Forum: The Current Suspected Clusters At Karo 2

a map? looks around

Continued from here

Even though the latest cases in Indonesia have tested negative for H5N1, it may still be instructive for us to consider the implications of clusters occurring in adjacent areas. The question is, what are the chances of the virus from the 8 human cases having persisted and are now circulating in the local poultry, so that people are at risk of being infected by a strain that had gone through several human hosts? Even if this cluster proves to be a false alarm, sooner or later, if we continue to have bigger and bigger clusters, those questions will need to be asked.

Especially when the local authorities do not do 100% culling and take multiple poultry, human, pig, environmental samples.

I’d show you mine but that’d promote my website (although I swear it’s never made a dime)… but maps are my thing

The revised map is here:

The cluster in May we suspect was in Tikapanah district, on the bottom. The current suspected cases are from Sumbul, which is less than 5 miles away (as the crow flies), and Berastagi, about 8 miles away.

so as your theory goes… as the final person to get H5N1 fled the hospital he passed through two villages. was one of them the village of this new non H5N1 cluster… er okay the guy flees the hospital and somehow infects chickens in one of these villages. it lingers there mutated from the initial strain of H5N1 only to emerge at some as yet unknown date?

moeb,

There were at least 2 patients who fled from hospitals, God knows where they went and hid.

Plus people were exposed to chickens the whole time, after they got sick and before they got to hospital.

Thanks to ukbird, who posted this newslink Sole survivor in bird flu cluster shuns treatment

“MEDAN, Indonesia - The sole survivor in a cluster of Indonesian relatives infected with bird flu lies in an open-air hospital room, chickens pecking outside his door and visitors shuffling in and out without masks or protective gear.”

yes I remember reading that some time ago

now this would have killed any chickens it came in contact with so it would have had to be in something else, right?

Not necessarily. In principle, HP H5N1 kills all chickens. But we don’t know if the chickens were vaccinated. If they were, not all of them would die.

Plus there are also ducks everywhere. Mostly they are asymptomatic.

And pigs.

ducks I could believe, of pigs I am dubious. I don’t recall any chickens being vaccinated there. Did indonesia buy some? So anyway let’s say some is lurking there. Mutated in what way? Upper respiratory?

drums his fingers on his desk while wondering what happened to anon_1 through 21

I wonder how old these chickens are when they keel over dead. I’ve never read a description of “chicks” dying of H5N1.

These snips from articles posted at flutrackers (and perhaps here at the wiki as well) last May, give names of locations from which the family got chicken manure. In particular the locations of Binjai and Langkat are mentioned in that regard, and I’m thinking this cannot be too terribly far from where they actually lived.

from this flutracker page

5–11 at 1:27 am

“So far, the bird flu virus in North Sumatra has only affected fowl. Thirteen regencies/cities have been put on bird flu alert after the virus was found in local birds,” Fatni said. She said the cities on bird flu alert included Binjai, Deli Serdang, Langkat and Medan.

5–11 at 8:19 am

“the Family that was killed it was suspected resulting from bird flu in the Karo Regency, North Sumatra (North Sumatra) evidently liked to work the soil. They often bought manure from Binjai and Langkat, the area that his poultry was stated positive affected avian influenza (AI).”

“According to him, the Karo Land in Medan was the territory that his poultry was negative AI. “After was massaged-massaged evidently the family liked to work the soil and use manure that was made from Binjai and Langkat that were the positive place of bird flu in 2005,” he explained.”

I do not believe in the reports of the negative tests. I suspicion they are either false negatives or have actually not been completed yet. This has happened WAY too many times before.

Also posted on the news thread.

Here’s an update on Karo. This article was dated Aug 4.

Per machine translation using Toggletext:

Liputan6.com, Kabanjahe: villagers the Mufakat Source, the Kabanjahe Subdistrict, the Tana Karo Regency, North Sumatra, in a crowd memeriksakan himself to the local community health centre. Dozens of citizens visited the Kabanjahe Community Health Centre since the morning till the afternoon, on Thursday (3/8). The community health centre doctor said after twice checked, the citizen that came to not show signs of bird flu. The community health centre was with the guest after the discovery of the case of the assumption of bird flu in the Mufakat Source Village. Up to now, still had three citizens who underwent the intensive maintenance because of not yet receiving results of the upper laboratory test the sample of blood and their saliva [read: the Health three patients the Assumption of Bird Flu of improving]. Reni Tarigan, villagers the Mufakat Source that could undergo treated inap in the Kabanjahe Public Hospital denied it suffered bird flu. “I was not convinced and believed was affected by bird flu, only was feverish and normal influenza,” said your mother of Alfian Sitepu and Zulhan Sitepu. Reni and his two children were the assumption patient of bird flu that has been healthy and came home. The reporting about the case of bird flu made the atmosphere of the Mufakat Source Village be not as busy the normal day. Some citizens reduced the activity as engaging in farming. The citizen’s residence of the assumption of bird flu like Moses Perangin-wind and Dedek Sitepu appeared always to be closed. On the same day the Government of the Tana Karo Regency destroyed thousands of chicken poultries in five villages in a radius of five kilometre from the location of the residence of three assumption patients of bird flu. The burning of the chicken was carried together out by the Conference Headed By the Tana Karo Area with the citizen in the Mufakat region of the Source Village [read: Thousands Of tails of the Chicken were in Tana Karo destroyed]. Some citizens willingly handed over his poultry because worried was attacked by the virus H5N1. After being gathered poultries were brought to the Subdistrict of three bows, around 20 kilometre from the Mufakat Source Village. In this location, the extermination 10 thousand poultries were done together tonight in order to not disrupt the community’s order. According to plan, the Tana Karo Regional Government will give compensation to the citizen of Rp 12. 500 per the tail. The official will destroy the poultry as far as the radius five kilometre from the Village

http://www.liputan6.com/view/7,126895,1,0,1154664640.html

DoubleD – at 00:26

I have some questions about the tests too. Hopefully it is truly just regular flu. Time will tell.

Also posted on the news thread:

KABANJAHE — MIOL: the Government of the Regency (the Regional Government) Karo carried out the extermination (depopulation) the poultry for prevented expanded him the spreading of the virus avian influenza (AI) or bird flu that was contagious in the regency. The Karo Regional Government destroyed totalling 2. 824 tails of the poultry in the Kabanjahe Subdistrict, on Wednesday night (2/8). The extermination was carried out in four villages that including to the radius 5 kilometre (km) from the Sumbul Village, the location of the discovery of five chickens died resulting from positive bird flu. The village namely the Ketaren Village, the Great Village, the Kaban Village, and the Mufakat Source Village or the Sumbul Village. The poultry kind that was destroyed including the chicken and the duck. The extermination in four villages was not yet completely complete and will be continued on Thursday night. The extermination will continue to continue as far as all the poultry to the radius 5 km from the Sumbul Village was not again that terjangkit the virus H5N1. Beforehand, the Karo Regional Government destroyed 10. 845 chickens on July 23–27 2006. The extermination was carried out in five places, namely the Padang district Mas, the Leto Gong, the Country Gong, Lau Cimba, and Bunu Great. From the series of the extermination of the poultry, the Karo Regional Government destroyed the total poultry around 13. 669 tails. The “plague of bird flu must serious was handled.” Until this did not have the problem in doing the extermination of the poultry, said the Regent Karo Good Fortune Daniel Sinulingga in Kabanjahe, on Thursday. The extermination of the poultry was carried out around struck 23. 00 WIB. The team of the extermination was led by the Regent Karo Good Fortune Daniel Sinulingga. The team consisted of the Regional Government personnel the Karo Regency, the TNI, and police. Not all the members tim Made use of clothes pengaman complete. The team’s member visited the inhabitants’s houses to take all the poultry kinds. The poultries were taken from the pen, then was gathered to trucks that were provided. Afterwards the trucks carried the poultry to the Sumbul football field to be destroyed by means of burnt. After being burnt, the poultry carcass ditumpuk in a hole and was stockpiled with the land. Several citizens of the owner of the poultry cried when their poultry was taken to be destroyed. S Karokaro, the local breeder, admitted to experiencing the loss millions rupiah resulting from the extermination. “This chicken livestock the source of the production of my family.” I regretted the government method that had not given counselling since early to avoid the bird flu virus. Suddenly now our chicken must be destroyed. Although having compensation, that was inappropriate, the price of this current nonpedigreed chicken Rp25 thousand per kilogram (kg), now compensation only Rp12. 500, he said with the sad tone. Pemeriksaan The Karo Regional Government began to carry out the prevention went out and the entry of the poultry and manure from and to the Karo Regency. The official made the command post of the inspection of vehicles that it was suspected brought the poultry and manure in the border of Karo-Deli Serdang and the border Karo-Dairi.

http://www.mediaindo.co.id/berita.asp?id=107781

There was mass culling of chicken: Okieman – at 00:30

DoubleD – at 00:26 Okieman – at 00:32

Indonesia’s local tests shows six suspects negative of bird flu

Indonesia’s local tests on six suspected people of having avian influenza from the same district with the biggest cluster found in May in North Sumatra province were negative, eliminating fears of new cluster, a senior official of the Health Ministry said in Jakarta Thursday.

Only three of the suspected people would like to be hospitalized, and only six specimen can be obtained of the seven suspected people, said Kandun.

http://tinyurl.com/oyojp

Since samples were sent to the WHO labs, we will just have to wait for confirmation.

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