I could not find a thread to place this in so it stands alone. Note: I am aware everyone will be speculating in their answers. Obviously no one knows the answers. Just looking for opinions. Do any of you think there is a chance that the virus may mutate into a LESS aggressive virus? Don’t get me wrong. I am prepping and will NOT stop prepping. But I am curious about possibilities. Do any of you think there is a chance this may not happen soon? From what I have read on here, most seem to think pandemic will occur this Fall. Anyone not think that?
Lurker - Since nobody has responded to your post, I thought I would. I do NOT think it will mutate into a less aggressive virus. I am still a 4-A…and almost done prepping - Hallalujia!
My greatest concern is after the initial SIP period, when everyone surfaces hoping to replenish their dwindling supplies, return to work, etc. Could it mutate again for the second wave? If you got the flu during the first wave, can you be assured that you are now immune to it? Or is that a sense of false security? If it mutates again between waves, perhaps that individual could get it again, yes?
Anyone knowledgeable out there that can respond to these concerns???
Lurker,
It depends on what you mean by ‘aggressive’. There are 2 things to consider: transmissibility and virulence.
A very simplified way of expressing and thinking about these 2 aspects is to use R0 (reproductive ratio, which is the number of patients infected by one person) and CFR (case fatality rate, which is the number of deaths per 100 infected patients).
Transmissibility : when R0>1, the virus is capable of causing a pandemic. The higher the R0, the faster it will spread or the higher the chance of an explosive outbreak.
Virulence : current CFR is 57%. Some scientists hypothsize that the CFR is expected to drop if there is a pandemic, but there is no solid scientific support so say that has to be the case. It is possible that if the virus acquires the ability for efficient h2h (ie high R0>1) by reassortment with a human flu strain, then the virulence may be lower since some people may have partial immunity to the virus, but there is no guarantee that this has to happen.
Transmissibility and virulence can evolve in different directions, so there could be a variety of outcomes from less transmissible, less virulent, in which case the virus probably disappears, all the way to more transmissible and more virulent, which is so scary that I don’t even want to think about it!
A22,”in which case the virus probably disappears, all the way to more transmissible and more virulent, which is so scary that I don’t even want to think about it!”
Well said-the best case scenario could also the the worst case scenario.
To add to anon 22′s excellent comments there becomes a ‘tipping point’ per se where the virus becomes so entrenched (endemic) that it is not going to go away…
…early in the winter, many missed the statement by my friends at the World Health Organization that stated without reservation that H5N1 was no endemic in Asia.
What this means is that it has reached an equilibrium with nature and eradication will no longer work.
Therfore, to answer your question will the virus mutate itself out of business by becoming less virulent etc, the answer is to do that it would have to occur simultaneously in all of the several strains already identified and some unknown ones that would not have been identified yet…which is impossible…in one strain it might be possible but not in several.
So we are stuck with it and will be stuck with it for decades…it will float in this equilibrium and mutate as influenza’s tend to do and interact with other species of mammals and other species of influenza…
…and it will eventually have an effect directly or indirectly on our lives.
I have been watching this virus since March. 1) It has made so many mutations during this time span to make me concerned. 2) This viri down times are continuely getting shorter. Therefore,creating more time for more mutations. Of course, this is only in the sequences that have been reported. I wonder about the sequences that have not been reported. gina
And we still have not heard from China…
I have been thinking - such a dangerous thing to do I know …
In many countries where BF is already endemic in birds, people have often voiced the attitudde that so few get sick and die. What we are seeing now is an increase in the number of people getting sick and dying but are we seeing a relative increase in the number of birds sick and dying? What I am asking is, what is the ratio of sick birds to sick people? If that ratio is shrinking (and I am beginning to speculate that it is) then does this mean it is becoming ‘easier’ for the virus to move from bird (or whatever source) to human? If the ‘species barrier’ is becoming so thin then is the H2H so important as a key means of infection? How permeable is this barrier and are the holes getting bigger?
Notwithstanding (that’s a big word) the above, I still realise that H2H is the most efficient spread in humans but any-mammal-to-H may do considerable ‘damage’ before then and maybe we should become more vigilent on alternative sources of infection?
I look forward to others thinking or pontificating on this.
AnnieB,
I (sort of) understand what you are trying to say. But the science of flu virus evolution is not a hard and fast linear equation where a particular ratio can be extrapolated into something meaningful.
Let’s try this out for a moment. To assess the ability of the virus to cross the species barrier, in principle one should be looking at the number of people infected vs the number of people exposed via sick birds. Even though the overall incidence of bird infection gives us a general indication of the level of exposure, there are huge variations in different locations as to the number of people who might be exposed (and the nature of the exposure) to say every 100 sick birds, depending on farming practices, population, whether any culling was done, whether people actually cooked and ate the birds, etc. Such qualitative variations would outweigh any possible quantitative variations IMO.
Anon-22:
Yesterday Frenchie Girl said something about waiting for news on cetaceans. Could this be the group Dr. Tom hypothesizes as shoreline mammals capable of serving as a reservoir?
2beans – at 14:53 Anon-22:
“Yesterday Frenchie Girl said something about waiting for news on cetaceans. Could this be the group Dr. Tom hypothesizes as shoreline mammals capable of serving as a reservoir?”
I didn’t read Frenchie’s post. Can you tell me which thread it is.
Certainly cetaceans are the group that Taubenberger for example had been wondering about as the reservoir for the 1918 virus, so, yes, I should think it is something that ought to be considered now.
Anon 22:
You mean dolphins, porposies or whales? I need to google, this is the first time I’ve heard of this. How would the virus spread from them?
Leo7 – at 19:16 “Anon 22:
You mean dolphins, porposies or whales? I need to google, this is the first time I’ve heard of this. How would the virus spread from them?”
These marine mammals do have interactions with land species from time to time. They don’t always just stay in the ocean. And they are certainly caught and used in food and other industries.
The reason why this was one area of interest for 1918 partly has to do with the fact that the virus was so different from other flu viruses. Taubenberger thinks that “the donor virus must have been in evolutionary isolation for some time before 1918″. Marine mammals is probably one area that has not seen a lot of research as far as flu is concerned.
I don’t know whether similar considerations are appropriate for H5N1. Current evidence certainly suggests that it arose in southern China, the traditional place where new flu strains appeared. But this virus is so different from other flu A viruses that perhaps we need to consider wider possibilities, but that’s just my very uneducated guess.
Anon 22:
Of all the mammals mentioned previously I must have missed that discussion. Very enlightening for me. I hope that doesn’t play out as true though. Thanks
Leo7,
You’re welcome. This subject has not had very much discussion, simply because it is mostly speculative at the moment.
Anon-22:
The frenchie girl mention was on the rumors thread of 8/11 at 13:37 but was merely a passing thought of waiting for info from the U.S. The question certainly makes sense with all the birds pooping in the near-offshore, fish eating the poop and mammals eating the fish maybe? Or just spending all that time in the poop-filled water, especially for the filter-feeders.
“Lurker – at 15:20 I could not find a thread to place this in so it stands alone. Note: I am aware everyone will be speculating in their answers. Obviously no one knows the answers. Just looking for opinions. Do any of you think there is a chance that the virus may mutate into a LESS aggressive virus? “
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 23:07:00 −0400 (EDT)
“So I am trying to put the pieces together- maybesomeone can help me. Could all 4 strains(H5N1) that are dangerous to humans all wind up in North America at the same time? If not, which so far is the most likely one to end up here? Is one strain more lethal than the other strains?”
RESPONSE:
DR. Henry Niman
Posted: Today at 6:02pm- 2006
Closed to maintain Forum speed.