Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 16 October 2006 (provisional)
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 38 | 16 | 106 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 6 | 57 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 81 | 64 | 27 | 196 |
(From WHO as at 16 Oct)
Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
Thailand
India
Nepal
Nigeria
Australia
United Kingdom
Canada
United States of America
General
Link to news thread for 16 October (link News Reports for October 16 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
Oops got that India link a bit wrong, if it doesn’t work then use India II
Indonesia Summary provisional as Michelle in OK is on her day off (I think that is right) so I added the two deaths as reported by WHO but not in the previous update.
Good to see all the news hounds back with enthusiasm ;-)
Magnitude 6.5 undersea quake hits near Papua New Guinea
(Kyodo) _ A strong undersea earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.5 hit near Papua New Guinea on Tuesday morning, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
No Pacific-wide tsunami alert was issued and there were no immediate reports of damage.
The agency said on its website that the quake struck at 11:25 a.m. local time in the north of New Britain, an island located some 575 kilometers northeast of the country’s capital Port Moresby.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/16/D8KQ536G0.htm
As if they don’t have enough trouble!
GPs crucial in coping with pandemic influenza outbreak
General practitioners would be crucial in avoiding large numbers of deaths in Australia as a result of a pandemic influenza outbreak, researchers at The Australian National University have shown. The findings come as Australia’s health and emergency services converge on Brisbane tomorrow to stage the largest health crisis simulation in the nation’s history - Exercise Cumpston - which will test systems designed to cope with a pandemic flu outbreak.
Research team member Professor Marjan Kljakovic from the ANU Medical School said GPs would play a key role in containing pandemics, which might otherwise spread rapidly, crossing continents in days. He also said GPs would be doing this while providing ongoing care to patients with severe illnesses that are not flu related.
Keeping our children safe and secure: Pandemic flu and emergency preparedness
Scientists predict that the world is due for an influenza pandemic - a global outbreak from a new strain of flu - that would have a dramatic impact on our nation’s communities, schools, and families. History tells us that flu pandemics are a reality: in the past century alone, three of them caused widespread loss of life and the wholesale disruption of societies small and large. A flu outbreak today similar to the one that occurred in 1918 could potentially kill millions and profoundly affect institutions such as our nation’s school systems, which are teeming with children who are expected to have high rates of infection and are more likely than adults to spread the illness.
Full article:http://tinyurl.com/y8kydl
Some concerns of delay in flu shots for children discussed on vaccine delay thread. This article explains the problem.
Delay Expected in Flu Shots for Young Children
CHICAGO, Oct. 16, 2006---The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) is alerting parents that there will be a delay in getting flu shots for children 6 months of age through age 3 until at least November. Sanofi pasteur, the sole manufacturer of injectable flu vaccine (FluZone) approved for children 3 years of age and younger, announced a shipment delay. Plenty of FluZone will be available, but pediatricians will receive most of their FluZone supply in November and December.
Full article here: http://tinyurl.com/yhnjr9
Glad to see you back Annie.
Indonesia confirms 55th bird flu death by Bhimanto Suwastoyo Mon Oct 16, 11:26 PM ET
JAKARTA (AFP) - The death toll in Indonesia from bird flu rose to 55 after officials confirmed that a 27-year-old woman who died last week was infected with the virus.
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The death is the third to be confirmed in two days in Indonesia, which is grappling with the world’s highest number of deaths from avian influenza.
“Both tests showed her to be positively infected with the bird flu virus, making her the 55th fatal casualty” in Indonesia, said Tontro, an official at the health ministry’s national bird flu information centre.
Positive results from two Indonesian laboratories mean that the World Health Organization (WHO) includes the case in its records.
The woman from Central Java province, identified by the centre as Mistiyem, developed symptoms on October 8 and was hospitalised on October 12. She died a day later, according to a statement posted on the WHO website.
The WHO said the source of her exposure to the virus was currently under investigation.
The vast majority of cases in the archipelago nation have been spread by contact with infected poultry, though several cases of limited human-to-human transmission have also occurred here.
More human cases of the virus — 72 have now been reported in Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation — increase the possibility of the H5N1 virus mutating to become easily transmissible among people.
Scientists fear that this could lead to a global flu pandemic with a potential death toll of millions.
On Monday, the health ministry confirmed the deaths of a 67-year-old woman who died in West Java’s Bandung late Sunday and an 11-year-old boy, who died in Jakarta on Saturday.
Both were believed to have had contact with poultry before they died, the WHO statement said.
Health officials said that the woman had been suffering from encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain, believed to be caused by the virus and the first case of its type in Indonesia.
The UN’s senior bird flu official appealed to international donors last month to speed up the disbursement of promised aid to Indonesia to help it fight the spread of H5N1 among the population.
Officials here have said they need around 250 million dollars a year for the next three years to effectively combat the virus, but next to no funds have arrived since donors pledged millions at a conference in Beijing this year.
Critics have charged that the country, which was accused of initially covering up outbreaks, has been slow to fight bird flu.
Americans piled up Tamiflu on bird flu fear -report [link http://tinyurl.com/yx9tm3 ] Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:42 AM BST
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Fears of an outbreak of bird flu led Americans to hoard the anti-viral medicine Tamiflu in 2005, with prescriptions spiking most sharply when media coverage rose, a study released on Tuesday said.
Filled prescriptions for Tamiflu rose nearly five-fold between September and October of 2004 and the same period in 2005, according to the analysis by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and pharmacy benefits manager Medco Health Solutions Inc.
Because there was little or no influenza activity reported during these periods, researchers said the data suggest patients were stockpiling the drug over fears of an epidemic.
<snip> Roche suspended Tamiflu shipments to the United States last October because of fears people were hoarding it.
<snip>Researchers also analyzed media references to Tamiflu and found it tracked neatly with the boost in prescription rates.
“The correlation between the heightened U.S. media coverage around Tamiflu and the prescription activity for the drug between September and November in 2005 is uncanny,” said Robert Epstein, chief medical officer at Medco, which fills prescriptions for 55 million people in the U.S.
Last year, United States ordered 5 million treatment courses of Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline’s Relenza, both antiviral drugs that can prevent and treat influenza if used very quickly.
Australia ready for bird flu - Abbott [link http://tinyurl.com/y2xe87 ]
By Paul Osborne October 17, 2006 12:00
AUSTRALIA was as well-prepared for an outbreak of bird flu as any country but more drugs and equipment would be needed if it happened, federal Health Minister Tony Abbott said today. More than 1000 state and federal government officials today took part in a $4 million exercise at Brisbane international airport to test the country’s preparedness for an outbreak of avian influenza.
Chief medical officer Professor John Horvath said Exercise Cumpston `06 was essential to safeguard the nation in the case of a pandemic. “We know that there’s continuing evidence of poultry disease in our region and the WHO (World Health Organisation) put the risk level at an arbitrary 10 per cent,” Prof Horvath said.
“I don’t believe this has changed over a period of time, so our level of risk continues to be low, but real - therefore, exercises like this are essential so (that) we are appropriately trained and prepared.”
“If it happened tomorrow, obviously we would like to have more drugs, but we do have what, by international standards, is a very large stockpile and we are constantly adding to it,” Mr Abbott said.
<snip>
“If we did have a pandemic outbreak almost nothing would be enough, by the same token our preparations are very far advanced and, by international standards, they are very complete preparations,” he said.
Observers from the United Nations and more than 50 countries were at exercise, named after the first head of the federal health department Dr John Cumpston.
Malaysia deploys ‘chicken guards’ against bird flu [link http://tinyurl.com/tjnk5 ]
Agence France-Presse Last updated 02:11pm (Mla time) 10/17/2006
KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia has deployed “chicken guards” to prevent bird flu from entering Sabah state on Borneo Island by raising the alarm if the virus is introduced by migratory birds, a report said Tuesday.
The “sentinel flock” is being housed in a specially built shed in the tourist destination of Kota Kinabalu, with openings to allow wild birds to mingle and share food with the poultry, the New Straits Times said.
Experts will monitor the chickens to see if they become infected, and then take measures to stop the avian influenza virus from spreading to domestic flocks.
<snip> Sabah state has had no cases of bird flu as yet, but because it borders the Indonesian province of Kalimantan, where the disease has been widespread among poultry, it must remain on high alert, he said. [more .. ]
Tuesday, October 17 2006 11:32 WIB
(software translation)
Bandung — MIOL: “Agus Rohana, 35, the patient suspect bird flu, that since Monday (16/10) was treated in isolation space Framboyan the Handsome Sadikin Hospital (RSHS) Bandung, West Java (West Java), experienced the disturbance to the lungs, or pneumonia. So needed the respirator, beside the temperature of his body was still uncertain.
The chairman of the team of the control of bird flu of RSHS Bandung Hadi Jusuf, said was based on results of the medical research that was carried out by the team of the control doctor of RSHS bird flu for one day, evidently villagers’s lungs the Dayeuhkolot Subdistrict, the Bandung Regency experienced the disturbance, beside the temperature of his body was not yet stable.
Nevertheless, explained Hadi, his side still could not say whether Agus positive was affected by the bird flu virus or not. Ganguan on the lungs and the temperature of Agus’s body that unstable, still could not be categorised positive the bird flu virus.
“So, the team of the doctor RSHS today sends the sample of Agus’s blood to the Department’s laboratory of the Health in Jakarta,” said Hadi, on Tuesday.
The disturbance to Agus’s lungs unlike that was experienced Kokom lunar, that died, on Sunday night (17/10). Because of the disturbance to the Kokom lungs resulting from the attack of the bird flu virus.
The “disturbance to Agus’s lungs was not as serious as being experienced by Kokom.”
Only resulting from the disturbance on his lungs, Agus experienced the disturbance of breathing and needed equipment to stabilise again his breathing, said Hadi.
Agus was the 64th patient who was treated in space of the Poinciana Tree isolation of RSHS Bandung. The disturbance of breathing that was experienced by Agus for 10 days.
To make the maintenance effective, the team of the doctor RSHS increased several medicines that were needed, apart from (medicine) antibiotik.
Usually after being given by the addition of the patient’s medicine suspect bird flu will come back was normal like originally, except that has been affected (bird flu),” he explained.
Since the last two month, Agus, that also the fish businessman, maintained belasan the tail of the chicken. However, 10 days or the last 12 days the chicken peliharaa him that died suddenly. Two days after his chicken died, Agus experienced the disturbance of breathing and the temperature of his body was high, and immediately was brought.”
Veterinary on alert over bird flu
“Veterinary officers are on high alert in the Rift Valley region following fresh reports that bird flu cases have been reported in Juba in Southern Sudan.
According to the Rift Valley Provincial Director of Veterinary Services Dr. Geoffrey Mutai, active surveillance has been initiated in Turkana district to look out for any possible signs of the disease at the Kenyan- Sudan border.
Several months ago, poultry farmers in the region lamented that they had lost considerably following reports that bird flu cases had been confirmed in Nigeria. …”
Oct 17 2006 North Warwickshire
“SCIENTISTS have ruled out deliberate poisoning after 20 dead and dying pigeons were found in a Hinckley churchyard.
Initial post-mortem reports indicate that the birds died from a localised virus. Bird flu has been ruled out.
The birds were discovered earlier this month at St Mary’s graveyard in Hinckley and were taken away for examination by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
The department’s veterinary laboratories agency has ruled out bird flu.
Their scientists say a virus is thought to be responsible and are carrying out more detailed tests to confirm their initial diagnosis.
This is a story about a trial airplane plan This is a test, just a test.
Braced for bird flu
“Customs officers, police and health workers were taking part in a $4 million exercise to test Australia’s readiness for a deadly outbreak of bird flu….
On board were 150 patients, two of whom were seriously ill and two more who were feeling a little unwell. All were actually actors from Brisbane but they played their parts with enthusiasm as they were screened by doctors on the flight and in the arrivals lounge…. This is the largest ever health exercise simulated in Australia and the largest anywhere in the world to deal with a pandemic of bird flu,” Mr Abbott said…. Pressing handkerchiefs and masks to their faces, they were bundled through passport control and met by a nurse wearing a head-to-toe infection control suit….
comment Rather than “uncanny” the correlation suggests that some people would take action to help themselves if the government or media gave them information on the likelihood of pandemic and the shortages and difficulties that would follow.
<snip>“The correlation between the heightened U.S. media coverage around Tamiflu and the prescription activity for the drug between September and November in 2005 is uncanny,” said Robert Epstein, chief medical officer at Medco, which fills prescriptions for 55 million people in the U.S. <snip> (Annie B at 4:06)
This could be an important event
China Reports New H5N1 Bird Flu Outbreak
“new outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu killed 985 chickens in China’s northern region of Inner Mongolia, a state news agency reported Saturday.
The discovery in a village near the city of Baotou prompted authorities to destroy 8,990 other chickens to prevent the virus from spreading, the Xinhua News Agency said….
Health experts have warned that China is bound to suffer more human cases if it can’t stop further outbreaks in poultry. China has suffered 13 human deaths from bird flu, …”
DennisC at 12:06
The China story is dated Sept 30th; it’s not a new outbreak.
AlohaOR – at 12:23 Thanks, I needed that.
Governments still dither on bird flu, study finds
article is here
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor - Reuters 1 hour, 51 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A third of countries trying to plan for a possible bird flu pandemic have not made any decision on who would be first in line for scarce vaccinations and antiviral drugs, U.S. and Israeli researchers said on Tuesday.
And not a single country has guidelines on how to distribute limited numbers of ventilators and face masks in case of such a global epidemic, the survey of 45 national plans showed…..
….“At current capacity, we cannot expect to vaccinate more than 14 percent of the world’s population within a year of a pandemic,” the researchers wrote.
“Similarly, although manufacturing capacity has recently quadrupled, it is estimated to take a decade to produce enough of the antiviral medication oseltamivir for 20 percent of the world’s population.”
This is even with generic drug manufacturers in Bangladesh, Algeria, India, and China producing the drug.
Most countries that do have a plan for distributing drugs and vaccines, including the United States, put health care workers at the top of the list.
Some place children high up, while others target essential service workers, such as communications and telecommunications workers, fire fighters, key government decision makers and power supply workers, the survey found.
The BBC version of the study in the article at 15:03 is here, with some additional findings.
“…It also found almost half of the countries studied had prioritised children, despite a WHO recommendation against it.
The report said it was also unclear why vaccine and antiviral medications had been singled out for treatment when there is likely to be a shortage of many resources.
It said further guidance was needed to address whether schemes for ventilator masks and hospital beds are necessary.
It is the first study to look at prioritisation decisions in developed and developing countries.
Professor John Oxford, a virologist at Queen Mary School of Medicine, London, said he was not surprised at the variations in plans betweens countries.
“Only once the disease is moving will we know who it’s targeting. There’s going to be an element of ‘wait and see’.”
He said antivirals, vaccines and hygiene levels were all key to intervening in a pandemic.
He added the study could potentially be a “huge contribution” towards helping countries further develop their plans…..”
comment I was unaware of the WHO recommendations re: children
From a different source, related to hoarding of Tamiflu:
Further findings of the study showed that among age groups, the highest prescription rates in 2005 were for persons aged 50–64 years, despite the fact that those 65 years and older experience more annual influenza disease; and there was a seven-fold increase in Tamiflu prescriptions for children under 18 from 2004 to 2005.
Another finding of the investigation revealed a correlation between a physician’s years out of medical school and his or her rate of Tamiflu prescribing. Older, more experienced physicians, regardless of specialty, prescribed more Tamiflu than younger, more recently trained physicians.
Apologies; forgot the link. It’s biz.Yahoo.com
a new Jama report but about what we already “knew”: cytokine storm
JAMA Vol. 296 No. 15, October 18, 2006
Avian Flu’s Lethality
“H5N1 avian influenza virus replicates very aggressively in humans, and these high viral levels set off an overwhelming inflammatory response,…
Researchers at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit at the Hospital for Tropical Disease in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, studied 18 patients infected with H5N1 influenza and 8 patients with 2 types of human influenza. Those infected with H5N1 virus had much higher levels of virus in the throat compared with those infected with the other viruses. In addition, levels of some inflammatory cytokines and chemokines were correlated with viral load and were highest in the patients who died. One cytokine, interleukin 8, is produced by bronchial epithelial cells and may play a role in acute respiratory distress…”
Taiwan
Taiwan steps up efforts against bird flu
Tuesday, October 17, 2006 (Taipei):
Taiwan is covering its poultry and pig farms with nets to prevent migratory birds from infecting local flocks and livestock with the H5N1 bird flu virus.
<snip>
As a precaution against the spread of the disease, Taiwan’s Cabinet allocated 1 billion New Taiwan dollars ($30 million) toward plastic and steel netting to cover the island’s 20,000 poultry and pig farms.
Farm owners are expected to cover half their costs…
Comment:
plastic and steel netting to cover the island’s 20,000 poultry and pig farms.
I cannot help but think that bird poop will go through the netting. On sick goose perched on the net and…..
do they make N95 bird netting?
I cannot help but think what a waste of time and resources!
Actually, that’s part of standard biosecurity measures against the spread of avian flu.
Which puts Taiwan ahead of most other Asian countries…
This is probably a dumb question, but what about other animals (mice, cockroaches) tracking through the bird feces from the unnetted area into the netted area?
still seems like a bandaid. what about the untold thousands of chickens still free range in all these villages?
I am about to create the News Summary for today then I will start a new thread so you might like to hold your posting for about 30–40 minutes. Cheers and thanks