Does anyone else out there think that the government does not have our best interests at heart regarding pandemic flu? How many of us really believe that they would risk sounding the alarm and jeopardizing the world economy? In our modern era where most (if not all) public servants bow down in idolatry at the altar of money, should we really feel secure in their assurances that they will notify us in time to give us a few weeks’ jump on the devastation? For all we know avian influenza could have gone pandemic last month and they’re sitting on it praying that they can make a few more bucks for themselves and their blue chip sponsors before all heck breaks loose. Just a thought.
Wolverine, even if they did give a few weeks notice, it wouldn’t be enough to prepare to the extent you need to. The stores will be overwhelmed and inventory replinishment would be limited to what could be brought in until the SHTF. Keep in mind, we import many food items that may in fact be held back in order to supply their own people.
It would be worse than hurricane supply shopping just hours before landfall. Prep now.
Public servants are human_they bow down to whatever anyone else bows down to_ So…we must be happy with the warning we’ve already been given. Although, we have a right to discuss and put extra pressure on…that’s what journo’s are for….(so its their fault. NO)-I feel that we(as individuals) will be given as much warning as their possibly can be…but that commerce could be a thorn! i.e. Airlines! So, maybe I do agree! Yeh- I’m scared too!
Anyone who expects the miracle of lead time is going to be “tragically wrong.”
You’ve gotten all the warning you are going to get. How explicit do they need to be?
This is PanFlu Week - the slogan is Be Informed. Get Prepared. Do it NOW.
So do it.
Wolverine, at least you understand. The worst thing is that anyine who is prepared is going to be regarded as a ‘threat’ by Government.
Wolverine, at least you understand. The worst thing is that anyone who is prepared is going to be regarded as a ‘threat’ by Government.
I doubt it will be anything as insidious as informed Powers-That-Be remaining silent for a few extra bucks. If they remain silent, it will be because — with the exception of a few islands of informed agencies — TPTB are as clueless as our neighbors and families.
It’s less a matter of greedy people getting in last licks until all heck breaks loose than it is of uninformed people, including those in governement and business, not believing all heck can or will break loose.
I thought they did warn us to prepare, maybe not for long enough time, but they did warn us. It’s all over the cdc website, the individual states websites, Leavitt has gone all over the United States warning us. Many local counties have warned us, mine says stock up for 30 days. The warnings have been posted, no one is listening.
So many “reassurances’ have been put out on the media, the public doesn’t have clear information.
“Vaccine distribution plans” aren’t worth the paper they are printed on for the unprepared public the first 6 to 9 months, ect, of a deadly pandemic. (and if it gets going, enough for 1% of the population a week, doesn’t sound like much of a vaccine pipeline to ration…)
This has been up for a year, but the local “health” guys panicked back in the day, and refuse to tell the locals to read it. Thinks they don’t Need to Know?
World Health Organization Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza
I would agree with you there. With the talk of vaccines, people seem reassured. I had a friend tell me that if there is a pandemic, “they” will come up with something. I said after Katrina, you are going to count on “them”? I don’t think so. I guess every government agency needs to be clear and united on this. However, I don’t think all the government agencies really believe that we could have a pandemic. They don’t all believe that it is a possiblitiy. Mixed messages, no united front. Not a believable situtation. No prepping.
I agree with the previous posters.
Are there any other questions?
“That pandemic, which was exceptional, is considered one of the deadliest disease events in human history. Subsequent pandemics were much milder, with an estimated 2 million deaths in 1957 and 1 million deaths in 1968.”
crfullmoon 8:03 - Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza.
1) “A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people,1 and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe — it simply occurred when the world’s population was smaller.” Preparing for the Next Pandemic…Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H. New England Journal of Medicine Volume 352: 1839–42 May 5, 2005.
2) “During and after the 1889–90 influenza pandemic - with the exception of 1918–19, the most severe influenza pandemic in the last three centuries - …” Page 261, The Great Influenza, John M. Barry. Please let us know how they respond to your question…it should be interesting considering the evidence is clear that their estimate is absolutely incorrect.
The question I would have is how and why did the WHO make the above statement and where does this leave there credibility as ‘a scientist’.
Secondly, they say in this article that they modelled the 2–7 million mortality estimate on the 1957 pandemic when in effect they modelled it after the 1968 pandemic…in my opinion the only true outlier in the distribution of pandemics in the past two centuries.
In addition, why would they spend the worlds meager regulatory medicine resources only on a solution that doesn’t work - antivirals, and a solution that, by their own admission, won’t work - vaccines.
It’s a funny world we live in!!
crfullmoon. Thanks. I had not seen this article…interesting fiction.
Tom DVM, the bolded, basic sentences would have been helpful to tell the public a year ago…
(been wanting to ask you; your, 10% pandemic deaths, 10% permanent sequelae in survivors, 10% collateral deaths - is that out of entire populace? What’s your best guess at atack rate? Wish we could do coffee…)
“Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza
14 October 2005
1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
4. All countries will be affected.
5. Widespread illness will occur.
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.
8. Economic and social disruption will be great.
9. Every country must be prepared.”
crfullmoon.
I agree on…”the bolded, basic sentences would have been helpful to tell the public a year ago…”…instead they provided unqualified and fragrantly incorrect spin…demonstrating, in my opinion, a significant lack of respect for their audience.
I still don’t think they fully appreciate the hole we find ourselves in today…I believe they are still gambling that in the end,it is not going to happen.
…and I also agree on …”Wish we could do coffee”
Thanks for the question. I think this is another area where the World Health Organization has ‘conveniently, got it wrong over the past few years…
If a novel pandemic virus is introduced, then by definition, 100% of the population has absolutely no immunity whatsoever to it. Under these conditions, to talk about 25 % attack rates is perplexing.
The only comparable to H5N1 in this instance would be diseases like Smallpox etc…and in these cases the attack rate is between 85 and 95%…however, it should be said that a significant percentage would not be infected until the later waves which may take up to a decade to pass.
The 1918 pandemic had one characteristic that saved many lives. The first wave was relatively mild and therefore a significant porportion of the population was already immune when the second wave started…
…the problem with this statement is that nature never repeats itself so the only sure thing is that this time it won’t be the same pattern…mild wave…virulent wave…less virulent wave.
If the first wave had been virulent in 1918, the results could have been even more disastrous.
Therefore, to answer your question, I believe the attack rate over a decade will come in at around 85–95% of the population which would mean my figures would pretty well be a percentage of the overall population…but it is only my opinion and I certainly don’t pretend to have all the answers about this ‘monster’.
Thanks, Tom DVM.
I value your field experience and “opinion” more than anyone’s I can uh, so to speak, swing a stick at on this side of the keyboard.
(Sigh. Ain’t living through “interesting times” of history interesting?…”1491″ all over again?)
With current levels of air and other travel, if pandemic starts, it will not give any more warning. Sure hope I’m wrong, but… not going to gamble lives on it.
Eccles – at 08:26
100% dead on.
As for talk by others on this and other threads of the government targeting preppers to steal their preps…what is the basis for this talk? Show me some facts, data, or even a reasoned, intelligent argument that the government will do this.
Yes, emminent domain and the greater good will require the government to seize private spaces for public use (arenas, hotels, etc.). It may require the government to divert available supplies that are in the pipeline. But frankly, I think speculation that the government is going to go house to house wilding looking for bags of wheat and cans of tomato soup are pretty ridiculous.
There will not be the available personnel. The risk of spreading infection among personnel will be too high. And it would require an orchestrated coordination that I think our government is fundamentally incapable of.
crfullmoon. Thanks.
My estimates would be in the range of ten million dead from H5N1 in the US and 1 Million in Canada…
…we all hope we are wrong and in the end the H5N1 fizzles out…but there is a big difference between our hoping it won’t happen and the World Health Organization telling the world that the maximum mortality from a worldwide pandemic would be 2–7 million persons…
…they might as well have said the losses would be between 2- 7 persons.
When I see numbers that say x million “ill” in state, I wonder how they think those can recover, and, how many the collateral deaths from system disruptuion will be. Sheesh.
Edna Mode, I suppose it might happen in various locations on a local, armed-but-unprepared “official level”, but I agree, there are bigger problems.
We have to get the public, and, various essential systems personnel aware and preparing.
…and if we beat H5N1, how many bullets can we dodge before we get hit…I am afraid this time…the odds are against us…
…and if not influenza…how about SARS or Nipah virus etc.
The bottom line is at this exact point in time…the future does not look good from a ‘emerging pathogen threats’…and time has demonstrated to us that our present technologies are woefully inadequate to deal with such a threat.
“In Netherlands/Germany in 2003, the highly pathogenic H7N7 influenza viruses that was lethal to poultry infected the eyes of more than 80 people and killed one person; H6 and H9 have spread from a wild aquatic bird reservoir to domestic poultry over the past 10 years. H9N2 viruses have also been associated with human infections in the mainland of China and Hong Kong. Avian influenza H10N7 seems to have crossed the species barrier from poultry to people for the first time. Hence, it is possible that the next influenza pandemic may not be due to H5N1.”
Klatu News Thread October 9 @ 18:00
It seems to me that if our government was going to give us enough time to prepare, it would have been a year ago. And we are still waiting. Some communities have been preparing for over a year. No, they are not going to give us enough time to prepare. We are more than likely on the down side of prepping time. It probably is too late now, even if they gave an announcement today.
Our government maintains that bird flu will be here in two years. Why do they keep making this statement? How do they know it will be two years? I keep coming across this.
sorry. the bump was me.
bump. I think their comment about bird flu within two years probably has to do with H5N1 in poultry and not an H5N1 pandemic in people.
I really wish they would clarify their statements. It sounds so misleading, given that they din’t state, bird or human.
Like I’ve said before - if CNN is announcing there is a pandemic, the last place you’ll find me is in line at Costco with 100′s of posssibley sick people. I’ll be holed up in my house, not going anywhere. That’s what being preparred is all about.
I think it will be web sites like the wiki and others that will give the powers that be a heads up and warning of the start of the pandemic.
Whether they choose to pass that info along, well, that is another topic.
If the government confiscated 100% of all preppers supplies, it wouldn’t make a dent in feeding the population of this country. One thing I won’t spend time worrying about. Pointless.
Eccles - You said it so well. I expect no additional warning whatsoever (unless it comes via the Flu Wiki ;).
I spoke with a public health officer from our county — she definitely was on the right page, but way, way behind. They are in the midst of “agency” meetings — so agencies are talking to one another, but very little is being communicated to the public. She (and another officer I spoke to last week) kept saying “it’s on our website” — as if some parent with kiddies to get off to school, a paycheck to earn and a lawn to mow would wake up in the morning and say “Gee, I think I’ll pause on my to -do list and see what’s on the county health page today!” Sheesh.
I also went to a school board meeting last night and passed out infomation packets. I kept my comments very brief (knowing the packages contained all the dynamite and didn’t need my yammering to pound in the point) - and, thanks to fluwiki, was able to answer the one question I received. The board members were VERY welcoming and thankful. They know pandemic flu is a possibility but hadn’t yet had their public health meetings (see above). There are six school districts in our county. Five more to go.
Most ominous was the public health officer saying the decision to close schools would be made by their department — in conjunction with other county health depts. Right. Let’s wait to get 39 Washington counties on the same page. All this gives me a new approach. I want school districts to implement “Wait and see” days, where they are closed but not waiting for public health (A “preemptive strike” as we Americans are so fond of doing these days). I think it may be possible to move the school boards to that. So, for my 2 cents, “They” will let us know if we are pushing their buttons to do so (ie., you have to know to tell them what to say).
Tom DVM, I just failed to change the mind of a small animal vet; sees no need to tell the populace; nothing anyone can do; they equated it to nuclear war, asteroid strike: fatalistic, sees no reason to tell anyone because any/all preparation would be totally useless.
I still think such people should Not be making descisions for entire populaces, since obviously, not all agree, once they have the information.
People who do care whether individuals survive, or, who have a higher tolerance factor to not go into denial nor panic, are still going to try and prepare, and, tell others so they at least have a heads-up.
Tom DVM - Thanks for the article in the New England Journal of Medicine. I sent this article to my husband who, although not a doctor, works with them in a health institution. And as you well know, doctors are more impressed with information from medical journals than anything else.
Olymom
I am interested in your school board meeting. Where did you get the information packets and did you do a “talk”?
Thanks Kate
History Lover. The New England Journal of Medicine article is probably the best on the subject I have read in the past five years…
…it has been made avaliable on the internet and is written so anyone can understand it…
…the comments by Dr. Webster, Dr. Nabarro and Dr. Osterholm in my opinion, are unprecedented…especially in the way they were layered to counter the spin (2–7 million bogus mortality claim) by the World Health Organization.
…and the reason I continue to mention this figure is because the study it was lifted from specifically said in the limitations that it should not be used in any way by regulators to estimate the losses from a pandemic…and yet even after the comments, they continued their campaign to smear Dr. Nabarro until the other scientists jumped in to assist.
…therefore, ethically, this one action by the WHO is the equivalent of plagerizing a Nobel prize…
…I do not take anything the World Health Organization says at face value…
…they have spent all their credibility. In my opinion they are morally bankrupt.
The warnings are out there. The problem is that most people rely more on the mainstream media outlets than on their own commonsense and research. They are waiting for someone else to do the thinking for them.
By the time reasonable individuals finish prepping for themselves and their areas of responsibility there won’t be time to force-feed the idea of prepping to those who weren’t willing to chew on the idea before.
Most may not be hearing prep for 12–18 months like many on fluwiki mention … but they are still refusing to prep for even the recommended 2 weeks or so.
What does that say? It is irresponsible of adults to assume that someone is going to come along and take care of them. Doubly irresponsible if they are the head of a household with children or frail elderly.
The reason why it is the law that mortgage companies won’t lend without proof of insurance is because it is known that unless they are forced to, most people wouldn’t carry insurance and the mortgage industry would be completely bankrupt in no time flat.
Kathy, did you just say 12–18mnths prep is what’s advised here? If so, I’m in trouble. What is the rationale for this? How can anyone store that much? I have reached the 3 month prep mark. Looks like I’ve got a ways to go still.
If there is no power…what are some of the best items to prep. Last week my family prepped comfort foods, and I was feeling good about myself. Not anymore. We have five small children, so this is extremely important to us. Any suggestions on what to prep for children besides the obvious.
They gave notice for Katrina.
Did that help ?
And that was an ISOLATED REGIONAL event.
We have already witnessed the politics involved sans Indonesia and Turkey.
If you do not prepare NOW, you are more than foolish.
If you wait until the “authorities” magically tell you to get ready, it will already be WAY too late for the modern JIT supply chain to fulfill your needs.
On the subject of confiscating personal preps.
There are some validated stories of this out of New Orleans.
Most “appropriations” were done by local law enforcement to directly support local law enforcement.
So yes Edna, there are valid stories out there.
However they are localized and small-scale.
Which, nevertheless, still sucks if you are the one the local Sheriff decides to confiscate from.
Rationale is (I think) that that is how long a new pandemic strain could be causing serious problems; more than one strain, or mutations that survivors would still be vulnerable to.
The US CBO macroeconomic report (which has too low attack rates and way-too-low cfr) told Sen. Frist, Dec 2005, they assume that, “In any given geographic region, each wave could last for three to five months, and a second wave could appear anywhere from one to three months after the first disappears”
and no one can predict how many “waves” there will be and how they will change. (I know I am not set for 12 to 18 months, but I know I can’t say I’d ever be really ready; just have to do what I can.)
Tom DVM - I am preparing a Select Bibliography of articles and sources on Bird Flu and am particularly interested in articles written by authoritative sources such as Dr. Osterholm, Michael Leavitt, etc. I’m going to give this bibliography to my husband (and anyone who wants a copy) to distribute to medical professionals. Therefore the more letters after the name, the better, particularly if they have an M and a D. I am perusing this website and the entire web, of course, for articles. They will be particularly useful if they are reprinted from a refereed journal (such as the NEJM). I haven’t found anything from JAMA, but I am still looking. If you have anything in your vault that hasn’t been mentioned here lately, please contact me at jerebishopfranco@aol.com. I would really appreciate it.
I agree with you about the WHO. HIstory is replete with morally bankrupt leaders.
My school board packet had the following: 1) letter to the school board 2) histogram from fluwiki/CDC showing H5N1 mortality high in young people 3) chart from 1918 that contrasts Philadelphia’s death rate to St. Louis (St. Louis closed schools, Philadelphia did not) from Goju’s work 4) article from Tuft’s university newsletter telling people to prepare and 5) an edited version of Monotreme’s Why there will be a severe pandemic.
I can be reached at cefprice@comcast.net I will email copies of what I used to anyone if you send me a request (please put me clear on your spam blocker site if you do this — my life is too short to mess with those — I am a techno-infant).
I received a call from the school board chair today. She’s “on board” — she’s worried and ready to be decisive. I couldn’t ask for anything more than that (and that’s not my kids’ district — but will go there tonight).
History Lover. /:0) You are looking at the world’s worst saver of important articles…I have saved a total of one article in the past two years and you already have it…I guess that is an indication of how good the Dr. Osterholm article actually is.
…the person you need to chase around flu wiki until you catch her…is anon 22. She will no doubt bury you with a full bibliography of articles.
Thanks for all of your contributions to flu wiki.
Wolverine re kid preps — feel free to email me and I will be glad to help in so far as I can. libby_alex at hotmail dot com.
Wolverine – at 17:42
there is a huge range of recommendations on this board. The 12 - 18 months is on the long end of the stick … but you will find people that have years worth of supplies in one form or another.
Me … I’m approaching 5 to 6 months. If I could get 12 months I would be relatively secure. Heck, I’ll just rotate it through the regular menues for the family like I already do. But it is building it up that far for a family of 7 that is time consuming, dollar consuming, and space consuming. <grin>
Sure they will give us notice. Just like they gave the gulf coast notice. All those studies and experts over the years preceeding that said whooooaaaa, you’re all gonna get wet. Well, I think we’ve all had a couple studies and a few experts tell us that we’re gonna get overwhelmed and disrupted big time by the next pandemic. Feel better now? Cable news won’t start covering it until they have some good video feeds from the hospital front doors or the ransacked stores. Thats all the warning I’m counting on. Way too much bad politics going on right now for any sane proactive federal effort.
Will They Really Give Us Notice in Time to Prepare
the answer is yes. After all we already have been told to prepare. We already have notice. It is just most people ignore the warning.
Yes. We had our warning already. I have been passing this on to friends and family, so they have no justification if things get bad.
And may God have mercy on any pirate, with or without a badge, who tries to take my property. In situations like this, I don’t deal in mercy, I deal in lead.
You want my preps? Molon Labe!
LOL- PIRATES BEWARE!!!
We will have little warning. It will be too late to prep properly. That is why everyone must start now. Once you have the area inside your home prepped… then you move to prep the outside - all the other homes around you…. and then all the homes around them… and so on. Then we have no pirates to load lead in.
Checking in with the Wikie every day will be the best notice you’ll have.
There are enough people here, with ears to the ground, and in all locations, that when anything breaks loose we will know.
We’ve probably got better coverage than WHO.
Tom DVM – at 11:24 “History Lover. The New England Journal of Medicine article is probably the best on the subject I have read in the past five years… …it has been made avaliable on the internet and is written so anyone can understand it…”
Tom I have done a search, and have not been able to find that article. Would by chance do you have the link and could you post it here. Thanks always for your insight into all of this subject.
Kathy in FL – at 23:11
I do understand. There are days when I’m just like…wow…this is a Herculean task. I find myself worrying about family and friends who just aren’t “getting it” inspite of my impassioned debates and wondering if I’ll have enough for them if they come knocking. Then there’s the question of charity. How many can you help without jeopardizing your own family’s chances? Will prepping ever yeild enough to really get us through? These things keep me up at night. That and the fact that the UPS guy hates me <LOL>.
Wolverine – at 17:42
I’m prepping for a family of 6, and we are almost to the 12 months mark. I’m CarreyInVa on yahoo messenger if ya wanna chat.
Gary Near Death Valley -this might be the article
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839
Dr.Osterholm, giving warning.
A question elsewhere asked why there was not consistent ongoing loud comment from “experts” other than the coined “prepare as best you can”. (Personally I feel there have been several warnings).
What are your thoughts on this theory - considering even those here (non-professed experts)have said the grid will not hold with a severe pandemic, what if the “experts” feel certain it will be severe if (but they really think when) it happens, and thus they feel the grid will go down, and thus too much doom and gloom than can possibly be dealt with (no vaccine in time, not enough tamiflu, no way to get water & food to masses), so since there is no way to know when it will start (but they may think it is immenent?) why ruin everyone’s lives in the present when nothing can be done on a big enough scale (too much mass inertia & government red tape to be overcome)in time to make a difference? Not so much “not telling us the truth of how they feel” as giving in to what they feel is inevitable? Thus there would be no “warning”, only response of the mass news media once hysteria begins.
Thank goodness for the eyes and ears here.
Ref Osterholm’s interview linked above by crfullmoon, how much more clear could the situation be? I can not imagine the frustration of those experts we want to continue to hear from who understand all this but see so very little being done in response to the obvious.
Ok, heres the thing. Years before Katrina all kinds of experts were saying levys aren’t going to hold. National Geographic, Popular Science, Scientific American, all kinds of publications had detailed articles months/years before hand about how dangerous the situation was-so much so that little ole homemaker me, with no science/engineering background, four states away, understood it and I said to dh when Katrina first hit, “Those levys are not gonna hold” and he agreed. We were appalled when, a couple of days later, everythings under water, Government officials get up and say, “We had no warning, there was no way anyone could tell the levys would break” We were further appalled by how the situation was handled in the following days-how it is still being handled.
For me, KAtrina is all the warning I need. Government is not going to do a damn thing. There will be no Government flu warning. Government is NOT going to help us, in fact they have said, clearly, you are own your own.
Last fall, NAtional Geographic ran an excellent article on the “Coming Flu Pandemic”.
read the writing on the wall, (pages, whatever….)
Bird Guano at 17:52 -
Although I don’t worry about it, what you say hits close to home. My SIL is the court clerk in the very small town that we live 3 miles from. If I told her of our preps, I have no doubt the info would eventually be shared with her law enforcement co-workers and there you go. So even the remote chance that small-town law officers would know of our supplies keeps me mum on the subject.
“We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.” Ayn Rand
LEG, “so since there is no way to know when it will start (but they may think it is immenent?) why ruin everyone’s lives in the present when nothing can be done on a big enough scale (too much mass inertia & government red tape to be overcome)in time to make a difference? Not so much “not telling us the truth of how they feel” as giving in to what they feel is inevitable? “
I don’t agree ethically that “they” can make that choice for everyone, (and I have met people in and out of authority with the exact attitude/coping mechanism, but, some others do want to know and do want to try and have their loved ones and community survive) and it is perhaps hubris or oversimplification to decide there is nothing that can be done that would make enough of a difference to bother making any preparations.
Suffering through consequences in real time sometimes changes peoples’ minds too late to take proper actions;
they find there is a lot to live through between the incorrect extremes of, “Hope it won’t happen” and, “If it’s that bad it will just kill us and we won’t be there to deal with it.”
crfullmoon. Thanks!!
That is the article that I was talking about.
I think there is a lesson in this for many ‘experts’. If you notice, Dr. Osterholm was writing for other doctors, a narrow segment of the population, but anyone can read this journal article and clearly understand it.
In other words…big words just make you look small if they are used to confuse of impress your reader!! /:0)
Crfullmoon at 8:05: Thanks for supplying the article in total. Did anyone else notice in the paragraph that begins, “Today,public health experts” (midway in article he lists reasons why 5 to 1 is a concern—his last reason is “The existence in Asia of a genetic reassortment lab!”
It sounds like he thinks H5N1 is an escaped convict—I mean escaped lab project—just like Monotreme has believed as a possibility, but Osterholm lists it as a reason to be worried. Do we know the name of this lab and where it’s located??????????
Tom DVM - Thanks anyway. I have done an internet source and found a number of articles in scholarly journals that I can cite. Still haven’t found JAMA, of course. And thanks for the compliment, but I do very little in comparison to others.