Summary from Indonesia Outbreak tracking as at 16 September 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 24 | 76 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 36 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 79 | 31 | 135 |
(From WHO as at 14 Sep – latest update on their site)
Total human cases worldwide 246, deaths 144 (2006 – 99 with 66 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
Vietnam
Laos
United Kingdom
Morocco
Azerbaijan
Canada
United States of America
Link to news thread for 16 September (link News Reports for Sept 16 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
Thanks to Mama and History Lover for volunteering to help with doing the News Summaries. I will be in touch during the week :-)
Tests on deceased Vietnamese prove negative for bird flu
Tests performed on a patient suspected to have type A H5N1 bird flu proved negative, the Ho Chi Minh City-based Tropical Diseases Hospital said Saturday. The 30-year-old patient, whose name and sex were not released, died Thursday after being hospitalized with bird-flu like symptoms such as high fever and cough.
But the tests confirmed he had not died of bird flu, a hospital official said.
In similar cases, the hospital had admitted in July and August two other patients suspected to have the deadly disease but who tested negative later. More at http://tinyurl.com/p4yva
Africa, Indonesia, China bird flu hot spots — experts
Associated Press Last updated 01:13pm (Mla time) 09/17/2006
SINGAPORE — Africa and East Asia, especially Indonesia and China, are particularly at risk for bird flu outbreaks despite progress in combating the disease in many countries, World Bank and UN experts said Sunday.
“We are worried within the African continent that we don’t have access yet to the same level of resources as we have for East Asia and Eastern Europe,” said Jim Adams, who heads the World Bank’s bird flu task force, speaking on the sidelines of the bank’s annual meeting. More at http://tinyurl.com/q9boy
Trailer this AM on FoxNews reads that they now think that a BF pandemic could have a global cost of up to $2 trillion dollars, up from the $800 billion previously projected.
I saw it trail across the screen twice, but missed both times who had done the study or made the comment, etc. so I’m watching now to see, when it comes across again, if it has any more information.
OK, that report came from World Bank.
I just saw the same report on Google News. Reuters was the reporting agency PLUS a good quote from Dr. Navarro. My hope is maybe the threat of finacial losses will grab some folks attention.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:47 here is a link for more info. Bird flu pandemic could cost $2 trln: World Bank
Thanks!!!
Sunday, September 17, 2006 12:18:20 Vietnam (GMT+07)
Tests performed on a patient suspected to have type A H5N1 bird flu proved negative, the Ho Chi Minh City-based Tropical Diseases Hospital said Saturday. The 30-year-old patient, whose name and sex were not released, died Thursday after being hospitalized with bird-flu like symptoms such as high fever and cough.
But the tests confirmed he had not died of bird flu, a hospital official said.
In similar cases, the hospital had admitted in July and August two other patients suspected to have the deadly disease but who tested negative later.
Bird flu pandemic: A $2 trillion hit
September 17 2006: 9:49 AM EDT
SINGAPORE (Reuters) — “A severe bird flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy up to $2 trillion, the World Bank said on Sunday, sharply raising earlier estimates.
The comments came as a senior World Health Organization official said the threat from the H5N1 avian flu virus was just as real today as it was six months ago, even if the headlines were not as scary.
Jim Adams, vice-president for East Asia and the Pacific and head of the Bank’s avian flu taskforce, said a severe pandemic could cost more than three percent of the global economy’s gross national product.
“We estimate this could cost certainly over $1 trillion and perhaps as high as $2 trillion in a worst-case scenario. So the threat, the economic threat, remains real and substantial,” he told reporters at the annual IMF-World Bank meetings in Singapore.
He said earlier estimates last year of about $800 billion in economic costs were basically written on the back of an envelope. But more recent financial modeling had revealed a sharper threat should the virus mutate and pass easily among people. He said it was crucial to develop strong anti-bird flu programs around the world to strengthen health and veterinarian services as well as improve public education and transparency. (excerpt)
Transparency defined : free from pretense or deceit :
Gosh, I’m glad they switched to computer modelling instead of using the “back of an envelope”, to determine the fate of the world economy. Glad to see they are more transparent.
Klatu. Keep up the good work!!
Klatu- I agree- the “back of an envelope” thing really bothers me. Kinda makes me wonder what else is being planned on the back of an envelope.
Bird flu high on agenda at annual regional WHO meeting 18 September 2006
Bird flu will be high on the agenda at the World Health Organisation’s annual regional meeting, for the third year in a row.
Health ministers and representatives from 27 western Pacific countries will meet in Auckland today to discuss issues ranging from alcoholism and drug-resistant diseases to the exodus of health workers from developing nations.
Comment: Johnson County Tx has a three part series in their paper. Looks like an article on the money! It starts with a scenerio and goes to facts. It ends with this:
“About the series
The timing of this series of articles is not a coincidence. It comes at the time of the anniversaries of the attacks on 9/11 and the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Since then, many Americans have looked quite critically at how our nation handles and learns from a major crisis.
It is not the purpose of this article and the ones that follow to scare you. We are hoping to inform you about what your community is doing and what it needs to do to protect you and your family. In the coming weeks, we will explore how everyday life might be disrupted by a pandemic, what is being done to cope with the disruption of services and what is being done to prepare medical services for the possibly overwhelming task of saving life and preventing disease.”
Recombinomics Commentary September 17, 2006
“‘Sequence analysis of H5N1 sequences from birds and patients in Indonesia provides compelling evidence that the human infections are linked to a hidden reservoir. The evidence had been building throughout the year because the sequences from the human isolates did not match the sequences from poultry isolates. The vast majority of human isolates had a novel cleavage site that was not found in the bird isolates. This change was associated with a number of additional changes on the HA gene segment as well as the other seven gene segments. A phylogenetic tree of HA isolates was presented at WHO meeting on H5N1 in Indonesia held in June, 2006 in Jakarta. That tree showed that the isolates with the novel cleavage site formed a separate branch that contained no avian isolates. This branch had all human isolates except for the second confirmed case in Indonesia, and the Karo cluster. The Karo cluster was on another branch and although there were bird isolates on that branch, the Karo cluster was quite distinct from the other bird isolates, so the origins of virtually all human bird flu cases were not clear.’‘’
At that time there were about 40 bird HA sequences that were public and they represented isolates collected between 2003–2005 from a variety of locations in Indonesia. Although all isolates had a number of markers that distinguished the Indonesian isolates from other H5N1 isolates, the Indonesian isolates were quite heterogeneous and fell into distinct sub-clades. Because of the diversity, the failure to match may have been due to a lack of recent samples collected from appropriate location. Therefore, approximately 100 recent samples were sent to a WHO affiliated lab in Australia for sequences.
Nineteen of these sequences were released last week, raising the number of recent sequences from Australia to 34. Included in these sequences were matches for both the human sequences with the novel cleavage site as well as the Karo sequences. However, the time and location of these isolates pointed toward `a hidden reservoir for the human infections.
The initial sequences generated in Australia did not match the Karo cluster, even though several of the samples were from 2006 or from regions in Northern Sumatra, the location of the Karo cluster. However, last week a duck sample from East Java provided a match. There were only three differences in the 1705 HA nucleotide and all were silent. The HA protein sequence was an exact match. However, the sample was not from 2006 or from Northern Sumatra, but was a 2005 isolate from East Java raising serious questions of the origin of the Karo cluster infections.
Last week’s sequences raised similar questions about the origin of the vast majority of H5N1 human isolates from Indonesia. As noted above, all isolates on Java in 2006 had the novel cleavage site. However, initial sequences from birds in Indonesia did not have this change. However, a 2006 duck isolate from Indramayu had the change, but that sequence was most closely related to a small subset of human cases from late 2005 or January 2006. These isolates had an additional silent change in the HA cleavage site, which was also present in the duck isolate. In addition, there were 8 additional changes in HA that were in the vast majority of the human isolates, but only three of the changes were in the duck isolates, which was also true of the small subset with the silent HA cleavage site change. Thus, the duck isolate was not a good match for most of the human isolates.
Last week however, two additional sequences with the novel cleavage site were made public and these two chicken isolates had 7 of the 8 changes in the HA that were rarely found in any other bird isolates. Thus, the two chicken isolates were solid matches of the human cases. However, both of the matches were from 2005 and were from two distinct locations on Sumatra indicating these matches were rare.
Moreover, there were still no matches in poultry from Java which matched the human cases from Java.
The match failures in poultry isolated in the same location as the human cases strongly point toward a hidden reservoir. On Java all but one human isolate has the novel cleavage site and the first human isolate was from July, 2005 and extend for over a year. These isolates are from multiple locations, including Jakarta, West Banten, Bekasi and Garut. The only two close matches for these isolates are from two 2005 chickens on Sumatra.
The human isolates have a number of polymorphisms that are shared with Qinghai isolates, highlighting the role of migratory birds and recombination. The shares sequences are on an Indonesian genetic background, indicating the sequences were acquired via recombination. There are no wild bird H5N1 sequences from Indonesia. Similarly, there is a lack of mammalian sequences. The only non-human close match on Java is from a cat, but that is the only public cat sequences. H5N1 has been reported from a dog as well as wild and domestic cats in Thailand as well as a variety of mammals in Europe and the Middle East where the Qinghai strain of H5N1 is widespread.
The surveillance in these other mammals, as well as humans not linked to dead or dying poultry has been poor. The number of familial clusters in Indonesia is high and WHO has recently acknowledge the possibility of human-to-human transmission in Karo and West Sumatra. Gaps in disease onset dates indicate human-to-human transmissions within families are common. In several instances, such transmission has produced mild cases. These transmissions coupled with the poultry match failures suggest that the level of undetected H5n1 in human populations is significant.
Sequences from a more diverse population are required to identify the source of the hidden H5N1 reservoir in Indonesia.’
Reports of missed mild bird flu cases raise questions about scope of spread
Recent reports from South Korea and Indonesia of after-the-fact discovery of a handful of mild human cases of H5N1 avian flu have again raised questions about whether the disease’s extraordinarily high death rate is being inflated because mild cases are being missed.
Experts say the evidence to date points away from that notion. But they add that it is important to continue to search for mild cases. Understanding the true number of human infections and the range of symptoms experienced could help scientists better assess the pandemic risk posed by the virus.
As well, tracking mild cases over time could provide an early warning if important changes to H5N1 occur, they suggest. Climbing rates of mild cases might signal the virus was adapting to become a human flu strain, moving closer to triggering a flu pandemic.
Thailand
Thai political crisis ‘may have increased bird flu’
Thailand’s continuing political crisis may have contributed to a resurgence of bird flu in the country, according to the United Nations official co-ordinating the global fight against the disease.
[snip]
Authorities in Thailand, however, have since July reported two human fatalities from the virus, while Vietnam last month reported its first outbreaks in poultry this year.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Dr David Nabarro, the UN’s senior co-ordinator for avian influenza, said that Vietnam’s response remained admirable. But he was concerned that the political crisis in Thailand might have weakened the country’s response.
Virginia, USA
Report anticipates toll of severe bird flu outbreak
A bird flu pandemic would kill nearly 700 people in Fairfax County, forcing hospitals, nursing homes and other makeshift medical centers to set up temporary morgues and stockpile body bags to handle the deaths, according to a new report.
“Life as you see it today will not be the same,” Fairfax health director Gloria Addo-Ayensu said in response to a 112-page primer on how the Washington area’s largest local government would respond to such an outbreak.
[snip]
The Fairfax report presents a grim scene. A severe outbreak of bird flu would infect nearly a third of the county’s population, sending thousands to local hospitals. As much as 40 percent of the county’s work force would be out of commission.
Monotreme 18:43.
I don’t think 9 in 2500 blood tests would be statistically significant. Somebody should work the numbers.
Tom DVM,
I think some mild cases are being missed, probably mostly among older people who are less affected by H5N1. I also think alot of deaths are being missed. Overall, I still think H5N1 is currently very lethal to children and young people. There is no obvious reason for that to change if/when it becomes a pandemic strain.
WHO
Bird flu still threat, says WHO director
Bird flu remains a threat three years after scientists first raised alarms of a possible human pandemic, says the World Health Organisation’s acting regional director.
Dr Richard Nesbit, speaking yesterday on the eve of the WHO’s 57th regional committee meeting in Auckland, said as long as the avian flu virus remained in the environment, its threat to human life could not be dismissed.
[snip]
With new poultry outbreaks in Cambodia and Thailand and the virus still claiming lives in Indonesia, fears are that the disease will reappear across Asia and elsewhere in the cooler months of the northern hemisphere. “In our view, the risk of a pandemic continues unabated,” said Dr Nesbit.
WHO
Bird Flu Fight Will Cost More Than $1.9 Billion, UN Envoy Says
The global effort to fight bird flu and prepare for a threatened pandemic will cost more than the $1.9 billion already pledged, and more support is needed in Indonesia, which is ``seriously affected’‘ by the virus, a United Nations envoy said.
David Nabarro, the UN’s senior coordinator for avian and pandemic flu, said the money promised by donor countries and organizations at a conference in Beijing in January won’t be enough to sustain programs aimed at identifying and controlling the virus in poultry, and upgrading laboratories and hospitals.
`We are just at the beginning, Nabarro, 57, said yesterday in an interview in Singapore, where he was attending the annual meetings of the Washington-based International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. `We are going to need to have a pipeline of funding for further work in the next few years both in the animal sector and also in the human sector.
South Carolina, USA
What You Should Know About the Avian (Bird) Flu
[Tuesday] 6 p.m. Middle Tyger Library, “What You Should Know About the Avian (Bird) Flu.” Pat Elliott of the American Red Cross will give information about the possible bird flu pandemic and how to prepare for such an emergency. Call 439–4759. [Spartanburg, SC]
Pennsylvania, USA
Officials discern where authority should lie during crisis
Montgomery County officials will not be running around like the proverbial chickens with their heads cut off if there is an outbreak of the deadly bird flu in the county.
he county now has a Pandemic Crisis Plan in place detailing the responsibilities of all those who would be called on in such a crisis including public safety and public health personnel, hospitals, physicians, other members of the medical community including emergency medical personnel, local government, schools, businesses and law enforcement.
“This gives us a platform to work from,” said county public safety Director Tom Sullivan, noting that the 30-page bare-bone plan is designed to supplement the more detailed emergency operation plans of those involved.
[snip]
One of the issues addressed in the plan is whether the county, on its own, has the authority to declare a state of emergency in the event of a pandemic. It does, according to an opinion provided by the county solicitor’s office, which also provides legal arguments designed to uphold this opinion. Also, according to the county solicitor’s office, the health department can isolate infected individuals or quarantine individuals who may have come into contact with an infected person.
[snip]
Also addressed in the plan is the potential need for law enforcement personnel to guard the county’s borders to prevent people from coming in or leaving the county, to guard detainment centers where civilians might be held and to guard storage centers for vaccine or food supplies while also protecting residential and commercial properties on a round-the-clock basis.
The coroner’s office is charged with the responsibility of freezing and temporarily interring bodies, burying bodies in mass graves or even incinerating them.
“We have to take the most pessimistic view in preparing these plans,” said DiMino.
Tamiflu
Roche hikes US Tamiflu production capacity
Roche has boosted annual manufacturing capacity for Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) to 80m treatment courses, as demand for the flu drug shows no sign of abating.
The rise means Roche’s global production network will be capable of producing 400m courses of Tamiflu annually by the end of 2006, a more than ten-fold increase since 2004.
[snip]
Amidst fears of a bird flu pandemic, the US Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) has been adamant that the US should be self-reliant in the supply of Tamiflu, so Roche and its external contractors have established all aspects of Tamiflu production in America, from synthesis of the initial starting material through all major steps of manufacturing to finished packs.
Saskatchewan, Canada
First Nation leaders get pandemic primer
With that in mind, the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations (FSIN) played host to a pandemic planning conference at the end of August, inviting Elders, First Nation leaders and health officials from across the province to come together and discuss how communities can prepare themselves to handle a pandemic.
On Aug. 28, the first day of the two-day conference, a panel discussion was held during which potential pandemic scenarios were examined. A number of agencies that have roles to play in planning and executing a pandemic response within First Nations communities were represented on the panel, including the FSIN, Health Canada, Saskatchewan Health and the Public Health Agency of Canada. Another session later in the day examined the response to recent emergencies in Saskatchewan, including this spring’s flooding of Red Earth Cree Nation and the recent forest fires in the North.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh to get $16.5m WB loan to fight avian flu
The World Bank is likely to provide Bangladesh a loan of $16.5 million within a year to design specific programmes in tackling the risks of avian flu.
However, the pipeline commitment is tentative and the specific amounts and timing are subject to change as well as the existing projects would require restructuring, a seminar on Avian and Human Influenza (AHI) was told in Singapore yesterday.
The WB has devised a support programme for the developing countries to fight avian flu in animals and was preparing for a possible human flu pandemic through a global funding programme formerly known as the Global Programme for Avian Influenza (GPAI).
Wyoming, USA
Casper
Sept. 20, from 11:30 a.m.−1 p.m., The Chamber will host a Pandemic Flu Seminar at the Best Western Ramkota. Admission to the seminar is free.
Info and RSVP: 234–5311.
Utah, USA
Disaster, epidemic preparedness join traditional services of Bear River Health.
[snip]
All of those issues are still important, but over the past few years, the department’s role has expanded to prepare for public health emergencies, such as a pandemic flu outbreak, bioterrorism incident or hazardous materials spill. In recent years, the fire service and law enforcement have increasingly looked to the agency for assistance in several arenas, mirroring an escalation of responsibilities since it was founded in 1971.
[snip]
In the case of a pandemic flu, for example, while the deputies might enforce quarantined areas, the department would help vaccinate individuals and provide advice on safety precautions.
[snip]
In addition to joining forces with area agencies to prepare for a public health emergency, the Health Department has forged an agreement with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to use its facilities to vaccinate large numbers of people in a short time in the case of a pandemic.
Wisconsin, USA
Free pandemic influenza program set at UW-FdL
Agnesian HealthCare, Aurora Health Care and the Fond du Lac County Health Department will hold a free pandemic influenza program from 7:30 to 8:30 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 19, at the University of Wisconsin-Fond du Lac campus, 400 University Dr., in the LGI room.
The event, Pandemic Influenza: Nature’s Bioterrorism — What Businesses Should Know, will explain the difference between seasonal and pandemic influenza, and how it can affect businesses and employees.
[snip]
The first 100 guests will receive special survival kits in a bottle. Business people also may pick up a planning guide. An informal question-and-answer period will follow the keynote speaker presentation. A continental breakfast is available.
Program co-sponsors include Sanofi Pasteur, Medimmune and Fond du Lac Area Businesses on Health.
For more information or to RSVP, call the Fond du Lac County Public Health Department at (920) 929–3085.
Monotreme. I agree there must have been a relatively small number of asymptomatic infections because we have seen the same thing in pigs…and I agree that the missed asymptomatic infections probably equal the missed deaths attributed to other causes…
…but that was not my point…if you or I did this experiment and wanted to publish in a peer reviewed journal, we would have to do a statistical analysis to see if we actually had a ‘significant’ findings. I’m not sure that statistics would demonstrate this result as significant…and therefore could be explained in an expected error rate in serological testing.
New York, USA
PAETEC joins businesses planning for flu pandemic
Somewhere in PAETEC Communications is a room filled with military food rations, bottled water, air mattresses, blankets, sheets, pillows and toiletries.
“We also have shower facilities in the building,” said Harry Noel, security manager. “So someone could live here for a given period of time. We could support a fair number of people in this building, actually.”
In fact, PAETEC has enough supplies to accommodate 30 to 40 workers stuck at the Perinton offices for about 30 days.
No, the telecommunications company isn’t readying for war. Well, not exactly, anyway.
PAETEC officials are merely preparing for a possible flu pandemic, making moves that have been urged by groups ranging from local and national chambers of commerce to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
[snip]
The company’s efforts began two months ago and included the purchasing of supplies and figuring out which workers would be critical to operations, and who might be asked to work continuously to ensure customer needs are being met in an emergency.
Officials also crafted human resource policies for emergencies, such as how workers would be paid if they’re quarantined inside PAETEC for an extended period of time. They’re also making sure staffers have the tools to work from home if needed.
“A lot of companies are looking at this,” Noel said. “The pandemic could shut a lot of things down, causing other companies to not be able to operate.”
One big concern is making sure companies with critical roles, such as caring for the sick or providing water to residents, remain open.
The Rochester Business Alliance will have a half-day pandemic flu readiness program at 8 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 26, at the Riverside Convention Center. The cost is $50 per person. For more information or to register, e-mail Amy.Moyer@RBAlliance.com.
Comment
I get the definite sense that at least some companies are starting to take panfluprep seriously.
Minnesota, USA
Preparing for the Threat of a Global Pandemic
Meeting Professionals International, Minnesota Chapter, and North Central Business Travel Association Joint Meeting. Dr. Elizabeth McClure, medical director for the University of Minnesota Academic Health Center Emergency Preparedness Program, will speak on preparing for the threat of a global pandemic. 11 a.m.−1:30 p.m., Hilton Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport Mall of America hotel, Bloomington. $60-$35. www.mnmpi.org.
Indiana, USA
The Fort Wayne-Allen County Department of Health is conducting Tuesday at IPFW the first of five community forums on pandemic flu.
The forum will include a presentation by Health Commissioner Dr. Deborah McMahan and other officials with the Fort Wayne-Allen County Department of Health, followed by a question-and-answer session. Displays covering various health topics related to a pandemic will be staffed by experts from emergency medicine, veterinary medicine, disaster relief and behavioral health.
Copies of the health department’s free pandemic flu preparedness guide will be available and free “flu kits” will be given out courtesy of Parkview Health.
Here’s the forum schedule:
Seating may be limited at some locations. The first event on Tuesday at IPFW Walb Stu-dent Union will be videotaped for broadcast on Access Fort Wayne. Sign language interpreters will also be present for the deaf and hearing-impaired.
Comment
Is it just me, or are there alot more of these informational conferences? I’m glad they are happening.
‘West Virginia, USA
County prepares for flu pandemic
MARTINSBURG — It is not a matter of “if” a deadly flu pandemic will occur, it’s a matter of “when,” according to a Berkeley County Health Department officer.
[snip]
And if the pandemic becomes serious enough, those problems could be compounded. Governmental agencies could opt to ban public gatherings as they did during the flu outbreak of 1918, she said. At that point at least 500,000 Americans had died. Churches were closed, funerals were banned and public gatherings as a whole were halted, she said. Already, county leaders are working to draft a pandemic preparedness plan. They’re ahead of the pack on this issue, Gaviria noted. No state-level agency has drafted such a document.
West Virginia is way, way behind the curve.
Tom DVM,
Sorry I missed your point. It’s hard to get proper statistics when so little human data has been made public. We’re still waiting for the Turkish results the WHO promised us in January.
I think the best controlled studies we have to indicate the lethality of H5N1 are the animal studies. And they are very clear. H5N1 is one of the most lethal viruses on the planet.
Monotreme. Thanks. I’m still not sure if these numbers were run through a standard statistical analysis, one would be able to come to any conclusion from them…
…but it really doesn’t matter…once I got my head around the pig data, fragmented as it is, then we would have to have a few (1–2%) asymptomatic or mild infections in humans.
I actually think next to the pigs that this is the worst news we could have…the more asymptomatic infections we see at this point…the more this virus is adapting to humans…and we already know that it is more adapted to pigs then to humans because of those asymptomatic cases in pigs…
…Truth is every time I start analyzing things…they just keep getting worse…
…take-off point remains a mystery however…a little more information on pigs could answer that question conclusively for us…but of course we aren’t going to see that data for twenty years after the pandemic or maybe ever…Is there a statuate of limitations at the World Health Organization?
about mj ‘s find at 13:44 http://tinyurl.com/zznsg
I found it intersting: “Delegates will be told the H5N1 virus may become more prevalent across Asia and elsewhere as the Northern Hemisphere winter arrives. …..
But a bird flu pandemic would be an unstoppable, unpredictable event, WHO said on its website.
“Under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths. . . Projections for a more virulent virus are much higher.”
and to follow up on WHO’s unstoppable and unpredictable comment:
Successful intervention requires that at least 5 conditions be met:
The first viruses that show an ability to sustain transmission among humans will not yet be highly contagious. The emergence of such viruses will be limited to a small geographical area. The first clusters of human cases caused by the virus will be rapidly detected and reported. Antiviral drugs will be rapidly mobilized from the stockpile, made available to the affected population, and administered to sufficiently large numbers of people. Movement of people in and out of the area will be effectively restricted.
Given the unpredictable nature of influenza viruses, it is impossible to know in advance if the first two conditions will be borne out in reality when a pandemic virus emerges. The remaining conditions require excellent surveillance and logistics capacity in the initially affected area, combined with an ability to enforce movement restrictions…..
Once the virus has become fully contagious, its spread to all parts of the world is considered unstoppable. However, some non-medical interventions, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and the banning of public gatherings, could potentially delay introduction of the virus to new areas.
from WHO’s site:
grgrgrgrgrgrgr!!!!!
COMMENT
DennisC – at 22:50
From the WHO website’s faq:
Why are pandemics such dreaded events?
Influenza pandemics are remarkable events that can rapidly infect virtually all countries. Once international spread begins, pandemics are considered unstoppable, caused as they are by a virus that spreads very rapidly by coughing or sneezing. The fact that infected people can shed virus before symptoms appear adds to the risk of international spread via asymptomatic air travellers.
The severity of disease and the number of deaths caused by a pandemic virus vary greatly, and cannot be known prior to the emergence of the virus. During past pandemics, attack rates reached 25–35% of the total population. Under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). Projections for a more virulent virus are much higher. The 1918 pandemic, which was exceptional, killed at least 40 million people. In the USA, the mortality rate during that pandemic was around 2.5%.
Pandemics can cause large surges in the numbers of people requiring or seeking medical or hospital treatment, temporarily overwhelming health services. High rates of worker absenteeism can also interrupt other essential services, such as law enforcement, transportation, and communications. Because populations will be fully susceptible to an H5N1-like virus, rates of illness could peak fairly rapidly within a given community. This means that local social and economic disruptions may be temporary. They may, however, be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Based on past experience, a second wave of global spread should be anticipated within a year.
As all countries are likely to experience emergency conditions during a pandemic, opportunities for inter-country assistance, as seen during natural disasters or localized disease outbreaks, may be curtailed once international spread has begun and governments focus on protecting domestic populations.
Anyone believes that the best case of an H5N1-like pandemic is similar to 1957. I will use WHO’s pet phrase: “there is no evidence that an H5N1-like pandemic is as mild as the mildest of all recent pandemics i.e. 1957″.
It still doesn’t say what’s 2.5% in today’s world population of 6.5 billion would be 162.5 million deaths. WHO defines this as the worst case for an H5N1-like pandemic.
Well, “there is no evidence that an H5N1-like pandemic would be no worse than the 1918 pandemic”.
Hope is not a forecast, unless WHO is the fortune teller.
ANON YYZ. Lets see them give us the truth with a higher attack rate and then give the real worse case scenario…same goes for their best case.
That 2–7 million used to be the worse case from my buddy Dick Thompson…I think it can now be classified officially as ‘urban legend’.
Everything the WHO utters should be rumour until it is corroborated by an independent third party.
They have no scientific credibility left…none!!
I think WHO’s numbers are all wrong. The intersting thing to me is that they do say it would be unstopable and unpredictable. (of course being unpredictable didn’t stop them from making predictions grgrgr)
Bump