Sorry but my broadband (fast) internet connection is down at present and creating the news summary over dial-up is not really viable. If the situation should change later this evening I shall try again.
If anyone else wants to create a summary you are most welcome.
Recombinomics Commentary September 17, 2006 (excerpt)
“The recent matching of the dominant genotypes of human H5N1 in Indonesia highlights the increasing genetic diversity in Indonesia. This growing complexity increases pandemic risk because co-circulating genomes lead to more productive recombinations, which lead to accelerated genetic change.
Co-circulation is cause fro concern. The 1918 pandemic strain arose via recombination between H1N1 from humans and H1N1 from swine. In Hong Kong in 2001 there were two distinct strains of H5N1 co-circulating which lead to the formation of the Z genotype which is the dominant H5N1 genotype causing human fatalities.
H5N1 has subsequently formed a number of sub-clades which were recently selected as pandemic vaccine targets. However, these sub-clades are being further sub-divided. The group A, which is most like the human H5n1 on Java, is distinct from group C which is most like the human H5N1 in the Karo cluster. These two groups have limited cross reactivity, and will likely become more diverse because of the co-circulation of the Indonesian strains, coupled with new sequences flying into the region via migratory birds.
As the level of co-circulation increases, the rate of genetic change in H5N1 will accelerate.
This rapid genetic evolution is cause for concern.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09170602/H5N1_Indonesia_Evolution.html
http://tinyurl.com/pxfjc - for above
WHO: Bird Flu Pandemic Threat Remains High Contributed by William Angelos| 17 September, 2006 20:31 GMT
Many months of warnings and media attention revolving around a bird flu pandemic that has not yet materialized may have caused the public to tire of hearing about the issue, but the threat is still high, according to the World Health Organization. Bird flu has gone global in the past year, spreading beyond East Asia to Europe, Middle East and Africa.
“The virus seems to be very embedded in the environment and, in our view, the risk of a pandemic continues unabated,” said Richard Nesbit, WHO’s acting regional director for the Western Pacific, speaking to reporters prior to the agency’s regional meeting. The fifty-seventh session of the World Health Organization Regional Committee for the Western Pacific will be held in Auckland, New Zealand, from 18 to 22 September 2006.
In the worst-case scenario, 70 million people could die in a flu pandemic.
Bird flu is expected to be a main topic on the meeting’s agenda. The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed at least 144 people since late 2003, and it tends to become more active during the cooler winter months.
New outbreaks among poultry in Cambodia and Thailand, along with continuing problems in Indonesia, are fueling worries. Indonesia reportedly has detected the virus in 260 of its 444 districts. Southeast China is another area of concern. Still, a best-case scenario in which the virus does less harm than in past years is possible.
Vietnam, for example, has made significant progress in combating bird flu, Nesbit noted. Although it is second only to Indonesia in the number of fatalities on record, there has not been a human case of H5N1 in Vietnam since November 2005. The country attributes its success to mass vaccination of poultry and strong political will.
China and Indonesia have stepped up efforts to improve monitoring of animal health in recent months.
At present, bird flu is not highly communicable to humans. Most cases have been the result of direct contact with infected birds. The great fear is that the virus could mutate into a form that easily transmits from one infected person to another. Although this warning has been delivered for so long that people may be tiring of hearing about it, the threat is undiminished, Nesbit emphasized.
A severe flu pandemic could cost the global economy up to US$2 trillion, the World Bank estimates. Developing countries would be worse hit, with mortality rates expected to double those of high-income countries. The World Bank announced a US$15 million grant to Indonesia to help counter the threat there.
http://tinyurl.com/qh5g7
Africa, Indonesia, China bird flu hot spots — experts
Associated Press Last updated 01:13pm (Mla time) 09/17/2006
SINGAPORE — Africa and East Asia, especially Indonesia and China, are particularly at risk for bird flu outbreaks despite progress in combating the disease in many countries, World Bank and UN experts said Sunday.
“We are worried within the African continent that we don’t have access yet to the same level of resources as we have for East Asia and Eastern Europe,” said Jim Adams, who heads the World Bank’s bird flu task force, speaking on the sidelines of the bank’s annual meeting.
The UN’s chief for bird flu, David Nabarro, also expressed concern about the widespread appearance of the virus in Africa, but said the greatest worries still were in East Asia.
For those that haven’t bookmarked this site, The NewsNow site gives a good overview of press coverage:
WHO hopes bird flu will do less harm this winter from the Taipei Times (Taiwan)
The risk of a flu pandemic remains high despite possible public fatigue with the issue, but the WHO is hopeful the bird flu virus will do less damage than in past years during Asia’s upcoming colder months, an official said yesterday…
Comment: A confusing story - particularly if the reader is just skimming the headlines.
The operative word with the WHO story, is “hopes”.
Can You Hear Me When It Counts? from CIO Insight
…Graves, program director for the Government Emergency Telecommunications Service, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, is one of the people trying to answer a key question revolving around wireless networks: Why are cellular networks among the first to fail during an emergency?…
…According to Graves, the telephone network is built to have a call success rate of 99 percent on the busiest hour of the busiest day of the year. The problem: During national emergencies—think Hurricane Katrina and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks—that success rate can drop as low as 10 percent…
…The race is on to prepare for the next big emergency, and it’s not clear wireless companies can get it together due to interoperability, allegiance to serving customers and lack of communication among key players. As things stand today, there is no coordination among the companies preparing for the Next Big One. The bottom line: The industry may not be ready for the next emergency, whether it be a massive weather event, an earthquake, a terrorist attack or a pandemic…
banshee – at 12:48,
If you are interested in emergency plans for telecom, eWeek.com has an expanded version of the article above at:
“WHO is hopeful the bird flu virus will do less damage than in past years during Asia’s upcoming colder months, an official said yesterday…” banshee 10:30
Without a shadow of a doubt…if the World Health Organization had a brain…they would eat it!!
Every other scientist in the world is scared to death by the real potential of a pandemic in the next six months…
…and the WHO’s official policy is that the virus will do less damage this year…I want some what they are smoking!!
Declan Butler’s blog has a GREAT google satellite map showing the spread of H5N1
News
Link to article in Science Daily published today -
SARS: No Evidence That Any Of The Treatments Worked http://tinyurl.com/fth82
Klatu – at 10:34
“The operative word with the WHO story, is “hopes”.”
Hope is not a plan. [spray painted on a home in the Katrina stricken Gulf last summer]
Tom DVM re: “I want some what they are smoking!!”
Me too!
Chief vet issues new alert over bird flu
“BRITAIN has stepped up its defences against the deadly strain of avian flu and is to increase surveillance at the most likely disease hotspots…. As thousands of wild birds return to these shores after spending the summer in the Arctic or in the Russian tundra, vets and ornithologists are on the alert for a possible outbreak of the H5N1 strain and other virulent forms of bird flu. … The lethal flu virus was found in Britain last year in an imported parrot and in April a dead swan was identified with the virus at Cellardyke in Scotland. A low pathogenic strain of the flu also hit three poultry farms in Norfolk in April.”
( The following story might give some insights into how they might handle things related to Avian Flu.)
Mon, Sep. 18, 2006
TAMPERING NOT SUSPECTED IN E. COLI OUTBREAK
Mercury News (excerpt)
“Federal officials are investigating a second death that could be linked to E. coli-tainted spinach from Monterey County, as the number of people made ill by the nationwide outbreak climbed from 102 to 114.
FDA officials said today that the second death was in Ohio, but noted that it has not been conclusively linked to spinach.
Meanwhile, inspectors have fanned out to Salinas Valley farms in a search for the precise source of the contamination, which has prompted grocers to pull fresh and bagged spinach from their shelves and restaurants to stop adding the leafy green to everything from salads to omelettes.
California health officials said today they have not confirmed any new cases of E. coli related-disease in the state. So far, the state has linked just one case of illness, in Shasta County, to spinach.
The company linked to the tainted spinach announced today that early investigations have not found E. coli contamination in its organic spinach at this time. But the FDA quickly warned that it has not reached a final conclusion, and said the investigation into both traditional and organic farming practices is ongoing.
NEWS
The Hong Kong Standard- “Top health officials from across the Asia-Pacific region vowed Monday not to become complacent in their fight against bird flu and to increase their pandemic preparedness efforts as the annual flu season approaches.
“For the third consecutive year, our region remains on the front lines in the fight against avian influenza,” Richard Nesbit, acting Western Pacific regional director for the World Health Organization, told the annual regional WHO meeting in Auckland. Several health ministers pledged to continue building better disease surveillance and response systems. “Hong Kong will continue to improve and refine our preparedness plans for pandemic flu,” said Health Secretary York Chow Yat-ngok…”
…”Chinese Vice Health Minister Jiang Zuojun told wealthy countries they must help nations that lack resources to improve health systems.”
http://tinyurl.com/ejnvx
Tom DVM re: “I want some what they are smoking!!”
Psst, I hear they’re stashing it on WIllie’s tour bus… :)
Reports of missed mild bird flu cases raise questions about scope of spread
“Recent reports from South Korea and Indonesia of after-the-fact discovery of a handful of mild human cases of H5N1 avian flu have again raised questions about whether the disease’s extraordinarily high death rate is being inflated because mild cases are being missed. …
‘We need to keep monitoring it,’ Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy, said Sunday.
‘Because frankly, one of the indications that there may be a changing epidemiology (disease pattern) with this is in fact if we start seeing larger and larger percentages of individuals who are asymptomatic or only mildly ill that we can clearly confirm as having H5N1 infection.’…. But there has always been a suspicion in some quarters that a significant number of mild cases are being missed - a theory these new reports may fuel.
“It’s still a plausible hypothesis but it’s becoming a less likely one,” Nicoll said of the notion that there may be a significant number of asymptomatic and mild cases of the disease. “My bottom line would be: I’m sure we’re going to find the occasional mild case…”
I am just preparing the News Summary for this thread then I will start a new one so you might want to hold your posting for about 20–30 minutes
Cheers and thanks