The Govt and various agencies are advising EVERYBODY to store 2 weeks worth of FOOD & WATER. Dr Webster and many other rational experts are saying 1–3 months. How long are you prepping for?
My problem with all this is that PDF won’t be like Katrina - massive devastation in a single area where national relief efforts could (eventually) be focused. Because of air travel, PDF will sweep across the US in a matter of days to maybe a week. With a 30% infection rate some 90 million people will be very sick for about the same time as it takes PDF to go national. As noted in http://tinyurl.com/nmy9h and other places, many on FluWikie, even with “only” a 2% death rate there are no near enough hospital beds, ventilators, Tamiflu, etc. for the people who die let alone the 10–20% (?) of the 90 million who come close to dying. If the death rate is a bit higher, say 5–10% (no where near close to H5N1’s current killing power) and the already horrific situation becomes nearly unimaginable.
I can see storing food - who wants to be going to the grocery store (assumming it has any food left after the panic hoarding sets in) with PDF raging, but water?
If we were simply going to be without SAFE drinking water coming out of your tap, one would think the emphasis would be on proper procedures to treat suspect water rather than actually storing water.
Saying to store water implies that there is no water available. While that in itself is bad enough, it also implies something far more serious. It also implies that there is no electricity.
So in affect, is what the Govt and other experts saying is that there is some distinct possibility that large portions of the US could be without food, water, and electricity for 2 weeks or longer? Imagine that happening in your city or NY, Chicago, LA etc. Assumming so, doesn’t that imply a whole new set of problems that having 2 weeks of food and water will not protect you from?
Or are we simply going to be without 2 ply Charmin TP for extended periods of time and will have to make due with 1 ply prison grade TP?
The answer to that question has a profound impact on one’s prepping.
pfwag—
It’s always a good idea to have a bit of water at the ready — for water main breaks, your sewer backing up, loss of electricity at the water plant for a while, etc. Doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the world.
I think the idea is, every little bit helps. No one thing, no one “prep” will save everyone from everything, but every little bit, here and there, will give people a few more options, and cumulatively, could make a world of difference.
I haven’t checked my prepes, but they would suffice for a month, and if I kept what I put aside for others longer. I don’t think it is just avian flu that the Govt is trying to get people on alert for, I think its an amorphous fear. Peak oil. the middle East problem, terrorism, climate change. Bush might pooh pooh some of this, but it feels like there is a little bit of a groundswell of concerns in general. Not specific, general.It is manifesting in the heat waves we are getting, people see that things Might change in their lifetime. I remember a few years ago when my youngest son visited, and we went to see friends who had retired to a very attractive place that had nursing facilities attatched. The woman had a series of strokes after they got there. As we left my son said. “Mom, when I’m old there won’t be anything like this available. It’s all going to change, and not for the better.” I thought he was right then, and that was six years ago.
ACM - I am an ex-boyscout and still believe in being prepared. There is, however, a big difference between preparing for a water line break and being without water for 2 weeks. If the local utility company had to replace a major line and shut off the water for two weeks (hardly likely, 2–3 days maybe) they would have a water truck on the corner. The ISSUE is why is the GOVT telling the entire nation to be prepared for extended water outages and what are the implications of needing all that water?
Lily - and if your neighbors and all the have-nots in the neighboring city are without for 2 weeks to a month? How many people in the cities are storing food and water? One can only go for about 3 days without water. Well before 2 weeks is up they will want your food.
With higher oil prices we will eventually engineer our way out energy shortages through the development of alternative energy sources and the high oil prices will also spur even more supplies of oil. We have more oil in oil shale just in Colorado than the entire Middle east has oil. Heat waves come and go and the real data says we are not having global warming. While there are some indications that the oceans are warming it could not be caused by atmospheric heating. In fact it is the oceans that will heat the atmosphere. Besides, the alternative is global cooling and an ice age (which some credible people are predicting - triggered by the ocean heating BTW)
Personally, I am more concerned about the Islamists getting hold of a nuke than I am of BF. I can prep for BF but being only 12 miles outside of Denver I can not (realistically) prepare for Denver going up in a mushroom cloud. Bush at least recognizes we are at war while most of his more vitriolic critics are so blinded by irrational hatred that they have their head up thier arse. However, Bush and most people who at least recognize there is a problem have a problem themselves in that they do not want to acknowledge or recognize that the enemy is not Muslim extremists but Islam itself. The war has been going on for over 1000 years.
pfwag, my issue is: how do I prepare for the worst AND best case scenario? It’s a precarious balancing act. I do think there is a potential for the worst case, but… I’m not sure. So preparing for the worst case would in some ways be very foolish — such as cashing out a retirement plan at a huge penalty. And preparing only for the best case leaves so much to chance.
I agree with you; reading between the lines of the offical advice is more important than what it actually _says_.
So what I’ve done is this: canned and stockpiled for about 4 months of food, a couple months longer if we’re careful. We’ve lined up investment assets to turn into rural property. (Vacation land-best case — hunting land— worst case.)We live close to a river, so treating rather than getting water is more our issue. I’ve gathered a lot of “camping” gear — for indoor camping if necessary. I’ve been very sobered by recent civil unrest events, so we also purchased a shotgun — for worst-case hunting and personal protection. This purchase would have been unthinkable just a year ago.
pfwag,
This is a politics free zone, please.
I have reached my personal limits of prepping, next would be public communication, but the media education has not been enough yet to succeed. I have spoken to the people from the water utility, the power co, the school board and the health dept. but I find I’m in a black hole of ignorance, unlike some of the communities I read about. I can go for a couple of months without power, with a generator for the well, gas stove, wood stove, and food for 4 months for a family of four. I’m not going to prep for an even worst scenario, where modern society collapses and we all need to go back to 18th century lifestyle and farming. That’s too much for a very small chance and I’ll deal with it if it happens. If only the most cunning, cannibal predators survive, then that just won’t be me. My main motivation is if a Cytokine Storm-type pandemic happens, with a high death rate among young people, I want to try to protect my teenagers from exposure. I don’t think there’s anything weird about that, nor do I think it’s pointless to try. It’s not selfish either. We need more people to store supplies in our communities, instead of arguing against it. For example the more people who have a generator to bring up water from a well, the better off the community will be, in a disaster.
Power outages will become increasingly common as the system ages and old transformers blow. The power company is not going to put money out for new lines and transformers that aren’t broken; they will just wait to replace them after they fail. I’ve seen this nearby, (firey transformers and power outages in town) and it doesn’t make the news. Even with the more dramamtice news of long power outages in cities, I don’t think people really think it will happen to them. If it wasn’t for the bird flu news I would be one of them, but now I am ready for a lot of things.
The next pandemic will shake the fabric of modern society in a grand experiment for the electrically-depended life we have woven. Afterwards, I think people will be forever more aware, of needing to have back up self-suffiency in place and we will never be this ignorant again.
Northstar at 14:12
You are on the right track.
Rural property - secluded but not isolated. Independent water source(s) - such as your nearby river. Plus your own well(s).
But , IMO, everyone needs to walk the walk - don’t talk the talk.
Use those “lined up” asssets and get that developed rural property. Do it now. Pool assets with others if you must.
Division of Labor goes a long way.
Northstar - you make some sense. You might want to establish a perimeter alarm system though so you don’t have to try to stay up all night watching in the event any have-nots want what you have. And it may be prudent to have a little more protective reach. That is where the logic of the bad scenarios playing out is taking me.
BTW-I have available surface water too and am just completing an in-depth research report on water. The subtitle is “Everything you ever wanted or at least need to know about water so that you will never be without safe drinking water” It is currently about 60 pages. I did it so I know but am sharing it with everybody. Free and I am not selling anything. Send me an e-mail if you want a copy pfwag@lycos.com I should have it finished in a few days. I am currently waiting for some feedback from some water experts on a couple of issues (like the proper way to turn swimming pool water into drinking water). The report is full of specific solutions with links. Everything from best ways to treat and store water to solar stills and using a 2L bottle for solar pasteurization to building a mini-water treatment plant.
This is very hard to follow, a second thread very similar to another active one.
I suggest we close this and post to the other thread “What Are We Realy Preparing For”
The thing is Pwag that it is not just one fear out there. I won’t go into my ideas because this site has tried to remain non political, with good reason. I think its just as well that the fears are amorphous and vague in the general public. Life has to go on. We had a multi million dollar face lift on an old hotel tavern in our town. Business is booming, streets for blocks around lined with cars, parking lot full. I had watched the metamorphasis into a lavish place. It means more immigrant workers and well as money in the pockets of the restaurant owner. I don’t know what is good and what is bad. Houses are not selling around that immediate restaurant for reasons I won’t go into. Things are changing/ No matter what happens I enjoy life, but I feel uneasy about a lot of things beside bird flu. If one closes ones eyes, things will still alter, and not for the better. It doesn’t stop me from the simple pleasures of existance. I am aware of what you are saying,as it becomes more obvious and strident. I have my few preps and will never increase them. If someone feels a sense of control in prepping I am all for it. I don’t feel the imperative need to do anything more than I have.As for my neighbors, I gave them the government handouts on minimal preps, and they are on their own.
ANON-YYZ – at 14:41 --- I was thinking along those same lines…Mods?
I think the gist of the other thread is “Why are you even bothering to prep when the world is going to hell in a handbasket?”
This one started off asking how long are you planning to prep for and what type of scenario —is water really needed?
That other thread was probably getting too esoteric so somebody started this one to try to answer the question that the other title hinted at but never delivered on. Now this one is getting fruity too.
pfwag:
“The ISSUE is why is the GOVT telling the entire nation to be prepared for extended water outages and what are the implications of needing all that water?”
I’m not quite understanding your question here — is your point that the government isn’t saying to store enough water or is saying to store too much?
I think in general, if you tell people the government wants you to store 2 weeks of water,most will say “That’s crazy” but then, maybe, will store the three days worth that seemed crazy a year or so ago. That is, the 2 weeks recommendation suddenly puts three days in perspective and makes it seem sensible.
Also, in the event of a pandemic, regular mishaps can still occur. You could have a town severly suffering from illness, even “moderate” pandemic such as 1968, and then also have a water main break or other regular power outage, not at all related to illness or people not able to come in for work. Still, what used to be fixable in a day or 2 or 3, may now take more like a week.
Those are just a few thoughts. I can tell you that reading the pandemicflu.gov site with its recommendation to store 2 weeks worth of WATER did in fact get my attention, it might not be enough for a real disaster but it would be 2 weeks more worth of water than I would otherwise have had. (But then, in the space of a few short flu-wikie filled months, this average normal houswife/mom with no survivalist tendencies whatsoever has gone from having only the water in her Brita Jug on hand to having 2 weeks worth of water, a backup 55-gallon rainbarrel, and a water filter PLUS taprs for collecting rainwater. And she thinks this is normal behavior. So you can’t go by me.) (-:
Wanted to get that in before the thread was closed….
Bronco Bill – at 14:45
It didn’t help when the first post included a commercial link, plus politics and religion gallore, which don’t belong to this forum, AFAIK.
Having done my whole career in the fire service, and having been on a number of diasters (also as a child going thru some), I learned early on the importance of maintaining a supply of emergency items. While in the fire department I taught preparation to the people of my fire district, and always stressed that in case of a rather area wide diaster (earthquake, nuke accident or war, floods, etc now including bird flu), that people should be able to take care of their own needs for a minimum of two weeks.
Now with the possibility of a pandemic coming to the area near you, the preparations are still vitally important but in a different sense. Not only should one have the ability to maintain themselves, but now comes the problem of large number of workers not being able to work the supply lines etc. Not usually a problem even in earthquakes and floods as they still function, although slower. But in a flu pandemic the trucking system may be comprised across the country, and if you happen to be in an area that is not on a main route, re-supplies may be real slow.
I was lucky enough also to have parents that stressed the use of preparations as they had gone thru the depression and they knew first hand what happened in slow economies and such and during WW2. I do preparations and have done for some time, have lots of spare water about 1000 gallons, plus a hand pump for the well, and could stay on the property for at least 2 years without leaving. And the wife also was into prepping when we married the month I retired from the fire service so we have seen eye to eye on these things.
The hardest part for us will be any phone calls that bring sad news about relatives and friends a thousand miles away, getting the flu and not making it while we are SIPed in place in the desert. To us that is the most difficult part.
I must have missed the “politics and religion gallore” in the first post. ???
OKbirdwatcher – at 15:55
Sorry, should have said first postER. Please check
pfwag – at 14:09
pfwag – at 14:09
Your points about global warming. Here’s a CBS 60 Minutes expose of government Rewriting the Science. I don’t want to get into a long discussion, as it is off-topic, but I think we should have a little balance here:
ANON-YYZ at 16:05 -
Got it.
I started prepping for pandemic flu, but quickly realized that the food, water, etc could be useful for many different possible disasters or disruptions.
Just to name one - the recent storms around St Louis. Who would have thought to fill their gas tanks before the storm? Some relatives got stranded there for a couple of days because there was no power for the gas pumps, stores or restaurants. Lots of people were without power for a week, although this affected a relatively small area. All the crews were available, and they could call in help from unaffected areas.
Your preps may come in handy when you least expect it, and for reasons you never would have imagined. For me, the flu has been a wakeup call. The infrastructure is fragile, and could be disrupted by many things. The disruption may or may not last long, but why go hungry or thirsty if you can plan ahead a little bit.
We just did a brief 2.5 day stint with no power - we had a heat wave but our transformer got fried. Power company was overwhelmed with heat-related calls (half of Stamford CT went out) and that was with full, healthy crews. Totally unexpected so we were not prepared. For us no power means no water since we have a well. Hand-pumps are not viable as it is a very deep well. We quickly drained our tank despite telling the kids not to flush, etc.it happened before we knew it. And because the outage was limited, we went out to eat a lot so I wasn’t even washing a lot of dishes. If this was the real thing water would have quickly become a problem. We have probably 4 weeks worth of drinking water (bottled)but now I will fill up water for washing, etc. It’s hard mentally to wash dishes in bottled water! Our neighbors have a pond but it’s pretty scuzzy. I’ve bought a good filter if we need to go that route. I’m also looking into rain barrels as another source.
I started this thread with a non-political focus and would like it to stay that way. I will, however respond to other inserted political comments for “balance.” The MODs should note that first. PDF may not have the power to require the whole nation to have 2 weeks of food and water stored but a few terrorists taking out the main power distribution grid could. I could tell you how it could be done if you want to risk it. Last I checked the neither the Swedes or Buddist were running around blowing up Americans and neither group is rallying in the streets chanting “death to America.” If recognizing that is politics then so be it. Prepping may be required as a result of the actions of our sworn enemy more than for PDF. Has anybody considered that just maybe that is the real reason why the Govt wants everybody to prep for 2 weeks and PDF is just an excuse?
Anyway, my original point is the official US Govt is advising EVERYBODY to have 2 weeks worth of food and water on hand. Not 3 days for a local emergency but 2 weeks. Many experts are advising longer, much longer and many preppers on Flu Wikie have that much or more.
The questions are why?
Why is the GOVT advising everybody to have 2 WEEKS? WHY are FluWikkie preppers going past that, in some cases well past?
Everybody pretty much acknowledges that the vast majority of people won’t even have 3 days worth let alone two weeks. Half my family and most of my neighbors already think I am a nutcase for even trying to warn, urge, and inform them.
So, if one of the bad PDF scenarios occurs, just what does everyody actually think is going to happen? Especially for the vast unprepared majority of the population when they are without food, water, and electricity for a week or two?
That leads me back to the start: What SCENARIO are you prepping for? And why?
Thinking about that changed my focus.
We’re prepping for a variety of reasons, BF being one of them and having seen what happened last year during hurricane season being another.
pfwag: As far as your thinking regarding governmental motives (the 2 week mantra) you are probably closer to the truth than not.
pfwag – at 22:56
There may be several reasons the government urges preparation for 2-weeks, not 2-months or 2-years:
1. the supply chain won’t take any increase in demand beyond a request of 2 weeks
2. if the bar is set higher than 2 weeks, many will consider it to be unachievable and therefore won’t even try
3. the law of diminishing returns takes over if the goal post is set higher than 2 weeks
Shanghai just completed another vast bomb shelter under their city that could accomodate thousands for a couple of weeks. There are many such facilities in China that have been built and kept up through the decades.
I do believe that pfwag has hit upon something here. I would wager that at least equal motivation for the preparedness push is due to national security as to the threat of panflu. We do not know the half of what goes on out there in regards to well-documented, perceived threats.
Sad to say, the bogeyman is real, and his thinking is totally alien to our western ways of thought.
The current administration is “riding this horse” for dual reasons.
Medical Maven – at 23:53
I really hope that we are more productive with panflu talk than with war talk but it seems to stay here.
So I googled “Shanghai bomb shelter” and found your story on freerepublic.com which looks like a necon site. We all have to decide for ourselves how credible is that line of thinking.
Can we move back to bird flu scenarios?
I’ve always prepped because it seemed sensible to have on hand things you might need. Growing up in hurricane country teaches you a few things.
Last year, I would have said I was prepping for H5N1. Now, I say there are so many things going wrong in the world that any of a number of them could make having the things we’ve stockpiled a good idea.
I wouldn’t put nefarious motives past the government, and I’m pretty sure they are considering contingencies that may not have occurred to the rest of us. They do indeed know many things of which we are ignorant. I think it may even be that they don’t know exactly why they say to have two weeks of water on hand. It doesn’t seem like a bad idea, regardless of what may happen.
I think their estimates are too conservative. As of last week, we have stored bottled water to last the three of us for three months, and the dogs, too. After that, we have an Aquarain filter. We have food for the best part of a year - something has prompted me to finish up what I’d planned to do, and so I’ve gotten in 20 various #10 cans of freeze dried/dehydrated food in the past week, with 30 pounds of dried fruit due in on Monday. We got our case of cheese from Internet Grocer last week, and a couple of 5 pound bags of nuts, as well as a new tortilla press and 20 pounds of corn and 20 pounds of flour tortilla mixes. Those were my last minute items, and the fact that I felt compelled to complete my list makes me wonder if my subconscious knows something I wish it would impart to the rest of my mind.
Anon-YYZ at 00:16: My memory is very good. I believe I saw that story on a Reuters feed more than a couple of weeks ago. I really don’t discriminate among news sources. I try to cover all bases except for the far ends, either extreme. And I don’t use jargon (neocons). The world is what it is. It is more complicated than single-source motivations for preparedness plans. And our immediate or near-term survival has nothing to do with any coming midterm election. It is way past that. Goodnight.
Medical Maven – at 00:27
Sorry if I offended you. The “Shanghai bomb shelter’ thread I read on freerepublic.com led to a talk about ‘they dig holes, we’ll shoot them down’ alluding to missile defense. I thought it was a pitch to get more defense funding, may be a defense contractor behind this.
In any case, I think we can read too much into the government’s motives in urging preparation for 2 weeks. What is important is we help each other prepare, regardless of motivation. Good night.
My prepping is multi-scenario, and multi-pronged:
If there’s power and clean, drinkable tapwater, I have food preps available to tide me over in case of quarantine, pandemic, grocery shelves not fully stocked for any number of reasons.
If there’s not good drinking water available, I have some stored, some capability to purify & filter either impure tapwater or river/stream water or collected rainwater.
If there’s no power, I have some (and am exploring more) alternative sources of heat in winter, cooking, etc. Could be intermittent power also, that’ll make life difficult if the refrig/freezer off and on.
Any of these things can happen under many different scenarios. One possibility is that several outages occur over a one or two year period, without time to fully recover in between. For instance, waves of BF pandemic could extend the duration of the need for preps: a short first wave interrupts the world as we know it, but it ends. How long will it take to get everything back to pre-pandemic supply levels? Very likely some aspects of life will not bounce back immediately (think grocery store with partially stocked shelves). I don’t know which things would be missing so I’m stocking just about everything I can think of. Then could be another wave, and a break, and possibly a third wave, etc. The ‘two weeks’ or ‘three months’ or “one year” of preparedness might not be a continuous outage. It might be spread over a longer duration with partial normalcy in between, but maybe Honeyman’s is out of stock of what you’d like to replenish (either because they don’t have it, or because everyone else wants it too, now).
There are many possible sources of disruption, too many to list out. Like many here, I’m not including teotwawki in may plans; if *everything* is completely and permanently re-arranged, that’s out of scope of my planning. I’m upgrading my tools and knowledge base, and figuring out how I want to live, going forward, in uncertain times.
I took some time off from BF prepping and did something really important - went to see Pirates of the Caribean with my wife.
Back to scenarios:
blackbird: best argument I’ve heard so far for extended prepping. Besides stuff not being available there could be rationing.
anon-YYZ: have you, or anybody, seen any data on how the general populace is taking the 2 week recommendation?
So basically, if PDF goes really bad the only people left will be the serious preppers, farmers, and Mormons (who were serious preppers long before BF)?
I still think there is something fishey about official Govt recommendations to store TWO weeks of water.
And I think we may not be comprehending the scenario that will be playing out if the general populace is without food, water, and electricity for two weeks.
But it is way past my bedtime to be thinking on such things.
pfwag-
just my tiny little corner of the world --- no one I talk to is interested in “prepping for bird flu”. But many have started keeping a little more food in the pantry. And even more have started saving a little water. It’s a start.
As for the scecarios is people are without water and electricity for 2 weeks — I’ve seen them on this site over and over. They are grim. No water means certain death within a week of course and total mayhem. No electricity would mean no water within a short period of time. No food? People say the hungry would stream out of the cities and start knocking down doors, which is why all the threads about self defense and how to hide your preps in underground bunkers.
They probably would also be trying to reach the AMISH farmers, I would imagine — your regular farmers would also be up a creek in short order if there was no gasoline to powere their equipment.
Pretty much I can’t even begin to imagine such a scenario which is why I’m not preparing for a total breakdown of society. Mild disruption is giving me enough headaches.
And, it is why I think, even if someone in the goevrnment has absolute knowledge that we are facing the wors case scanarions (I don’t velieve that for a minute) it still makes sense to give the public advice in nice, small, manageable chunks that they (we) can handle emotionally. Store a little water just in case. And some canned foods. At least that I can do, and then can sleep at night.
IMHO everybody should have some food-grade storage containers set aside to store water (either for tap water between water outages or to collect rainwater). These can be used plastic buckets, used plastic barrels, or new containers. You’ll always find other uses for the plastic buckets, and you can get them free from bakeries. I live in the desert southwest, and we’re having one of the wettest monsoons I remember (after 7 months of almost no precipitation). I could have filled up 5 55-gal drums by now just from collecting rainwater in a 12×17 tarp, and my part of town has only gotten the fringes of the storms. Water from the roof would have filled up many more barrels. But if you don’t have the surge storage set up, the water just runs off the roof and down the street. Harvested rainwater might be the only water available to irrigate a garden, even if there’s tap water for drinking.
The West has wierd water laws. Usually it’s legal to collect it as it falls from the sky or comes off your roof, but once it hits the ground it’s considered surface water and somebody else already has rights to it.
pfwag – at 03:37
What happens if the government announces tomorrow that every one should prepare with 3 months not 2 weeks of water and food?
My best guesses are:
1. some will panic and empty the shelves at your local grocery. It becomes news at 6 o’clock and there will be accusations of fear mongering and irresponsibility.
2. others who are more inclined to prep will say I won’t be able to do it. The outcome is zero prep for these folks who would otherwise stock up for 2 weeks.
I agree in a serious pandemic, 2 weeks won’t be enough. But it will reduce the chaos at the peak of the outbreak. It is not a question of absolutes. It is a question of partial mitigation. I can’t draw any conclusion that ‘2 weeks’ means the government anticipates a 2-week event.
I wouldn’t go on a wild chase about what other motives the government may have. Every person will have his/her own pet conspiracy theory. It won’t help our understanding.
Anon-YYZ-
Realize that even at the 2 week prep level, if everyone suddenly decided to become compliant, there would be no way to support the demand. If we ignore the food panic scenario where everyone troops down to the store and has fist fights in the aisles and just have everyone buy one extra day’s worth of stuff every week, we would suddenly have a surge demand of 14% increase which lasts for 3–4 months. I suspect even that level would destabilize the system, and it would not be able to keep up with the demand.
Eccles at 11:29: I am always amazed when I see how little there as I add to the stockpile for my family and/or “essential workers”. Our technological pyramid will be severely testing, and it will fail, no ifs, ands, or buts. You can’t sugarcoat it.
Medical Maven- We were shopping this week, and when I grabbed our weekly amount of 3 cans of Swanson Chicken (large can) from the shelf, I counted up that there were only 13 left. That wouldn’t even make one prep run for one person once.
United States population in 1918 was 100 million. Today it is 300 million. Population densities along the coasts range from 750 per square mile to 1,000 per square mile. Sheer panic will ensue with even a mild pandemic when they see the state of our supply lines. I think that we can say that this is a certainty whatever the severity of the next panflu. What government propaganda could prevent the urge to clean out the shelves? Rumors that the panflu could get worse (even if that is not the case this time) would run like wildfire. Everybody would be googling and landing here and elsewhere and seeing the scenarios, all of them. They would have no adjustment reaction period, just blind rushing about.
Just yelling “fire” will take down a theater.
On the other hand, there are a whole bunch of fast food restaurants on every corner block in every city of any size and in every strip mall in every town of any size, and each and every one of them is owned by someone who wants to not go out of business, and each one is used to supplying a good bit of food to the public. And they all have storerooms, and warehouses which supply them. I bet it wouldn’t take too much convincing for them to sell some of their frozen chicken, frozen beef patties, and so on.
And while we do have a “just in time” economy — we don’t, I believe, have a “just in time HARVEST”. The grains we are eating now, in the form of our bread, our cereals, and so on, were harvested last year, and were stored somewhere while waiting to be prcessed into our food. Surely, some of those warehouses could be utilized as well, in the event of out and out panic? Open the doors, truckers work overtime, to get more food to the populace?
I don’t know much about food distribution. But I do know people don’t grow and harvest wheat every week. It is stored somewhere.
Eccles - do you think that may be a reason why they started so early?
ACM- what do you suppose will happen to grain crops over the next few years with a few hundred million (?) dead birds. I have heard that the common understanding of the phrase “eating like a bird” is wrong. Evidently birds eat a lot. A lot of bugs that would otherwise be eating grain. And bugs have prodiguous numbers of offspring.
My husband and I happened upon a huge grain elevator in Texas actually they have about 4.It made me wonder about grain E. so I got on the net and started reading about them saw lots of picture of them even the inside. But the thing that caught my attention was, the sites told what grains they stored and where they shipped it. Most of it was going over- seas. I would guess that some have long term contracts, if we have low crop yeild it will still go to the contracts. Makes me think we are on thin ice. As a kid in Florida I still remember empty grocery stores during the Cuban MC. I was about 15, it made quite an impression on me. My mother always had lots of food in the house, she was about 15 during the depression, so we did fine at the time. So if its BF or a nitwit with a bomb or a storm I am ready and adding everyday.
We have only 15 days of food per person in The United States at any given time, and this includes unprocessed grains stored in terminal elevators. For food such as we usually consume the figure is 3 days per person. On a dollar value basis The United States recently begin importing more food than it exports.
Within a year there will be enough ethanol plants in Iowa to consume every grain of corn grown in that state. And for Minnesota there will be enough ethanol plants in that state to consume two-thirds of the corn grown there.
Every time I go shopping at Aldi’s and see the stacks and stacks of canned goods and the 80 cubic foot rice display I can’t help but think what the store would look like after just a couple hours of panic buying. It seems like an incredible amount of food until people start carrying it out like ants at a picnic.
When I look at the food I have stored at home I think about how relatively inexpensive it is to purchase. I also usually have a gut feeling that I need to get as much as possible from the store to my house while I have time. I haven’t ever felt this strongly that something really devastating was going to happen.
Medical Maven, I posted this article earlier today on the Solar and Alternative Energy thread, but it goes right along with your post at 16:08. This article deals with the ramifications of countries increasing their dependence on biodiesel rather than petroleum as an energy source. Seems everything is inter-connected…
BRITAIN faces soaring food prices, a shortage of staple foods and declining public health if the Government pushes ahead with plans to promote the use of biofuels, the UK’s biggest food producer has given warning.
Huge efforts are being made to promote biodiesel amid concern over the rising cost of oil and reliance on the Middle East for supplies. The European Commission wants to increase the proportion of biofuel used in road transport from current levels of 0.8 per cent to 5.75 per cent by 2010.
However, Alan Jope, Unilever vice-president, fears that the rush to convert food crops into transport fuel will have unintended consequences. He said: “The scale is dramatic. To meet current EU quotas would require between 50 and 80 per cent of rapeseed production. Ultimately, there could be supply shortages.”
Government grants and subsidies for biofuels are also having unintended environmental consequences in the Amazon and South-East Asia, where rain forests are being burnt to clear land for biofuel crops, such as palm oil, and sugar cane, used to produce ethanol. Figures from the OECD show that Europe would need to convert more than 70 per cent of arable land in order to raise the proportion of biofuel used in road transport to 10 per cent.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C5-2302045%2C00.html
There was an interview on Meet the Press a month or so ago that addressed this problem. The president of one of the oil companies statedthat his company was addressing bio fuels from secondary sourcing i.e. garbage, sewage, etc. since primary sourcing would profoundly affect world food supplies.
manure powered cars, anyone?
Kim: And if they ever perfect the “cellulostic” ethanol process Third World countries will be harvesting the grass beneath their feet.
Pwag:
I really never contemplated the two weeks worth of water statement. I’ve kinda ingnored it because I live in a wet area. My city hasn’t lost water in a hurrricane for over thirty years now. Two weeks of water for a household of four is quite extensive. But how could water everywhere go down? The worst case nuclear event—it won’t matter, because two weeks won’t be enough. Would you just mind typing what you think it is without all the various scenarios? I’m guessing you’ve settled on one main concept.
Leo7 – at 16:52 OK so I am not Pwag, However, I think city dewellers should prepare for water troubles. I would think that keeping water on in the cities would be the primary concern for any government (over power) since it can lead to all kinds of other disease. And there will likely be work slow downs due to sick workers. So having the capability to store a several days water is good. Since the water will be on and off. (just a guess) However, you do need the ability to treat the water since it will also be likely that you will not be able to trust it. The reason is once water lines are turned off, or if the city runs out of chlorine, then the lines can become contaminated (the pressure drops and they can suck in bad water) and they are not “good” again until the chlorinated water can flow through them and kill any bacteria that may have entered.
You have to forgive me since I am not on a city system so I have not tried to study it from a city point of view. I store about 500 gals. I chlorinate it with bleach (about a cup) and go that way. However I have an Ozone system (via solar pannels) that can kick in if I run out of chlorine so I am not tied to a supply line.
Yes, I think biodiesel is a great alternative, *IF* it can be made from local, renewable resources. Palm fronds in the tropics, wheat or prairie straw or hemp in the midwest, dung from cattle, etc. I believe we were given the answers to all our problems by our Creator, sometimes we just are a little “slow on the uptake” to find and use those answers.
Dennis C: Clearly you are a master prepper. I will have to think about this a little more. It’s two issues;maintaining service and water treatment. What to do depends on what happens to the utilities. It is easier to store than have to drive to a river and bring back for treatment which could get complicated. I’ve skipped this because I’ve always assummed I’d be working and basics would be provided. Recently, I’ve had cause to re-think this. I ran into the retired hospital administrator at my work, I mentioned AF and asked his opinion, he advised me to run like hell! Said, unless the govt. backed any prep with cold cash, the hospital would not change the bottom line that led to profit for something that may or may not occur in the next 1–10 years. He said it was too much of a financial obligation for the facility to take on over the bare bone essentials already in place. (You should know his nickname was Scrooge) He also said, if he wasn’t retired he would’ve lied to me because his bottom line was making sure the services under him provided care to the patients in exchange for the privlege to bill them. I’ve seen our central supply, it is just in time stocking. Where do you buy water barrels locally?
Regarding cities, don’t apartment buildings need electricity to pump water up to higher floors? Normal water pressure would only reach so high, I would think. (Don’t want to guess how high.)
Jane – at 18:57
vertial cities- yes, many cities have high rise dewellings. I think the rule of thumb is after 6 or 7 floors you need elevators and water pumps. Some of them have tanks on top, but you have to have power to fill them.
Around here we pump because there can be a lot up and downs due to the mountains (my front yard is 8600 feet and the top of the back yard is 9100 feet).
The trick is that if you have a holding tank, you don’t need a big pump. Just one with enough lift. You just let it run a long time to fill the tank. (I have a 12 VDC pump - Real Goods, solar). But I don’t know what a vertical city person would do. You would have to have the pump at the bottom of the building.
Just found this thread and wanted make a few observations (based upon my fear of pandemic BF, two years in the army, and having lived in a “real” third world country and seeing first hand what bad water and malnourishment does to children). Get past the debate of two weeks worth of water. You can always use it on your flowers if BF passes us by. I believe two months of water won’t be enough. Remember there may be three waves of BF before its over, if then. Two weeks doesn’t begin to be enough. The water works people are going to be sick. They have families that will be sick too. Here are some observations/suggestions. Get a real source of water and some way to purify it (water filter or bleach or both). Don’t depend on the government, local,state,or federal. They will be up to their eyeballs in troubles. (i.e. New Orleans) We will be on our own; individually or in groups, for some time (months). Isolation from other groups will be the demise of BF. You may see an “official” after BF has run its course, but don’t count on them sending in the marines, unless it is to “requisition” part of your supplies to feed the troops. Store everything that you can. The worst that can happen to your supplies is that you have to eat them. Think of the money you’ll save later if nothing happens. We can have a party. Have a good secondary source of heating too. If you are burning wood, don’t underestimate how much you will need. In Maine, they burn about eight cords of wood in winter. In Alabama, about 2–3 cords. Learn how to camoulflage the fact that you have heat, light, food, and water or in desperate situations someone will attempt to make it their possessions.
To answer the question, over a year.
If this even approaches the infection rate and lethality of 1918 it will be bad. If this exceeds 1918, it’ll be worse.
Medical Mavern - do you have a link for the “15 days of food per person in the US at any time.” I’ve heard that before but have not been able to verify it.
Leo7 - take out the electrical grid. EMP pulse of a strategic attack on the grid. Big dection of the US have been out from just “normal” happeneings.
Hide in the Hills: if 2 weeks of water (and its ramifications)is going to be a problem 2 months is almost inconceivable. It is not the being without, it is what needing it in the first place is saying.
pfwag-
Yes, you are right that the implications of such an event are serious. I do not think that there is any conspiracy involved, it’s just the right hand not knowing, etc. Most folks outside the Beltway think of the federal government as a single almost omnipotent entity, but it’s not. It’s really a agglomeration of lots of little satrapies.
pwag at 21:48: I have only been able to find secondary sources from dubious outlets for those figures. The primary source was supposed to be the U.S.D.A. Crop Production Report for September 2005. And rather than ALL foods, the foods that are referred to are United States controlled “warehouse foods”. On that date (Sept. 2005) there was supposed to be 15.7 pounds of food, including unprocessed wheat, per capita. 11 pounds of that figure was wheat. So that leaves 4.7 pounds left for the more commonly used foodstuffs like cheese, etc.
I have looked through what I could find of the Crop Production Report and can not find those figures. Maybe somebodyelse will have better luck.
But assuming the figures are accurate, the bad news is that U.S. govt.-owned stocks have drastically fallen each year since the 1960s. And we don’t know how much is in the retail pipeline at any given moment, (with our “just-in-time” cannery operations and our increasing food imports I doubt that there are many days there).
A pretty bleak picture, all in all, when you also factor in the inevitable distribution problems with a moderate to severe panflu.
I know my wife asked the question down at our local King Soopers and was told they don’t have much in the store or pipeline.
Y2K didn’t get the JIT inventory so maybe BF will?
The bean counters will be the cause of the death of us all.
I began preparing for PBF which I believe is a very real threat. But growing up in Florida, prepping was something you did every season. Having said that, we got hit very badly with Andrew and our preps, along with our house, car, etc were gone with the wind.
Still, I’ve lived in the Middle East (in Lebanon) and know the culture well. I don’t like what’s going on and I’m very nervous about it. I was very surprised to know that a lot of people in Beirut do not prep! My ex husband got a tounge lashing from me for being such an idiot and not protecting his family. I told him that on the basis I have 3 months of food stored and I live in London, he should at lest have 6 months worth. In any case, I feel very much at ease that come what may, we are a little more prepared than the average folk. This is not about Islam or Politics, it’s about protecting my little family that I adore from ANYTHING.
Right, I’m now going to get political but I will only one thing. Two friends of mine where killed by a bomb planted at a local pub by the Irish Republican Army. They are Catholics not Muslims. The problem is extremist and not the faith itself. (sorry, could not help myself)
pfwag – at 03:37
Not to get too off topic here, but I’m on several “Mormon” lists due to canning and such and frankly they are just as likely to ignore church doctrine as any other religion.
A small minority of Mormons have preps for a year, most definitely do not based on conversations that I have witnessed.
I don’t think we will be able to focus on any one group … I mean look at the huge differences in prep mentality here on fluwiki alone … and say THAT group are preppers.
Not yanking your chain, just giving an observation. <grin>
Personally my preps evolved mostly from a process of thinking about economics.
Part of that is the economics of disruption … physical disaster, pandemic, terrorism, loss of job, etc.
The other part is the economics of the current market pricing. By stocking my pantry differently … not just in content but in amount of time that the pantry items will last between grocery runs … I will always be ahead of the current pricing trends. Grocery items are only going up, even at Wallyworld. You can change stores, but you can’t change that trend.
And because my economic outlook and our general family economic philosophy runs towards being conservative, preparation is a good fit for us.
But I’m in this for the long haul … whether there is a pandemic event in the near future or not, there eventually will be. There will eventually be some type of economic distruption, minor or major, just like we have had in our lives in the past. My responsibility as a parent is to teach, and model for my children, economic habits that are healthy and make sense. Preparedness is just another link in that chain.
I’m signing off this thread. The “2 weeks of water” still has me concernend though. What am I doing about that? Gathering up all my stored water info and putting it in a report (about 80 pages) so I can print it out just in case I don’t have any power for my computer when I need to know something about water. The report I am writing and sharing is called:
“Water: Everything you ever wanted to know or at least need to know about water so that you won’t ever be without safe drinking water.”
If you want a (free and I am not selling anything) copy send me an e-mail. pfwag@lycos.com I should have it finished in a week.
Whatever happens, with my preps I won’t have to buy any TP for a long time. Now if my wife could just take back all the 1-ply, prison-grade TP she bought on sale somewhere…
Closed to maintain Forum speed.