Will we ever know when the risk of human to human H5N1 flu has past? Or will we simply live month to month, year to year holding our breath forevermore? Is there a point when it can be assumed that if H5N1 hasn’t gone H2H, it’s not going to?
Sometimes I wish the pandemic would just happen already. Only because I am so tired of worrying each day “if this is it”. All the bf energy in Asia has me in a constant state of fear. Prepping helps. But I am tired of this hanging over me all the time. I really DON’T want it to happen, but I’m sick of the burden of worry, does that make sense?
Nervous Nellie – at 11:05, excellent question. Can any of our resident experts weigh in? I was also wondering if this is a virus that will just continue to be with us as so many other viruses are, or if there is a dying out point.
Perhaps it is always something we will have to be prepared against; it certainly makes us more prepared against smaller, local, limited duration, non-contagious disasters.
Given the population density, travel, and continuing invasion into previously undisturbed ecosystems, the chances some new pandemic will be part of our future seems likely.
Sure, I do realize that we always live with the chance (and the eventuality) of some kind of pandemic. I was just wondering whether anyone knows whether this particular one might eventually burn out and disappear as a risk a la Sars.
My understanding is that H5N1 will always be with us and that most experts agree that, based on the history of pandemics, we are overdue for one. If it doesn’t turn out to be H5N1, then it will be a different virus. Its not a matter of “if” but “when.”
No, no one “knows” for sure. BF is now endemic in Asia and much of Eurasia. In birds it is not going away. Some say that because it has not caused a pandemic in 10 years it is less likely to as time goes on. These people as blowing smoke, as there is NO scientific proof for that line of reasoning.
As to SARS we do not know for sure that the risk of it reappearing is actually low. We know a great deal about viruses in lab enviroments but very little about how they grow and evolve in the real world. A good primer is “ The Coming Plague “ by Laurie Garrett. She explores the interaction between man and microbs and how the ecocology of both affects man.
We swim in a sea of tiny creatures, many of switch can and will kill us if something goes wrong. Our bodies have evolved over thousands of years to deal with most of them. Prepare to survive what you reasonablly can, make it a lifestyle, and get on with your life. Kelly
anon at 11:14, I can understand your anxiety and I know it’s very unpleasant. The more I read and learn about influenza, the more I think there is no such thing as ‘getting it over with’. There will always be pandemic threat from some virus and the only way to deal with that is to be prepared and alert, which you are doing. That and give it some time. Eventually you will feel calmer and monitoring the flu situation will just be the back drop for your life, not your main focus. To be honest this spring I was having alot of trouble with anxiety about pandemic threat and due to the demands of my life I’ve been forced to spend a large part of my time and energy away from flu monitoring over the summer. I won’t be home for a few more weeks yet, still on the road working. I think it’s been really a good thing for me. Yes, I’m still very concerned. Yes, I’m still prepping. Yes I’m still watching, but I feel alot more balanced about it all now. Maybe it would be good for you to take a few days(or more) and do something you really enjoy or visit friends and family. Enjoy your life. I hope that helps.
Np1 (Kelly), thanks for the reminder. I read ‘Monster at the Door’ recently (definitely not light summer reading, oh well :-) and meant to get a copy of ‘The Coming Plague’.
MaMa – at 11:55 I read ‘Monster at the Door’ recently.
Definitely not a vacation “beach book”!
Hillbilly Bill, no not at all! I’d been meaning to read it for awhile and finally got to it on a 6 hour car trip, that’s a whole lot to digest in one sitting:-) It was a very good book though, well-written and very accessible to the average person.
I hope your summer has been an enjoyable one! We’ve had the best summer weather in 5 years “up” here in Manitoba…
I have a question and hopefully someone can answer it. The past week or two we have been reading about 46 new suspected cases, added to the 96 or so people with flu symtoms in thailand or wherever, and I never ever hear the follow ups. Have I been missing something?
MaMa – at 12:23
It was definitely the right book for me to read to get a good understanding of how we got where we are today. I agree that it is understandable and well written.
I’m glad you are having a great summer and business has been good. We all miss your postings and will be glad when you are back full-time!
The Thailand suspected cases tend to turn out to be regular flu, they are on high alert over there and any flu triggers a suspicion. As to when this is over… ahh never is the answer you’ll receive as a pandemic is inevitable. However H5N1 could peter out in birds over the next 24 to 36 months. Then the current fear would be over (speculation on my part) or someone might make some really really successful vaccine/medicine and this could be done with (at least a greatly reduce fear)
my current feelings lean toward it petering out, but just barely… versus it turning pandemic in the next six months. I await further developments as I’m sure you all do.
Moeb has pretty much expressed my feelings, that it will peter out and we will dodge the bullet. But every now and then an event will goose me into closer scrutiny. I trust nothing out of China. I had been considering contacting the Gates foundation initially to help fund culling of the birds and flu info, Then something happening in Indonesia made me feel. Oh whats the use, nothing will change these people or even us in the West. WE will (the human species) always think we individually know best, circumvent rules, ignore authority , (even benign) be smart asses so to speak and do things for our own self interest that would ensure the pandemic arrives. It has been this way since Oct, when I started following this. Yet with all the self interest, bumbling, under the cover secrecy it hasn’t gone completely wild. Was the culling, the isolation of the sick the reason. I don’t think so. When things are fated to happen, (obviously I believe in fate) they will, regardless of the most stringent of precautions. It just isn’t quite the time to evolve. Something will goose it along, and it will explode. What that is, I can’t guess. My take on this is not scientific, merely a sense of calm that I carry around. If I ever feel really stressed I’ll be making a lot of noise.
It won’t ever peter out, espcially not in birds, there are too many strains. here is an excerpt from Wikipedia:
“H5N1 has mutated into a variety of strains with differing pathogenic profiles, some pathogenic to one species but not others, some pathogenic to multiple species. Each specific known genetic variation is traceable to a virus isolate of a specific case of infection. Through antigenic drift, H5N1 has mutated into dozens of highly pathogenic varieties divided into genetic clades which are known from specific isolates, but all currently belonging to genotype Z of avian influenza virus H5N1, now the dominant genotype.H5N1 isolates found in Hong Kong in 1997 and 2001 were not consistently transmitted efficiently among birds and did not cause significant disease in these animals. In 2002 new isolates of H5N1 were appearing within the bird population of Hong Kong. These new isolates caused acute disease, including severe neurological dysfunction and death in ducks. This was the first reported case of lethal influenza virus infection in wild aquatic birds since 1961. Genotype Z emerged in 2002 through reassortment from earlier highly pathogenic genotypes of H5N1 that first infected birds in China in 1996, and first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997. Genotype Z is endemic in birds in Southeast Asia, has created at least two clades that can infect humans, and is spreading across the globe in bird populations. Mutations are occurring within this genotype that are increasing their pathogenicity.Birds are also able to shed the virus for longer periods of time before their death, increasing the transmissibility of the virus.”
Bird Flu has been circulating in wild bird populations, and even hitting domestic poultry for hundreds of years. The H5N1 does appear to be more effective in killing domestic poultry.
But, when you look at the H2H transmission, or even the Human deaths associated with H5N1, it is difficult to say with certainty that h5N1 was the cause of every death being attributed to it. The virus has been found in all of these patients, but it is not possible to say that they were the cause of death in every one.
Also remember that the Pandemic is more likely to not be H5N1, or any Avian flu, for that matter. A pandemic is likely to occur, maybe not with the mortality of the 1918 one, but with advanced epidemiological awareness, we will likely be able to catch it in the early stages and limit the scope of any worldwide pandemic.
No reason to live your life in fear of a pandemic. Have faith in governments to protect its citizens and do what you need to do to make yourslef comfortbale, be it building a doomsday shelter or simply understanding the risks associated with the hype.
anon gov worker – at 16:02, You might want to slip into your flame retardant clothing right now. Just a suggestion…
banshee – at 16:06 LOL!!! That wouldn’t really happen here…would it?
anon gov worker – at 16:02
Not to worry. Have a cold one and turn on American Idol.
Anon Gov worker at 16:02:
Were you hired after Katrina? We all watched our faith in government’s ability to take care of us fade away—kinda like—the speeches that NO would be rebuilt better. Been for a visit lately?
anon gov worker. I respect your opinion…and I hope it is right…but an objective look at the facts and at 1918 and 1830 seem to point things in another direction…and your point about the next pandemic not being influenza..hmmmmmmmmmm.
It’s kickingbird! Just kidding…
Banshee:
ROTFLMAO! Good catch.
anon gov worker – at 16:02 Have faith in governments to protect its citizens
Thanks; I needed a laugh this afternoon.
…”with advanced epidemiological awareness, we will likely be able to catch it in the early stages and limit the scope of any worldwide pandemic”…
ROTFL! We wish! - Stand up comedy, or is the Brooklyn Bridge sales pitch next? (How many thousands of people are in the air on aircraft worldwide as we speak, and, influenza is contagious before symptoms? -And, the general public is not provisioning for supply-chain disruptions, and, local governments worldwide are not ready to “care for their citizens homebound by illness or quarantine”…) We mostly understand the risks associated with blindly trusting governments (nothing personal, but) - Tom DVM at 16:32 already said it, better than I did.
The “dosing” for government workers must have been increased after the latest, thwarted terror attack. God bless those meds.
MM:
Maybe they’re color coded to match the terror alerts. Let’s hope anon gov worker has a sense of humor…
Did he not get the memo, were on our own?
Roltflmao
anon gov worker – at 16:02 And you work for the government on which planet?? It certainly is not earth.
anon gov worker - at 16:02 How big is the gov you work for. Fed, State, County, City, Village, or even smaller yet? And what is your job description? PR? Court jester?
Closed to maintain Forum speed.