I need to write a one page summary to present to Town Officials 9/22
I would like to cover all the main points to make them turn white as ghosts
It needs to be credible
It needs pretty charts showing age spread (young die most) and growth of infections & death over time
Please any help would be appreciated.
Suggest you see Anon_22′s paper on “Why Take Bird Flu Seriously.” I have saved a copy and can copy and paste it here if you can’t find it in the index.
Because I have to leave the computer for an hour or so, I’m going to go ahead and post a copy of this. While she originally posted this as a series, I will see if it all goes with one cut and paste since it bears repeating for anyone who has not yet seen it:
WHY WE NEED TO TAKE BIRD FLU SERIOUSLY
13 December 2005 anon_22 – at 13:09
In response to comments over several different threads, I will attempt to put together a more-or-less coherent view of why this pandemic threat is like no other threat and should be taken seriously. It may take a little while over several posts but I would like to address the following:
Why infectious disease outbreak is worse than other disasters (eg tsunami or nuclear event)
Why pandemic flu is worse than other virus outbreaks
Why it will be worse in 21st than previous centuries
Why is H5N1 likely to be worse than previous flu pandemics
Why mortality is likely to be high with H5N1 pandemic (this overlaps with previous post)
Why even 1–3% mortality is high
(NOTE: the mortality rate is still above 50% and as high as 78% in the most recent Indonesian clusters. So, the virus has not yet mutated into a lower case fatality rate such as is illustrated below.)
anon_22 – at 20:35 I rest my case.
Goju,
Here is the FluWiki H5N1 Fatality Table by Age and Country. I will be updating it later tonight. It’s not pretty, but does provide the basic information. Maybe someone could make a prettier version.
I certainly would use this year’s fatality rate from bird flu in Indonesia (it changes but I believe it is around 75%)
Also Monotreme’s posting just now from ProMed about the many pig deaths in China (pigs being a known influenza vector and mixing “vessel”)
Grant Woodson’s monograph (here on fluwiki) has at the end a letter that was written during the 1918 pandemic. It contains gruesome details about the quick, horrible deaths at an Army post from that flu. That got my attention. Perhaps you could have that printed on the back of your one page.
I’ll see if I can find it and post it here in a minute.
Two things: formating didn’t come out as it was originally presented by Anon22 and the NOTE that shows up in red is something I obviously added after the Karo cluster when I sent this to some friends to encourage them to wake up and prep!
Here’s the 1918 very chilling letter:
A Doctor’s Letter during the Height of the 1918 Pandemic[27] In September 1918, the second pandemic influenza wave was making its way through the America. Military bases were especially hard hit by the pandemic in the US. Below is a reprint of a letter from a recently recruited military doctor assigned to a US Army base in Massachusetts, Camp Devens. This was a training base for new recruits and was one of the worst affected by the flu. The letter is important for its clear description of the rapid course of the illness, how this pandemic flu differed so greatly from the usual seasonal variety, and how the medical resources of the camp had become exhausted by the sheer number of cases and the high case fatality rate.
Camp Devens, Mass. Surgical Ward No 16 29 September 1918 (Base Hospital)
My dear Burt- It is more than likely that you would be interested in the news of this place, for there is a possibility that you will be assigned here for duty, so having a minute between rounds I will try to tell you a little about the situation here as I have seen it in the last week.
As you know I have not seen much Pneumonia in the last few years in Detroit, so when I came here I was somewhat behind in the niceties of the Army way of intricate Diagnosis. Also to make it good, I have had for the last week an exacerbation of my old “Ear Rot” as Artie Ogle calls it, and could not use a Stethoscope at all, but had to get by on my ability to “spot” ‘ em thru my general knowledge of Pneumonias. I did well enough, and finally found an old Phonendoscope that I pieced together, and from then on was all right. You know the Army regulations require very close locations etc.
Camp Devens is near Boston, and has about 50,000 men, or did have before this epidemic broke loose. It also has the Base Hospital for the Div. of the N. East. This epidemic started about four weeks ago, and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it has passed. All assemblages of soldiers taboo.
These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of LaGrippe or Influenza, and when brought to the Hosp. they very rapidly develop the most viscous type of Pneumonia that has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they have the Mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored men from the white. It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes, and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand it to see one, two or twenty men die, but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We have been averaging about 100 deaths per day, and still keeping it up. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a new mixed infection here, but what I dont know. My total time is taken up hunting Rales, rales dry or moist, sibilant or crepitant or any other of the hundred things that one may find in the chest, they all mean but one thing here -Pneumonia-and that means in about all cases death.
The normal number of resident Drs. here is about 25 and that has been increased to over 250, all of whom (of course excepting me) have temporary orders-“Return to your proper Station on completion of work”. Mine says “Permanent Duty”, but I have been in the Army just long enough to learn that it doesn’t always mean what it says. So I dont know what will happen to me at the end of this.
We have lost an outrageous number of Nurses and Drs., and the little town of Ayer is a sight. It takes Special trains to carry away the dead. For several days there were no coffins and the bodies piled up something fierce, we used to go down to the morgue (which is just back of my ward) and look at the boys laid out in long rows. It beats any sight they ever had in France after a battle. An extra long barracks has been vacated for the use of the Morgue, and it would make any man sit up and take notice to walk down the long lines of dead soldiers all dressed and laid out in double rows. We have no relief here, you get up in the morning at 5:30 and work steady till about 9.30 P.M., sleep, then go at it again. Some of the men of course have been here all the time, and they are TIRED.
If this letter seems somewhat disconnected overlook it, for I have been called away from it a dozen times the last time just now by the Officer of the Day, who came in to tell me that they have not as yet found at any of the autopsies any case beyond the red hepatitis stage. It kills them before they get that far.
I don’t wish you any hard luck Old Man but I do wish you were here for a while at least. It’s more comfortable when one has a friend about. The men here are all good fellows, but I get so damned sick o Pneumonia that when I go to eat I want to find some fellow who will not “Talk Shop” but there ain’t none nohow. We eat it, live it, sleep it, and dream it, to say nothing of breathing it 16 hours a day. I would be very grateful indeed if you would drop me a line or two once in a while, and I will promise you that if you ever get into a fix like this, I will do the same for you.
Each man here gets a ward with about 150 beds, (Mine has 168) and has an Asst. Chief to boss him, and you can imagine what the paper work alone is - fierce,-- and the Govt. demands all paper work be kept up in good shape. I have only four day nurses and five night nurses (female) a ward-master, and four orderlies. So you can see that we are busy. I write this in piecemeal fashion. It may be a long time before I can get another letter to you, but will try.
This letter will give you an idea of the monthly report, which has to be in Monday. I have mine most ready now. My Boss was in just now and gave me a lot more work to do so I will have to close this.
Good Bye old Pal, “God be with you till we meet again” Keep the Bowels open. (Sgd) Roy.
This is part of a file that I’m writing. I can give the references as well if you want.
1. Currently, the world is facing the prospect of an imminent pandemic because of the unrelenting spread of the H5N1 virus. Since 2003, the virus has now spread to >50 countries, infecting at latest count 241 people and killing 141 of them. This gives an extremely high average case fatality rate (CFR) of 58.5%, rising to 67% for 2006 cases1.
2. This does not mean that there will be a pandemic tomorrow. However, according to Malik Peiris, a pandemic is ‘extremely likely’, and “at this point, H5N1 seems to be the most ‘concerning’ as a candidate for a pandemic”.2
3. In 1918, a pandemic with an estimated CFR of between 2–5% killed 50–100 million people worldwide. The similar scenario today could kill 175–350 million people. This is 1000 times more people than were swept away by the 2004 tsunamis. It is more than the number of people killed in all the wars of the 20th century. And they would die within 1 to 2 years, not decades.3
4. But this is by no means the worst case scenario. Even though the 1918 pandemic is often talked about as such, there is actually no scientific basis to believe that to turn into a pandemic strain H5N1 has to become less virulent.4 Even if it does, the CFR has a long way to drop from 67% to 2%.
5. A pandemic caused by an H5N1 virus with such virulence could potentially be a ‘partial population-depletion’ event. Such events are not unknown in nature. In the 1980’s, a H7N7 avian influenza outbreak killed 20% of all harbour seals in the North Atlantic coast.5
6. In the face of such a threat, the world is woefully unprepared. Antiviral drugs will not be available to the vast majority of people in the world, even assuming no drug resistance develops6. Scientists estimate that the next pandemic will likely cause 1 in 3 people to become ill7, ie 2 billion worldwide. The current annual production capacity of tamiflu is 190 million doses for 2006, rising to 400 million expected for 2007.8 Since treatment of H5N1 infected patients currently requires at least twice the normal dose for twice as long,9 this boosted annual production capacity is theoretically enough to treat 100 million people. But significant wastage is expected for many reasons, including misdiagnosis, hoarding, and distribution failure. The need for prophylaxis of contacts and essential personnel will likely reduce that number by another big margin.
7. The shortfall for vaccines is even more severe. With existing technology, there is no realistic chance of any effective H5N1 vaccine being available for the first 120 days of a pandemic10, which is the time that it takes for the virus to spread to every corner of the world. After that, it will take more than a year for the 9 countries with vaccine production capacity to make enough for their own citizens alone11. Those governments will most likely use emergency powers to prevent export of such vaccines till their citizens are all vaccinated. Therefore, countries with no local vaccine plants will have no realistic chance of having a pandemic vaccine in the 18 months to 2 years that a pandemic is expected to play out.
8. We are therefore looking at possibly the biggest catastrophe in the history of mankind, which can happen at any time in the very near future. And the current H5N1 virus tends to target the young, with the peak death rates approaching 80% for teenagers and young adults12, the most able-bodied and the future of any society.
MAinVA – at 22:16
I re-formatted your post for clarity. In the interest of historical accuracy, I did not change any of the content.
anon 22 I was just about to write a comment thanking the “angel” who had come in to correct the format on my cut and paste. Glad it was you, the author, so that it was done correctly. It is a masterful piece of work; as is the one at 23:18, a copy of which I will send to my personal physician. He has charged me with sending him all pertinent info on panflu.
I cannot find the web reference but there was a presentation by a medical doctor-teacher in a medical school in Kentucky (?) that had a video/power point presentation recently on avian flu and its pandemic potential. It had a number of graphs of death rates by age for normal flu and avian flu. Can anyone recall that reference for Goju?
references in brief:
Goju,
Did you try the files in the Dude’s large file ftp site User Name: wikimember Password: wiki123
There are lots of slides there.
Now Goju has another problem. Goju has to make all this into one page :-)
Good luck!
Bulleting the salient points, and combining them with the charts and visuals, should make for a very powerful powerpoint presentation.
Goju,
Can you email me at anon_22 AT hotmail DOT co DOT uk. I have a message for you.
done
By the way - anyone that wants to see a website i built for my town - please visit
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wilton_resident/
so far i did an anonomous snail mailing to 100 houses in my neighborhood. Not one visit.
I expect better results with the Town Officials
Goju,
One of the many projects I hope to work on soon is updating the state panflu plans. One thing I can say at this time is that there is wide variation in how much time is recommended to stockpile food and medicine. Although some, like NYC, only recommend 3 days, others recommend 6 weeks, right now. There are people in DHS who recommend 6 weeks, right now. Dr. Nabarro mentions 6 weeks in talks, right now. I don’t think we should be shy about promoting 6 weeks as a mainstream recommendation. 2 weeks cannot really be justified in a logical way, IMO. Local outbreaks last 6–8 weeks. That’s a fact. So, if the goal is to avoid being infected during a local outbreak, then obviously you need to prep for at least 6 weeks.
I know you know all this, but I want to counter any suggestion that people can only handle 2 weeks and that people will think you are nuts if you tell them the truth. To establish credibility, it is important to be able to explain why you are giving a specific recommendation. In my experience, people do not like being patronized.
if i tell everyone who comes to an event, goes shopping for 6 weeks at one time - we will see just how bad the JIT system really is and how fragile human emotions are.
Prep tip - “when tempers flare, the wise man keeps his fists down”
I can be reached via email at wiltonresident1@yahoo.com
I know back in 1997 and as late as 2005 there was a problem making an H5N1 vax becuase the virus was killing the chicken eggs.
Is that still a problem or have they figured out how to make one in large quantities?
Goju – at 18:46
They have solved the problem of the virus killing the chicken eggs by making a recombinant virus in the lab. However, it is still a problem making large quantities of any flu vaccine in eggs for purely logistical reasons. You need alot of eggs. There are other techniques for vaccine manufacture that don’t reguire chicken egges, cell culture, DNA vaccines, etc., but these are all in the experimental phase.
My town’s plan is to vax everyone at the Middle School. I need to counter the Vax arguement with a short description of the problem - a summary line…
Goju,
First let me say Great Page at your link. I tried that route, no interest from my town folks.
In regards to you vacination at the middle school. I just recently posted something on our local message board about the vaccine clinic we will be running in November to get ready. Feel free to copy it.
This is great that the town is being proactive on planning for an avian flu pandemic or any kind of pandemic when vaccines would be needed to be administered in an expedited fashion. However, there are two problems with the United States plan of Pandemic Vaccination.
One, a vaccine will most likely not be produced until 6 months after the avian flu has the capability to efficiently spread human to human. Vaccines will most likely be in limited quantities. It is estimated that it could take up two years to make enough vaccine for everyone.
Using the 1918 pandemic model we would have sustained at least 2 waves of infection at the 6 month point. In 1918 the first wave was the mildest and the second was the worst. These waves lasted for a period of 6 - 8 weeks each.
Secondly, the CDC proposed priority list for vaccinations places the current highest mortality age group affected by the avian flu today (healthy children and adults ages 5 – 39) in the last category for vaccinations.
Public Health and Healthcare Personnel Public Safety and Essential Community Service Personnel Groups at High Risk of Influenza Complications Everyone Else
I wouldn’t bet the farm, or even $1.00 on being vaccinated in time to prevent widespread sickness and mortality if the mortality rate stays the same as is currently happening with the situation in Asia. The WHO predicts that the coming pandemic could exceed the numbers we saw in 1918, and also believe the current mortality rate will stay the same or could possibly go higher.
I might be inclined to try: “There is no vaccine available to protect you, or your children, and it may be years before such a vaccine exists in large enough quantities to do anyone here any good at all.”
In other words - tell them the truth, that deciding where to vaccinate everybody isn’t going to help anything or anybody.
I also believe that educating the masses in town is what needs to be done first and foremost.
What they are doing with these preparing vaccination clinics is putting the cart before the horse. If you don’t educate before this happens why bother with the vaccines, there won’t be many people left at the 6 month vaccination time.
Goju – at 19:00
Somewhere I read that a vaccine is not expected to be ready for the first wave and even when it is available there won’t be enough for everyone.
I will try to find sources.
comments please
I would stay aware from the 2 week supply comment. Why have everyone prepare for just two weeks when we all know it will be much longer. I would say start with maybe two weeks but up to 6 - 8 weeks is how long a wave would last. Tell them hopefully at that point stores will be able to get some supplies and will be able to ration them to the public.
Unfortunately I am burnt by trying to educate my so called leaders and townsfolks. If anyone told me this was a thankless job they would be right on the money. Please let us know the outcome.
“Modern air travel will shorten the time to weeks. . . “
Days, perhaps?
I’m not too sure that talking about a CFR without explaining it first won’t be over most people’s heads.
I think to believe a vaccine might be available in six months would be a mistake.
I also posted this, not sure if this would help your argument
There is an interesting study done called the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic Escape Community Study by the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan Medical Center. This study shows how some communities had experienced extremely low rates of influenza during the infamous 1918–1920 influenza pandemic.
It could not be determined definitively if these communities sustained lower rates because of policy decisions of their political leaders or because of other factors such as population density, geography, and good fortune.
Some of the methods these communities reported included:
Gunnison, CO Unlike most other western Colorado towns, Gunnison took a very early and active interest in the spread of influenza across the United States in 1918. If newspaper reportage is any indicator of a more general concern, Gunnison’s residents took the threat of the pandemic reaching their county quite seriously. The first article on influenza appeared in the September 27, 1918, issue of the Gunnison News-Champion, in advance of the pandemic reaching that part of the state. From this point until January 1919, the News-Champion included at least one front-page article on influenza in each of its weekly issues.
Other things that also seemed to affect the mortality rate were social distancing, closing of schools and activities, quarantines, closing town borders, and informational campaigns. These initiatives were put into place as soon as the flu started to spread.
You can read more stories at the following link:
http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/gunnison.htm
We all need to remember that we need to take responsibility for ourselves. The government will not be able to help with everything. With a predicted 40% or higher absenteeism rate expected we can expect businesses to close which includes grocery stores, transpiration companies, schools, etc.
It is estimated that once a pandemic starts we will have very little time to prepare ourselves. There are only a few mutations left to make this horrid disease efficiently travel from human to human. With the cover ups in Asia on the spread of the disease and their lack of reporting, it could reach our shores in just days.
Feel free to use my stuff posted at http://www.arielco.us/page3.html Some graphs and charts. I posted the links.
BTW - when you are finished, please post. I could use a good one page summary.
Goju - definitely put the scare factor in for the vaccine (or lack there of). I can’t tell you how many times I hear “they’ll have a vaccine for that” as an reason not to prepare. When I point out that
1) scientists can’t develop an effetive vaccine until it goes H2h and they know exactly what the virus looks like. It can take up to six months to just to develop and test vaccine.
2) vaccine production is a long process and is fraught with production issues. There are not enough vaccine producers in the world to even supply vaccine for seasonal flu, a vaccine only a small portion of the population receives. add to that lack of supplies and workers because so many are ill and it will take an estimated five years to produce enough vaccinate most worldwide.
That usually stops them in their tracks.
No matter how well researched and written, there is no quarantee that your first letter will owrk.
My suggestion-go to your town’s public meetings and sign for “open mike” time if they have it, or ask for free time to address the governing body if they don’t.
Follow that up within a week with a letter to each person you spoke to; summarize what you said and offer some new information. Leave your contact information and plenty of references for them to check out what you said.
That’s what I did. I started my talk to the mayor and governing body with the paragraph at the bottom of Page 17 strategic plan of the federal HHS pandemic flu plan, available on-line. I read it very slowly and repeated it-the part where we will not get any help from even our neighboring towns-we will be on our own-and liked it to Katrina.
It made an impression on at least one person- and she’s a liason with the town’s boad of health, to which I had been appointed, and we are working, albeit very slowly,on a pandemic plan.
“HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan
Part 1: Strategic Plan
“If efforts to contain isolated outbreaks within the U.S. were unsuccessful and influenza spread quickly to affect many more communities either simultaneously or in quick succession—the hallmark of a pandemic—response assets at all levels of government and the private sector would be taxed severely. Communities would need to direct all their influenza response assets to their own needs and would have little to spare for the needs of others. Moreover, as the number of affected communities grows, their collective need would spread the response assets of states and the federal government ever thinner. In the extreme, until a vaccine against the pandemic virus would become available in sufficient quantity to have a significant impact on protecting public health, thousands of communities could be countering influenza simultaneously with little or no assistance from adjacent communities, the state, or the federal government. Preparedness planning for pandemic influenza response must take this prospect into account.”
Goju,
I don’t agree with the 2 weeks suggestion. That goes against other agencies/states that are recommending 6 weeks. The rationale for 2 weeks is that you may be quarantined for that long if you are exposed to a known case. If you want to suggest that people SIP to avoid infection, then 6 weeks is the only logical recommendation.
Trust the people. Some may not be able to handle the truth, but many will.
Goju —
here is a gov’t link that gives statistics on each state/municipality that had impact from the 1918 flu.
If you could extract that specific information for wherever you are giving the speech this week, it may lend a lot more credence to your presentation, and you can compare and contrast what the new flu version may offer.
Good luck, and thank you for all you’ve done -
great so far - keep em coming….
I have a meeting with the Town Officials on sept 22 to tell them why their plan will not work. I need to convince them quickly. The one page doc i will give them must grab their attention and make them listen.
i will offer an alt option.
Goju,
There are a lot of powerful quotes that I’ve assembled in the intro and first chapter of my book that allow the experts to deliver the rather eye-opening risk message.
Please tell me why CFR isn’t it in the fluwikie shorthand stuff????
Goju, Try something like this:
In 2003, about 3,000 people died in home fires in the United States.
In 2004, more than 42,000 people were killed in motor vehicle accidents in the United States.
In 2006, experts conservatively estimate 2.2 million people will die of pandemic flu during the coming pandemic in the United States.
And yet only a fraction of our population has even begun preparing to face this onslaught, which could start any day now.
Sources: 1. National Fire Protection Association at: http://tinyurl.com/kp2uq 2. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration at http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSF2004/809911.pdf 3. Assumes U.S. population of 291,000,000 at 30% infection rate with 2.5% CFR.
Red Cross Biomedical services is planning for at least a 10% CFR
noone knows what the CFR will be of the Pandemic strain. IMHO we are past that debate. Everyone needs to start preparing now. Will - fantastic book there - i highly recomend it - wonderful! Metro - i am advocating 2 weeks as a start - it is 1 - doable 2 - acceptable 3 - JIT can support it 4 - it is NOT alarmist 5 - Safe America is pushing it - they have gov, big biz and media support
Goju – at 22:51 noone knows what the CFR will be of the Pandemic strain.
Right, but the numbers used above are the numbers commonly thrown around by WHO, CDC, and TPTB. I, personally, think it’ll be a lot worse, but the “best case” is bad enough to capture the imagination.
Perhaps it is because I grew up in hurricane country, but I have always believed it best to have at least 2 weeks worth of whatever on hand, and that in a time when there is no obvious reason to have it. When there’s a reason, such as now, I too think that 6 weeks would be much more prudent.
I dont know what Goju’s plans are but is anyone making a kick ass power point of all of this. I looked over all the presentations from the safe America thing and was not all that impressed. They seemed pretty weak. I think it would be really attention grabbing to put it on a cd to include with my local mass mailing. Cd’s are cheap anymore. A brief letter explaining whats on the cd and saying just take 10 mins to look at the slides. Or could we have a dramatic but standardized presentation that the fluwikiens could give to their local town govt’s? I would do it myself but power point is deff not my forte.
I just wrote up a piece as a draft press release for pandemic flu awareness week, but the arguments laid out in that article might be useful to help you construct your presentations. It’s here. Just don’t give out a verbatim version as yet cos if we end up using it as a press release, I don’t want anything pre-empting it, :-)
These are my thoughts for presenting to the town council. I do not want to educate them nor tell them how to do their jobs. This is a brief outline…
Longest time between pandemics in the last 300 years is 42 years it’s been 38 years since the last one.
What I don’t want to talk about: Birds increasing clusters with limited human to human transmission The ages most affected are the young between 10 and 20 years old The virus case fatality rate is between 50–80%
I want to talk about: Potential disruption to the delivery of food, water and medication Possible loss of power for an extended period Possible forced Sheltering In place for up to 3 months
How do we educate our residents on preparing their homes and families for SIP? Do not create a panic Do not scare people We recommend 2 weeks of supplies minimum. Each family chooses what they can do after given the facts and info on how to do it. Many families decide to have 3 months or more much like they have insurance on their house. This is what is recommended for a flu pandemic. Make it a family project
Town Prep Day Event Health and fitness celebrity Marina, mom of 3, will lead a fun day of “preparation fitness” – how well can you protect your family? Show what 1 week of water, food, toilet paper and other supplies for one person looks like Have info flyers available with general guidelines for what you need to SIP Have entertainment – High School and local talent Guest Speakers and local Celebs
Involve: Schools Library Churchs Social Clubs Professionals
Enterainment High School & local talent
Local Business: Markets Pharmacy Bank
Media coverage: local newspaper Local TV news possible Network TV
>Longest time between pandemics in the last 300 years is 42 years
>it is been 38 years since the last one.
this would only be meaningful, when there were some period in pandemics.
There is no evidence for this.
Do you know the main argument why Ford decided to vaccinate USA
against swine flu in 1976 ? It was a paper by Kilbourne arguing
for an 11-year period in pandemics.
This was refused later and swine flu was a political catastrophe
still in the memory of many politicians.
Now you are coming up with the same sort of argument, even
without any scientific paper you can refer to…
>I want to talk about: Potential disruption to the delivery of food,
>water and medication Possible loss of power for an extended period
>Possible forced Sheltering In place for up to 3 months
>How do we educate our residents on preparing their homes
>and families for SIP? Do not create a panic Do not scare
>people We recommend 2 weeks of supplies minimum. Each family
>chooses what they can do after given the facts and info on how
>to do it. Many families decide to have 3 months or more much
>like they have insurance on their house. This is what is
>recommended for a flu pandemic.
I don’t see that priority for storing water and food.
Why don’t you offer to store water and food and other
essentials in a community-storehouse against payment ?
More important IMO:
Get a plan how to work from home in a pandemic or get an
alternative job for the pandemic.
Learn how to desinfect, how to use masks.
Prepare a sick-room or a community-plan where to treat
the sick and separate it from the healthy. Also a quarantine
area for the suspect people. Plan and exercise how to control and
desinfect the streets. Make a plan which traffic restrictions
will be taken in a quarantine. (local Buses, streets,
controls, flu-tests,..)
Prepare the people to monitor their contacts and to report
immediately when they feel they might have caught it.
Make a plan for martial law, what measures might be taken
in a _severe_ pandemic. People are more likely to accept
it later, when they sign to it now.
these are all great ideas - but for another meeting. These people are supposed to know this stuff. I am interested in one thing - to get every house in my town prepped.
If they are open to further suggestion from me, i will be happy to provide them with a more detailed list of things they need to consider - I just saw in the local paper that they are having these meetings monthly and are beginning to take pandemic prepping seriously - the time is right for community action.
OnandAnon – at 22:45 “Red Cross Biomedical services is planning for at least a 10% CFR “
This would be very valuable information for a presentation. Has it been documented? I cannot find anything to support this while searching the web.
anonymous It is too bad that President Ford is not with us now to, in the minds of some, over-react on my families behalf today…instead we’ve got Dick at the World Health Organization.
I’m not quite sure why the Swine Flu preventative measures were considered a failure…was it because a pandemic didn’t eventually occur…seems to me that indicates the Swine Flu programs were a success.
I’ve done a lot of living since 1976 and maybe I should be thanking President Ford for that. /:0)
Also, wouldn’t it be funny if that vaccine that was so villified…somehow provides the only protection avaliable against H5N1…the irony of all ironies!!
but Goju, is it acceptible to achieve that goal with invalid arguments like “pandemics are periodic”, “not if but when”, or even (hypothetically) wrong numbers of H5N1-deaths or such ? The end justifies the means ?
Tom, that episode is commonly referred to as “the swine flu disaster”. Whether that’s justified or not is another question, but it is how politicians are remembering it. And that’s the danger with the current situation. Politicians might be afraid of a repition of the swine flu non-pandemic and a political damage from that.
Tom DVM – at 13:20
Also, wouldn’t it be funny if that vaccine that was so villified…somehow provides the only protection avaliable against H5N1…the irony of all ironies!!
--- Some interesting background on Swine Flu in 1976.
They thought it was 1918 all over again.
http://www.vaccinationnews.com/DailyNews/May2002/SwineFlusVaxLessons.htm
Goju, most people in an organization are followers, not leaders. Use that to your advantage. There is one piece of information on this thread that may grab town officials. Monotreme – at 10:06 September 8, 2006 said that some states pandemic plans are recommending 6 weeks of supplies (that may be the length of a wave), others are still at 3 days. If we can document which states are recommending 6 weeks, your work would be much easier.
For example, if you asked them how long we should be prepared for, they may likely say 3 days. Then you could follow up by asking ‘why 3 days???, the states of x, y and Z are telling their citizens to be prepared fo 6 weeks FOR PANFLU, why are only at 3 days?’
“Consider stockpiling enough consumable resources such as masks for the duration of a pandemic wave (6–8 weeks).” page 3–12 of the NYS Pandemic Influenza Plan
“Globally and nationally, a pandemic might last for more than a year, while pandemic waves in local communities may last five to ten weeks and recur in two or three waves.”
page 11–2 of the NYS Pandemic Influenza Plan
V. Activities by Pandemic Period
Interpandemic and Pandemic Alert Periods
State Health Department:
Promote awareness of activities that will allow people to “shelter in place” if necessary, e.g.:
Have a three-week supply of food and water and non-perishable foods in your home;
Have a well stocked first aid kit, including medications to reduce fever and pain, and a fever thermometer;
Have a wind up or battery operated radio or TV.
For what it is worth, the National Governor’s Association Pandemic Primer (you can find a link on the main page of the wiki proper unde rtip of the week) recommends to states to expect 8 to 12 weeks disruption per wave. They do not go so far as to say that individuals have supplies at home for that long. But to my mind, that time frame was significant.
(Hey, the US Congressional Budget Office “possible macroeconomic affects of an avian flu pandemic”, Dec 2005, has a “revised July 27, 2006″ -wonder what got revised??) (Still saying three-to-five months in any area, with next waves possible 1-to-3 months later.)
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6946/12-08-BirdFlu.pdf
Good luck Goju. I just spoke with a few more people local/state level today (and it may have done some good, but leaves me wanting to ask TomDVM if he has a secure barn in an undisclosed location he’d like to sell me).
The NAACHO guide for LHD (local health departments) pdf See Planning Assumptions is worth a peek.
ACM, I’d expect disruption between first and second wave, even if first wave is really mild. Based on fear of a worse second wave. And on poor performance after the first.
lugon, yeah. But the 8 to 12 weeks timeframe at least blows the “2 weeks” timeframe out of the water….
There seems to be a major disconnect in most people’s minds - they seem to actually believe that prepping for two weeks will see them through an 8 to 12 week wave of influenza - and they give no thought at all to the 2nd or 3rd wave. I’m no math genius, but c’mon, people - it doesn’t take a rocket scientist!
people learn by doing: if you prep you’re telling yourself this is for real
prepping = stocking up + community talk + many other things … there’s a nice outline waiting to be written
Goju, You are being a courageous risk taker in coming forth to present this information publically. What you have here is a classic example of a “teachable moment”. I hope you will drop the 3 days, 2 weeks of preps info. No need to even mention it. You do not have to do what Safe America is doing. Please use the 8 to 12 week wave timeframe and just say ‘you may want to prep accordingly, I know I am.’ Your purpose in doing this is to help people and we all admire you for that. Please do not spread false hope: TPTB are already doing that.
I remember you saying that you are only as prepped as your neighbors. Please encourage your neighbors to be prepped for 8–12 weeks. Your service to your community might be your service to yourself. Some of your community members will hear you…and do as you recommend.
What would you want your fluwikie friends to tell you? The truth or the half (or 1/10 truth) truth? Please be VERY brave, Goju. Your leadership is teaching the rest of us some important ways of communicating.
I wish you all the best.
I so much appreciate all you folks have done. I am changing my tactics.
I will start with my story of H5N1 discovery June 2005 and what i learned
1 - 1997 - 13 people in Hong Kong infected, 6 die, Mice injected died within 24 hours - when trying to make vaccine, chicken eggs died - Dr Webster, world reknown Flu expert says it the nastiest virus he has ever seen.
They kill almost 2 million chicken averting a pandemic
2 - 2003 - people get sick in Vietnam and Thailand …? people get sick - 50% die 3 - 2005 - Qinghai incident - H5N1 seems to have mutated - first time wild migratory birds die from a flu virus 4 - watch as the virus spreads to kazakastn, mongolia, russia, mid east, africa, europe 5 - 2006 - multiple clusters in Indonesia with limited human to human spread - CRF 79%
I will show them the human cases chart which shows an increase of cases from 2005 - 2006
As a kid, I used to watch those 1950 monster movies, well this H5N1 is a real monster
6 - i have read the US, NYS, NYC and CT - they are based on a 2.5% CFR derived from the historical Spanish Flu of 1918 They are based on the assumption that we will have an effective vaccine - there will be no vaccine for at least 6 months we could be well into the 2nd wave by then
7- I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids dont show up to school they alert the health dept. H5N1 is killing the young _____ percent of deaths are under the age of _____
I will show them the age chart
In my town there are 3500 school kids - if 10% are home sick, and cfr is 10%, then we will have 35 deaths before the health dept is notified. That is unacceptable to me.
Many experts have said that when H5H1 becomes Pandemic, the CFR will come down. As we can see, the CFR from 2003 to 2006 has gone from 50% to 79% and that is with intensive medical care in hospitals well equipt to treat H5N1 patients. If H5N1 does not fit the planned 2.5 % CFR the plan will not work.
So what can we do?
In 1918 Philidelphia had a horrendous death rate - in 2 weeks 14,000 people died. In St Louis there were very few deaths
The difference was in how the city gov handled things. Where Phili held a big parade in support of the war and did not enforce social distancing, St Louis acted quickly and closed schools, churches… etc.
I will them show them the chats of this from the CDC presentation from the Conference (availavle on www.mipodcast.com/H5N1 - safe america - koona PPT)
The only thing we can do is prepare our residents for SIP for upwards of 3 months. Long enough for the first wave to pass our community and hopefull give the government enough time to regroup and get food, water and power distribution systems running again.
Anything short of that is handing our residents a death sentence.
I will then give them the Gunnison CO report on what they did to escape a high death toll.
Comments?
REPOSTED with better formating
I so much appreciate all you folks have done. I am changing my tactics.
I will start with my story of H5N1 discovery June 2005 and what i learned
1 - 1997 - 13 people in Hong Kong infected, 6 die, Mice injected died within 24 hours - when trying to make vaccine, chicken eggs died - Dr Webster, world reknown Flu expert says it the nastiest virus he has ever seen. They kill almost 2 million chicken averting a pandemic
2 - 2003 - people get sick in Vietnam and Thailand …? people get sick - 50% die
3 - 2005 - Qinghai incident - H5N1 seems to have mutated - first time wild migratory birds die from a flu virus
4 - watch as the virus spreads to kazakastn, mongolia, russia, mid east, africa, europe
5 - 2006 - multiple clusters in Indonesia with limited human to human spread - CRF 79%
I will show them the human cases chart which shows an increase of cases from 2005 - 2006
As a kid, I used to watch those 1950 monster movies, well this H5N1 is a real monster
6 - i have read the US, NYS, NYC and CT Pandemic Plans- they are based on a 2.5% CFR derived from the historical Spanish Flu of 1918 They are based on the assumption that we will have an effective vaccine - there will be no vaccine for at least 6 months we could be well into the 2nd wave by then
7- I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids dont show up to school they alert the health dept. H5N1 is killing the young _____ percent of deaths are under the age of _____
I will show them the age chart
In my town there are 3500 school kids - if 10% are home sick, and cfr is 10%, then we will have 35 deaths before the health dept is notified. That is unacceptable to me.
Many experts have said that when H5H1 becomes Pandemic, the CFR will come down. As we can see, the CFR from 2003 to 2006 has gone from 50% to 79% and that is with intensive medical care in hospitals well equipt to treat H5N1 patients. If H5N1 does not fit the planned 2.5 % CFR the plan will not work.
So what can we do?
In 1918 Philidelphia had a horrendous death rate - in 2 weeks 14,000 people died. In St Louis there were very few deaths The difference was in how the city gov handled things. Where Phili held a big parade in support of the war and did not enforce social distancing, St Louis acted quickly and closed schools, churches… etc.
I will them show them the chats of this from the CDC presentation from the Conference (availavle on www.mipodcast.com/H5N1 - safe america - koona PPT)
The only thing we can do is prepare our residents for SIP for upwards of 3 months. Long enough for the first wave to pass our community and hopefull give the government enough time to regroup and get food, water and power distribution systems running again.
Anything short of that is handing our residents a death sentence.
I will then give them the Gunnison CO report on what they did to escape a high death toll.
Comments?
Fix from above
I will them show them the charts of this from the CDC presentation from the Conference (availavle on www.mipodcast.com/H5N1 - safe america - koona PPT)
Goju,
You’ve left some “___” blanks above. Maybe leave them in the piece of paper you give them, and they would fill it in when they listen to you?
They might try their own replies before you speak.
Just a thought - maybe for some other oportunity.
i was hoping someone could fill them in for me? anyone know the numbers off the top of their heads?
I found the info…
1 - 1997 - 18 people in Hong Kong infected, 6 die, Mice injected with the virus died within 24 hours - when trying to make vaccine, chicken eggs died - Dr Webster, world renown Flu expert says it the nastiest virus he has ever seen. They kill almost 2 million chickens averting a pandemic
2 - 2004 – 44 people get sick in Vietnam and Thailand and 32 die.
3 - 2005 - Qinghai incident - H5N1 seems to have mutated - first time wild migratory birds die from a flu virus
4 – I watched as began to Birds die in Kazakastn, Mongolia, Russia, Middle East, Africa, Europe and as new human cases occurred in Azerbejian, Cambodia, China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, South Korea, Turkey
5 - 2006 - multiple clusters in Indonesia with limited human to human spread - CRF 79%
Hand Out - I will show them the human cases chart which shows an increase of cases from 2005 - 2006
As a kid, I used to watch those 1950 monster movies, well this H5N1 is a real monster
6 - I have read the US, NYS, NYC and CT Pandemic Plans- they are based on a 2.5% CFR derived from the historical Spanish Flu of 1918 They are based on the assumption that we will have an effective vaccine - there will be no vaccine for at least 6 months we could be well into the 2nd wave by then
7- I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids dont show up to school they alert the health dept. H5N1 is killing the young - 70% of all fatalities were 25 years old or less. More than half are below 20 years old.
Hand Out - I will show them the age chart
In my town there are 3500 school kids - if 10% are home sick, and cfr is 10%, then we will have 35 deaths before the health dept is notified. That is unacceptable to me.
Many experts have said that when H5H1 becomes Pandemic, the CFR will come down. As we can see, the CFR from 2003 to 2006 has gone from 50% to 79% and that is with intensive medical care in hospitals well equipped to treat H5N1 patients. If H5N1 does not fit the planned 2.5 % CFR the plan will not work.
So what can we do?
In 1918 Philidelphia had a horrendous death rate - in 2 weeks 14,000 people died.
In St Louis there were very few deaths. The difference was in how the city gov handled things. Where Philadelphia held a big parade in support of the war and did not enforce social distancing, St Louis acted quickly and closed schools, churches… etc.
Hand Out - I will them show them the charts of this from the CDC presentation from the Conference
The only thing we can do is to prepare our residents for SIP for upwards of 3 months. Long enough for the first wave to pass our community and hopefully give the government enough time to regroup and get food, water and power distribution systems running again.
Anything short of that is handing our residents a death sentence.
Hand Out - I will then give them the Gunnison CO report on what they did to escape a high death toll.
Infectious Disease as an Evolutionary Paradigm Joshua Lederberg Sackler Foundation Scholar, Rockefeller University, New York, New York, USA
We are engaged in a type of race, enmeshing our ecologic circumstances with evolutionary changes in our predatory competitors. To our advantage, we have wonderful new technology; we have rising life expectancy curves. To our disadvantage, we have crowding; we have social, political, economic, and hygienic stratification. We have crowded together a hotbed of opportunity for infectious agents to spread over a significant part of the population. Affluent and mobile people are ready, willing, and able to carry afflictions all over the world within 24 hours’ notice. This condensation, stratification, and mobility is unique, defining us as a very different species from what we were 100 years ago. We are enabled by a different set of technologies. But despite many potential defenses-vaccines, antibiotics, diagnostic tools-we are intrinsically more vulnerable than before, at least in terms of pandemic and communicable diseases. We could imaginably adapt in a Darwinian fashion, but the odds are stacked against us. We cannot compete with microorganisms whose populations are measured in exponents of 1012, 1014, 1016 over periods of days. Darwinian natural selection has led to the evolution of our species but at a terrible cost. If we were to rely strictly on biologic selection to respond to the selective factors of infectious disease, the population would fluctuate from billions down to perhaps millions before slowly rising again. Therefore, our evolutionary capability may be dismissed as almost totally inconsequential. In the race against microbial genes, our best weapon is our wits, not natural selection on our genes.
“Infectious disease is one of the few genuine adventures left in the world. The dragons are all dead and the lance grows rusty in the chimney corner… About the only sporting proposition that remains unimpaired by the relentless domestication of a once free-living human species is the war against those ferocious little fellow creatures, which lurk in dark corners and stalk us in the bodies of rats, mice and all kinds of domestic animals; which fly and crawl with the insects, and waylay us in our food and drink and even in our love.” -Hans Zinsser, Rats, Lice and History’ (1934) [courtesy Alison Jacobson]
To all:
[We cannot compete with microorganisms whose populations are measured in exponents of 1012, 1014, 1016 over periods of days.]
The numbers are Ten to the Twelth power etc…
This could be some help. Joshua Lederberg is a Nobel laureate.
Goju, thank you, I like it!!!
Mr. White, your post sure gives us a lot to think about.
About vacines at the Middle School - Our state has a new law that says the state can comandeer any building that they deem infected with infectious disease. If they use the schools for vaccinations or sick wards chances are the school willl be closed down for quite some time after this is all over. I also heard, and this statement could be wrong, that once an ambulance is used to transport an avian victim that the ambulance can no longer be used because there is no way to disinfect the whole ambulance. I would love to hear a counter on that one if anyone knows the truth
Excellent, Goju !
Birdie Kate, I think I saw somewhere something about, “pick a building for pandemic care that can be burned afterwards without being too missed”. Can’t recall if it was offical or unofficial recommendation. (And it’s 2:15 here. Didn’t see the swans’ feet; guess I can go back to bed.)
Besides, if it happens before the next 5 or 6 years, we probably have no capacity to make anything for the public; they have nothing to distribute for pandemic influenza. They need to stop telling the public about their vaccination handout plans and tell the public about how long pandemics last.
Goju, your presentation sounds excellent. All the best to you!
Revised to include Safe America Conference info
Wilton Pandemic Preparation – 9/22/06
During early June of last year I read an article about birds dying in China. I began reading about H5N1 – the Bird Flu. This is what I learned….
1 - 1997 - 18 people in Hong Kong infected, 6 die. Dr Webster, world renown Flu expert says it the nastiest virus he has ever seen. They kill almost 2 million chickens averting a pandemic
2 - 2004 – 44 people get sick in Vietnam and Thailand and 32 died.
3 - 2005 - Qinghai incident - H5N1 seems to have mutated - first time wild migratory birds die from a flu virus. The problem is that migratory birds migrate. Some feared that infected birds would spread the virus, and this is exactly what happened next.
4 – I saw H5N1 spread to 50 new countries in a short 8 months. I watched as began to Birds die in Kazakastn, Mongolia, Russia, Middle East, Africa, Europe and as new human cases occurred in Azerbejian, Cambodia, China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, South Korea, Turkey
5 - 2006 - multiple clusters in Indonesia with limited human to human spread and what we am here to talk about is the human2human form of this virus, a virus that is as easily communicable, and as undetectable in the contagious phases, as your common cold or flu virus, but with a kill rate at present of about 80%. To date – 275 confirmed cases, 147 deaths
Hand Out - I will show them the human cases chart which shows an increase of cases from 2005 - 2006
As a kid, I used to watch those 1950 monster movies, well this H5N1 is a real monster
Safe America Conference NYC on Sept. 6, 2006.
Safe America is a 12 year old company encouraging people to prepare for emergencies. They have partnered with many large corps now for the prep for BF
The conference was Business focused
It was held in NBC-TV’s Studio where they shoot SNL They are holding similar events in Major and secondary cities
31 speakers all together Nabarro Speaks - Head of UN Influenza fight
“H5N1 is the nastiest virus ever seen” Talked about cats, dogs infected and limited H2H Showed an interactive map of H5N1 spread. Emphasized how fast it is spreading this year Probably many more infections and deaths than reported Inefficient H2H in N Sumatra There will be a pandemic – may be H5N1 could be like 1918 or worse Once it goes efficient H2H – BOOM it will be too late to prep Levels 4, 5 & 6 could happen very fast UN asked WHO to go to level 4 months ago – they refused – he said they were right to refuse Restriction of movement may be necessary Possible threats – Rule of law, security, continuance of governments Must engage the public Life goes on he said – must maintain functioning There is NO news from China Indonesia is a mess & not cooperating Going to Indo next week to see what happened w/ tami blanket – he didn’t know results yet of that & roadblocks Key people ARE supplied Africa is a BIG concern He is exhausted and very concerned Right now we have “God given time” to prepare
Expect disruptions of
telecommunications Electricity Water expect - 30–50% worker outages maintenance and part supply was biggest long term problem Pre-position supplies. How could Biz lower their staffing needs to 50% - Must – cross train workers Big empasis on not planning but DOING – moving to ACTION NOW and tweek the plan as you go Said this is NOT 1918 – medical, population, society, politics are different -–JIT delivery system All comes down to taking action NOW Plan for leadership continuity Teach people how to use those supplies – used the example of N-95 mask usage for a bearded workers – not for public – for emergency workers Must purchase PPE equipment NOW – masks , gloves, How do u pay for voluntary or forced quarentine of workers many other topics covered.
I spoke with a rep from HESS oil. She said the wells, refineries and shipping all were 24/7 with multiple levels of backup both in parts and manpower – they are confident they can ride it out BUT… the problem they are having is further down the line at the regional and local level. They can’t guarentee that the oil will reach the pumps and if it did, that the pumps would work. That was an opinion echoed through the day. They are VERY aware that if they screw up, Power, Food, Water are all in big trouble.
6 - I have read the US, NYS, NYC and CT Pandemic Plans- they are based on a 2.5% Case Fatality Rate derived from the historical Spanish Flu of 1918 They are based on the assumption that we will have an effective vaccine - there will be no vaccine for at least 6 months we could be well into the 2nd wave by then. All of the plans discuss the possible isolation and quarantine of infected people and their families.
Hand Out - I will show them the age chart
7- H5N1 is killing the young - 70% of all fatalities were 25 years old or less. More than half are below 20 years old.
I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids don’t show up to school they alert the health dept.
In Wilton there are approx. 3500 school kids - if 10% are home sick, and cfr is 10%, then we will have 35 deaths before the health dept is notified. That is unacceptable to me.
Many experts have said that when H5H1 becomes Pandemic, the CFR will come down. As we can see, the CFR from 2003 to 2006 has gone from 50% to 80% and that is with intensive medical care in hospitals well equipped to treat H5N1 patients. If H5N1 does not fit the planned 2.5 % CFR the plan will not work.
So what can we do?
Hand Out – Phili vs. St Louis Graph
In 1918 Philidelphia had a horrendous death rate - in 2 weeks 14,000 people died.
In St Louis there were very few deaths. The difference was in how the city gov handled things. Where Philadelphia held a big parade in support of the war and did not enforce social distancing, St Louis acted quickly and closed schools, churches… etc.
Hand Out – Pandemic Wave and intervention Chart
Early intervention before or when the first cases appear,can spread out infections over time, giving our health care facilities time to operate effectively and lower fatalities. As they did in St. Louis in 1918.
So what can we do? Mr. Levitt Secretary of Health & Human Services has said we, the local communities, are on our own. We all know that now.
There are only 2 things we can do to reduce illness and death. Prepare our town as best we can and help our residents learn how to prepare for SIP for upwards of 3 months, long enough for the first wave to pass our community and hopefully give the government enough time to regroup and get food, water and power distribution systems running again.
Anything short of that is handing our residents a death sentence.
Hand Out - I will then give them the Gunnison CO report on what they had no infections and no deaths
Our Mission
How do we educate our residents on preparing their homes and families for SIP? Do not create a panic Do not scare people We recommend 2 weeks of supplies minimum. Realistic senario is that the local flu wave will last 6–8 weeks Each family chooses what they can do after given the facts and info on how to do it. Many families decide to have 3 months or more much like they have insurance on their house. This is what is recommended for a flu pandemic. Make it a family project
Town Prep Day Event Marina will lead a fun day of “preparation fitness” – how well can you protect your family? Show what 1 week of water, food, toilet paper and other supplies for one person looks like for the 2 week prep, bag of rice, a bag of beans, and a bottle of oil for a longer duration event. Have info flyers available with general guidelines for what you need to SIP Have entertainment – High School and local talent Guest Speakers and local Celebs
Involve: Library Churchs Social Clubs Professionals Vets High School & local talent Local Business: Food markets Hardware stores
too long. Wilton people will start yawning. Maybe Goju should better leave Wilton and start her own community.
worst-case scenario (i’ve seen it):
so maybe you want to devote some time to look into their receptors: what do they care about, really? Tell them to specifically focus on someone they care about.
Goju - I hope we can in time have your presentation and test it in many places, in order to gain experience. You know that’s what many “bad guy” groups do: attack, learn as a community, attack again.
Thanks!
The presentation takes 10 minutes. They are focused on Pandemic planning now. They do not have the facts.
There was a 19 year old boy who lost his life last week from this town. It was very sad. i will tie it into the loss of any kids due to the Costa Pandemic Plan. see below
Hand Out - I will show them the age chart
7- H5N1 is killing the young - 70% of all fatalities were 25 years old or less. More than half are below 20 years old.
I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids don’t show up to school they alert the health dept.
In Wilton there are approx. 4000 school kids in school - if 10% are home sick, and CFR is 10%, then we will have 40 deaths before the health dept is notified. Even if the CFR drops to 1% it will mean 4 students will die before action is taken. I believe even one kid’s death is a burden to great to bear as we so sadly saw last week honoring Nicholas Madaras.
OK with the age-chart. Include also the age-chart from 1918. Gunnison was an exception, very few such places. The exact schoolplan can be adapted once H5N1 breaks out in Asia. What has to be done now ?
go here for charts and Gunnison Doc. Still tweeking the presentation doc
Goju has the advantage of being in a town that is close enough to a major metro area that it has been through some major training in the area of bio-terrorism, nuclear events, etc. They’re bringing to the table a lot of knowledge that many communities may not have. Involving the mayor, chief of fire and police, public health, and bordering town representatives shows that they are open and ready to hear more.
Not every town will be like this. Presentations have to be geared to the level of knowledge and training that any town possesses. I think Goju’s presentation and town are interesting because they may prove to be a fine case study of a town that could, with luck, become ideally prepared for a pandemic. We need such models to work from, to see just what can potentially be attained and hopefully then demonstrated to other communities as a positive example. I wish Goju much luck in that. He’s certainly put extraordinary effort into this project.
Goju It may be too late in the game for your 9/22 presentation, but perhaps you can glean some helpful info from my informal research and observations I posted in late June. You can find this in the Opinion section of the main fluwiki under Surfer’s Indroduction and Opinion. Best to you in your efforts to help.
let me add this to anon_22 ‘s list above
Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions
Closed for length. New thread is here
Last relevant post copied to new thread