I asked this on another forum. I shall ask it here, too. You know how it is believed that the 1918 flu was avian in origin? How come we never hear about a bunch of dead birds then, too. Or am I wrong and it wasn’t avian. Or am I right and the birds were simply carriers? Or was it pigs?
Yes, the 1918 virus was found to be avian.
Avian origin does not mean there had to be dead birds. Wild aquatic birds are the natural hosts of flu viruses. All known subtypes of influenza A viruses can be found in them without causing disease.
I believe H1N1 (1918) was a low pathogenic avian virus which means while it evolved to kill humans, it did not kill large numbers of birds as with H5N1.
As I understand it, Swine influenza was not identified as a disease before 1918 and while some think pigs were an intermediary step for H1N1, others including myself believe that the influenza in pigs in 1918 originated in humans…the reverse transmission of today…
…and you are right…I believe large numbers of pigs died and swine influenza has been with us every since.
Tom DVM- This implies that the lack of concern many agencies seem to show toward the presence of a Low-Path AI is misplaced? That it is possible for a LP-AI to rear up and become a monster?
Eccles. Unless I misunderstood H1N1 in 1918 which I don’t think I did, you have a very good point.
I think the thing is that there are some very weird things going on with influenza viruses and we might be able to bet against one possible pandemic virus but what are the odds when you have many pandemic possible viruses. ] The H3N8 virus that just jumped to dogs from horses after fifty years of stability, did not occur just because dogs may have inadvertently been fed horse meat but because of changes in the virus….
Previous to 1997, high pathogenic viruses were thought not to affect wild ducks or humans. Now we have H5 and H7 and maybe H9 affecting humans…
…and is it me, or does the Norwalk virus seem to be doing a heck of a lot more damage than a ten-twenty years ago.
The bottom line is a careful assessment indicates the odds are against us.
Swayne et.al, Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, June 2003, 222:11 - “The virulence of H5 and H7 viruses in chickens does not correlate with their ability to infect and cause disease in humans.”
Alexander, Veterinary Microbiology 74 (2000) - “In January 1995, several flocks in the states of Puebla and Queretarto which had shown high mortality and lesions characteristic of HPAI (Senne et al., 1996b) were reported as infected with HPAI virus of H5N2 subtype. It seemed highly likely that the original virus of low pathogenicity had mutated to virulence…”
Eccles
“That it is possible for a LP-AI to rear up and become a monster?”
If all pandemic viruses are influenza A viruses, and if influenza A viruses of all possible subtypes exist in aquatic wild birds, then LPAI is the source of ALL pandemics.
…that is what they say…
Speaking of dead animals… my parents live in one of the many subdivisions built on the mountainsides in Utah. My mother has been walking every day for exercise and she said just this past week that there is one spot in a ravine where she spied a large dead animal. She went closer out of curiosity, thinking it was a dead deer or horse. It turned out to be a cow. Its bones were completely picked clean (they have difficulty with cougars in the area.) However, every day last week another dead cow was added to the rest. there were six at last count. She was wondering if she should say anything to anybody??? I suggested she call the health department, most definitely! Each cow was completely down to the bones except for the heads, that’s how she figured they were cows. What would motivate a person to do that? for fear of reporting dead cows? why would they be completely cleaned of flesh etc. but not the heads? I’m confused as much as my mother. But, I was definitely more worried than she was. What the heck was she doing getting too close to those dead animals??? What if they were infected and the owner didn’t want to have to report it? that’s my best guess—any better informed guesses or thoughts welcome???
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