Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 17 October 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | !Oct-06 | !Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 38 | 18 | 108 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 6 | 57 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 81 | 64 | 27 | 196 |
(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update)
Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Taiwan
India
Kenya
Australia
United Kingdom
United States of America
General
Link to news thread for 17 October (link News Reports for October 17 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
This is a story that just won’t go away and now its coming into its own—DNA computers. Interesting new technology coming our way.
Researchers make major gains in DNA-based computers
17/10/2006 - Scientists have come up with a DNA-based computer, which could lead to faster, more accurate tests for diagnosing West Nile Virus and bird flu more quicker and more accurately.
The development is a step forward for scientists, who have attempted to build computers out of DNA. But getting nano-sized pieces of DNA to act as electrical circuits capable of problem solving like their silicon counterparts has remained a challenge.
“These DNA computers won’t compete with silicon computing in terms of speed, but their advantage is that they can be used in fluids, such as a sample of blood or in the body, and make decisions at the level of a single cell,” she added.
Full article here: http://tinyurl.com/y4qhzu
Copied from the India II Thread and worth everyone’s reading:
witness – at 01:26
Hey Guys,What do you think this sounds like? “NUWAKOT,AUG 18 - Unprecedented epidemic of an unidentified disease has killed at least 14 people, including seven children, in Netini VDC, a far eastern village of the district,in the past few weeks. The disease, which was first detected in DOGS AND CHICKENS in the last week of June, had started spreading to humans. Major symptoms of the disease are high fever together with BLEEDING FROM THE NOSE AND MOUTH AT THE TIME OF DEATH.”-----It might be worthwhile to start mapping these reports.In my mind, this report leaves little doubt that India needs to be monitered. Although in my mind , the chicken may have already flown the coop.
Kim in OK – at 01:36
link to the above article
That’s Just Ducky! – at 01:49
Here’s another news story from Sept. 21,2006. Another village, 5 people dead, 2 children. Same unidentified disease.
http://english.people.com.cn/200609/…21_304959.html
Five die of unidentified disease in western Nepal
Five people died of unidentified disease at remote Chamchet village of western Gorkha district during last two weeks, local Nepal Samacharpatra daily reported here on Thursday.
“Five people including two children died of unidentified disease in the area, some 150 km northwest of capital Kathmandu,” the Nepali language daily reported, quoting Gopal Lama, former village chief, as saying.
But, officials at the District Health Office said they were uninformed about the disease in the area.
Although there is a sub-health post at the village, only a female health volunteer has been working there for last two years, according to daily.
Source: Xinhua
anon mc. Thanks. This is not good news to say the least. Again, what is going on in those countries we don’t get news from including North Korea that not only has recieved food aid from China but probably has also recieved live carrier chickens as well.
anon mc at 2:32 … COMMENT
the first article about the “epidemic” in Nepal was posted here soon after it originally ran. Over the next week or so, the incident was investigated and follow up reports indicated that the report had been overinflated, and in fact it was a combination of disease, wasn’t as bad as the initial report and if I am not mistaken, no one even died. It has been long enough ago that I don’t have a link, but I think my memory serves me on this one.
I’m not sure of the second account.
Snowhound1 – at 09:44 “if I am not mistaken, no one even died”
From RSOE at 15/10/2006 - 12:28:50 It is listed in the emergency alerts as an “Epidemic Hazard”.
“At least eight people, including four children, had died and some 400 taken ill by a mysterious disease in Belapur village on Indo-Nepal border, district health officials said. Lack of proper treatment and absence of health workers in the remote village has worsened the situation, the officials said. Those infected by the disease showed symptoms of headache and breathing problems, they said, adding the disease remained unidentified. “The disease could be caused by viral infection. It could also be an illness that is similar to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome),” Makahali Zonal Hospital head, Dr Suvesh Raj Kayastha, said. “
http://tinyurl.com/y6wmq9 Cell based vaccine making good progress. They have also done research using the latest WHO recommended Indonesia strain and it shows that if you are inoculated against one H5N1 strain it protects you better than they thought against other H5N1 variants.
DennicC- I was referring to the first article. It has been addressed here at least twice that I know of…I said I was unaware of the second account of which I think you reference. :)
one of the reports in the last few weeks from Nepal was: the 1000 pig deaths: http://tinyurl.com/y65q4m
and the children’s (10 and below)deaths from “encephalitis” in northern India and Nepal. At the time they though it was Japaneese encephalitis but it did not “test out”. Which is a bit of a concern now that we know that BF can cause encephalitis and can attack the brain (see latest Indo cases). I cannot find a “live link” about that right now but you can find a discussion at another BF forum (the more radical one) http://tinyurl.com/yyy6da
Hope that helps. The thing is the people in Nepal just don’t know what is happening, they have very limited testing and there are pigs, chickens and children dead - but no BF testing that I know of. Dead pigs and birds, some cases of encephilitis, some with bleeding from the mouth and nose, and so on could be signs or it could be a bunch of other things. The thing that strikes me is that it is real close (as bird fly/migrate= roosting area) to the epicenter of the Q lake source of all this.
Could someone post a link to today’s effect measure article about Tamiflu and what happens when massive amounts are being used? I don’t know how to do it and it is important.
For the second report, until we have some actual solid information, we really can’t say. For all we know, it could be anything from seasonal flu to encephalitis in a weakened population. They have zero modern health care there. Zero. If you read the report the regional “hospital” doesn’t even have doctors.
Makes me glad to live in the US.
Here’s the link to Effect Measure about tamiflu.
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2006/10/tamiflu_down_the_drain.php#more
Effect Measure article expresses concern that millions of people around the globe will be taking Tamiflu at the same time, therefore their excretions will load the sewers with the unmetabolized portion of the drug. Questions: what happens to wildlife? and will this lead to tamilflu-resistant forms of the virus?
NEWS
Drug resistance in humans may be linked to chickens
On the web here
NEWS
HEALTH DEPARTMENT OFFERING FREE FLU SHOTS DURING STATEWIDE EXERCISE
[snip]
On the Web here
I put this up on the tamiflu resistance in animals via toilet water web site…
We talked about the reuse of tamiflu several months ago on fluwikie and it was the consensus and I believe even Roach was contacted at the time; that tamiflu is destroyed by first pass liver degradation hence the pro-drug design. So even if the rivers are full of it and the animals are ingesting it, its not actually getting into their system. So by my understanding this is a non issue. I would be more concerned with all the humans taking it incorrectly and causing increased resistance that way.
International study on prioritzing recipients of antivirals and vaccines shows that fewer countries have dealt with who should get antivirals, although that’s the med. that’s most readily available. Also countries differ on who should get it, after HCW. There’s no evidence that inactivated vaccines for children would help, to paraphrase WHO. Thirty percent of countries have done no prioritizing.
<snip>The authors conclude that “attention to prioritization and its ethical implications may help to reduce death and disease burden, and minimize political destabilization and claims of injustice.” <snip>
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/10/061017085157.htm
http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,1090827,00.html A Swine Mess A mysterious outbreak of pig-borne disease in China has international observers concerned
Chinese authorities say they have identified the virulent disease that appeared in Sichuan province in late June, which has sickened a suspected 212 people so far and killed 38: Streptococcus suis, a bacteria in pigs that very rarely infects human beings. Last week, a team of experts from Hong Kong who assisted in the investigation backed the diagnosis. “All the evidence collected at this stage showed that the infections were caused by Streptococcus suis,” said Dr. Lam Ping-yan, Hong Kong’s Director of Health. But some international specialists aren’t convinced. Strep. suis has never caused an outbreak anywhere near as large as the one in Sichuan, and the high mortality rate and severe symptoms—which include bleeding under the skin in some cases—seem to be entirely new. “I’ve never before seen an outbreak of this type,” says Dr. Thomas Alexander, the retired University of Cambridge veterinary scientist who first identified the bacteria in humans. “It just doesn’t sound like Strep.” Dr. Marcelo Gottschalk of the University of Montreal, the world’s top expert on Strep. suis, says China needs help analyzing the bacteria to see if it has mutated into a more virulent form. But so far, the country hasn’t shared the results of any such tests. “This is one of the main problems,” he says. “They do not have the expertise, but they do not ask for help.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it’s happy with China’s cooperation—and WHO Beijing spokesman Roy Wadia notes that the country isn’t required to notify anyone about Strep. suis infections, much less share information. The Ministry of Health says it has the situation under control, although suspicions about China’s openness on disease outbreaks, dating back to the 2003 SARS crisis, linger. “The Chinese have got to be transparent,” says Robert Webster, a bird-flu expert who has worked with China in the past. If not, neighboring countries—and the world—could pay the price.
Governor unveils early pandemic warning system
“ OMAHA, Neb. Nebraska has a new tool in the fight against pandemic flu and other infectious diseases.
Governor Dave Heineman today unveiled an early warning system that alerts health officials to changes that may signal an outbreak. The system uses a computer model that looks at factors such as school and business absenteeism, weather patterns and animal behavior. Those factors are monitored, and anomalies are investigated.
The governor said the technology alerts officials of a possible breakout well before hospital data can.”
“Sichuan Sheet” was discussed widely at Curevents Flu Clinic last year.
Canadian book release:
Doctors warn against pandemic fear-mongering
Updated Wed. Oct. 18 2006 7:36 AM ET
Mary Nersessian, CTV.ca News
Two Canadian emergency room physicians are urging against complacency in the wake of an imminent flu pandemic. But at the same time they warn against falling victim to fear-mongering.
[…snip]
(I dislike the spin they chose for that headline at 18:33 ) See article on p2 …”In the event of an influenza pandemic, there is a clear understanding that the vaccine supplier will as soon as possible produce vaccinations for Canadians,” he said.
But the Public Health Agency of Canada says on its website that it could take 6 to 12 months — depending on the number of doses required — to produce enough vaccine to protect all Canadians.
Though the physicians warn against jumping to any conclusions, they recommend putting together an emergency preparedness kit with basic supplies that will include:
Foods such as rice, lentils, beans, canned meats, high-energy protein bars, dry cereal and fruit, canned juices and bottled water
Prescribed medications and equipment such as needles for diabetics
Soap and/or alcohol-based hand sanitizer
“Comfort” medicines such as acetaminophen, ibuprofen, and Gravol
Thermometer, multivitamins, contraceptives, oral rehydration fluids
Soap and detergent for clothes and dishes
Flashlight, batteries, candles and matches
Portable radio, which is preferably a wind-up one
Manual can opener
Telephones that do not require an electrical outlet
Surgical or procedure masks and gloves
First aid kit;
Cash
Bicycle
Warm clothing and blankets”…
King County residents:
Make your voice count on a decision facing Americans about pandemic influenza…
Experts say chances of a deadly worldwide outbreak of flu are increasing.
Early in the outbreak, the United States will not have an adequate supply of vaccine or drugs and may have to use disease control measures such as closing schools and canceling major public gatherings.
Decisions about what control measures we should put in place and how they will work are not just for the experts to make. They need your help.
Sign up now to spend a day getting the additional facts you need, talking frankly about pandemic flu with other citizens, and sharing your views for public health officials.
WHEN: Saturday, November 4, 2006, 9 am to 3 pm WHERE: Northgate Community Center, 10510 5th Avenue NE, Seattle (across from Macy’s at Northgate Mall) FEE: free of charge, with breakfast, lunch & refreshments provided. PARKING: Parking is free at the Northgate Community Center, or across the street at Northgate Mall. The Northgate Park & Ride is 3 blocks away.
REGISTER: To register online for this important citizen group, please go to www.metrokc.gov/health/panfluforum To register by phone: please call Public Health-Seattle & King County at 206–296–4313, or 1–800–219–6670.
For more detailed information please visit: www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html
Participating organizations include: Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) | Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) | Public Health–Seattle & King County | Seattle Public Schools | The Keystone Center
Variant of Bird flu found in Ohio ducks
But now Channel 3 has learned that bird flu has turned up on our doorstep in northern Ohio. H5N1 has been found in birds in Ottawa County as well as in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland…It’s called a low pathogenic variety, or H5N1 North American Bird Flu….Duck hunting season starts Saturday. If a hunter sees a sick duck, don’t eat it…
Panelists address global anxieties of today, tomorrow
Stanford Report, October 18, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/y4v3ru
The North Korean nuclear crisis and the looming threat of a global flu pandemic were among the hot-button issues addressed during an Oct. 14 forum moderated by veteran newsman Ted Koppel.
More than 4,000 people attended The Roundtable at Stanford. Titled “Anxious Times: Seeing Beyond a World of Perpetual Threats,” the two-hour panel discussion in Maples Pavilion featured prominent alumni and scholars. <snip>
this is from Pixie – at 19:36 on the Indo thread: I thought it should go here as well. No deaths but it is disconcerning.
‘Thousands of citizens were in Malang attacked by pneumonia MediaIndonesia / Minggu, 15 Oktober 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/am6wk
Malang — MIOL: the Health Service of the Government of the Regency (the Regional Government) Malang, East Java stated at this time thousands of citizens were attacked by the pneumonia illness. This illness sufferer was dominated by under age children five years. …
I am just creating the News Summary then I will start a new thread so you might like to hold your posting for about 30 minutes.
Cheers and thanks
By sciencebase
Posted on Thu Oct 19, 2006
“Tamiflu the anti-flu drug will not be a panacea for combating an avian influenza pandemic. It could cause serious environmental problems as well as encouraging the emergence of a new strain of avian flu.
Reporting in the current issue of Environmental Health Perspectives, researchers at the UK’s Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) describe the likely effects of widespread antiviral treatment for a flu pandemic, on wildlife and the natural environment.
Tamiflu is currently recommended worldwide for the prevention and treatment of pandemic influenza infection.
Lead researcher Dr Andrew Singer, said “An antiviral drug has never been widely used before, so we need to determine what might happen. During a flu pandemic, millions of people will all take Tamiflu at the same time. Over just 8 or 9 weeks, massive amounts of the drug will be expelled in sewage and find its way into the rivers. It could have huge effects on the fish and other wildlife.”
The build up of Tamiflu in rivers is likely to cause the avian influenza virus in ducks to become resistant to it, eventually resulting in a new wave of flu that is unaffected by the Tamiflu drug. People in south-east Asia, for example, could be more at risk from contracting the new strain of influenza because they have close and frequent contact with wildfowl. - excerpt.