Continued from here
Not so sure it isn’t falling. Todays news thread shows pigs in Bali testing positive for bird flu antibodies. Perhaps this is Nimans mammal vector?
well today I went shopping and THOUGHT I HAD DIED AND GONE TO HEAVEN. One mile long isle of nothing but chocolate. I wanted to kiss the floor, it was such a reverant moment that I had to whisper…….there is a God. I stocked up on stuff for my preps and just hope I hid them well enough although those tootsie pops were sorta chanting my name. I took a good friend with me and she did nothing but laugh although she did real good on eating when I took her to lunch. what a wonderful day , and such beautiful fall weather. I didn’t worry about anything , we just had fun although I did get a lot of preps brought and finally put away. I thanked God for this beautiful day and pray that we get a lot more like it. :)
I agree, the sky is not falling, but…
a very severe pandemic may be imminent.
We I go swimming in Florida, there are lifeguards on the beach. One of their tasks is to look for sharks and warn the swimmers when to get out of the water. That is part of the function of the Wiki: to scan the ocean of life looking for the Great Pandemic Shark. I’m very happy that there are so many eyeballs looking at this. It allows me to enjoy my swim in the ocean of life with less anxiety. When the warning comes, I’ll be back on the beach (to SIP), grateful for the time I had to swim.
There is an interesting thread at Flu Clinic wherein GR reports on Dr. Osterholm’s Osterholm’s H5N1 Facts & Assessment of Risk.
I highly recommed it.
Monotreme-Just read through it. Ditto. Thanks for the thread. Confirms our concern. We are in terra incognito for this era. If “time” does flex or bend, it is surely doing it now.
what can I say… the thought of H5N1 drifting on the wind… is depressing beyond belief. WHAT? What is going on? takes a deep breath and repeats… the sky is not falling, the air is not full of virus… this is not happening
Monotreme GR’s report raises my PPF to about an 8.5…
The sky is not falling, but then again, they said the ceilings in the Big Digs tunnels were safe here in Boston. In spite of this, having most of the preps done, I have a sense of calm, irrational perhaps, but..
Monotreme… the link is rather sobering. I ordered 10 45lb buckets of grain today. After the comments at that link of 12 - 14 months without electricity, I’m off to find a manual grain grinder.
(I guess Chicken Little’s falling sky reminded me of The Little Red Hen’s baking bread.)
GRs report is very good… and once again frightening. The big difference i saw was in the Oil Co report. I was told they had it under control understaning what would happen if oil stopped. He was told they don’t care. They only want to survive as a company. I spoke with a very high level rep from Hess. I wonder who he spoke with.
Medical Maven – at 15:51 Elder Berry-It does look like we agree on most points. Except I would rather have people emotionally uncomfortable, and therefore more likely to be motivated to prep (and maybe to err on the side of prepping too much).
But there’s that flip of a coin chance that you scare the hell out of someone to the point they are paralyzed — too scared to begin any prep, or you turn ‘em off so much they refuse to prep just to spite you.
I think Dr. Osterholm’s comments are also validation for our concern. We are not worrying needlessly over something that is unlikely to occur. Also, we should not believe assurances that behind the scenes everything is under control. Equally important is his message that there are things we can do to improve our chances of survival. The bottom-up approach advocated by Nightowl and others is the only feasible one left, imo.
The sky is not falling, but at least some are able to see the cracks and its spreading ,,,,,,,,,,,,, to not pay heed one risks themselves and others
I’m-workin’-on-it at 21:39: Three things:
Time may be short. We may not have time to dilly-dally our way to a meaningful “prep”.
If the water has receded, and the fish are flopping a hundred yards out, do I tell them to run or walk inland. If I tell them to walk, I might as well have said nothing.
Sad to say, this could be one of those chokepoints in which the DNA gets radically sorted. In other words, who can see a threat for what it is and respond in a proactive manner instead of shooting the messenger or descending into other “mind games”.
Harsh?, you betchya. The walls may be closing in.
I’m afraid I have to agree with Medical Maven. People differ in their ability to handle stress. A severe pandemic will be very stressful. Do we worry about the people who cannot handle the truth or try to inform those who can? If we had infinite time, we would try to help both. If time is short then… we have to help the people who can be helped. Triage time.
Elder Berry
Thanks for the break. I certainly needed it! I laughed a lot on this thread. Especially your ‘multiple’ postings. :-)
Take care.
JWB
Re: Ebola not killing everyone… Vey good and pertinent question. I don’t know the answer but am looking forward to one. Re: BF will only kill 1/2 out of 100… Just alluding to the 1918 pandemic where 50 million died from a world population of 1.8 billion. Was I trying to be funny and lighten up the situation, or be serious? Both. the lighter side of this avian flu is you probably ain’t gonna die…but whether someone you know will depends on a joint effort in preparing to forgo social interaction’s/wearing PPE/demanding Tamiflu from our governments(with our tax-dollars)/…and most of all a will to stop air travel. I think the will to stop air travel will not be there…so be prepared on the other counts. I was being seriously funny.
anonymous – at 00:53 - History (September 11, 2001) shows that we CAN stop air travel, but not until it is too late.
TRay75-at 1:01- so what happened there? Did they stop all flight’s going to the U.S?
It’s interesting, and relevant in the extreme.
If we haven’t got a difinitive answer on an appropriate mask,then Yes, it has!
Monotreme wrote:
--------------------------------------
There is an interesting thread at Flu Clinic wherein GR reports on Dr. Osterholm’s Osterholm’s H5N1 Facts & Assessment of Risk.
I highly recommed it.
then you might also be interested to read this:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9405
Monotreme, how about an update of your pandemic probability
estimate and victims expectation value ? Are you also more concerned
now than you were earlier this year ? I’d prefer, if you could exclude
the Chinese pigs, the retracted sequences, the missing soldier-sequence
from your consideration, but I know, this will be hard.
sets a few mous~ traps around… the place seems to be infested. As mentioned above.. ebola is not airborne, ergo not as easily transmissible as flu virus. and it takes no genius to see they WILL close borders and shut down airlines. the facts support doing so and although the simulations show it to be a flawed course of action, TPTB won’t be able to help themselves.
and mous~ plainly monotreme (who’s opinion dwarfs yours like a flea compared to jupiter), firmly believes this is coming.
smacks myself for being grumpy at four in the morning… and goes back to bed
Monotreme – at 22:50 … we have to help the people who can be helped. Triage time.
My thoughts exactly. I have been trying to get extended family members to prep since last January. Some are doing very well. Others know they should but aren’t doing a thing. I’ve finally written them off and am now focusing on helping more members of the community at large. People who can handle the facts will prep. I’m through trying to “convert” those whose defenses are so overdeveloped that they refuse to help themselves.
Moeb-at6:36- Good to hear that they will close down air travel/boerders…just wondering what the possible flaws of this are? You said …”the simulations show…”.
good morning, I think it depends on how fast things move… the “gut” reaction will be to shut the airlines down immediately. certainly from any location effected by pandemic. there will be a lot of people clamoring to get home. probably they will be able to make there way to various countries considered safe and possibly fly home from there. t commercial priority items and certain freight will have to flow. there will of course be military flights and government flights. tourism is an unaffordable option. airlines won’t want to fly anyway.
smiles and falls over into a field of? daisies cause it sure isn’t spinach. soft white clouds pass slowly overhead and a bee lazily circles my head, finally landing on the tip of my nose. after a brief pause the bee crawls up between my eyes and shouts. wake up bozo
snow white stops by to see if the bee stung me… I blink, thinking this isn’t happening. I must be on the fantasy thread
What’s going on moeb? You said something about simulation’s. I understand people wanting to get home- but when there’s a pandemic on. (yeh…it’s complex). Maybe TPTB should be telling people to come home or risk being stranded?
TPTB are saying they won’t shut down airlines.. except here and there where they let slip that they might… there reasoning as they explain it is that computer simulations show it will buy time but not stem the flow of pandemic flu. Recently a study surfaced based on the 911 grounding of air flights. The researchers were able to show a definite correlation between the slowing of regular flu with the non flying habits of the public shortly after 911. This report provides sound reasoning for limiting air travel. Much of the rest is a logical conclusion of that reasoning.
I’ve notice there has been no real further conversation concerning national guard troops to the border.. I do believe they are there to stem the flow of illegal immigrants….. the one’s who are said likely to flee to the United States to seek treatment for pandemic flu
Blue I don’t have readily the links to the simulation reports, they are probably on the wiki somewhere. I’m sure they can be found somewhere
(waves at elder berry knowing he had much higher expectations for this thread) :-)
Michelle in OK – at 21:35 Monotreme… the link is rather sobering. I ordered 10 45lb buckets of grain today. After the comments at that link of 12 - 14 months without electricity, I’m off to find a manual grain grinder.
Michelle, Don’t waste your money on the Back to Basics grinder. Will suggested the Family Grain Mill to me. Got it. It’s worth the money. Ordered from AAOOB. Had to wait for three weeks as was on back order.
Blue – at 09:43 Maybe TPTB should be telling people to come home or risk being stranded?
You mean now? That is never going to happen. And if TPTB do make such an announcement when it’s obvious that pandemic has started, well, we saw how well the evacuation of Lebanon went during the recent conflict with Israel. However, if TPTB do make such an announcement (again, I think hell will freeze before that happens), THAT would certainly be a none-too-subtle signal that it is time to duck and cover.
Edna Mode 10:11
What site did you use for your grain order?
I think I needed to expand on my post earlier about air travel and 9/11.
What I was inferring was that we can indeed shut down air travel if TPTB dictate it, but just like 9/11 and Katrina, the response will be after the fact of confirmation, not before, and by that time worthless in any real sense of containment. Besides, with air travel shut down, at least internally, hundreds of thousands will be scrambling to get on trains, buses, rental cars, or any other means to “get home”. So the spread slows to 75 MPH rather than 450 to 500 MPH. The problem then becomes one of those thousands forced from planes now hitting gas stations, rail and bus terminals, fast food stops, and hotels or emergency shelters as they try to get back to their families.
Airports are OK for a few hours as a shelter, but most would not work for long term confinement because those $5 cups of Starbucks coffee and $4 pretzels won’t last long, nor will their be adequate sanitary facilities to handle people beginning to get sick if the monster is loose amongst them. It will take setting up triage and processing to temporary holding “quarantine” areas to get the people off the planes and out of crowding to slow the spread. Once the incubation period has passed, they could be released to be transported home by screened flights or ground transport, but the logistical issues get big quickly. It looks like a lose - lose scenario either way.
As long as this chart keeps going up, the sky is falling.
Demographics of influenza A/H5N1 in humans
Believe me, I’d like to close my eyes and move on. After all, life is good right now. I’d like to spend my money on a boat, motorcycle, hot rod, party barge, quads, toy hauler, RV, etc. A lot of people are spending their money this way and life is one big party. Too bad they don’t know or don’t want to know what’s coming because those toys won’t feed them.
In the mean time I have more preps to buy. Too bad I’m missing the party but for me the sky is falling.
The ambiguity of it all- that’s why no one on the street give’s a hoot(or atleast pretends to not care).
I do have a dream though, It’s an ultimate survival RV with:
Solar panels Huge propane tank Huge diesel tank Huge water tank A lot of storage space for food and supplies
I could go on and on. Too bad I can’t afford it:)
no name – at 11:24 Edna Mode 10:11
What site did you use for your grain order?
I ordered my grains from Honeyville (www.honeyvillegrain.com), and I bought some from Sam’s Club. But if you’re looking for the address of the place I ordered my grain mill from, it’s www.aaoobfoods.com. If you don’t want everyone at work to look at you weird, make sure your volume on your computer is turned down before visiting AAOOB. Honeyville doesn’t sell grain mills. AAOOB sells all sorts of stuff, but the shipping is exorbitant, so I didn’t order anything other than the grain mill from them.
Are they going to close border’s in time? Then we will know if the sky is falling or not!
Heard in the radio news the other day that Boeing has a contract for some sort of border crossing containment. Exactly what I didn’t hear, though assuming it was for the Mexico, U.S.A. border.