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Forum: Bird Flu and You Robt Webster in AARP Magazine Nov Dec 2006

09 October 2006

Grace RN – at 18:39

Sorry I can’t make the title of this thread any shorter!

In Nov/Dec 2006 AARP Magazine pages 34–39 Dr Robert Webster is interviewed [this interview took place Aug 2006] about H5N1. I was impressed that AARP interviewed, IMHO, a scientist who is one of the most knowledgeable about this subject on the planet today. The article (which is not available online) identified him as a leader in understanding flu viruses.

It says: “He sees in it (H5N1) the potential for an influenza pandemic similar to the one in 1918″…… “For 40 years I’ve been saying we’re bound to have another worldwide influenza event”…”this one is the closest we’ve gotten to it. I hope to God it doesn’t occur, because this is the worst influenza virus I’ve ever seen in terms oif its killing capacity in animals. You put it into chickens this afternoon, they’re all dead tomorrow.”

snip

Q “If H5N1 mutates, what could our readers do to protect themselves?”

“I’d say: If they have a house in the hills, then go to it-and stay there for 3 months”

The man is consistent. I am at a loss to understand why, when someone with his knowledge and stature in virology says this virus is the worst one we’ve got, people still dismiss it.

Goju – at 18:49

My mother called me from Florida yasterday to read me the article!

She was tickled at Websters wife’s comments.

Texas Rose – at 18:56

I’m glad you pointed out this article. It was one of the most upfront articles about the need to be prepared.

Science Teacher – at 19:21
Science Teacher – at 19:25

It makes me wonder why an interview like this doesn’t appear somewhere that more people would see it. The author is also a science correspondent for the New York Times.

If we have a wiki page on the other side for quotes from scientists(?), this should be at the top.

seazar – at 20:44

i have to admit - that i was disappointed that he said it might mutate and be a pandemic within 5 years or it may fizzle out.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:23

Is there anyway someone has the article maybe scan it so it could be placed on here?

MAV in Colorado – at 22:25

or a link?

10 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 00:27

Grace. Thanks and I agree. He couldn’t have been more consistent over the past 18 months…I see absolutely no retreat from his past comments and I do not expect to see any…

…I think I read recently somewhere that we are presently very close to the longest recorded inter-pandemic period in history…that in itself would put the odds quite high of a pandemic in the near future without all of the other supporting evidence.

Grace RN – at 11:05

There is no direct link to the article thru the AARP Magazine web site.. http://www.aarpmagazine.org/inprint.html.

If someone can tell me how to scan and add it or I’d be happy to fax the article to them if they know how to do that please let me know.

email puub@comcast.net

17 October 2006

Jane – at 17:11

My copy of AARP magazine came today. I’m glad to finally read the two-page interview with Dr. Robert Webster. He said his wife “didn’t really want to believe that it was necessary to stockpile food. So I started to do it.”

<snip> Q-Michael Leavitt, secretary of Health and Human Services, has warned that if avian flu hits, we shouldn’t count of help from the federal government. Do you find that shocking?

A-I think that Leavitt is very responsible when he tells people to get their own houses in order. If this killer virus hits, the country’s infrastructure will fall apart. The hospitals will be overloaded. Most of us don’t realize how interdependent we are for food. In a pandemic, people would get sick, the gasoline supply would stop, food would not be there. <snip>

Here’s the table of contents, but Webster’s interview is not online. I wrote them a note from this site last week, but I don’t see the link now. When I complained that the article wasn’t online, they asked if I wanted them to send me a copy, but I didn’t say yes, or click on it. Elsewhere on their site they say the magazine is available for $12.50, if you join the organization.

http://www.aarpmagazine.org/inprint.html

Tom DVM – at 17:16

Jane Thanks.

18 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:09

I think my parents must have just gotten this magazine and read the article — suddenly they are asking me questions.

crfullmoon – at 08:22

Glad to hear! Hope word spreads quickly.

OKbirdwatcherat 11:16

According to the AARP web site, they have 35 million members. I think all members receive the magazine, so that’s potentially a high readership of the Webster interview. They also claim to be the “World’s Largest Circulation Magazine.” Anxious to see if it prompts any comments/questions from my dad - he mostly dismissed the subject when I brought it up several months ago.

JWB – at 11:44

OKbirdwatcher – at 11:16

According to the AARP web site, they have 35 million members.


OK. Take 10% decide to go do some sort of prepping before the weekend, and keep in mind that all have them have personally witnessed more hard times than most of us.

What will 3,500,000 people do to the shelves if they just buy an extra two to three weeks of food before the weekend?

Good thing it’s lunchtime right now! I’m heading to Sam’s!

OKbirdwatcherat 13:06

JWB - My thoughts exactly. We’ll see.

JWB – at 13:34

OKbirdwatcher – at 13:06

This is just too much of a cowinkidink. I did go to Sam’s. I just got back. There is a older gentleman that I work with who is semi-retired, that just came back from lunch. He said to me, “I want to thank you for coming in to work today! I just cashed my Social Security check! (yeah,yeah. chuckle,chuckle. laugh,laugh).

So I guess yesterday is the day the checks arrived in the mail.

I’ll have to quiz him on the mag article. He probably is an ARRP member.

JWB – at 13:36

Make that AARP…

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:43

Here ya go:

Bird Flu and You

Virologist Robert G. Webster believes a flu mutation could produce a “national disaster.” Some call him alarmist. You be the judge.

In the world of public health, Robert G. Webster is a giant. Forty years ago the virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis made history when he helped reformulate the routine flu shot. Before Webster’s reengineering, flu vaccines could have serious side effects; now, even babies can be inoculated.

Webster, 74, is also a leader in understanding how flu viruses emerge and spread. He’s been working in recent years to try to understand avian flu – a strain of influenza virus that alarms him as no flu he’s ever studied has. He sees in it the potential for an influenza pandemic similar to the one in 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million people worldwide.

“For 40 years, I’ve been saying that we’re bound to have another worldwide influenza event,” says Webster. “I have to tell you: this one is the closest we’ve gotten to that. I hope to God it doesn’t occur, because this is the worst influenza I’ve ever seen in terms of its killing capacity in animals. You put in into chickens this afternoon, they’re all dead tomorrow.”

Webster recently sat down with AARP The Magazine to talk about this frightening new bug – and what we can do now to prepare for it.

Q So far avian flu has killed over a hundred people – most of them in rural Asia. That’s horrible, of course, but it doesn’t add up to a pandemic. At what point should Americans become alarmed?

We have a big problem in the virus mutates, if it changes its genetic structure. As we speak now [August], people appear to catch it from infected birds. But if the virus changes so that it can be transmitted from one human to another, the influenza will spread rapidly.

Q How is the avian flu similar to the microorganism that caused the 1918 flu pandemic?

It’s a distant cousin. The 1918 virus was definitely a bird flu; it was labeled by scientists as H1N1. The one we are watching today is H5N1.

The current area of concern is in Indonesia, where eight people in one family got avian flu and seven of them died. The available information supports the idea that the virus did transmit there from person to person, perhaps as many as two times. The good news is there have been no further transmissions in this area so far.

Q If the virus hasn’t yet mutated, why worry about it right now?

Because preparedness for potential public health emergencies is necessary – and useful. If you think about the SARS outbreak in Asia and Canada three years ago, the reason that it was identified so quickly was that the infrastructure for studying bird flu was in place in Hong Kong. SARS is caused by a virus. Researchers looking for the avian flu identified SARS, which made it possible to get a vaccine ready within months.

We may have five years to get things right before H5N1 either becomes a pandemic - or fizzles out. If we have that time, we’ll probably get it right. That’s enough time for scientists to develop new vaccines and antiviral medications, and get them manufactured and stockpiled. Whether or not we ever use them, just having them will be an enormous advantage.

Q But wouldn’t it cost a fortune to stockpile a vaccine for something – a pandemic – that may never happen?

This is piddling little. You have to put the cost into perspective. We spend billions on aircraft carriers, this vaccine is just as necessary for national defense. A natural disaster of this sort would cost probably tens of billions of dollars. Avian flu vaccine is an investment in the future of humanity.

Q Why is no vaccine ready now?

Since the virus that’s going to spread human to human doesn’t exist, we can’t make a vaccine against it yet. But we are not sitting on our hands. Her at St. Jude, we’ve made several seed stocks for vaccines against different strains of the virus. And the Centers for disease Control and Prevention has already made a seed stock for a vaccine against the Indonesian strain, in case this virus does acquire the ability to transmit.

Q If H5N1 mutates, what could our readers do to protect themselves?

You mean if they can’t get a vaccine? I’d say if they have a house in the hills, then go to it – and stay there for three months. And have enough food there already so that you can stay as far away from your neighbors as possible.

Q So you are advocating that people stockpile food and medicine?

Absolutely. Most of us can afford to buy dry food for three months. One bottle of Clorox is enough to purify all of the water you would need out of the local river. [For more tips on protecting yourself in the event of a pandemic, see www.pandemicflu.gov]

Q Michael Leavitt, secretary of Health and Human Services, has warned that if avian flu hits, we shouldn’t count on help from the federal government. Do you find that shocking?

I think Leavitt is very responsible when he tells people to get their own houses in order. If this killer virus hits, the country’s infrastructure will fall apart. The hospitals will be overloaded. Most of us don’t realize how interdependent we are for food. In a pandemic, people would get sick, the gasoline supply would stop, food would not be there.

Q During Hurricane Katrina, the people that died were mostly old, left behind or forgotten in the emergency. Do you have some special advice for people residing in a senior community?

Yes, if people are living in senior facilities, it is important to inquire right now about their plans for an H5N1 emergency. They can’t put plans in place in the middle the event.

In the meantime, it would be wise for older people to get the standard flu vaccine. They should also get the pneumonia shot, because what kills many people, on top of the flu, is a secondary infection. And people should use common sense when it comes to their personal hygiene. Washing one’s hands is a great idea. People don’t do it often enough. If the avian flu strikes, you may not want to shake hands anymore. In Hong Kong, during SARS, no one shook hands.

Q Why get the standard flu shot?

It may do a little against the bird flu. A little. Another thing, if you can get the antiviral drugs, Tamifluor Relenza, have them on hand. But don’t use them until you know what you’re doing. A course of the drug is five days. You shouldn’t take it until you know H5N1 is in your community or household. How to take it will be in the press. I keep a supply myself. And I always take it with me when I travel – just in case I get exposed. [The American Medical Association does not recommend stockpiling antiviral medications. Some doctors will prescribe antivirals and others will not.–Ed.]

Q Is there any good news here?

On the scientific side, we’ve got a lot of new tools to fight this bug. Seven years ago we didn’t have Tamiflu. The strategy for making vaccines, as we have here at St Jude’s, didn’t exist six years ago. On the political side, Congress and George Bush have been putting in money. Given another five years, there may be further new scientific advances that we’ve only now started to think about.

Q Why do you do vaccine research at St. Jude, which is mostly known for its work on children’s cancers?

This institution’s ultimate aim is to stop catastrophic diseases in children. To manage cancer, you have to manage infectious diseases.

Q Does your wife ever say “Sweetheart, you’re a bit goulish”?

Well, yes. My wife didn’t really want to believe that it was necessary to stockpile food. So I started to do it.

Q Do you ever think of retirement?

Not at the moment. There are still contributions that I can make. So long as I’m making contributions, I’ll continue to do so.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:45

Thanks to Into the Woods on CE for the above

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