Goju, in another thread, produced these charts at a town meeting:
Assuming, that these numbers are correct can someone review my thinking?
On 10/19/1918, in Philladelphia, there were 13,000 deaths, per 100,000, that’s 13percent. If, you assume an attack rate of 30 percent and a 3 percent CFR, we should only be looking at 900 deaths (100,000 X 30 X .03). Instead, it’s almost 15 times that many.
Can somebody explain this to me?
On another note…when people say we must SIP for long periods of time…the charts clearly show the highest risk is at most, a few months.
Sorry..that should have been (100 X .30 X .03) = 900
I wish we could edit here on the wiki!! 100,000 X .30 X .03
although I should know this stuff, I too could use a refresher course on why 18 months? How long of time between waves and why?
thanks
and exactly how much money did congress allocate this year for pandemic prep? I believe the white house asked for 7.3 billion and got 3.5 billion, then it seems like there was a 2nd allocation of funds? Also, shouldn’t we toss in the money spent to send national guard troops to the border?
There are a few factors that help explain the differences: 1)The generally accepted figure of 30% attack rate is based across general population statistics, not Philly-specific. Certain parts of the country, especially east coast cities, got hammered quickly and unexpectedly and because of their urban density it spread like wildfire. Chances are the actual atack rate for Philly was much higher. There is evidence that certain countries also had much higher attack and CFR rates (India for example). 2) While there are decent stats on deaths, there are no decent stats on %ages ill but didn’t require professional treatment (recovered at home). Nor do we know how many were severely ill vs mild vs expsoed but never had any symptoms. 3) Statistics from back then were poor vs today’s standards. Combine #2 and #3 and that means we really don’t know what the attack rates and CFR were for specific areas. Given the lack of data you have to extrapolate numbers based on what little you have, making caveats along the way. Problem is that often the caveats get lost along the way and numbers turn into “fact.”
Here are some numbers from Navy Dept. Library
“Philadelphia’s population in 1918 was 1,700,000 with war industry adding another 300,000 transient workers. The passing of influenza through the city left an estimated 12,191 dead. In but 4 weeks, there were 47,094 reported cases.”
As far as SIP length, we don’t know that for sure either. If lots of people SIP initially but the virus is still circulating, once those people come out of SIP they risk catching it. I think part of the reason it spiked so quickly in 1918 then fell is because it hit so fast, hard and unexpectedly. There was no planning for SIP - it’s just that more were able to do it because of more rural locations, etc. vs now and also were less dependent on stores, etc. vs now. The US and other countries experienced more than wave, with some areas getting hit harder than others in subsequent waves.
But it appears to me, these charts don’t indicate a 18 month isolation is any better than a 6 week isolation. Maybe a little better…I’ll give you that.
But looking at the Navy Dept Library link above, it appears that it went as fast as it came. The duration seems less than 8 weeks (at least for the vast majority of the cases).
But the CFR and attack rate in Philly seem to be much ABOVE the general opinion (according to the chart). I’m beginning to think the chart is completely accurate. Especially after reading more from the Navy Dept Library link, provided by NJPreppy, with a total of just under 13K dead. The chart implies more, I think, with a spike at 13K and many more on either side of the spike.
Hi Patch.
The only conclusion I have reached in respect to the 1918 pandemic is that there was and is no way to tell what the CFR or mortality rates were.
As far as SIP goes…I would assume that only a very small porportion of the population could pull it off…I know that I wouldn’t be able to for any length of time…so I am not going to attempt it.
Anyone planning to SIP needs a back-up plan in case they have to break it. Back-up supplies of masks, gloves and disenfectants would be a good idea.
Philie had a leadership that did not take the flu pandemic seriously. They threw a gigantic parade to support the troops returning from WWI in Europe just as the pandemic rolled into town. The density of the crowds, the possibility that the returned troops were harboring additional strains of the virus, all needs to be considered.
New York City also made some obvious (in hindsight) errors. They never closed the schools there, for example, and large numbers of teachers and students dropped like flies. They just ran ads for new teachers, and for some reason, they always found more substitute teachers who were willing to come in and take the place of those who were stricken.
One aspect of the pandemic that needs to be looked at (so that we don’t make the same mistake) is the political response by various parties in various locales as politics did seem to play a part, and a major part in some areas. Barry goes into some detail about how the leadership in Philie was in denial, and perhaps criminally so, about the level of risk facing the city. In some parts of New York State the issue of pandemic became a political issue argued about in local elections and people used their stand on whether or not it was to be taken seriously as a feature in their platforms. So, in those two places, and probably in many others, politics got into the mix and most likely affected outcomes. A lesson for today, perhaps.
Patch: Also we may not have to SIP for 18 months, but supplies may be interrupted for that long a period as the pandemic moves about, striking our usual suppliers, some with more virulence or for longer periods than others. That may mean that we might need to consider where we will get our necessary supplies for during that more prolonged period, even if we do not have a high immediate risk of flu in our own locality (though I’m not certain how one would measure that with our mobile society) at a given time.