Forum: Pandemic Flu Awareness Week

I will soon be conducting educational seminars for the Red Cross in our county on pandemic preparedness and will be referring attendees to our fluwikie.com site. So I tried to visit this site as if I were a “newcomer”. I saw the notice for the Pandemic Flu Awareness Week, but realized that it was for 2005…making me realize that perhaps we should consider updating that page and changing the date to October of 2006. Are there currently any plans to make the second week of October of 2006 another official “Pandemic Flu Awareness Week”, and if not, how about if we dust off last year’s plans and recyle them? Sometimes I think that all of us who visit fluwiki on a regular basis forget what it’s like to see all this great information for the first time.

I would encourage some of you to visit this website with a fresh set of eyes, and list anything here that might need freshening up for all of the NEW people who will soon be visiting the site for the first time. In order to maintain our credibility, it’s important to avoid featuring any stale info pages and providing the new viewers with a sense that this is THE website to continue relying upon as we go forward.

Open to other ideas and suggestions for this year’s awareness campaign. The timing couldn’t be better with the birds eminent southern migration!

Are there currently any plans to make the second week of October of 2006 another official “Pandemic Flu Awareness Week”?

No, but there’s no reason why we can’t. What we did is contact blogs and ask them to post something about flu during that week. After Labor Day this weekend (when Americans start paying attention), we can update it and run it again.

Hi, Ranch girl, Quite a few of us have been working on the Red Ribbon Pandemic Awareness campaign. There are 2 threads on it.

I couldn’t find more information on anything planned for a Pandemic Awareness week with events like last year. Oue Homeland Security Dept. has designated the month os Septemer as National Preparedness month so we will be tying into that theme. You might refer interested people to our thread. The more people we can get raise pandemic awareness and preparation, the better for all of us. please let me know what you think of our ideas. The first thread starts here: Red Ribbon Pandemic Flu Awareness Campaign

I think the last campaign waa very effective in raising awareness, but people did not know what they should do to prepare.

How about this time we suggest prepping for 6–8 weeks? Also, point out the problem of JIT and the potential for disruption of the Grid, Water, etc.

oops, my link didn’t work. Just check the current threads

Good ideas, Monotreme It would be a great way to furthur the discussion of what really needs to be known and the truth about how long people need to increase their supplies to last.

Can anyone fix my link mistake? (Honestly, I thought I followed the ‘directions” to do it.)

oops, that bump was me. ST

I have been following (lurking lately) the thread on the Red Ribbon campaign and will be using that. Can someone direct me to an updated “press release” that we can use to forward to any media, associations, etc.? Is there an official Fluwiki press release??? (Since using some government’s release may not be legally permitted).

I agree with Monotreme about suggesting a 6–8 week prep. Whenever I hear someone say to prep for a week or two I cringe. And then again, I hesitate to tell my audience that I have personally prepped for 6 months for fear that they’ll be coming to find me when TSHTF!

One of my main concerns when referring people to this website is that the pages are all current. Should we take the 2005 Campaign page down until we can replace it with a more current one?

Should we take the 2005 Campaign page down until we can replace it with a more current one?

No, the current page represents something else (what was done in 2005, if anyone wants to read it - it was a Flu Wiki sponsored idea, and it happened that Bush presented the US plan totally coincidentally at the same time). A new page for 2006 can be created, but the old one would stay. Someone just has to make the new page. Don’t forget this is a DIY site. ;-)

No, there’s no official Flu Wiki press release. Press release for what?

Don’t forget that an idea like PFAW can be done in parallel with red ribbon., For example, what a great time to introduce the red ribbon campaign!

Personally, I don’t agree about 6–8 weeks, even if that’s a great goal (and it is); PFAW is is an introduction. That means, for example, that the message should be the same on pandemicflu.gov as the PFAW. So for new eyes, reading about preps here should parallel what’s being said on the government sites. The longer prepping is after people get used to the concept, including that the government site doesn’t tell you everything you need to know, which you’re a long way from when you’re new. And as you know, there is no consencus.

I understand. The press release I referred to was simply that September is Pandemic Awareness Month. (Wouldn’t count on our local newspapers picking that up on the general news threads.) Just checked the recommended time to prep on the govt site - it says two weeks. Perhaps I should state that recommendation, and then encourage those who can prep for 3–4 weeks to do so. It took me about 2 months of reading to really “get it”, and it then took me another 2 months to stockpile enough for 3 months SIP. I guess I fear that if this thing were to actually hit this winter, I would hate for people to say that we only told them to prep for two weeks…and therefore left them with a false sense of security. I do realize, however, the importance of not frightening them into a frenzy. I continue to share the message, “Don’t be scared…be prepared”.

Ranchgirl … my Sis-in-Law and I are both working with our perspective counties in Community Awareness … we call it ‘CAP’ - Community-Awareness-Preparation. We have a brochure that we will be submitting for their review, and in the meantime will be distributing it on our own. If you are interested, and want to see you to possibly use to hand out at your meeting, let me know! -k

sorry … ‘perspective’ used out of context! I need to go to sleep! -k

Ranchgirl, here is the link for Sept. National Preparedness month, Homeland Security

Follow links to map of activites in each state.

ST, just cut and paste the whole link.

Links in PmWiki are made by doing this:

[[the actual url|name of link]]

DemFromCT – at 22:50,

Last year not many people were aware of bird flu or panflu, but I don’t think that’s true now. But people don’t think about it because they don’t know what to do about it. Most people here would say 6–8 weeks is pretty conservative. It is justifiable because that’s the average length of a local outbreak of flu. I have never understood how someone can give a talk, tell people that they should be prepared to SIP for the length of an outbreak, tell them that’s likely to be at least 6 weeks, and then tell them to just get enought food and water for 3 days (or even 2 weeks). It’s just not logical.

As regards the government sites. Let’s face it, they follow our lead. If we wait till they figure it out, we’re doomed. ;-)

If we make a convincing case maybe we’ll influence their websites, again.

sorry, Dem (embarassed,hangs her head, turning pink)

Ranchgirl here is the link to National Preparedness month: http://www.ready.gov/america/npm/index.htm

Monotreme: “ have never understood how someone can give a talk, tell people that they should be prepared to SIP for the length of an outbreak, tell them that’s likely to be at least 6 weeks, and then tell them to just get enought food and water for 3 days (or even 2 weeks). It’s just not logical.”

I would add that I have never understood the audience that listens, believes and fails to understand that there is no logic involved in what they are being told.You have done a good job in informing all of the many visitors to this site. They will inform others; and so it grows.

I have never had any trouble with 2/4/6/8 weeks or more of food but to tell people they also need even 2 weeks of water IMPLIES a whole lot of other things that few consider. You limit and control pandemics primarily by isolation so having food is good - besides who wants to be going to the grocery store or 7–11 if PBF is raging? But no water for 2 weeks?

Then you have the “2% worst case” death rate issue but I suppose you need to start somewhere.

Anyway Ranchgirl, take a look at my BF Report posted at http://www.arielco.us/page3.html It might give you some ideas. Many people have told me it is one of the better comprehensive summaries around.

BTW: the Red Cross’ recommendations of using chlorine for emergency disinfection of water will NOT kill cryptosporidium which is almost guaranteed to be in whatever surface water you think you are disinfecting. If you get BF you may or may not die depending on your age and health but if you get BF and crypto you will surely die, regardless of your age and health.

Monotreme – at 22:21

“How about this time we suggest prepping for 6–8 weeks?”

I think that is more realistic-no one I saw interviewed post-Katrina complained they had prepped ‘too’ much. If towns could only guarantee one utilty to be up during a pandemic, I’d push for water.

I’m not telling you all anything you don’t already know. I just wanted to point something out as a reminder/suggestion….

RE the people who have not been paying attention to this yet—if we start right off the bat telling them they need to prepare for no electricity/no water/food shortages because of “the flu”, they are going to think we are nutjob survivalists. They won’t know why we are suggestion such a ridiculous thing.

We need to give the Reader’s Digest version of how the collective minds on here have arrived at the possibilities/likehihoods in the hypothetical case of a pandemic.

We need to explain the infection rate and mortality numbers and compare them to regular flu. Then we need to explain about quarantines. Then we need to remind them about schools closing and parents staying home. Then we need to explain how there is already a shortage of experienced truck drivers on a good day, so if 50% of them are either sick or not coming in, retail stores are going to look different. Point out about the fragility of JIT deliveries and water treatment plants and grocery store inventory levels. We should tell them about the waves in 1918 as well. If all the facts are laid out and then a simple discussion of what level of supplies would make them feel more comfortable in such a situation — some people might feel safe with the minimal amount suggested by the government, others with a large family in an isolated area might need 6–8 weeks of supplies in order to feel safe — people will not think we are nutjobs…maybe.

anonymous – at 05:49,

I have personnally convinced people to prep for 6–8 weeks, so I know it’s possible. People need to hear the same information from different sources to be convinced. If they see 6–8 weeks in the media, mainstream or a blogsite they trust, and a neighbor also tells them they are prepping, they are much more likely to take the message seriously. It’s a synergistic effect, not merely addititive.

I agree about explaining why. This should be as concise as possible and pull no punches. Something like this:

The Bad News

• A flu pandemic will definitely occur. We are not sure when, but there is reason to be concerned that it may be soon. The virus has spread human to human to human in Indonesia, recently.
• A flu pandemic may kill a large percentage of the people it infects. We don’t know what the death rate will be of a pandemic strain, but the death rate from H5N1 in people is currently over 50%. We do not understand enough about flu viruses to know if this rate will drop to a much lower figure if it becomes a pandemic strain.
• A moderate or severe flu pandemic will cause widespread societal disruptions. Even a flu virus with a low kill rate will make many people very sick at the same time. Because we use Just-in-time inventory systems, a flu pandemic today will be much more disruptive than a flu pandemic in the past. Globalization means that we are much more interdependent than in the past. Cascading failures of critical services like, energy, water and food distribution may occur.

The Good News

If we prepare ourselves and our families we can avoid infection, even during a severe pandemic. We need to be able to Shelter-In-Place (SIP). Since a local outbreak typically lasts for 6–8 weeks, it makes sense for every family to be prepared to stay in their home for this period of time. This means stocking up on:

• Food
• Water
• Prescription medicine
• Anything else you need to be comfortable (toiletries, books, games, etc.)

Monotreme – at 08:49 This is an example of a good piece of info that we could give to people without alarmning them too much. And not looking like we are over the edge as my DW thinks I am.

regarding the death rate from pandemic flu:

I just looked into some of New York States pandemic preparation plans on their state website and am stunned to see no mention (or very evry little mention) of pandemic flu as a deadly disease.

The emphasis seems to be on pandemic flu as a severe illness; but that the main hazard is just that a lot of people will be ill all at once, not that there may also be many deaths. Is that fact just being glossed over?

It makes me wonder about what model the planners are working under — the old .44% CFR versus the fact that at the moment with H5N1 the CFR is much much higher.

A higher CFR makes the difference between a major heath caare problem versus a major societal structure problem. With a very bad illness, people will be sick, they will have to stay at home until they get better and their families get better; but then they can come back to work. With a larger CFR, people will NOT want to go anywhere until it is all over.

I know I’m not saying anything anyone here doesn’t know. But with all the talk about what people are being told and not told about the potential implications of a pandemic, I wonder if some of the seeming misinformation isn’t just, well, incompetence? Maybe people haven’t yet gotten the memo that this pandemic MIGHT be worse than .44%? (I recall the Sarge being very frustrated about where that .44% was coming from in dealing with groups he was working with.)

Hi! I mentioned above, that via our ‘CAP’ program, a pamphlet is available, which addressed many of the issues noted above. Food:We adise stocking 8–12 weeks of canned goods, rie, beans and other non-perishavle food items. Water: 1 gallon, preferably 3 gallons, per person per day. And we then go on to advise on Eletcric, heat, sanitation,etc. The need to prepare is also covered (mentioning disruption of ‘essential services’, over crowding in hospitals and possible ‘sheltering in place’. Would that help? -k

I think that the Govt and emergency preparedness people are already scared that the CFR will be 2% and are in flat out denial that it could be much higher. They know that they won’t be able to efficiently deal with 2% and are just hoping 5/10/20% never happens. Kind of like hoping the Iranians will never get the BOMB as we see them developing thier peacefull nuclear program. They see the CFR that BF currently has, see it mutating, see it spreading but believe it will never happen.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:10,

New York City has more infectious disease experts than any other city in the world (Columbia, Cornell, Rockefeller, NYU). There is no excuse for ignorance on the part of public health officials in NYC.

“Plan for a minimum of 2 weeks (and in some scenarios, 6–8 weeks may be needed)…” is a way to get the message across without getting hung up on the exact amount. I agree with anonymous above. You have to look at it as a way to introduce this without looking like a nutjob. Like it or not, a healthy proportion of the population will go to pandemicflu.gov and see what they recommend. Presenting opposing information is not the way to persuade them. It’s got to be more in the way of “we agree, and moreover…”

anonymous – at 05:49 I’m not telling you all anything you don’t already know. I just wanted to point something out as a reminder/suggestion….RE the people who have not been paying attention to this yet—if we start right off the bat telling them they need to prepare for no electricity/no water/food shortages because of “the flu”, they are going to think we are nutjob survivalists. They won’t know why we are suggestion such a ridiculous thing. We need to give the Reader’s Digest version of how the collective minds on here have arrived at the possibilities/likehihoods in the hypothetical case of a pandemic.

I could not disagree with this statement more vehemently. It is condescending and—to use a politically correct term that generally makes me vomit but is entirely applicable here—disempowering.

I am a writer and editor. I have written for every audience conceivable, including news, technical and medical writing, public relations, marketing, and nonprofit/public service sector. There are ways to distill complex information to its essential elements that, together with an appeal to people’s emotions (self preservation and loved ones’ survival, in this case) can be and will be hugely motivating. This is especially true in the wake of Katrina.

I’ve been working with friends and family for the past nine months to help people prep. Those who come to me get the facts, advice on preps, and are referred to other info and logistics resources. While somewhat overwhelmed immediately following an initial “consult,” without exception every person has stewed on the info, returned to me with questions, and begun their preps from an informed position.

Yes, there are and always will be those people who bury their head in the sand and can’t handle the tough messages. But many more people, given time to digest their prospects, will rise to the occasion.

These are not incompatable viewpoints, Edna Mode, as much as they may appear to be initially. Pandemic Flu Awareness Week will attract many eyeballs for a single viewing. OTOH, over time, you get a very different audience, result, approach, etc…

The idea is to get people to read more/learn more- right? What we *really* want is for people to become more informed, make personal preparations- and in turn inform others and work in their communities to make preparations. In this context, I think the # of weeks becomes less important. Not unimportant, but part of a bigger picture where we are trying to cause forward movement to happen. A tipping point comes like a wave. It doesn’t always take a dramatic push to start a wave.

bump… not only more discussion, but some volunteers are needed.

We would need volunteers to:

• rewrite the 2005 page for 2006
• pick a week/pick a date
• contact blogs
• review wiki pages for up-to-date content

We need to be clear on:

• intent
  • make people aware
  • drive interested parties to inspect web sites such as TFAH, Flu Wiki, CIDRAP, pandemicflu.gov, etc
    • Fluwikie.com would be the main vehicle for linking
  • bring up issues of what individuals can do
    • issue of prepping and for how long
• non-profit nature

I will always be uncomfortable with presuming to know how others will behave or what they can and cannot do when given information. For example, to withhold information from people living in poverty “because they cannot afford to prepare” or to others “because they can’t handle it” puts TPTB (and us) in the role as the gatekeepers of knowledge and those living in poverty and the rest of the public as the “masses” to be managed, manipulated, objectified, and it presumes to do the thinking for them. It means TPTB can know and handle information but the rest of us can’t. Those governments that curtail freedom of the press know how to use this concept well.

Further, we are interdependent. The message that goes out affects everyone - electric grid workers and executives, those who stock food pantries, farmers, churches helping those in poverty, Red Cross workers, businesses, rich and poor, academics, medical workers, etc.

Those who administer the food stamp program will be less concerned with increasing the allocation of food stamps to those living in poverty to help them prepare when the message is two weeks as opposed to a 1918 scenario. Those organizations that consider a worst-case scenario can stockpile for those living in poverty but the system only works if there is knowledge. If the food pantry workers latch on to two weeks….well.. Can we really comfortably respond with ‘two weeks’ to a man with his baby in his arms who asks “how much formula will I need?” Two weeks will hardly cover even a mild or moderate pandemic.

Will those who keep our lights on and water flowing worry if two weeks is the message? One could say: well their knowledge will increase in time, but once again we are presuming to think for them. I would prefer to put what we know out front from day one. And we can tell people that we don’t know how bad a pandemic will be but the three waves of six to eight weeks in 1918 over 18+ months shows it can be severe. Let that be what you prepare for as a minimum. Here is Dr. Michael Osterholm’s take using 1918 as a reference point (USA Today, October 8, 2005):

“You plan for the worst-case scenario. If it’s less than that, thank God.”

Blogs of good will and sites like Flu Wiki have a unique role in providing information not found in the government website nor put out by mass media. However, if we are to be co-opted into lining up with those who do not provide a fuller picture, then we are complicit in withholding information from the public, in my view, and have taken on the role that “we have this knowledge” but we can’t really let others know because they …(fill in the blank). We have joined those who think we can handle knowing but others can’t. It smacks of elitism, IMO.

Not listing Osterholm’s testimony to Congress on the government website, when they listed the testimony of those who testified on the same day, has been one of the most shocking things I have come across. I still haven’t gotten over it.

Monotreme’s post at 08:49 shares what we know. I am comfortable with that. I would only add ‘three waves.’

Dem, give me something to do

Well, said, Nightowl.

Michael Osterholm and Peter Sandman are both the risk communicators I listen to. From what I have read, I believe both would agree that it is good to get a little scared, a little nervous. Without that dash of fear, who would prepare?

Government sites are dishing out the low anxiety message. Several states, my own included, are referring to “snow days” as a way of soft pedalling the need for SIP. TPTB are deliberately playing lowball to keep folks calm. They, IMHO, are panicing about panic. Much too paternalistic for me. People can adjust to fear. Other emotions will replace it as they work through their anxiety reaction. I think we should be giving them the chance to begin their reaction. Better now that they learn more and adjust slowly (in their own time reference, not ours) and still have time to prepare.

When people come to this site, they will view opposing viewpoints on many subjects, just as they do in real life. We should not protect them from that and the government should not either, IMO.

Thanks, Science Teacher, and your points are well taken, too. I also will never forget your “loudly quiet” reference to TPTB.

I would like to suggest that a Q & A style format be used for a way to convey information to the public for PFAW. The example below builds off of Monotreme’s input.

Example:

Q Do I need to prepare for a pandemic?

Yes, pandemics are a 100% certainty. It is only a matter of time. The last century had three…..etc. H5N1….etc. With our Just in Time economy, there is likely to be …….

Q What should I do to prepare?

The most severe pandemic was….etc. By preparing for a worst-case scenario, the bases will automatically be covered for a mild to moderate pandemic or other emergencies such as a natural disaster.

Nightowl – at 19:13 Science Teacher – at 20:13

Important discussion that we don’t have often enough. Please understand that I am all for maximal prep. But we also have to understand the difference between ‘what we think’ and ‘what we know’.

• We ‘think’ there might be a severe pandemic based on H5N1.
  • We ‘know’ pandemics are inevitable but we don’t know when the next one is.
  • We don’t ‘know’ that H5N1 is it, but this low probability extraordinarily high risk virus requires prep by officals and citizens alike.
• We ‘think’ 6–8 weeks are minimum and prudent.
  • We ‘know’ official sites recommend less.
  • We know we will not be the only site reviewed by someonbe interested in the topic.

    • It is not condescending or insulting to suggest that we don’t specifically mention 6–8 weeks as the ‘only right answer’. We are not withholding secret knowledge. For example, see TFAH:

• We ‘think’ the CFR might be higher than previous pandemics, which are bad enough.
  • We only ‘know’ what it is now.
• Be clear on where we expect people to visit when we say Flu Wiki. Only a few will visit the Forum for in-depth, all-sides discussion. A visit by a newly interested person is not an in-depth review of topic and most will visit the wiki proper or even just the PFAW page we build.

What about (adapting TFAH for illustrative purposes):

Please look at this objectively (less outrage and more consideration of alternate viewpoints). ;-)

I’m well aware of Sandman and Lanard’s work (people forget his partner!) and there’s nothing wrong with a little fear to stimulate action. In the end, we want people to read and consider; links to sources like CIDRAP and TFAH help, but some of this remains (well-informed) opinion only, including by Osterholm. We know there are other experts who do not feel the same urgency and worry that the pandemic that doesn’t come will kill prep for the next one that does. We think we’re prudent. We don’t know if we’re right and we hope there’ll never be a need.

In fact, reflecting on Sandman and Lanard, this (PFAW) is what we consider a “teachable moment”. What exactly do we want to teach? That goes on the PFAW page. I’d suggest reviewing our old one and this TFAH link for ideas on wording and content.

Other sources and links we’d have on the page include one page brochures that have been made by Flu Wikians but also NDU and others. BTW, NDU says:

days?

food and stockpiling 3 gallons of water for each person in your household, per day. This is a standard approach for any emergency that might limit your ability to leave your home.

Nightowl – at 23:38

Excellent idea! It will take a few go rounds to reach consensus on the answers ;-)

Everyone who wants to do something, start writing your 5–10 most important Q and A’s, collect links to one page FAQs, etc.!

Red Ribbon Campaign fits here as well… PFAW is just a week, Red Ribbon is ongoing.

Human idiocy, the deadliest plague

Book Review:

‘’‘Pandemonium: Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, and Other Biological Plagues of the 21st Century’‘’

“This book is born of outrage. And not the sort that has matured to sorrow or resignation, but the type that wants to box us soundly about the ears and tell us to shape up before it’s too late.

That means that Pandemonium: Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, and Other Biological Plagues of the 21st Century, by Andrew Nikiforuk, is written as a meticulously researched litany of human idiocy.

The book, as Nikiforuk tells us in the introduction, is about “biological bombs,” the “hidden microterrorists on our global doorstep.” These include avian flu, anthrax, mad-cow disease, SARS, the truly horrifying hospital superbug, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and various other viruses, bacteria and prions still unknown but poised to strike.

Nikiforuk catalogues the destruction some of these bugs have wrought on civilization, livestock and wild animal populations. And, like the Cassandras he quotes, he warns that our society is woefully unprepared for when — not if — new pandemics will appear and take a scythe to the world’s people.

It’s bracing, scary stuff. And the problem is, it’s real. Nikiforuk, who is one of Canada’s foremost writers of non-fiction, and who has made a career out of cataloguing uncomfortable truths, has exposed an imminent threat to civilization.

Crowded together in cities as never before, linked by intercontinental flights, plagued by ill-informed public-health policies, bound to thoughtless free-trade laws that encourage the movement of live creatures, humanity is just so much ectoplasm waiting for a fatal disease.

If the next pandemic is mild, Nikiforuk says in his epilogue, it will infect 25 to 30 per cent of the world’s population and kill two million to seven million people. That’s the best-case scenario. If it’s on the scale of the 1918–1919 killer flu, which targeted the young and healthy, the global death toll could reach 300 million, he says, adding: “The death rate among pregnant women, the most vulnerable, could approach a horrific rate of 70 per cent. Such a rare and unique event would change the world.”

Nikiforuk points an accusing finger at the North American invention of factory farms. “Trade has shuttled all sorts of invasive pathogens around the world, and factory farming has helped incubate and concentrate them,” he writes. Today, about 70 per cent of the world’s chickens and nearly half the pigs and cattle are raised in “factories totally separate from the landscape.”

Not only that, but they are raised to grow meat fast, with the costly aid of pharmaceuticals, steroids and antibiotics. And that means “around the world, dumb meat machines raised in climate-controlled buildings are now replacing smart livestock that didn’t need vaccines, antibiotics, or formulated rations to live well. . . .

But where to turn? Nikiforuk places little faith in government or industry. Regulations are unlikely to change the course of disaster, and the world in which science and medicine influence policy is simply a dream, in his books.

The salvation is the individual. In the final part of his book, delightfully named A Canticle for Local Living, Nikiforuk calls on consumers to think globally by buying locally. Forget the exotic pet trade. Forgo imported meats, vegetables and fruit. Buy goods grown and made locally, preferably without chemicals. Instead of thinking of the world as a tiny, two-dimensional monopoly board, start to understand it as a complex series of three-dimensional ecosystems and then approach them with humility.

In other words, take a biological view of the world. The bottom line is not the hallowed financial bottom line, but rather the preservation of our species and its life-support systems.

The best lines in this book make up item 28 in his canticle: “Question the promoters of globalization; they don’t hold degrees in biology or ecology. Ask them where they plan to retire.”

Pandemonium is not a book for the faint of heart. It’s not easy reading. After you finish it, you may never eat chicken again. You’ll probably avoid hospitals for the rest of your life, even as a visitor. “

(excerpt)

http://tinyurl.com/sxzzr

I will help- after my company leaves on Monday, I’ll start.

For instance, Dem at 8:32:

Anticipate shortages in perishable foods, water, and common household emergency supplies. The federal government recommends stockpiling non-perishable food items, water, portable radios, batteries, flashlights, garbage bags, and manual can openers. The US Health And Human Services Department recommends at least two weeks of supplies, and many experts recommend up to 6–8 weeks or more based on previous pandemics and their length. or something to that effect.

I would add prescription medications to this.

DemFromCT – at 08:44- Would it hurt to mention the Dec.2005 US Congressional Budget Office Report’s expecting an influenza pandemic to be…”three to five months” in a given area, with subsequent waves possible one to three months later?

(heavy sigh - too much Sound of Official Silence/Coverups out here in my county, like most everywhere, I guess)

Yay, Pandemic Flu Awareness Week !

DemFromCT,

I am comfortable with the language you propose.

The US Health And Human Services Department recommends at least two weeks of supplies, and many experts recommend up to 6–8 weeks or more based on previous pandemics and their length.

Also, just to see what others are doing, this story from Fort Wayne Indiana is pretty interesting.

Stock up now to be ready if pandemic hits

I like Nightowls Q and A format and agree we should mention the possibility of waves.

Monotreme, thanks. And to illustrate a previous point, follow the link in the story to fighttheflu.org (a local group) and it’ll eventually take you to pandemicflu.gov when you see checklists and prep lists.

crfullmoon – at 10:27

no, it would help!

Lauralou – at 10:14

Yes! TFAH’s FAQ mentions this as well. Of course, see also Flu Wiki’s personal preparedness page.

May I also suggest asking questions? I’ve found more people are engaged by being asked rather than told. As well as posing Q&A’s, ask people to ask themselves a few pertinent questions.

Klatu @ 09:16 - Sounds like a good read.

Monotreme – at 10:28 Good link! Very pro-active town!

DemFromCT,

Just to clarify, although HHS uses a two week number, a DHS rep chastised audience members at my state pandemic flu summit if they did not have at least 6 weeks of preps. There was some discussion of this. My impression is that not everyone in the federal government agrees with the 2 week number. By pushing the “some experts recommmend 6–8 weeks or more” we may be able to strengthen the hand of the more prudent Feds.

We’d like to do that. It’s worth doing. we know that government agencies have a hell of a time with non-consensus material and usually leve it out altogether.

We need to convey the info without being dogmatic, and the more links/logic the better.

Ranchgirl-“I would encourage some of you to visit this website with a fresh set of eyes, and list anything here that might need freshening up for all of the NEW people who will soon be visiting the site for the first time.”

Thanks for startimg this thread. I haven’t had time yet to read all the postings on this thread but I do have one request. Sorry if it’s already been made.

Please, could someone update the wiki Forum shorthand! I would try to do it but I haven’t got all the definitions myself! For instance, what is RO?

My friend has starting reading but not knowing the shorthand is frustrating for her. Also it’s not so obvious where to find the shorthand definitions. Maybe using bold letters under ‘Discussion Forum’ on the left side, or perhaps it could be placed somewhere near the beginning of each thread? Thanks.

Thanks for your excellent points, Dem. They are well taken. I agree, it is important how we word things. I think the “some experts recommend 6–8 weeks or more” approach, we will stay middle ground but push the envelope open a bit at the same time.

Nightowl, I really like your questions approach. When I began my own ribbon campaign , I used questions on the paper I gave out with the ribbons. Questions provide a great ‘hook’ to get people to read more. They awaken one’s natural curiousity to learn more. As Dem suggests, they remove the dogmatic aspects of our writing and provide more ‘teachable moments’ to our readers. : )

I’m for getting any PR to be more alarming than the current official sites. The experts have been “concerned” for nearly 10 years about H5N1, but the low anxiety reports have stalled out. People have heard about bird flu in a mild way, and now there is no more coverage because there is low public interest. Not enough people got fired up about it, like some news items that are persistently covered. The media supplies what sells, we need to create more demand with more drama to the topic. People may think it’s another Sars type story that has faded away. People may think cancer and heart attacks are the main scary diseases. People may thnk a new type flu could “off” their 80yr old mother, -oh well. I think it’s time to revive the message with a little more punch. For one thing, we’re talking about a higher fatality rate in young people, than older people. The threat of losing children will pull people into learning more. Why not mention the option of avoiding a deadly disease by staying inside for 6 weeks, it’s just an option. If this site is ahead of the government sites, what’s wrong with leading the way, if it saves lives.

bump

bump

WOW! My internet line has been down for awhile now due to Ernesto (even tho it turned out to be just a tropical storm, it hit our system pretty badly) so I have missed out on all this great dialog. Lots of great ideas here - thanks to all who have contributed.

As I mentioned, I am doing these seminars for the Red Cross…using the Red Cross’s powerpoint. I took the liberty of “enhancing” their PP to upgrade it to real world. I then emailed it back to the local Red Cross supervisor to review and approve. Since the PP presentation bears their logo, it’s only proper to make sure they are comfortable with the contents. As a compromise, I included a recommended 3–4 week supply. It is my intention to supplement the PP with my personal recommendations. I only hope that there are people in attendance that will ask the relevant questions so I can be in a position to answer them honestly. I will use much of the language suggested above - well thought out folks. My husband teases me because I spend an average of 10 hours a week on this website so I think I have a pretty good handle on the valuable information that the fluwikians have shared…and will passthat along throughout our meetings (currently scheduled for 2x/month for 3 months).

I am hoping that individual attendees will take the message back to the companies where they work (or organizations to which they belong), and recommend that I come do a presentation tailored to their group. Planning to also promote attendance to community business organizations (i.e. bar association, realtors, women in communication, chamber of commerce etc.) My only hesitation is this: Although I am a professional speaker, I have absolutely no medical background and the ONLY knowledge I have of this topic is from what I’ve read on the internet…most of which is from fluwiki. If questioned by anyone about my credentials, I am simply going to tell them I am a “Fluwikian”!

Ranchgirl - Excellent thread you have started. banshee posted a link to an article about what a Red Cross group is doing in Florida (at 12:37 on Sept. 3 news thread). You may have already seen it, but just in case, it is here

Dem at 08:32 - The US Health And Human Services Department recommends at least two weeks of supplies, and many experts recommend up to 6–8 weeks or more based on previous pandemics and their length.

Dem, thank you; the above is an excellent way of sharing what we know as is your suggestion to add links.

Lauralou at 10:14 - you are so right about not forgetting to mention prescription meds. Also medical supplies. This important topic probably deserves its own paragraph and links (Osterholm testimony to congress).

Okay, I’ve re-read the entire thread. There are a lot of good ideas and links in here. I think to start we need to choose a week. The same week this year would be October 2–8, 2006. Any thoughts?

Also, I think we need to change the link on the front page of the wiki to say Summary of PFAW 2005, so that we can keep everything straight. Dem?

Next we need to come up with additional questions for our Q&A format.

From Nightfowl at 23:28 Do I need to prepare for a pandemic? What should I do to prepare?

Other ideas: What is pandemic flu? Can I get a pandemic flu vaccination? Where can I go for more information?

Or perhaps there should be 3 or 4 General (heading) questions with 3 smaller (subset) questions and answers under each one. ie:

heading Q: Do I need to prepare for pandemic flu? subset Q: Can I get a pandemic flu vaccination?

I’ll change the link. Let’s pick the second week in Oct (Oct 9–15) to give people a little more time to organize. By that date:

we need a 2006 page written, including a Q&A and links summarizing the above. Someone has to start it.

we need to notify other blogs (that’s how we got attention last year).

we can also notify reporters when we have a product to show. I can email a few.

we should try and get the red ribbon cards finalized, at least in principle or photo.

new link to PFAW 2006 page.

Dem, good suggestions. As people settle back in after the long weekend, I hope more volunteers will sign up.

The Ribbon Campaign card should be finalized this week. Dude will provide a template after his graphic designer ‘tweaks’ it. I will send it to Osterholm as soon as the download is available along with a note of explanation. Once that is finished, I will volunteer to work on this project, too.

Sorry, that was me. ST

Should we have PFAW right when people are kicking off the regular seasonal flu clinics? Is there any danger of the panflu message being drowned out (or muddled in the general public’s mind) in all the noise of the “get your flu vaccine” messages?

Thanks Dem! I’ll try to move some items from this thread over to the new page. I’ll start with the proposed date of Oct. 9–15, 2006.

Okay, I’ve put some of the info from this thread on the new page. Please move it around, write some additional questions and answers or add link ideas. The page is Here

If you are unsure about working with the wiki markup, you can post here and I’ll move it to the page. But, if I can do it, trust me, it ain’t that hard! :-)

Link repaired - pogge

Drat, my link is broken- see Dem’s link at 10:43 for the new PFAW page.

Excellent comments above about how to respectfully communicate a range of suggestions.

You don’t usually have to aim to alarm people; the facts are alarming all by themselves in this case. And you don’t have to aim for an unrealistic consensus if you respectfully acknowledge a range of opinions.

“Some officials recommend that people stockpile enough for a couple weeks; others think people should aim for up to eight weeks of basic necessities (or even more), to allow them to shelter in place for longer.

“No one really knows, since this is the first time the general public has been urged to get ready for a disaster as unpredictable as a pandemic — a disaster of unknown timing and severity.

“The ‘best’ minds are not of one mind about what to do. That’s a little scary, but it is the truth. They are giving us suggestions, but they are also telling us to decide for ourselves. We’re all in this together; no one has ever done this before.

“So when you hear different stockpiling recommendations — two weeks, eight weeks, a day or two of tuna fish under your bed — keep in mind that this is new for everyone.

“What most experts seem to agree about: ‘Do something rather than nothing; do more if you can, so you will be able to help others; learn enough to decide for yourself how much to do.”

I don’t know if the quotes are simply a method of clarifying your thoughts, but I’d like to steal every one of them, if they’re not accounted for, and/or credit them properly if they are from elsewhere.

anonymous – at 13:26

one of the teacing points is that there are three flus - bird flu, panflu and seasonal flu. Lugon built a page on that concept.

Path Forward- wonderful!

I think the best way to distinguish our efforts from the myriad of “flu” prepareness websites and campaigns is to lead with the ribbon campaign. That’s the news item that the media will pick up on because it’s different. The real question is whether more than a handful of fluwikians will make and distribute the ribbons and cards. I have set mine up, and plan to hit the fabric store this week to start making ribbons. (Learned how to make them right after 911).

I think that the govt’s September is Preparedness Month seems to be more generic…for any kind of disaster because they still talk about have a 3 day supply. I like the idea of October because it will be a week designated for just the Pan-Flu.

Another consideration - is there some natural event that we can tag onto, such as October 10th is when all the waterfowl have made reservations to come home to the USA for the season. Maybe a cute spin about how while the “snowbirds” are busy planning and packing for the “season” in Florida, there’s another kind of bird that’s also making their way south for the winter. Sometimes it takes a little bit of a play on words to make a headline that sticks. (Not that I am suggesting we downplay the importance here).

I will volunteer to draft a press release that we can all use to distribute, and then we can get reactions from the others.

Okay - here’s a first stab at a press release (realizing that I wrote this in a vacuum). Open to comments a& suggestions, improvement and edits, etc.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE!!!! Contact: _________________________

September 24, 2006 ______________@fluwikie.com

‘Flying south but not solo’

’Snowbirds are not alone in their plans to head south for the winter…

	It’s time for bird-flu carrying waterfowl to descend upon us, too.’

A worldwide consortium of scientists, doctors, health administrators, and concerned citizens have mounted an awareness campaign to help encourage public education about the impending “bird flu”. Under the umbrella of “Fluwiki”, thousands of volunteers are busy making Pandemic Awareness ribbons and information cards containing specific websites where people can access information about how to properly prepare for the pandemic flu.

“There’s no way of determining exactly when we will encounter a pandemic in the United States, but whenever it is, there will be little time to adequately prepare for the level of hibernation necessary to stay safe,” commented ________________, one of the founders of the Fluwiki. “Various computer models project that once the flu mutates to an efficient human-to-human level, it will take anywhere from 72 hours to 12 days to spread to every metropolitan city in the world.”

While several governmental websites suggest preparing for a minimum of 3 days, the majority of scientific experts agree that individuals should be prepared for 6–8 weeks, which is the anticipated duration of the first wave of the pandemic flu. In addition to non-perishable food, an ample supply of potable water (1 gallon/person/day), prescription medications and various hygiene products, individuals are also encouraged to secure an ample supply of the following items:  N-95 Masks with ventilator (1 per day of public exposure)  Disposable latex gloves  Alcohol-based hand sanitizer  Cold/flu medications, including fever-reducers, expectorants, fluids with electrolytes

Another important consideration is the risk to our utilities, transportation and infrastructure, which most experts acknowledge will suffer to some degree, not to mention the fact that our health care system, hospitals, health care workers and funeral homes will be utterly overwhelmed.

The “Fluwikians” are united in their quest to increase the sense of urgency of preparedness by wearing and distributing the Pandemic Awareness ribbons as shown here during the upcoming Pandemic Awareness Week of October 9–15, 2006. Their message is simple: Go to any of the following websites to become informed. Before the birds fly south. www.fluwikie.com www.pandemicflu.gov www.birdflubreakingnews.com

I like 95% of it, Ranchgirl… I really have to think on which parts we might want to indicate are less certain. Like, “most experts” should generally be changed to “many experts worry might…”

“the risk to our utilities, transportation and infrastructure, which most experts acknowledge will suffer to some degree” would become

“the risk to our utilities, transportation and infrastructure, which many experts worry might suffer to some degree”

We don’t want to present uncertainty as certainty. That’s also true for home supplies. Focusing on N-95 masks doesn’t make sense. The basics (food water and meds) make much more sense.

“Their message is simple: Disaster preparation is more than just the government’s role, and a pandemic is beyond what any local, statre or national government can do alone. Go to any of the following websites to become informed. Before the birds fly south.”

The other issue is making it sould like it’s inevitible that the birds come, and then we have pandemic. Not so simple.

Again, excellent start, let’s work on this.

BTTT

I have added more of the great content from this thread to the page. Now we need to decide what 4–5 questions we want to use for the Q & A and then the content can be moved around to start the answers.

Questions anyone?

QUESTION:

(preliminary thoughts only, my neck hurts, so I can’t type too well)

People say we don’t need to worry about a pandemic until it happens, but I’m worried about my children. If there is a pandemic, and my kids get sick, surely I can just take him to the hospital then, right? Why would I need to do anything BEFORE a pandemic happens?

How would an outbreak of cases in Asia affect me, even if there are no cases in the US? - to explain supply chain and infrastructure issues

What is the current situation?

QUESTION:

(what my friends all ask me)

Why is this my problem to think about? Don’t we have officials whose job it is to be planning for these types of situations? And if it is such a big concern, why aren’t people talking more about it? Why isn’t it front page news?

I looked into this last year / asked my doctor about it and felt it wasn’t going to be a big deal. Has something in the situation changed recently?

Anon_22 and Average Concerned Mom- great questions!

I’ve added them to the page here. We could use some more…. everyone take a look and add your questions.

pogge-thanks for the link repair, hope I do better this time. ;-)

Lauralou bangs her head on the desk. Why can she link to the “outside world” and not to the wiki?? grrrr.

Link fixed in above post. Easy on the head, you might need that later. - pogge

When you’re linking to the wiki from the forum, remember that each has a different domain name and is running on a different server. When you’re linking to the wiki from the forum, treat the wiki like the “outside world” and vice-versa.

Dem - all good advice. Once others have had a chance to input I will re-draft and post for approval.

as noted on the ask the mods thread, I’ll update the logo. I’ll likely host it offsite.

Thanks Dem, I have one more mod-related item. I saw “non-profit” on your list of things we need to be clear on. I was looking for a wiki page that would explain this so I could use it as a link. Does the “About Flu Wiki” need to have the non-profit info added? Or am I just not finding where it was placed? or am I not understanding what you were suggesting?

it’s also on the PFAwe page now. And we need to update the non-profit info.

And yes, About Flu Wiki is where it belongs.

Great logo, Dem!

We need to decide where to place the ribbon campaign also. If we use it to ‘launch’ the pandemic week as some have suggested, it should probably be toward the top of the document.

I was also wondering if you have come up with a press release to launch the campaign?

ranchgirl got it started… still needs editing

To reiterate, there is discussion above re the press release and what needs to be done.

The PFAW 2006 page is here.

The press release (for editing) is here.

I have a thought. I tried to read the page as a somewhat skeptical newbie, and statements like this “A moderate or severe flu pandemic will cause widespread societal disruptions. Even a flu virus with a low kill rate will make many people very sick at the same time.” seems to me just some people stating what they believe. It wouldn’t have convinced me if I was skeptical.

So I am going to write a page called ‘Current Risk Assessment’ summarizing what we know, to give a slightly more detailed analysis of why we think what we think, and link that to the page, with something like ‘For a more thorough analysis of the current situation’ kind of link.

Its 4:30am. My neck hurts. I shouldn’t talk myself into more work.

But I have a few different pieces that I can put together and make that happen… Maybe tomorrow.

No, today.

Whatever…

Long thread, closed and continued here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread.