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Forum: WHO Containment Protocol March 17 Draft 2

23 May 2006

anon_22 – at 16:52

New thread. Previious one here closed for length

anon_22 – at 16:56

There are signs that WHO is considering moving ahead with containment response in Indonesia. This is a summary of where we are:

To summarize, a cluster of human H5N1 cases were recently evolving in Sumatra. The index case developed symptoms on April 27th and died on May 4. Other family members started falling ill some time early May (exact dates unknown) and at least six of them died from around May 8 - 14. Now we have another confirmed case who was the father of a boy who died May 13. He developed symptoms May 15 and died May 22.

From the disease onset dates, unless they are all infected from ‘common source’, which is highly unlikely as they live in different houses, it would appear that we have a CONFIRMED CLUSTER OF H2H2H.

This fulfills the WHO criteria (first post here) 3 Compelling evidence that more than one generation of h2h transmission has occurred

The US has announced that they have sent out a stockpile of tamiflu to Asia. This stockpile according to sources is part of the 3 million dose WHO stockpile earmarked specifically for containment.

Let’s keep discussions on containment here, and discussions on Indonesia here, discussions on sending tamiflu here, and breaking news here.

Kathy in OR – at 17:00

Got this in too late on previous thread. Reposting here.

From the WHO Avian Influenza – situation in Indonesia- update 14 dated May 23, 2006 Analysis of viruses Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).The human viruses from this cluster are genetically similar to viruses isolated from poultry in North Sumatra during a previous outbreak.

Would some one please explain to me if the above is true how are they accounting for the H2H2H transmissions? What if anything from their perspective is different to cause this?

jon c – at 17:34

I think if you were able to put them on the spot they would say that these people were all in confined conditions with someone who was coughing a lot, maybe around food.

anonymous – at 17:36

From one of the WHO postings today

“…three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman’s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family”.

anonymous – at 17:55

It will be interesting to see if the WHO move forward with Containment.

anon_22 – at 18:30

It looks like that are doing the PR work pre-containment.

24 May 2006

clark – at 17:16

bumped

26 May 2006

MaMaat 01:40

bump

02 July 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 02:27

Closed to increase Forum speed.

28 September 2006

DemFromCTat 21:27
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