I’m starting to think the unthinkable. Maybe I am prepped enough already. Three developments have occurred down under (in Australia) that give me considerable hope that we may get through this relatively unscathed.
First Australia (where I am) has a pandemic plan in place as well as State plans. There is going to be a major joint exercise before the end of the month. As has been already reported, anyone who gets sick on an aircraft is treated as a potential BF sufferer - its already happened three times, and the systmes seem to be working (all false alarms thank God).
Second, CSL (Commonwealth Serum Laboratories) a major Australian company that was originally set up to make vaccines many years ago has announced it has started clinical trials of a human BF vaccine made from a Vietnamese strain. Its being tested on 100+ kids and old people. We don’t yet know the results, but assuming it does (even if it only provides protection against the Vietnamese strain) it will serve as a template for a new vaccine against a mutated strain. CSL has advised that it will have a vaccine available within six weeks of a pandemic strain. CSL is also capable of very high production rates making vaccination of the entire Australian population (20 million) achievable.
Everything about the vaccine production is “pre approved”, including draft legislation stripping any rights to sue over vaccine reactions as well as making vaccination compulsory if necessary.
Thirdly, there is a suggestion coming out of a conference in Australia that the CFR is much less than the 60–70 percent officialy seen in Indonesia because there is massive under reporting of cases there.
I also cannot believe that with Americas famous “can do” attitude that vaccine production in the event of a pandemic emergency could not be ramped up at least as fast as Australia’s.
So anyway I’m prepped for about three months. Am I whistling in the dark? At what point do I stop and say enough already?
Plans on paper won’t help you. What preparations, what details, correct or incorrect assumptions?
Hoping the cfr is down won’t help; (I also thought, when blood testing has been done, mild cases have not been found. Perhaps some of the other fatalities assumed to be other illnesses are H5N1 and not being tested for; still a problematic cfr.) Currently we about get swamped during seasonal flu outbreaks, bad weekend for violence, natural disasters, ect; our medical care can’t take any surge for the months a pandemic would play out.
Don’t know about the Aussies, but the US doesn’t even have all facilities built/non-egg techniques yet to make vaccine to do the whole (pre-pandemic)population; won’t until 5 or 6 years from now. If a pandemic vaccine that works is made, they said, to expect perhaps enough to give to 1% of the population per week, as it is made and parcelled out.
Buy what you use and use what you buy. Keep a deeper pantry and use the oldest stuff first.
Enough other instabilities in life and the world nowadays that having reserves of many kinds is wise. If pandemic happens it may happen for a longer time than we’ve ever had to cope; lots of unknowns to prepare against.
If you think you’re prepared enough for now, how about, go help get your essential sectors preparing their families, find what big problems in your community’s planning are getting overlooked and get attention onto what can be done?
The United State has ONE vaccine production facility.
Do the math. ;-)
I’ll keep prepping.
“So anyway I’m prepped for about three months. Am I whistling in the dark? At what point do I stop and say enough already?”
I would say you are “good to go as is” I think there is a marginal utility curve in prepping (like much in life ..) you gain the most from the intial efforts. IMHO .. 1 month is 50%, 2 months is 75%, 3 months is 90%, 1 year is 99% .. Each additional month you prep costs the same, but the potential utility is less (you are much less likely to need/use the preps).
The one thing that can toss the calcs out the window is “Prepping for how many people?” Yeah, you plan for your immediate family, and are good to go with x months of supply, then the unexpected happens - other family members or close personal friends you “don’t want to say no to” brings up the lifeboat decision.
(If a pandemic vaccine that works is made, meant to say -that wouldn’t be until 6 or 7 months after they have a sample- so that’s time everyone would be coping with pandemic; I don’t think it will be recognized and containable) they said, to expect perhaps enough to give to 1% of the population per week, as it is made and parcelled out.)
(Supposed to be offline, making something to eat. Glad you’re feeling optimistic today, I’d rather I was wrong than you…)
Walrus – at 17:18 I reached that point at about 2 months of preps (including power, water, light, garden plantings, etc). Now I just add about 1 or 2 days of preps each time the WHO death toll clicks up by 5. It helps me from overreacting and keeps me on track. I am some where around 3 months myself.
I think you are right about the CFR. I think that if TSHTF it will be an overall death rate of around 2 to 15 % and not the extreme 50 to 70% level. And “we” (major countries, civilization) will recover within a year. The “can do” spirit, the will to survive, the idea of helping others will make it happen. I am not sure how well places like China will function- I am not sure they will do well with their “head cut off” and the system not dictating their lives.
Others here may tell you go for years of preps, but I think you are about right - my humble opinion. Just be sure to keep your batteries charged and your food rotated. Good luck down under.
I no longer think of preparedness just as stash of food, water, and stuff stored in the guest room and the garage. I also think of preparedness as a set of skills and as a more sustainable, self-sufficient lifestyle. Yes, I have supplies to last a while, but that seems the smaller part of the equation. I have much to learn and much to do before I will feel prepared for whatever may come. My grandparents and greatgrandparents would have been much readier, in their day, than I am now.
Walrus – at 17:18 I also cannot believe that with Americas famous “can do” attitude that vaccine production in the event of a pandemic emergency could not be ramped up at least as fast as Australia’s.
Really? Try this true story on for size:
A few months back there was a whooping cough outbreak at the hospital campus where my husband works. There were 120 cases confirmed. 5,000 staff had to be vaccinated.
Fast forward to yesterday. My friend called her doc to request a DPT booster. She was told by the screening nurse that because she is not high risk she cannot receive one.
Why?
According to the nurse, the local supply was used up as the result of the outbreak, the vaccine manufacturer had to begin production on seasonal flu vax, so no new DPT vax available for low risk folks as the available supply was being reserved strictly for high risk people. She was told to call back after the first of the year.
Assuming this nurse had her facts straight (two-thirds of which I know to be true firsthand, so I don’t see why she’d have messed up the other third), this is a ghastly example of how ill prepared the US vaccine infrastructure is. We can’t even distribute ensure the timely distribution of our own seasonal flu vax supply—much less the production.
A lot depends upon your reasons for prepping — for a SIP, or to mitigate the impact of JIT-related product shortages?
Personally, I’m prepping for shortages in the stores. A SIP isn’t realistic for my circumstances. It’s tough to guage how long preps should last, or what will be in short supply. Economic disruption could be widespread, but recover quickly, within a few short months if that’s the amount of time it takes the flu to circle the globe and run its course.
OTOH so many raw materials and even finished goods come from the developing countries that could be hit hardest. Economic recovery could take longer in these places, which all obstructs the supply chain to us in the developed world. With that being the case, what preps are realistic? 3 months? 6 months?
Life in the post-pandemic West could resemble post-Soviet Russia, when people had to line up for sporadically available goods in the stores. We won’t be able to predict what will be available, or when.
I hope things go as hoped with your major joint exercise & that you have no terriorist attacks on your vaccine production plant……..in other words, are you prepped for ANY kind of problem?
Ottawan, I’m with you, I really don’t plan to SIP for pandemic flu, although I’ll limit my contact with the outside world as much as possible while still working if at all possible.
I do think that WHEN (notice I said when, NOT *if*) there is some disruption to the supply chain for whatever reason, I can feel comfortable knowing that I can get by with what I have on hand for quite an extended time.
There are simply too many nuts in the world who would like to be in charge of everything for me to think that I’ll never need my supplies. Backwater countries with nuclear weapons, people willing to blow up themselves and/or their children, and assorted other crazies make it nearly a sure bet that somewhere, someone, something is going to rock the boat we all live in.
Stay prepared!
Supply chain disruptions, inflation, unemployment, or a health disaster. Whatever happens, it just makes good sense to be ready to survive this disruption. For example. if 365 rolls of toilet paper increase your survival odds, I say do it. Why should you bet that you can get by with 30? You will use them all eventually.
Walrus, if you are wrong, what’s the result?
I think the stores might actually implode from so much material going out the door so quickly. ;-D
I remember Jonny Carson’s tiolet paper stunt. That’s going to happen to everything.
Walrus - There are two key unknown factors which will greatly impact your plans:
1) How others react. We all know not enough people are unprepared. if there is panic, unwarranted or not, it will throw the best prep plan out the window. Have lots of alternative plans - A, B, C, etc.
2) Power. This has two sub-impacts: it will GREATLY effect how people react. If they are scared, cold, hungry AND in the dark who knows. 2ndly, if your preps require cooking but you don’t have power, then what?
Of course, my supplies are not where I’d like them to be (3m) but we did just get a nice generator :) Once the bank account recovers a bit I’ll be working on getting it to 6m.
whats the CFR for a ground burst 1 MT plume 50 miles down wind say in LA or Seattle? hmmm I’m prepping for more than BF
Stopping Prepping??? If your entire outlook has been drastically changed like mine has, all I can say is good luck with that…
Walrus:
As a fellow Aussie, I just don’t know where to start to respond to your post. Have you actually read the “plans”? They are planning for the CFR to be 0.6% mate. See page 11 of the NSW “plan”. They estimate 12,500 deaths out of a NSW population of 7 million with 30% CAR.
They are advising people to have 3 days of food and water in case there are disruptions. In CASE there are disruptions?
Operation Cumpston assumed the air travellers were symptomatic with a fever. What are the implications if they were asymptomatic and mingled with the population for 3 or 4 days before having symptoms? Have a look at any mass transit focal point in any of the cities,and then use your logic to understand what we are facing if an infected person becomes a spreader there.
Tony Abbott says we are very well prepared because we have 5 million courses of Tamiflu on hand. An infected person needs 4 times the normal dose, so in fact we have just over 1 million courses of Tamiflu. That will take care of the essential workers, now what about the people who get ill? And there is a clade that is Tamiflu resistant already, so what is the plan if Tamiflu doesn’t work?
Can’t comment on the viability of CSL’s vaccine production plan, maybe it will be terrific. But what is the plan to distribute and vaccinate the entire population? It is not a trivial exercise, and it will have to be done very quickly.
Re the CFR being actually much lower because of unreported cases, is there seroprevalence data to substantiate that? Or is it another hope statement? I havn’t heard of seroprevalence results fom Indonesia, and the Vietnamese seroprevalence data is exactly opposite to that conclusion.
To give you an idea of why I am concerned about this topic, I spoke to someone in the Health department who was involved in putting the “plan” together, and we discussed the high CFR in Indonesia. He said “Oh the CFR will drop way down if it goes pandemic.” I asked why that would happen and he said “because H5N1 will combine with a human flu and we will have resistance to it and it will be much less virulent.” Then I asked why can’t H5N1 become pandemic from point mutation, as it has been mutating up to now to generate the various clades to date, and similar to H1N1 in 1918. The answer was, and are you ready for it? “Oh,we didn’t consider that.”
You get my point?
I’m not trying to be negative or defeatist, I just have very real concerns that in Australia we are not examining these “plans” with any critical evaluation as to the realities of a highly virulent pandemic. I am hearing alot of hopeful statements, and feel good communication coming from the authorities, but if you dig deeper into actually what is being done, the doubts arise.
But the H5N1 doesn’t care about press releases or any of that.