In the thread “Canadian Preppers”
MaMa – at 11:27
it was mentioned that the Canadian government will coordinate all messages and tell the public only when it is confirmed to be sustained H2H.
It just occurred to me that this is like trying to catch a falling knife - the phrase popularized by the investor community. If this is how the government invests our money, you will have everybody all over them, and yet in the ‘investment’ on what to do with a possible severe pandemic flu, that’s exactly what the offical thinking is.
I also notice as the recent and still current events in Medan/Indonesia unfolds, there seems to be a herd mindset of determining whether THIS is the one cluster that will turn H2H - much like the top of a boom market when everyone is watching the tickler.
There are also threads here on “Personal Trigger Point”, ‘when it’s time to go’, ‘Thinking too much about bird flu’. I think we are all attempting the same thing - to catch the falling knife.
If it is generally accepted that mutation is random, then no one knows when TSHTF. The plans for preparation should not be based on ‘watching the tickler’. The other wisdom that I can glean from the investment community is ‘don’t fight the tape’.
Government behaviour is even more difficult to comprehend. It is like trying to catch the horse after the barn door is open. Business as usual and ignoring worsening signs (fighting the tape) e.g. bigger and bigger clusters.
Alan Greenspan ones coined “irrational exuberance”. What is happening now is irrational indeed, only difference is not exuberance, but fear - on the one hand denial, on the other hand stampede.
Before the first great crash of the stock market, wasn’t it common place to try to catch the top of the market (which of course turned out to be the falling knife). With the crash, everyone smartens up and new strategies were invented. Hope we don’t have to pay the same price in trying to catch the panflu.
I am not in the investment industry so if I make a grave error, correct me by all means.
ANON-YYZ — 03:10
A vivid and thought provoking post. Thank you. I agree, and feel we must be prepared to ‘lock down’ early even if on a false alarum and then emerge, sheepishly perhaps, in two or three days if the threat has receded.
The greedy notion of living normally, suddenly doing last minute preps and, perfect timing, just getting into our SIP mode at the last second is a folly that has been killing us throughout recorded history… I did a post paralleling Pompeii just yesterday. Same idea, I believe.
Good luck, friend.
ANON-YYZ – at 03:10 you watch the ‘ticker’ and apply knowledge of the market (which includes experience with past markets) to try to predict where the current market is headed and to ‘get out in front of it’ if possible.
As Nikolai has so rightly stated, we must be prepared to ‘lock down’ early even if on a false alarum and then emerge, sheepishly perhaps, in two or three days if the threat has receded.
The key here is in paying attention to what is happening in the hopes that we will be able to identify sustained H2H transmission and self-quarantine before it arrives on our doorstep.
ANON-YYZ – at 03:10
“Hope we don’t have to pay the same price in trying to catch the panflu. “
Hope we don’t have to pay the same price in trying to avoid being caught by the panflu with out pants down. No pun intended.
Cache Cow – at 05:52 No one can watch the tickler tape 7 x 24 and have all the right information to predict timing.
My point is just try to steadily increase the level of preparedness with available resources and start as soon as possible. Don’t try to ‘time the market’. Eccles and Anon_22 had previously posted strategies for graduated preparation.
Absolutely!
The sooner WE get prepped, the sooner WalMart or the corner grocery will re-order so our unprepared neighbors might find stuff on the shelves when TSHTF. IMHO, prepping NOW benefits the whole community.
Wow! That’s a lot of all CAPS for me. Maybe I should take a nap — as soon as I get back from Costco…
;-)
ANON-YYZ. About once a week, I come across a piece of writing on flu wiki that makes me give my head a shake and look at things totally differently: yours is the latest piece of remarkable writing I have seen.
The reaction of Governments and specifically the WHO have perplexed me without having a few words to describe my frustration.
Downplaying an imminent risk to supposedly prevent panic wouldn’t make sense to my dog.
Downplaying an imminent risk to avoid confronting the realities of the situation makes no sense.
Saying it is only a disease of birds, makes no sense unless you have irrefutable proof that this disease will stop its steady adaption into humans as well as other mammalian species makes no sense.
Stating that we will have an effective vaccine and effective antivirals and effective healthcare at some point in the future for a nondescript pandemic makes no sense as every piece of evidence indicates that this is not remotely true.
‘CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE’ captures my frustration perfectly…and the end result of this statement is captured perfectly without saying a word.
Thanks!!!
Tom DVM – at 13:09
Thanks for your kindest words.
I also hope the main stream media gets the picture, or a cartoon. LOL
“Downplaying an imminent risk to supposedly prevent panic wouldn’t make sense to my dog.”
Finally! I dog I like! (Of course, Tom DVM *would* have a very well-trained dog…)
…and, “tell the public only when it is confirmed to be sustained H2H.”…
That is
the “Preparing to Fail the public by Failing to Prepare the Public”,
“Emperor’s New Clothes in Dr.Caligari’s Cabinet”,
“Tell Me That I’m Dreaming, Somebody-pinch-me!”
incredible, bad, watch-fatal-historic-blunder-in-progress ….
Ar-r-r-r-r-r-gghh!…
(that “don’t tell until it starts” is exactly the offical line locally here, too)
The outright lies, and misleading spin, to keep the public from using the time to be able to mitigate the losses is the worst thing I’ve ever witnessed personally.
When I look at the people and children in my community, or look at the faces of people anywhere in the world, and think of the numbers that will die, I don’t see how the officals can stand to do this. It will just make the outcomes worse long-term for their families, too.
It is the public that doesn’t want to accept it. Sort of a Moebus ring of denial,has ensued. Don’t cause panic, it might cause economic collapse of the travel industry, the airline industry, and all that goes into every countries intricate economy. Or economic collapse because people are dying like flies and there is noone who can or will run everything that goes into a normally functioning world in our times. Either end of the strip, and you have calamity. So they inch along at the edge of a precipace, very, very gingerly and hope the whole thing doesn’t collapse into an avalanche that buries us all.
I just have to say that I love the genuine compassion that so many of you express here — I know that there will be a lot of people who need help & I feel much better about there being a sprinkling of people with good ethics & kind hearts to help out!
Lily
“So they inch along at the edge of a precipace, very, very gingerly and hope the whole thing doesn’t collapse into an avalanche that buries us all.”
I couldn’t say it nearly as well as you just did.
They are using semantics instead of science…a battle they will surely lose and take us down with them.
I continue to feel this thread deserves great attention.
BUMPED.
Now that the Sumatra cluster is no longer a ‘clear and present danger’, we should be able to think more rationally about what our strategies are for preparation and the rate of escalating the preparation.
There seems to be two schools of thought:
A. we cannot effectively predict when it becomes pandemic, so prepare for the worst at the rate we can afford and hope for the best; and
B. we have a good chance of predicting when it’s going to become pandemic (do Niman and the WHO both hope they can do this?) so let’s only do minimal preparations, perhaps even plan out what needs to be purchased or installed, but only escalate the rate of preparation when the ‘signal’ is loud and clear - let’s not cause unnecessary panic.
Personally, I still feel it is very difficult to catch the falling knife. I am not a day trader by profession, so I am unable to maintain this intense level of focus and alertness for extended period of time.
It may be thrilling and addictive to watch the virus ‘mutate’ and catch it in time, but if we have just one miss, we may very well be dead.
I will leave the bleeding edge research to the scientists but plan on the basis of no new breakthrough. I think that is the only responsible course of action one can propose.
The stuff that any society can do that will make the biggest difference in saving lives ALL involve a huge amount of planning, co-ordination, education, budgets, practice, triage, etc etc. NONE of this can be done in anything shorter than months. But pandemic viruses tend to break out much much faster than that. So waiting for more indicators or trying to predict when is foolhardy and irresponsible, IMHO.
Hi ANON YYZ. Let’s say hypothetically that every withheld sequence is released. The bottom line is that although it may be interesting from a scientific perspective and to be used as a predictor in the future, we know very little about how and where the virulence and transmissility quotients are in influenza viruses.
If we assume the worst, then we have a pretty good idea that the vaccines we can make and existing antivirals will have limited usefulness. Our current knowledge of antivirals and vaccines is also primitive and therefore limited…
…It seems to me that the blood is already running but we are blind and too insensitive to see or feel it.
What we can do in advance is increase production of supportive therapies such as antibiotics, oral eletrolytes, anti-fever drugs and prednisolone and work out treatment protocols and distribution systems that will work on minimal manpower and without exposing citizens to influenza needlessly and making things only worse.
Secondly, a ‘just in time’ approach to things has us in a problem with infrastructure and specifically food…this could also be dealt with now…
…to have false security in magic technological pills such as vaccines and antivirals takes away from our ability to put our limited effort and resources into areas that really will save lives.
Tom DVM – at 16:30
“Let’s say hypothetically that every withheld sequence is released.”
I agree with complete transparency, from all parties. It removes some self inflicted uncertainties. It will definitely help. Will it solve all our problems right away? Probably not.
If one can predict now with 100% accuracy that the pandemic will hit in 2 weeks, how would our position be different than now? We are simply not ready. We cannot ramp up capacity. We are wasting our time watching the knife fall when we should be preparing the best we could.
If one can predict now with 100% accuracy that the pandemic will NOT hit in 5 years, how would our options be better? We will have more people saying let’s not prepare for it. Let’s find the cure. Hope begets hope, losing precious time.
Both are of course big IF’s, ever.
Resources, energy and focus consumed in finding out the ‘magic moment’ are better used to prepare for the worst, build contingencies, educate the public etc. Once those are done, we may be able to afford the luxury of ‘star gazing’ or ‘flu watching’, almost like Y2K because we would have a reasonable chance of survival.
This reminds me of the deer freezing in the middle of the roadway staring into the headlights - the only expected outcome is death and destruction.
Over the past several months as I’ve prepped for our family I have come to see how obvious our “just in time” economy will impact us during a pandemic. I live near a large city and in the past I could always find the previously purchased item even if it meant an hour drive. That is no longer the case.
There have been so many items that I’ve searched for and had to make several trips before finding them. I live in an area with a booming economy, lots of money around, lots of big box stores and people willing to spend. But finding things is so much tougher.
This may be a cost-savings to the retailers but it isn’t a savings to me. Why? You might think I appreciate the lower cost items because retailers have less cost to manage inventory. It isn’t less cost if I now need to stock it because they don’t.
Talk about the perfect storm for a pandemic to hit with this business model being used all over North America. Those that don’t prepare for the future are doomed.
Nikolai---Sydney – at 03:27
There was a special on TV last evening about Krakatoa and its erruption in 1883. Same thing as Pomeii.
crfullmoon – at 15:12
“don’t tell until it starts is exactly the offical line locally here, too”
The sudden news vacuum (blackout?) of reported cases now makes complete sense. I don’t think it is just Canada or your region alone, crfullmoon. It seems since the market took that dive on the heels of Indo human cluster reports, all reporting has stopped. A deafening silence. Perhaps there are no more human cases but it does seem now the “official” line is that we will not hear anymore until it is too late. If they can succeed in suppressing the info, that is.
Again, we await an intrepid soul who will risk their future and release vital information to the public. I extend the knife metaphor to someone who may be willing to fall on this sword.
flu friend, I’ve been thinking about the same thing. It’s like somebody flipped a switch and shut down all the info coming out of Indonesia. It’s strange that at the end of May there were a number of new cases each week and now there is nothing. If anyone, I suspect the the Indonesian government may be leaning on the press to limit reporting on BF. Indonesia certainly took some heat in May - heat that I am sure the gov’t did not appreciate. However, I must concede that perhaps the efforts to contain BF have temporarily suceeded. Let’s hope…
banshee,
“If anyone, I suspect the the Indonesian government may be leaning on the press to limit reporting on BF.”
Don’t forget that straight after the earthquake they declared a state of emergency. I said at the time this usually means less press freedom, because emergency laws allow governments to arrest and imprison without trial, etc, in a country where rule of law is tenuous at the best of times.
So now I don’t know whether there are fewer/no cases or its just the press doing self censorship.
Or the government “encouraging” fewer stories on BF. Don’t forget that they initially covered up BF in Indonesia to protect the poultry industry.
How likely is it that the thing just fizzled out and we are scaring ourselves over nothing? My own take: not likely, though possible - completely unscientific.
ANON-YYZ, that is also a possibility that cannot be ruled out. That is why the situation is so frustrating. There a number of plausible explanations that span from one end of the spectrum to the other.
It is also possible that we are entering the slow season. If you look at the chart for 2005, the number of cases slowed right down around now.
Are there ‘boots on the ground’ that will give us more insight or verification?
Hi everyone. For what its worth, I don’t think we should take anything from the lull that we are now in. This follows the same pattern as seasonal influenza’s and has been occuring with H5N1 for the last nine years.
The same thing happened last year after Q. lake in China. It was announced with great fanfare in May 2005, then all the experts said sick birds can’t fly and then in October/November they turned out to wrong again; not because they are not world renowned experts but because H5N1 is a ‘Freak’…
…I would have been surprised if we did not have the normal quiescent period this summer.
H5N1 has itself pretty well set up to do some serious damage next winter.
I think we should take this time to relax and enjoy ourselves, continue discussions to get some ethics back into this process (sequence and seroprevalence data released)…and to prepare for what appears inevitable…
…it is just that the scientific community does not have enough basic information about virulence and transmissibility to give an accurate estimate as to onset time period.
Tom DVM – at 19:24
Agreed. No point in worrying about something we can’t monitor.
Back to steady pace preps.
ANON YYZ I agree.
This quiescent period is one of great opportunity for the WHO to become reinstated as a respected member of the scientific community.
What do you think are the odds?
Tom DVM – at 19:39
Let’s talk in the WHO3 thread.
Nikolai---Sydney – at 03:27 wrote:
<snip>
>The greedy notion of living normally, suddenly doing last minute preps and, perfect timing, just getting into our SIP mode at the last second is a folly that has been killing us throughout recorded history… I did a post paralleling Pompeii just yesterday. Same idea, I believe.<
The problem with using Pompeii as an example is, they didn’t know how much danger they were in. Vesuvius had been quiet for decades and few loclas even knew it was a volcano, let alone that it could wipe out everything around it for miles. (Ironically one of the few men who might have known the danger, the great scholar Pliny the Elder, who was commander of the fleet at nearby Misenum, died entering the area while the eruption was still going on, dropped by poison gas from the volcano before he could warn or rescue anyone). It was ignorence of the danger, combined with fear and uncertainty about what was happening, that kept so many Pompeiians in their homes; where they all too soon died.
We, these days, don’t have the excuse of genuine ignorence. Those who don’t know the danger are being willful in their lack of knowledge.
ANON-YYZ – at 03:10
Thank you for this tread. Most in my family (to include my DW) have thought that I have totally lost it. Yet I had a goal in mind and no matter how hard I tried to convince everyone they saw no end in sight. I am now on the down hill side.
I have sufficent food, water and heat to last 6 months. I have tried to think of everything that I would need and thanks to all of the good folks here I believe that I have it. Still a little more to do but not much.
DW has started to use the SIP supplies as I wanted her to. She uses, writes it down which make the shopping list and rotates the supplies. We will not change our eating habits if TSHTF but we will all have to eat a little less.
Water is covered. (600 gallons in storage good to August 2008, two kiddy pools for washing and cleaning a Big Berkley and a Miox if it gets bad)
Heat has been a problem but with the help of the Wikie I now know all of the projects to make the house more energy friendly so I will save money during the month and improve the house. I have enough fire wood to get me through the winter already stocked.
I have 3 solar lanterns and outdoor solar lights for “night ligts” in the house. We have 4 Oil lamps and enough oder free smoke free oil to last at least 6 months.
Bought the clothes line today. Still need the pins and a way to wash the clothes. This will not be a problem found the answers here.
DW is going to get to buy some new curtains (termal type that you can not see through) and some more blankets, sheets and towels. She is happy with that. We will do this tomorrow and I will hang them during the week.
In another 2 weeks, if it starts, I just come home. No running to the stores for last minute items. I will fill up the gas tank and the gas storage cans but that would be all.
I am now in the position that the knife can fall and I do not have to try and catch it.
Thank you Anon_YYZ for putting every thing I have done into the proper light.
Anon_451 – at 19:54
“I am now in the position that the knife can fall and I do not have to try and catch it. “
Congratulations and you are most welcome. I am going through the same experience, although I am not quite as ready as you are. I hope to get there soon and not have to worry about it. That feeling will be priceless.
ANON-YYZ This thread was so good, it was brought back for a second run…a rare acknowledgment…congratulations on a job well done!!
Tom DVM – at 23:13
Thanks. I wish we are all prepared, then we can sleep with both eyes closed :-)
Not bad for a self-confessed non-scientist EH!!
Somewhere on this thread it was said that the public, i.e., general populus, doesn’t want to know the truth… or something along those lines. I agree, somewhat. One doctors office told me, “We are so technilogically advanced now that there is no way anything could happen like it did in 1918.” It is that mentality… the we are untouchable… that concerns me. But, even more concerning “to me” is the plain and simple fact that far too many people just can not prep. Money isn’t there. Heck, I have a car that cost more than my first house… not that it is some great car. It is just things are so much more expensive. It’s not just gas prices… it’s bread, crackers, meat, beans, housing, utilities, medicine… it is everything. I know, I know… we make more… but not necessarily. A one bedroom apartment cost more than my first house… 3 bedrooms, bath, big backyard. Who has time to worry about what may happen… when I know what will happen if rent is not paid, etc. Trigger point… most people’s trigger point is payday-to-payday. This doesn’t excuse the ill-behavior of TPTB in helping prepare societies for some type of event that absolutely demands self-sufficiency, it doesn’t even explain it. I’m not sure what it does… but, I do know it is more than people not wanting the truth for truths sake. Maybe it is just more than can be handled rationally. Boy, reality will certainly bite much more than it already is…
To catch a falling knife, while gingerly edging along a Moebus strip, trying to avoid an avalanche…?
TPTB should have been teaching the public to live within their means and prep for the future, but, history is going to rhyme a lot, because human nature is still the same as it ever was.
Timber @ 11.31:
Yeh- I certainly believe in the power of one. The people, such as us, who prepare- are helping the other’s who don’t… We are responsible to ourselve’s first of all…so as not to be a burden.
Uhmmn..falling knife anybody: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=125&art_id=vn20060914033157808C333279 This story, apart from being more than messed up, illustrates one of the principles at the heart of all our concerns. I know this is a bird flu discussion- but what better way to put ourselves in the moment than w/ a real life CATASTROPHE! What if this was in America or Europe!!
Iowa has something similar… woman dies from TB thought it was allergies,
family and co-workers have tested positive for it…..
Of course the DPH can’t confirm it becaues of privacy acts, but family members have…
Remember this is the same DPH that handled the measles outbrek here last spring..
The same DPH that is saying closing schools will be last resort in the event of Human AF
the same DPH that saysonly old people and very fragile will get AF
http://www.gazetteonline.com/2006/09/08/Home/tuberculosislinncounty.htm
From the overseas link on TB:
“….and the patient would have to be hospitalised for at least 22 months.”
Can you imagine how horrible that would be if someting like this got started & all the beds were filled up, but there were still people wandering around actively contagious that needed to be hospitalized for 2 years?
And THAT doesn’t come in waves!!
“…is airborne and stays in the air for about four hours after an infected person has left the room.” Yes, you probably picked a slightly scarier quote than mine. But then this is the one I had in mind… We need information such as this one…how long do these viruses hang around in the air etc… It would seem that general lack of education about the disease/virus/bug or whatever is causing the problem…causes the REAL problem. So, this illustrates how MUCH MONEY has to be spent. It probably illustrated other thing’s aswell, but I’m tired now and I’m going to bed…night all! (Don’t forget- this had just been announced as an equal if not bigger threat…my word’s…but I would assume it’s threatening enough to cause more than just me concern.)
bump
What happens if you catch the knife but it has blades on both ends?
Hope you’re wearing thick leather work gloves I guess.
Goju, I heard an “Oingo Boingo” song when you asked that:
“You worry too much. You make yourself sad
You can’t change Fate, but don’t feel so bad
Enjoy it while you can; it’s just like the weather
So quit complaining brother . . . . . . .
No one lives forever!!
Lets have a party; there’s a full moon in the sky
It’s the hour of the wolf, and I dont want to die
I’m so happy dancing while The Grim Reaper
Cuts, cuts, cuts
But He can’t get me (I’m as)
Clever as can be, and I’m very quick, but dont forget
No one lives forever!!!”
“Lets have a party, there’s a full moon in the sky
It’s the hour of the wolf and I
Don’t want to die (but) . . .
No one beats Him at His game
For very long, but just the same,
who cares? There’s no place safe to hide
Nowhere to run—no time to cry
So celebrate, while you still can
‘cause any second, it may end.
And when it’s all been said and done,
Better that you had some fun
Instead of hiding in a shell- why make your life a living hell?
So have a toast, and down the cup
And drink to bones that turn to dust (‘cause) . . .
No one, no one, no one, no one . . .
No one lives forever!! (Hey!)”
(If our idea of a “party” is the Flu Wiki, and talking to people about the need to change before something like a pandemic catches them unprepared, that’s our idea of fun. We’re trying to do the right thing, for as long as possible. That’s Life.)
Yo Bra!