone.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 14:54,
The one thing that might sway these guys into at least looking at this as hard as we do is the previously mentioned letter writing bombardment. Other ideas?
Any suggestions as to who we should write letters to? Secretary of Energy, local utilities? Is their a national or federal organization which oversees energy production and distribution?
Here is contact info the US Dept of Energy (I am assuming that those outside the US have similar departments in their countries.) Samuel W. Bodman is the current Secretary of Energy:
By Mail: U.S. Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585
By E-mail: You can send an email to the Secretary of Energy at The.Secretary@hq.doe.gov
I’ve been lurking but am now responding to the call for participation.
To my knowledge every electric utility company (aka ESCO) in NY state is working diligently to update their business continuity plans to adapt for the potential pandemic. Many, including my organization, are preparing to SIP with a core of critical staff (let’s say 40–50) who will be needed to keep the grid up and running.
Bronco Bill at 01:01-
And who’s gonna guard those fuel storage tanks when, as you say, a lot of people won’t have gasoline for their own vehicles and will be looking…?
I’ve been googling and notice that many states have utilities associations. Dropping them a letter would probably be helpful as well. Here are some examples:
Minnesota Utilities Association
New Jersey Utilities Association
Wisconsin Utilities Association
Just google your state plus “utilities association”.
Power Grid Guy, that is good news. Let’s hope you can get the things you need to keep operating. Parts- coal, food water etc.
Maybe the efforts everyone top to bottom are having an effect on the prepping.
Just to give you some added assurance, the NYS PSC and Dept of Health hosted a planning session back in June for all the electric and telecomm untilities in the state. It was well attended and the participants made it abundantly clear that their companies are taking this just as seriously as they do storm preparations. many of the companies inidcated that have already ordered PPE for their employees and they busyt working with their supply chain to ensure that needed parts and supplies will be available. Not to say that we have everything covered, but, plans are proceeding.
Thanks Power Grid Guy, I knew you’d show up. I am glad I live in your grid area.
Power Grid Guy, JJF and anyone else…
I find myself wondering how much of the planning at the utilities level depends on accurate guesses as to the worst case scenario with regards to Case Fatality Rate?
If utilities are making decent plans for a “severe” pandemic — but by severe they are thinking “1918-case extreme i.e. 2% CFR” that means one thing. People will be sick, then they will recover in a few weeks, some will die.
Are utilities, in their scenarios, being told that 2% CFR is by no means the worst case scenario? That the CFR for H5N1 is more like 50 to 75% and there’s no reason it HAS to come down? How would that change plans if so?
Don’t know if you can specifically answer this, but it seems from this thread that many cities and towns at least have been told .44% CFR expected, mAAAAAYbe it would be as bad as 2% but that’s a long shot.
Average Concerned Mom – at 17:16
We have not made any particular assumption about the CFR, however, we have assumed absenteeism as high as 50% including those who are sick, those staying home tending to children or sick family, and those who are just too scared to leave their houses.
We have identified business functions that could be suspended during such a crisis and how we can reassign staff to cover for the absences in the critical areas we need to keep the grid operating.
We have also begun asking staff to volunteer to be sequested for up to three weeks. Realizing that we will need to rotate other staff in to cover a possible 10–12 week wave.
Power Grid Guy – at 16:52
Sounds good, I wish my employer was doing this too.
Among those key 40–50 employees, are they for/against this, asking their employers about their families? Resistant?
If the first wave of a pandemic is severe and infrastructure collapses, resulting in many deaths, I wonder whether rounds two and three will move as quickly or remain as likely to occur everywhere. I’m not theorizing exactly (the Spanish Flu managed to infiltrate far-flung communities in 1918), but just wondering aloud. I’m also thinking that a world many fewer birds is a world with many more bugs, and this fact may affect our ability to raise crops in our little survival gardens. Challenges, I fear, will be compounded in ways we cannot fully foresee.
Well, I’m not sure if this belongs on this thread, but it deals with a GLOBAL community prep…
As DH travels the globe frequently, I am always interested in the airlines’ response to the AI situation. I was reading the CDC’s guidelines for dealing with ill passengers, etc. http://tinyurl.com/o9tgt
Some of the info was perplexing (imagine that!). Like “Cover mouths and noses with a tissue or hands when coughing or sneezing.” I thought we were supposed to use inside of our elbows to prevent hand contamination. I understand the cover part.
It also mentions putting a mask on a sick passenger. Do the airlines even carry masks? I sure would like to know that. Does anyone here know that? Trying to distance a sick passenger is also mentioned. It’s gonna be tough to put 3 - 6 feet between a sick passenger and others on a full plane. It’s been a while since the airlines flew with many empty seats.
It also recommends using alcohol based gels if no handwashing is available. We know THAT is gone now, since the last safety blitz. So, the sick person has to walk to the lavatory and use the facilities.
A comment is also made that “CDC does not recommend the routine use of personal protective equipment (PPE), such as respirators, gloves, or surgical masks, for protection against avian influenza exposure, except in health care-related situations. However, gloves are recommended when cleaning potentially contaminated surfaces.”
From what I read recently, the horizontal surfaces of most airplanes are some of the dirtiest in existance. Methinks the airlines might rethink the cleaning techniques utilized. Gloves don’t seem like such a bad idea to me for most of the work the flight attendants do. Even the guy at Subway’s (sandwich shop) wears gloves to make your sandwich. Seems gloves while serving food and picking up trash might be a wise idea.
What a challenge any viral illness presents to the aviation industry. Seems the poor flight attendants have to learn to deal with terrorists, drunken passengers AND lethal pathogens.
Closed and continued here.