What are we preparing for?
I look at threads on this site and I see a group thought process that has projected a possible or even an inevitable future. I see here the detail steps necessary to understand and prepare ourselves, our family, our community, and our world for a pandemic.
This is the two week, 3 month, 6month, one year, 18 month perspective future that holds more horror for many than hope. We try to give reasons to each other to sustain that hope. I support this site with my time and as I am able and I do have hope.
But, I ask all of you? What are we preparing for? Is it to have enough food to survive? Is it to sustain enough of our family/society/culture/infrastructure to take up where we left off?
I postulate to you that it will not be possible. We will never again be in a position to resume our lives as we know them to be once we come out on the other side of a moderate to severe pandemic. Your old job will not just be there. It will be a very different world.
I think the looming pandemic may be only the first crisis we face. It is not just the statistically inevitable pandemic of one pathogen or another and the potential fifty percent worse case fatality rate that is my only nightmare. It is a short term convergence of several emergencies that will impede our return to the United States and developed world’s definition of normalcy. These things are all happening in addition to a pandemic.
I t is not my purpose to open a discussion of this convergence except to give you an idea of what I am talking about. We can call this the convergent crisis.
Did you know that when I was a child the sky was always clear and blue? If we keep burning fossil fuels, consuming meat that produces methane, and using up the worlds limited resources in what can only be describe as an orgy of excess, then this planet will indeed transition in a very short period of time to a world not only without blue skies but a dead earth and an ocean that has boiled into space.
Before that comes about we will run out of water in this country to grow crops. We irrigate with water left over from an ice age and it is seriously depleted.
We have less than 40 years of fossil fuels left. There are no viable energy alternatives that can support us in the style we have become accustomed to. Without natural gas to make our fertilizers and a distain for organic use and enrichment of the land, our factory farms will have turned the six inches left (it was once measured in feet) of top soil into a lifeless media for the delivery of chemicals we no longer have. These are just some aspects of the convergent crisis we face.
We consume everything we can. Instead of husbanding our north slope, or our off shore sources of oil we used it up in a few years. We have not even the good sense to stop running around on the surface of this planet like so many ants making war with another colony. War is after all our major enterprise. And what are we fighting over?…the right to run around on the surface of this planet in our SUV. Why in the world do we allow the developed nations of our world to spend a vast proportion of our resources on the things that can kill us all?
So, I ask you again, what are we really preparing for?
Maybe this pandemic can be a catalyst for some needed changes? Will we have in a post pandemic world a planet with a vastly reduced population? That may in fact be true. An infrastructure without so much stress on its edges may sustain us very well. That alone may be enough to reverse the trend on global warming. Will we have to work in our community and grow our food with only animal fertilizers and power? Will our new life be centered on providing food and water for our family? Will we have to relearn how to make things again? Since computers and their like are made from fossil fuels will it be a strange mix of low power high technology for a short period?
Does this disaster give us a chance not to blindly accept the world view that we have inherited? Can we use a horror like a severe pandemic to in fact save the future? How long is your world view? Are you in your heart a hedonist with not a thought for the next seven generations? Twenty years ago, I told everyone I know that we should ban the automobile. I still think I am right. It is not enough to just survive; I want to do it with a certain style and love for all of the things in the web of life.
What kind of a life can you envision in the sort, near and long term in a post pandemic world? I just want to know that I may see my child living on with your child and seven generations into their future…. What should you really be preparing for?
Man … I think I’ll have to break into the supplies and make a really big white russian!
I am preparing so that I have time to make whatever adjustments are necessary to survive in whatever the world is like after a serious event. If survival is not possible afterwards - then so be it. But I will not miss the opportunity to survive for lack of preparation.
I worry about what the world will be like in the near future - but I am not afraid of work, I have a good mind, and I have skills that are useful in a world that may no longer be technology driven.
I prep to buy myself time to make adjustments.
I prepare for ………….just as a normal thing that I do and have done for years and years. Having preparations, allows myself not only to take care of my needs but needs of others, without relying on some government function to work its small helping hand. Been in the emergency field (fire service for over 30 years) has taught me that the most level headed citizens in a diaster, are those that have prepped before hand and are taking care of themselves, thereby allowing those of us in the emergency field to help more people.
I have been in the prep mode for since I was a young man in the fire service,,,,and yes at times had to use what I had to make my life and those of others more comfortable in circumstances that otherwise would or could become fearful without the preparations. I have prepped some extra supplies due to the possibility that the avian flu will touch us,,,,,and just because it has not at this time,,,does not mean that it will not in the future. I do not fear the future as my heart is right not only with spiritual things, but the material things in this world to keep us going. I do think the future will be devised of things not to our likings, and if I can help my family and myself (as well as others) with my background, education, and preparations, at least we will be able to continue on,,,,and in that way may help others also.
I share your horror of what we have done to this planet and the short-sightedness of many of the endeavors that seem to be so important to so many. I prepare to survive and teach my three children not to repeat the self-indulgence or allow the kind of gradual decline that has led to our collective downfall. I think the world would actually be a better place with a couple of hundred million less people in it. I just plan to be one of the ones left to try and get it right in the end. Who knows. It might be a new beginning and a better day.
DoubleD – at 23:50
“I prep to buy myself time to make adjustments. “
I second that emotion. IF it happens, it is my hope to live through to help put it together on the other side. Better I would hope.
It’s only in this last 100 years that we may have been able to forget that humans always lived on the sharp edge of extinction. Basically the same threats that have always faced countries — war, pestilence, disease, hunger and want are now what threaten the entire world.
Our way of life has become so extreme, indulgent, wasteful and polluting, I think that flu (or whatever other disease — AIDS, SARS, dengue, TB, malaria, mad cow ) may be nature’s way of unsettling a very harmful balance we have had until now. Someone said that “Global Warming” and all the crisis it creates may be “Mother Earth having a Fever” to fight the infection or excessive infestation of mankind. It’s too bad it has gotten this far.
Mankind has become a dominant force in the world, with knowledge and power beyond anything the ancients had, but we are not using it to become more noble, wise, and happy, nor make all our neighbors noble, wise and happy. We’ve increased the world supply of people; but we don’t increase the amount of care, respect, and simple sustenance each is entitled to have; the more people we have, the more we have destroyed and mistreated them.
The ancient people, and all the great world religions, have definitions of good behavior that benefits the individual, the community of people, and the harmony of nature. Each warns about excessive pride and arrogance, carelessness and greed, ignorance and lack of respect for self, others, and nature, and encourage the better motives of generousity, kindness, caring, and respect.
Our world cultures seem to emphasize reward, growth and progress based on the weakness for greed, profit, personal status, but have not folded in encouragement for nobler manifestations helpfulness, kindness, thoughtfulnes, and respect. Of course everything we have now is going to go away; better sooner than later. If this had occurred in 1963, imagine how different we would be now!
I hope that whatever befalls us, the events will select for a majority of people who will be the best that humans can be, and will be the best to start a better culture. Now may be the time to think on who we must install to be our trusted leaders, philosopher kings and councils of wise men to lead us.
Im planning for Avian flu. And with limited resources and space I must make the best of what I have. Other than that, come what may. If the current events is just the scratch in the surface of what the world will be like permanently or on a long term basis then I don’t mean it in a cynical way but in a serious way “It wont be worth living for/in”.
Outside HN51 news, the wide variety of what I see reported daily scares me more. The genuine feirce hatred for all mankind on all continents. I wouldnt want to struggle to survive in a world like that. Some things are worth fighting for, others are not.
Also…Some things are worth prepping for, others are not.
I’m preparing so I can reach the other side. Change is part of life. Mostly change comes so slowly that we dont even notice. Sometimes it comes fast and is unpleasant.
If I could have seen a photo of myself as I am now when I was in my physical prime, I might have been horrified to see the grey hair and the ravages of gravity and time. But in this present moment, I feel pretty darn good.
I probably will not like what a pandemic brings into my life, but I have no control over it. Afterwards, that will be my present moment. I will adapt.
Mosaic :
Precisly. Things that happened fast ( amount of change) 50 years ago in a span of a decade are happening at faster pace on now a yearly base but in a direction that has a greater profound impact per capita not only on our eco-system and health but economy, humanity vs moral/ religious conflict. Growing up I’ve always heard my mother say “The older you get the faster time passes”. Somehow I don’t think this is the sam thing. I am not premillennialist Christian altho I am Christian. It is all coming to a head, direct and real fast.
As far as the eco system goes. Take the population of people 50 years ago and do the math. Not too long ago there were only a very few industrialized nations. Now look how many there are today. I dont see this getting any better given that money is the driving force in a world wrapped up in was & hatred (generally speaking).
wrapped up in was = Wrapped up in war
Dude - me thinks you have watched An Inconvenient Truth one too many times.
We do not have “less than 40 years of fossile fuels left” There is more oil shale in just Colorado that that. Ditto for oil tar in Canada. We could easily build nuclear power plants if the Ludites would allow it. The hydrogen and solar economies are within reach. We just need a few % more efficiency for solar and oil to stay above $70 or even $100 a barrel to spur on hydrogen.
There are more trees growing now in the USA than there were before the nasty whitemen came.
AIDS is mostly a lifestyle choice that is totally preventable. We tracked down and eliminated SARS. If the Govts would get thier heads out of thier but and bring back DDT (Rachel Carson and the enviromentalists fabricated most of the data) we could dramatically reduce dengue and malaria.
Not that there aren’t problems but things are that bad. Yes pandemic BF could be bad but then again maybe it won’t. Maybe somebody clever will create the ubiquitous vaccine for all influenza and it goes away like small pox did. Just think, most of us won’t ahve to buy any toilet paper for a long time.
Someone wise once said not to fear the things that can destroy the body but those things that can destroy the soul. Fear destroys both.
pfwag: not to turn this political/religious/whatever, but your statement:
AIDS is mostly a lifestyle choice that is totally preventable
is so wrong for the millions and millions of women around the world who have contracted it from their partners and husbands who either are sleeping around or frequent prostitutes. The prostitutes contract it because they have to be a prostitute because they live in desperate siutations. I doubt it is a profession they dreamed of as a child. Yes condoms can prevent it, but most can’t afford them or their partners refuse to wear them. Who is “choosing” in that situation?
But I do agree with your statement about fear. It can paralyze. I was much more fearful of AF when I first started prepping, but preps have empowered me. It may not be enough, especially if things get really bad. But I’m doing the best I can. At a certain point things will be totally out of my control. It’s then a matter of how well one can handle a crisis situation + a bit of luck.
pfwag – at 03:37
Yes! What you said.
LauraB – at 07:19
Nobody ever NEEDS to be a prostitute.
And if women haven’t figured out by now that they can’t put their health/safety in someone else’s hands, I just don’t know what to tell them. If those men (husbands included) won’t wear the condoms, they shouldn’t expect any nookey. Not working? Answer=singleness+celebacy. Not an answer? Why not? It has worked fine for me for years.
I’m with DoubleD.
We prepare because we have hope that by doing so some if not all of our family will survive to come out on the other side. And in the hope that those who do will be wiser and make our world a better place because of that wisdom.
Also because we know we cannot all rely on our government or the social service agencies to take care of us. Those of us who do even a little for ourselves now will likely be much better off later on.
It’s all about hope for the future.
Dude and Jade4now: As I and others have pointed out IF you scrap this capitalistic, hedonistic, oil-fueled, car culture of a civilization prepare to downsize by 5 billion or so. If that happens via panflu or by design, it would be one of the most horrific processes ever seen on the planet.
It would be far more chaotic than you could imagine, and your grand social schemes would go aglimmering as the first billion started bloating on the landscape.
I don’t think a pandemic won’t make the world a better place, we will be left with the same bad, good and medium people, rich and poor—only less of them. We can still hope for the future, but a pandemic won’t change people’s attitudes about conserving and sharing resources.
Knowall- I think that in the event of a horrific event which destabilizes the current culture, you will end up with a higher percentage of bad people for a while. While the same percentages will survive initially, conditions will be difficult and therefore opportunistic bad people will turn predatory, reducing the ranks of good and medium people for a while.
Ultimately, the rule of local and swift justice will balance tings out again, as they did in the old West.
You need to remember that the word “Outlaw” didn’t merely mean that someone was a bad guy. It meant that they had been declared to be outside of the legal system for protection, and it was open season on them.
In the event of such a calamity, there would be a (perhaps extended) period of rather grim social conditions. But then things would improve.
I agree with Double D, buying time to make adjustments. That’s why I prep. I also believe that this will not be as bad as 1918, most of us will survive. I have two kids and I have always taught them to have a plan B. Bring your coat just in case. I prep for the just in case. Who knows what life has to offer, we should prep and then enjoy our lives. I can’t worry about the fall of civilization, chaos etc because I can’t control other people’s lives and how they act. Therefore, I have prepped as best I can and now it’s time to enjoy my life.
Dude,
Please run for President in 2008…
I’d vote for dude!
It had better be a worldwide dictatorship with some serioius muscle backing it. 5 billion people won’t take too kindly to being “downsized”.
MM at 11:52 - 5 billion people won’t take too kindly to being “downsized”.
If those 5 billion people don’t downsize voluntarily, their gluttony will lead to a worse result, and how kindly people take it will be completely irrelevant.
Just like a pandemic. My sister-in-law said to me: But I don’t want to fix meals at home for a year! as if such a protestation would carry any weight with H5N1.
anon: I have always found “Nature” (however brutal) to be kinder than “Man” and his enforced dystopias. Let the cycle complete itself, (as if we could stop it). This is our “hand”, and we will have to play it out as best we can without killing the human spirit in the interim.
Medical Maven
“and your grand social schemes would go aglimmering as the first billion started bloating on the landscape”.
Yup, that would be pretty awful. Maybe not even survivable. But I have no grand social scheme… only the sad conviction that this earth and its current inhabitants can’t go on this way forever. Bloat is in our future and there are times when the stupidity and futility of people and their actions just leave me dumbfounded. PS But I’m still going to try and make it, in case there is something better ahead. I don’t think people can design anything better. Our designs have brought us this far. But I do have faith that there is a bigger plan for better, eventually. Have a nice weekend.
Went to a church Peach Festival, walked the shady streets with a couple and chatted about the weather, changing times, how people don’t want to curb their self indulgences that are now counted as necessities. Had a 50cent lemonade at a enterprenuring site of some little girls who were selling their home made jewelry made obviously at recreation. Had parked at a childrens park, and when I walked back with my homestictched sampler from 1986, I thought of all the changes since 1986. Every year people seem more affluent, more indulgent, more wasteful. So a shock comes, and it will be like those little kids with their lemonaide stand. Only it won’t be under old shade trees with upper middle class homes well heated and air conditioned. We will just go back in time to simpler ways. I’m finished with the amount of preppping I will do, yet at the white elephant I bought a wide mouthed thermos, another new basket for a gift prep if worse comes to worse. I drank my lemonaid and Sobe tea in the shade while I watched small kids playing on all the elaborate play equipment, a far cry from the simple monkey bars, swings and slides we grew up with. If worse comes to worse, these kids will adjust easily enough, it will be the more spoiled and indulged young people who will have the hardest time. The upper middle class will have a big shock, as will the new rich. People who have been tempered by harder lives will fare the best. Today is a perfect summer day, and I am enjoying it. Will go back for a dish of peach ice cream and peaches. So enjoy today and every other good day, and leave the future evolve a bit prepared but not frightened.One thing that always amazes me at a white elephant is the mass of pure junk and tacky garbage that people have accumulated.Its the same with life and living. Its up to you what you accumulate.
It’s a pity that anyone would call responsible stewardship of the planet some kind of “scheme.”
Did somebody say “Peak Oil”?
Google that and see what you get.
‘nuf said.
anon: Only one definition of scheme has the negative connotation. And “responsible stewardship of the planet” would require somebody’s bootheel on my neck, (“private property” as we know it would be a thing of the past), and then there is that “downsizing” thing we talked about. Give me a quick, merciful death via “Natue” any day,(let the cycles rule). Men are cruel with absolute power. And as long as the democracies can forestall that day of “absolute power” it is another day in paradise. : )
Poppy – at 08:42 We prepare because we have hope that by doing so some if not all of our family will survive to come out on the other side. And in the hope that those who do will be wiser and make our world a better place because of that wisdom. Also because we know we cannot all rely on our government or the social service agencies to take care of us. Those of us who do even a little for ourselves now will likely be much better off later on.
This is the gist of it for us too- we are prepping as best we can in hope that we make it through whatever event may happen. We truly believe TSWHTF in some way - might be AI, might be other, but something that will change the lives of everyone will happen, not all that far down the road. We also believe that if we survive whatever it is- we will be faced with a very different society. But eventually things will settle down and life will go on, just very differently for a very long while. So trying to prepare for living without most of our modern trappings in an country that has lost it’s survival skills. It’s daunting- but we could never just give up and not try.
MM,
When it comes to private property vs. the planet, it makes sense to prioritize one’s values. Unfortunately, if those who value pp over the planet have more gold, well then, they make the rules, and unfortunately innocents suffer.
And no one is talking absolute power. Enlightened power would be nice and I think would take into consideration the welfare of all.
If it does not, then this planet will prove far less a paradise in the future. Such a day may be forestalled long enough for you to enjoy your private piece of paradise, but I’d like to think that generations to come (our children) matter more.
anon at 13:48: Research the history of the United States, its beginnings. There is no such thing as “enlightened power”, (read enlightened dictatorship). The founding fathers established a government of “checks and balances” because they knew what a “devil” Man is with unchecked “enlightened power”. All of history goes against what you are proposing.
And as I have stated before John Locke, the philospher, firmly established the right of personal property as the basis of all of our other inherent rights (freedoms). You can’t get around it, (human nature). The communists tried to get around it, and they repeatedly, on a worldwide basis, failed.
I repeat, this is our “hand”. We can work the edges of our predicament, but that is about it. Attempting more would require a worldwide dictatorship. The planet will recover. It always has.
MM- they also knew what a democracy could do but accepted it as the lessor of evils because there are not a whole lot better alternatives. Too bad we didn’t keep the literacy requirements for voting in place. Changing the original property owners to tax payers would greatly help.
George Washington had enlightened power. We’d probably be a ditatorship or a real mess today if it had been a lessor man.
Is there any thread someone can direct me to about the tools we should include in the prepping?
I was just thinking — when I was really really little, before kindergarten, I remember my dad using hand tools to make furniture — he let me play with them while he was working. He had a hand drill, a planer, 4 or 5 screwdrivers, 2 hammers, two saws, a keyhole saw, and chisels, and some ‘rasps.’ I remember how smooth the handles were, and how they fit into his hands just right, and he said they were ‘well balanced.” They were precision, elegant. He said be careful, they were really expensive, weeks of his pay and he didn’t want to have to buy replacements. — I think my brother still has them.
Anyhow, I was in Home Depot the other day, and was looking at hand tools. They were kind of clunky, big heavy molded things with rubber insets and plastic handles. Reasonably priced. The nicest ones came in sets of multiples in big plastic cases. But kind of ‘clumsy.’ And of course, there was a huge department of electric and air pressure power tools.
I’m just now thinking that the tools my dad had (and those probably his father before him) were far, far more suitable for surviving and building a new society without carbon based fuels than what’s commonly sold today. There’s going to be a bridge time before other sources of energy (sunlight, wind, solar, sea) can be tapped; good hand tools need to be included —
Heddie california, start a thread on Good Hand Tools. I’m sure you’ll get a lot of good advice and in one spot. I know exactly what you are driving at, and you are right.
Excellent point, Heddiecalifornia — and something I’d thought about and forgot, so thank you for reminding me. I remember my dad’s tools — a hand drill, with a handle bent in a “U” shape, and another, with geared wheels to turn. Like you, I love elegant old tools — and always dwell over wonderful old mysteries on the tables at barn sales. How useful they’d be if the power goes off for an extended period of time!
MM,
I am not talking about doing away with “personal property.” I am talking about a balance, a prioritization of values: your personal property rights vs. the well-being of your neighbors, other forms of life, the entire planet. It does not have to be one way or the other.
There can be a balance between conflicting interests. There can be consideration for all. Unfettered capitalism can lead to ugly results just as easily as communism.
And you say this: Attempting more would require a worldwide dictatorship.
Or, it might require nations keeping agreements they’ve already made, agreements made in a spirit of cooperation and consideration for other inhabitants of the planet, agreements then broken at the whim of just one man.
I’ve also been checking out flea markets and second hand stores for some of those great old hand tools.
heddiecalifornia – at 14:56 hand tools - I don’t want to sound like a commercial- but you can get good quality hand tools like granddad used from garrettwade.com. Sears is OK, but think no power.
You want things that you can sharpen instead of buying new blades. And use linseed oil on the wood handles.
And Lily – at 15:02 - you are right we need a hand tool thread. I will see about starting one.
I am preparing for utilities failing, stores having shortages, avoiding social contact, I am trying to prepare for such things but to be honest; I think that there is only a 25% chance of it happening. I am basically an inventor/tinker type of person. BF is just an excuse for me to have fun doing what I enjoy. I live “remote” anyway, so it is not much of a burden. In fact it frees up some time since I now shop less.
Right now we (me + dear wife) could go 3 months or totally cut off from utilities and the world without much change in life style except a little conservation of power. I do however plan of being able to take in one other if needed (orphan, friend, neighbor in need…) so that is really only 2 months. I have a pond and stream so my water is no problem.
I don’t believe there will be roaming bands of the half dead in the streets, or destruction of society,…. Instead I think many will get sick and some may die, but life will go on. Example-If half the people die, there may be only half as many mechanics to fix cars but then there will be extra cars for the living. Society will survive. You will see seas of volunteers rush in to help. You will see retirees come back to work to help when needed. Every church (read religious group) will aid communities. Storekeepers will make “care baskets” to “sell” to drive-thru patrons in parking lots. --- OK so I hope for the best. But hope is a powerful weapon against fear.
If the worst happens and it goes H2H with a high mortality rate: we will see both the best and the worst of mankind. But through it all there will be bright shining examples of those that help others, that fight against all odds, that sacrifice everything so their children can live, that will let others eat first even when they are hungry, will brave the weather to take food to a neighbor, …. The world is a giant “Rorschach” and we can choice to focus on what we wish. I choose to prepare and look for opportunities to do good. (I normally don’t say such things, but since no one here really knows me it doesn’t matter- I can sound old fashion and “hokey”)
anon at 15:09: The “whim of just one man” doesn’t mean diddly-squat to India and China and all of the other nations trying to match western consumption levels. As I said, “It would take a worldwide dictatorship”. Good luck on bending China to your will. The problem is intractable. And we are debating how many hydrocarbons can dance on the head of a pin. As I said, we can work the edges of our predicament. I am as sad as you are at what we are facing, but your cure would be worse than the disease, and end what is left of the best experiment in government that has ever graced this (still greeen) earth. : )
P.S. It will be a losing battle, but technological fixes can indeed forestall the inevitable while still maintaining the freedoms that we in the industrialized democracies hold dear (or should). As the old song says, “You don’t know what you got till it is gone”. But I would rather have a less than pristine environment (even global warming) than a top-down, governmental hell-hole of an existence. You get out of life what you put in to it. We now have a world-wide, merit-based system. It is tough and exhausting, but it beats despotism and nepotism.
I agree with Dennis C’s assesment (DennisC – at 16:27).
If it plays out like 1918 we’ll see 2% mortality. The current 50% is most likely due to mild cases that are undetected or undiagnosed - as others on this site have pointed out. It wasn’t the end of the world in 1918 and it won’t be this time around either.
Dude’s scenario will only play out if the kill rate is 50% or higher, all the oil is gone and global warming boils the oceans away. The likelihood of that is considerably lower than Dennis C’s more reasonable 1:4 chance, much lower (read it has never happened before in the history of the world). Maybe I’ll finally get my bosses job though;)
I also don’t buy the argument that environmentalists are a dormant pool of benevolent dictators; they’re every bit as much subject to fallen human nature as the rest of us.
On a local basis (ie, the family unit) it could result in some tragic early deaths, but I doubt there will be significant starvation, if any, in the USA.
Sorry, that was me.
“We now have a world-wide, merit-based system.”
That’s how it’s been sold, however in reality it’s mostly multi-national corporations exploiting workers in ways they’d never get away with in U.S.A.
“…what is left of the best experiment in government that has ever graced this (still greeen) earth.”
This is typical American narcissism. I have some English relatives and Canadian friends who would say the very same thing about their own “experiments in government.” And at present their opinions might be more valid.
typical American narcissism? I think you’ve been listening to too much NPR, too.
Medical Maven was just stating her opinion, which happens to be the same as the opinion of a lot of other Americans. So we’re narcissistic? Used to be called patriotism.
I’m glad the English and Canadian people feel the same about their government. They ought to feel the same as their governments as well. Otherwise why stay there? The French and the Mexicans should too (oh but wait the Mexicans all want to come here apparently). Heck the Cubans should feel the same about theirs as well. Some of them do. The ones who don’t probably try to escape.
Jeez, just what I am looking forward to-an experiment in government.”
Somehow, if the breakdown comes, I suspect sharing our resources with our neighbors will come at the receiving end of the barrel of a gun.
As far as global warming, hey, America is at fault, but let’s take a close look at India, China, Brazil and Indonesia.
Jefiner – at 08:22, a question.
Somehow, if the breakdown comes, I suspect sharing our resources with our neighbors will come at the receiving end of the barrel of a gun. Is your reference local or global? I believe that on a local basis (maybe at the city level or possibly the neighborhood level) that people will pull together. That is my hope anyway.
I personally do not want to live in a world where the strong survive. Note that I have elderly parents and no children (but 4 kids for whom I am an honorary uncle - in protecting those kids, all bets are off). The same goes for my parents. I would appreciate your thoughts and others on the matter.
Mike
We in the US have 25% of the population and contribute most of the pollution.
Melanie – at 19:20 and for balance-
One U.S. farmer feeds 129 people, 101 in the United States and 28 abroad. The United States produces 42.7 percent of the world’s soybeans, 34.4 percent of the world’s corn, 21.2 percent of the world’s cotton, and 11.6 percent of the world’s wheat.
It is the entropy of a system that you should look at.
Let’s not forget the rest of the planet trying to catch up to the USA’s standard of living which generally means an increase in pollution and toxins.
Melanie and others. We seem to have gone off topic here.
Mike
Narcissism has never been confused with patriotism. But there’s been a movement in the last couple of years by a group who want to redefine honorable patriotism as uncharitable ignorance, bias and self-righteous arrogance. I resist.
anonymous, why does an opinion that differs from your own earn scathing retorts, disrespect and the suggestion that they listen to NPR? Sounds like you’ve got an issue with NPR.
The world is changing. I believe we have lived through the best of times: the 50′s, 60′s, 70′s, 80′s and 90′s. It was a time of prosperity and unlimited future, of opportunity. Most people did not consider the limitations of this very tiny planet.
Those limitations are now at hand. Humans are spreading over the planet like bacteria on a petri dish. We are meeting ourselves on the other side. We are finally having to face the carrying capacity of the planet as far as humans goes.
I’m prepping for that. Bird flu may just be the first wave. New Orleans was a warning. There is more to come.
Sorry to be such a pessimist, but I’m a biologist, and ecologist, a geologist and a chemist, as well as a student of history. We are all frogs in a pot. If we tune in, we have a chance.
Remember that the Roaring Twenties followed the pandemic of 1918–1919. Having faced down death, people threw caution and values aside and went on one wild party. The majority of us will survive a pandemic.
But I sense this is just the first of far worse things to come. I think everyone should prep. My first job in 1964 was taking applications for food stamps. At that time the US had warehouses stocked with food. There was a sentence in front of the food stamp manual. The purpose of the food stamp program was not only to feed the hungry, but to provide farmers a market. That seems like another lifetime away.
I like the idea of surviving. It is a challenge. I like the idea of getting old; of sitting on my front porch telling another generation what it was like for myself and my contemporaries.
I prepare to give my kids and grandkids an edge on surviving. If DH and/or I should die, we’ll know we gave them the best shot we could at surviving a pandemic. Our kids are smart, hard-working and honest adults now; just the kind of Earth Citizens a post-pandemic period will need.
glo – at 19:39
Medical Maven said something completely devoid of uncharitable ignorance, bias, and self-righteous arrogance— when referring to our system as the best experiment in government that has ever graced this (still green) earth.
anonymous – at 23:47 was referring to that innocent comment as typical American narcissism as if we’re all supposed to let the insult just pass without comment, thereby implying implicitly that we agree with it. I find that that expectation is typical of people in certain circles. They and their pals tend to spout all kinds of intellectual comments about how the US is the source of all evil in this world. Then as soon as someone says something of a contradictory opinion, suddenly we’re the ones stirring up trouble. Many people you probably drink latte with think Americans who think highly of America and actually vocalize said opinions (God forbid) are something worse than patriotic. You, for example, want to tell people what kind of patriotism is honorable and what is not. It seems to me that you and like-minded folks are the ones who are redefining patriotism.
You asked —Why does an opinion that differs from your own earn scathing retorts, disrespect and the suggestion that they listen to NPR? Not all opinions that I disagree with get that response. In fact most don’t. Only ones that use terminology like typical American narcissism and consider American from a global perspective compel me to bring up NPR. Those kinds of arrogant comments sound like soundbites from NPR, which is full of opinions like yours and an annoying drain on taxpayers.
Sorry if you think that my not letting obnoxious comments slide by without comment is me being disrespectful or scathing. Disrespect does not feel good, does it?
The economic fallout would be hard to predict but these type of events have happened before. Maybe it is time to study past epidemics. After the Black Death The economy of europe was changed from a fuedal society one which could support a business class, to one where peasants could own land, and a person in skilled trades could join a middle class. England went from a farming nation-oats to sheep farming. These changes were brought about by a reduced workforce. Certainly the INcas and the Aztecs would have been surprised if you could have told them that their culture, language, gods, customs and knowledge base would be destroyed by a handful of invaders.
I believe if TSHTF and if it as bad as 50% ,things will be different, maybe radically so. But I also believe that things will go on and hey in 500, 600 years all this will be forgotton too and will be painted in the history books as just the natural progession of things-if it is remembered at all.
What are you ranting about? Quit spouting stuff you heard on Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
I happen to agree with the concept of America being “the best experiment in government”. The early organizers were exceptional in their forward thinking and quite willing to put it into play, to practice civil disobediance and cessation from England and the king. There’s nothing ‘perfect’ or eutopian about it, but what an awesome and impressive experiment in government. A bunch of unruly, defiant Englishmen with unconventional opinions of freedom and equality who dared to put it into action. They weren’t patriots, they were actually expatriate from England.
NPR? C’mon now, do you really listen to it, or did someone tell you that? Indeed it is “full of opinions like yours” - and yours as well.
Like you, I was shaped by my parents and find that I got my opinions from them. No lattes, I prefer Hills Bros. boiled in a percolator. I chop a lot of wood, hunt and fish, own rifles, and run a commercial fishing boat. Your preconcieved notions and stereotypes are showing. And which country did your immigrant family come from?
For those of you who think this is inappropriate to the thread, I disagree. It is completely appropriate - what are we really prepping for? Aside from the fear of death and suffering, there is a general sense of fear. What can we expect after and how can we prepare for every eventuality, not just with groceries but mentally as well. Fear of what happens next, who’s going to be in charge? Is it going to be someone of similar opinions? Will there be anarchy? Maybe there will be nothing dramatic, a bit of inconvenience and life continues. Analysis of all these unknown possibilities are the root of fear.
Sorry, no ident on that. anonymous at 22:10 ~
CAMike – at 19:12 You wrote: I personally do not want to live in a world where the strong survive.
You live in that world now. It’s always been that way and always will unil Kingdom come.
Aside from the possible political ramifications of the first post on this thread, (and Dude, I’m not dissing your thoughts!) how did this thread get SO OFF-TOPIC?
If nothing else, all of you need go back to Dude’s opening post and re-read the very last line he typed:
I find it interesting how so many are so far apart in their thinking when it comes to something so unimportant as what someone listens to on radio or TV. Such petty-assed bickering is going to get you absolutely nowhere if push comes to shove and TSHTF, you have to SIP for weeks at a time, and the worst-case scenario is that you run out of food or water, and have to go begging of your neighbors whom you’ve been squabbling with based on your political viewpoints…
None of you knows for absolute certainty that the person you’re belittling isn’t your next-door neighbor…and memory is definitely NOT the first thing to go…
Sorry for the rant…but NPR, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Colter, and their respective viewpoints are far more political than this board really allows…
No disrespect intended and I did go back and read the starting post - I think it’s right ON-TOPIC. One of the few that I’ve been on lately that has stayed right on it and flowed with intensity of thought. He called the questions and there were responses.
This is part of risk comunication, crisis counseling, critical stress debriefing, etc etc. I’ll go away now.
Does this disaster give us a chance not to blindly accept the world view that we have inherited? Can we use a horror like a severe pandemic to in fact save the future? How long is your world view? Are you in your heart a hedonist with not a thought for the next seven generations? Twenty years ago, I told everyone I know that we should ban the automobile. I still think I am right. It is not enough to just survive; I want to do it with a certain style and love for all of the things in the web of life.
I am not a judge, but I am impressed with the majority of opinions expressed here. I have been studying this subject for a long time. I am not living in fear. I live in hope of people coming to understand, really understand what is going on. I think that a smaller, carbon balanced existence is easy to do. We do have to first learn to control population. That alone would give the planet time to breath and come to balance again. Would it take a dictatorship to do that? I don’t know. I can envision a law that takes away our fundamental right to reproduce more than two children. Could we all agree to a state of emergency and have this work world wide? I don’t think so. It is the root of the problem. It is not just hedonism. You know I like NPR, and I am (ick) a liberal, but I am definitely a patriot. My family came over here, third boat from the Mayflower (many boats had that name back then - based on a passenger list). So what….well it gave me an appreciation of the sacrifices made on my behalf by my ancestors. It made me study history. It made me a better informed voter. It made me a better citizen. I take real pride in this country, but I am not afraid to tell my government when it gets it wrong. So, I too am preparing to come out on the other side of a lot of problems that we are bringing down on ourselves. I am an engineer. I know thermodynamics, calculus, etc. It leads me to conclude that if we wisely downscale and buy, work local and focus on community, then the future won’t be that bad. We can get by with a wonderful infrastructure if we just ban automobiles. When you look at all the alternative energy available, think about it a moment. What can you do without a fossil fuel base to make everything you need to create the infrastructure? What do you think things are made our of? Natural gas allows the feeding of other people thru the production of fertilizers. The plans need to be made so we husband our resources and use the limited oil to make only those tools we need to make other technology work. We can’t just drive around, import, have a service economy, and use up this precious resource in our SUV. We need to start to reestablish a really smart industrial base…NOW. Only a megalomaniac would want to be President (grin). I grew up as a kid wanting the job. After running for three different offices (winning), I decided that politics was too corrupt and the voters were not paying enough attention - so I quit. Analysis of unknown possibilities is not the root of fear, but the beginning of wisdom. I fear the unknown that goes bump in the night…but I smile at the cat that was the source of the noise, when they luxuriated and fell off the bed. I have a collection of hand tools, sharpening stones that will be handed down to those able to use them. I don’t want to debate global warming…you either are smart enough to use Google and figure it out for yourself or you are not. I don’t imply that I am right. I do imply that we all have a responsibility to find out for ourselves. I think there are some really together people on this thread…thank you all. You all exceed my expectations. That is really nice.
glo – at 00:48 --- No disrespect perceived. The opening post is on topic, except that it can misconstrued as being a political rant due to some of it’s content, which could be a bit….volatile.
“…so many are so far apart in their thinking when it comes to something so unimportant as what someone listens to on radio or TV…petty-assed bickering…”
This wasn’t that; it wasn’t “unimportant”, nor was it a political discussion. It was a people discussion. There were references to a news media and to American cultural commentators, but no analysis of such.
I am prepping because I believe that it is a step towards the self sufficiency that I know survivors in this world will live by in the not far distant future. I’ve got some of the best info from this site. The debates about global warming, BF, Peak Oil etc are great and are all indicators of the future I may face in my lifetime. Combustion engines have been a blessing as has all of modern life but I think the transition to a simpler way of life is coming - might as well be prepared as not. I hope BF holds off long enough for my wife and I to establish our next place. I live in a rural area but too close to a major city so am selling up and moving all my stuff to a more remote and fertile area, where I can indulge all my environmental preferences.
6″ of top soil left? I better call my fathers neighbor whose family has been farming the same land for over 100 years and tell him he only has 6″ left. I think he may just laugh at me for the very suggestion. Funny, but I helped him fence in a new pasture a few years ago. I put fence posts down at least 2 or three feet, each time I would bring up rich fertile soil. Hmmmm, you really think 6”?
40 years of oil? Ok,maybe, but that means that every oilman I speak with in my local church (houston area) is lying to me about what’s out there. I will just have to go slap them up now.
Come on guys, there is a need for conservation; but just spouting this kind of false information does no one any good.
By the way, most people who say that the US is the worst polluter and we are the dirtiest society on the earth, have never been to Manila, Beijing, Bangkok or parts of India on any day at lunch. (Ugly).
Mods, This type of discussion is best left for other forums on the web. I for one vote for a close of this thread.
Have a great day!!!
Let’s stay on topic, which is avian influenza.
ty
I think that this is the most interesting and provocative thread that I’ve read so far. Everyone’s comments have caused me to ruminate over the diverse topics subsumed under the original question - what are we really preparing for? As others have mentioned, the end of the world has been predicted many times - the Bubonic Plague, the Depression, the Holocaust, the Nuclear Era. And somehow mankind has survived to accomplish remarkable things - the polio vaccine, trips to the moon, the invention of the disposable diaper (uh, sorry, that’s another thread). I do hope that should TSHTF, those who survive will tackle the issues that confront us with the same energy and dedication as those that preceded us. But I also agree with DennisC who said “we will see both the best and the worst of mankind.” As an historian, I can only hope that we strive to maintain our democratic principles (I always carry a copy of the Declaration of Independence with me, don’t you?) while solving the overwhelming problems of a decimated population, a devastated economy, and an environment in critical need of a fix. Folks, whether we want to or not, whoever survives should be planning to do a whole lot of fixing.
If you look at the topic being covered, it is that some people share a world view that H5N1 may not be the next pandemic, it may be another virus. It may also be a combination of many circumstances. I THINK that knowledge is not too far from the truth. I said I do not want to debate the topics I used as examples of what could motivate people to prep and that is still true. So, I will not point out my sources and take the tread in that direction. Just because you don’t like my example does not mean they are true or false, they are just examples. The focus is what kind of a world and what duration of event and what do you see yourself and your family actually doing after a moderate to severe pandemic? That was what most people are talking about. That subject is what I want to talk about. If any of my examples are true, or even close to true, we have got to think this thru. If it is “just” (my gosh listen to me) a pandemic, then the same issue still needs to be explored. I would like to focus on work, family life, housing, food, energy, government, community, security etc. Look how the middle east went from stable to ethnic cleansing in Iraq in such a short time. (please let’s not debate that because you like/dislike what we did there.) The fact is we may be in for some really drastic things. I got a kick out of history lover - at 14:49…”I always carry a copy of the Declaration of Independence with me, don’t you?” That is great. I remember trying an experiment during one social activism phase of my life…I really did go on the street and try to get people to sign my petition. Most would not, they said it was too radical…It was the Bill of Rights. My point is that we may just forget what our Democracy is about in an emergency. The powers that be may just not give their temporary powers back to the people. Just one musing…see where I am going? Another example, If we run short on energy because of the death of people qualified to run a power plant or an oil well, or fix the Alaska pipeline or any one of a number of key skills, how will you project your living? One thing that came out of this so far is the hand tools thread. I read that and I personally think that if we come up with no other ideas, this thread was a success. It is a great thread. I have those things in my prep lists. A final example, with shortages of all kinds where do you think you can help? What really basic skills would we all need in a post pandemic situation. How can you get them now? Where are all the manuals that make things work? Should we collect them in a PDF form and store them on the Internet? Is that silly? Is that one way to say what I think we should be preparing for…yes it is. The wiki is one focus of the mostly short term to get us thru…the thing I want to do is ask all of you for the longer term perspective and what can we at least see that we may want to have on hand in knowledge, experience, tools, or even many plans to put it all back together, better than it is now. In my opinion, we have failed with the here and now. For those who just want to bait the thread - no dice. I don’t play childish games. I try to stay on topic and only bring in things that can be asserted and left there as that and then respect that others will assert their view and left there at that. But we do need to have some context to this looming pandemic. It is not happening for me and mine in another country, but world politics is a part of the story, so is national politics and the CDC etc. It just should not be a focus nor a debate on those issues here. I may not agree with what you have to say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it (given the permission of the mods of course..grin)..just stay on topic please. Oh, History Lover, I don’t carry a copy with me, but I have memorized the entire document. I had to…it is that good.
Dude, you have brought so much to the wiki! Thank you so much for that! But I have to admit that some of what you say is “political” and “debatable”, and, truly, this is a world wide problem, not one that is confined only to the political debate in the United States. If AF comes to be in its most fierce form, it will be a kind of “ethnic (insert here species, genus, etc.) cleansing” only comparable to that of Hitler or Stalin.
And I hold with Rousseau as well.
Thank you Jefiner - you are very nice. I tend to get excited about things…sorry. I mean well. Of course you are right. One of my favorite reads is Rousseau. Oh, and I will not seek nor run for the Presidencey at this time but if drafted I will be happy to serve. You folks don’t help me stay on topic with stuff like that. grin.
“The Spanish Flu pandemic caused more deaths in a shorter time than in any comparable period in history. The Spanish flu killed more in a year than did the Black Death did from 1347 – 1649; more than the smallpox epidemic of the 16th century, more than the total that AIDS has killed (so far), significantly more than all of WWI, and about as many as the estimated 61 million who died in the six years of WWII.” http://www.arielco.us/page3.html
With the world population 3 times higher the same death rate will kill 3 times as many.
Dude - if your scenraio plays out, you will need lots of hand guns to keep the have-nots from taking your hand tools. That is where the logic has taken me.
Here are just a few reasons that I stay prepared…
“On many of my transcontinental bicycle treks across six continents over the past 30 years, I noticed one repeating aspect of problems in Third World countries: leaders ignore problems until they become irreversible and unsolvable.
Once those problems manifest, citizens in those countries live with the consequences, i.e., they live in misery. What kind of misery?”
http://www.newswithviews.com/Wooldridge/frosty177.htm
“It used to be that only survivalist “cranks” and their sympathizers expounded on ‘the coming economic collapse’ that would devastate society. Intellectually-speaking, people would cross to the other side of the street when they saw such an exponent coming.”
http://www.jpfo.org/wm-beansbullets.htm
“When I used to read about the 1930s — the Italian invasion of Abyssinia, the rise of fascism in Italy, Spain, and Germany, the appeasement in France and Britain, the murderous duplicity of the Soviet Union, and the racist Japanese murdering in China — I never could quite figure out why, during those bleak years, Western Europeans and those in the United States did not speak out and condemn the growing madness, if only to defend the millennia-long promise of Western liberalism.”
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDBhMzg5Mzk4NjQ5MjM5OTJhZjRjMWQ4OWMzNDhmMzk=
In short, there is an overabundance of nuts and no-goods in the world who would all like to be in charge, and far too many people who would be content to allow that to happen.
Dude - You memorized the Declaration of Independence? I’m still trying to remember the names of my kids.
Do kids still have to memorize in school like we used to? We had to memorize the Preamble to the Constitution, the Gettysburg Address, and the first part of the Dec of Independence (minus the Facts list).
History Lover At 14:44: Doesnt everyone? I had only one kid to get around that problem and I still call, “Hey You!” grin. anonymous at 19:20: I hope so, and lots of history too. Create a handle so I know you from all the others who use that tag.
I think self defense is a necessary part of survival. I walk softly, I speak politely, I would walk or run from a fight unless human life were at stake, no words can ever provoke me to violence, but in defense with no other alternative, I am a Vietnam vet. I have guns and training. I am a gentle spirit who hates violence. I have studied judo, aikido, karate, collegiate wrestling, gymnastics and still keep in shape. It makes me a calmer, gentler person who can walk with their head up, and their value for humanity in tack. I have had a total of one personal fight in my entire life…at around 14 or 15. Never had a reason after I grew up so pfwag at 02:19 and Kim at 8:30: I agree. I use the pen before the sword. I speak and do not shout. I wish there were no danger in our cities, but I would not tolerate my streets or my home to be unjustly taken from me or a loved one harmed. I would die in battle first and I would try to make it a very unfair fight.
I think that if our government really wants to try to isolate people as a way to help stop the spread of disease, they are sadly mistaken. No enforced isolation could work. People who prep could stay until their food runs out. If the government wanted to do something constructive (state and federal), then they could stockpile food and make plans to distribute clean water. If we can feed and shelter those who choose to, then the poor souls who do not know better and choose not to shelter will simply die. If they did not choose, or had no choice due to disability to prep and become desperate, I will help if I can, but we all have our ability and limits to do that. I am truly sorry for them. You see whatever comes, I plan to develop a morality that really fits the situation and hope never to loose respect for myself or anyone else. It is part of what I am planning for.
Closed to maintain Forum speed.