Continued from here
Medical Maven – at 10:15
I had earlier posited Texas as the probable National Redoubt in the event of a severe pandemic. If panflu hits this Fall or Winter this option will be our only recourse. As a National Redoubt it could help relight the grid elsewhere in the nation after panflu has passed.
It has the stand-alone grid.
It has many refineries.
Louisiana nearby has the strategic national oil reserve that could be tapped by foraying in with armed force. (Fort Hood is located in Texas).
It has ample port facilities for the limited commerce that is necessary and posssible, (the exchange of critical spare parts, etc.). And, of course, the major airports for the same.
The weather is balmy most of the winter (compared to the rest of the nation). And the hot weather during the summer can be endured by most.
It is a major wheat-growing area of the country. Wheat is a weed, it generally survives all but the harshest of conditions. And the cattle industry is one of the largest in the nation.
It is centrally located for excursions outward in force to get the rest of the country back up and running.
(I do not live in Texas. So this is not a self-serving proposition. I may not survive, but I want my country and civilization to survive).
Monotreme – at 10:18
Will – at 07:58 If I were the governor of Texas, I would make friends with the Governor of Montana and the Governors of all the states that the coal trains run through from Montana to Texas. I can imagine a number of the Central states playing “Let’s make a deal”. Agriculture states might trade food for diesel, etc.
JWB – at 11:26
The influx of refugees from the surrounding states and Mexico will certainly be a major issue to deal with.
JWB – at 11:42
This thread is causing my cerebral grid to collapse.
Me thinks to lurk elsewhere for a break.
crfullmoon – at 12:37
(What would Monotreme tell the govenors of the New England states to do?…hm…)
Will at 7:58 - regarding the coal in Texas…actually we do have some coal mining in Texas. I was told by my electricity provider rep that my local power plant gets their coal from a mine less than 30 miles away from here.
More information on coal mines in Texas: I checked out several sites online and came up with:
Texas ranks either 5th or 6th in US coal production(depending on the site)
Texas mines produce 2/3 of the coal consumed in Texas
The biggest problem that I see is that the mines are located in the northeast, east and southern parts of the state. Texas is a big state and is may be difficult to get the coal to the west and north portions of the state, if indeed, those power plants are coal fueled.
Also, since we don’t produce all of the coal we use, conservation would be key.
Any information on what would happen to natural gas in Texas? I was also told that some of the plants around here used natural gas, and it is how most people heat their homes.
Watching in Texas – at 17:04
Southeastern Oklahoma has a large amount of coal. The only problem is that much of it is high sulfer content coal (not an issue during a pandemic). It has been mined off and on since the late 1800s. Most of it is surface mining. There are still two huge strip mining machines east of Wilburton, Oklahoma that appear to be in good shape and probably have been kept up in running order.
Also, in this same area is a huge reservoir of deep natural gas that has been discovered in the past few years and exploration has been booming.
In other words, oil, natural gas and coal are in fairly good supply in the south-central portion of the U.S. I think Medical Maven’s National Redoubt idea has much merit. At least one are of the country must remain viable to be the catalyst to rebuild the rest of the country if a severe pandemic were to occur.
Watching in Texas – at 17:04
The term “coal” is sometimes used very liberally. The Powder River Basin Wyoming coal that true coal-fired power plants in Texas use is high BTU (heat content), low sulfpur bituminous coal. The “coal” in Texas is actuall Lignite, a very low BTU product that is many times refered to as “glorified dirt”. Only very specialized power plants owened by TXU can digest that stuff. And the byproducts require special handling.
In other words, the coal-fired plants in south and central Texas could not possibly burn the Texas “coal”. Not an option. If the railroads don’t operate at full capactiy or the Montana mines are at partial production, the Texas stockpile of coal goes down fast. Even if Lignite could be somehow transported to those plants, no one in their right mind would attempt to fire up the boilers with it.
In this area during the 1918 pandemic, they could not keep the mines running because of ill and deceased miners. In this day of automated machinery and specialized jobs, it would be even worse. I don’t see how the power plants here will be able to keep running, they simply do not have the stockpiles to do it and it would take years to get ahead.
Watching in Texas – at 17:04
“I was also told that some of the plants around here used natural gas, and it is how most people heat their homes.”
The vast majority of all electrical power consumed in Texas is from gas-fired power plants. Most of the homes in Texas use natural gas for heating. Those homes and businesses that use electricity to heat for heating obviously must rely on those gas-fired power plants.
HillBilly Bill – at 19:09
Dead on.
Mamabird - I am in East Texas and TXU is prevelant in this area, so perhaps that explains it - our local power plants are geared up to burn the lignite.
What do you think the chances are of natural gas staying up and running?
Hello Mamabird-
I would like to ask you a question, out of pure curosity. What do you do for a living? You are very knowledgeable in this area, and I just had to ask. Also do you live in texas? If so, what part? Hope you don’t mind me asking.
Watching in Texas – at 19:51
What do you think the chances are of natural gas staying up and running?
Slim to none.
Actually, none to worse.
For sometime I’ve been thinking about all the chem and storage plants. If no one is there to keep an eye on on things, we will have multiple events of leaks and explosions. You don’t just flip an off switch at these places and everybody goes home for 3 months. Shut down is an orderly process.
If it is done quickly (if at all) because of a killer virus sweeping the globe therer will be one hell of lot of events.
Remember the industrial places that were burning At N. Orleans during Katrina? Multiply that by the hundreds.
And hundreds is a best case. More likely thousands.
JWB - well, it’s what I thought someone would say, but I still don’t like hearing it;-)
Perhaps I better reassess my firewood stockpile!
JWB – at 11:26
The influx of refugees from the surrounding states and Mexico will certainly be a major issue to deal with.
This is a little off topic, but I don’t think this will be the problem that many have suggested. Most people who come to the US from Mexico come looking for jobs. Oftentimes, they leave their families behind in small villages. In a pandemic, there won’t be alot of jobs available, so that draw will be gone. Where would you rather be during a pandemic, in a crowded apartment building in Houston, or in a small village in Mexico with your family? Where they have been taking care of there basic needs with little technolgy for hundreds of years. I suspect that when TSHTF, many migrants will be trying very hard to get back to Mexico.
As regards the surrounding states, where would the refugees be coming from: Oklahoma? Okieman seems to think they’ll do pretty good. Louisianna? They’ve got half of the US petroleum reserves are the major producers of rice in the US. New Mexico? Well, maybe, but it’s a long walk from Santa Fe to Dallas.
crfullmoon – at 12:37
I’d tell them they better start pushing hard for a national stategy to deal with a very severe pandemic or they will be on their own. Boston is going to be in big trouble during a pandemic. They are not anywhere near ready to deal this. Further, I don’t think they have the resources to deal with it after it starts. Connecticut will have to deal with an influx of New Yorkers who will move north after NYC collapses, which will definitely happen if the CFR is 5% or higher. They are currently doing absoulutely nothing to prepare for this.
The entire Northeast will be in very bad shape if a severe pandemic occurs this winter. Unlike Texas, they have little useful resources to rely on. And they won’t have much to offer the states that do have resources. I fear that without a national plan, it will be every state for itself. And New England doesn’t have very much going for it in this scenario.
Maine and some of the remote regions of Vermont and New Hampshire might have a fighting chance if they can keep some of their power plants operational. I don’t know how likely that is.
Overall, I am more optimistic after reading the comments on this thread. Really. If Texans prepare now, I think they could ride out even a very severe pandemic regardless of what the rest of the country does. To keep things going, they don’t need to provide electricity for every single house and business 24/7. The most important thing is the refineries. If they can keep these going, then they can continue to refine diesel which will allow food to be harvested. They will also need enough electricity to keep the water flowing and to process food. Air conditioning is a luxury most people can live without. As regards heating in Texas. Please. Put on a sweater and call your winter preps done.
So, even if Texas loses alot of their coal, I expect they will be able to continue to function fairly well. As long as people have food and water, I don’t seen any reason why events should start happening. Put some Texas Rangers on the job. They’ll discourage any nonsense.
All in all, I think Texas has an excellent chances of coming out of a pandemic in pretty good shape. But they do need to start fit testing respirators for essential workers, right now.
Monotreme: Who in your average small town would know how to fit respirators on the critical workers? Would that be something the public health officers know how to do? Would nurses have this knowledge?
Monotreme – at 21:40
“As regards the surrounding states, where would the refugees be coming from: Oklahoma? Okieman seems to think they’ll do pretty good.”
“Doing pretty good” is only relative when compared to the high population density areas of the country. I think the Oklahoma pandemic plan is abysmal, unless it has changed since last time I took a look at it. If a severe pandemic occurs I think we will all do terribly, as will most of the country. Just that some parts of the country will do less terribly than others. Oklahoma might be one of those “less terrible” places. I think the country folks and small town folks in Oklahoma are very tough and resilient under adversity. We will muddle through and endure as we have always done.
Mamabird – at 19:01
You got me thinking about the coal in SE Oklahoma. Think I will take a looksee concerning the quality of our coal. I suspect it is lignite also. I always thought it could be used, but just more of it would have to be used, and the sulfur/air pollution issue would have to be overlooked during a pandemic. Maybe I was wrong. Learn something every day. Thanks for the in-sights.
Well, much of our coal in Oklahoma is bituminous coal. Here are a couple of websites that address coal production in Oklahoma if anyone is interested enough to take a look.
Pixie – at 22:09
Who in your average small town would know how to fit respirators on the critical workers? Would that be something the public health officers know how to do? Would nurses have this knowledge?
Excellent question. There are several levels of fit-testing. The most basic is found in instructions that come with the respirators (at least the ones I bought). The next level is to be in a room where someone breaks open a capsule with a very strong and distinct odor. If you can smell it, there’s a leak. The highest level of fit-testing requires a special machine. Traveling fit-testers come to major hospitals with this machine and charge big bucks for their services. The basic goal is to find the right mask that fits your face and to learn how to put it on properly. And then to order lots of the exact mask that works for you.
Presumably the highest level fit-testing would be the best, but docs and nurses used the second level for a long time. I would talk to infectious disease or pulmonary HCWs, if you can. They need to be fit-tested if they work with TB patients. There is a very nasty strain of TB going around right now.
If your local hospital doesn’t have this expertise, I would try a tertiary care/academic hospital.
Okieman – at 22:14
I didn’t mean to imply that a pandemic would be a day at the beach, anywhere. But, I think the central states, including Oklahoma, have an excellent chance of keeping the basics of civilisation going, even in a very severe pandemic. I am not so optimistic about the Northeast or California.
Hi Monotreme, what are your thoughts on California, regarding the chances of keeping the basics of civilisation going in that (this) state?
I haven’t heard much discussion ref watering livestock. And grazing pastures need to be rotated on and off of as they get consumed, so they can’t be counted upon to help/compensate for feed not being delivered/available. How do milk cows react to not being milked (aside from the thoughts ref them surviving to be able to be milked). Here is another massive source of decay to contend with as herds die off.
LEG – at 22:47
As an ex-dairyfarmer I can tell you that dairy cows react terribly when not milked. Their production will immediately start to go down and many will start to develop mastitis (infection of the udder). If electricity is off for any extended period of time dairy production will plummet. Do not count on fresh milk unless you own a cow or your neighbor owns a cow (or dairy goat) that can be milked by hand.
LEG,
Most stock cattle (cows on pasture) in Oklahoma get their water from ponds, creeks or windmill driven wells. This usually would not be an issue, except for the drought we are experiencing has caused many of the ponds and creeks to go dry or be very low. Hopefully this fall and winter will bring some much needed rain.
Keeping feedlot cattle should stop in the event of a severe pandemic. The need for water, tranportation of feed, and the possible need of corn for human consumption should make it prohibitive.
Mostly I was mourning the losses of the animals that logically are to be anticipated. So many levels of consequence.
Monotreme – at 21:40
Perhaps tomorrow we shall chat.
Monotreme at 22:00 - my electricity rep said that they would shut off power to “non-essential” businesses in order to get the power to the water plants, hospitals, fire stations, etc. He said that a lot of those types of places would likely be closed anyway, such as movie theaters, shopping malls, schools, etc. Water is their first priority, followed by first responders (fire, police, ambulance), then hospitals, nursing homes and residences.
As far as the put a sweater on for winter preps in Texas, you might want to do a tad more than that in the Panhandle, they get pretty darn cold there;-). But, the good thing about winter in Texas is that it can be 20 degrees on Monday and 60 by Wednesday, as opposed to being 20 in October and finally getting into the 60′s by May!
I am still preparing for no power, but this thread has made me a little more hopeful.
That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:45
…what are your thoughts on California, regarding the chances of keeping the basics of civilisation going in that (this) state?
In the case of a very severe pandemic, very poor, sorry. People won’t freeze to death, but that’s the most you can say. The California panflu plan is inadequate. The person who wrote it drank the CDC mild panflu koolaid.
Perhaps someone more knowledgeable can comment on California’s energy situation, but I’ve heard there are brownouts and blackouts, right now. California currently produces alot of food, but that is dependent on irrigation, or so I’ve heard. Much of that irrigation is dependent on electricity. So, if California loses power, they lose their crops. Also, fresh water is not so easy to find in California near the major cities. The biggest concern will be security. If food and water are disrupted, I don’t think it will be long before there are major civil disturbances. The fires will not be put out. People will then try to leave the major cities. Due to the high density of cities with big populations, I would expect most of the state will be overun with hungry people looking for resources that don’t exist.
Watching in Texas – at 07:52
That’s interesting.
Electricity reps (Retail Electric Providers) in Texas have no statutory authority to disconnect service to anyone except for the non-payment of bills. In addition, it is the distribution service providers, not the reps, that physically shut off power to homes and businesses and control the flow of power across the grid. They also have no authority to disconnect service to anyone except through a disconnect for non-pay transaction from the rep, or in cases of emergency (to protect emergency personnel fighting a fire for example).
As to priorities, although the reps do have the capability to designate certain customers as “critical”, very few customers have been so designated. The prioritization of service has been long established by the Emergency Operation Plans of the distribution service providers as approved by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and long excercised in response to hurricanes, ice storms and other natural disasters. The reps have no editiorial powers related to those priority plans.
For authoritative information on such matters as discussed above, please do not count on my statements. Contact the Public Utility Commission. They should be able to provide sound answers to your questions. Emergency Operation Plans are typically available to the public.
JWB – at 00:41
OK.
Watching in Texas – at 07:52
my electricity rep said that they would shut off power to “non-essential” businesses in order to get the power to the water plants, hospitals, fire stations, etc.
That’s great news. Presumably, this would occur to local PTB after a severe pandemic began, but it’s best to have a plan ahead of time.
As far as the put a sweater on for winter preps in Texas, you might want to do a tad more than that in the Panhandle, they get pretty darn cold there;-).
It’s all a matter of perspective. Some people consider 20 degrees above zero sweater weather. They don’t reach for the down jacket until it gets below zero.
I am still preparing for no power, but this thread has made me a little more hopeful.
Me too.
Mamabird - yep it is interesting, cause he sure did seem sure of that priority list! Would any of the rules and regs change in the event of a national emergency? BTW, are you in the industry?
Monotreme – at 09:34
California is a unique place on the globe. For many decades they have been less than supportive toward the constuction of new power plants (NIMBY - not in my back yard). In addition, they rely heavily on hydro which, during low rainy and snow seasons, can be less than reliable.
In summary, there are times when California must transport large quantities of power across the transmission grid from other states to serve their citizens. There have been occassions when those lines get so overloaded with heat that they begin to sag lower and lower to the ground, and may come into contact with trees causing severe faults and loss of the line. There are, of course, other reasons that the transmission system can fail, but the point is, when you are dependent on others for essential services like California is for power, you are vulnerable.
Mamabird – at 09:35
I haven’t reviewed the most recent Texas Panflu plan yet, but in some states, governors have pretty sweeping powers during a pandemic. Perhaps there have already been private discussions as to what will happen in a severe pandemic in Texas. I don’t think all the measures that have been considered are public.
Mamabird – at 09:44
There are, of course, other reasons that the transmission system can fail, but the point is, when you are dependent on others for essential services like California is for power, you are vulnerable.
Yes, this has slowly become clear to me as a result of this thread. Although a very severe pandemic will be challenging for every community, states or regions that have their own source of energy are going to be in a much better situation that states and regions that don’t.’
btw, thanks for your participation. I’ve learned alot from your posts.
WIT - yes, these rules would change exactly as if a hurricane hit Texas. The Governor would immediately declare martial law and order in the Guard.
As to refineries, the ones in my area have already (according to someone I know who works in a local refinery) equipped their workers with PPE’s. It is my understanding they will “lock down” their refineries the same as with a hurricane. Essential personnel will report and will remain for the duration.
Watching in Texas – at 09:43
“Would any of the rules and regs change in the event of a national emergency?”
Good question. At this stage of the game, I don’t think anyone knows what will happen since little in the way of formal planning has been completed at the Federal and state levels related to this issue. To my knowledge the Ferderal Energy Regulatory Authority (FERC), and the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have only general guidelines for pandemic planning, but no clear cut answers to your very specific questions and concerns.
As to Texas, the Electric Reliability Council (ERCOT) will be holding its first planning session at the end of this month, and therefore has no guidelines for pandemic response.
But having said that, please be aware that from an operational standpoint it will likely be necessary to attempt to keep power on to all customers because the priorities may be dynamic. For example, the movie theater or mall that was closed to the public may be useful as a temporary hospital or clinic for the sick as our health care facilities become overwhelmed during the pandemic event. School systems and churches are planning to close for “normal” business, but make themselves available for emerengy use, whether that be as temporary hospital or other purposes. And while individual homes may not appear to be too important, they may have one or more sick that need care. Such care is difficult without lights, refrigeration and winter heating.
All of those homes, schools, churches, malls and theaters are intermingled on distribution circuits, as are the hospitals, police departments, sewer lifts and water plants. Therefore, every distribution circuit owned and operated by a company must remain energized during a pandemic event. The only way to reduce load on those systems is to make a public plea for voluntary conservation or begin to cut individual customers off at their meter. No company has the workforce to do that even in normal times, much less during a pandemic with personnel out sick. In any event, if your rep is correct and the mall and theater are closed, there will be no need to cut off their power as their load will already be greatly reduced.
The bottom line was well stated by Monotreme: This issue takes careful planning.
Bluebonnet – at 10:05
As to refineries, the ones in my area have already (according to someone I know who works in a local refinery) equipped their workers with PPE’s. It is my understanding they will “lock down” their refineries the same as with a hurricane. Essential personnel will report and will remain for the duration.
That’s really good news. You have also answered a question I had for you on the rumors thread.
Texas is being relatively proactive and they have useful resources. Texas will come out of a very severe pandemic better than most, IMO.
Metronome - will check out your comments in the Rumor thread. I do agree Texas will come out well (fingers and toes crossed). I am going to stick my neck out here - I think Texas will cooperate with the rest of the US. Yes, when they make me Queen for the day - this is how it will be. :)
Texas is the only state that was a Republic before joining the Union. Texas was a slave state and ceded from the Union in the War Between the States. We KNOW we can’t make it on our own. We are dependent on all the rest of the States for our survival. We need the food from California and Florida. We need the coal from the Big Sky country.
And, yes, we need the crude from Alaska (calm down Texans - it’s true and you know it!).
Texas means friend. Texans have always been the first to answer the call to duty and I sincerely hope we continue to do this. One of the proudest moments of my life was when the first busses from New Orleans rolled into the Astrodome.
We’re a big State with big hearts. Hopefully, if the worst happens we will still be Texans and Americans to the rest of this Union.
Lone Star flag waving and “Texas Our Texas” playing in the background!!!!
Bluebonnet at 10:25: Yep, I’m wiping away a tear and humming “Deep in the Heart of Texas” after reading your post. I sure hope you’re right.
WIT - I am born and bred Texan and very proud of it. If we are to survive as a Nation, we have to cooperate with one another both on the national, state and local level.
If this pandemic plays out to even close to a worst case scenario, it will bring out the worst in our politicians. There will be great pressure on elected officials to detach from the grid and try to go it alone, in my opinion.
In order to survive, they (and we) must resist this great temptation to save our own. I really wish that TPTB would just come OUT with the plans (or lack of them). I think people would accept and deal once they realize that elected officials are thinking about various scenarios and working hard to protect their constituents rather than continuing to engage in partisan fighting both in Austin and DC.
Bluebonnet – at 11:06
I surely hope that Texas does help out other states. I think it is possible that it could get coal from Big Sky country, but I wouldn’t count on food from California. If there is reduction in available energy, as I think most of us expect, will the Texas governor sacrifice the lives of Texans to send electricity to New York? I hate to be a cynic, but I don’t think so.
I do believe a national strategy would be the best, but right now, we don’t have one. If the a very severe pandemic happens this winter, I think every state and region will look after their own interests. And that’s a terrible shame.
How many previous Presidents have residences in Texas?
If the bad scenarios transpire this Fall or Winter, that outsized sense of self and purpose that is embedded in the history of Texas and in its citizens will be put to the test. It may be up to you Texans to save the Republic, to resusitate it after a near-death experience. And you will have to put all of your “blood, sweat, and tears” into the effort. I think you will be up to it.
Monotreme – at 21:40
The influx of refugees from the surrounding states and Mexico will certainly be a major issue to deal with.
……Where would you rather be during a pandemic,….
I didn’t catch that phrase. I was thinking post pandemic. I think if it is really bad it will take quite some time to get things up and running again. People will gravitate to where there is normallacy. If just the single people with no family ties decide to head to there, that’s a lot of people.
MM-
THere are a couple of corners of West Virginia that will prove up to it, too. <Grin> HBBs and mine at a start.
LMWatBullRun – at 15:31
I’m from Pittsburgh. Howdy neighbor!
folks in buffalo this weekend are sweating their fish tanks and omfg sumps not working. they are off for a few days and we’re talking chaos. wait till bf.
JWB – at 14:01
I was thinking post pandemic. I think if it is really bad it will take quite some time to get things up and running again. People will gravitate to where there is normallacy.
After a pandemic, I think able-bodied workers and stable families would be welcome. There will be a big demand for labor after a pandemic, IMO.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 22:13
folks in buffalo this weekend are sweating their fish tanks and omfg sumps not working.
I’ll bet Fluwikians in Buffalo will be more comfortable than most.
No bet. With all that hydro why the outage?
mono.
I, and you, as a fluwikians, are prepared 10,000 X better than than the average schmoe. Yet you and I are prepared less than 1/10,000 0f what we need be. Grim.
LMWatBullRun – at 22:35 why the outage?
It is the distribution and not the generation that is the problem. The same will happen during a pandemic. It takes a lot of people, good conditions, and transportation to the problems, and so on. When the lines go down, there will not be enough people to fix them.
Monotreme – at 09:34
Thanks Monotreme, that’s about what I thought. Yes, we do have energy problems every summer when people are running their air conditioners in 100+ degree heat for weeks on end. We had one day this past summer with a temperature of 119 degrees. Yes, that was 119.
We also have forest fires every fall. I can’t imagine how many homes would burn, in Southern California at least, if those fires weren’t put out.
I have enough stuff to last a couple years, but if I don’t have it hidden well enough, I know that desperate people will come to take it away from me, and I think the National Guard would take it and redistribute it and maybe even force us out of our homes and into some guarded quarantined area just so they can try to keep law and order.
So I may just load up a big truck with all my stuff and take it up to my dad’s in Montana (which is FAR away from any city) now, then come back home and wait for the signs that the pandemic has started, then throw the kid and the dog in the SUV and high tail it outa this L.A. suburb, head for the hills. Then, all I have to worry about is freezing to death in 34 below 0 degree weather in the winter if the fuel for the furnace runs out. (WHY did he have to go and get rid of that old wood stove, the outhouse and the chicken coop and turn the barn into a workshop?!)(I’m not kidding, by the way.)
In a pandemic California wildfires will burn unchecked until they meet the Pacific Ocean.
Luckily I live near the ocean ;−0
California is HEAVILY dependant on air tankers for wildland firefighting BTW.
No fuel, no tankers.
Sick pilots, no tankers.
Sick or dead ground crews, no tankers.
No retardant gel manufacturing, no air drops. (raw materials come from China)
No mutual aid, entire areas will burn to the ground
That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:46
Montana apparently has alot of coal, something I learned on this thread. They also have huge Coal power plants. That’s convenient. So, if they plan a bit, they should be in pretty good shape.
Picking the right time to bug out of California to get to Montana will be the tricky part. Let’s hope our fellow Fluwikians come through for us on that.
Here’s an interesting link:
Thanks Monotreme and Bird Guano.
I live in a suburb in the San Fernando Valley near Los Angeles, if either of you know where that is. If you had a choice of:
1. staying at your house with 2 years’ supplies (most of it hidden really well), a pool for water (and a Big Berkey and bleach for the little beastie viruses, of course), 1/2 acre for growing vegetables/fruits, fruit trees, high fences with locked gates, firearms, 3 big mean dogs who will rearrange an intruders anatomy with great gusto, able bodied souls to work and defend the homestead, etc.
vs.
2. packing up all the supplies in a truck and trucking up to Montana where we might freeze if the furnance fuel runs out, and where there isn’t anyplace for the dogs to sleep without freezing to death, but it’s way out in the middle of nowhere. No starving multitudes to worry about, no military types looking to “forcefully requisition” your stuff.
Which do you think you would choose? I am really trying to figure it out and I guess I don’t have enough info yet or something, because I keep changing my mind.
That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:46
If there was a wood stove there is probably still the chimney that went with it, right? The stove is pretty easy to replace if you have a chimney to install it in. We did that last year in our house and surely have enjoyed the results. We got a small Napoleon woodstove for $1200 and my husband and friend tiled a hearth under it and a wall behind it. The Napoleons don’t get the wall behind them really hot. The heat mostly comes out the front, though you can remove the top so you can cook on it, my husband says. We love the glass front and it heats the whole downstairs of our house. You can get different size Napoleons for different size houses.
You can overcome your other two problems easily enough. Just be sure to leave early enough to get here before you can’t get enough gas to make it all the way. We plan our visiting our daughters in Texas at Christmas this year and gas worries will bug us during the whole vacation (if we’re able to go at all).
I would welcome anyone/everyone else’s opinion, also. BTW, If I’m straying too far off topic, just let me know and I can start another thread about it. Don’t worry, I won’t get my tail all puffy! ;)
bgw in MT – at 02:19
Thanks for the tips! I’ll have to ask my dad if he still has a chimney left from the remodeling. Sure wish he hadn’t done all that. (So does he. He’s finally come around to my way of thinking about the bird flu threat (I had been emailing him so much stuff about it, he finally gave in, so now he’s on board with the whole bird flu prepping/hiding out thing. I just found out today.)
I doubt that the gas stations will run dry immediately, but I would worry about people clogging the interstates when they start hearing about large numbers of people in the hospital with BF. People are going to panic when the pandemic is announced, because they believe that if there were any real danger, the government and the media would tell them. There will only be panic when they start to realize it for themselves, which won’t be right away. So in my opinion, you shouldn’t get stranded with no gas. Just make sure you have an internet connection so you can stay connected to the Wiki while you’re gone, so you know when to hop in the car and head home!
That’s Just Ducky!,
Consider purchasing a wood stove like the one I have posted a link to below:
http://www.vogelzang.com/bx42e.htm
This is the type we purchased a couple of years ago. They sell for around $300. You can cook on the top of the stove if the need arises. This is one of the old type of stoves that has no blowers but is strictly radiant heat.
My suggestion is to preposition half of your preps at your dad’s house. Bug out if you can with the rest when the time comes to do so. If you are not able to leave in time before travel restrictions begin, then you will still have a goodly amount of prep materials. Don’t wait for the first cases reported in the U.S. though. Do so when it is identified overseas if possible.
google for “oil from algae” - maybe independence from foreign oil etc IS the message?
TJD-
I’d go to Montana. Physical problems are easier to handle and easier to predict than human interactions. As anyone who has studied mob behaviour knows, or anyone who looked at the devolution of the former Soviet Union saw, attudinal shifts may take time to start, but once they begin they happen very quickly. Since you have the resources described, I’d buy a couple of military 2 1/2 ton trucks and plan an evacuation. I’d suggest that you consider getting Montana driver’s licenses, as this may help get you in past roadblocks etc; you may want to give getting past such impediments some deep thoughts. I’d also consider buying good commo equipment and especially scanners. If possible, it would be most helpful if your family had ham radio licenses.
Further note:
Diesel vehicles can run on kerosene, jet fuel, home heating oil, even vegetable oil, which why I recommended you consider such vehicles.
Thanks so much to all of you for your great advice and info. I knew I oculd count on my fellow fluwikians!
see if grandma can get any of the local school bumper stickers.
That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:11
If the CFR is high, I would go to Montana. No amount of personal preps can make California a safe place in a very severe pandemic. The state has done nothing to prepare and there is no national plan to assure power to California.
I also agree that you should pre-position supplies in Montana and be prepared to leave as soon as the pandemic starts anywhere. Most state plans include travel restrictions. If the CFR is high, I would expect these will be imposed very fast. Establishing your ties to the city or town where you would be going might be prudent as well.
Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
I have a question for the power plant experts. Could nuclear power plants be kept running if they are part of a local, stable grid? As I understand it, nuclear power plants need electricity to run. If the Grid becomes unstable, they have to be shut down for safety reasons. However, if a smaller, stable local or regional grid was in place, I would think it would be possible to keep the nuke plants going, which would be nice since they aren’t going to run out of fuel for a while. Also, could someone explain why the nuke plants can’t use the electricity that they generate themselves? This is probably a dumb question, but I was wondering if the nuke plants couldn’t be the core of a small grid. Basically this grid would consist of the nuke power plants and however much of the local region that they could electricity for.
Monotreme – at 12:01
Most power plants need electricity to operate, including nukes. And, all power plants have electricity available from their own generators - they need no external sources if they are up and running. In addition, some power plants, and especially nukes have their own backup diesel generation - huge machines that in and of themselves can produce a lot of power, again without help from external power sources.
Now as to safe operation, all power plants can operate as long as there is a reasonably stable balance of load and generation on the grid. However, if the balance of load and generation is suddenly impacted (due to loss of another large generator or a transmission line) then all the operating plants must quickly adjust, either up or down. Nukes are really no different than a large coal-fired plant in that regard.
The safe and stable operation of a power system is directly proportional to its size and the diversity of load and generation connected to the grid. The smaller you make the system, the less stable it becomes since any change in either or generation has much larger impacts. On smaller systems, adjustments to changes in load or generation must be made much more quickly or the whole system begins to collapse. So, if you are interested i keeping large nukes on line, you really need a large grid, not a small one. If you go to a small grid, use gas turbines. Those machines are essentially airplane engines and can readily and quickly adjust to both increases and decreases in load quite safely.
LMWatBullRun – at 09:34
Further note:
Diesel vehicles can run on kerosene, jet fuel, home heating oil, even vegetable oil, which why I recommended you consider such vehicles.
I strongly agree.
My backup vehicle is a diesel 4×4 with an in-bed backup tank.
I’m good for about 1,000 miles without refueling, towing a moderate sized trailer and loaded with gear.
I’d expect people to react very quickly once the word is out about pandemic overseas. Those who’ve been paying attention will tell a few people and go shopping - with a no-nonsense attitude. The suppressed fear and the grim faces will communicate something to others. Then there are all the officials and military who will be getting bulletins - they will call home, and their families will begin stocking up, and if they are just hearing about pandemic for the first time, get out of their way. It won’t take long to empty the shelves and/or produce gridlock in the streets, depending on the size of your community. Just my opinion.
Mamabird – at 12:42
Thanks for information. I learned alot from your post.
I have been processing alot of information regarding what will happen during a very severe pandemic and I’d like your input, and anyone else’s, on the following scenario/plan.
Assumptions
Plan
Ideally, this would happen at the National level, but there is no indication it will. The CDC and many local public health officials dismiss the possibility of a severe pandemic out of hand. OTOH, some states are preparing to some degree.
The middle one-third of the country has water, food, and energy. With proper planning, I think a co-operative region that is functional, even during a very severe pandemic, could survive with the basics of civilisation.
Comments?
Thanks again to all. I am going to preposition my supplies in Montana, obtain my Montana drivers license, purchase and get wood stoves installed (one in house, one in cabin and one in outbuilding for animals), make sure firewood cutting and chopping tools are in place and firewood is stocked, make sure firearms and necessary equipment for hunting and defense is in place, make sure all canning and other food preservation equipment and subsistence farming supplies equipment are in place, make sure livestock feed and supplies are laid in, make sure and whatever else I’m not thinking of here off the top of my head. I add all this info in case it is of benefit to anyone else as well.
Monotreme at 14:04 - That is a great high level plan. I agree with you, that some regional areas like this could probably survive. I just don’t see how it could be planned and executed in a reasonable timeframe. I.e., who would be in charge, overall to develop a high level plan and determine the regional areas, who would be in charge in the regional areas to do the planning and execution, etc. This would be a huge undertaking. In the case of a severe pandemic, my gut feeling is that after the pandemic is over and the dust clears, we will look around and see who’s left, and those that are left will band together with others in their vicinity and work together to survive as best they can as little groups in a barter system. This is how I think civilization will go forward, after a severe pandemic, with infrastructure collapse of a sufficient duration, in a worst-case scenario.
I think something approaching the idea you have above might be feasible in a much “better-case” scenario, but I doubt that it would be possible to get the necessary planning, personnel, resources, etc. in place in time. I’m trying to imagine how long it would take to plan something like this, and I just don’t know enough about these types of infrastructure systems to even be able to guess. Maybe others with more knowledge of these things would be able to weigh in.
“Bird Guano – at 12:52
LMWatBullRun – at 09:34
Further note:
Diesel vehicles can run on kerosene, jet fuel, home heating oil, even vegetable oil, which why I recommended you consider such vehicles.
I strongly agree.
My backup vehicle is a diesel 4×4 with an in-bed backup tank.
I’m good for about 1,000 miles without refueling, towing a moderate sized trailer and loaded with gear. “
OK, guys, a question. Do they still put dye in bulk Kerosene? A few years ago people were buying bulk Kerosene and using it in diesel cars because, without highway taxes, it was actually cheaper than Diesel. The Govt then mandated that bulk Kerosene have a dye added which also contained an additive that would screw up diesel engines.
This was about 15 years ago, and I have no clue if it is still the case.
Clear Kerosene is much more stable than Diesel and is a good choice for storage if you can find it at a reasonable price.
15 minutes or so ago. All islands of Hawaii without power. 95% in Oahu. a Earthquake. It will be interesting how this all plays out. At least it is warm.
My wife said she just heard on the news that the airport (Honolulu?) has no power and they can’t get the generators working. Without electricity they can’t even get the toilets to flush. Imagine the crowd at the airport, can’t fly and can’t use the toilet either.
One comment my wife made is that it sure seems like Hawaii isn’t prepared for any kind of emergency.
Monotreme – at 14:04
Mono T, I am very pleased to see someone like yourself really looking into these possibilities, developing scenarios and brainstorming. We need more of that from every sector. You asked for some input on your latest, and all I can really give you is some conclusions reached by numerous companies associated with several critical infrastructure industries as to how a pandemic might affect their own workforce. So here goes for what it is worth.
The companies I have dealt with primarily focus on clinical infection rates, not case fatality ratios, at least initially. Why, because CIR drives absenteism. The vast majority have patterned their planning around a 1918-like pandemic in which CIR averaged say 30%, but hit the working class age group hard. The absenteism comes as a result of several things, not just the worker that is personally out ill. Some personnel are expected to be away from the workplace because they are primary caregivers of another ill family member, some because public transportation is no longer reliable or available and they have no other means to commute, and many due to school and day care closures. I will add that there is another element very difficult to define, but it relates to fear and panic. Some simply SIP and do not show up.
Now, interestingly under the above absentee reasons, the illness itself has the lowest impact. Although over 30% of the workers are expected to contract this flu bug, the infections are spread out over an eight week period, so some of the illnesses occur early during the pandemic event, and some later. That diversity makes a big difference resluting in weekly peak absenteism due to illness of 16%.
The biggest impact is school and day care closures. Most of the companies determined that about half of their workforce had one or more dependents under the age of 18. Now assuming that half of those must stay home for some part of the pandemic to care and supervise children, then 25% absenteism is due to school closure. Unfortunately, it is an immediate hit on the workforce, unlike the illness which starts, picks up speed, and then begins to die out.
So, at pandemic peak, the companies have 16% out due to illness, 25% out due to school and day care closure, resulting in 41% absenteism. Another 5% may be out due to commute problems. Now I haven’t said anything about CFR yet. The pandemic could actually be H9N2, rather than H5N1. In other words, it might be a flu bug that is highly infectious because we have no immunity, but the CFR may be next to nothing. That would not matter in the above absentee scenario. You would still have 16% out ill, and 25% out because public officials pulled the plug on schools out of fear.
What I can tell you though is that the element of fear and panic leading to workers SIP is very uncertain, with the range of possibilities likey quite large, and this would have to be added to the above figures. When the companies began talking CFR, the planning began to break down because deaths of family members and fellow co-workers was considered devastating. And those dicussions were no where near an assumed CFR of 5%.
In summary, once peak absenteism passes the 50% mark, primarily driven by school closures and SIP, critical infrastructure companies loss an ability to maintain essential elements of operation. So, even with the best intentions and plans, if schools close and local folks SIP, infrastructure begins to collapse and society suffers. That’s not to say we shouldn’t plan like gangbusters in anticipation, but an investment in public education about these issues seems critical to lessen to threat of fear and panic.
Appologies to all for the long post. I bet that’s the last time Mono T asks such an open ended question, huh?
Mamabird, please don’t appologize! The longer the posts, the better, in my opinion, especially when they are from one as “read-worthy” as yourself!
(I’d like to think the schools would send the kids home out of knowledge of the untreated fatality rate and current age demographic of H5N1 cases, and wanting to keep as large a % of minors alive as possible, so families and future economies will not lose a couple of generations of citizens, rather than say “out of fear”… Also, whether or not the schools close, parents that can may pull their kids out of school systems that insist on running during a pandemic.)
Monotreme, or Bronco Bill, (or, lurking gridfolk) is it possible for power supplies to plan to cut power to certain hours per day; forced rationing? (Except perhaps for hospitals, ect?) Public could be told ahead of time when they will and won’t have power when pandemic is declared, encouraged to limit their use to necessities when they have it, under threat of crashing their own grid for the duration if they don’t; could the grid be kept up that way?
TJD-
Don’t forget the commo. Also, a good vest is a good idea.
Mamabird – at 17:21 - did you/they take into account length of disease? Thanks for your comment above!
lugon – at 18:05
Length of disease has been an interesting discussion. First, as to the numbers presented in my earlier post, those personnel that were absent from the workplace, either due to personal illness or as primary caregiver, were away for two full weeks. Now let me explain some of the discussion.
It was felt that one week out for the flu was a good assumption if we were talking seasonal flu (Type B, H3N2 and H1N1). However, for pandemic flu it was felt that more time should be added to the seasonl flu absences because people could experience a higher level of disability, longer time of recovery, and because they would also be urged by the companies to stay home until non-symtomatic (basically normal body tempreture). In other words, no sneeking back to work when you could finally raise your head off the pillow like some Type A’s tend to do. You would be caught and sent back home.
But, there was some view that a full two week absence due to more severe illness should also manifest itself in higher case fatality rates. Probably not a bad assumption, but like I stated, most of the scenario was paterned after a 1918-like event, which had CFR of about 2.8%. That’s high, but that was basically the end of the discussion as dealing with the fatality issue was not really appropriate for the planners at that time. Maybe it’s a good time to revisit because H5N1 continues to take on more human characteristics, but has not lost any pathogenicity.
That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:01
Sounds like a good plan to me. The big issue is whether you have enough notice ahead of time to get out of Calfornia and into Montana before the travel restrictions go into effect. You might want to include a pretty extensive car survival package, including backpacks, just in case.
re: power outage in Hawaii. CNN currently has a picture of people lined up for food. Look carefully at all of those people who are looking for food outside their home within one day of an emergency and think about what will happen in the event of a severe pandemic. The other comments about Hawaiians not being prepared is clearly true. I’m going to have to add Hawaii to my list of unsaveable states.
crullfullmoon - at 17:38
They were just talking about rationing the power in Hawaii on the news. They want to feed critical areas, and they want to purposely take most people off-line so that when they return to full power there won’t be a surge.
Mamabird – at 17:21
Don’t worry about your posts being too long. We all greatly appreciate the thought you put into them and the expertise you bring to the table.
As regards the problem with absenteesism, if the CFR is high, people will be afraid. There will be no school, no-one will go to an office, no-one will want to go out to eat, no-one will be shopping for new shoes. And that’s a good thing. If people have prepared ahead of time, they can stay home. The government will have to provide for those who haven’t. I have advocated storing basic rations in all the major cities for distritubion to the unprepared. The more people who prepare ahead of time, the less of a burden this will be on local governments.
Obviously we need for essential workers to continue to work. It is equally obvious that they won’t do so if they are scared to come to work or are concerned about family members. Jumping Jack Flash has suggested creating the necessary resources for power plant workers to shelter in place at the power plants with there families here. I would include a doctor, a nurse and whatever other support the power plant workers needed to feel comfortable to continue their work. The whole facility would be guarded by National Guard. The time to talk to essential workers about this is now. If the authorities were to level with them and seek their input, I think it would be possible to put together a package that was appealing to the essential workers.
One reporter was making light about people in Hawaii having to eat PB&J as there was no way to cook a meal.
I wanted to slap her on the screen and yell-you idiot! You’re looking a deadly issue and you missed it completely…..
Monotreme – at 19:54
“…power plant workers to shelter in place at the power plants with there (sic) families…”
In working with the various field personnel (as opposed to office workers), and their bargaining unit representatives, most seem to be quite amenable to limited protective sequestration at their work location. There have been lots of discussion about one week shifts that may be quite doable, but of course in order to be protective, there also must be some level of quarantine for those returning from the outside.
Almost all these personnel have taken the position that you can sequester them for as long as you like if their families can be with them so that they are assured of their care and safety. The limiting factor with that has been that most work locations, especially plants, are not conducive to family living (serious lack of showers, sleeping areas, food preparation facilities, etc.)
But in summary, all of the field personnel are very appreciative of the fact that their companies are openly discussing these matters, and attempting to work with them to outline viable solutions. I think most realize that no one has really gone through this before, so there are no right or wrong answers, just lots of options with associated issues.
Mamabird – at 21:41
I’m glad to hear these issues are being discussed. As regards the lack of facilities, one could bring in mobile homes or else upgrade existing facilities to permit long term living conditions for families. I realize no-one has had to deal with this before, but I think it’s necessary to resolve these issues before a pandemic starts.
I would think it would be better if people were prepared to stay inside for the duration of the local outbreak (8 weeks), with their families. Leaving and coming back during a pandemic would be unwise, IMO.
At some point, I’m going to move info from this discussion to a Wiki page and ask the experts to comment on it.
Could some of us retirees, who are easily able to SIP, take care of essential workers children? They would have to SIP with us early on, of course, for everyone’s safety. We would need advance warning to prepare.
Okieman – at 07:50
Does that wood stove smoke up the room too badly? Some of them do.
LMWatBullRun – at 17:39
commo? Did you mean ammo? Of course! That’s a given!
Monotreme – at 19:37
I should htg we would not have need of backpacks! That is truly a scary thought…
Our wood stove doesn’t smoke. Of course there will be some buildup anytime you burn something, even gas. Our stove is very high efficiency, so high that we got a $500 tax credit from the state. That brought the cost to us down to $700. We saved almost that much in oil last year and just enjoyed the heck out of our little stove.
When I said the top comes off so you can use it to cook, I mean there is an enameled iron top that lifts off and reveals the cast iron firebox underneath. Ours is like the little green enameled stove shown on this page:
http://www.napoleonfireplaces.com/Webshare/wood/wood%20stoves/1100c.html
I worked on coal-fired power plants in Wheatland, Wyoming and Eastern Colorado in the late 70′s. At that time, the coal came from out east, the Appalachia mines. Don’t know about now.
I plan to bug out to a rural house in Monterey county, CA. Could live just on the mushrooms that grow there! Fish in the ocean, plenty of local crops, the wells are bad from nitrates, bulding a biosand filter to filter rain and well water. Temp range is 45 to 75 degrees, coastal California is picnic comparatively, in a no power scenario! I am putting off a potential move to Denver, aside from water issues , I’ve done winter in snow with no power, the Fireplace God will brook no other Gods before it! (Althought the newer models look very much easier to keep up!)
But I right now live in Orange County, Calif, and the daily self-centeredness and get-ahead-over-the-bodies-of-others morals scares the hell out of me here in good times. This place will be a nightmare with shortages. The Rule of Law is only respected here when it is to the advantage of the upper class. (Compared to living in the mountains of Colorado, where a neighbor in trouble was an opportunity to share.) People here freak when the power is out for an hour.
Monotreme, from CNN, ..”Though telephones across the state, for the most part, were working, residents were urged not to tie up the lines so that the circuits would be free for emergency use.
Hawaiians were also urged to stay off roads and highways if possible, to keep them clear for emergency vehicles .”…
(Hm; there’s a thought for the “bugging out” threads? )(Unprepared bandits won’t obey official urgings, and, hordes of people who are in the worng places and want to get home, or, want to go get their relatives, are going to clog the roads when they know pandemic is dropping people here.)
The public needs to be told now, that if they are home because large public gatherings, work, school, ect, are not options, they can’t all turn on their TVs, computers, AC, electric heat over 65F, ect, or they will probably crash the grid early, right? Right now, when people are bored (or scared?) they talk on the phones, watch tv, distract themselves or their kids with electronic means.
Steep learning curve to get the public to conserve, but, what other options are there?
Mamabird at 17:21 (and really anyone else knowledgeable)
“What I can tell you though is that the element of fear and panic leading to workers SIP is very uncertain, with the range of possibilities likely quite large, and this would have to be added to the above figures. When the companies began talking CFR, the planning began to break down because deaths of family members and fellow co-workers was considered devastating. And those dicussions were no where near an assumed CFR of 5%.”
I am trying to talk about this issue with a family member who, though now retired, was once a high level state official who regulated utilities and has a good amount of knowledge (though not of course from inside). He has great faith in the ability of utility companies to plan and provide for the public good. He is assuring me that utilities will be able to plan for and handle the threat of a pandemic, with masks, handwashing, cross-training, and so on. Any problems will be limited to short outages, maybe longer time for repairs, and no new customers until the illness passes. I think that might be true but only for a mild pandemic.
Do you think it is correct to say that as of right now, utilities will be able to handle a mild pandemic; but that they are not able to handle anything that is moderate or severe? (I wouldn’t blame them a bit — I feel this is too big an issue to really handle. No offense intended.)
Really, I need personal advice. My sense is, I am hearing from people on the inside here that it will be very difficult to plan for and carry out operations if a pandemic has a 1918-type death rate — or worse. Is it even doable? How much should I push this with my relative — OK with my father — who thinks I am lovable, but a bit hysterical these days?
Of possible interest….
A Power-Grid Report Suggests Some Dark Days Ahead By MATTHEW L. WALD
WASHINGTON, Oct. 15 — Companies are not building power plants and power lines fast enough to meet growing demand, according to a group recently assigned by the federal government to assure proper operation of the power grid.
The group, the North American Electric Reliability Council, in its annual report, to be released Monday, said the amount of power that could be generated or transmitted would drop below the target levels meant to ensure reliability on peak days in Texas, New England, the Mid-Atlantic area and the Midwest during the next two to three years.
The council was established in 1965 after a blackout across the Northeast, and has since set voluntary standards for the industry. After the blackout of 2003, which covered a vast swath of the Midwest, Northeast and Ontario, Congress set up a process that would eventually give the council the authority to fine American companies that did not follow certain operating standards. It is seeking a similar designation in Canada, since — electrically speaking — the border is irrelevant……….
That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:28
No, our wood stove doesn’t smoke up the room.
The stove bgw in MT – at 03:07 mentions looks like a good stove also. The reason I mentioned the stove we use is because it is fairly cheap, has no blowers, and is relatively easy to take apart, pickup and move.
It is not a high efficiency stove like the Napoleon and other modern wood stoves. But that is not an issue if you have an abundance of wood (I live in a oak/hickory forest), but is if availability of wood fuel is limited.
The stove I mention may not be approved in some locations due to the smoke/air pollution issue. It’s probably ok in Montana, but not California. The old fashion Vogelzang burns the wood and the smoke goes up the stove pipe, simple as that. You adjust the burn by use of the vent in the bottom and the damper in the stovepipe.
We have used our stove for two winters and have been very happy with it. One thing we do is put a fan behind the stove to push air past it, and turn on the ceiling fan. This does a good job of distributing the heat to different portions of the house. But if the electricity went out we would still have plenty of heat, we just might have to run a little bit more wood through the stove.
There are lots of stoves to choose from out there, get the one that best suits your needs, wood availability and cost range.
ACM-
Things have changed a great deal in the power business in just the last few years. COntinued emphasis on cost reduction combined with social changes have resulted in an extremely ‘brittle’ infrastructure. FYI the assessment where I work is that the grid can be expected to go down nationally for an extended period if the pandemic is as bad as 1918 or worse.
Amazing to see the efficiency of some of these modern woodstoves. After the energy crisis in the 70′s stove companies popped up all over, there were many good ones, but most went out of business when the price of oil dropped and conservation went out the window during the 80′s. Many folks removed their stoves, kept mine, an old Mid Moe, company gone now I believe. It has come in handy a few times when we have had power outages. Six or so years back had a major electrical tower come down from an ice storm, no power for 3 or 4 days, was the only one in my neighborhood with heat. This being the middle of the coldest part of Winter, had a lot of visitors coming over for a hot cup of tea. That is something I do not like to think about in a Pandemic. Could not do so for them in a SIP.
While it would be nice to have one of the newer clean burning stoves, financially it would not make sense. My old stove, once it is burning well, puts out almost no visible smoke, has a tremendous draft and heat output, keeps my 1300 Sq.Ft house and basement warm and cozy. Will be getting another wood rack for the garage. Hopefully that will be enough for 5 or 6 weeks. Have read all of this thread on keeping the grid up. While I agree that some of these worst case scenarios could take place, also think that TPTB will make their biggest efforts in this area and that we will have power at least some of the time because the consequences without it are unthinkable after a short period. Bottom line for my preps in this regard is that we are planning for a middle ground. As someone has said before, think it was on a thread for emergency lighting, if the (light) (power) is off for more than a couple of weeks we will be in deep trouble.
Great discussion, but the thread is too long. Please continue here.