From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Whats Your PPF Part IV

30 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 23:43

Personal Pucker Factor continued from here

31 August 2006

Watching in Texas – at 12:09

Having just read the lovely news that is coming out (or that is NOT coming out) of China and Vietnam, I believe my PPF just went up a tidge. Now, if I could just remember where it was before, I could tell you what it is up to;-)

INFOMASS – at 12:27

Watching in Texas: There is a big difference in transparency between China and Vietnam. We really do not know what is going on in China, as it is illegal to print unauthorized bird flu news. In Vietnam, there is an active effort to report the news and the newspapers, while all government controlled, have a fair degree of latitude. The government has decided that full coverage is a way to control the outbreaks by informing people, most of whom read the news. My own PPF remains at 4 but could double if, as Monotreme suggested, we see a big uptick in cases in Indonesia in the next few weeks.

ANON-YYZ – at 12:40

INFOMASS – at 12:27

In the news thread, I suggested that literarcy in a key predictor of how successful a country fights H5N1.

I vaguely recall Vietnam has a relatively high level of literacy for a developing country. Any one knows this subject please enlighten us.

INFOMASS – at 12:48

ANON-YYZ: I agree that literacy is important, but so are government policies or a lack of them. China and Vietnam both have over 90% literacy and Indonesia is in the 85–90% range. The differences in handling this flu problem are probably not mainly due to literacy, even if one took functional literacy which is undoubtedly much lower for all three nations.

02 September 2006

bump – at 15:11
gharris – at 23:40

bump

03 September 2006

Monotreme – at 00:35

bump

06 September 2006

On the fence and chillin’ – at 17:57

BUMP- Just can’t stand to see my thread fall to the side.

I have to say this: I went back to work after the summer break and haven’t been following flu 1/10 as much as I used to. I guess ignorance is bliss because my PPF is down to 1. Maybe when I sit down this weekend and try to catch up with all of these threads it will go up. Until then… smooth sailing.

spok – at 18:03

This keeps my ppf up.

Demographics of influenza A/H5N1 in humans:

http://tinyurl.com/h2l9a

I think it says it all.

INFOMASS – at 19:58

Do the H5N1 pig infections raise anyone’s PPF? The thread on the number of pigs in China and their various mysterious diseases suggest that something is brewing there. And the Indonesian cases seem to be slowing down but it is hard to know if that is because there are fewer prospective cases or because more Tamiflu is being used preventively. Overall, it seems wise to be worried but not about to run home to SIP.

DennisCat 20:30

Well I as at 5 but I am moving down to 4.5 since there have been no new cases in Indo for the last few days. I had been afraid that “this was it” with all the new clusters, but it seems that they have stopped the spread- for now. I was expecting little “mini- waves” at 7 or 10 days apart. If they are not there- I can sleep easier.

The pigs and quails are not too surprising. They were “expected” from the sequence data.

10 September 2006

KimTat 13:45

Ok, I have been at a steady 5 for a long time. I am going up quickly with the non news in china, the steady increase in Indo and the news thread about the CDC AGHH!

BirdGuanoat 15:06

I’ll reassess when the tamiflu blanket comes off in Indonesia.

Right now I’m not changing from a 6 out of 10

cactus – at 15:19
  Those **** pigs !

    My PPF has gone from a leaning 4 to a leaning toward6,5.

       gotta go shopping. ;-)
Petticoat Junction – at 15:42

I had been getting inexplicably edgier the last few weeks anyway, and reading the pig thread and Goju’s notes confirmed that.

The fact that there has been a flurry of articles in just the last 2–3 days across the US with Red Cross and Health officials all holding conferences saying, “It’s not if, it’s when” has me wondering, too. Combining that with what Goju heard from the Red Cross in NYC (institute any plan you can now, the gal pleading with people to prep, etc) makes me think that something is about to hit some ‘critical point’ and that TPTB are beginning to rid themselves of the pretense of not panicking the masses in lieu of needing to ramp up preparations (and now).

BirdGuanoat 16:44

The real test will be how much of this stays on the surface with US mid-term elections coming up in November.

If the article count stays high through the election cycle, and the tone is the same, then I’ll worry a bit more.

Green Mom – at 18:20

The pig thread has kicked my ppf up another notch.

amak – at 21:01

Re: Petticoat Junction at 15:42 - The fact that there has been a flurry of articles in just the last 2–3 days across the US with Red Cross and Health officials all holding conferences saying, “It’s not if, it’s when” has me wondering, too.

But haven’t WE HERE been saying that all along??? Maybe this is a good thing that people are finally getting their heads on right?!? (Oh the optimism is flowing tonight, eh?)

Jane – at 22:01

September is National Preparedness month (general emergencies, I think). When I Googled the subject there were lots of activities, many national organizations, and every state had at least a contact person. Then I noticed the date, 2004. For this year, not so much. But the Red Cross has activities. Their website has a page for “Home Care for Pandemic Flu” http://www.tinyurl.com/kvm4e

anonymous – at 22:31

Jane at 22:01 see http://tinyurl.com/lstqv this is the site for 2006 for National Preparedness Month. Site with state by state events. Some states are showing lots of evernts: i.e. Colorado, Washington, Florida. Some have zip. Some local activities too.

gharris – at 23:26

http://tinyurl.com/rrm4n

Sad story!! Couldnt find a better thread to post it! Beware of paranoia about flu - or this cd be yr fate:-

The woman, named only as “Carmela”, was in her late fifties, weighed about 5st and had hair 7ft long when officials came to take her to hospital, La Repubblica, Il Giorno and La Stampa newspapers reported.

Firefighters and health officials in Macerata, a city about 120 miles north-east of Rome, found the flat’s windows sealed with adhesive tape and the shutters jammed shut.

A bout of flu 26 years ago terrified Carmela so much that she tried to seal herself off from germs by barricading herself in her home, the papers said.

11 September 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:40

she’s been sealed in there for 26 years? I mean, her hair is 7 feet long…

What does ppf mean? And, I don’t mean personal pucker factor. surely that’s not right.

anonymous – at 01:08

Probably still 4…interesting that your(otfac) ppf went down to 1.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:20

With all the latest news I have been reading,,,I may have bumped up to a 6,,,but no matter what the number, I did walk thru Walmart, and mentally make note of the things I would add, when I suspect that the flu has gone pandemic in nature. The wife and I discussed while in there, and we decided that we would each take a cart, and do our shopping,,,,when that time comes. As I read constantly and keep up with the news here and OVERSEAS, I will at least be on the small percentage that runs down to the local store to add to their preps. Could stay now on the property for 2 to 3 years, but will add some things for flavor, etc, above what we have. And I suspect that we will eventually be feeding some family members that are fairly close,,,,and yes we have all that figured out ahead of time. They are within a 1/4 mile but we are the ones that have the 6 foot chain link fence surrounding the property….etc. In fact we are adding more food items each time we go to the store and will feed others if needed. But no physical contact, as my wife and I will be SIP in place,,,,for up to 2 to 3 years if needed. We are one of the small percent that can do that over that time…..

DennisCat 19:33

I had drifted down to a 3. However the news that H5N1 was found in birds in the Sudan now has me back up to a 4

I know most of the attention is directed to INDO and the pigs in China now, but I fear that H5N1 just might pop out suddenly where the WHO is not looking and don’t have people on the ground. Also Africa is “ripe” for a pandemic.

Anon_451 – at 19:40

DennisC – at 19:33 You are right to watch Africa, but I also have part of my good eye on Europe and North America. This little puppy may show up anywhere and say “Suprise”.

Okieman – at 19:51

I have been a 6 for a long time. The news that has been coming out of the island of Sulawesi (Indonesia) is starting to make me lean towards a 7.

Consider this little bit of news:

<snip>

Some citizens Amurang, in fact left their village. The cause is, around 500 chickens in the Village Rumoong Low, Amurang, Minahasa South, North Sulawesi, died suddenly for the last two days. The similar situation fall on belasan the tail of the nonpedigreed chicken belonging to the citizen in the Pencitrejo Village, the eggplant, and Dlingo, all of them in Bantul. The citizen in Bantul admitted to not knowing definitely the cause of the death of the chicken, but the chicken carcass was coloured blackness.

Leave the village

“We were very worried with the plague of bird flu.” We were surprised why chickens died suddenly, in fact beforehand did not have the sign of the illness, said Max Podengen, villagers Rumoong Low. The citizen’s Minahasa concern was especially triggered by the death incident of several cattle livestock after preying on the chicken died this.

<snip>

http://www.kompas.com/ver1/Kesehatan/0608/31/142805.htm

Hogs are the only kind of “cattle” I know of that will eat sick or dead chickens. There are a number of locations in Sulawesi that are reporting suspect cases of bird flu. Many of these locations have fairly large numbers of people that are suspect and are being tested. This, combined with reports of people getting up and leaving town, makes me nervous.

OKbirdwatcherat 22:40

Okieman - If you’re nervous, I’m nervous. I stressed to my DH this weekend that we needed to finalize some of the preps we have so far only talked about. That sense of urgency has gotten hold of me again.

Texas Rose – at 23:25

I’m the kind of person that if I have to sit and wait, I’ll freak. I have to be busy. Prepping serves a dual purpose in that it keeps my PPF quite low AND gets us ready for whatever’s coming.

12 September 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:38

please… somebody refresh my memory! What does ppf stand for? Maybe I’m the only not newbie who can’t remember… surely/maybe there is a newbie who doesn’t know! Thanks!

mj – at 00:42

enough ppf = Personal Pucker Factor

EnoughAlreadyat 00:46

Sheepishly, shameful hanging head… I went back to the first part of this & read what it is. I am so sorry!

PPF- Personal Pucker Factor, a rating of how worried I was about the bird flu going Kung Fu on us.(it is personal pucker factor)

well… I am about at 12 on a 10 point scale. For the first time that I can remember, about 3 days ago, I clicked Google News and there was BF news right on the main page. I didn’t have to search news for info. Today, it was actually on the main lead story section. That & China have me nervous. And… a nagging gutt feeling I can’t shake.

Clawdia – at 01:25

EnoughAlready - I know exactly what you mean - that nagging gut feeling presents in me as a cat-on-a-hot-tin-roof syndrome, which kicked into over drive over the weekend.

I’m holding at an 8, ready to move to 10 on a moment’s notice.

Kathy in FL – at 10:47

I did a major grocery run on Saturday … Lord help me if I ever have to shop on a Saturday again <shudder> … and I was surprised to see a 3-day emergency survival pack right out in the open in wallyworld. There were several people looking at it with interest. <shrug> I know most of the interest in this sort of thing has been generated by the last two years of increased natural disaster coverage by the media … hurricanes, tsunami, earthquakes, forest fires, etc. But it still makes me go hmmmmm to think that maybe other folks are starting “to see the light.”

On the other hand … people get interested in the new and different. The endcap was full, so all those people looking were not necessarily buying.

LauraBat 10:57

The story yesterday in the WSJ about why AF is so lethal scared me - the way it essentially invades the whole body. Then I made the mistake of listening to a story on NPR about the National Story Crops recording family/loved ones recollections of 9/11. I was brought to tears by some of their stories. And I still remember exatly how awful that day was here in CT - way too close to NYC. So, I’ve moved up a notch for sure. Have spent this morning reviewing what I have and what I still need - unfortunately much of it is more costly equipment, but it is necessary. Sigh….

13 September 2006

BUMP – at 10:28
crfullmoon – at 13:37

If you see anyone strike a Mel Brooks pose and start singing “HIGH ANXI..IETY!!…” in a grocery store today,

It isn’t me. See? I’m home, and at the keyboard…

(Besides, I can’t remember the lyrics? Does the song have other lyrics?? Dang auditory loops.)

Ma-Mom – at 14:59

I can tell my PF is rising because I feel acutely aware of everything around me…flu season is coming, regular flu that is, and people all around are showing symptoms…the stylists in the hair salon have been sick ( some still sound sick), the guy who bagged the groceries looked awful and sneezed…ewww. (won’t touch those cans for a while.) People everywhere have these horrible sounding coughs this year. My daughter said “look mommy, I can walk right up to this bird.” NOOOOO get away, I panicked and explained that if a bird will let you get close then it is sick and you should stay away. As if the rapidly multiplying news thread here is not evidence enough, reminders are everywhere, and it feels like time is running short. Last week one day I heard a screeching noise outside, looked out the window to see hundreds of birds in the back yard, kind of like the Hitchcock movie. The clock is ticking.

14 September 2006

bump – at 19:19
Edna Mode – at 19:50

LauraB – at 10:57 The story yesterday in the WSJ about why AF is so lethal scared me …

LauraB, Do you have a link to the story, or, at a minimum, can you tell me who the author was? And did you find the article substantially accurate?

MAinVAat 20:13

I’m not LauraB, however I did find an article that may be what the WSJ story was based upon. http://tinyurl.com/p6tud The article is written by Helen Branswell who is well thought of as a reporter regarding AI.

Here’s first paragraph: “Bird flu triggers high and sustained virus buildup”

(CP) - The severe disease that H5N1 avian flu provokes in people appears to be caused by the virus’s ability to replicate at unusually high levels for a prolonged period - an overwhelming assault that triggers a massive and devastating immune system response, a new scientific paper suggests.

MAinVAat 20:14
Edna Mode – at 20:50

Thanks, MAinVa. I’d still be curious to get a link to the WSJ article. I spent a ton of time with a reporter from WSJ a couple weeks back giving him contact info for sources and whatnot. I’d love to see if the article in WSJ is by him and if he got the story straight. It’s probably by Nick Zimeckus (sp?), though. In any case, I think I’m going to have to break down and get a subscription to WSJ, especially since they’ve suspended the freebie AI tracker.

LauraBat 21:02

Edna - I don’t have the link, I actually read a HARD COPY of it - remember newspapers lol! it’s probably on their on-line site still. It was new info talking about how they found the virus all over the bodies of victims, not just the lungs. I’ll try to do a link later if I get a chance. I haven’t read the pbulished study so I can’t guage the articl’s acuaracy per se, but WSJ has been pretty spot on with its coverage of AF. there was no sugar coating the findings that’s for sure, at least not for me. Having read Barry’s book and other info on 1918 and H5N1 I find the whole prospect mpre overwhelming each day.

On the fence and chillin’ – at 22:42

My PPF is still pretty low. Most of the news has to do with organizations/local governments just starting to train their populations with old (to us anyway) information. I do have a feeling that this fall is going to get hairy. I am at a cautious 3, looking towards a 4

Edna Mode – at 23:13

Thanks, LauraB. I do remember newspapers—in fact, I have so many of them saved up to roll into logs, we’re swimming in ‘em. If you do find a link, that would be outstanding. Thanks so much!

15 September 2006

Centex – at 00:46

I’m still at a solid 4 - A (imminence this winter) Went and finally got the pnuemovax 23 and have had a nasty reaction - site of the injection hurts BAD - has a big hot knot (arm) and have broken out in itchy red hives on my face and chest. GLAD THAT IS A ONE TIME ONLY SHOT!

BUMP – at 01:41

22 September 2006

On the fence and chillin’ – at 22:37

Been busy. Haven’t been reading the wiki. Might come back to haunt me. Any PPFs swinging wildly one way or the other?

Tom DVM – at 22:45

Hi On the fence and chillin’.

I’m still sitting at eight…I am on the fence and waiting…I’m reading the signs and biding my time and keeping my powder dry…the wind is out of the east…I can feel a storm brewing…there are too many seeds on the evergreen trees this year…might be a long cold winter…

…then again…might not…hope not!! /:0)

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:49

Dont know if this is the place or not, but just orderd a new book out called “The Last Town On Earth’. The Last Town on Earth centers on the inhabitants of a small logging town in Washington and what happens when they take drastic measures (quarantine) to try and protect themselves from the virulent and deadly flu epidemic of 1918. When a deserting WWI soldier demands sanctuary, events are set in motion that change the town forever.

Might get some ideas from the book. Then again might raise my preps even higher

no name – at 22:53

Tom DMV 22;45

How is your prepping to prep stage that you mentioned last week(or several days ago)? Have you moved into action of purchasing?

I still feel like an eight…but as my last orders pile up on my porch…I am sliding toward a seven.

Tom DVM – at 23:00

No Name. I envy the fact that you probably are almost fully prepped…

…where am I at the moment…I am very worried to be honest…I have been waiting for the pigs to show me something…I have believed for some time that they will be the prequel to this pandemic…

…in other words…we now know that H5N1 has been asymptomatic in pigs tested in a variety of geographic locations and to this point there hasn’t been large scale clinical infections (or at least haven’t been confirmed as yet)…

…and we know that in 1918 the people gave influenza to pigs…zoonoses go both ways…and influenza has been in pigs ever since.

…therefore, clinical disease in pigs would be an evolutionary leap forward for H5N1 and in my opinion, at that point, it is weeks or months away from us.

So I am preparing to prep and questioning my sanity…for it is not enough to read the signs…or just to see the tree falling…one still must have the good sense to jump out of the way…

…unfortunately, at the moment, with my comfort level dropping by the day…I am still looking.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:15

Hey Tom! It’s been a long time. Hope all is well. Hearing you at an 8 has me worried. You and I once said we would pay attention to each other so my PPF is starting to climb. Time to change my name back.

I’m a school teacher and in the last month since we started I have had a pretty persistant cold. Lot’s of kids sniffling at school. Tonight we were sitting around the neighbor’s fire pit. Bunch of people that have lived here for a long time. I asked them,since I was new, what they thought our winter would be like this year. They ALL yelled out that this was going to be a long, hard winter. “We are due”, it was like this back in 1980something, and something about the almanac. I will have to look into that one. The geese are moving through. I used to look up at geese and think how majestic they were. I still feel that way but I also can’t help but think of the flyways and how they open us up to possibilities of panflu spread. I don’t know why but I am on edge. I have enjoyed my time away from FW, although I have been busy, but for the past 3 days I had this unexplained need to get back on here. My PPF is up and may climb more after I read through the last 30 days of stuff. PPF up to 5.

no name – at 23:16

Tom DMV

I am almost prepped because your helpful advise about the protective gear for breaking of SIP…see you influenced my thinking.

No need to look anymore…you of all people see the signs…I see the logic in your accessments just not in your inaction. Go ahead jump out of the way.

Buy 50 lbs of beans and rice.

No worries we will still respect you in the morning!!!

silversage – at 23:28

As no name said: when your prepping orders come in your PPF goes down. It provides security, or at least a feeling of security.

Perhaps Tom DMV keeps his PPF high to “stay on his toes”. Maybe he would be less inclined to motivate the rest of us to continue our prepping if he himself were prepped. Maybe we all owe him some rice and beans. If only we could send it JIT before the shipping companies stop shipping.

Case in point: I got canned butter, water filter, long johns and new boots in the mail today. Plus gas is going down, so I can go get some more for the generator. PPF goes down, until I spend to much time on fluwikie, then it goes up again.

no name – at 23:39

Hey…I am more than willing to send Tom a care package…I think everyone on the site would be willing. Tom, give us an address.

silversage 23:28

Yes, I think my “addiction” to FW is a problem. But for now, I have to come back, a compulsion. The information and learning curve here is amazing. I can’t imagine a more perfect vehicle. I wouldn’t be where I am today, in only 3 months, without FW…and Mastercard!!! haha

Damn, now I have all those miles and afraid to go anywhere.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:44

I rememberwhen I first started here a few months ago. There would be a few threads and about 15–20 regular posters to follow and I could keep up. Now there are so many new people (which is a good thing) and threads going on that I feel overwhelmed. Take more than 2 days away and it’s like missing a month of college math! Lots of catch-up to do.

Tom DVM – at 23:59

Thanks…you guys are the best…I’m already prepped…I live beside a lake full of fish!!

On the fence and leaning…I didn’t mean to bump you up from chillin…I have been at eight for two years.

no name and silversage. Thanks for the offer and the kind comments…I will be alright…and when my confidence level drops to prep-time I will let you know…

…but if you watch the pigs closely…you will probably know before me anyway…

…I have a feeling that it is going to do the reverse of 1918…nature never does the same thing twice…pigs to people this time and the first wave is going to be the bad one…which will be bad for us…but if you are prepped for one wave, then it might turn out to be an advantage…

…I do honestly believe that we can get through this…

23 September 2006

Oremus – at 00:10

Tom DVM – at 22:45

Interesting that you are at an 8 and not prepped. Yesterday, I told a gal I was at a 3, but that if I wasn’t as prepped as I am, I would be at an 8 or 9.

Get prepped, it reduces stress, less stress = better health.

no name – at 00:13

Tom,

A lake…well sounds like you need a little rice pilaf to go with that trout!

Tom DVM – at 00:14

/:0)

stilearning – at 00:19

You can also order #10 cases of 6 types of dried veges online from Honeyville, get some dried fruit, too, lots of 50 pound bags of various whole grains, and the family mill that edna recommended from aayoob (or some such letters…EDNA!). Yeah, and a water filter such as the big berkey, and then just the solar power details. Done! YEAAAAAA TOM!

We need you later, too.

anonymous – at 00:42

Tom, what do make of the pigs in Indonesia that have tested positive for H5N1?

at 00:42

and I don’t mean BBQ Pork….LOL

bird-dog – at 00:47

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:49

I bought it too! <grin> I haven’t had time to start it yet but am greatly looking forward to reading it. If enough folks join us we could start a dicussion thread to pick it apart. I’m afraid that I’m one of the few that found Jerico disappointing/hollow. I may try to watch it again tomorrow night but I thought it’s lack of attention to detail highly frustrating. I’ll give it a few more chances, I guess.

Tom DVM – at 23:59

Please at least start with a two-week prep goal and do it. Actually maybe you’ve been prepping all along and are concerned about your security for your family, hence your apparent reluctance to disclose. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s the case. <sigh> Do you even have a water purifier?

We all *do* want you around for the wiki’s post-pandemic celebration. We want you to survive! Please. Ok I’ll stop but I’m just another small voice in the massive wiki choir. Plus all of us animal lovers have a very soft spot for our vet! take care.

KimTat 00:57

The Lady is practical as well as magickal, preparing for the future is a good thing!

Green Mom – at 01:19

Im hearing you, Kim and I second that.

AnnieBat 02:15

Creating the news summary each day has actually helped me stay at a lower PPF - why? Well, if you look at the ‘pattern’ to teh news,it is still ‘random’- lots of different stories about lots of different things. If it starts to hone in a particular topic and/or region then I will start to twitch a wee tad.

Tom DVM, while we wait for a postal address for care packages (at this rate you will be the best prepped of us all - LOL), here is a virtual care package - big hugs. Now tell us more about your/our pigs - we have figured for a while they are asymptomatic. Will a sudden change in mortality then a settling down be a real indicator - i.e. the virus has done another mutation within the pig? Or should we just start the hunker down now - Pandora is confirmed to be out of the box?

stilearning – at 09:39

I gave my sis a comprehensive care package with email addresses to order every single item (most in multiples). It worked! After many many questions, she is really prepped now.

Tom, do you already have all the PPE stuff? Enough?

Tom DVM – at 09:42

Hi everyone. You are so kind…I really am blushing. The only reason I have this computer is because my daughter needed it for school. I cam on flu wiki in Jan/Feb to correct one commnet and I am still here. I couldn’t of concieved of such a consistently wonderful group as you are…and as importantly, an intelligent group that I continue to learn fom every day.

I hope that we all continue to be skeptics because that is what science is…question..reasses…question…reasses…progress!!

You have asked a question about pigs so I will give you my impressions of this point in time and copy it to the pig thread.

I think we are in a period of quiescence…the calm before the storm…so to speak.

H5N1 has successfully lulled us to sleep…we have become acclimatized to the news out of Asia so it doesn’t shock us anymore and reporters aren’t concentrating on the story either…I would say that this characteristic occurs with most significant natural disasters that occur infrequently…what would be the mind-set on the west coast of North America regarding earthquakes or tsunami’s at this point.

I believe that it is exactly at this point in time that you must become more vigilant not less…because this invariably happens and the storm comes just after most are convinced in will never happen or we have escaped the threat.

I collect seemingly unrelated information to come to a conclusion about disease. I continue to be concerned about the background scatter…the seemingly increased rate of pathogen change including parasites, bacteria and viruses…for instance, this morning on the Canadian Broadcast Corporation, they announced that the number of Legionnare’s cases in Ontario Canada this year has suddenly and unexpectedly and unexplainedly doubled…for no good reason. Dengue fever that we have had some talking about on flu wiki, a mosquito borne disease has undergone some remarkable changes increasing its virulence and geographic distribution…then we have Strept suis, Foot and Mouth, SARS, H5N1 and this new mysterious viral disease killing millions of animals in China…this is pattern repeating itself all over the world at the moment…I’m sure that this occurrence of increased mutations has occurred in the past but can’t help but think that global warming and sunspots (medical maven) are invoved as multipliers.

to be continued.

stilearning – at 09:43

………enough for 18+ months……..548+ days…..+?

Tom DVM – at 10:00

stilllearning…you overestimate the intelligence of professionals…it might surprise you how many haven’t started prepping yet (I don’t know any off-hand that have) and it might be a good idea to follow someone else down the dark alley…in my experience, you can never go wrong following a farmer.

Back to the pigs for a moment and what are my feelings on them.

I haven’t seen one good piece of news about pigs for more than six months.

We have found out that the Chinese have concentrated “HUGE” numbers of pigs at ground zero for H5N1…and not only that there production has expanded uncontrollably for more than five years…I have seen this before…expansions like this are a recipe for disaster…no doubt about it.

Secondly, the infection is asymptomatic in pigs but probablly has not to this point been in large numbers. Again, the worse possible result because we can’t identify sub-clinical infections and remove the animal and H5N1 can now adapt without killing the animal…this is the absolute worse thing we could here (and I think we have an answer for Monotreme on a potential unknown mammalian vector although I still believe there is at least one more in China).

With the threat to a tens of billions of dollar business and a source of food to keep unhappy Chinese citizens happy…there is another factor…THEY HAVE BEEN GIVING H5N1 VACCINES TO PIGS…

…the Chinese have shown a distinct lack of knowledge of animal husbandry techniques and weaknesses and also seem to have a disrespect for adequate testing of vaccines before using them…a bad combination…

…so this combination of things means grossly expanded populations of pigs in affected area +vaccination with untested vaccines + highly infectious and virulent outbreak with unknown etiology = all at the same time.

Is this ongoing outbreak in China caused by H5N1…I can’t say…the symptoms would fit a H5N1 outbreak but the truth is that it doesn’t matter…once we know that H5N1 is circulating in pig populations asymptomatically below the radar screens.

The bottom line is that like Q.lake…this is another tipping point…there will be no last minute repreive…we just don’t know how long the minute will last.

to be continued.

Edna Mode – at 10:02

Tom, and all, I just posted an article from China Daily over on the news link that, if taken at face value, is disconcerting. I’m wondering why the government would allow such a story to run given their recent clamp down on media. Take a look, and then tell me what your PPF is. I’m mulling the implication myself. Not sure if we are being manipulated.

Edna Mode – at 10:03

news link = news thread for today

Tom DVM – at 10:14

While I am at it, I might as well give you my impressions of the response of regulators…I worked with them directly for twenty years and have observed the Chinese government and regulators around the world closely for the last nine years approx.

From Jan 2005-Nov 2005 all regulators and many experts thought that H5N1 was a dead-end, would go away on its own and cause no problems. There was a consistent campaign of downplaying the risk and actively taking on anyone of the other persuasion (Dr. Nabarro etc - I will give you an example after this is written as a reference).

Then came Q. lake which was the Chinese Governments own inventions (sometimes you would almost have to think they want it to happen because it seems that they are doing everything possible to help the virus)…they had captured wild waterfowl from Q. lake, raised them in captivity where they contacted H5N1 and then released or let them escaped back to Q. lake at exactly the time period that they were beginning to migrate…and we all know what happened.

That created a wave of panic to go through regulators…it lasted about three weeks and then they all started back-tracking to cover their collective ass in case it didn’t happen…’they flit on the wind, like a leaf on the wind…blowing one way and then another…never able to make up their minds’.

Just about the time everyone was back on the ‘ain’t going to happen bandwaggon’…along came Karo in Indonesia with obvious….H-H-H at least…it was no surprise to us because of Monotreme but it sure was to others…once again their band-wagon hit the ditch and they all fell or jumped off again…try as they might, they haven’t been able to get that bandwagon quite out of the ditch since.

Now we have an unknown, undisclosed widespread outbreak in pigs and finally the serology to indicate it is in pig herds in affected areas asymptomatically…

…I believe that every regulator knows exactly what you know…this battle is now unwinnable…the opportunities to stop it are gone…the opportunity to control it is gone…you don’t see any flipant comments anymore…even from the skeptics…

…the scientific jury is in and the unanimous conclusion is that we will get it but don’t know when…the pigs certainly indicate sooner rather than later but sooner could be in five years…we just don’t know yet…

to be continued.

Tom DVM – at 10:26

Okay the only question left is timing…okay there is also a question of virulence but it seems to have already been answered…in spite of the experts conclusions and insistence…H5N1 virulence has consistently increased over the last nine years…I don’t think we can expect this trend to stop now…the coming H5N1 pandemic will be as bad as 1918 at a minimum.

Okay, so what am I looking for in the next month from pigs. We don’t necessarily have to look for it in pig populations anymore because we now know it is there asymptomatically…

…I think the key is when it goes from asymptomatic to symptomatic…this may have just occurred in China and is the cause for my uneasiness at the moment…

…My friend Dick Thompson, at the World Health Organization, knows exactly what is going on in China…and he could make me feel a lot better if he would just do his job, stand before the cameras, and tell me and you…what the causative agent is…

not only should this represent regulatory ethics but scientific ethics and veterinary science ethics as well…the WHO’s collective and total silence on several issues puts their ethics in question although I don’t think there is much question left about whether the World Health Organization is a political or scientific organization…IT IS MOST DEFINITELY 100% POLITICAL AND 0 % SCIENTIFIC.

If the disease goes from asymptomatic to symptomatic in pigs we are weeks or maybe a few months from a full blown pandemic and every regulatory with a brain in the world knows it…right now.

Like I said, you have to study history while at the same time acknowledging, from a disease perspective, nature never repeats itself…

…I am thinking pigs as a wick to people this time rather than people to pigs…and the first wave will be the bad one…

…In one day we go from relative security to full blown pandemic…all mutations in at the same time producing a pandemic ready virus that gets on an airplane exactly the way SARS did.

The only chance at control at this point…and I am not sure it would work…would be for the Chinese to immediately slaughter and de-populate all pig farms in the area of ‘H5N1 ground zero’.

Thanks again for your kind words and I promise, I will prep in time.

TOM DVM – at 10:32

This is the reference I talked about above as to the approach of regulators before Q. lake…this apparent lack of concern removed any chance of controlling and stopping the progression of H5N1 before it got us…unfortunately.

DICK THOMPSON…ANYTIME YOU WOULD LIKE TO COME ON FLU WIKI AND DISCUSS THINGS WITH US…YOU WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME…

…I BELIEVE THAT FLU WIKI IS A SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC INFORMATION NETWORK AND THE PEOPLE ON THIS NETWORK PAY YOUR WAGES…THEREFORE, IN MY OPINION, YOU HAVE AN OBLIGATION.

     ……………………………………………..

A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5–150 million people, a UN health official has warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.

“It’s like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it’s running at the moment,” Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.

The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO’s official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.

“There is obvious confusion, and I think that has to be straightened out. I don’t think you will hear Dr Nabarro say the same sort of thing again,” Mr Thompson said.

Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths.

Prepared for worst

“The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m,” the UN’s new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said in his BBC interview.

Dr Nabarro said he stood by the figure drawn from the work of epidemiologists around the world.

“My reason for giving the higher figure is simply that I want to be sure that when this next flu pandemic does come along, that we are prepared for the worst as well as for the mildest,” he said.

In an earlier interview with the BBC, he said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.

“The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging,” he said.

Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility “that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East”, he warned.

The comments came as agriculture ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and training.

Dr Nabarro said the number of deaths from any future influenza pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments. “I believe that the work we’re doing over the next few months will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 or in the direction of five.”

The appointment of Dr Nabarro is an indication of how seriously the UN is taking the threat, the BBC’s UN correspondent Suzannah Price says.

In his new role, he is meant to ensure the UN has a co-ordinated response to bird flu and that it helps global efforts to prepare for any human flu pandemic, our correspondent says.

Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

Published: 2005/09/30 15:21:25 GMT

© BBC MMVI

TOM DVM – at 10:36

Sorry…I forgot to say that I am endebted to anonymous for putting this reference back on flu wiki a few weeks ago…and it is essential to the discussion…

…I would really like to thank him/her by name but since I can’t…

…ANONYMOUSE…THANKS AGAIN!!

Diana – at 13:29

At a 1. Aware and watching but not worried. I read a few random threads and that is it. The possibilies of it becoming pandemic don’t worry me much, have real life issues which concern me more. For me its on par with national and global issues. One of many, but not paramount in my life.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 17:49

Tom DVM – at 10:00 “stilllearning…you overestimate the intelligence of professionals…it might surprise you how many haven’t started prepping yet (I don’t know any off-hand that have)”. Tom would you consider Dr. Mike Osterholm a professional in this field? This is a quote from “Mike Osterholm’s H5N1 Facts & Assessment of Risk” that I downloaded.

“4. He, his wife, and his family now plan for his not returning home during the pandemic. He is committed to work…and he will not endanger any of his family by visiting them during the pandemic…..The reason he and his wife have concluded that protective sequestration is the right option for them is “social distancing won’t work” in an urban enviroment.” So looks like they are planning on this for months on end…and he actually is the top person I would say out in the world getting governments ready etc.

crfullmoon – at 18:17

I can still recall reading Dr.Nabarro’s comment that each morning when he opens his email he is afraid he is going to see H5N1 has gone pandemic and that was quite a while ago. Motivated me. That officials were putting off the difficult work and that it may start at any time, and it takes so much time to get ready that we haven’t any to waste. Goju’s recent chat only kept that impression fresh for me.

Dr.Osterholm’s plans for his family are clear. We can listen to what he says and watch what he does, because he is ethical, and has been warning govt and public for ages.

Too many copies of bad virus circulating, and too many unethical people’s actions already set the virus beyond our abilities to monitor or stop it.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 18:22

crfullmoon – at 18:17 I agre with you on your statements,,,and the whole point of getting as prepped as possible NOW so that when the virus begins to go pandemic, at least we wont be fighting so many at the store.

Dr Dave – at 18:23

Gary Near Death Valley:

I spoke with my personal physician yesterday about what his clinic is doing to prepare. He was not aware that there was any impending crisis and he acknowledged that neither his clinic nor any county or state agency had engaged him in any pandemic preparation dialogues. So, I gave him a copy of my 15 page essay, “Becoming Prepared for Six Months”. I hope he reads it and I hope he shares it with the administrator of his clinic.

My physician is not an ignorant person, but considering that he was unaware of any “crisis” and considering that no agency had yet engaged him in a pandemic dialogue, my PPF went up a full point to about a 7.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 18:34

Dr Dave – at 18:23 I may have missed it if you had placed a link to your 15 page essay. Is it avaiable? May I get the link if it is there or you can send to my email address of thefiredude2000@yahoo.com Thank you, Gary

Dr Dave – at 19:05

Gary,

It’s on the way. Check your mail.

24 September 2006

AnnieBat 07:18

I think my PPF just went up a point - Indonesia appears to have a new testing regime in place, which is getting test results faster, and to confirm 2 cases within as many days plus the reports of considerable testing taking place …

The fact that the latest fatality is in Jakarta, if anyone around him proves positive or starts to become sick,,,,

mj – at 07:26

AnnieB, I’m with you. Raising my PPF way up is not a nice way to start the day. Has the tamiflu blanket worn thin so that the things that were smoldering under it are now bursting into flame? I will be watching very closely this week. And getting some of the last things on my list done for basic stuff. Water, water, water,… It is so hard to get my mind around that part too.

stilearning – at 08:55

Focus on your mantra…WATER

26 September 2006

tjclaw1 – at 20:14

Boy do threads get burried fast around here! My PPF is currently at an 8. I’ve been scurrying around like a squirrel trying to finish preps before winter. Because we know that BF, like seasonal influenza, seems to pick up speed in the colder months, I think the risk of it going pandemic is greatest in the winter, so my PPF naturally goes up. The latest news reports have me a little spooked, as well reports of early A influenza outbreaks in the US. Then I had Chinese food on Friday and my fortune cookie said “You know things without being told.” Ok, time to really get in gear for a long, cold, nd worrying winter.

DennisCat 20:30

I was down to a 3 but it just popped up to a 4 after seeing the new Thailand death. They missed H5N1 in the first 9 tests then they finally got it right. The last listing the Thai government had was

“Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 4,976 cases AI case site has gone off the air and the last listing (24th) “ and “of which 7 cases are under investigation“ is not giving me a good feeling.

I know I am worrying too much. But if they are just now announcing H5N1 in a death from Aug 10, misdiagnosed it 9 times, and have thousands of patients “under surveillance”, that is exactly how I though “the start” would be.

Clawdia – at 20:35

I’m not convinced at this point that there is any such thing as “worrying too much”.

DennisCat 20:44

Clawdia – at 20:35 “worrying too much”.

Worry is “too much” when it prevents or diverts you from doing what needs to be done. I sometime worry and spend too much time here on line when I should be digging a new water line for getting extra water to a shielded location, building organized storage,…

Worry is only good if it motivates you to action. But I know what you mean :)

On the fence and leaning – at 23:43

Interesting posts above. I love the spirited conversations. I have a new theory. Flu wiki raises PPF. My PPF goes down when I avoid FW for a few days and then increases when I try to catch up. Maybe I should be like the rest of the country and put my head in the sand and ignore it until I hear that blaring Emergency Broadcasting System tone interrupt Oprah. Does knowledge equal concern? Does our collective (and impressive) analysis of ALL of the available information out there breed frustration because we know enough to know there are huge amounts of information still to be uncovered? I wonder how much of our PPF is based on the fact that we know there should be more disclosure and follow up. Another question: Does your PPF increase more when you hear actual BF news or when we (the wiki, not dumb ol’ me) connect the dots and find out not all of the dots are there to connect?

And in keeping with the theme of the post: My PPF is up to 4 in light of the coming cold weather and all of these geese flying over my house.

27 September 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:24

The Thailand mess has me a bit on edge.

A coup is never a good thing for continuity of govenment operations.

Especially public health.

Goju – at 00:56

3 indonesian clusters… man taken off plane - oh sorry he doesnt have BF - they could tell by looking at him…

Up 1 full notch here.

Bird Guano – at 01:00

kind of like the USDA inspection of meat eh Goju ?

LOL

Hmm, smells OK

Call of the Wild – at 01:00

The Wiki gets me thinking but it’s the expert opinions and the growing tally of clusters that has me worried. About a 6 now.

NoFluingAroundat 01:55

<snip> so testing of these patients at this time would define the size of the cluster, which involved over 20 hospitalized contacts.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09260602/H5N1_Medan_Cluster.html

PPF at an 8. Started on my last minute preps. Someone please tell me I am not overreacting.

anonymous – at 02:04
 Momentarily went from 4 to 10. Then it went back down to 4 when I realised the guy in Sydney obviously can’t have the Bird Flu…because there was only one story and as I was just at the shops,and the report was hour’s ago, and no one talked about it.

 Phew!
Clawdia – at 02:05

I’ve been at 8 for weeks now, if not months. Last minute preps done, except for the hoped for but not expected last trip for fresh fruits and veggies and shelf-stable milk, things like that. Other than that, my cases of butter and cheese came today . . . we could pull up the drawbridge tomorrow. Oh, if only we had a drawbridge!

I’m not much good at telling you not to over-react. Better to over-react than to react as the deer in the headlights.

Then again, consider your source. Always.

anonymous – at 02:15
 Clawdia- at 02:05

 Why would you consider a level 8 stress level?
AnnieBat 02:52

My PPF didn’t go up on the announcments in Sydney because my immediate reaction was that it would have been hushed up very quickly if there was a high chance it was a BF case - although it is a bit difficult to conceal an ambulance going to an aeroplane on the tarmac …

If anything, of great relief was the fact that this publicity will actually spur others into action who have been in the “I will start my preps etc tomorrow”.

What still stirs my PPF is the Indonesia situation and the fact that the cases we are finally hearing about are the 2nd or 3rd in a family, the prior cases having died without testing. Now we just need some of those other family members to get on a plane …

That’s just ducky! – at 03:12

I’m on high alert. I don’t experience too much of the gnashing of teeth, wringing of hands etc. in times of crisis, (it’s a psychological defense mechanism, really), so I’m not sure what my PPF is. Have you seen those cute little critters on National Geographic called Merkats? They look kind of like a cross between a cat and a monkey. They live out in the desert or something in holes in the ground in big … big what - herds? Anyway, they take turns being the “lookout” for hawks coming to eat them. The lookout merkat sits there, eyes scanning the horizen. (That’s me now.) When he sees a hawk, he stands straight up on his back feet, balancing up against his long tail on the ground, his little front paws hanging down, and starts barking at the top of his lungs for everyone to get their a** down a hole. That will be me when I see the stock price of the makers of Tamiflu start increasing exponentially. ;)

NoFluingAroundat 09:37

Even though the Australian insident amounted to nothing, it made me realize how fast BF could travel around the globe. We could very easily wake up tomorrow and it be the real thing. The situation in Indo, and the 20 suspected cases that are currently hospitalized does’nt help the PPF either.

LMWatBullRunat 13:49

I’ve gone up a bit to around a 6.5 to 7. I think it is more likely than not that we will see global pandemic this winter.

Blue – at 14:06
 AnnieB_at 2:52

 Why would you think they would hush up a BF case?
anonymous – at 14:20

Blue – at 14:06

AnnieB_at 2:52

Why would you think they would hush up a BF case?”

Anonymous sits at the keyboard and chuckles….. : )

JV – at 14:24

Why was SARS not reported for (?) 10 days?

DennisCat 14:45

JV – at 14:24 Why was SARS not reported for (?) 10 days?

10 days? Notice that China reported one H5N1 case as SARS for almost 3 years (24M Beijing, Nov 2003)

As I always say, I have found few conspiracies but lots of incompetence.

JV – at 14:48

DennisC - I understand. I was referring to Canada. I was just trying to make a point.

JWB – at 14:50

Today my PPF is exactly 7.7604

That’s just ducky – at 14:56

AnnieB It’s usually about the money. For example, they wouldn’t want to lose tourism dollars. They wouldn’t want to panic the citizenry and have situations that they would have a hard tome controlling. They would avoid these negative consequences for as long as possible even by covering up the truth. Then, if an epidemic did break out, they would claim that it wasn’t related to this incident.

anonymous – at 15:01

They also wouldn’t want to needlessly panic people.

The authorities did the right thing here. Anyone with a cough or runny nose coming from Asia could “Possibly have bird flu.” You can’t and you don’t quarantine an entire aircraft unless several criteria are met. Those criteria were not met in this case and that’s why the plane wasn’t quarantined.

Oh my gosh, do you mean the powers that be actually did something right?

Surprise, surprise, folks. Believe it or not, the powers that be are not always inept and ineffectual

nsthesia – at 15:03

PPF still low but very aware…

I was surprised to see a mention of the sick man on the airplane (they even mentioned testing for avian flu) in the MSM. At least the airlines are aware and looking for ill passengers. Sounds like it was a good practice run. I think it will get other people thinking. Thankfully we do not have readily transmissible H2H (yet).

The multiple (false) negative testing only to be found positive at autopsy was disconcerting - to say the least. But it is something I had assumed all along. I am sure there have been many more positive patients than we will ever know.

Something that has bothered me immensely are all the reports of people dying of avian flu symptoms WITH NO LAB RESULTS!!! How is that still happening? It seems each time we see a new victim, at least one other person has already died and been buried without being tested! I don’t understand how that still happens. I wouldn’t be surprised if the people are afraid to come forward when having symptoms, only to do so when the first one dies and multiple others are already ill.

Now, on a lighter note: I’m beginning to worry about all those stocking up on canned butter and cheese! Combine all that fat and cholesterol with limited physical activity and we should have an epidemic of cardiac disease within the first wave! ;) Correction: pregnancies AND cardiac disease! Now THAT will be a combination!

anonymous 3 – at 15:03

My PPF went today based on clusters in Indonesia and also the folloing information from Gilmore at CE. He is referring to an interview with Webster in the current AARP magazine. Does anyone get this to confirm this? If this is true then Webster is really letting the struth out we these stark comments: (Claudia Dreifus is a New York Times science correspondent)

Robin Williams sitting on a tricycle is on the cover.

Bird Flu By Claudia Dreifus A leading virologist warns of a coming pandemic. How concerned should you be?

They show the article in online table of contents, but do NOT link to it, meaning they didn’t bother uploading it. . . Arrrg (plop)

From Article

Q. If H5N1 mutates, what could readers do to protect themselves?

Webster: You mean if they can’t get a vaccine? I’d say: If they have a house in the hills, then go to it-and stay there for 3 months. And have enough food there already so that you can stay as far away from neighbors as possible.

Q. So you advocating people stockpiling food and medicane

Webster: Absolutley. Most of us can afford dry food for 3 months. One bottle of clorox is enough to purify all the water you need out of local rivers. (NOTE: I have trouble with this)

Q. Why get the standard flu shot?

Webster: It may do a little bit against bird flu. A little bit. Another thing: Tamiflu or Relenza, have them on hand. . . I keep a supply myself. I always take it with me when I travel-just in case I get exposed. .

Diana – at 15:09

Today my fear factor has gone done from 1 to 0.5. Getting interested in other things. Keep my eyes wide open just in case, but not at all worried. Maybe next week it will rise, but now out to enjoy life… Nothing like a little water and food stocked away to feel virtuous. The squirrels in our area are going nuts as usual, as the Farmers Almanac predicts cold weather for the rest of the year. Needed two blankets last nite. Will just start taking immune enhancers to ward off cold bugs. Will get the annual flu shot in the next few weeks at least that will be a start. Until there is solid reason to fret I won’t.

tjclaw1 – at 15:19

I’m still at an 8, waiting for more info on the possible cluster.

On the funny side, ok, maybe not so funny, I previously indicated that last Friday my fortune cookie said “You know things without being told.” Today, there was NO fortune in my cookie. Uh, oh :(

Medical Maven – at 15:20

Galley crammed, Coasting at a 2 to conserve psychic energy, will hit ten on the Richter scale when confirmed anywhere in the world. I envision easing off of that ten after collapsing from exhaustion doing the final, final preps. And if I wake up the next morning, and I am still at a ten, I will break out that first bottle of primo wine and force an attitude adjustment.

Tom DVM – at 15:32

Medical Maven. I have been thinking for some time that those of us who have been following this closely may have to deal with a period of shock akin to ‘post-traumatic stress sydrome’ for a period of time after the announced beginning of hostilities…and especially if we have to go through a number of weeks of guess work and hypothesis before we find that our intuition was correct…

…and I must say again that I am amazed at the level of discourse, scientific and otherwise, that has occured on flu wiki although I understand that there is starting to be some problems now (couldn’t get on other than intermittantly for the past 24 hours) with some insulting comments on some of the threads…which is really too bad.

Pookey – at 15:40

Just reading this thread has made my PPF go up a couple of notches to about 7. Halfway through, I stopped and put in orders for a small generator (EU2000i), 2 cases TVP, 1 case canned eggs, 1 case canned butter, and chlorine shock treatment. These were the things, that I have been putting off ordering until things heated up some more. Now, along with my other preps, I am reasonably prepared for whatever happens. But man I’m scared.

JWB – at 15:46

Tom DVM – at 15:32

…with some insulting comments…

It is well known that some people who are rescued eventually turn on their rescuers. I was wondering for some time if we would see a variation of that here.

tjclaw1 – at 15:49

Tom DVM, stress brings out the best in people - think about the checkout lines at Christmas.

anonymous – at 16:00

Tom DVM - there was also a recent misunderstanding on one of the threads where Snowhound1 (a housewife herself who has admittedly been both “fat and skinny” at times) used an example of “just a fat housewife.” Olymom (an admitted Rubenesque domestic goddess) took offense, though Snowhound1 has insisted her post was not intended to insult fat housewives and that has spun a bit out of control.

A lot of frayed nerves here I think. We all need to count to 10 before we post. 20 if we’ve been hittin’ the BB RWFK! : )

heddiecalifornia – at 16:26

It was me, it was me. I think I was the one who took offense at the phrase “just a fat housewife” and sent a response before I gave it much thought. My apologies, and comments are over there at the new thread “JUST A FAT HOUSEWIFE.”

  I am so sorry that this disrupted the site; I hope the disruption makes for a better understanding of the value of people, no matter what size, shape, origin, gender, faith, or culture, etc.  
DennisCat 20:54

well I am still holding at PPF of a 4. At least the Thai site is back up.

http://tinyurl.com/hon69 The problem, of course, is that now it says: “Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 5,005 cases… There are 17 cases under investigate reported..”

notice for “under surveilance” the patient has a temp of >38C, and exposure to sick/dead chickens/pneumonia person but no sample has been taken. and for under invetigation: awaiting results of tests.

It is just hard for me to have “warm fuzzy feelings” from Thailand with such large numbers and from whom they missed the H5N1 test on the last death 9 times. If there is another confirmed death there, my PPF will go up quickly.

Anon_451 – at 21:06

Tom DVM – at 15:32 I have only really had time to look at the more important threads so today I was doing a full thread run. Most of the “problems” is due to the news. A lot of concern and it is like waiting for the shoe to drop. Maybe every one needs to take a day or two off, and reconnect with family to remember why we are prepping in the first place. I have had my melt down moments, I almost expect to turn on the Wikie and see the birds feet up any day, however my PPF is still a 2. If it happens I am as ready as I can be. Everyone knows what to do, and I just remember that most of us will get through it.

Besides my DW and I want to visit with you and your DW after it is over or next spring which ever comes first. (you will make it or I will dig you up and smack you around). (Big Grin)

Tom DVM – at 21:27

Anon 451. You are looking at the world record holder for: holding on by one’s finger nails…I am an old pro. /:0)

heddiecalifornia. You were not the only person who was insulted. I know Snowhound1 through her posts and she is a wonderful person who we all know would not say or do anything to insult anyone…

…I think the bigger problem was the other responses.

I remember the battle for equality in the sixties both for the struggle and the wee, wee, wee, inadvertant side benefits to males of the time…I’m sure the memory remains close to the surface and was obviously rekindled this afternoon.

Snowhound1. We need you and we need everyone else who is upset to stay with us…we have ‘bigger fish to fry’ at the moment.

JWB. I thought the problem was the rescued fell in love with their rescuers.

tjclaw1. Good point!!

DennisC. Think China and North Korea.

no name – at 21:33

The only LBS. I’m interested in are the 8–10 pounds between the ears. Valuable grey matter is transported by all sorts of physical bodies doing all sorts of physical work.

MLBIT – at 22:27

I saw comments about BF Cluster in Indo. today and it wasn’t in any of the “expected” places. Reminds me to do a big shoppiing order next payday. 4 ish on the 1–10 scale.

28 September 2006

Clawdia – at 01:41

anonymouse 2:15

“Clawdia- at 02:05

Why would you consider a level 8 stress level?”

Why not?

Clawdia – at 01:42

But, more seriously, the why has a lot to do with a lot of different places - Thailand (germs love conflict), Iraq (same reason), Indonesia (isn’t that one obvious?), China (obvious yet again), and that lovely man who deplaned in Australia yesterday.

‘Nuff?

AnnieBat 05:17

Ironically, I have found doing the news summary each day quite ‘calming’ - I can see the ‘patterns’ - don’t ask me to describe them, it is more an intuitive thing - the ‘let’s make some noise’ versus the ‘this is the real McCoy’. I suggest you try it next time a news item gets you twitchy - go back through some of the news summaries and see which category you put that item in then make a decision about what it really means about the progress of things - hope that makes some sense (well at least to someone anyway).

As to the queries for me at 14:06 etc, I really think if they thought it was BF, we would have heard “we think this is a drug courier with a burst bag in his gut” and other passengers would have found their progress through customs and immigration inexplicably slow. I am sorry if that sounds really negative - again, think back to your experiences over the years and how communication was managed. I also understand that most countries still have a news blackout law or agreement which can swing in with amazing speed. I would love to be so wrong.

Compare Indonesian officials now with even 3 months ago - there is virtually no hesitation now to be upfront and honest about what is happening, sadly because the situation has become overwhelming for them, and also because they need external assistance and this requires a level of open-ness as well.

Enough rambling. My PPF is still the same - what number represents ‘I have reluctantly accepted that this will happen in the next 6–12 months but still hold a glimmer of hope that we might have 12–18 months’?

29 September 2006

JWB – at 12:49

8.0658 and steadily climbing

banshee – at 13:00

I have been at a steady 1 to 2 for quite a while. However, I think I jumped to a 5 or 6 yesterday. A lot of officials are throwing the “M” word around plus the sudden cooperativeness of the Chinese rattled me a bit. Also, WHO seems to be quite chatty and open this week. Why?

NoFluingAroundat 13:06

banshee – at 13:00

My thoughts exactly! PPF at 5

Diana – at 13:29

On a long drive listened to Dr. Joy Browne on the radio. Right off the bat she started talking about immune enhancers against the flu. O.K. black and green tea. Protein. Cleanliness. Keeping your nose warm, and lo and behold enhancing your immune system with Sex three times a week. She wasn’t sure if it was swapping spit that did it or not. I don’t know what study she is going by, but perhaps someone here does. It does seem that the flu season will be upon us in no time, so for what it was worth I have passed it on.I notice there is T.V. listings of any new deaths in Indonesia.

OKbirdwatcherat 13:30

I hope FrenchieGirl checks in soon.

Commonground – at 13:36

I don’t have a PPF. I have been dissappointed that there hasn’t been any discussion on the clusters increasing in Indonesia. Maybe I just haven’t gone to the right thread - don’t have time to go through them all. So I came here to get a feel for what you guys think. You are the experts. The ones I rely upon for opinion. Thanks everyone. I think I am still hoping everything burns out over there, only because it always has before? Maybe we can open a thread called Indonesian Discussion? I’m sure I’m not the only one who looks for your opinions on this.

Oremus – at 13:44

Commonground – at 13:36

Indonesian Discussion

JWB – at 13:48

Tom DVM – at 21:27

People that are rescued go through a recovery phase and thats when they turn on their rescuers. I can’t do the tinyurl thing here at work, it gets blocked. Cut and past this:

citizencorps.gov/cert/training_mat.shtm

Go to Chapter 15 - Disaster Psychology, page 7–13

There is a lot of things in that chapter that most of us are going through right now. I’m glad its normal. 8-D

JWB – at 13:53

Whoops! That was the trainers manual scroll down to Participant manuals, no.13 page 7–5

 “You should expect that survivors will show psychological effects from the disaster—and some of the psychological warfare will be directed toward you.”
Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 14:44

Commonground - 13:36

We all cannot thank you and the others on the Indonesian Outbreak thread enough for all of your time consuming sleuthing. I lurk on the thread all the time as well as trying to find out more information. You guys do such a great job with the news postings and a great job with the daily summary chart.

It’s hard to know what all to say about Indonesia. I believe that we are not getting the full story out of Indo. We are getting a partial piece, and that is very, very disturbing. I think that most folks are holding their breaths waiting to see if the Tamiflu blanket shreds, waiting to see if those daily summary numbers will skyrocket. I don’t like all of the stories about the mutations, especially considering the Thailand man with 9 negative results before the autopsy confirmed H5N1, very reminiscent of 1918. The news article that it might take THOUSANDS of cases before H2H is confirmed just fills me with the utmost dread. I guess I’m waiting for more than 25 in a cluster or for 100s to be reported as being sick in one day.

I’m very disturbed about Dr. Nidom with the hint of dogs as the mammalian reserve. That brings to mind the culled dogs in China around the first of August and the dogs in Florida who have been reported as having H3N2, (I think it was that flavor of the flu.)

I’m very disturbed with the reports of how the flu was very rampant this spring. We’ve now seen articles out of the UK and the US stating that flu absences were above normal for this spring. In 1918, it seemed to simmer from March until that fall when it exploded. Is that what we are looking at in Indo?

How does the recent news reports from the WHO about mutations fit in? Is this the beginning stages of concern on the part of TPTB? Is it just a little ahead or just a little behind of the flu wave? Are they mentioning mutations now because we’re going to have the TOMDVM cocktail of multiple mutations going pandemic at the SAME time?!?

Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating!!!! I wish that there were more data out there on 1918, and I wish that they would release sequences from NOW!

How much time do we have?

Feather Pillow – at 15:09

I posted this also on the Indo Discussion thread…………..

I search this thread several times a day. I agree with BRMM that it is sobering and somber. I too appreciate so much the time and effort of those who work so hard to translate and bring to the wiki this news. And I am torn. What can be said? I see what is happening, but mostly remain quiet. For about 4 years I worked with Hospice and sometimes this feels like the waiting that occurs before a long expected death. Time seems suspended and when one does venture out into the “real” world they don’t know what you have seen and heard and they don’t really want to. Perhaps the silence from other participants that sometimes accompanies this thread can be likened to the quiet whispering that respctfully occurs near the death bed. Just some thoughts. Thank you, Commonground and Pugmom.

INFOMASS – at 15:17

This sounds like one of those “I have high-level friends” posts, but a Minister (as in head of a Ministry in the federal/central Indonesian government) met a close friend of mine recently and acknowledged that “birdflu” was a huge problem but that no effective response would come until many more died. THEN it would be a national emergency and too late. The various parts of the government cannot work with each other and resources are low. No specifics but Nabarro’s suggestion that the true scope of the problem is understated is correct. We have every reason to be seriously worried. That AND China (why the sudden cooperation?) and WHO (why the sudden alarming statements?)have raised my PPF. No number, but it seems to me more likely to be “sooner rather than later.” I just do not see what we can do now to stop the flu from buying a winning lottery ticket. What would it take to raise the Pandemic Level at WHO to 4? Thousands of deaths? Why is this not in the main stream media?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:25

Feather Pillow – at 15:09 very well described.

lohrewok – at 15:27

INFOMASS

That is the million dollar question. Why is in not in the MSM. That is what people say to me when I talk about H5N1. My thoughts on that are 1) TPTB have given up. or 2) We are all insane.

Medical Maven – at 15:28

There’s not much left to say. When you see hundreds it is time to shut the door.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:32

Sometimes, this whole situation reminds me of one of those over dramatized Hollywood movies depicting a mega disaster. I think the common thread in those movies, and we’ve seen this common thread played out in real life with disasters like 9/11 and Katrina, is one that is depressingly being played out today.

The officials know that there is a potential problem, but they’re going to need more concrete data before alarming the public and disrupting the economy. We’re not getting all of the information from scientists and government officials because they are more worried about their everyday pissing contests than being worried about the big picture.

We’re not getting the MSM involved yet because of that pesky little word HOPE. When it boils right down to it, we are all on this flu wiki preparing for the worst, but HOPING for the best. TPTB are HOPING for the best case scenario. Hope is dangerous because it is not a plan, and it will keep the human spirit going far beyond a point than most people can imagine. Hope is awesome in that it allows people to survive and conquer insurmountable odds…. but it will keep the blinders on TPTB until just as it is too late. It is a bittersweet irony that what has helped us make achievements and strides as a race will keep us searching until the bitter end for a solution. I fear we will be the monkey with his fist caught in the flu jar. We will be unable to release the flu problem long enough to get our hand out of the jar and give the alarm bell a tug.

JWB – at 15:34

Feather Pillow

You have lots of company. I see crowds of happy people in a stadium differently today than I did a short time ago. They don’t know whats coming.

My PPF is over 8 today. That kicked in a few actons. I justed ordered more canned butter, will be stopping at Sams and the bank to get more cash on the way home. Today I told my boss that this is the last day I work overtime. He didn’t like it. Wait till Monday when I tell him I’m also leaving a hour earlier everyday too. ;-) Need more time to go out and enjoy this amazing civilization we got here.

Scaredy Cat – at 15:42

Commonground,

I agree the Indonesia thread is very sobering. It is the one thread, above all others, I check whenever I check in with the wiki. When I have to scroll down a bit to find it I feel a great sense of relief. When see it near the top of the list I go, “Damn!” I am particularly anxious right now because on Oct. 2, my 16 year old daughter flies to Hawaii for a week with her high school cross country team. I’m afraid a pandemic will be declared while she is there and she will be stranded, and I’m sure you can imagine the rest. I don’t want her to go, but she is insistent, as is my husband, but with the increasing clusters, I’d probably be increasingly PPF’d anyway, but with the Hawaii trip, I am so afraid it will all reach a head next week. Sometimes things are just too scary to talk about. Makes those rumblies in the tumblies really bad.

Hillbilly Bill – at 15:51

Most recent overheard comment that made me bang my head against the wall:

“Bird flu? I thought that was all over. You never hear anything about it on the news.”

My PPF is actually lower than it was several months ago. The reason is that I have quit hyperventilating because of extreme fear and finally resigned myself to a pandemic. I don’t know when or how bad, but I know it is coming. I used to cling to some hope that it would just die out, or that bird culling would get a handle on it. Now I realize that was false hope and almost laughably optomistic. I also know that no matter whether the pandemic is mild or severe, I will regret what I have done as far as preparations. If it is mild, I will regret the hard earned dollars I have spent for flu-specific preps. If it is severe, I will regret not spending more. All in all, H5N1 has not put me in a happy place.

NJ Jeeper – at 15:54

My last minute preps list became shorter because I am going to push some of those itmes to the do it now list. I just may be donating some food with a sorter shelf life to charity next spring. Still will have the list, but if I can not make the last run we will be ok, just not really really ok. You people are scaring me.

Edna Mode – at 15:59

Commonground, I agree that there has been oddly little discussion of the news items over the past couple of days. I’m feeling nervous, but no one else seemed to be, so I thought my sensors were on the blink. I think the snowball of news this week is pretty ominous. I can tell you for the first time in all of this that I am starting to seriously consider when to pull the trigger on taking my kids out of circulation. We’re not there yet, but we are close. It feels like weeks or months, but I could be totally over-reacting. Something is rotten in Denmark—or Geneva—when the WHO hops up on its soapbox and starts talking mutation. Every day of normalcy that we have, I am valuing more and more.

Feather Pillow – at 15:09 For about 4 years I worked with Hospice and sometimes this feels like the waiting that occurs before a long expected death.

Wow! I would not have ever come to that description on my own, but that is *exactly* what this feels like. My brother died after a long illness nearly 20 years ago, and those final days and weeks were, as you say, a suspended animation. I remember standing in line at a grocery store about a week before he died, looking around I feeling alienated and surreal at being surrounded by all the “normal” activity while my family was at home going through a quiet hell. There was a sense of burden that I knew something horrible that no one else did.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 16:03

There is a report on Fox News that bestfriends.org will be helping to ship displaced pets from Lebanon to the US. They showed cute dogs and cats on the segment.

If dogs due turn out to out to be a reservoir for H5N1 and we’re importing dogs from a bird flu endemic area, wouldn’t it be the height of irony if the pandemic started in the good ole US of A, just like 1918, while we have our eyes focused on Asia?

Edna Mode – at 16:08

Medical Maven, Hundreds of what? Deaths? I watch for your comments, but I don’t get what you mean. Can you clarify?

cactus – at 16:47
 Edna,

 I think she meant hundreds of either new cases or deaths in one day.

  Used to be (in the good old days,like last month)we`d see 1 or 2 new cases a week. It`s getting to the point that I almost dread opening the Indo thread every AM,when I get up.
OKbirdwatcherat 16:51

Commonground - As I have read the news items on the Indo and News threads the past couple days, all I could think was “OMG”. I think I’m like HBB, now just resigned to it. In a way it seems like there’s nothing left to say, just focus on being prepared. But I will be here, searching for every shred of news. Thanks!

JWB – at 17:04

I’ll be leaving work in a few minutes so I just checked the web traffic cams. Gridlock. A year ago I would never have thought that one day I would be thinking, “Someday I might actually miss being in a traffic jam.”

Watching in Texas – at 17:09

OKbirdwatcher at 16:51 - yep, kinda sad ain’t it? I think for some of us “oldbies”, we’ve been through the panic prep stage so many times and have had so many meltdowns that resignation is all we’ve got the energy for. Sometimes I think we’ve said all there is to say. Not to say that if we start seeing hundreds of cases that I’m not capable of a good meltdown and panic prep. I feel certain I still have a good case of hysterics left in me yet;-)

WIT

Olymom – at 17:11

Scaredy Cat — I’m with you DH just spent 3 weeks in India and I had visions of TSHTF and him being there for the duration. It helped me, while he was gone, to think in geologic time. H5N1 has been on the radar since about 1996 — and it hasn’t exploded out yet. Yes, there are some worrying events, but it may easily be the next winter or even the winter after that before there is a pandemic. A week in Hawaii? Totally awesome. We just can’t put our whole lives on hold for H5N1. Pack her up with masks, a gallon of sanitizer, gloves and be designated the doofus-most team mom (hey, somebody’s got to get that title). We were all PPF’d like crazy after Karo (and I got pretty weirded out by the Kazahistan transmissions — and Turkey’s outbreak too — and Cickelet — and, well, just about all of them ---). Anyway, my guy got back safe and sound and had a total blast. If there is a pandemic this winter, I’m glad he has this trip in his memory bank. You are in my thoughts.

KimTat 17:27

my ppf is up too, I kept repeating (quietly) to myself yesterday, its time to wake up now. I feel resigned, not flipping at the moment, tho have spent more time yesterday and today checking in and researching different items to get and do. I usually am very disaplined about working, while at work. Need to make a prep run this weekend for things to get.

Take care everyone.

Kim

centex – at 18:57

still hovering at a 4 -A

Calandriel – at 19:04

PPF is up to 6 now due to beginning of official flu season, mysterious lack of information on situation in Asia, and out-of-character sudden “chattiness” of WHO this week. Also, am considering two job offers: the better-paying one involves a lot of travel (Las Vegas, for one - can you think of any place worse to be stuck without preps than Las Vegas???? Also, can’t get home to my preps from LV) So I think I must now be officially nuts because I think I’ll be accepting the lower-paying position simply because I’ll be able to avoid traveling in October & January (height of flu season, yes, I know!) Make that 6.5.

centex – at 19:11

Hey Calandriel - my #2 daughter is living in LV now, and I have to admit that getting her to leave her new job in management at a major hotel and come home to SIP in Texas will be my biggest challenge yet. The logistics alone, time, gasoline, etc don’t look good.

Leo7 – at 19:29

InfoMass at 15 17:

Thanks for that post. Sometimes it seems like once you start reading between the lines on BF communication, you start doing it to all communication. My Mom called me after reading the AARP interview all freaked out and said “You’re not going to the hospital.” This was funny because I think she became a believer after finding it in that rag I mean mag. For me, I’m resigned to it too. But it’s weird, the discussion previously seen in other clusters isn’t up.

Scaredy Cat – at 19:47

Olymom,

Thanks for your kind words. Yeah, I’m going to be packing my daughter’s suitcase, that’s for sure. Also, we have friends who just moved to Hawaii (same island she’ll be on) and I am going to exact a promise (hopefully) that they will come rescue her if TSDHTF while she’s there.

Wolf – at 20:01

PPF remains a 7. Been there since May; seemed to me that if we’d made it through May without a known outbreak we might just have another ‘flu season’ to prep. What we don’t know about what is occuring in much of Asia and Africa keeps me on tenterhooks. Trying to top off preps. Getting a new roof on my 112 year old house (it’s a dump but I love her - and KNOW her - dearly) and gonna patch her up for another round. I’ve lived here nearly half my life. They’ll have to peel me outta here.

KimTat 20:11

Yea, I talked with my neighbor of 25 years. I had mentioned bird flu to her in the spring and she never brought it up again until tonight. Her and her husband have been prepping. Her husband works at a hospital and she said the hospital is going crazy trying to figure things out. Lots of nurses have already jumped ship. Her mothers nursing home had someone come out and speak to them and it sounds like they really told them the truth. Wow! She has talked with some of the ladies at the home that remember 1918 and how they would stack up bodies outside.

Just having a person to speak with is helpful. I’m off to the movies.

Anon_451 – at 20:14

KimT – at 20:11 I envy you. You have someone other than family to talk to about our little problem. You are so lucky.

Wolf – at 20:17

Anon_451 – at 20:14 You can talk to your family? :)

Eyeswideopen – at 20:21

like NJ Jeeper, my top off list has gotten shorter thanks to my current buying spree.

I’d like to suggest something. If there is no H2H pandemic this season, let’s all get together for the most awesome camping trip, BB RWFK blowout any national park has ever seen! We’ve all certainly for the gear!

How bout it. No guilt over buying the top off preps now - you’re just getting ready for the 3 day Fluwiki picnic. We can have prizes for coolest “I wish I’d thought of that prep,” best prep food dinner, etc. Can you imagine the brain power that would be there if we alll came? Mensa and Intertell (no spell check here) eat your hearts out.

Whadya all say?

JWB – at 20:29

All. You sort of have a family here. We’re here. Talk. I know damn well I’m about to start doing more than my fair share.

(P.S. I’m still looking for a damn chicken to kick!)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:33

Eyeswideopen – at 20:21 LOL!! Back in 2000 (remember Y2k??) I was the coordinator for our online Y2k group (Canada Sue had just started writing her Scenario book then) and we rented a house/cabins in Arkansas as a central meeting place & some of us had a great long weekend together. We played a Y2k Wheel of Fortune as part of our fun! Go for it!!

spam alert – at 20:36

JWB- I’m just gonna give those chickens in my freezer a slap next time I walk by. Just because I can.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:37

JWB – at 20:29 Just don’t kick nothin’ else for practice! You’re right, we ARE family!

lohrewok – at 20:38

Gosh durn it. That was me. And this thread is really long…

Wolf – at 20:39

Eyeswideopen – at 20:21 Boy, did you ever get me thinking about contests!!! ROFL! In all serious though, it might not be such a bad idea to have a - place - somewhere, prearranged, to meet someday. This really could be the ‘civilization buster’ that has so often been discussed. It would be nice to think about a gathering of like minds.

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:45

Eyeswideopen – at 20:21
I think you will find that Mensa is pretty well represented here <grin>.

Anon_451 – at 21:10

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:45 You are most correct many of us are Mensa.

Wolf – at 20:39 I have always though Oak Ridge TN. In the Smokey MTS and has the TVA Hydro Electric Plants. Only problem is to make sure they shut down the Nuke plant.

JWB – at 20:29 spam alert – at 20:36 I will have to slap a can, no frozen or live chickens allow in my house.

Wolf – at 20:17 DW lets me rant about it and nods her head. She trust me to protect the family and I have not failed her yet. (H5N1 may be more than I can fight). Talking here is not the same as being able to argue in person and in the end coming up with the right decisions.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:15

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:45 Eyeswideopen – at 20:21 I think you will find that Mensa is pretty well represented here <grin>.

Worthy of the quote thread — I’ll put it there!

JWB – at 21:18

For some some reason, and for some time, the date May 15th 2007 has been my ‘survive till then’ date. Let’s meet then. Sounds like this may be one hell of a party!

I’ll bring the pinatas’ (CHICKENS!!, yea baby now we’re talking!)

bgw in MT – at 21:20

My reaction to the news of the last two days has been exactly the same as the rest of you. So much for those that accuse us of group think. Those of us that have been following bird flu for a long,long time see the nuances in bird flu news because we know what has been written before and the usual reactions of agencies and governments.

It’s a lot like the seasoned China watchers Anon 22 has talked about. When you’ve studied something for a long time, you begin to see the subtle signals (or not so subtle)in news reports on the subject.

I ordered 38 lbs of shelf stable cheese yesterday so I think that proves my PPF went up all by itself.

Wolf – at 21:32

Anon_451 – at 21:10 Love the Smokies - coming from the mountainless north, and having experienced the grandeur of the Rockies - I call them “soft mountains” in the best sense of the word. However, I’d probably choose Kentucky rather than Tennessee. Up-nort’-here, hey - we’ve got water. Wisconsin. Michigan. Minnesota. Lots and lots of water. BYOF (bringyourownfilter:) I’m not kidding about this, though. It’s not a bad idea to plan now for a breakdown. I hope, by my previous posts, you know I’m no alarmist. But I’d kinda like to have a - place - maybe a bar ?- somewhere… where I could go to a wall and check out the cards and say “Hey, look! MaMa made it! And Medical Maven! And goddamnit, Goju saw it through! Monotreme! You old duckbill! F$#@-in eh!” I’m just saying let’s think about it.

Eyeswideopen – at 21:41

DennisC - I do not doubt Mensa and groups higher are represented here. I see the intelligence every day.

Okay, so if there’s no pandemic we shoot for around May 15. If there is a pandemic between now and then and it is a “civilization buster,” where do we all meet up if that’s what we want to do?

Anon_451 – at 21:43

Wolf – at 21:32 Maybe we need to start a thread on that. Saying the worst happens, where could we meet after. With this group we at least could put some degree of civilization back together.

Wolf – at 21:47

Eyeswideopen – at 21:41 Somewhere our Canadian & European friends can get to.

Wolf – at 21:59

Wolf – at 21:47 God! That reads so awful! What I MEAN is a place that anyone who can get to the americas can reach easily. Good grief.

Wolf – at 22:05

Even so - set ‘em up. “Meeting places” everywhere. Do it now.

Anon_451 – at 22:09
SCW AZ – at 22:28

If it’s a “civilization buster”, Stephan King would suggest Boulder, Co. . .

If you’re a bad guy, it’s Las Vegas

Green Mom – at 22:52

Iceland! Isn’t that like No. 2 on the top ten list of things to do if it goes pandemic? Buy a ticket to Iceland?

I think I’m gonna to have plenty of time to finish those Sagas.

Medical Maven – at 22:53

San Luis Valley-Southern Colorado-Sangre De Cristo Mountain Range borders the East----One of the highest Desert Valleys in the world with lots of subsurface water, majestic views, major pathway for the post-ice age settlers of North America. A stunning Mt. Blanca snowcapped in the early Soring, a good place to live or die.

Fly in to Colorado Springs or Pueblo and rent a car to get to Alamosa, a nice little town with good accomodations.

Good for the worst or best of scenarios, if you can get there.

Eyeswideopen – at 23:03

Ok San Luis Valley in the Sangre De Cristo is our first suggestion from Med Mav. Sounds gorgeous and a great place to begin again.

JWB – at 23:09

OK. We didn’t study this thing for this long to immediately throw in the towel. Don’t you people piss me off anymore than I am already. Take three long breathes, say a prayer, ….get some much needed sleep.

Tom DVM – at 23:14

JWB. You forgot about the chicken.

JWB – at 23:32

Thanks Tom.

You have a knack for popping in when you are really needed. 8-D

KimTat 23:42

I haven’t had family to talk to, they refuse to have bird flu mentioned, so it’s awesome to have my neighbors involved. We were sharing ideas face to face, and I got to tell you I had more advice to share mainly because of you guys here.

30 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:01

JWB – at 23:09 KICK that chicken!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:03

KimT, it might be one of your neighbors that talks to your husband & brings him around…..sometimes we just can’t reach ‘our own’.

JWB – at 00:14

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:01

 I think we all need to go kick a chicken. and maybe each other.

What the hell happened to us?

A collective mental meltdown via the internet?

Is that a first?

Wow, if thats all you people have got, lots of luck. I was certain that we had a community of forward thinking people.

HELLO?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:19

You know, sometimes even the smartest among us has a ‘duh’ moment every now and then.

NoFluingAroundat 00:29

http://203.150.224.53/2005/09/05/national/index.php?news=national_18514899.html

Experts warn alert level should be at 4 in september of 2005. Tell me what this does for your PPF?

KimTat 00:33

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:03 Thanks, I don’t have a husband, single mom here. I’m doing ok, its just was really nice to share ideas back and forth with someone 3 dimensional.(sp)

I’ve accomplished quite abit. Things are looking up, the first biopsy came back negative, my nasty little cold is finally going away and I have a bit more energy now, all I’ve wanted to do is sleep after work for the past few weeks.

I’m off to the store first thing in the morning to get more supplies.

I’m resigned to this happening, I’ll keep preparing until I can’t go out anymore, my ppf has been going up but I really don’t feel as if I am having a meltdown(yet). I have one neighbor preparing and she said it was because I mentioned it to her in the spring. I talked with another neighbor a month or so ago and gave her handouts/flyers. She doesnt have a computer and since she is depending on the MSM for news she is a bit behind. i’ll give her a push this weekend, she is a single mom too.

I think I’ll tackle a few other neighbors. I seem to have more luck with neighbors then I do family. I talked with a coworker today, we have chatted before and well she is a bit of a space, but asked her if she was still prepping and she said no, she said she would just show up at my house,sigh. Told her that once it starts I am not opening the door and that I was prepared to protect my daughter in any way from getting sick…she looked at me and her eyes got big, and she says but your always so nice. Maybe she will get a clue now, that this is serious and not a game.

Kickachicken – at 00:37

Well, we’re talking about a year ago?

On the fence and leaning – at 00:37

2005? Old news or are you seeing something I am missing at this late hour?

InKyat 00:42

JWB - at 00:14

Who’s throwing in a towel? I’m building raised garden beds next week and checking out a wood stove tomorrow. I’m not kicking any chickens though. They’ve got hard enough luck as is. Think I’d rather take aim at TBTB.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 01:13

KimT – at 00:33 I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:03 Thanks, I don’t have a husband, single mom here. I’m doing ok, its just was really nice to share ideas back and forth with someone 3 dimensional.(sp)

Big goof on my part! Sorry! Is it chauvenistic when a girl says something stupid like that? I know you’ve had the biopsy thing hanging there in your path too, so finding someone to share with is one of your bigger preps! I’m glad it was negative.

Great work with your neighbors—that’s sooooo frustrating when you get blank stares!

NS1 – at 04:57

Dennis in Colorado at 20:45-

I think you will find that Mensa is pretty well represented here <grin>.

Me too. Sat at the same table starting in childhood.

Dr Dave – at 05:22

It is that time of year in northern Illinois when the Canada goose begins to assemble in larger and larger gaggles. All day long and well into the evening you can see them flying from pond to pond, gorging themselves on the lawns of the schools, the parks, and the commercial buildings. Mallard ducks are among them, too. Although the ducks do not fly with the geese, the ducks visit the same ponds and nibble on the same grass and drink the same water. They leave their saliva everywhere they drink or feed.

Not only have they left their saliva in the water and on the grass, but they all defecate in the ponds where they swim and in same locations where they feed and where humans walk and where kids play. They defecate on the baseball diamonds and the soccer fields and the football fields, too. As these birds pass overhead, they defecate onto buildings and streets and cars.

Whatever contaminants are present in their feces or their saliva can be carried indoors by the feet of people and pets. Whatever contaminants are present in their feces or their saliva could be ingested by the mammals and other birds that drink from the ponds. Are the ducks and geese placing us at risk?

I guess I must be at a PPF of 9 because I see hazards flying right over my house.

Commonground – at 05:43

It’s Saturday morn, and I’ve enjoyed reading this thread over my coffee. Now….I will go (grudgingly) to scope out the news. I hope there are no more patients today.

LauraBat 06:41

I think I’m starting to feel a bit like HBB - resigned to the fact that it probably is going to happen. This has actually reduced my stress. There’s not a thing I can do to stop it. I just have to keep plugging away to prepare to fight it. I’m doing my best to get others to prepr but have not been overly successful. I still need lots more food but we just plunked down serious$$$ for a generator to insure our well works and we can keep a fridge running. I feel semi-prepped, and I know I’m more prepped than virtually all in my area or family, but it doesn’t feel nearly enough when I look at what’s happening and how bad it can get.

01 October 2006

Birdie – at 13:18

On the fence and leaning – at 00:37 2005? Old news or are you seeing something I am missing at this late hour?

After I read the article dated sept, 2005, made me wonder, if in 2005 they suggested level 4, then it must be a lot closer to level 5 at this point to the insiders.

Georgia O – at 15:14

I just came back from a Doctor’s Without Borders demonstration and was able to talk to one of their Epidemiologist (sp?). I ask her what if anything they were doing to prepare for avain panflu. She said nothing that she knew of but that she was working in Africa last year when it broke there and how surreal and frightening it was at how fast panic broke out and with all of the burning of the chickens and eggs. She also commented on how with the CDC being here in Atlanta that we should be getting the 1st and best info out there. I had to laugh and tell her that Atlanta is receiving no info at all. I then ask her what her personal opinion was on the subject - she hesitated and then said “I am not qualified to comment on that”. I don’t know, maybe I looked like a loon (I really don’t think so), but how can an epidemiologist not be qualified to have an opinion on a potential pandemic?

Why oh why won’t the medical people talk about this?! Don’t really expect an answer, just can’t believe it!

PPF getting higher every day now……

crfullmoon – at 15:40

Any higher and I’d be SIP. Georgia O, I swear those who know and won’t talk about it must have got some “don’t stampede the expendable sheeple” directive (they didn’t question the rationality of, since it means people aren’t preparing).

Dr Dave – at 05:22, made me recall sitting in a car a couple months ago, watching geese walk over “their” parking lot/pond/grass/through a shopping plaza (and people getting out to throw bread to them -not supposed to) I could see one goose who looked sick; fluid drooling out of its mouth as it walked with the others.

Birdie: “if in 2005 they suggested level 4, then it must be a lot closer to level 5 at this point to the insiders.”

Sure adds up that way to me, too.

Georgia O – at 17:43

Expendable sheeple……BAHaaahahahaha!

Blue – at 20:15

crfullmoon-

 Where was this sick goose? Did you report it?

02 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 01:25

GEORGIA O.--

I asked an Infectious Desease Doctor about the whole Pandemic thing the other day…bottom line…

“ The majority of the human race, is just …plain….screwed.”

And he was serious. :-S

It made my PPF go up to about a 7…especially knowing that here in my county, everything has been left up to the local Health Department….and they have done NOTHING ! Zero…Zip…

Commonground – at 07:41

Georgia O, Thanks for the post. Very interesting.

crfullmoon – at 09:33

Blue – at 20:15, this was in Middlesex county, MA, and no, I didn’t report it. Heard enough elsewhere to know how’d it’d go: officials would dither over whose jurisdicition, the goose was walking around, fergussussakes; not dead, only one, not “3 or more of the same species”. And they’d probably have more stuff to test for West Nile or EEE than they do for H5N1. Recently found out friend next town over in MA had eaten half a bag of spinach, before the e-coli hit the news, and gotten wicked ill, but wasn’t passing blood and never was seen nor needed hospitilization, nore tested, nor was the remaining spinach tested despite many calls and, yeah, someone will get back to you…

The expendable sheeple -and the sheeple who think they’re not expendable but that it’s smartest not to tell the public-

and us people watching icebergs and slow-motion train wrecks for years, we’re all screwed.

Just stumbled across The Busybody while Googling for a quote: “As Tolkien scholar Tom Shippey puts it:

“Those who need hope to keep going will fall prey to despair when their hope is ultimately withdrawn.

But those like Sam and Pippin who feel from the start that the whole thing is going to be a disaster remain immune, even cheerful, when their expectations are confirmed.” (JRR Tolkien: Author of the Century, p 153).

This is why courage and cheer supplant hope as proper pagan virtues.”

Medical Maven – at 09:54

crfullmoon at 9:33-“This is why courage and cheer supplant hope as proper pagan virtues”.-JRR Tolkien

Profound thoughts you have offered-up here on this fine Fall morning.

“Hope” is, indeed, not enough in the direst of times. You need an “in-your-face” attitude even as and when the worst happens. I suspect that is part of what I will find when I read that book “Deep Survival”. It is part of what I have found in myself in the darkest of times. A “new” mode of living and thinking will have to be REINSTITUTED by all would-be survivors.

And I will also muse that if you and yours must end, do so with courage and cheer because those energies will expire with the wind.

crfullmoon – at 09:57

Meanwhile, back to fighting “the long defeat”.

Good luck to all of good will.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:58

GeorgiaO at 15:14

Reading between the lines, I get a strong sense that medical and health officials at conferences, behind closed doors, etc., have either been explicitly told, or urged, not to share the bad news with the general public. I know the family member (Dr. in public health) who originally tipped me off to the idea of stockpiling 6 to 8 weeks of food, not 2 weeks, definitly gave me the sense that I should not share this news with anyone other than close friends and family. I laughed at the time because I could assure him that NO ONE WOULD LISTEN anyhow to such a ridiculous suggestion. I am just speculating here that asking an epidimiologist for his/her opinion, when there is no prior connection to that person, might well result in a brush-off answer; whereas asking him or her when you have a personal connection might well yield a different answer.

crfullmoon – at 10:01

(I think Tom Shippey wrote, “This is why courage and cheer supplant hope as proper pagan virtues”, credit where credit is due. Or maybe The Busybody said it. I’m not sleeping well enough to sort that.)

Snowhound1 – at 10:07

And Winston Churchill in 1936, warning his countrymen of the approaching danger, and to prepare for it…

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”

I think his words apply equally well today, with the threat that seems to be looming in our future.

MnEagleat 10:33

Winston Churchill also said:

“When you’re going though hell, just keep on going.”

Georgia O – at 10:46

Madamspinner - I have felt the same about my city (Atlanta, GA USA), but then I came across a blurb on our Health Dept. web site that indeed we are having planning sessions (next is tomorrow 6:30 downtown) but there has been no press that I’ve seen about this.

Average Concerned Mom - I also had a family member involved in gov’t health start me and mine on prepping for 6–8weeks (could we be related?) and taking this seriously. Regarding the epidimologist - You’re right, I knew when I ask that it was a long shot, but I was hoping that someone with her life experience might be a little more willing to share. I did find it very interesting how hand-in-hand what they were showing us could so easily be interpreted with how the situation might be here during panflu.

If anyone has the opportunity to attend one of the Doctors Without Borders demonstrations, I would highly recommend going. I came away with knowing how to build a latrine, a propper trash incinerator for hazardous material, and a very realistic idea on what to expect if things get bad.

03 October 2006

JWB – at 08:43

I’m at 8.473 and climbing.

See Elder Berry – at 19:21 on the IndonesiaOutbreaksXIII thread. Not good.

Moved up the delivery date for this weekend for two more cords of wood.

OKbirdwatcherat 11:30

GeorgiaO at 15:14 -

Anyone is “qualified” to have a personal opinion about anything. The reluctance to voice an opinion, in this situation, speaks volumes.

On the fence and hey, stop pushing – at 14:48

My PPF is climbing slightly but it’s almost like a mass hysteria issue. There are some truly anxious people on here and there posts are full of energy and emotion. Hard not to start to worry more. What’s holding me back? It seems like every few months we go through this roller coaster of new activity followed by a news vacuum. The dust flies, new topics get started and then it calms down for a bit. I am at a 4.

On the fence and hey, stop pushing – at 14:49

My PPF is climbing slightly but it’s almost like a mass hysteria issue. There are some truly anxious people on here and their posts are full of energy and emotion. Hard not to start to worry more. What’s holding me back? It seems like every few months we go through this roller coaster of new activity followed by a news vacuum. The dust flies, new topics get started and then it calms down for a bit. I am at a 4.

anonymous – at 15:31

On the fence and hey, stop pushing – at 14:49

“There are some truly anxious people on here and their posts are full of energy and emotion.”

My observation as well.

diana – at 15:34

my factor is still at 0.5…..but. I am cashing in my money market account since my bank changed hands and the new rate is ridiculously low. Will re-invest locally where the rate is 4.5. What I have considered is investing in some preps I deemed wasteful and sending out a larger Christmas check a few months early to a younger son who has 3 children with a suggestion that they put some into preps if they haven’t done so. I never interfere, only suggested preps for the baby months ago. They can do whatever they deem fit. Even 0.5 is more than I like.

INFOMASS – at 15:41

anonymous at 15:31: I guess Dr. Nabarro is one of those people and what does he know?

anonymous – at 15:47

INFOMASS – at 15:41

I have simply agreed with On the fence and hey, stop pushing – at 14:49.

You are more than welcome to disagree. : )

Medical Maven – at 16:00

I err on the side of caution. I don’t like the idea of being suckerpunched by a virus. And worse than that, being dependent on the welfare of “strangers” in the government who know less than I do, who have planned less than I have.

Just like with terrorists, the nascent panflu virus only has to get lucky ONCE with me and my family, EVEN THOUGH I have been hypervigilant evey other time. Let your guard down, let your life go.

For me, if we get past late Fall 2007 without a frightening progression, nor with the birth of a panflu, then I will start to breathe slightly easier and think we might actually get to the end of the decade unscathed.

But the above is truly a rosy, best-case scenario. But one can dream?

INFOMASS – at 16:05

anonymous at 15:47: Point taken. Who was it that said, “If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you probably do not understand the situation”? ;)

anonymous – at 16:12

INFOMASS – at 16:05

LOL. Good one. ; )

Anon_451 – at 19:56

After a very though full look at the RO factor, My PPF has dropped to zero. Until I see a cluster growing faster then the Indo group can keep up with it I will not sweat the small stuff. (check the thread “A Sever Pandemic is likely part 5).

Anon_451 – at 20:00

Sorry make that part 6

KimTat 20:11

Anon_451 – at 20:00 I read that too and it helped. Hope he/she is right with his numbers.

I would like to get the money to buy a wood burner one of these days, just maybe I will have time, the longer the better.

I need to work more on organization around my home too, save more money to be able to afford to sip for awhile, get my life in order, lose a few pounds, retire in 20 years…my ppf went down abit, maybe I will be able to sleep through the night now. But I will keep prepping in the mean while.

Anon_451 – at 20:18

KimT – at 20:11 I am with you Kim. I will keep my preps up and stay watch full and continue to learn all that I can. But maybe I can get a good nights sleep for a change.

KimTat 20:24

I read part 6 at work and didn’t connect that it was you when I got home.

But it did help. Thanks!

Medical Maven – at 20:26

Anon_451 at 19:56-“Zero” for a PPF is flat-lining, not a good place to be when a “cause” (one novel mutation) could shoot your “consequence” (RO factor) through the roof. (And with all of the studies that Monotreme and Anon-22 have laid out for us I don’t think that is an exaggeration).

This situation we find ourselves in is what I would call a biological/virological “hangfire” like a rusty gun in which the trigger has been pulled and the inner mechanism is under strain and nobody knows if the hammer will fall. It is all or nothing, an exquisitely excruciating point in time for thinking human beings.

crfullmoon – at 20:34

A watched pot on the fire only seems to never boil , at a certain point in watching, and the scientists so far don’t see Mother Nature turning down the heat. Certainly no way for us disorganized mortals to take the pot off the fire.

Wolf – at 20:51

Although I go through the same upsanddowns described, I remain at a solid 7. There is no doubt in my mind that all species have a ‘self regulating’ mechanism. Nature’s population control. Animal husbandry experts have written at length about the strange things that happen when you try to cram too many of one species into a given space. Behavioral problems, infectious disease and eventual environmental degradation. It’s simply not meant to be. We have, as a species, on a massive, rapid, unprecedented scale brought about untold and unknown devastation on this planet. Kurt Vonnegut wrote to a friend how Mother Earth’s immune system was starting to kick in. I’ve read words to that effect here on this forum, and couldn’t agree more. If it’s not H5N1, there are plenty of scourges, of many sorts, in the wings. For now, I stash food and water for the future. I expect eventually I’ll carry nothing but my goodwill for the present. I WILL adapt.

Anon_451 – at 21:14

Medical Maven – at 20:26 and others. Please understand that my PPF was very low to begin with. I have prepped to the point where, if the balloon goes up, I just go home and shut the door. So I am watch full and I will maintain my preps (DW rotates them during the course of normal meals). But unless I see a significant uptick in the action, I’m chilling.

Georgia O – at 21:36

Okbirdwatcher at 11:30 -

Greetings from a displaced fellow Okie! I couldn’t agree more, and you didn’t even see the look on her face.

I just came from a county planning meeting where all of 4 (representing the citizens of the City of Atlanta) were in attendance! I did come away feeling better about what the Fulton County level gov’t is trying to achieve and at how encouraging they are at being contacted directly.

I also am quite certain that one of them spent a good deal of time here on the wikie today!

Medical Maven – at 22:09

Anon_451 at 21:14-Well then, you are pretty much where I am at. We are just calibrated differently. : )

OKbirdwatcherat 22:32

Georgia O - Hello! Great to have another Okie on the forum. My PPF has been creeping up lately too, so I’m gonna mosey on over to the “A Severe Pandemic is Likely” Part 6 thread mentioned by Anon_451 above. I could use a little good news. Check in on the “Oklahoma Preppers” thread any ol’ time. We’d be glad to have your input.

Goju – at 23:17

I just read the RO thread… and am very happy that i bouight 250 pounds of rice and 200 pounds of beans, 150 heatermeals and 2 surefire flashlights yesterday.

All it wiil take is one change in the virus and we are off to the races. Go ahead and discuss RO under 1.0 blah blah blah.

H5N1 is proving to be the beast that it is…. every day. new species, new humans, new clusters… oh right… clusters - 3 weeks ago i was ready to call off the pandemic… now i see what? 6 clusters and more suspected patients than i can keep track of.

all it takes is one.

now i need a big fireplace pot to ccok it all in… and the space to store it all.

Maybe i can rest easier knowing we can eat for a year - or that we can help feed someone else who pops in.

Goju – at 23:18

I just read the RO thread… and am very happy that i bouight 250 pounds of rice and 200 pounds of beans, 150 heatermeals and 2 surefire flashlights yesterday.

All it wiil take is one change in the virus and we are off to the races. Go ahead and discuss RO under 1.0 blah blah blah.

H5N1 is proving to be the beast that it is…. every day. new species, new humans, new clusters… oh right… clusters - 3 weeks ago i was ready to call off the pandemic… now i see what? 6 clusters and more suspected patients than i can keep track of.

all it takes is one.

now i need a big fireplace pot to ccok it all in… and the space to store it all.

Maybe i can rest easier knowing we can eat for a year - or that we can help feed someone else who pops in.

On the fence and hey stop pushing – at 23:27

Hey Mods, can you start a new thread. this one is getting a bit loooooong. Thanks.

04 October 2006

Oremus – at 00:44

I’m not a mod, but anyone can start a new thread. Here you go:

Whats Your PPF Part V

Scaredy Cat – at 01:01

Med Maven at something something:26,

That was so awesomely written, if I weren’t so lazy I’d put it on the quotes thread.

Monotreme – at 08:44

closed and continued here.

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