Part 1 here
To continue on this very worthwhile discussion:
Well, I guess we should all do what each of us are good at, and the diversity is what makes this forum great. :-)
So, what else can we do?
I am a very pragmatic person. I look around and ask myself where does the power lie. And, you know what? The power does not lie with the WHO or the UN. It lies with national governments and leaders, with big business, and with the media.
If you doubt this, ask yourself when was the last time the UN or any of its institutions was able to compel any national government or leader/dictator do what it is not willing to do? Look at Iraq, North Korea, Israel, Darfur, issues like climate change, International Criminal Court. I can fill pages with examples of its powerlessness.
The reason why I write this is not because I believe it is wrong to bash the WHO, it is because in doing so, we may be missing the bigger target.
The good news is that the people who can make a difference to pandemic outcome are the same ones who are likely to listen to you or bow to public pressure. National leaders at the stroke of a pen can direct funding, policy, communications, education, negotiations, legislation, you name it, in whatever way that they can be persuaded to do. Despite all the starry-eyed stuff about international community and globalization, national governments have never for one moment given up the bulk of their power.
Let me give some examples:
What if government decides tomorrow to publicly advocate and assist every family in every country to set aside at least 2 weeks of essential items to enable any emergency shelter-in-place, which would cushion some of the panic at the start of a pandemic? What if it is 1 month, 3 months? How many lives might that save? What if big businesses like Wal-Mart or Asda can be persuaded to supply these items at cost?
What if big charities like the Gates Foundation can fund public education projects of local sustainability for communities all over the world with expertise from various NGO’s?
What if government, in co-ordination with the Red Cross, can be persuaded to start a massive public education campaign (and I mean massive, like every evening on primetime TV) on infection control, how to care for sick people at home, how to store fuel safely, how to homeschool your kids, how to make your own masks, how to organize shared childcare for essential workers?
What if the US government can be persuaded to double, triple or otherwise substantially increase its funding for pandemic vaccine research? What if every European government can be persuaded to contribute to a pot of money to at least match the current US funding?
What if government can be persuaded to relax prescription requirements for certain antibiotics, antivirals, and other essential medicine to enable limited personal stockpiling?
What if governments can be persuaded to make it mandatory for every student to take 1 short course of either first aid, infection control, water recycling, home energy conservation, food storage, bereavement, etc in order to graduate from high school?
How many lives would that save? How much angst and stress and mistrust can we reduce? How much violence can be prevented because people are better prepared, less scared, more trusting?
I can go on.
But some folks would say: but governments won’t do that without correct information from the WHO.
With all respect, I don’t believe that argument for a minute.
If you and I and all the regulars on this forum, with access only to information available in the public domain, can come to certain conclusions about what we need to do to mitigate this disaster, then politicians do not need more information than what we can give them, right now. Any suggestion that they need more is either IMO a serious underestimation of their intelligence (or overestimation of ours) or, if coming from an official, a pretext for inaction.
(BTW, I would suggest that there is a small but real danger that the campaign to get more openness from the WHO, which I repeat is an entirely worthwhile cause, might have the unfortunate side-effect of giving politicians an escape clause for inaction.)
I have gone to many conferences recently. They are useful, but lately I’ve begun to detect a flaw. And the flaw is this: there is too much science, and not enough application. Like a tech company that has the best geeks but no one to run market research, sales, PR, finance, customer service, etc.
In short, in addition to scientists, epidemiologists etc, we need managers. We don’t just PhD’s and MD’s, we need MBA’s.
I don’t know how to bring this about yet, but it is my personal wish that the next big pandemic conference will be called something like “Global Pandemic Mitigation and Strategic Management Symposium”.
anon_22 – at 21:09 Give that young lady a Cupie Doll she gets it.
“And the flaw is this: there is too much science, and not enough application. Like a tech company that has the best geeks but no one to run market research, sales, PR, finance, customer service, etc”
“the campaign to get more openness from the WHO, which I repeat is an entirely worthwhile cause, might have the unfortunate side-effect of giving politicians an escape clause for inaction.”
The good folks in the Medical Community fighting with each other on science plays right into the hands of political and business leaders. They do not want to spend the money it would take to do the right thing. It would take away from wars, weapons, gifts to their friends or money in their pockets. They (the political leaders of the world) what to say don’t worry be happy we have it covered. “IF Pan Flu happens it is all the Medical Communities fault they could not get their acts together. If if does not happen, it is all the medical communities fault for trying to scare you aren’t you glad I did not waste your money.” Do a little two step either way we go.
We need a Jack Kennedy a Churchhill or an FDR to stand up and say we are doing to does this, not because it is easy but because it is hard and the right thing to do.
Side Note: I never saw Pan Flu as a health issue. It is a social issue on the survial of civilization and our way of life. HHS should not be in charge; DHS or the VP should be in charge in the US, with special join committee from both houses of congress working together. (A lot of people would have their necks on the line and beleive me they would get it right)
There are really 2 issues here, and we need to separate them. One is preparedness. On that score I agree completely with anon_22′s post at 21:09. There is much national governments can do on their own, at least the rich ones like the US. And I think they are starting to do more. Not enough and not fast enough, but I do see improvement in preparedness in the US. I agree completely that we should all push every politician and organization we can to prepare.
The second issue is transparency/coverups. I used to think countries simply didn’t want to admit they had bird flu in their countries. But after the strange sequence retractions and attempted blocking of the NEJM paper, I took a closer look at the sequences that have been deposited. Somethings wrong. I’m not sure what it is, exactly, but something is wrong. Maybe it’s just a whole bunch of clerical errors, but the Karo cluster isn’t the only one with strange patterns of sequences. Hence, the WHO’s complicity in preventing sequences from being released becomes even more serious.
I want to make clear again that I have the utmost respect for some people who have worked at the WHO. My beef is with the Management, not the worker bees.
anon_451,
You are absolutely right. A number of years ago, while trying to learn the politics of HIV/AIDS, I received one golden nugget of wisdom from a senior politician, that to predict whether a country will succeed in turning the tide against HIV, you only need to look at who is in charge of the campaign. If it is the Health Minister, they’re not going to make that goal. And it has turned out to be true over many years of observation.
So it is with pandemic planning, that any country where the person in charge has the word ‘Health’ in his job title, will fare badly in a pandemic.
Right now, that is just about every country on this planet, as far as I know.
“But after the strange sequence retractions and attempted blocking of the NEJM paper, I took a closer look at the sequences that have been deposited. Somethings wrong. I’m not sure what it is, exactly, but something is wrong. Maybe it’s just a whole bunch of clerical errors, but the Karo cluster isn’t the only one with strange patterns of sequences.”
Monotreme,
(sigh) What it is is Third World Politics.
I used to live in places like that, I still know people who do. I’m sorry, I really am, but those of you who grow up in societies where certain minimum standards are taken for granted without thinking, like the air that you breathe, will find it hard to understand the imperatives of those who either live or come from those countries or have to answer to those kinds of political pressures. I really do sympathisize with your intellectual and moral plight, and I don’t know if it is possible to say as gently as I can that saying “that’s not acceptable” ain’t gonna cut any ice with those folks, and that’s the long and short of it, my friend.
Monotreme – at 21:36 “But after the strange sequence retractions and attempted blocking of the NEJM paper, I took a closer look at the sequences that have been deposited. Somethings wrong. I’m not sure what it is, exactly, but something is wrong.”
There could be any number of issues at play. From the “Boy are we making a mistake in letting others see this” to the really bad. “We can not let the world know what we have done”.
In any case it no longer matters. sequence release is very important as it will give the medical communitty the data they need to work the health issue.
We as a group need to get the Health Care Managers as the advisor to the people that can really do the job of preparing the world for a Pan Flu. Individuals in the right positions. (Minister of Homeland Security or Defense not Health anything) can force the release of the sequence’s. John Bolton would listen to Don Runsfeld, I doubt he would even take Mike Livetts call.
It is all politics at this point and the world will suffer because of it.
Anon 451 at21.31:
Put the VP in charge? Are you insane?
It would have to be somebody not in it for the money or the politics like Warren Buffett. Who would question his motivations? Anon 451 all the people you mentioned are totally immersed in something else and please note “saving lives” isn’t on their agenda. You must look at how they do, not what they say.
WHO and the UN can point to actual mandates they directed that actually saved lives. However, countries don’t seem to put people first as far as I can tell from my limited experience, they use them like poker chips to bet on food shipments or medicine. A fabulous letter to the WHO that gets published in editorials across the country in many newspapers would be more effective that one letter that can get chunked in the trashcan. I wish I could offer something more hopeful, but I’ve learned that what I see is usally exactly what the people in charge want me to see (there is no spoon).
Leo7 – at 23:02 Put the VP in charge? Are you insane?
Leo7 Not insane just trying to make the best out of the hand we are dealt. It care nothing for the current administration. But they are in charge and we have to work with them even if we do not like it.
“A fabulous letter to the WHO that gets published in editorials across the country in many newspapers would be more effective that one letter that can get chunked in the trashcan”
You in fact have something there. But it would need to be placed in newspapers around the world. Not just in the US. The most important part of that letter would be pointing out the fact that the sitting administration in each country around the world would be responsible for any failure on the the part of the WHO and that the blood of their people would be on their hands for a failure to act.
‘’I took a closer look at the sequences that have been deposited.
Somethings wrong. I’m not sure what it is, exactly, but something is wrong. Maybe it’s just a whole bunch of clerical errors, but the Karo cluster isn’t the only one with strange patterns of sequences’‘
be more specific. Which sequences ? How do you come to the conclusion ?
anon_22, I don’t expect those folks to respond to anything I say. My point is to make sure my elected officials understand that there are serious problems with the sequences and someone needs to be looking at them, closely. I’m not even sure the officials in Indonesia understand exactly what’s happening. Maybe the officials in Viet Nam have a clue, but I’m not sure. MFN status is highly desired. It can be removed.
anonymous – at 00:10,
Give me some time. I am working on the H5N1 Viral Sequences Isolated from Patients page. Some preliminary BLASTs look quite odd, but I need to do further analysis. In the meantime, why don’t you start checking yourself? Ask yourself these questions: “Why are certain sequences missing? What sequence should a given isolate from a human at a particular point in time from a particular region most resemble? Does it? If not, why not?”
I will post on this later.
anonymous,
Let me give you some more clues. Scroll down to the last two cases current listed for Viet Nam, a 35 year old woman and her 13 year old daughter. Look at the sequences for both of them. Also, check out this paper. The code for which sequences belong to which patient are found in the Supplementary Material.
See if you agree with my assignments. Then compare sequences.
It is wise to distinguish between those things that we can change and those that we can’t change. We have time constraints and a multijurisdictional, ancient, organizational structure in WHO. I see no point in wasting time trying to make any institutional changes or personnel changes at the WHO or even in having any success in getting them to do what can/should be done (as we see it anyway). We need IMO the grace to accept that. They operate in their context.
That does not mean that we are powerless. It does mean that we need to brainstorm alternatives.
For example, if the WHO or any staff member at WHO wanted to get information out unofficially: They need only contact me (read my bio or ask any regular on this site, if I sound like the kind of person you can trust) at dude@singtomeohmuse.com So go to any Internet cafe for your intial contact. Maybe you can help us understand an issue if scientific information on that issue can’t be traced back to you as a source. I can then give you an email box to use. This box has web-mail ability. I can post the box information with username and password on this forum and then you can change the pass word to one you want. Lots of things we can do. If you have anything you want to say off the record use that to contact Dem or Meanie or anon22 etc. Only use the internet cafe when you use this box. Don’t use your personal computer. We have the ability to use FTP to upload data or accept a CD at a PO box. I am not advocating that you break any law or put yourself in any jeopardy of course. We need data so that we can confront our own governments with facts. I have been doing computer work for 40 years and I will be glad to advise you on what you can get away with. I have friends who would be only too happy to help us do a side project like this. Grin. That could be one idea to help with the flow of information.
dude, why not just give your PGP public key ? And better use remailers than internet cafes, they are probably keeping records.
Anon_22, the “Global Pandemic Mitigation and Strategic Management Symposium” has already started and it’s called fluwikie. Ok, some minor glitches that I see:
We’re powerless so let’s think openly. :-)
What I think we could do starting now:
Now, let’s look at the “mitigation” part. I believe if we think “mitigation” we need to look at the fundamental weaknesses of how we live. We need to think in at least two broad time-scales: short term it’s “mitigation”, longer term it’s “in-built resilience”, and we need both.
Maybe WHO etc are like fossil fuel: they are something we need to stop thinking about in order to think of something new? Think function, not organ? What do we want to achieve? Monotreme called it “civ 2.0″. It’s already happening around us. Let’s connect, give and take.
Focus and connections. We need both.
Monotreme – at 01:37 anonymous,
Let me give you some more clues. Scroll down to the last two cases current listed for Viet Nam, a 35 year old woman and her 13 year old daughter. Look at the sequences for both of them. Also, check out this paper. The code for which sequences belong to which patient are found in the Supplementary Material.
See if you agree with my assignments. Then compare sequences.
119 mutations from mother to daughter ?
119 would dwarf the 21 from Karo ! Could it be that the sequencing method makes errors too, when it is done as in Vietnam ? Why doesn’t the paper (deJong,…) mention the 119 mutations ?
please copy the above over to the apropriate forum thread - thanks!
bump - please see postings on Symposium
http://www.crimelibrary.com/news/original/0706/1402_who_looking.html
This is an interesting article which is worth a read.
This is just the last page of a 9 page article. I would read the whole thing
Deception Dominates World Health Organization’s Bird Flu Releases
Withholding The Evidence
WHO has been able to get away with many of its deceptions regarding the genetic mutations in the H5N1 virus because of its increasingly controversial practice of not making the genetic information public so that the world’s scientific community can study it. Hopefully, this practice is coming to an end — one way or another.
Some interesting things happened when various influenza experts met in Jakarta June 21–23. The presentations and the information about the mutations in the large Indonesian cluster discussed in this closed session were leaked. Niman received the genetic sequences from that cluster and divulged what he learned to his entire audience.
It was no surprise to Niman that the mutations were much more extensive than WHO let on to the public. Apparently, the statement that WHO released was accurate, but the wording was very carefully parsed and much information had been left out.
Subsequently, Nature published a revealing article on the full mutations in the Indonesian cluster where human-to-human transmission took place at least twice. Declan Butler commented on it in his blog:
“WHO said on 23 May that there was ‘no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations.’
“The data obtained by Nature suggests that although the WHO statement was not incorrect, plenty more could have been said. Viruses from five of the cases had between one and four mutations each compared with the sequence shared by most of the strains. In the case of the father [Dowes Ginting] who is thought to have caught the virus from his son — a second-generation spread — there were twenty-one mutations across seven of the eight flu genes.”
WHO has to abide by the constraints put on them by member states, who own the genetic information gathered within their countries. Countries may not permit the sharing of the influenza genetic data because they want to have an advantage in developing a vaccine faster if a pandemic strain emerges in their country — a vaccine which would find a ready market in the rest of the world. Some media reports have suggested that Indonesia is willing to share its information, but WHO has not yet formally requested it.
1918 influenza pandemic
In a world where it is increasingly difficult to get a large number of countries to agree on anything and where the levels of ignorance and poverty encourage a perfect breeding ground for the development of a pandemic strain of influenza, it is unreasonable to expect that WHO can always contain the outbreaks in time and that they can persuade corrupt and negligent governments to act responsibly.
What we can and should expect from WHO is the truth — as soon as they know it — not spin or information management that insults human intelligence. If the United Nations’ World Health Organization cannot be trusted in the prelude to a pandemic, what good do they serve?
lugon – at 05:22 (in the “News” thread), wrote
http://www.crimelibrary.com/news/original/0706/1402_who_looking.html is the open first article I see about not trusting WHO’s information. It was referenced in another thread (meaning here) (thanks!).
Haven’t read it in full. Comments appreciated: short comments here (news at the breakfast table), longer comments in that other thread (meaning here).
My comment: this is the oposite meme to the “Rumfield and Roche” meme that has been circulating the ‘net (“there’s no pandemic risk, it’s all about selling tamiflu”). So now we have this other meme “they are hiding the real risk” - bets are it won’t take off, or will it? We might have a wiki page to refer people to, summarizing the issue from the point of view of the readers of that meme (just like those “this is a hoax” pages), so that the counter-meme (in the first case) or the full-explanation-meme (in the second case) will be easy to reference. Such a full-explanation-meme would have a short summary of the revere’s articles about WHO, and our summary to the uninitiated - again, pen it in the other thread (meaning here).
So what would be our short reply to that article?
“So what would be our short reply to that article?”
Read Flu Wiki instead of WHO statements?
<g>
Quoted from the article:
“Would anyone suggest today that state and local governments on the Gulf Coast should have played down the potential for destruction before Katrina hit? So that people wouldn’t panic? Then why deceive the world about a pandemic that would kill tens of millions? Why not be truthful so that people and governments have the maximum time available to prepare?”
In my opinion, I feel the potential for destruction was played down before Katrina hit. We didn’t “suggest” it, it’s the way they decided to go. Much the same for our current situation. No one is suggesting they play down the threat of a possible pandemic. It’s the way TPTB have decided to go. How can we break the secracy? Journalists voicing their opinions.
anon_22: yes, that’s clever and useful - but we should direct them to the News threads. Is there a unique link to that or it changes daily?
“Is there a unique link to that or it changes daily?”
Right now, no. I don’t know if that can be done. Have to leave that to pogge.
lugon, thank you for your inputs. Just to let you know that I’ve read them, but I’ve been unwell this week and not so not able to achieve much. I will respond next week.
It will be hell next week cos of all the stuff that’s been put off. :-( Oh, well.
anon_22, take care of yourself a bit - you know about oxigen and fellow passengers etc
anon_22 – at 21:09
I’ve been giving thought to the examples you gave a few days ago. You are right that there is so much more that could be done with strong leadership. You illuminate the creativity that is available to tap if TPTB wanted to mobilize against this threat.
But I ran into this speculation from another thread here (Question about not working)from banshee – at 12:03 and it got me thinking about the limits of what can be done by our governments (national, state and local):
“The thought has occurred to me that the last thing the gov’t wants is for the entire population to SIP for more than a few days in the event of a pandemic. <snip> The economic consequences and possibly social consequences of a long national SIP would be severe.”
I think this also applies to the other mitigations you suggested.
“What if government decides tomorrow to publicly advocate and assist every family in every country to…”
If I’m the CEO of nearly any major corporation, wouldn’t I be on the horn to every politio I know saying, “What the @#$% are you doing?!?! Who’s going to buy a new car, or a new suit, or (you name the less than essential item) when you’re telling the populace to prepare for a global disaster? This initiative is going to tank our economy overnight!!!”
There is a momentum to the global economy. TPTB are aware that IP could severely damage that momentum but they sure aren’t going to be the cause of (albeit, well intentioned)preventative measures that could also break the momentum of the global economic engine. It’s a catch-22 that we can’t find our way out of.
If national governments and large global corporations are making strategic pandemic plans, you can be sure those plans are top secret (or whatever designation is higher than top secret). They might talk publicly about workplace or community prep but they’re not going to talk about real strategic planning, and they’re sure not going to share the serious worst case planning that if made public would introduce chaos (if not panic) into the marketplace.
Is it the government’s job to protect people (at the cost of the economic engine), or to protect the economy (knowing that if the economy fails, people will also suffer and die)?
Which brings this back to us - grassroots efforts to anticipate the dangers and preach individual responsibility and preparedness even when we know government leadership in this could be so much more effective.
Dan,
“The thought has occurred to me that the last thing the gov’t wants is for the entire population to SIP for more than a few days in the event of a pandemic. <snip> The economic consequences and possibly social consequences of a long national SIP would be severe.”
I absolutely agree.
But CEO’s are human. They have family. They are intelligent, so they can and will extrapolate their findings to what could happen to their precisous offsprings and start making preparations, quietly no doubt.
But they also have staff who have to implement all the pandemic prep, to whom they have to explain why. If the most cost-conscious folks in the higher ranks of big corporates start to suddenly spend big money on these things, you can be sure that the staff will sit up and notice.
Sure, it’s all confidential. But the staff will draw their conclusions about pandemic flu from what’s happening in the office. Nothing that the WHO or the governments say will be half as convincing as seeing real money being spent inside big corporates. And they will tell their families, and best friends, and their kids’ friends parents, and their maiden aunt, etc.
That is how I see it unfolding.
Oh! the power of money to convince! :-)
Dan,
To add more clarity: My allusion to government is in the context of where our energy ought to go if we feel inclined to protest or advocate in order to change public policy. This can and should go hand in hand with everything else that we can do in local communities, businesses, personal efforts wherever the opportunity arises.
Anon_22,
We like to think our government leaders lead, but they usually just follow (and maybe that’s okay). If a strong grassroots effort picks up enough speed and interest, some business and governement leaders will pick up on this and jump to join.
I’m not advocating that we give up on any efforts. I’m just trying to understand the political and economic landscape enough to figure where best to apply pressure and when. There is a case to be made for strategic business planning aimed at protecting and preserving as much of the global economy as possible so as to minimize the collateral damage caused by failed infrastructure - especially after the pandemic subsides. I hope TPTB are thinking along those lines even if they aren’t telling me about it. I further hope those efforts are not in conflict with their support of the message that we need to take preparation for hard times seriously.
The question is: Does preserving the economy require putting people in danger? For example, if the economy requires a certain percentage of the workforce to keep reporting to work, does the government downplay the importance of SIP, or the danger of IP? If they promote personal prep, do too many people have the option of not working?
It is not an easy needle to thread.
We might need to change our economy anyway. We might want to, for several reasons, and no, I’m not going to mention peak oil, global warming, political instability or world wide stress.
There’s these threads (1? and 2) about emergency community currencies. Why those threads? Because this “inminent” pandemic (“inminent” relative to our capacity to adapt to the wave and surf it while breathing) will be special because of the virus (whatever it turns out to be) and ourselves (whatever we turn out to become). It will hurt us because we are weak.
In my mind the whole issue is framed in four quadrants. My hunch is there is no such thing as a mild pandemic, and we should talk about “bad” and “worse”. It’s also my hunch that there’s no such thing as a late pandemic, and there would be “soon” or “sooner”. My two priorities would be “sooner and worse”, and “soon and worse”, but this may need more thinking because strategies for “bad” and for “worse” might be qualitatively different.
In any case, we may want to strengthen the world, period. The question “how do we eat?”, posed insistently by Laurie Garrett, is the important thing. The answer today is either “we don’t eat much” (large parts of the world) and “we are fat out of food from far, far away”. (Yes, I’m greatly oversimplifying.) So we should grow local food, period. Local food and local energy. There’s talk about “food sovereignity” (which probably rhymes with dignity). If we are basically selfsufficient, then we can take care of the rest.
I know all of this sounds foolish, but we may need more than one “entry point” if we want to unravel this mess.
What I want to get at is this: If it is “sooner and worse” then we need to think of emergency food, emergency water, emergency electricity and emergency communications. If it’s “later”, then we need basic self-sufficiency, local self-reliance, or whatever you call it. It may be time to join worldchangers all over the place and create those two grassroot strategies (“sooner” and “later”). We have the elements to do it, the “ants” to do it, and the internet to do it. We have/are women (sorry again about the oversimplification, but I’m refering to the “capacity to care practically for those around you”) all over the world.
Politicians will follow or not.
If the economy must change, so be it. After all, it’s only one way to feed ourselves, and it doesn’t even look like it’s the best way.
Closed to maintain Forum speed.