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Forum: Tony Snow Low Path H 5 N 1 in Michigan

14 August 2006

Clawdia – at 10:38

Tony Snow, giving a briefing in the White House, made the following statement just minutes ago:

“USDA and Interior, at the top of the hour, will be announcing that routine surveillance has indicated the possible presence of an H5N1 avian influenza virus in wild mute swans in Michigan; however, this is not what we are accustomed to hearing about from Asia. At this point, they believe (emphasis his) this is a strain of low pathogenicity, similar to strains that have been seen before in North America. It does not appear to be related to the highly pathenogenic strain that has spread through birds in Asia, Europe, and Africa. For further information, I would direct you to the briefing by Interior and Agriculture Dept. officials, who will be talking about that in just a few minutes.”

This is an accurate transcription.

Malachi – at 10:43

I just heard theat also

Kim – at 10:53

Here’s a link

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/08/14/D8JG8NBG1.html

Malachi – at 10:53

heard that…..Michigander here and quaking in my slippers.

Malachi – at 10:56

Doesn’t say where it was found.I would like to know that.

Commonground – at 10:57

Thanks!!!

Cygnet – at 11:15

Sigh. Anyone want some chickens? Cheap. Free. No point in feeding them now because there won’t be a market to sell them in the fall when it cools off here and I’d normally start selling birds. Regardless of if this is high path or not you KNOW it’s going to be all over the papers …

Hopefully they’ve actually sequenced it and they’re not claiming that it’s low path on the evidence of live birds. Swans are very resistant to AI.

Kim – at 11:22

Cygnet, don’t give away your chickens yet, looks like this is being played down by the media. CNN has made a brief announcement on their TV show (nothing yet on their website), and Fox has said nothing yet (website or TV). About all CNN said was that it’s nothing to worry about, that it takes a week for authorities to determine if it’s low-path or high-path H5N1 (so it’s been known about for a week), and it simply shows that authorities are really keeping tabs on things. Draw your own conclusions.

Tom DVM – at 11:22

Low path. H5N1 was found in several locations in Canada last year. It is always around and is nothing to worry about.

Don’t worry Cygnet. You will have a market for your chickens…this is old news in North America and won’t have staying power as also occured last fall.

However, Chinese migratory ducks are in North American flyways in quite high numbers all the time…so we should expect Asian H5N1 at some point.

worrywart – at 11:24

Don’t all bird have to be culled even with the low path H5N1?? As supposedly it turns into high path when left to run rampant??

anonymous – at 11:37

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208262,00.html

Malachi – at 11:43

How can I find out where this happened?Where they found the birds?

NEMO – at 11:48

worrywart: No, it doesn’t turn into high path. It’s a completely different beast.

Malachi – at 11:52

Cygnet…I would help you can your chicken meat if you needed….

worrywart – at 12:03

Why would the discovery of this Low path H5N1 result in a White House press release and not the others in Pa and new Jersey, especially in light of the fact that the article on the news thread claims the N1 has not been identified yet and test results will take 2 weeks?

Clawdia – at 12:14

Worrywart - that’s exactly what I keep wondering.

AD – at 12:23

So, what do you really feel about this? What are your thoughts?

History Lover – at 12:57

I always believe about half of what our government tells us - regardless of which party is in power. Then I take that half and read between the lines. I then take the first letter of each remaining word and try to break the code. How the heck do they know for sure that this strain is not related to the “highly pathenogenic” strain from Asia/Europe/Africa? I am definitely not reassured.

Science Teacher – at 13:23

LPAI H5N1 viruses can mutate into HPAI. Here is an older article on this from CIDRAP that explains the process involved. It can be viewed here:http://tinyurl.com/lbuqb

I find it ‘interesting’ that a few weeks ago the U.S. announced that it would beef up it’s survellience for H5N1 across the country. Could this be related?

OKbirdwatcherat 14:21

worrywart and Clawdia - This seems to be something of a non-event and yet we have the White House press secretary releasing info about it. Sort of like more “don’t worry, be happy”. Has this ever been done before? If not, then I’m really puzzled (or should that be concerned?)

Clawdia – at 14:50

I do not recall that it has ever been done before with regard to H5N1. I was puzzled all morning - this afternoon, I’ve moved to concerned.

The fact that LP can mutate into HP doesn’t make me feel any better, either.

I’m seeing a bit of contradictory information from a couple of sources, too.

ANON-YYZ – at 14:53

Science Teacher – at 13:23

It’s anticipating the migratory season. I wouldn’t assume it’s sinister.

Science Teacher – at 14:56

Anon-yyz, Agreed.

MrWhite 42 – at 15:03

Malachi – at 11:43 How can I find out where this happened?Where they found the birds? http://tinyurl.com/kk9tl

Reported U.S. bird flu probably no human threat, feds say

Monday, August 14, 2006; Posted: 1:31 p.m. EDT (17:31 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists have discovered the possible presence of bird flu in the United States — in wild swans near the banks of Lake Erie

 — but it does not appear to be the worrisome strain that the government has long feared.

Routine tests on two seemingly healthy wild mute swans in Michigan suggest they might have the H5N1 virus; confirmatory tests are under way. But other testing has ruled out that it could the so-called highly pathogenic version of that virus that has ravaged poultry in Asia, and killed at least 138 people worldwide, the Agriculture Department announced Monday.

April – at 15:17

Cygnet – at 11:15 Swans are very resistant to AI.

But weren’t the swans dropping like flies earlier this year with the bird flu in Europe?

Science Teacher – at 15:28

Birds were tested on 8/806 at Mouille State game farm in Monroe county, on the coast of Lake Erie. http://tinyurl.com/za5s6

Bon in MI – at 15:31

I am just happy the swans were tested! After all the illegal meat in the Troy warehouse raid wasn’t tested. Maybe that is why this testing was made so public.

I just feel bad that my house kittys will not be allowed even to go out on the porch now. It’s getting to late in the year and the migration will start soon.

Edna Mode – at 16:14

AD – at 12:23 So, what do you really feel about this? What are your thoughts?

Wait and see. Even if it is HP H5N1 in birds, are you going to start your SIP this minute?

Either it’s HP or LP AI. 50/50 odds.

Two weeks is a long time to wait for results, but if there is something else going on here, it will be very hard to keep out of the media the way we Americans like to flap our jaws and roll our camcorders for our local news outlets.

Grace RN – at 16:22

It disconcerting to me that swans are involved; they seem to be the species frequently killed by H5N1. Are these swans sick, dead or healthy looking?

I know testing in the US is adding H5N1-good mechanism but only if the disease enters the US via birds….

Grace RN – at 16:23

From the Fox story: “Routine tests on two seemingly healthy wild mute swans in Michigan suggest they might have the H5N1 virus; confirmatory tests are under way.”

Hope they are indeed noninfected.

cactus az – at 16:26
  Sorry for the swans, they are elegant,mean birds.

 But, I think our real concerns should be directed towards those big silver birds that enter our country every day.That`s how it`s going to start. IMHO.
Retired ParamedicMIat 19:05

the birds were found in the Pt. Moule game area in luna pier michigan Monroe county. My back yard. this spot is about 18 miles from me. We’ve had h5n1 low pa in Mi three times in the past. MI state university Biolab did the initial testing then passed it along to the USDA. If all is to be believed, it is much ado about nothing. But they are saying at least the “System” worked. We only found the diseased swans because of a recently funded study to try to get rid of the non native specie of swan. Who knows how many we have had in the past. If you never test, you never have sick birds.

Northstar – at 19:15

The swans were part of a thinning of the population, so I assume they are already dead. A lab at U of M is going to inject chicks with the isolated virus(ii); if a certain percentage die it will be classified HPAI.

janetn – at 19:24
janetn – at 19:29

This isnt a big deal. The birds were healthy and part of a yearly culling. They were tested at MSU and found to have the LOW path H5. It was picked up because of the increased surviliance, its been around for years. BTW the swans were in a preserve in the southeastern part of the state. Makes me feel good knowing that testing is really being done. Id trust MSUs testing, if they say low path then you can take it to the bank

urdar-Norge – at 19:34

I thught that H5N1 was high pat, and H5 low.. Am I missing somthing here? two verisons of H5N1?

anon_22 – at 19:37

urdar-Norge – at 19:34

H5N1 can be either low path or high path. I just did an explanation on the News thread, FYI.

urdar-Norge – at 19:41

thx. so that means it shold be called H5N1 LP and H5N1 HP when confirmed.. code is not my strongest side, not on computers and not in nature .D

anon_22 – at 19:43

urdar-Norge – at 19:41 “thx. so that means it shold be called H5N1 LP and H5N1 HP when confirmed.. code is not my strongest side, not on computers and not in nature .D

yes, LPAI or HPAI.

Notice this only refers to its pathogenicity in avian hosts, not humans.

OKbirdwatcherat 20:04

“This isnt a big deal.” …its been around for years.

So I’m still wondering…WHY did it even warrant a mention from the *White House press secretary*??? Have similar findings in the past been announced by the White House? Don’t they have really important issues to talk about? Still don’t get it.

15 August 2006

DebPat 05:41

Our local mid-michigan just did a 2 sentence story on it and I quote- even if it had been the “bad” virus it would not have been a concern to public health safety. WTF????

DebPat 05:43

opps- should have said our local mid-michigan news, I guess I am just stunned at what I heard.

Malachi – at 07:25

shhhhh…go back to sleep people….nothing to see here.

Patch – at 10:55

There is nothing to worry about here. It is good they are watching so closely. Low path H5N1 has been around North America for awhile, from Canada, to Mexico, I believe (if I understood Dr. Butcher correctly).

I’m sure they are addressing it, simply to calm unrealistic fears. It is the delicate balancing act of keeping people informed and keeping reality in check.

Path Forward – at 12:11

Regarding the USDA’s August 14 announcement that a non-Asian H5N1, apparently low pathogenic avian flu virus was found in 2 Michigan swans:

It is hard to get enough of the details from the press reports, but fortunately the full transcript of the US Department of Agriculture / US Department of the Interior August 14 press briefing is on the USDA website at: http://tinyurl.com/hy3b3

The briefing has a much better description of the testing process than we ever heard regarding the New Jersey Live Bird Market episode last spring.

And overall, the briefing is unusually candid and thorough about details of the testing process. (This opinion is coming from a pretty regular critic of the USDA, as some of you know!)

One of the mildly amusing key messages from the briefing seems to be the genuinely true fact that it is not surprising that H5N1 has been found in the U.S. There are nine instances of officials using various versions of “not surprised,” “no surprise,” etc.

It is clear, but unstated, that the press briefing was held because the officials knew that some reporters and some members of the public would have an “oh my god” surprised reaction to ANY strain of H5N1 being found in the U.S. Holding the briefing to announce this, and to help everyone put it in a proper perspective, was a no-brainer.

But it would have helped if they had said that was why they were holding the briefing.

The officials still did not address one of my ongoing concerns: Given that the local Michigan branch of the National Animal Health Lab network found, sometime between August 9 and August 12, that the preliminary PCR-test showed the swans’ hemagglutinin was H5, why was no public announcement made for several more days, when the National Veterinary Services Lab found that the neuraminidase was N1 AND that the genetic sequences were not similar to the “Asian” H5N1 virus?

The answer is implied in the question: They wanted to get all their ducks in a row (swans, in this case), to minimize public alarm. I still assert that the time between the preliminary identification of the hemagglutinin as H5, and the August 14 announcement that it was H5N1 but not “the bad H5N1,” is time that farmers may have used to increase biosecurity and reduce poultry movement, in case it had, indeed, turned out to be “the bad H5N1.” It still looks like managing public alarm trumps managing biosecurity when these episodes happen.

For a very clear description of the different types of H5N1, see CIDRAP’s “H5N1 Avian Flu Viruses: What’s in a Name?” at: http://tinyurl.com/lbuqb

Thinlina – at 16:32

So, do we know how large part of the Asian H5N1 has been LP? Maybe almost all, ah? Maybe not?

Thinlina – at 16:33

And how many angels can dance on a pin point? How many degrees of death in the population of H5N1 virus?

Thinlina – at 23:34

16 August 2006

TRay75at 21:27

Just wondering, as I see geese and swans on either side of my death-trap high-rise everyday in South jersey, how long does it take a swan to fly 400 to 600 miles? Meaning of course in the time it took to run these test how far could these “hopefully low-path” birds’ buddies have traveled east toward the PA/NY/NJ population centers, or west toward IL/IN/WI?

Flyways are not thin black lines on maps, more like an air-brushed line because there are no route markers to things that can fly without radar, transponders, or FAA clearance. Of those three “amigos’ in the lake across the street (our name for 3 geese, one white, one brown, one black) one looked a little ragged recently, but all the bread and goodies the kids feed them has kept them going with little need of feeding this summer.

Then there are the ducks in the same lakes, and not so many miles away poultry farms. If the USDA didn’t make some fast comments I could see a sudden drop in US Northeastern poultry consumption, and then the race to “inform” the public would have been on, racing right beside the news choppers to show the culling operations.

I’d stay tuned on this one folks. The administration had to go public before someone inside one of the labs told the wrong worried spouse or bowling buddy what was on necropsy table the other day, and they went to the local news outlet’s “News Tip” link with a lead for some up and coming reporter to be assigned to dig for the facts rather than being fed a party line.

I honestly think that TPTB think they are doing the right thing, but the trust factor after 9/11, Katrina, and the sudden “Code Red” for Atlantic airlines has eroded a lot of faith. By the way, by taking so long to move through the security lines, has anyone noted any TSA members using infra-red thermometer “guns” as passengers are moving along? I don’t fly much, and especially right now, but I’d think if there was some under-lying concern that you may see those little gadgets come out of the equipment rooms and passenger boarding slowed to give time to let the TSA make sure the body temps are not over 101 F (either from a suicide bomber under stress or a sick person “soldiering on” to keep an appointment at the risk of fellow passengers).

Security in one area can sometimes improve security in others. I am definitely not a conspiracy theorist, but indeed coincidental both developments happened so close together.

23 September 2006

closed by Monotreme – at 00:05
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