Summary from Indonesia Outbreak tracking as at 18 September 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 25 | 77 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 36 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 80 | 31 | 135 |
(From WHO as at 14 Sep – latest update on their site)
Total human cases worldwide 246, deaths 144 (2006 – 99 with 66 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
Asia-Pacific Region
United Kingdom
United States of America
General
Link to news thread for 18 September (link News Reports for Sept 18 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
Tighter targeting in the war on bird flu (United Kingdom)
LORNA MARSH 19 September 2006 06:00
Screening of wildfowl for the deadly bird flu virus will continue in Norfolk and Suffolk despite the government’s decision to lift blanket testing across most of the United Kingdom, it was announced yesterday.
A revised strategy to screen wild birds for the presence of the deadly H5N1 avian influenza strain will now only include sampling for the disease in areas which have higher numbers of migrating waterfowl and larger poultry populations. More at http://tinyurl.com/lv4la
On September 19 06 00:44 WIB North Sumatra could 2.5 Million Flu vaccines Burung Medan, was on the alert Online
2.5 Million doses of the bird flu vaccine were distributed by the government of the centre to North Sumatra.
However, that just was received by 500 thousand doses, whereas the rest will follow two or three today, said the Head of Sector public relations Pemprovsu Drs ML Tobing to the reporter after accepting the explanation from Wakadis Livestock Breeding Provsu drh Tetty Erlina Lubis MSi, on Monday (18/9).
In the meantime, totalling 16 regencies/the city was in North Sumatra attacked by the bird flu virus and totalling 76.
514 tails of the poultry/the chicken was destroyed in a mass fashion.
“Finally, totalling 3.”
In the 000 ‘s the chicken was destroyed in Humbahas following the discovery of the chicken died suddenly in the area.
-snip-
Kadis Livestock Breeding and Wakadis as well as the related official in the Livestock Breeding Service when will be confirmed concerning the handling of the case of bird flu or the number of poultries was destroyed, was not in his office in the Medan-Binjai road.
“Whatever we tau his development, that the senior official’s affair in this office,” said the staff in the Livestock Breeding Service.
However Information from Tobing explained, the number of poultries was destroyed this not yet including in the Humbang Hasundutan Regency.
While the compensation cost was to the appropriate citizen maintained by the government of Rp.
12.
500 per the tail.
His side also accepted newest information that is in the Estuary of the Cape, the shavings Regency was found by the chicken died.
However, till at this time was not yet learnt the cause of the death of the chicken, because of his sample still was sent in the
http://tinyurl.com/fjyg4
Pacific urged to improve bird flu plans
Sep 19, 2006
The World Health Organization (WHO) urged small Pacific islands nations to do more to prepare emergency plans for a possible bird flu outbreak and human influenza pandemic, warning no nation could be immune.
-snip-
He said no country could consider itself immune, and a potential pandemic could spread quickly to remote nations due to the speed of modern transport.
“It will travel at the speed of a 747 jet,” Cordingley told Reuters from Auckland. “We’re asking everybody to take precautions.”
http://tinyurl.com/hzbmj
Avian influenza – situation in Iraq - update 5 http://tinyurl.com/p87sj
19 September 2006
The Ministry of Health in Iraq has retrospectively confirmed the country’s third case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case, a 3-year-old boy, was hospitalized in Baghdad on 15 March 2006. His illness was mild and he fully recovered.
During its outbreak, which is now considered over, Iraq faced problems in the shipment of specimens for external verification of diagnostic tests. For the retrospectively confirmed case, initial test results were inconclusive, possibly as a result of sample deterioration during shipment. Repeated testing, using different methods, was needed for diagnostic confirmation.
The two cases previously confirmed in Iraq occurred in January 2006. Both cases were fatal.
Iraq
Iraqi boy was country’s third bird flu case: WHO
A three-year-old Iraqi boy in Baghdad has been confirmed as having survived a mild case of bird flu last March, the first confirmed human infection in the capital, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.
“The Ministry of Health in Iraq has retrospectively confirmed the country’s third case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus,” the WHO said in a statement.
Initial testing on samples taken from the boy had been inconclusive, possibly due to their deterioration during shipment, but repeated tests using different methods has confirmed the presence of the virus, according to the United Nations health agency.
Maryland, USA
Univ. releases bird flu response plan
Worst-case scenarios include mass evacuations, canceling semester.
University officials finalized a report this week outlining how the university would respond to a large-scale emergency should avian flu strike the campus.
The report offers a doomsday-like scenario that includes closing campus offices and dorms, evacuating the campus and canceling the semester if the situation were severe enough.
While officials concede that of the more extreme conditions detailed in the report are unlikely to occur, the plan still assumes that in the event of an outbreak its “impact will likely be felt on the University of Maryland campus, as well as across the nation.”
[snip]
Regardless of the university’s attempts to warn students of the bird flu’s potential consequences, some students remain unconcerned.
“I started to laugh,” freshman letters and sciences major Steph Solof said. “I guess it’s feasible that the avian flu could come to Maryland, but if [it’s] going to come, there’s nothing this e-mail is going to be able to do about it.”
Their is often a failure of logic when considering very bad outcomes. People often say an extremely bad outcome is unlikely without any understanding of the variables that affect it’s likelihood. This is wishful thinking.
Wales, UK
Wales keeps eye open for bird flu
Chief Veterinary Officer for Wales, Christianne Glossop, has welcomed a new targeted approach to prevent avain flu.
Ms Glossp said: “This targeted approach ensures that our surveillance is as effective as possible. We are doing most work where the risk is higher, but we must all continue to be vigilant in checking for avian influenza across the UK. This approach is in addition to other measures which are in place, including improved links with overseas governments for early notice of cases, and biosecurity measures for all poultry keepers.
[snip]
It will involve sampling for the disease in areas which have higher numbers of migrating waterfowl and larger poultry populations. It is being introduced in time for the Autumn migration of water birds. Screening for the virus will take place in designated surveillance areas where a sample of reported dead birds will be collected and tested. Unusually high numbers of dead birds will continue to be investigated throughout the UK as in previous years.
Front page of my local newspaper this morning.
Florida, US
A tissue, soap and planning can help us fight the flu
The Leon County Commission is today proclaiming October as Influenza Awareness Month, and our county has cause to be conscientious about its public health responsibilities.
[snip]
In Leon County, there are two hospitals. On any given day, about 800 beds are in use. If a pandemic develops that has the same 25-percent attack rate as the 1918 influenza, then over a six- to eight-week period, 67,500 of us will become ill. It doesn’t take a mathematician to see that our hospitals would be overwhelmed.
[snip]
he Capital Area Chapter of the American Red Cross has a long-standing program called “disaster-resistant neighborhoods,” in which neighbors are organized to take care of each other in a major storm until help arrives.
In a pandemic, we may have to give and accept help from those good folks up the block. It’s time to get to know and build trust in each other. Our lives and theirs may depend on it.
Pandemic influenza planning: www.pandemicflu.gov
DisasterÐresistant neighborhood program: www.tallytown.com/redcross/ds
Singapore
Suntec Medical Centre wins praise from IMF/World Bank delegates
SINGAPORE : Bird flu, mass casualties and evacuation - these are some of the possible emergencies organisers of Singapore 2006 spent months preparing for.
Hillbilly Bill – at 08:27
I can read the headline, but that’s about it. Do you have access to the electronic version? I would be great if you could post a couple of paragraphs.
Thanks
Indiana, USA
Health department issues draft of flu plan
As many as 110,000 Allen County residents could become ill if the current strain of bird flu that has caused human deaths in Asia and eastern Africa were to mutate into a form that could spread easily between humans and cause a global flu pandemic.
Considering that, the Fort Wayne-Allen County Department of Health made treatment, vaccination and containment of the pandemic flu central to the first draft of its public health disaster/pandemic flu plan. The initial plan and a specific installment on mass prophylaxis – which looks at preventive and protective measures related to pandemic flu – were submitted to the county health board Monday night.
The draft outlines general planning measures – including ongoing preparation – and names at least 13 specific areas that require in-depth strategizing. Specific details for those complex components of the plan are being outlined in separate annexes.
In addition to mass prophylaxis, the annexes will cover a mass treatment center (already test run at Memorial Coliseum in June), pharmacy protocol, mental health and psychiatric first aid, community care centers, quarantining and social distancing as separate containment measures, practice recommendations for infection control, a crisis communication plan, volunteer mobilization, data collection, finance and accounting, and infection control recommendations for pet owners.
[snip]
We believe that severe, widespread influenza pandemic could be the most resource intensive public health disaster we are likely to see in Allen County,” reads an excerpt from the plan’s introduction. The time and effort it takes to plan for that can only better prepare the county to handle other issues affecting the masses from catastrophic events to terrorism, the draft continues.
Board members will review the initial plan outline and subsequent annexes in the months to come. No final date has been set for their acceptance of the plan, but the health department has been steadily moving ahead with other pandemic preparations, including a public forum tonight at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.
Comment
Fort Wayne, Indiana is now on my list of cities likely to survive a severe pandemic. Seattle is also on the list. OK, it’s a short list, but maybe it will grow.
It’s great to collect “best practice (in theory)” cases. Collect and display. Desire for emulation is a great propeller, too.
Monotreme at 8:24 — From the article about the U. MD plan, I found this quote rather interesting:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought even the WHO had acknowledged some limited H2H at this point??
09.19.2006
PARIS (AFX) - “Sanofi-Aventis SA said it has begun clinical trials of a potential vaccine for the H7N1 bird flu strain, a variation that could pose a pandemic influenza threat.
Monotreme – at 08:18 wrote:
Iraqi boy was country’s third bird flu case: WHO
A three-year-old Iraqi boy in Baghdad has been confirmed as having survived a mild case of bird flu last March, the first confirmed human infection in the capital, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.”
Looks like a growing trend by authorities, trying to discretely dump disturbing toxic information into the data stream, hoping nobody would notice.
It seems like we are all part of a WHO, “Cat Joke”, a version of which follows.
“A man left his cat with his brother while he went on vacation for a week. When he came back, he called his brother to see when he could pick the cat up.
The brother hesitated, then said, “I’m so sorry, but while you were away, the cat died.
The man was very upset and yelled, “You know, you could have broken the news to me better than that.
When I called today, you could have said he was on the roof and wouldn’t come down.
Then when I called the next day, you could have said that he had fallen off and the vet was working on patching him up.
Then when I called the third day, you could have said he had passed away.
Klatu. Thanks for the information.
bottom line. more aymptomatic and mild infections mean we are one step closer to a pandemic…
1) …more mild infections = increased opportunities for adaption to mammals.
2) …mild or asymptomatic infections in more than one mammal species…pigs and humans at the same time…double the opportunities to evolve and tipping point probably passed.
3) …mild of aymptomatic infections in multiple mammals at the same time…another multiple of opportunty for adaption etc.
It appears that H5N1 now appears under option 3).
OBSERVATION and QUESTION
Over the last couple of days there have been several cases now of “mild” cases of H5N1 being reported, that occurred in months past, and which now are “positives” with the new WHO definitions. My observation is this: The cases couldn’t have been that “mild” or the patients would not have sought medical treatment, or been tested for H5N1 in the first case. In a pandemic, when the hospitals will be over run, will we still consider these cases to be “mild,” if we had to treat them ourselves, at home? How many of these “mild” cases would have actually died without the intervention of hospital treatment?
I updated the fluwiki human case chart to show the additional case for Iraq.
Thanks for all the news reports!
Oops.. I mean here.
Snowhound1 – at 10:11 wrote:
Over the last couple of days there have been several cases now of “mild” cases of H5N1 being reported, that occurred in months past, and which now are “positives” with the new WHO definitions. My observation is this: The cases couldn’t have been that “mild” or the patients would not have sought medical treatment, or been tested for H5N1 in the first case.
Good observation and questions. If the North American tribe playing the game “Survivor” hopes to beat teams H5N1, WHO & CDC , we’ll need to be well-informed to prevent being voted off this mortal coil.
This is a multi-factorial problem…but the policies of the World Health Organization in concert with and in close association to the policies of the Chinese Government…are pushing us slowly and steadily into a pandemic.
It is my honest opinion, that we would be better off without the World Health Organization at this point…their actions ‘do more harm then good’.
WHO warns nations to prepare for pandemic from Monsters and Critics
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Tuesday of an increasing threat of an influenza pandemic and said it was imperative that states prepared to deal with it. It also called for urgent steps to prepare to battle emerging infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)…
New Hampshire, USA
NH team meets on preparing for pandemic from Union Leader
One of the biggest challenges facing a group trying to prepare for a possible Avian flu pandemic is convincing people they should get involved, health and safety officials said last night…Participants said one of the things they need to work on is educating the public about a possible pandemic. Residents shouldn’t live in constant fear, and they shouldn’t become complacent, Stephen said. Derry Fire Chief George Klauber said many people don’t realize how serious an Avian outbreak could be or don’t think it could happen here…
Tom, I know you are not a “fan” of WHO, but at the same time had it not been for the recent postings/announcements from WHO, I really don’t think the information about the “mild” cases of H5N1, would have even made it into the media at all. Despite their shortcomings, I believe they are at the very least, serving some common good. Not to mention, that at the very least, at lot of the PTB, are looking to WHO, to make their “pandemic” plans. We may not like them, but they are still important, in the overall scheme of things. Besides, if we adhere to the “Watch what they do, Not what they say,” perhaps it will give us the heads up we are looking for. They are privy to a lot more valuable information than we are and it is important to see what bits of this information they “leak” out and then try to decipher the “why”?
Kentucky, USA
Volunteers needed for Medical Reserve Corps from Richmond Register
In a worst-case pandemic flu scenario, the Madison County Health Department would be responsible for giving medicine or vaccines to 75,000 people in 48 hours. About 500 volunteers would be needed to help quickly set up clinics and dispense preventive medicines or give shots. To help prepare for any potential pandemic, the health department is recruiting volunteers for a Medical Reserve Corps unit…An introductory training for MRC volunteer teams will be conducted from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 7, at the Martha Pride Community Health Center in Berea…
…“For those who are non-medical, we would need people to register those in need, help those with disabilities get through the line, help feed the staff, and help with security, traffic and interpreting,” Gilliam said about what volunteers’ duties would include during a pandemic. “Of course, we also would need people who know how to give shots and who could instruct on medicines…”
…Volunteers who complete the Oct. 7 training will be eligible to participate Tuesday, Nov. 7, in a county-wide pandemic flu exercise involving the Emergency Management Agency and other response partners…
Comment: Interesting…wonder how many volunteers they will get.
Regarding my post at 10:51:
(WHO) warned on Tuesday of an increasing threat of an influenza pandemic and said it was imperative that states prepared to deal with it.
Weren’t they issuing some soothing words yesterday?
‘In the early stages of a potential pandemic, it may be possible to stop or delay the spread of the virus by swiftly implementing pandemic influenza rapid response and containment measures,’ he said.
‘If rapid interventions are successful, the severe adverse health, social and economic consequences expected to result from a pandemic might be prevented.’
banshee 10:51. This is a perfect example of what I was saying in my post at 10:41…we are still in control…if it doesn’t work it will be your fault not ours..
You know it is too bad that from 1996 until about Jan. 2006, the World Health Organization and the Chinese government based on their collective actions…were pretty much convinced that we would not get to this point…
Hogwash…the horse they are flogging died in 2003…too little too late.
Snowhound I have great respect for your opinions.
“Not to mention, that at the very least, at lot of the PTB, are looking to WHO, to make their “pandemic” plans.”…you have hit on the crux of the matter…Dick Thompson WHO Jan 2005…total mortality from a worldwide pandemic…no exceptions…2–7 million people.
As far as the small number of mild cases being reported…Monotreme et al answered that question with the pig thread…if you have asymptomatic infections in pigs, you have to have asymptomatic infections in humans…
…many may not understand just how sophisticated the level of scientific understanding there is now on flu wiki.
Now they are yakking about how we are still in control…
…99% of what they say is disinformation or misinformation…
…If Dick Thompson doesn’t like what I have to say then he is welcome to come on flu wiki and debate the issues with us…anytime.
A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5–150 million people, a UN health official has warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.
“It’s like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it’s running at the moment,” Dr Nabarro told the BBC.
But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.
The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO’s official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.
“There is obvious confusion, and I think that has to be straightened out. I don’t think you will hear Dr Nabarro say the same sort of thing again,” Mr Thompson said.
Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths.
Prepared for worst
“The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m,” the UN’s new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said in his BBC interview.
Dr Nabarro said he stood by the figure drawn from the work of epidemiologists around the world.
“My reason for giving the higher figure is simply that I want to be sure that when this next flu pandemic does come along, that we are prepared for the worst as well as for the mildest,” he said.
In an earlier interview with the BBC, he said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.
“The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging,” he said.
Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility “that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East”, he warned.
The comments came as agriculture ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and training.
Dr Nabarro said the number of deaths from any future influenza pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments. “I believe that the work we’re doing over the next few months will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 or in the direction of five.”
The appointment of Dr Nabarro is an indication of how seriously the UN is taking the threat, the BBC’s UN correspondent Suzannah Price says.
In his new role, he is meant to ensure the UN has a co-ordinated response to bird flu and that it helps global efforts to prepare for any human flu pandemic, our correspondent says.
Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4292426.stm
Published: 2005/09/30 15:21:25 GMT
© BBC MMVI
banshee – at 10:51 - This article in Monsters and Critics (they’ve been quick!) has been copied verbatim from the WHO Regional Committee for the Western Pacific site. It’s a press release published today: http://tinyurl.com/nyfpn
Interesting reading from WHO. If you go to the page of EPR for Indonesia(Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response) it is very interesting to read the progression of events in Indonesia.
Of particular interest are the “Situation assessment and implications for human health”, on
and the “epidemiology of human H5N1 cases reported to WHO”
There has not been another Situation assessment since 18 August 2005
Why not?
On MSNBC (TV): State of Emergency in Thailand. Attempted coup?? Unfortunately, Thailand has been having some political turmoil lately. If it continues, that will affect their BF efforts.
- Tanks are rolling through the streets of Bangkok, Thailand, amid rumors of a coup attempt, CNN confirms.
FoxNews headline: “RUMORS OF MILITARY COUP SWEEP THAILAND, PRIME MINISTER DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY.”
Surely medical aspects of panflu control will be affected by this (apparent event confirmed by posts above from banshee and EastTN).
Dennis in Colorado – at 12:22, there also have been hints of growing instability in Indonesia.
banshee – at 12:26
Oh, lovely. We should probably start a separate thread on “Thai government issues” and, if necessary, one on “Indonesia government issues” since it is a certainty that such issues will affect the spread of influenza in those areas. I know the moderators here are reticent to delve into “politics” but if we can find statements about a new government’s spending priorities, or martial law &/or curfews, that may well give one piece of the kind of advance notice we all seek.
There could be “positive” repercussions as well…I imagine that the amount of tourists, business travelers, etc. in and out of politically unstable areas would also limit the possibility of spread through air traffic, as the traffic in and out of the country would be limited.
A CNN reporter in Bangkok is saying that the military has “formally announced a coup.”
The prime minister is in New York for the opening of the U.N. His speech was moved up ( I think to this evening) so that he could get back to Thailand. That was before the coup was still an attempted coup. (Would he still go back if the government has been taken over?)
That should be WHEN the coup was still an attempted coup.
AUCKLAND, New Zealand, Sept. 19 (United Press International) — The World Health Organization Monday advised nations this week to ensure they are capable of rapidly responding to a flu pandemic.
Emerging infectious diseases pose an increasing threat and make it imperative countries have the necessary infrastructure in place to respond to flu pandemics as well as long-term battles against other diseases, the international health agency said.
“In the early stages of a potential pandemic, it may be possible to stop or delay the spread of the virus by swiftly implementing pandemic influenza rapid response and containment measures,” said Richard Nesbit, WHO acting regional director for the Western Pacific.
“If rapid interventions are successful, the severe adverse health, social and economic consequences expected to result from a pandemic might be prevented,” Nesbit added. (excerpt)
Monotreme @ 0830:
Thanks for the FL links. The Tallytown (Red Cross) website is very comprehensive…with ONE exception! www.tallytown.com/redcross/ds
I went to the Disaster Resistant Neighborhood page of the website, and guess what??? Pandemic Influenza nor any Bioterrorism-induced Infection is even listed as a potential disaster to prepare for! <was that bad grammar?>
So…I emailed them. For which I am sure they are eternally grateful ;) . Looks like signs of the times. We are behind the eightball when it comes to preparing for a panflu.
PS. There IS a section on Pandemic Influenza on the home page with some info on home care of an influenza patient. Basic, but concise info for a newbie.
20 September 2006
“The World Health Organisation has urged New Zealand and other western Pacific countries to prepare for the worst – a large-scale infectious disease pandemic.
Many western Pacific nations lack the capacity for rapid response and containment which would lessen the blow of a serious health threat, such as an avian influenza pandemic, WHO said in a statement yesterday.
The organisation is holding its annual regional meeting in Auckland this week.
Dr Richard Nesbit, acting director for WHO in the western Pacific, said the threat of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) illustrated the need for swift action in the event of a pandemic.
“Many health systems were under-manned and under-resourced when Sars struck, causing great human suffering, enormous fear and staggering economic losses.”
A few months after WHO declared the containment of Sars in July 2003, an outbreak of avian influenza (bird flu) hit Asia and has since spread to Africa, Europe and the Middle East. “ (excerpt)
Sulawesi, Indonesia also has its problems. How will it affect bird flu containment is anyones guess.
Indonesia to execute Christians
Christians in Indonesia have protested against the executions Three Indonesian Christian militants sentenced to death for attacks on Muslims in 2000 are due to be executed on Thursday or Friday, lawyers said. Fabianus Tibo, Marianus Riwu and Dominggus Silva had been set to face the firing squad last month but won a reprieve after a papal appeal.
The men were found guilty of inciting attacks during religious rioting in Central Sulawesi in 2000.
Their supporters and rights groups have questioned the trial’s fairness.
Some 4,000 extra troops have been deployed in religiously-divided Sulawesi amid fears the executions could spark further violence.
VIOLENT PAST
Previously known as Celebes, Sulawesi is Indonesia’s fourth largest island 80% of residents are Muslim, while 17% are Christian A December 1998 brawl in Poso led to months of religious violence in which hundreds died
“If there are unwanted actions, or actions tending toward anarchy, police will not hesitate to take repressive action,” Central Sulawesi police chief Badroddin Haiti said.
<snip>
Attorney General Abdul Rachman Saleh told reporters the letter, delivered late on Monday, said the men would be shot in 72 hours time.
<snip>
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5358976.stm
A comment: As much as we would like to see fractious discussions concerning religion and politics kept out of the FluWiki, it is important to remember that religion and politics are intergral parts of everyones lives, whether they like it or not. I personally can not seperate myself from my religious and political convictions, and I do not expect anyone else to either. The best we can do is to respect others beliefs and refrain from conflict over those beliefs. As world events develop, and the spread of bird flu in turn is influenced, let us not turn a blind eye out of “political correctness” to the influence of politics and religion upon circumstances which may help or hinder the development and spread of pandemic flu. But in discussion of these matters as they relate to bird flu let us leave room for disagreement and dialog.
COMMENT With reference the coup in Thailand and the lowering of travel numbers (Snowhound at 12:59). Here in NZ this morning (20 Sep) the radios were advising that travel plans should NOT be altered - just that people should be more cautious when in Thailand.
As to the political situation in Indonesia, I would venture to suggest that it is the most stable it has been in about 20 years! However, information flows etc may be disrupted soon as Ramadan begins.
Okieman – at 14:26
Your “news” item has nothing to do with bird flu and everything to do with your religous beliefs. It doesn’t belong on the news thread.
Xanon -
I think it does, tangentially. Civil disorder and strife are to disease as dark is to a fungus - an favorable environment to grow and a cloak that hides its spread from sight.
Religous beliefs aside, it seems we have a very dark place indeed, where we cannot acertain the true nature and scope of the emerging panflu threat.
From South Dakota (link http://tinyurl.com/jjjn7 )
Avian flu on September 22 ‘Today’s Ag Protecting you and your dogs from the risk of avian flu while hunting will be a topic on the September 22 edition of “Today’s Ag.”
Associate professor Tanya Graham of SDSU’s Animal Disease Research and Diagnostic Laboratory will be on the show to tell hunters what the latest research suggests about how to stay safe … more
COMMENT - I think this is great - it acknowledges that other species are susceptible to infection as well.
XanonymousX – at 16:03
Sulawesi has had some of the most recent and worrisom human cases of bird flu. There have been numerous and widespread cases in poultry. This area of the world does not need to slip off into a religious conflict. It needs cooperation to address the situation.
One of my concerns has been the merging of political/religious strife happening at the same time as a pandemic emerging. Was international politics (war) involved in the spread of H1N1 Spanish Flu in 1918. No question in my mind that it was. I believe that there can be civil dialog here on the fluwiki concerning how politics and religous strife will affect the containment, or lack of containment, of a pandemic flu. Total avoidance of these subjects is to turn a blind eye to strong motivators in peoples lives and their decision process. Civil discussion of these subjects as they relate to pandemic flu is possible on this forum.
When I was reading about the possible coup in Thailand on the BBC, the link to the article I posted was on the side of the page. It struck me that in two places with significant bird flu activity there are possibilities of significant unrest. One due to politics with religious undertones: Thailand. The other due to religion with extenuating circumstances due to recent remarks by the pope: Sulawesi. These side issue (as they relate to most of us) have the potential to significantly affect our lives if they hender efforts to contain a developing pandemic flu virus.
My apologies if I offended by posting the article I did, but I do think there is relavence.
Okieman – at 16:23
This is a news thread for news dealing with Bird Flu. “Indonesia to Execute Christians” is a news article about religion. The article in no way, shape or form discusses Bird Flu. Bird Flu is never mentioned in the article. I would argue therefore that it does not qualify as “Bird Flu News,” which is what this thread is meant to deal with.
If you see a connection between the long suffering religious tensions in Indonesia or in Thailand or anywhere else and how they might affect dealing with bird flu, perhaps that would be better discussed in its own thread. This thread should only be about Bird Flu news.
Okieman. You don’t need to apologize. Every piece of information is important if we are to figure out things with only circumstancial evidence avalilable to us. You are part of a great investigative team on flu wiki.
Thanks.
Tom DVM – at 16:45
Okieman is indeed part of a great investigative team on Flu Wiki, but that is not what is being discussed. With all due respect, we are discussing what belongs in eth news thread and the mods have worked long and hard to keep religion off the entire wiki.
I like sailing and could probably make intelligent arguments for how different races/regattas held in and around Indonesia could function as opportunities to educate the masses on BF, etc., but that doesn’t mean I should post sailing related articles here just because I am passionate about sailing and see potential tie-ins with BF. If the article does not deal with BF it is not Bird Flu news. I am not saying Okieman’s points can’t be debated/discussed, I am saying that at the very least they do not belong in the news thread.
XanonyousX. I don’t speak for everyone here but I like to think we are a humanitarian group; sensitive to our friends and colleagues while preoccupied with a really big fish that just might get us…
…so if you really feel the need to put a sailing post up…I am okay with it. /:0)
Tom DVM you are indeed a good guy. Thanks. I’ll leave the sailing posts, though, for another forum I frequent. : )
I’m sure some would be ok if I decided to discuss what the consequences of the civil war in Iraq will have on our troups when birdflu hits, but since this is a thread discussing bird flu and I don’t have a link to an article talking about birdflu and the consequences of Iraq’s civil war, I would think that discussion should also go in another thread and not on the bird flu news thread. Same thing with some religious post or some sailing post.
The oil industry is paying attention
Houston Companies Urged To Prepare For Bird Flu Pandemic
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Although a much-feared global outbreak of avian flu has so far not surfaced, Houston public health officials Tuesday urged local businesses to prepare emergency response plans should a pandemic hit the global energy center.
“Things happen here,” Herminia Palacio, Executive Director of Harris County Public Health and Environmental Services, told the “Texas Bird Flu Forum.” Palacio, asked by an audience member to handicap the chances of an outbreak, predicted that a major health scare like bird flu was inevitable at some point…
Palacio was followed at a well-attended half-day seminar by speakers from ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), who described the industry’s preparatory steps to protect employees and ensure operations continuity should a worst-case scenario surface.
A base case outbreak of a bird flu pandemic could affect 30% of Houston’s population, require hospitalization of up to 100,000 people and result in up to 23,000 deaths, Palacio said. The surge in activity from an outbreak would stretch Houston’s public health infrastructure beyond its capacity, she said…
“WHO warns nations of flu pandemic”
Why not update the phase level? These people are cynical players, psychopaths, with only their prestige and career pn their minds. If they get away with this in the aftermath I will hunt them in the afterlife. I will clone each of them, then infect each of them with the mother of all virus. This I will do again and again in an endless row of clones. That will be Phase 7.
(back to lurking)
Michelle in OK
One thing about oil is that it is not all about oil. The world doesn’t have a huge stockpile of food, so one crop failure for whatever reason would be catastrophic.
Yield improvements have been made since the second world war for many reasons but could not have occured with out nitrogen fertilizers…no nitrogen fertilizers basically no corn crop to amount to much.
Nitrogen fertilizers are produced by the oil industry I believe a byproduct of their refining process.
No oil refining would mean very poor crops in the short term I’m afraid.
The World Bank is issuing new warnings about the possibility of a bird flu pandemic among humans. It says a severe pandemic could cost the world two-trillion US dollars in a worst case scenario…
David Nabarro, Co-ORD. of UN avian and human influenza said, “You can take it from me this virus is continuing to move into different parts of the world and continuing to affect the bird population, it’s continuing to threaten the human as well through these individual cases or clusters that we see from time to time.”
Klatu – at 14:24 Get ready for worst-case scenario - WHO “The World Health Organisation has urged New Zealand and other western Pacific countries to prepare for the worst – a large-scale infectious disease pandemic.
The article from the posted link above DOES NOT say this. It reads completely differently. The article is about the WHO advising nations to beef up infrastructure and that they must be able to respond rapidly in order to effectively “stop or delay” the spread.
Here it is:WHO warns nations of flu pandemic
AUCKLAND, New Zealand, Sept. 19 (UPI) — The World Health Organization Monday advised nations this week to ensure they are capable of rapidly responding to a flu pandemic.
Emerging infectious diseases pose an increasing threat and make it imperative countries have the necessary infrastructure in place to respond to flu pandemics as well as long-term battles against other diseases, the international health agency said.
“In the early stages of a potential pandemic, it may be possible to stop or delay the spread of the virus by swiftly implementing pandemic influenza rapid response and containment measures,” said Richard Nesbit, WHO acting regional director for the Western Pacific.
“If rapid interventions are successful, the severe adverse health, social and economic consequences expected to result from a pandemic might be prevented,” Nesbit added.
The WHO’s Regional Committee for the Western Pacific Monday endorsed the Asia Pacific Strategy for Emerging Diseases, which is a guide to help countries ensure they are prepared to respond to infectious-diseases outbreaks.
WLUCTV - Marquette, Michigan September 19. Parents Fear Spread Of Strep Throat
“There has been a rise in upper respiratory viral infections like colds and sore throats since the school year began. They’re transferred more rapidly when youngsters spend time in close proximity to each other, and their age makes them more likely to get sick.
Dr. Kevin Piggott says, “The younger the child is, the less likely they have immunity to it, and once they get exposed to a virus, they’re more likely to get it, where once we are older, our body has seen it at some time and we have some residual immunity that recognizes it.”
anonymous – at 17:58 wrote:
Klatu – at 14:24 Get ready for worst-case scenario - WHO “The World Health Organisation has urged New Zealand and other western Pacific countries to prepare for the worst – a large-scale infectious disease pandemic.
The article from the posted link above DOES NOT say this. It reads completely differently. The article is about the WHO advising nations to beef up infrastructure and that they must be able to respond rapidly in order to effectively “stop or delay” the spread.
Sorry annonymous, I got the links and stories switched, here it is corrected.
20 September 2006 (excerpt)
“The World Health Organisation has urged New Zealand and other western Pacific countries to prepare for the worst – a large-scale infectious disease pandemic.”
Today the vacine trials of H7N1 Birdflue vacine started on 60 voulentairs in Norway. The trial will have the result ready on new year. Professor Haakon Sjursen said is was easy to find voluntairs for the trial, and is optimistic on making a birdflu-pandemic vacine in 1–2 years time. The following weeks will shov if there is any reactions or sidefects.
http://www.hpa.org.uk/hpa/news/articles/press_releases/2005/051104_flu.htm
Tekst in Norwegain; We se one of the heroic guinea pig taking he shot :-) http://www.bt.no/lokalt/bergen/article299466.ece
further to above….
If rapid interventions are successful, the severe adverse health, social and economic consequences expected to result from a pandemic might be prevented.
What are the chances?
(excerpts)
Flupan is a collaborative research project funded by the European Commission, specific RTD programme ‘Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources’). The project is directed towards improved preparation for an influenza pandemic.
There are six European partners in FLUPAN: National Institute for Biological Standards and Control, UK; University of Reading, UK; Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Italy; Heath Protection Agency, UK; sanofi pasteur, France; University of Bergen, Norway. Reverse genetics will be used to modify a highly pathogenic H7N1 avian influenza virus, so that it is safe to use and will grow well on mammalian cells.
Experimental vaccines will be produced, which will be evaluated pre-clinically and clinically. Libraries of reagents will be produced from a variety of animal influenza viruses and new techniques will be investigated for producing cell culture vaccines and for monitoring transmission of animal viruses to man. The project should improve the level of pandemic preparation in the European Community.
FLUPAN news – September 2006
The project began on 1 September 2001 and the scientific progress can be summarised as follows:-
‘’‘A highly pathogenic H7N1 avian influenza virus was selected as a potential pandemic virus. This virus caused lethal outbreaks in Italian poultry in 1999 and was subsequently shown to be related to the 2003 H7N7 poultry virus in the Netherlands, which was responsible for over 80 human infections and one death.
Surveillance of wild and domestic birds in Italy has shown that influenza viruses from several different subtypes (including non-pathogenic H5 and H7) have been in circulation.’‘’
I guess not everyone is putting their eggs into WHO’s basket.
Norwegian vacine provider is Belgium Solvay Pharmaceuticals, we are nr 2 on the list after belgium. http://www.solvaypress.com/pressreleases/0,,27392-2-0,00.htm
Threre is both work on EU projeckt (we are not a member) and a possibly scandinavian projekt on construction of a scandinavin factory in some years to supply the nordic countries.
From Klatu’s article @ 18:36 from the WHO- get ready for worse-case scenario
“WHO has developed a set of regulations on national pandemic response plans, which will come into force in the western Pacific in June 2007.”
It would sure be nice to know what those regulations are, why only in the Western Pacific, and why not until early summer 2007??
Urdar, such news are giving people a false sense of security; don’t worry, we’ll take care of you. No wonder there is no prepper communities in europe. Actually, Norway with its huge amount of money should instead investing in preparations for keeping essential infrastructure up when the beast is unleashed.
The new regulations referred to in the WHO article do not just apply to West Pacific - they are binding on all member states. (I suspect it only mentioned west-Pacific because the report came from that conference.) Here is the excerpt from the WHO website
International Health Regulations (IHR)
A revision of the International Health Regulations, referred to as IHR(2005), was unanimously adopted on 23 May 2005 by the World Health Assembly and these Regulations are scheduled to enter into force in June 2007.*
The broadened purpose and scope of the IHR(2005) are to “prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of disease and which avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade.”
Hillbilly Bill – at 08:27
You bombed ANOTHER toilet seat? When is this juvenile behavior going to stop??
Klatu – at 18:43
re: your comment of what are the chances? [a rhetorical question, no doubt]
From the article you referred to:
“Many health systems were under-manned and under-resourced when Sars struck, causing great human suffering, enormous fear and staggering economic losses.”
So…so what has changed since then? Nothing. The G8 promised big $$ to Indonesia then failed to deliver. They have sealed our fate-penny wise and dollar foolish…
Bird flu is never mentioned in this article, but I think it has relevance in a tangential way since bird flu has been misdiagnosed as dengue fever. This might explain the swift rise in cases of dengue around the world.
Dengue mosquito changed: Research
Suherdjoko, The Jakarta Post, Semarang
A recent study has shown that the risk of contracting dengue fever from the bite of the aedes aegypti mosquito has increased as it can spread dengue fever without having to first bite an infected person. Head of East Java Health Office, Budihardja, said Monday that mosquito eggs now contain a dengue fever virus enabling the mosquitoes to infect humans. He said the new finding indicates that the disease can now spread faster.
<snip>
In Semarang city alone, 27 children have died of dengue fever this year. The real figure might be higher as many cases are likely to be unreported.
<snip>
Meanwhile, he also disclosed that dengue fever symptoms have changed, from a five-day fever to only about two days. He said that if dengue fever strikes, a physician would find it difficult to diagnose because the symptoms — fever and aches and pains — relate to 27 diseases, meaning a blood test would be required to make sure. “But the most important thing is that we should all work together to prevent the spread of dengue fever,” he said.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20060919.G09&irec=8
Texas, USA
Houston Companies Urged To Prepare For Bird Flu Pandemic
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Although a much-feared global outbreak of avian flu has so far not surfaced, Houston public health officials Tuesday urged local businesses to prepare emergency response plans should a pandemic hit the global energy center.
“Things happen here,” Herminia Palacio, Executive Director of Harris County Public Health and Environmental Services, told the “Texas Bird Flu Forum.” Palacio, asked by an audience member to handicap the chances of an outbreak, predicted that a major health scare like bird flu was inevitable at some point.
It will happen,” said Palacio, adding that it was impossible to know whether such an outbreak was six months or 10 years away. She warned of the need to avoid a similar fate to Toronto, which was badly hamstrung by an outbreak of SARS in 2003.
Palacio was followed at a well-attended half-day seminar by speakers from ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), who described the industry’s preparatory steps to protect employees and ensure operations continuity should a worst-case scenario surface.
[snip]
Basing the scenario on a 1918-like outbreak, ExxonMobil business units have an operating plan for a 6–8-week pandemic wave. Besides establishing plans to enable business continuity, the effort will strive to safeguard continual supply of transportation fuels and power generation fuels for use by critical infrastructure, Dockins said.
No-one should be allowed to use the term “worst case scenario” until they come to FluWiki. Can we trademark the term? Actually, I’m somewhat relieved that ExxonMobil is doing some planning.
Virginia, USA
Dr. Katherine V. Nichols, director of the Central Virginia Health District, will speak at two upcoming afternoon seminars on bird flu preparedness.
The 4:30 p.m. discussions include the status of the avian flu pandemic, current treatments and Central Virginia’s response plan should the bird flu ever occur in this area.
Nichols will speak Thursday at Tharp Funeral Home & Crematory in Bedford, 320 North Bridge St., (540) 586–3443, and Sept. 28 at Tharp’s at Smith Mountain Lake, 13161 Booker T. Washington Highway, Suite B, Hardy (540) 721–9375.
Virginia, USA
Prince William County Prepares For Bird Flu
MANASSAS, Va. — The Prince William Board of County Supervisors will hear a presentation Tuesday on the county’s preparedness for a possible bird flu pandemic.
County staff members are trying to show they are prepared to conduct county-wide surveillance and coordinate with state and federal agencies to detect the bird flu in animals or humans. They will also discuss plans for mass vaccinations and educating the public for what could happen if there were a pandemic.
Did any FluWikians attend?
Uganda
Onek warns traders of bird flu
Ugandan traders doing business in southern Sudan not to eat chicken while there following the outbreak of bird flu in Juba, animal industry minister Hilary Onek (right) has warned. Recently, the Ministry of health confirmed and outbreak of bird flu in Juba.
“For those of you who are doing business in southern Sudan when you cross there don’t eat chicken and don’t allow chicken from there to enter Uganda,” Onek said on Saturday during a meeting with Kitgum district leaders, charity workers, the prime minister and other ministers at the district council hall.
Canada
Front line workers must be included in pandemic preparedness
Ottawa (20 Sept. 2006) - Dr. Arlene King, director general for pandemic preparedness at the Public Health Agency of Canada, met with NUPGE’s National Executive Board in Ottawa Tuesday to discuss Canada’s capacity to respond to a future influenza pandemic.
[snip]
“For example, our members on the front line of Canada’s health care system have many questions related to the role of vaccines and anti-virals in controlling and preventing an influenza pandemic.
“They want assurances that their governments are taking action to protect and prepare health care workers, so that health services will be available to Canadians during a time of heightened need. Dr. King provided us with excellent information on these issues and others,” he adds.
“The National Union of Public and General Employees (NUPGE) is very pleased to be working together with the Public Health Agency of Canada to bring reliable and relevant information to our members.” NUPGE
Georgia, USA
Tuesday represenatives from Hart, Franklin and Stephens met at North Georgia Technical College Curahee Campus to come up with a county wide plan in case there’s ever flu pandemic.
[snip]
“Each county was instructed by the state to set up planning commitees to take care of businesses, health care, government and all sectors of community in case pandemic breaks out,” says Terrell Partain, Hart County EMA Director.
[snip]
Most counties should have vaccine designated spots set up. The locations aren’t made public until it comes time to use them so no one tries to steal the shots, or causes a mob scene. Now, the representatives will go back and start writing out exact plans. Those plans have to be complete by April.
Wisconsin, USA
Pandemic forum to help businesses prepare
Concerns about the avian flu have grabbed headlines worldwide, but local organizers say it’s not the sole inspiration for a one-day forum, “Surviving the Pandemic,” at the Alliant Energy Center Exhibition Hall Oct. 12.
It will bring together health experts, emergency planners, logistics managers and educators who will share their knowledge with small- to medium-sized businesses, non-profits and community-based organizations.
[snip]
Featured speakers at the pandemic forum will include:
Breakout sessions for participants include logistics and supply chain disruptions, the psychological impacts of a pandemic, human relations and personnel issues and sustaining families through a pandemic.
The cost of the forum is $35 for nonprofit and community organization members, $60 for everyone else, with sessions continuing from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
To register, call 263–1672 or register online at www.peopleware.net/2723.
Ohio, USA
Marietta College plans mock flu pandemic
Could Marietta College continue to function if a health, weather or national safety issue became so severe that professors and students couldn’t meet face to face?
That’s the question officials there are hoping to answer when they hold a mock flu pandemic Sept. 27, asking as many staff members as possible to not report to campus but to use technology to still hold class and do their jobs.
New Mexico, USA
Pandemic educator to speak in Grants
CIBOLA COUNTY - The Community Health Council will hear about the pandemic flu at its next meeting.
Margot White, JD, University of New Mexico Public Health and Human Rights Educator, will speak before the Community Health Council on Thursday at Future Family Foundations Center. The health council addresses keeping the community healthy and local health issues.
[snip]
“What the private individual needs to do is to care [for] themselves in case of an emergency,” said Cibola County Emergency Management Coordinator Peggy Jordan. Although Jordan expects to retire at the end of the month, she hopes to continue working on the pandemic flu and encourages people to learn and prepare for it.
Some tips on the subject are:
All of the oil platforms will become death traps and the oil industry knows it. I know at one time they had a problem with TB. They may still. I need to ask my brother. He works on various rigs. It will not be a good place to be when BF goes pandemic. These guys know what sardines in a can feel like.
Back in ‘05 I read an article about bird flu in Veitnam. Now it was a while ago, but I seem to remember a quote from a doctor basically saying When people start to survive the virus, that is the time to worry. I went back to find the article (National Geographic) http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0510/feature1/ I scaned it but cant find that quote. Maybe it was something else i read during that time? In any case, I wonder if the mild cases are a big deal. I was under the impression from that elusive quote I think I remember that the virus has a longer time frame to adapt to humans if it does not kill them so quickly. Sorry for uncertainty, but it’s late and cant read the whole thing right now. The main question/comment is: Are these survivors contributing to a more rapid evolution of BF?
MEDAN, North Sumatra: The North Sumatra Animal Husbandry Office says five regions in the province are still experiencing worrying levels of poultry deaths from bird flu.
snip
The office has distributed 500,000 ampules of bird flu vaccines provided by the central government to curb the spread of the virus.
“The central government has provided 2.5 million ampules to the province, but we have only distributed 500,000 of them. We will distribute the rest in a few days,” he said. — JP
Although the Health Ministry has confirmed two new victims of bird flu under a new World Health Organization (WHO) case definition, it has yet to decide whether to adopt the new standard in the fight against the killer virus.
The head of the ministry’s bird flu patient verification team, Santoso Soeroso, said the WHO definition is less restrictive, so that possible cases can be identified earlier.
Based on the new guidelines, patients can be considered possible bird flu victims when they are suffering from acute lower respiratory problems with fever and cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.
The Health Ministry, by contrast, has been using acute upper respiratory illness as the main symptom for declaring people to be suspected victims of the disease.
I am about to create the News Summary then I will start a new thread so you might want to hold your posting for about 30 minutes
Cheers and thanks