I’ve been reading and learning a LOT here for the last 9 months. I remember as recently as a few months ago people saying, “I hope I’m wrong” or “I’d rather prepare and be wrong than not prepare at all” or “If I’m wrong, I’ll have a hefty donation to the local food pantry”. I’m not seeing this anymore. What I’d like to know is a simple “yes” or “no” vote to whether you think a pandemic is imminent (this winter). You don’t have to justify your answer - just give your gut response.
Yes but within year and a half,,,,,,,but could be this fall or winter also (close enough like horse shoes to count to me)
yes
no. My “gut instinct” is to expect more and more clusters of H2H but they will be containable for another two to three years.
My inner voice says soon.
yes
pandemic by this fall winter - 25% chance, by next fall 07/winter, 50%, by fall 08/winter 75%. but then I am not good at guessing- I need more batteries for my crystal ball.
Yes, by June. I usually love to be right….. but not in this case.
No. Next winter.
No, not this winter.
yes within 12 months
I don’t know. But if I read Dr Nabarro rigth, we are living on borrowed time.
I’m not much into guessing, I guess. Since the first cluster happened in February, towards the middle of winter, and the second cluster occurred in the summer (isn’t it always summer in Indonesia?), I’m predicting next Spring…’07. If it starts in China, I’ll hazard a gut feeling of this coming late winter.
DennisC – at 21:31 --- Yours uses batteries? I have to plug mine in, so if we lose power…..
Yes, spring.
I’m convinced something bad will happen in ‘07, not sure if it will be pandemic flu or something else.
What’s the point of this guessing game? Many months ago there was the same question and the consensus was that it would happen by August, there were people who consulted fortune tellers and they confirmed August was it. Well….
It should be clear to everyone by now that WE JUST DO NOT KNOW WHEN. We don’t know enough about the biology (genetics and gene expression) to predict the transmissibility OR virulence. Am I wrong on this? As Osterholm says, the only thing we don’t know is the when and how bad.
But it literally could be tomorrow, so why not just prepare like crazy for at least food/water at a minimum, and hang in there?
I think in the next 12 months, probably sooner to the six month mark. I agree with the interpretation of Nabarro’s message to Goju. We are living on borrowed time. I hope it’s 12 months. That will give more people time to prepare, including me. Both my kids are off to a great school year, loving their sports teams, enjoying their friendships. I don’t want to have to pull them from that yet. And while 12 months may seem like a long time, it goes by in the blink of an eye.
Very late Fall 2007–95 per cent probabliity, but we won’t see it for what it is. A lot of people who follow this site will fall by the wayside because H5N1 will continue much as it has for another full year with little seeming progress. And then it will be upon us.
RobT – at 22:05 …WE JUST DO NOT KNOW WHEN
Yes. You’re right. In fact, when pressed by friends/family, what I say to them is that all I can tell them is that we are nine months closer to pandemic than when I first brought it to their attention. Period. But I think to dismiss the discussion out of hand doesn’t acknowledge the observation made by the original poster. There has been, imo, a marked shift in the tone of the community over the past couple of weeks to month and for good reason it seems.
As to fortune tellers saying August, how do we know it didn’t start in August? We still don’t have Indonesia sorted out yet, right?
The question also assumes one “THE” start.
There may be many at once. Not a singular event.
Aren’t there about 4 clades circulating ?
All it takes is ONE to perpetuate.
In Winter, it comes
H 5 N 1 killer flu
Which year? I don’t know
Rob T
I agree, we “just do not know when”. Think the feeling it may be this Winter comes about because we are used to getting the seasonal variety at that time, but Pandemic flu could happen anytime. We know 1918 had the first, mild wave in Spring, second, bad wave in early to late Fall. Having said that, seeing how H5N1 has jumped into another 5 or six countries already this year, my feeling is that it will be sooner than we think as it multiplies the chances of H2H2.
By the way, while I have read many comments about China’s “lack of transparency” shall we say, is anyone else suspicious of how Vietnam has gone from 61 cases in 2005 to none, zero, nada, in 2006? Communist governments are not known for their openness. Do recall a comment or two back some time of Vietnamese doctors/scientists contributing to the overall knowledge base. Has anyone here seen any recent comments by TPTB there? Always have had a soft spot for Vietnam. Probably one of the few old Vets who loved the people and the country back during the war.
Yes, within the year, this winter I think. Hopeful that it holds off till after the new year so I can get DD prepped.
Edna Mode – at 22:10 “how do we know it didn’t start “
You are right. We just don’t have enough information. Perhaps I worry for nothing, but I just have this strange idea that there might be something going on in the Sudan or Nigeria that we just cannot see right now. If it was in the Sudan right now (we know the birds there have it) we would just not see it with all their other problems until it was too late.
Recently, I have come to the conclusion that a pandemic ready virus, with all required mutations, has and is being produced on a regular basis…hourly, daily, weekly…your choice.
This virus has not, as yet, been dropped in to the right conditions that would allow a ‘take off’ yet.
I believe the probablities indicate that a pandemic is imminent…the problem is that imminent in nature’s time may not be imminent in our time.
I am with Medical Maven on this…the next nine months…hope I’m wrong…always wondered what crowe tastes like…hope I get a chance to find out.
RobT. There may be no point in predicting other than I find great value in the opinion of my colleagues against which I measure my own opinion.
I don’t remember anyone on this thread predicting August 2006. I don’t think we have had the consensus before that we have at the moment.
YES…hope it holds off long enough for me to get all this stuff paid for!
yes
Nautical Man…have a bad feeling that the first wave is going to be bad…which means no immunity from a mild first wave to lessen the effects…hope I’m wrong here too.
Edna Mode
Of course this is a burning question for all of us. The one thing the human mind hates is uncertainty, we’re not very good at handling that, especially when it’s a life or death issue.
And everyone has to go through their own psychological adjustment reaction, we know that. But for myself, the constant monitoring of the threat assesment data gets to be counterproductive after a few months. Paradoxically perhaps, there is a certain peace of mind in knowing that there will be a pandemic and we (as a family) have pretty much done all that we can do to prepare for it. Perhaps what we’re seeing here is the resignation to the facts. I know in my mind the message has finally REALLY sunk in. There WILL be another influenza pandemic, unless they come up with the magic vaccine. There will be more earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis and many other events as well. Why would we think there WON’T be a pandemic?
But the ongoing stress of worrying about the pandemic is not healthy either. More action, less worrying. Let’s get our communities prepared as soon as we can.
Hmmmm…no clue.
How about we rename this the Chicken Little Support Network thread? Really, yes or no? Please. Even the best educated here have zero knowledge of if or when this will break. Come on, people. Get a hold of yourselves. Run around the block, bake a cake - better yet turn off the computer for a while and get some perspective! What is this thread really going to accomplish? If everyone says “yes” they “believe” the pandemic is “just around the corner” are you suddenly going to take it more seriously? This is a joke.
Edna Mode at 22:10 You hit the nail right on the head - it’s the shift in tone that made me ask in the first place.
And my point in all this was not a guessing game; I do not have the luxury of anyone to bounce ideas off of. I have come to respect the opinions of the (incredibly smart) people here and genuinely just wanted to know what they thought.
Thanks for your insights.
No, not this winter.
Yes.
October, 2006 overseas.
November or December, in the U.S.
I hope to join Tom DVM for some nice barbeque crow next spring.
Everything tastes good with barbeque sauce on it:-)
Yes, I think if the northern hemisphere makes it through this coming winter and into next spring without a ‘hit’ then it will be by sheer good luck … we have already talked at length that the virus is better at H2H then B2H already - it just hasn’t got really clever at it to give sustained transmission.
And the cases we hear about so far, particularly the cases in Indonesia, are not amongst the sort of people who are regular international travellers … move it into one ‘international’ (or tourist) city anywhere in eastern Asia, just one or two cases in the business community and then watch this space. Now I am frightening myself!
Sorry for the Haiku above. Also, I must fess up and admit AFAIK, I started the first thread on this topic over a year ago. It was called When will MSM (Main Stream Media) call a pandemic?.
If you read it, you will realize almost everyone was wrong, including yours truly. One reason I am gunshy about making a specific prediction. If H5N1 is under selection in mammals, and I believe it is, then I think a pandemic is likely to be inevitable. I think we are closer to a pandemic then were a year ago. But we have no scientific basis for predicting how long it will take to actually start.
Jeez, what happened to DemFromCT? He’s supposed to be the calming influence. This just feels wrong when I try to do it.
RobT – at 22:34 Paradoxically perhaps, there is a certain peace of mind in knowing that there will be a pandemic and we (as a family) have pretty much done all that we can do to prepare for it.
This, actually, is where I am. What you say resonates loud and clear for me. I think I arrived at this point probably three weeks ago. It was actually kind of sad day or two for me as I realized that I had unconsciously been harboring a shred of denial/hope that a pandemic may not be coming, that I am, indeed, nuts as some of my family would have you believe.
But when that sadness passed, a sense of resignation and determination settled on me, and it’s been all hands on deck ever since. We are ready in our house, and now I am working to make a major outreach effort in my area to help others prepare. Whether it succeeds or fails, time will tell.
Monotreme – at 22:55 If you read it, you will realize almost everyone was wrong, including yours truly.
This in itself is perspective, and so this thread has value.
Tom DVM – at 22:27
Recently, I have come to the conclusion that a pandemic ready virus, with all required mutations, has and is being produced on a regular basis…hourly, daily, weekly…your choice.
So Tom, I take it you have now decided to prep?????
Within a year. I don’t know. I am moving from the mindset of prepping just for an Avian Flu Pandemic to a mindset of being a prepper for life. I worry less that way. After almost two years of constantly preparing and worrying about WHEN WHEN WHEN, I am determined to reclaim my life and other interests whilst keeping a vigilant watch over how this pandemic evolves. Action is the key for me not to worry. I take small actions every week to make sure our preps stay current, and then I take bigger actions to ensure I enjoy my husband and daughter and all the good things my life has brought. Cheers, J.
Monotreme – at 22:55 --- Jeez, what happened to DemFromCT? He’s supposed to be the calming influence. This just feels wrong when I try to do it.
But you made a nice Haiku!
StinkinRose@ 23:00
Wow…two years…I have been at this 3 months and it’s worn me out.
But, I agree with you on the change of mindset, being prepared is a sensible thing. If this flu doesn’t happen…please, please, let it be a big bad dream…I think I will continue to have this point of view for the rest of my life.
I like feeling…I’m ready…bring it on!
Oremus. My sincere thanks for your concern…the truth is…that I have reached a new stage…I am preparing to prepare…I know it sounds dumb but that’s the honest truth.
I’m gonna order one of those rechargable LED crank crystal balls. Then I’ll let y’all know about thhe flu. Til then, I’m guessing this winter. I’d like to go to the bar-b-crow.
What, no one has taken me to task about it starting next month?!? I was hoping that someone would tell me I was being ridiculous. Of course I don’t know when it will start any more than anyone else. It will begin when it begins.
But,…I have a tendency to think that multiple warnings have been given. Most people that have heeded those warnings have prepped. Those warnings will not last forever and my gut response (as requested in the opening post in this thread) is that it will begin soon. But,
To everything there is a season, A time for every purpose under heaven:
A time to be born, And a time to die;
A time to plant, And a time to pluck what is planted;
A time to kill, And a time to heal;
A time to break down, And a time to build up;
A time to weep, And a time to laugh;
A time to mourn, And a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, And a time to gather stones’
A time to embrace, And a time to refrain from embracing;
Ecclesiastes 3:1–5
When it is the right time, it will begin.
Bronco Bill – at 23:11
Thanks.
When DemFromCT starts in with some “Worst Case” threads of his own, I’m sealing the hatches.
Monotreme – at 23:27 When DemFromCT starts in with some “Worst Case” threads of his own, I’m sealing the hatches.
I am waiting for Revere to start a Worst case” thread with swans feet up. When that happens, I will know it is getting serious.
Tom DVM – at 23:17
Order some powdered eggs from Honeyville and the prepping engine will chug along on all cylinders.
I have no idea, but I find the silence from certain areas deafening. I’ll just do what Oremus says his name means.
If you haven’t checked out the thread link posted by Monotreme at 22:55, do so. It was started over a year ago and it could just as well be today. The lesson: we can speculate all we want but no one really knows. Early in the summer I had some serious misgivings about this fall but now I really couldn’t say what I think will happen. Prepare as best you can and then get on with your life.
Don’t you have the solar powered crystal ball yet? Home depot has them in the garden department —
I’m jut wondering if the pandemic will be bird flu, west nile virus, drug resistant TB, flesh-eating staph, chickengunya, northern latitude malaria, resurgent leprosy, or any other new and exotic malady that makes it out and around the globe. It could even be a combination of all the above!
Also, whether it will arrive before, after, or during the “BIG ONE” from the Hayward Fault, the San Andreas, or the LA Central fault , which, I hope will wait till AFTER the Sacramento River delta levee’s have been repaired, or we could have a catastophe with more financial impact that NOLA right here.
Or, it could be just before the next Western Ash storm from Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Rainier, or Mt. Lassen, or maybe just after Mt. Penatubo gives us another cool summer verging on nuclear winter. Isn’t Yellowstone due for another blow soon? and there’s a bulge developing under Mt. Batchlor and the Sisters near Newberry.
And of course, I hope that it will just stay put till we get through this fall’s fire storms in California, (in fact, on the news tonight they were telling people in Ventura and Ojai to evacuate ASAP) and oh my gosh, we have another El Nino event this winter, so it looks like mud slides and flooding could be coming in this winter.
The Eastern Atlantic has to worry about those big volcanic slip slides in the Canary islands; could be a real wipe out Tsunami generated there. And hurricane season hasn’t been too bad yet in the south Atlantic — but wait, there were some pretty bad typhoons in China and Japan just this last week?
The Pacific fish catch has been down to half what it was just two years ago — eating green salads is out for the time being, and we never did catch those anthrax guys a while back. What’s that blue tongue doing to the price of lamb in Europe?
And of course, there is the perpetual saber rattling of the former superpowers and wanna-be’s, the interreligious strife around the world, global warming, and possibly another asteroid on it’s way toward an earthly collision, any of which will be followed by possible financial collapse around the globe.
Gee, pandemic flu might not get here soon enough — supplies might be used up by any number of events within just another year or two — maybe we should be prepping for more than just six months!!
No.
50/50 this winter/spring
Monotreme – at 23:27 --- Ditto
heddiecalifornia – at 23:54 --- It could even be a combination of all the above!
Great!!! Drug-resistant, west Nile flesh-eating northern latitude resurgent bird leprosy. Eewwwww!! How the he!! do ya prep for that?
I hope will wait till AFTER the Sacramento River delta levee’s have been repaired
And about those levees. We’re looking at 20 years out…
Bronco Bill. I think 20 years for H5N1 is a stretch even in ‘earth’ time. /:0)
heddiecalifornia – at 23:54 --- I know the area you live in. ;-) If you stay put long enough, you’ll have water-front property!
You have heard I hope, that the state is planning on rebuilding Frank’s Tract? Too many boats getting stuck out there at low tide…
Tom DVM – at 00:37 --- No no no sir. 20 years out for the shoring up of the Sacramento Delta levees. 1800 miles of the finest waterways in the West, between San Francisco and Sacramento…
Hi BB —
You prep for them just the same way you prep for simple human avian influenza pandemic !!
Yep, you just don’t ever know how bad it really could get!!! Actually, I was just trying to point out that pandemic flu is just ONE of the many reasons we should be prepping.
30 years ago, if anyone had said I’d see, in my lifetime, a huge volcano explode, the Eastern half of Oakland burn up in smoke, the Oakland freeway and the Bay bridge collapse in an earthquake, New Orleans flooded to oblivion, and an attack to take out both of the Twin Towers in NEW YORK CITY, and a Tsunami take away hundreds of thousands of people in three waves, I would have said ‘no way, no way.’
But incredible things do happen, often and we need to be prepared.
My estimate — human to human avian flu in the US within the year; more success than we would expect in slowing it down in the West until a vaccine is available; soap and water and hyper cleanliness will be more effective than we might think now. Quarantine or ‘Social distancing’ of power, water, gas and other utility companies’ personel will minimize social disruptions, but we might suffer a huge economic recession.
BB — Frank’s Tract!! Yeah!! I used to water ski there years ago. Needs dredging now.
Hoping the earthquake will wait until the levees are repaired. The most vulnerable part is where the connection of the northern water supply cuts out to Southern California. If the Delta-Mendota canal is broken, or there is an influx of high tide salt water to the delta, all of LA and parts of San Diego, as well as the southern farmland, will be unable to get potable water for six months to a year, if not longer.
BB and heddie, don’t say you live anywhere near Bethel Island? My Aunt lives there! I’m in Australia.
You’re absolutely right. I was there in 89 for the quake and 91 for the fire. And I said there was no way anything worse could happen. Then I was 5 miles from Northridge in 94 and the South Central riots. To top it all off, I was 50 miles from NYC in 2001. Trouble follows me, or vice versa.
But back to the topic, you may be right in that we may be more capable of slowing it down in the West if MSM will get the word out to people to prep and prepare to SIP for a length of time, whether it be total isolation, or just staying home from work for 6 weeks or whatever, to contain it.
Walrus – at 01:00 --- I used to live in San Jose, about 2 hours from Bethel. I had friends who owned a houseboat up there at Sandmound slough and a house just across the southern bridge, and I’d spend nearly every weekend in the summer just sitting on the back deck with a fishing pole and a beer (or 3). Probably the most relaxing 3 summers of my life…
Walrus —
Yes, I know where Bethal Island is — its about 5 miles east of the city of Antioch, which is where my sister’s family lives (bless her soul.) Nice ‘old california’ type of town; farming and recreation, and friendly people, but fast morphing into suburbia. It gets hot over there in the summer. I’m down in what is now Fremont, about 45 miles south which is between Oakland and San Jose, which is basically Silicon Valley suburbia now. It used to be Apricot and Cherry orchards; now all gone and paved over; I miss my old home town so much, and I still live in it.
My GrandPa lived on Stone Road backed right onto the levee with his motor cruiser on his own dock. I still remember what a great place Bethel Island was, but that was 1956!
I don’t know which gets the prize: Monotreme’s 5–7−5, heddiecalifornia at 23:54, or the thought of Dem starting a worst-case thread. All good ones!
I was in the 1989 quake in an early 1900s building in the bay area. Watched the stand-alone copy machine swoop from one wall to the other and the walls rip apart with the pipes bursting - all out of the corner of my eye as I flew (and I swear I did) to the outside. Building condemmed afterward. No one allowed to enter. I am seriously prepped.
No to this winter, but I think it is going to do some bad experimenting on humans.
If I’m ready for it, it will never happen. If I’m not ready for it…, oh geez, I’m not ready!!!!! It’s gonna start tomorrow then, probably.
Hello all.. I’m a lurker here… I have posted a little in the past… Not even sure what handle I used… WildBill or something like that… Anyway… I have been sitting here thinking about Miss Spiders question… I have been thinking of how the situation has changed in the last year… H5N1 is now virtually world wide in birds… Experts now know it can not easily reasort with human virus… It is confirmed that limited H2H is happening… It is mutating into different strains… We currently suspect it of having a Mamalian res… Hmmm… What do I personally get from all we now know…. Pandemic caused by H5N1 going to happen… not going to be as mild as the last 2 reasortant pandemic viruses…If in a mamalian res., Especially pigs… Evolution of the virus to adapt to the new mamalian enviroment is taking off, and the pandemic is likly within a year or so… If not in a mamalian res… 2 to 5 yrs at current rate of evolution… This is just my opinion Miss Spider… I am not an expert in anything, but speculation LOL… I’m pretty good at that
Certainly, my prediction does not count for much, but my attitude does. Although I am doing as much as I can to prepare for at least one year of supply chain disruptions and intermittent utilities, I am also trying to savor each normal, unventful day. I do not want a severe pandemic to occur in my lifetime or in the lifetimes of my children, but since there is no stopping it, the best I can do is to make my household as ready for it as I possibly can.
And so, we wait. And we greet each new day with apprehension. Then, when we realize that the pandemic was not announced overnight, we celebrate a little bit and savor the rest of the day. We reflect upon our preparations, we hug our kids, and we try to live our lives to their fullest, because some day we will awaken to learn that it has finally arrived.
Yes, I fear that it will happen quite soon. Any day now, really. However, until it happens, I am going to live each day like it is Thanksgiving.
nope. but that is just guessing.. I also expeckt more clusters that turns out “fine” before the final “boom”.
Murphys in law….lol…I agree and figure since several appliances in my house just took a crap on me the pandemic will probably happen right away…just a gut feeling.
I’m going to agree with DennisC’s assessment. He never writes anything without thoughtful and thorough consideration. And then there is that crystal ball . . .
Yesterday, I came home from some early errands to find a power company guy at the back door of a house a couple of doors down. He asked, “Is your power out?” The power co. guy is asking me? Yeah, it was out, on a clear, bright sunny day and stayed out for several hours. No reasons were ever given
Hi Melanie…hope all is well with you!!
That’s my plan too Dr. Dave. I am going to live every single day, until I die. My responsibility to my family is to prepare for TEOTWAWKI as it can come in many forms, and the percarious house of cards we have built society on is shakey at best, but in the meantime, I absolutely insist on drinking in every moment, and being happy, joyus and free. When TSHTF, I am as ready as I can get, and it is what it is.
IMHO, the first wave will wash over the earth before 2007 ends, and then the REAL deal begins. May hay while the sun is shining!
No - Not imminent. But agree we really don’t know. Nor do we know in WHAT form the next pandemic will be.
I’ve been hangin’ out here for a long time and I’v been paying close attention to H5N1 for longer…over 2 years now. January/February of 06 had me pretty worked up. MANY people on this forum (and others) were convinced the end was near. Lots of assurances of why the Spring was going to be the start. Lots of people anticipating a glimpse of Niman’s “Spring Bride”. I seem to remember Tom DVM (maybe not Tom) even talk about March Sun activity and virus history. During times like those, I clung to DemfromCT’s every word and found shelter in his analysis. I sought the opinions of Dr. Butcher and others like him, for some balance.
I think many of us, have become a little too close to the situation to speak without bias. We are well informed, no doubt. We know the enemy better than anyone. But nobody knows the end game. It’s that simple.
Enjoy the day and live each, as if there is no tomorrow. And dance like nobody is watching.
Imminent? Really don’t know. If a pandemic from H5N1 does not occur within the next two years, I will feel as if we have dodged a “viral bullet.” At that time, we will just have to reevaluate the risk. So I plan on being vigilant for at least the next two years and then will reassess the situation at that time. I guess you could say I am in “it” for the long haul.
Patch. I’ve talked about a lot of things but not “March Sun activity and virus history”. /:0)
I have talked about global warming and sunspots (solar radiation flares) in relationship to the wide variety of mutations we are currently seeing in respect to viruses, bacteria and parasites in distinct geographical locations around the world.
If you re-read what I have written you will see that I have been consistent since Jan. 2005…the pandemic would hit between sept 2006 and May June 2007…but consistency doesn’t mean that I am right and I desperately hope that I am proven wrong in the next nine months…
…I can honestly say however, that every development since Jan 2005 has reinforced (in my mind) my conclusions and observations at that point in time.
When WHO announced H2H in Karo,I said it would be August for cases here so I see your point Patch,But this whole preppers mindset is now entreanched in me and I have taken care of things in my life that were always put off for another day.I’m more ready for what life will throw at me by being this aware of what could happen tomorrow.My prayer is it will never happen and my kids and others kids will have the same carefree life as has been my privilage thus far.
October 18th, 2006 2:16pm EST - turn on Headline News
Yes, yes and did I say yes? Tom DVM and I share the same time reference. Even my 8 Ball said yes. This in itself is scarry, because it never agrees with me. I’m serious about my answer and time reference. How big of a 2×4 should I get to knock sense into the dim witted. My timiing my be off, but this BF( doesn’t have to represent Bird Flu) will go pandemic. gina
no way to KNOW what hasn’t happened yet.
“Mmmmm, very hard to see, the future is.”- Yoda
Certainty does not exist, but I give this a 50–50 shot to go pandemic this winter.
My feeling is that the PTB will keep it under control until January when the pilgrimage to Mecca takes place.
Tom DVM - I didn’t mean to suggest that you were “over the edge”. But I thought I remember you saying something about solar events in March (past March) of this year and it coinciding with the emergence of a pandemic strain. But again, I could be wrong. I don’t have the time to go back and search.
I’m a religous person and I’ve given thought to many of the things we are seeing, (ie: Global warming, pandemics [actually many diseases], terrorism, etc) being the Biblical end of times. Maybe it’s just my age, but I don’t recall even the threat of the super powers conducting a nuclear war being as ominous as some of the threats we face today. These are interesting times.
I’ve seen a lot of “predictions” here that have come and gone. Some of them have even changed :-) We continue to keep ourselves informed…and that’s a good thing. Just need to keep things in prospective.
JWB.. Why ? I already know something is going to happen in Oct. but why the 18th? Did you mean today and what is happening in Thailand? gina
Torange – at 12:58 - Why? Btw, Ramadan starts in a few days.
50–50
Hurricane Alley RN: What is happening in Thailand?
The Thai Military has staged a coup against the Prime Minister and pledged their loyalty to the King. At least that is what I heard on the radio a little while ago.
AVanarts - Just what you heard on the radio. Great! All we need now is for governments to fall apart before BF goes pandemic. The fog blanket is bad enough as it is. gina
Hurricane Alley RN
I meant to turn on the news on that particular day and time.
I agree with you that we don’t need governments to fall apart now, but they probably will soon anyhow.
Yes, I think there is a good probability it will start this winter. Last week a person I know who is in charge of emergency preparedness for our county said they expect seasonal influenza to begin here in November/December - if bf goes H-H at the same time regular influenza is circulating, we will have a real mess. Another friend, who is an ER nurse is urging preparedness and simply said “it’s coming - soon.” Coincidentally, yesterday my fortune cookie said “You find you know things without being told.” I pray we avoid this entirely, but my instincts tell me otherwise.
anonymous – at 03:01… good post, good speculation
as to me, I feel damned if I say yes and bound to eat crow if I say no. I’m putting $1,500 into a small solar system incase and another $1,500 into a new faster, bigger computer for work for “incase not”
A little over a month ago during the outbreak in Cikelet, I would have said YES THIS WINTER… now it’s been quiet and I’d say NO not this winter. Then there’s the living on borrowed time theory from sound sources and who in there right mind would ignore that warning?
Soooooo PREP PREP PREP cause the train is going to leave the station soon
No idea when the pandemic will start but reading this thread I have just remembered something that happended about 10 years ago. An aquaintance back then was an astrologer, a lady in her 50s maybe and one day out of the blue she stopped me in the supermarket and told me that she was moving back to her home town because something was going to happen in May 2007 that was big and bad and she wanted to go home before it occurred. It was something to do with something planetary that she had worked out on her charts. I wasn’t that impressed at the time, not being a particularly superstitious person and I suppose just humoured her. I had forgotten that until now, great! Now I have something else to worry about!
JWB - OK, come clean. I hate to be left guessing. If you know something - then spill the beans. What is going to happen on Oct.18. My personal crystal ball is like me for the moment…hazy. Darn it. gina
Moeb—The calm before the storm.
All I know is that the warnings seem more dire now than what they were 6 months ago when I started reading about this stuff. I worry about what is happening in Africa. It’s been quiet the last few weeks, but that has happened before. I don’t know, but the world powers seem pretty concerned at the moment. Like maybe they see something we don’t. I just hope it’s in 2007. My daughter is going overseas in December.
I’m all over the place - sometimes I doubt myself and say “this won’t happen and why do I have so much stuff?” and other times I’m “OMG this thing could break out next month. I need more stuff.” But, as Heddie and others ahve said, there are about a million other reasons to prep, AF is just one of them.
BB - you and I are living in parallel universes: I was also in Berkely for the Oakland Hills Fire, and down in LA LA land for the riots and Northridge. Was also here in CT for 9/11. You’d think all that would get me prepping, but it was more Katrina hammering friends and loved ones that really motivated me - that and leraning more about how close we are to H2H.
FrenchieGirl – at 13:02 Torange – at 12:58 - Why? Btw, Ramadan starts in a few days.
Because a LOT of people get together, wall to wall, sholder to sholder, from all over the world. This could be bad for xdr-tb also.
Hurricane Alley RN – at 13:42 JWB - OK, come clean. I hate to be left guessing
Ah, Gina, JWB is pulling your leg. He/She pulled that date and time out of his/her you-know-what. It’s a joke. : )
Torange – at 15:41 Because a LOT of people get together, wall to wall, sholder to sholder, from all over the world.
Are you referring to Ramadan, which will begin ~September 24 this year, or the greater Hajj which begins on the eighth day of Dhu al-Hijjah (December 18 this year)?
It is the Hajj which is most known for the mass gatherings; at Mecca, Mina, and Mount Arafat. Ramadan is a time of personal worship and incorporates daytime fasting and abstention from other activities. There are not mass gatherings during Ramadan, to the best of my knowledge.
I don’t think we are in for the Pandemic this year, but I think a lot will happen on the last day of Ramedan. I feel uneasy about matters unrelated to bird flu. As this is a bird flu site, I won’t elaborate.
A quick question for the practitioners—could bf be mistaken for tb? dr or otherwise? My limited clinical knowledge tells me no, but I need to double check with the hive mind.
enza. I am not a medical practioner but TB is another zoonosis.
You are quite correct…the two should not be confused.
If we escape anything during the bird migration, then my guess is next winter that is unless a traveler brings it into the country which could happen anytime.
Thanks TomDVM. Just want to make sure H5N1 doesn’t sneak in undetected as something else.
XanonymousX - Darn, you just messed up my daydream. I was dreaming they broke their neck trying to rush back and answer my post. They need to be careful of posting absolute dates and times. It could come back and peck them on the butt. Thanks for the head up. gina
I’ve just changed my vote to sometime in next 6 months. This change is because I just read about a 3 yr old Iraqi boy in Baghdad was confirmed to have the bird flu. With all of our marines,etc stationed in that country it’s very likely that one of them or more will bring it home..
Nabarro did not say “borrowed time”… he said “God Given Time”
If Indo bubbles up any more in the next month or so I will assume that the virus has found a way to work its way through a tamiflu blanket and I will say ‘yes’. And I will be only too happy to join in the crow smorgasbord/potluck. If server space were not so valuable it would be fun to have an (optimistic) thread of pretend crow recipes in case ts does not htf.
new name – at 17:15 remember that the Iraqi boy that is in the news today was from a case back in March. He recovered.
Goju. I know there probably is a difference between the two statements but could you give me your impression of what he meant by the difference? Thanks.
the use of God in his statement means 2 things to me…
1 - we should have been in pandemic already and the time given is a benevolent thing given to us to allow us to prepare 2 - that we are dealing with an event of biblical proportions.
Tom- I am not sure what Goju may mean but to me: borrowed time= an uncertain, usually limited period of time extending beyond or postponing the occurrence of something inevitable. God given time = an indeterminate amount of time) including infinite) that only God knows.
so “God given time” means to me that we just do not and cannot know if or when it will happen (if at all); if it was “borrowed time” it would be an inevitable event.
It is one of those IF or WHEN type of things.
DnnisC Goju thanks. It is such an unusual thing for a regulator to say…but I can’t help to have a great deal of admiration for Dr. Nabarro especially when you read his bio and in respect to the act of courage I posted on today in the news thread where he stood up to the gross incompetence of the World Health Organization and then didn’t back down even though Dick told him to publically and disrespectfully and unprofessionally.
The only time I might be tempted to use the statement would be when I was feeling totally overwhelmed with a situation for whatever reason…
…for example, if I had lost control completely of a situation that I had previously or thought I had previously under control.
I agree with Nabarro’s borrowed time comment. I find it strange that while the news has slowed a bit and there are no alarming clusters we are passionately following, a sense of dread has effected all of the flu boards. I have a gut feeling that tells me that this will happen in the next 6 to 8 months. This is not supported by facts but maybe from my own internilized analysis of the situation. Call it intuition. Right now my biggest fear is that the pandemic may have already started in increasing clusters in China that they are keeping it quiet from the world. I worry about the sequences that have not all been released. It is what we don’t know that worries me the most.
I have preps now and that allows me to enjoy everday life more. I can live my life fully and know that a corner of my mind is always watching.
blinks three times
yer all living on borrowed time I tell ya.. and you can quote me… or er.. Dr. Nabarro if you prefer. As to god.. goddess, enlightened being.. dark light… evil thoughts… whatever? I suspect such an entity could be losing patience with mankind.
I read an article the other day that said that the experts, virologists, etc. are befuddled why it hasn’t taken off yet. They fully expected it to have gone ballistic by now and don’t comprehend what is holding it back. I think this is in keeping with what Nabarro said about god-given time and Goju’s interpretation of that: ie, for all intents and purposes, we should be in the middle of Panflu right now.
moeb: I agree with Rob T that we really do not know and my own feelings are that there is a box we cannot see into with three or four green marbles and one black one. Each year we draw out a marble. If it is not black, we replace the green one and draw again next year. So, it is fairly likely any time but might not hit for a while. I find this way is helpful in getting others to take the problem seriously - maybe too little urgency but more willingness not to blow it all off after six months. It is a real challenge to keep the right emotional state for this thing. We have to keep informed and alert, always aware of something really awful looming (which it is human nature to deny or avoid) but still not get obsessed. I do think a pandemic is inevitable before very long but am unsure about the damage it will do.
I like your box and marbles analogy… part of me DOES expect to look back on this time as one of my truly loony episodes and laugh. But because the odds for pandemic favor H5N1, I’d be a real idiot to not pay close attention to the facts. Unfortunately the facts, stunted as they are… point to something far grimmer than any vision the pandemic of 1918 brings fourth.
We all live dual lives now… for the most part I’d say we’re all managing them pretty much the same, that’s what I think this thread is about
My family doctor thinks this winter! If it does start(2007) I am hoping it starts in Iran then to France, Russia etc.
Endless speculation about the unknowable is pointless. Prepare to the extent that makes you feel comfortable….then get a hobby.
Dennis in Colorado – at 16:03
Torange – at 15:41 Because a LOT of people get together, wall to wall, sholder to sholder, from all over the world.
Are you referring to Ramadan, which will begin ~September 24 this year, or the greater Hajj which begins on the eighth day of Dhu al-Hijjah (December 18 this year)? It is the Hajj which is most known for the mass gatherings; at Mecca, Mina, and Mount Arafat. Ramadan is a time of personal worship and incorporates daytime fasting and abstention from other activities. There are not mass gatherings during Ramadan, to the best of my knowledge.
I am referring to the Hajj. With the bf going more H2H each month, large international gatherings are a bad idea. In the original post, I said that the PTB would be able to keep it under control until then. But it would be difficult to throw a tamiflu blanket over several million people. Then as they go home, the bf will go everywhere. Instant pandemic.
Nature takes its course and sometimes it works on its own timeframe which is not our timeframe. I do believe that farmers and farmer’s veterinarians see natures timetable more clearly because they are emersed in it all the time…and can be the victims of nature at the drop of a hat, at times.
The last two outbreaks of blackleg disease in my locality were about forty years apart…that may be a moment in nature’s time but it was long enough for the rest of us to forget that the threat really existed.
There was a Canadian scientist who for four decades implored the powers that be, to put a tsunami warning sytem in the Indian Ocean. I am quite sure that this gentlemen probably questioned and requestioned his judgement the longer the time period stretched out for…I think this is human nature.
We have a number of posters from the western edge of North America who live with the real risk of a catastrophic earthquake…the longer that it doesn’t happen…complacency starts in…again this is human nature and there may be an evolutionary basis for it.
With respect to H5N1…we have been watching the pot simmer for nine years, it even looked for a time that the flame might just go out, but it didn’t but nothing seems to be changing…we have been warned but the monster isn’t at the door…we are starting to second guess our commitment to the cause…we are starting to believe that we may have it wrong.
H5N1 is not working on our time…it is following its timetable…it is in a relentless march which started in 2003 and will end when it ends.
Remember the world on Dec 25, 2004 and then the world on Dec 27…and the feeling that of course a tsunami would happen…you would have to be a fool not to know that. etc.
I won’t go into the other example of this from recent history.
Nature is the ultimate terrorist…the human terrorists are pretenders, nothing else…
…it has lulled us to sleep…we are snoring away…believe me…the alarm will go off.
I am living life fuller, but differently than I would have, if I were not absolutely certain that some strain of panflu with some painful degree of disruption is coming our way. A worldwide shakedown of our technological pyramid is certain by 2012. I would bet my life on it, and in a sense I am. I have made major life decisions with that perceived fact in mind. Call me crazy, but that is where the “data, timing, and momentum” have led me.
fluwiki must drive you nuts.. but yer hooked, right? or is this your hobby
Now Medical Maven, 2012 is that mayan thing crossed with the solar flare thing. (Shrugs) I guess if I make it that long, that’ll be interesting. And then as your event rolls around, my brother can say “I told you so” meanwhile if we escape H5N1 during those intervening six years, I’ll enjoy my platters of crow with the rest of you
moeb-If you read my earlier post on this thread, I give a 95 per cent probablity to H5N1 being “it”.
I think the situation is spiriling out of control in indonesia, India, africa and china. i think the WHO, and UN know this. I think the WHO is rudderless with their attention dieverted towards continuity of leadership. I thin nabarro is running scared of being bitch slapped again for telling the truth so he is trying to walk a very tight rope. At some point he will have to come clean. If we see him suddenly dissapear i will shut down.
i believe H5N1 is now being transmitted in at least 50% of the cases H2H - inefficient and limited but gaining momentum and can break out at any time effecient and sustained. There are just too many huge slum populations in those areas to stop it.
Time is running out. God Given Time is not Borrowed time. It is a merciful thing because the endgame will be devistating.
In my efforts to build a clear easy to understand and communicate story to my town, I have dumbed it down to this: While the “experts” say the CFR must come down, from 2003–2006 i have seen it go up … way up… to 80 or so % with medical care in hospitals that have experience treating BF. I believe the virus has sustained a 100% kill rate while at the smae time managed to find its way into some vector that is wandering around, unaffected… perhaps an HIV infected human who shows no symptoms or a rat or cat or duck or fly or mosquito.
the time to get prepared is running short. people are not listening.
We, on these boards, are the only hope we have - and i use the word “hope” specially for this… since i truely believe that there is no hope.
A pandemic of H5N1 is coming. It will be very very bad. What will make it worse is the collateral damage caused by inaction of TPTB, the media AND the members of these boards that see the writing on the wall and continue to DO NOTHING!
WE could be the heros and save humanity a terrible tragedy. I am as prepped as the houses around me and the houses around them and so on throughout this great nation of ours.
WE are the only ones who can be brave enough to make a difference - PLEASE do not be afraid of coming out… of telling what you know… of sharing your hard earned knowledge… of letting “them” know what you have done in preparation. If this is done right, you may survive. I do not care if you have costco in your basement. I do not care if you have an infantry of M16 toting soldiers to protect your home. You will not survive what is coming if your neighbors are not prepped.
IT IS TIME….. rise up and be heard… by every local newspaper and tv and radio station and town council. YOU ARE THE EXPERTS You know everything about the virus and a pandemics horrendous effect on humanity.
IT IS TIME TO ACT.
somebody bitch slap that guy
sorry.. my sense of humor got the better of me, you do sound a wee strident there Gogu, and who knows.. maybe yer not cra .. I mean maybe yer right.
Medical Maven are you suggesting H5N1 will wait til 2012 or that it’s going to be around for six years finishing us off?
and in a wry twist of fate moeb misses his cue to exit stage right
moeb-H5N1 could happen sooner (by late Fall 2007, 95 per cent probablility) or it could be a “horse race” between it and the other panflu candidates out there right up to 2012. In the latter scenario the new panflu of the 21st century gets to be the first panflu to shake us down and to see if we are capapble of withstanding a severe shock. H5N1 could closely follow the other unrelated panflu. Think about that.
DennisC – at 23:37
I am waiting for Revere to start a Worst case” thread with swans feet up. When that happens, I will know it is getting serious.
Well the swans are still feet down, but revere did have post today you might be interested in:
Must H5N1 moderate its virulence as it evolves?
A lot of neat technical stuff, but his bottom-line answer to the question he poses seems to be: No. Which means he’s come over to the dark side re: the worst case scenario, I think.
Goju;
Firstly, allow me to express both my admiration and gratitude for your activism in trying to wake up the wider community to this threat. I hope your meeting goes well and you get positive response and action from your local authorities.
Here in Australia, there is virtually no communication to the public about a pandemic, although there is “paper planning” going on at various levels of state and federal governments. These “plans” are based on an estimated mortality of 0.2%, according to the federal Department of Health. That is 40,000 deaths in a population of 20 million. And this is their worst case scenario. In a very real sense….God help us.
I have the same viewpoint as yourself. We will find it extremely difficult to exist in a community that is unprepared. I have been frustrated at every turn over the last 5 months to get the local people that matter to recognise the seriousness of the problem, let alone get an action plan together. I will therefore be very interested to see how you go with your efforts, and willing to try anything that works.
I have come to the conclusion that until the sheeple see it on TV, repeatedly, they won’t take the message seriously until the wolf is at the door.
Goju, I keep trying. I got someone else to listen to me this weekend, who had called me crazy 6 months ago. My husband now is listening and he is bringing it up at work. There are a few takers. I will be attending a pandemic planning meeting in the next month. I too fear for something this winter.
Monotreme. The evidence is irrefutable…everyone is on the dark side…its just that no one is talking…
…of course you are more than smart enough to already know this.
Medical Maven. Once again you hit the nail on the head.
moeb. keep doing what you do because you are doing it right!!
Goju The sincerity of your post is obvious. A number of us have suffered the ‘slings and arrows’ from past battles and are unsure of revisiting the pain…maybe flu wiki is our feeble attempt at getting the word out.
with all the messes to pick from, it would actually be amazing if we make it to 2010, IMHO.
Tom DVM – at 20:07
I once bought a holstein bull from my brother-in-law. He had it for a couple of years and all that time is was a nice calm bull, doing the things bulls do.
I purchased the bull and moved him over to my pasture. A week later he blindsided me while I was cutting a bale of hay. I kept him off of me by rolling on my back and kicking with my feet. He went to the sale barn later that week.
The moral of the story: Just because something in nature plays “nice” for a few years does not mean it will continue to do so. H5N1 is not “nice” now, and will not be “nice” in the future. We’ve just got to make sure we are not blindsided.
jt – at 20:04
I’m a little dumbfounded by your post… first that you know a doctor who takes this seriously (that’s great!) yet.. we can’t be wishing this starts in certain locations and moves to our perceived nemeses. I mean it’d be like me wishing the pope wouldn’t be wishy washy and stand up and say #$%# YOU! I meant every word I said and I said every word I meant. But of course he won’t and didn’t so it’s all malarky. at the very least can we sub france (remember the good frenchiegirl has done) and russia for say.. oh north korea and maybe hugo chavez’s personal compound/plane?
“Just because something in nature plays “nice” for a few years does not mean it will continue to do so.”
No one knows the truth of this statement better than those that live close to nature all the time. It can be your best friend or your worst nightmare.
Okieman your analogy was perfect.
By the way. Holstein bulls are notorious for being the most unpredictable and meanest of all bulls. I’m glad he didn’t get you.
Well I agree with you Goju, god given time…. Better use it wisely, cause it’s ticking away. Your right on the Who comments as well.
We all need to jump up and face our families and neighbours and get the ball rolling, or there isn’t going to be a ball. JMHO
good lord I finally got it IMHO is In My Humble Opinion (yes I’ve been to lazy to search the wiki for the definitions, besides that’s cheating)
The pandemic has not started. Well….. it takes a while for a pandemic to happen… it doesnt happen overnight… well it does sort of….. but like a pot of water, it gets hot with very little motion and before you know it… it comes to a boil.
I have been watching H5N1 since june 05. I have felt sick to my stomach numerous times and i have been paniced 4 times. Qinghai, Turkey, Zoo, Karo.
i am not paniced now. I am as calm as i have been in the last year.
I have very good hearing…. it is my business….. and i am hearing an alarm bell ringing ever since the conference and reading what is happening in that context.
The message is clear - start to prep now. I cant say it clearer. So i say it to you all… you who have prepped, or are prepping, or you new comers who are considering prepping.
Prepping every single home in this country is the only thing that will save us all. every one of us. It is possible. We put a man on the moon in ‘69. We certainly can get 2 weeks of food or more into every home in the land.
At least we can try.
Keeping on task here with original question: No
yes. When? No clue . . . guessing late 06 to middle 07.
moeb – at 22:44
GTSYOB
heck--- I don’t even know when winter officially starts. Where I live it’s flip-flp season nearly all year. I have no clue when this thing will start… I just know it will start. Hopefully after I figure out how to wash clothes without water and electricity… and some other important stuff.
hmmm looks at Oremus GTSYOB.. god (something something) your own business? I’ll ah… keep working on it
“Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:16 Yes but within year and a half,,,,,,,but could be this fall or winter also (close enough like horse shoes to count to me”
“Anon_451 – at 21:54 I don’t know. But if I read Dr Nabarro rigth, we are living on borrowed time”
“RobT – at 22:05 …As Osterholm says, the only thing we don’t know is the when and how bad. But it literally could be tomorrow, so why not just prepare like crazy for at least food/water at a minimum, and hang in there? “
Bird Guano – at 22:14, Dr Dave – at 05:04, Tom DVM – at 20:07:
Yes.
(And too many in town now know I know there is a clear and present danger the politicians and officials are choosing not to warn the public about. :-() Guess the only thing now is to keep trying to get more citizens and first responders to get worst-case info and not get blindsided. (That and get my own house in order.)
Goju - you already know from another thread that I have had some success in spreading the word by using the Flu Wiki news stories. I have been e-mailing a few articles daily to my DH (and other friends and relatives) who was passing them along to others at work. Finally a supervisor said they should have some workshops and take some action. I believe that these news articles have a great impact on people, sometimes more than an individual imploring others to prep. The one that really got everyone’s attention was the latest WHO Data on Bird Flu deaths. I think that most people don’t realize how high a figure that is. My thanks to everyone who contributes to the news thread.
Ooops - hit the wrong key
jt – at 20:04 — My family doctor thinks this winter! If it does start(2007) I am hoping it starts in Iran then to France, Russia etc.
Excuse-me???? I mean, if I’m stuck home with no electricity, worse if I am sick, you might be able to do without my funny and stupid contributions in the run-up to H5N1 reaching the USofA?
moeb – at 22:19 — jt – at 20:04 — at the very least can we sub france (remember the good frenchiegirl has done) and russia for say.. oh north korea and maybe hugo chavez’s personal compound/plane? - I’ll mind my French, but honest, I didn’t get that one. I spent the whole F.?ü%(c*%*”ç%?+° morning at the IRS and I’ve used up most of my grey cells for the day - Would you care to expand a little?
So because of you all, it’s going to be 60–40 instead of 50–50 yesterday, Na!
FrenchieGirl.. we love ya, yer bright, intelligent and you provide great inside info. so where ever you are, don’t go away :-)
Yes, FrenchieGirl, you add spice to our life. Hang around for the denouement, (good word from our co-founders, the French). God knows, wish they would give us a little slack from time to time. But, hey, you give yourselves no slack. (My mother was third-generation French).
Cheers! Bettya some of the utter scientific types get more irritation than fun by my feeble attempts at science… Hohohu… You’re not trying behavioural psych-up with me are you? Now, let me have it straight, I can take truth too (yeah!): “good FG has done” means what? “sub”’ = substitute????? and why? I really don’t get it. This IRS guy this morning, he just bled me to utmost lividity, my grey cells are blank…
As for yes or no, I said 50–50 yesterday, 60–40 today, and that’s rationalizing the whole thing for both scores. If I let my intuition (no insider knowledge) take over, it could be 80–20. Now shall I provide French cooking recipes for A/CrowFillet/Marsala/18Oct/2006–2.16pm/EST?
peace, calm, goodwill…. peace, calm, goodwill… (repeat as needed)
now where was I? Yes FrenchieGirl…. I meant “sub” as slang for substitute. I’m sure that Jt and I were only joking around. there are bad guys in the world, but I… don’t include France as among them. on the other hand if chirac makes a separate peace with Iran and then Iran gets the bomb. that would be very very bad.
meanwhile the thread says? percentage of those who think it’s sooner versus later… and speculation as to the possibility any of us really have the pulse in regards to “when” H5N1 comes a knocking
50–50, 60–40, 80–20 - Chirac, who is Chirac? The one that forgot to mention BF at the UN yesterday? He’s much too busy creaming his protégé for next year’s election to do deals behind his people’s back, no? No? Will let all of you know (of that and BF) when I see [someone] soon [end of month]
Wow - I so wish all of you were sitting in my living room having this discussion. Some real important things being said, with enough humor thrown in now and again to make it all bearable.
some pandemic humor …
Whats for dinner?
First one who falls asleep.
I honestly have no idea, although there do seem to be more news items lately on the subject. Just today I read this http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14910183/ on the MSN news site. I fear it might break this winter, but pray it doesn’t. I still have so much to prepare for, and when this virus does finally erupt I want to be as prepared as possible to survive until there is a vaccination available for the general population. Maybe by that time the illness will be less deadly. No one really knows what will happen until it does happen, but I fear what is coming. I just wish I had the money and time to be able to prepare faster.
I haven’t made any predictions until now. I feel like it will be H7N7 hitting this winter, possibly followed by a re-emergence of SARS (they have both been smoldering and under the radar for about the same time as H5N1 was before it re-emerged). H7N7 also looked like it was better at H2H than H5N1. Regarding efficient H5N1 H2H? Within 2 years.
Medical Maven. “(My mother was third-generation French)”
An Acadian or French Canadian philosopher and clairvoyant to boot!!. /;0)
moeb – at 07:37
I was just messing with you. I made it up. Glad To See You On Board. 8^)
that’s cool.. I like reading your posts.. most of them anyway, I had the suspicion that GTSYOB might = “your day is coming heathen” :-)
Dejure. As you just clearly pointed out, we are operating in a field of broad risk at the moment. Thanks for describing it so succinctly.
To the original question, Yes. My hunch is it will hit sometime in the next 18 months and that we are indeed living on borrowed time between now and the big “then.” One aspect that leads me to this conclusion is the comparative media silence about the on-going cases and H-H transmissions in SE Asia. No, I don’t believe that the media is under the control of some conspiratorial organization. What I believe is something I consider to be even worse: Human to human transmissions of H5N1 are now common enough to not be “news.”
And that scares me.
The H5N1 pot is on “continual boil” now and every viral swarm transferred from one person to another increases the chance that the viral winner, a variant that easily transmits H-H-H-world, will emerge from the transmissions. The dice are being rolled with each transmission, and it is just a matter of time for them to come up all 6s.
I’m with StinkinRose
prepper for life and get on with it. Look at all those preps kind of like stock market futures trading. Its money saved because prices always go up - not down.
If it happens this year- next year we’re probably as ready as we can be.
Yes my comment was intended to inject a little humor in a sad thread, and sadly I have some southern french bloodlines,(like the people,not govt) as well as eastern european. When/ if it comes , noone will be spared.
Oremus at 14:18 - Awww, I was sure GTSYOB meant “Go To Sleep You Ol’(Buzzard?)…
Thanks FrenchieGirl!!!
Yes or No??? Can’t do it.
What has changed in my opinion is before we all hoped we were wrong that it was going to go pandemic, now we all are in agreement that it is going to go pandemic, but we can’t know when. No one can answer the when for sure…not even the virus!