Jumping Jack Flash’s excellent Opinion on Keeping the GRID up
NauticalMan – at 23:23
Received an answer back from the manager of my local municipal electric company who I asked the usual questions as to what preps are being made in case of Pandemic. Short answer was as follows:
“During the last year the (town municipal light dept.) has been in training meetings with other Department in the Town of ********* concerning the National Incident Command System, which coordinates Town Departments’ response to emergency situations. I believe the bird flu pandemic, IF (my caps)it effects us, would be handled under the NCIS protocol, which would include coordination with local, state and federal agencies.”
Somehow this does not comfort me given Homeland Securitys performance so far (see Katrina), also latest news that Sec. Chertoff cut the money to be used for security on subway, commuter rail even after incidents in Europe.. YOYO
A request for a scenario
I’m wondering if one or more of the power plant experts would be willing to write a scenario illustrating what would happen to another power plant if ConEd were to go down. In particular, it would be interesting to write it from the perspective of the worst case scenario, ie, a nearby powerplant with no planning and from the perspective the best case scenario, ie, a distant (but still part of the North American grid) power plant with substantial planning. I’m particularly interested in whether the two scenarios would differ.
Thanks in advance.
Monotreme. I’m not an expert in the SCADA system, but a chain is only as strong as it’s weakest link.
JWB – at 22:55
So, if I’m understanding you correctly, you think if ConEd goes down, the whole grid goes down? What I’m trying to determine is if it’s possible for one region of the country to cut themselves off from the rest of the Grid and still function. This happened, perhaps by luck, in the Northeast Blackout of 2003.
So, why couldn’t this happen in the case of a pandemic?
[Note, check out this map. If you live in the red zone, I would not expect to have power during a very severe pandemic].
Monotreme,
The statement that if ConEd goes down, the whole grid goes down? is like asking how and when and where will panflu breakout? It depends….
..The system is so complex and intertwined it is impossible, (IMHO), to work out scenerios. Again, I have limited experience it that…..
….sorry. I wish I had the answers too….
IMHO it would take quite an effort with many people from many organizations to even come close to the answer.
The bottom line is, I expect majors disruptions with everything. Power is no exception.
If there are any lurkers out there that could weigh in, Please do!
In Australia, we can quickly separate a power plant locally from the system so that frequency variations don’t trip generating units. We can also restart each other. The power is diverted and routed by a centralised switching group. Different areas can be blacked out on a rotational basis depending on available load. This can be highly selective in order to keep hospitals supplied and to allow line maintenance. The US will be similar. The main caution is that the system can still fail, as you knowd form experience, if operators get overwhelmed or can’t quickly figure out what’s happening and take action.
In Australia, we can quickly separate a power plant locally from the system so that frequency variations don’t trip generating units. We can also restart each other. The power is diverted and routed by a centralised switching group. Different areas can be blacked out on a rotational basis depending on available load. This can be highly selective in order to keep hospitals supplied and to allow line maintenance. The US will be similar. The main caution is that the system can still fail, as you know from experience, if operators get overwhelmed or can’t quickly figure out what’s happening and take action.
Call of the Wild – at 00:00
Thanks. This is very useful information.
So, in a pandemic, many areas may not have power for some of the time, and some areas may not have power for long periods of time, but it’s possible that areas that have planned ahead for this contingency may have enough power to keep essential services operational. Is this a reasonable suppostion?
Mono at 00:06. Yes. Don’t you go to bed. Looks like past midnight over there.
One possible scenario is that they give higher priority to cities - higher poulations count and greater dependence on elelctricity. If there is no power in major urban areas, you’re asking for big trouble. Outer areas become a lower priority. When I lived overseas in a poor country, this is what they did - the country had little money for energy and most inhabitants couldn’t pay their bills anyway! The capital and major urban areas had power most of the time with some outages, although usually brief. However, go 1/2 an hour outside the capital and villages didn’t have power half the day. They had to keep the capital up for the embassies and big companies otherwise there wouldn’t be more foreign investment.
California already had plenty of expierience with rolling blackouts/brownouts. This may be the way to go to help maintain the system. Hopefully there will be PSA’s saying: “this county will be out from x to y” so people can plan accordingly.
LauraB-
priority is it. we had to wait our turn during the ice storm. people who live on side roads out in the rual areas, where the last to get their power on. People kept calling into the radio station and saying it wasn’t fair. so-so got their power but we didn’t. Prioiry is city first, then they go down the list from there.
Monotreme – at 00:06
JWB is right on target. There is not a clean and clear answer to your very good question, but I don’t think that one can assume that companies that plan ahead for a pandemic may be able to keep up service for essential services. The grid simply does not work like that, especially at the local distribution level.
Further, despite the mechanical/electrical intricacies involved in the daily control of power flows across the grid, some interesting ethical quesitons may also arise. For example, if a coal-fired power plant at ConEd has to be shut down because it runs short of fuel (no fault of the utility company implied here - the railroads may have delivery problems) then automatically the rest of the power plants on the grid will attempt to pick up the load. But if one utility company begins to get really low on power supply, it may be difficult for other interconnected utility companies to “decide” to isolate themselves elctrically and not let their power flow in that direction.
You know, I’m not certain that your question may not be unlike the allocation of scarce antiviral medications. Just because one country plans ahead and stockpiles, and another doesn’t, I wouldn’t automatically assume that the ant leaves the grasshopper in the cold. Very complicated ethical and political issues related to both antivirals and other essential elements like electricity.
Mamabird-
Hi and good morning.
you raised a couple of very good points. I did not know ConEd is a coal-fired power plant. My power company(use to be Niagria Mohawk), now called National Grid, buys hydro electric from the New York Power Authority.
Question: would hydro electric grids last longer staying on, than coal fired power plants? And exactly how intertwined are these to companies?
Monotreme – at 22:29.
It makes little, if any, difference whether a plant tripping is nearby or distant. All generators in the interconnection are connected together. When one trips the rest pick up the slack. The utility that had the unit trip is responsible for replacing the energy from thr tripped unit within 15 minutes so that all the other utilities generator output return to pre event output.
Here’s an analogy. Think of a tandem bicycle that has 100 pedalers. The bicycle is required to maintain same speed. One of the pedalers gets a cramp and quits. The other 99 all have to pedal a little bit harder to make up for the 1. Within 15 minutes the 1 pedaler gets over his cramp and rersumes pedaling. The other 99 return to normal.
Many people think they get their power from the nearest power plant. The handle bars on our bike aren’t being propelled by the pedaler in front, they are being propelled by all the pedalers.
If multiple plants trip in a given area, there may not be enough wires to transport power from other areas of the interconnection even though the other areas have ample generation available. If 20 pedalers on the bike all adjacent to one another get a cramp simultaneously, the chain in that section may be subject to excessive tension and break, especially if going up hill.
cottontop – at 09:23
Hello again. Glad to see your posts.
As to your latest, ConEd, like National Grid, are basically transmission and distribution delivery companies serving NY end use customers. Since 1997, this area has been “deregulated” so that most of the delivery companies no longer actually own and operate power plants as before. As you state, they purchase their power from wholesale generation suppliers or power authorities.
Having said that, the power that the NY businesses and homeowners actually recieve is generally coming from nearby power plants attached to the transmission grid, which may include coal, oil and gas plants, as well as nuclear and hydro. Electricity flows toward the nearest available load along paths of least resistance. So, while National Grid may be buying hydro, the electricity coming onto their system in the way of produced electrons is coming form all over the state.
Therefore, if any one of those plants drops off line, all the others have to quickly pick up the load regardless of who the buyers and sellers of energy may be. Electrons don’t read contracts.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 13:28
Very good visual.
Most seem to be looking at the generation side of the power problem. Realize that the distribution side is also a potential problem. If there is social unrest and urban violence, line, poles, transformers can be down and out. All the preps in the generation control will not help get those lines back up. If the lines are shorted, then entire sections may need to be turned off. How many workers will be willing to go “down town” to fix the lines when there are riots and sickness (possibly dead bodies in the streets)? Would a mob let them work or just take their truck?
I still don’t think that “we” should count on the grid remaining up. I do think that it would be wise for city people to have some electrical storage ability- deep cycle battery and an inverter. That way they can capture some power if it is on intermittently.
DennisC.
I don’t see workers willing to go “down town”. If a distribution line trips, I’d be afraid those folks will be out of luck.
The ultra critical load is water and sewer. Failed distribution lines feeding residential customers is not a civilization buster. It’s very bad news for those customers, but not catastrophic for EVERYONE.
Total system failure for extended period spells 90+% mortality for general populace.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 15:43
The water pumps and sewer lifts are on the same circuits as residential customers. They are all intermingled. Others likely to be on a distribution circuit would include, among other types, service stations, hospitals, schools, churches, grocery stores and street signal lights. That is why it is so difficult to allocate scarce energy resources to priority or critical need customers. Everyone is on the distribution system.
Failed distribution lines feeding residential customers will likely take out many other loads that society really, really needs to stay normal.
Mamabird – at 16:01
“Failed distribution lines feeding residential customers will likely take out many other loads “
Exactly, That is why just focusing on the generation side will not keep the grid up. Again, I just don’t see anyway to trust that the grid will stay up if the pan flu hits this winter. There is just not enough time to rewire, store supplies, and receive backup equipment and so- even if we wanted to.
If TBTB are serious, they would assure that critical services (hospitals, water treatment, sewage..) would be on dedicated supply lines- but that would be a major task. Just think of all the extra wires that would have to be routed.
Again, in my humble opinion, it is much more likely that we will see loss of power than it is that the grid will stay up all the time- IF there is much more than a 5% death rate. But I also think there will be lots of rotating blackouts. So plan for it- buy a deep cycle marine battery, a battery charger and an inverter. That way you will at least be able to capture some small amount of power during times of “lights on”.
Major water and sewer treatment facilities typically have dedicated feeders. Distribution lines that serve both residential smaller water and sewer treatment facilities could be stripped of non vital load.
My concern is that the bcrats would not have the fortitude to ration power serving only critical infrastructure loads until it becomes apparent that fuel won’t last and can’t be delivered. My graver concern is fuel being squandered on polital correctness until there’s NONE - not even enough for critical infrastructure.
THAT’S when we’re in deep sh*t.
I hate to add to an already massive problem, but the communication system will be hit also. Regular phone lines, cell phone towers, the internet, different radio channels between companies. It seems that it would be nearly impossible to coordinate ANY effort.
ICS700/800 is the National Incident Command System.
I’m certified in both by DHS.
It’s based on ICS which was developed by fire commanders in california in the late 70′s to manage large wildfires.
It’s a MUTUAL AID system for managing resources. Nothing more.
We have already been told “you are on your own”.
THERE WILL BE NO MUTUAL AID
LET ME REPEAT THAT
THERE WILL BE NO MUTUAL AID
A pandemic, be definition, is a GLOBAL SIMULTANEOUS event.
To put forth to the public that you are prepared by reason of taking a couple if FEMA classes is worse than criminal.
Regarding the grid.
The United States does NOT have a national grid.
They have several regional grids, with VERY LIMITED interconnect pathways between them. None sufficient enough to move energy between regions.
So like the NorthEast blackout, it’s a regional problem.
Areas like Texas may stay up due to fuel availability, while areas like California (a net importer of electricity) may go down and stay down for quite a while until they can be restarted with outside power whenever that comes available.
Which area in the US is more resilient, ecological, etc? Will Nature give us time to compete?
Bird Guano – at 18:16
Be prepared to repeat the several grids statement as more and more people jump into the discussion. ;-)
It’s been awile since I had any conversations with any Sparky’s about Scada. What problems with that do any of you see as far as data lines being subject to disruption ?
JWB – at 19:49
Depends on the SCADA pathway. Some utilities have phone lines, T1 connections, others have private fiber, some sattelite. A mixed bag in other words. Without the signals, put personnel in substations.
Mamabird – at 20:43
The personnel in substations, would you propose using satellite phones? They should work, I think. Also, would the substations need to be retroffited with any additional instrumentation?
I’ve asked this question several times, but I’m still not sure of the answer: Can one region of the country disconnect themselves from the rest of the Grid and continue to function? I think the answer to this question is yes. If I’m wrong could someone please explain why.
Here’s a scenario: Texas does extensive prepping, including their power plants. The rest of the country does nothing. A pandemic with a high CFR starts. Power plants all over the country start to go down, but not in Texas. The Texas governor quickly realizes that all the power produced in his state is flowing to doomed states. He orders connections from the Texas power lines to the other regions cut, thus containing all the electricity produced by powerplants in Texas to Texas. I’m sure I’ve the terminology wrong, but is something like this possible? I realize this might not work at the state level, but would it work at any level - city or region?
I’ve mentioned this in the other power thread, but this link about the 2003 NorthEastern North American blackout is quite illuminating, so to speak. Rather large .pdf file, because of all the pertinent graphics about regions and control areas, etc.
Will – at 21:20
I’ll look at the pdf, but do you have a yes or no answer to my question? Is this something too sensitive to address directly? I know nothing about Grid politics. I’m starting to wonder if I’m stepping in something no-one wants to talk about.
Monotreme – at 21:06
Sorry for all the confusion,M, but the short answer is: of course, one region can, or one utility company, or one section of a state, city or subdivision can electricall isolate itself from the rest of the grid.
But that is a simplification that ignors supply and purchase contracts, reliability council rules of operation, Federal Regulatory Commission rules of operation, and all the ethical and political issues that are involved. The social ramifications of making that move could be disasterous and affect the lives of millions of people.
FYI. Texas is probably a bad example in some respects because it is an electrical island within the US grid. Texas has no asynchronous electrical connections with any other state. Power does not flow in or out of Texas without some level of effort. There are, I think, three direct current ties connecting Texas with other systems, but power flows across such unique equipment have to be scheduled and made with good coordination of other systems. So, if a power system got into trouble in Oklahoma or Louisiana, power would not automatically move toward that load from Texas like an interconnected alternating current system would allow.
Having said that, utility companies within a given electric region can isolate themselves from other utilities in the same region. SCADA stands for “system control and data acquisition”, meaning that not only can you monitor the flow of power across the grid, but you can also activate various electrical switches at any substation or switchyard to affect those power flows. But simply throwing switches to isolate oneself for others’ problems is nether prudent or responsible.
The ant can turn the grasshopper away and sit snug within his own little world, but there will be hell to pay later, especially if people are put into desperate straits as a result. Someone other than the CEO of the utilities will have to make those calls.
Power going between regions is easy to cut off.
From the pdf Will listed at 21:20:
While the power system in North America is commonly referred to as “the grid” there are actually three distinct power grids or “interconnections” (Figure 2.2). The Eastern Interconnnection includes the eastern two-thirds of the continental United States and Canada from Saskatchewan east to the Maritime Provinces. The Western Internconnection includes the western third of the continental United States (excluding Alaska), the Candadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, and portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico. The third interconnection comprises most of the state of Texas. The three interconnections are electrically independent from each other except for a few small direct current (DC) ties that link them. Within each interconnection, electricity is porduced the instant it is used, and flows over virtually all transmission lines from generators to loads.
OK, so it looks like Texas was a good choice. Seems to me that if Texas prepared, they could could disable the few small DC ties that link them to the other two interconnections. 380 million barrels of crude oil are stored in salt domes in Texas. Refineries are in Texas. Seems to that keeping Texas electrified should be very doable, regardless of what the rest of the country does.
Anyone disagree?
I just thought of something else.
I really do not want to keep playing the devils advocate, but….
The intentions of this thread, from my perspective, is to keep the water treatment plants operating (electric power) and the sewer systems in the areas of large populations operating, as a minimum. OK hospitals too, etc.
My concern is this, if a wave hits during a cold winter, it won’t matter if the water plants are operating if the homes, factories, chem plants, and skyscrapers don’t have power. There will be so many frozen and burst water pipes the water pressure will disappear.
With that said the southern states with non-fossil fuel power plants have the only chance, IMHO.
I’m still thinking……
Mamabird and Call of the Wild,
Thanks for answering my question. My post at 22:02 crossed yours.
You should know that I think a very severe pandemic (CFR over 5%) is likely. If this occurs, many people think most megacities will melt down. I have also noticed that some cities and states are much better prepared than others. As I’m sure you’re aware, without electricity, lots of people will die very quickly. My hunch is that regions that are well-prepared will take care of their own rather send their electricity elsewhere. Whether this is ethical or not is another question.
Monotreme – at 22:02
It seems to me that Texas is probably in a pretty good situation for the most part for some of the reasons you stated. However, please be aware that at least a half a dozen very large power plants rely on Powder River Basin Montana coal that daily comes by rail to the state. If the railroads run low on diesel, or the pandemic takes out their engineers, then the coal deliveries will be seriously affected.
Now I fully realize that many posting to this thread and on the opinion link believe that proactive, intelligent utility management should be stockpiling coal like gangbusters in preparation for the pending disaster, but the cost and logistics of that reaction can take you only so far. Even assuming that you had the space and the money to begin stockpiling coal, the ability of the mines and the railroads to get you a sufficient stockpile would be herculean.
None of us like those type of answers, but America is run on just-in-time inventories and right-sized staffs. And its not just utility companies. The normal grocery chain does’t heve anywhere near the stockpile of groceries to deal with a pandemic event as the utility companies have in coal and fuel oil.
But if Texas has a vulnerability or concern, it is probably natural gas supplies. Although you can store some gas, it is quite small compared to the amount of daily consumption. So, if production in the fields is shut down, or the pipelines are affected in some other way, Texas is toast. Those DC ties are small. If Texas needs power, its historical isolation from the rest of the country will become a liablity instead of an asset.
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Comment
Lucky Texans.
I can imagine that the highest authority in our countries will attempt to use their emergency powers to direct what they think should happen, for a while at least. That is, try and send the electricity everywhere.
When I first started reading about this PF topic I didn’t have a clue about organised prepping and SIP but it made sense when I thought about the likelihood of quarantine orders.
I did all that was called for, for a 3 months SIP as I can see that we have a credible risk of having to use it, regardless of what governments want as an outcome.
Eventually each of us has to question how much we depend on others to do for us. The government is under no real obligation to foresee everything and save us from ourselves; which I guess is one of the things I get from this site. Sadly, a war and welfare mindset has conditioned a lot of people to think that an omniscient goverment will provide. I think your own US Gov’t said it best - YOYO.
Mamabird – at 22:17
A little proactive planning ought to be able to keep the coal coming,or so I’ve heard. Apparently, there aren’t a huge number of people involved in loading or transporting it. Where does Texas get it’s natural gas? Is it produced in Texas?
Sounds like Montana might be able to keep it’s coal power plants going. Do you agree?
hi folks.
i’ll respond once i get achance to catchup.
Monotreme – at 22:08
A case fatality ratio of 5%, plus, will be a disaster for everyone, period. Utilities can not plan on that basis. It’s a non-starter IMO. Too much happens when that many people die. For example, even if the CFR is .5%, if the pandemic hits and people panic, American infrastructure begins to quickly get impacted. Just the decision to close schools will immediately wipe out 25% of the workforce. Add to that all those other folks that are sick, and others that SIP, and the absentee rate quickly escalates to 40% and 50%.
Keeping American infrastructure intact at those levels is probably doable, and lots of work is going on to plan for that. But at 5% CFR, fear and panic take over and there are no workers, there is no public transportation, there is no social order anymore. Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
C o t W – at 22:21
I think most Fluwikians will be able to take of themselves and their families. The problem is, if you live in an area where no-one else has prepared, your preps will do you little good if eseential services collapse. I’m trying to figure out which regions of the US have the best chance of keeping some semblance of civilisation going, even with a high CFR. This calculation will include: percent of the population that preps, access to water, access to food, and access to energy. For New York City, the score is close to zero. For other areas, the score may be much higher. I contend it is worth knowing the score for different cities.
Mamabird – at 22:27
But at 5% CFR, fear and panic take over
This is why it is so important to warn people now so they know what to expect. I won’t panic if this happens, I don’t think everyone else will either.
there are no workers
We only need the essential workers. We do need to protect them.
there is no public transportation
That’s a good thing.
there is no social order anymore.
That depends. If people have power, food and water, there is no reason for them to riot. And if they do, shoot-to-kill orders would be entirely appropriate.
Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
Not for me. I still think intelligent planning can keep things going. If there is no national leadership on this, then regional leadership will have to do. And there are leaders at the regional level who are doing st least some planning. Seattle, Fort Wayne and Aspen, to name a few.
Monotreme – at 22:24
It is also my understanding that coal mining and transportation is not labor intensive. Howeve, if there are x personnel operating the mines, and y personnel running the trains, and everthing is just-in-time, a clinical infection rate of 25% will mean that a goodly amount of coal may no longer be delivered. Now if by proactive planning you are suggesting that all those companies hire more people and train them to operate the equipment without any remmuneration or profit incentive, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The likely outcome will be that former operators that are now supervisors will attempt to fill in where possible.
As to Montana, does anyone live up there besides the coal miner’s? I would expect their electrical demand to be drop in the bucket. Probably could be handled quite nicely by burning buffalo chip. JUST KIDDIN GUYS!!! All in fun to lighten up an otherwise downer of a conversation.
As to where Texas power plants obtain their gas, again it is like electricity suppliers and purchasers, it is a commodity market with buyers and sellers all over the world. Physically, the gas flows toward the demand, just like electricity, regardless of who sold to whom. BTUs don’t read contracts. A hugh portion of America’s supply of gas, including Texas comes off shore wells. That’s why the threat of hurricanes drives up the forward spot prices of gas every year. But the BTUs of gas that run a plant in Dallas may come from El Paso one day, Louisana the next, and off shore Texas the day after that.
Monotreme. I agree with trying to figure out the survivable zones. I’m an optimist. I believe creativity can solve any problem.
However, presently, I am overwhelmed at our situation. As we explore, think, and communicate about this sinking boat we are in and how to plug the holes, more holes become apparent.
Monotreme – at 22:38
there are no workers
We only need the essential workers. We do need to protect them.
I’ve stated this before long ago in another thread,
If a business could actually operate with 30% of it’s workforce gone, IT WOULD ALREADY BE DOING IT!
Mamabird – at 22:43
a clinical infection rate of 25% will mean that a goodly amount of coal may no longer be delivered.
By proactive planning, I mean protecting coal workers from getting infected in the first place. Teach them social distancing strategies, buy them N-100 respirators, etc. Give them prophylactic tamiflu, if necessary. And high priority for vaccine, when it’s available.
As to Montana, does anyone live up there besides the coal miner’s?
Just the Mayors of NYC, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles after the pandemic starts. Not sure I am kidding. I have argued before that a severe pandemic may radically shift power in the US away from the coasts to the middle of the country. I see no reason to change that assessment.
It still sounds like most of the natural gas used in Texas, comes from Texas. I imagine those pipelines can controlled as well.
Monotreme – at 22:38
“And there are leaders at the regional level who are doing st least some planning. Seattle, Fort Wayne and Aspen, to name a few.”
I suspect Aspen will do what Gunnisen, CO did in 1918. Protective Sequestration and Manadated Quarantine for anyone interested in visiting.
I like that idea. Not sure that it will be very effective for Houston, the petrochemical capital of the US. It’s an international city with workers and contractors from all over the world that have to show up and turn the cranks.
30$ worker outage or higher and there is great likelyhood of oil stopping. From the drilling rigs and refineries to your local gas station. No oil = no gas. No gas = no transportation, farming, manufacturing, power, clean water.
If the oil flows we should be able to deal with things better. If the oil stops? we are screwed.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to scream my last sentence there. It is just so damn frustrating to me when I hear about plannning for a 30% to 50% workforce outage and this crap of cross training. That MIGHT work at a McDonalds. But that’s about it.
wikipediea could likely do a much better job of explaining the 4 n american interconnections than i could.
our intent is to keep power flowing. nerc is the starting point.
JWB
However, presently, I am overwhelmed at our situation. As we explore, think, and communicate about this sinking boat we are in and how to plug the holes, more holes become apparent.
Yes, it doesn’t look good. But if we don’t try to plan some way around the problems, no-one else will.
If a business could actually operate with 30% of it’s workforce gone, IT WOULD ALREADY BE DOING IT!
I didn’t mean that some of the power plant workers weren’t essential, I meant that most of the non-essential workers, ie, McDonald’s workers, pet psychics and hair-dressers don’t need to come to work. I understand your frustration.
Monotreme,
30% of the powerplant workers will not be there. Minimum.
Note to self: Time to stuff the emotions in a jar and get back on the thread subject. OK. I found my list….
1) Take 3 long deep breaths.
2) Say a prayer.
3) Figure out the power problem, if only for one plant, for one area.
nerc is the starting point
Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:25
I agree.
I think our paradigm needs a major shift..
Let’s go backwards. Forget the grids. Forget the cities.
Pick one powerstation that could possible stand alone.
How could that be done?
We lived in Micronesia for awhile and I was always amazed at the ingenuity of people who survived on not much — one thing you saw in certain neighborhoods was a ratsnest of extension cords hanging down from a power pole ---some brave (foolish?) fellow would climb up the pole and figure out how to tap into the power and the whole neighborhood would have power for TV’s and lights. The power company was forever demolishing these operations but they just sprang up again in a week or two. I have no idea what the mortality rate was among the power tappers.
A fellow who lived through WWII in Germany told me about vehicles that were transformed into wood burning units. If you brought firewood, you could get a ride into town.
Given human ingenuity, it may not be CFR alone that determines outcome — a mild winter with frequent (but not constant) rain might make a big difference. Grasping at straws here, but, honestly, so much of the world lives without any electricity at all
Monotreme,
To answer an earlier question, yes Texas has it’s own region ERCOT.
Good News: Texas can manage it’s power independently, with the Governor making a call if needed. Bad News: It’s coal fired power plants rely on coal imported from out of state. Good News: There is substantial wind power generation in Texas (Green Mountain) Bad News: Wind power is not dispatchable, and only accounts for a fraction of electricity consumed.
Expect the Governor to outlaw A/C and other energy hogs during a crisis.
JWB – at 23:40 I think our paradigm needs a major shift … Let’s go backwards. Forget the grids. Forget the cities. Pick one powerstation that could possible stand alone. How could that be done?
You’ve had some hours to think it over (devilish grin): what do you think?
Seriously, we do need to do this “paradigm shift” trick much more often. There are ways to do it more or less consistently, like asking a few questions systematically. There was this engineer who asked “why?” about five times: why did the water flow? why did the pipe leak? why did the maintenance crew not notice it? etc. These questions can be asked by amateurs, but are best answered by people in the know.
http://www.kk.org/cooltools/archives/001425.php (the Boeing story and some essentials of mindmapping.)
I had earlier posited Texas as the probable National Redoubt in the event of a severe pandemic. If panflu hits this Fall or Winter this option will be our only recourse. As a National Redoubt it could help relight the grid elsewhere in the nation after panflu has passed.
It has the stand-alone grid.
It has many refineries.
Louisiana nearby has the strategic national oil reserve that could be tapped by foraying in with armed force. (Fort Hood is located in Texas).
It has ample port facilities for the limited commerce that is necessary and posssible, (the exchange of critical spare parts, etc.). And, of course, the major airports for the same.
The weather is balmy most of the winter (compared to the rest of the nation). And the hot weather during the summer can be endured by most.
It is a major wheat-growing area of the country. Wheat is a weed, it generally survives all but the harshest of conditions. And the cattle industry is one of the largest in the nation.
It is centrally located for excursions outward in force to get the rest of the country back up and running.
(I do not live in Texas. So this is not a self-serving proposition. I may not survive, but I want my country and civilization to survive).
Will – at 07:58
If I were the governor of Texas, I would make friends with the Governor of Montana and the Governors of all the states that the coal trains run through from Montana to Texas. I can imagine a number of the Central states playing “Let’s make a deal”. Agriculture states might trade food for diesel, etc.
The influx of refugees from the surrounding states and Mexico will certainly be a major issue to deal with.
This thread is causing my cerebral grid to collapse.
Me thinks to lurk elsewhere for a break.
(What would Monotreme tell the govenors of the New England states to do?…hm…)
Closed for length and continued here
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