The Fluwiki is a wonderful place to take the pulse of the pandemic awakened and awakening worldwide. An open forum like this one, even when discussants are following the rules can be pretty loose. There is a pretty good likelihood that H5N1 will become pandemic this winter. This comes from someone who predicted it would happen last winter, so caveat emptor. None-the-less if you have studied the issue carefully and think there is a good chance that humankind is on the cusp of its next bout with pandemic influenza, NOW IS THE TIME TO GET READY.
What I am saying is quit gapping and start acting. The advice available on this site and others is all you need to get started. It is my opinion that we are clearly already well into WHO Pandemic Altert Phase 4 despite the WHO’s refusal to raise the level. My thinking is that as the virus approaches pandemic status, it will spend less time in each phase. This idea stems from the notion that as the virus spreads geographically and among species its total biomass is increasing exponentially. The increase in members of the H5N1 community increases the likelihood that it will achieve pandemic status by means of mutation, reassortment or recombination.
So, NOW IS THE TIME TO GET READY. We won’t be absolutely certain until late in the game. By that time, there will be a rush to prepare and the availability of plentiful and inexpensive supplies will be a thing of the past. The approach I advocate is to establish a Pandemic Survival Plan for your family. The plan should be structured with logical triggers that are predetermined. The pandemic triggers I use are tied to the behavior of the virus. As it advances, I advance my plan. This way, I can approach preparation in a rational way that avoids wasteful spending.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
The Doctor – at 00:01 “I advocate is to establish a Pandemic Survival Plan …logical triggers that are predetermined”
OK, would you list yours for an example.
Thank you Dr. Woodson.
“its total biomass is increasing exponentially”
There is also an interesting anaolgy to this in physics. In nuclear fission there is a thing called “critical mass”. It is that point where a runaway reaction takes place (read mushroom cloud). Now in a reactor, control rods mediate the process so that doesn’t happen (Ok Chernobyl) but anyway its not supposed to happen. In any case, it is facinating to conside that thatere may be a biologic analog to this vis-a-vis a pandemic strain. Just some more idle speculation.
Dr. Woodson, Thanks for posting. I look forward to your future posts and hope that if things start hoppin’ across the pond that you will not only start fishing but share with us as well. I would like to hear some more about your triggers as well. Helps me to see how others are doing. Thanks.
Dr. Woodson, Welcome and thank you.
What triggers should I look for to go kidnap my adult son and grandbaby and put them into lockdown and pull my daughter out of school?
Words to the wise.
Thank you Dr. woodson
Thank you Dr Woodson
Specific things to do, then:
Thanks Dr. Woodson, and thanks for the nursing care guide for the flu. I feel confident I would know how to help a person suffering from the flu - to at least prevent them from dying of dehydration.
Many, or most, myself included, agree that we are probably actually in Phase 4, evidence of increased H2H transmission. I am guessing that means more clusters of H2H (human to human) transmission. Small clusters, less than 20 people, sometimes H2H2H chains, but mostly H2H or H2H2H. Please someone correct if any of this is wrong. As far as we can tell, with what woefully little information we have to go on, it is transmissible, but it dies out at the end of a chain. Maybe it accidentally mutates into a form that is far less transmissible and it dies out with that chain. (Pure speculation from a lay person, by the way.) So it’s not sustained, and it’s not efficient. From what we can tell from the scant information we can manage to glean from the toggle-text news reports from Indonesia.
I think what a lot of us would be interested to know is, what signs might we see to indicate that we’re probably in Phase 5, evidence of significant H2H transmission.
I think that I read somewhere, maybe on the Wiki, that in phase 5 we would be seeing more clusters and Larger clusters with longer and longer chains. I think we’re looking for the percentage of total number of clusters that are H2H2H2H or longer. I don’t happen to know what that percentage is, maybe someone else here does. 10% of the total? 25%? 50%? The significance of this is that as the virus makes passage through each successive host in a chain (H2H is two generations, H2H2H is 3 generations, H2H2H2H is 4 generations), it continues to mutate and becomes more efficient and adapted to that type of host as it tries to find the best way to infect and replicate. Eventually it finds the right key to the lock, and boom, sustained and efficient human to human transmission, phase 6 pandemic.
We see people gleaning from toggle-text news reports information to identify suspect cases, dates of onset, dates of hospitalization, dates of death or release from hospital, symptoms, relationships between cases, because that is all we have to try to determine whether there are more clusters, bigger clusters, longer chains in clusters, etc. all in the effort to figure out what phase we might actually be in. We know we are missing a lot of cases, but maybe if enough of them come to our attention, we will be able to tell when we’re in phase 5 sometime before we get to phase 6, rather than after we’re already in it.
Then, some general timeframe from phase 5 to phase 6? Months? Weeks? Days?
Qustions are for anyone who would happen to know. Some of haven’t been following this for years, and don’t have the same frame of reference with which to filter news reports through. We don’t know what is cause for concern, what is “normal” in terms of disease outbreaks, for example, for a given country at a particular time of year. So if we see a news story that says something like “hundreds overrun hospitals with unidentified illness, dengue is suspect” we don’t know if that is something to worry about or not. One wonders how certain the doctors are that all cases in the hospitals presenting with flu-like symptoms, as so many of these endemic diseases do, are really dengue. Do they test only the first few, then assume the rest have dengue also? One can notice that the toggle-text reports often mention an initial diagnosis of one of these other endemic diseases, such as dengue or typhoid, before they are finally diagnosed with H5N1.
If we see several similar news stories within a general time frame for various areas of the third world, we don’t know whether that is normal or not. Is it normal to have many areas of the world experiencing all these disease outbreaks with flu-like symptoms all at the same time? One does wonder. Given the fact that the confirmed cases from the WHO and the suspect cases we pick out of the toggle-text stories are most certainly the very TIP of the iceberg, it’s quite possible we will have had H2H2H2H for some time until we can finally pinpoint it with any degree of suspicion : ) . Maybe what some are doing is taking all the bits and pieces of information together to try to get an overall picture of where we are at in the progression towards pandemic. Frankly, some of are not all that sure yet what peices we should be looking at, whether they should be weighted in some way or another, etc.
Or maybe we’re all just struggling with the same questions. Any input will be more than welcome.
Sorry - What other things could we do?
Yes: think long term too. Foster renewables - not because they are cleaner, but if and where they reduce dependency on foreign oil (most oil in the world is foreign - I’m not just talking US here).
Etc.
Yes, we’re struggling with the same questions, and then some.
Clusters might be growing in number and size over time. Yes, of course this may be an artifact in detection. We all bet.
I think we need to retake the outline summary wikipage. This will help in focusing our strength as a hive.
Ducky at 4:43: I think that the widespread ‘unidentified illnesses’ may have been undetected H5N1 for some time now. There is too much similarity in the symptoms, manner of spread, etc. between these outbreaks of Dengue, etc. and H5N1. Couple that with the absolute inability of these backwards governments to handle the KNOWN H5N1 cases (i.e. positive patients running away, refusing treatment, chinese officials mis-identifying H5N1 as SARS cases, refusal of villagers to dig up bodies for testing,etc.), and you have a situation where it is impossible, even for concerned and knowledgable public, to discern what is really happening.
I think what is truly unique about the bf that makes it so susceptible to ‘cover-ups’ (I hate to call it that as I don’t believe in some kind of global conspiracy, but I lack a better term) is that nobody wants to be the source of a great pandemic. Everyone knows the disruption that could be caused to the tourism, economy, etc. of the first nation to announce large scale H2H. There is great incentive to do a little strategic marketing of each country’s public health situation, as in when Vietnam and Thailand pronounced themselves ‘completely bird flu free’, and then within weeks, more bf was made apparent in those countries.
I guess what i am saying is that we cannot trust the data coming from these places. Not because of a large scale ‘cover-up’, but because of a million little CYA and public relations moves committed by individual entities, combined with a general public health incompetence in nations with backwards medical systems.
That is the long drawn out way of saying - I agree that efficient H2H has arrived in Asia, it is not apparent to the general public, but is increasingly made visible to those of us who closely follow this issue.
I hope that I am wrong, but I fear that is not the case.
If I had to make a prediction that could turn out to be totally false and wacko (after all, I am not a medical researcher), I would predict a finding of HPAI in the U.S. within one month (surely it is already here) and our first human case in the U.S. within 3 months.
Then the general public will prick up their ears.
GulfCoastMama-
Well said. At least some of us are starting to pick up on this. And like you, I too hope we are wrong.
Funny that you should mention the idea of triggers. I wrote the following this past weekend. I’m sure many people would change it completely. While it seems overly simple, I think it will help me in times of stress. Plus I can use this to discuss “the plan” with DH in advance, and get his objections (and eventual by-in, hopefully) clarified:
Triggers and Last Minute Actions
1. If pandemic is rumored anywhere in the world, but not confirmed - check food and water stores, on-going prep and stock rotation -inform all friends/family
2. If pandemic is confirmed, another part of the world -initiate purchase of last minute items (pre-arrangement with sellers) -move money as per prearranged plan -sell the stocks -arrange purchase of water -DH to get directions from his employer
3. If pandemic is on this continent (not immediate area) -finish all purchases -withdraw money from ATM
4. If pandemic is in my area -SIP arrangements to be enacted
P.S. We are in level one at the moment, I hope….
Jody at 10:17 4. If pandemic is in my area -SIP arrangements to be enacted
Problem with this is, Jody, you can have asymptomatic people next to you at the grocery, church, library, etc. and have no idea that “pandemic is in” your area. I think you need to rethink this.
trying to decide when the pabdemic is starting reminds me of trying to decide when I went into labor.
Originally, I had the idea that, “when labor started” I would call my husband home from work and we would go to the hospital.
After 2 false alarms, I realized that I needed more certainty it was really labor. So I would know I was in labor when the contractions were 4 minutes apart and lasted a minute each.
That situation happened on and off for a few days.
Finally the midwife said to come in when I couldn’t speak during a contraction. I arrived at the hospital and gave birth 5 minutes later — still not sure this was it.
I expect a pandemic to follow the textbook scenario just as well as a woman’s labor. Many false alarms (or really, early signs) and you won’t know for sure until you see the baby’s ears. Or maybe, long slow and protracted. (And let’s hope we do nothing to hurry it along, dear god) But if you don’t know it is coming there is no way you could prepare in time once things get serious.
I would love to see other’s “trigger points” and examples.
I personally have given up on having large specific events or items to trigger things. Instead I use a gradual turning up of my preps and efforts. With trigger points it seems that you would get sudden abrupt actions that could lead to panic. More like turning a knob instead of pushing buttons.
For my example: I first got my basic food, power, heat, garden plantings, supplies for about 2 months and now I just add about two days of preps each time the death toll ticks up by 5. I guess in a way I have a series of small “trigger points” for each 5 deaths. I am lucky in that I can work from home (if the net/phone/power stays up). So I already cut back on my “social contacts/distant”. I will cut back to just “pay at the pump”, no church, pick up my mail mode when it looks there are large numerous clusters, and to virtually none when/if it hits the US.
I hate to sound too cynical, but is there any way we can confirm that it is, indeed, Dr. Woodson who started this thread?
I agree, absolutely, DennisC at 10:36. That graded reduction in exposure to others is giving me good ideas.
I hear what you are saying, Edna. I am totally flexible ans willing to re-consider every point.
Actually, my plans are really ensure the survival of family. I am a health care worker, and my life will be forfeit.
My trigger
When there is general agreement on FW, FT and FC that IT has started.
Goju…they can’t agree on anything. Are you sure?
AVanarts – at 11:04. I’m cynical too, partly because he’s preaching to the choir. He’s warning us to get ready — most of us already are prepped.
Though this could just be a general message he’s sending out to a variety of audiences, some who may need more prodding than we do. Or maybe he’s hoping to get Tom DVM prepping. : )
Jody – at 11:15
“Goju…they can’t agree on anything. Are you sure?”
LOL - I can see Goju sitting at the computer waiting as people fall down dead outside… : )
Couldn’t resist.
I don’t have any windows in my room. But I have very good hearing and I know what bodyfalls sound like…
I really don’t think we will have a hard time figuring IT out.
His fax number is 404–298–5577
You could send him a fax and ask him.
For anyone in doubt, I did indeed start this thread. I am getting a little concerned that the focus of the Discussion Forum has become a little too broad and that this runs the risk of new and even some old visitors to the site missing the forest for the trees.
The forest is that we are witnessing an oncoming influenza pandemic and it is time to stop talking about and start getting ready for it. The cutting and dicing of the news stories and the spin placed on them by the politicians and media are all worthy of note, but to the extent that it delays your preparation activities, can be very harmful.
This is the point I am trying to make with this thread.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
Money and information flow tend to go hand to hand. I will be watching the stock market for sudden downward trends.
I am sure not counting on MSM or our government to alert us in enough time to get our SIP list finished.
I will be watching the blogs for my heads up and also relying on ‘my gut’ intuition to begin implementing my plan.
Dr. Woodson, thank you for motivating me to write down my personal plan. Right now most of it is in my head. I need to do a complete survey and checklist of the supplies I actually have and a list of what I actually need. I’ve been waiting to purchase big ticket items, perhaps hoping I wouldn’t need to spend the extra money. Now, I have come to realize that has been foolish, as I do believe we are truly running out of time to do this.
I think Dr. Woodsn’s message is a good one. Time to ramp up our prepping plans and find our way around obstacles that may prevent our doing this. Credit cards are a ‘good thing’.
“The Doctor – at 11:52 The cutting and dicing of the news stories and the spin placed on them by the politicians and media are all worthy of note, but to the extent that it delays your preparation activities, can be very harmful. “
They certainly haven’t caused any delays in my preparations. Unfortunately, at a meeting I recently attended (about a dozen people from all over the US were there) someone mentioned “that bird flu thing that didn’t happen.” I tried to point out to everyone that it is still happening and getting closer.
It’s not the people who come to fluwikie who need to be convinced to get ready, it’s everyone else “out there.”
BTW, my wife works in admin in the School of Nursing at a major medical University. Almost all that she hears about H5N1 comes from me. Very little is said about it where she works and there appears to be no preparation or planning going on.
The Doctor:
The threads are drifting because most of us are resigned to pandemic flu. But, writing thoughts down do help, so I did. As a HCW, I can vouch that we are told to look at pandemic.gov for info, but when it comes to our house there is nothing happening, unless it’s secret. (They don’t normally keep secrets well so I have to assume they expect all HCW’s to fall on the syringes, since we don’t have swords). I would help me if there were threat asessments etc but I don’t expect to see them other than what’s here. Meantime, I work, I study, and I hope I’m wrong. Would you please state for the record how long you believe we should be prepped for? There is a huge difference between three months and two years. Thanks for the warning BYW…The more guesstimates I hear, the more I re-evaluate.
The points That’s Just Ducky! made about Phase 5 and how will be know it has arrived are very important. What TJD said about H2H is correct. It is clear we have been in Phase 4 at least since July 2005 when the first Indonesian cases began to be reported. We will know that we are in Phase 5 when the clusters and cases become much larger. Like H2H x 100 or so, but they don’t keep spreading because efficient transmission remains impaired. There will be a corresponding genetic change, probably in the hemagglutinin gene that permits H5N1 to partially attach to the mammalian upper respiratory receptor. When the first cases were reported last winter in Turkey, you might recall that the index cases had bleeding from the gums and mouth. That H5N1 strain had the ability to infect the mouth and was transmitted H2H to about 30 people or more in one large extended family but died out. This is what we can expect to see repeated over and over on an even larger scale when Phase 5 arrives.
I agree there is gross manipulation of the information we are getting from the WHO and the national public health authorities about the pandemic. See “Hanky Panky in China” on the www.birdflumanual.com website for a discussion of one aspect of this. The past performance of these folks is a good guide to their future actions; so don’t expect them to change. As long as we know this, we won’t be fooled into buying what they are selling or at least interpreting it through a skeptical filter.
In my opinion, your best defense against propaganda is knowledge. One of my goals is to try and share what I know about this disease in a way that can be understood by those without PhDs in virology. Armed with some pretty basic knowledge, you are empowered to interpret the raw information reported by the media for yourself. This way, you can follow the events on the ground for yourself without recourse to the public health spin-doctors and political propagandists.
Sites like Fluwiki are really essential as well. Yes, some of the visitors and forum posters could be agent provocateurs, others could be sent to misguide or discredit facts that the politicians are not interested in seeing made public. I really have no idea. But what I can be sure of is that 99% of the posts are legitimate and this community has pretty effect BS filters that are up and armed. So, given the size, strength, and good will of this community to support itself and its members prepare for and survive the next pandemic, I have no fear that this site will be easily manipulated. This is real democracy and probably the only one we have these days.
There will be no way to spin or news-manage an influenza pandemic once it goes Phase 6. It will not be possible to keep the lid on this thing once it gets going. Nor will it be possible to prevent us from learning about H5N1 going to phase 5. Too many people will know and leak the information. Even with the severe crackdown in China over flu related information, the truth seeps out drop by drop until a coherent picture can be seen. So, don’t worry about it. Instead, learn all you can about the virus and how it behaves. Watch the events on the ground in Asia and Africa carefully. Make your own assessment. Check your assessment with what is being said here on the Fluwiki form by members you have come to trust and who’s judgment you respect. This way, you will be able to tell what’s what and get ahead of the curve.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
If you read the threads in this Discussion Forum, there are very few who say that they are finished prepping. For example, Jody at 10:17. I think The Doctor is saying that by now items 1 through 3 should already have been done. By all of us.
I think The Doctor is trying to instill a sense of urgency. I see now that he is right. I think that he is saying that the lack of a sense of urgency may have resulted in people thinking that they may have more time to get ready than they actually have. I think he is right about that too. His posts have lit a fire under me. Let them light a fire under us all.
Thank you Dr. Woodson.
I’ve been getting the sense that time was short and the need to be ready is great. This just confirms that sense.
Thank you.
I agree totally with the good doctor - the time to prepare is now.
Prep your home, then your neighbors, then your community, and expand outward from there until all of our circles of preparation overlap
That is how we will all come through what is coming intact.
Later on today, I will post my suggestions for preparation triggers appropriate for Phase 4, the one we are in now. A complete list of triggers has been published in The Bird Flu Manual, available on Amazon.com. Here is the link:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/explorer/1419641522/2/ref=pd_lpo_ase/104-1204275-3442355?
These cover Phase 4 through all three pandemic waves. There are also a few post-pandemic suggestions.
More later,
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
PS: Please forgive the crass self-promotion of this book. I benefit from its sales. Just so you know! :> GW
Thanks Doctor. I just bought the book!
The Doctor
Seeing you have given out your first book for free on Fluwiki and sold it online for 4 or $5, have put the home care booklet on line at no cost, think we can forgive you for making a little profit out of all your time and effort! Your at the top of my list of good people. Thank you for all you have done. Tired of procrastinating on the last 5% of preps. Going to do it all now in the next few days. First up is a copy of your latest.
Doctor,
Honestly, would you suggest that people try to obtain tamiflu or relenza for their flu kits? Do you think that these will help at all or that the virus will already have lost its sensitivity to both of these by the time it goes pandemic?
I have tried, frustratingly in vain, to obtain either through legitimate means of getting a script from (now up to 8) different doctors. Nobody will write them around here. The biggest excuse used to not give the script is theri fear that “I may use it wrong for something not flu”. The second excuse is that the bird flu is nothing to worry about, but if I get the flu, then they’ll be willing to write a script. The third is “what is bird/pandemic flu? -that isn’t a real threat!”
I am afraid to order any meds over the internet since there are so many stories of fake versions on the internet market now. Plus the prices have been so overblown.
Dr. Woodson, it appears that the Chinese doctors have been using cordyceps (mushroom) along with traditional anti-virals in treating H5N1 victims. I have also seen references to studies done regarding cordyceps’ use on H1N1 victims back in 1918. It apparently has a very good track record of clearing mucus from flu victims’ windpipes, along with being a useful antiviral and blood vessel dialater. I’ve also been studying shiitake (anti-viral), reishi (anti-inflammatory), and chaga (Siberian influenza remedy). Have you uncovered any recent medical studies on the use of medicinal mushrooms in treating pandemic flu?
Can you take Amantedine, Relenza and Tamiflu and antibiotics at the same time?
There’s this effort to translate the for-free booklet (17 pages) into many languages. Grab your list of contacts and tell them to have a look - a few gifted (with languages) and generous (with time) people will make a huge difference.
Full disclosure: the cash I keep won’t change a bit while we get this done. Our feelings will evolve with better and better karma. :-)
TreasureIslandGal — Many who have posted on this thread have gotten medications on line, including myself. Tamiflu, phenergen, antibiotics are all available from what seem to be reliable online sources. These can be found in older threads using the search words above. Do not want to list them myself as do not want to alert TPTB who have been cracking down on Grannie getting blood pressure pills and statins from Canada, and might want to get more things myself. Some of these sources have very reasonable prices, inline with U.S. sources, minus of course that your health insurer will not pay for any of it.. Good luck.
I think a lot of us preppers are secret preppers. In our runs to Costco and the grocery stores, we may hold back on the amount we buy, partly because we don’t want to draw attention to ourselves and be on the receiving end of stares and smirking from people who aren’t aware of the danger because of the messages they get from our government and the media. In addition, we are afraid that if our our neighbors who aren’t aware of the danger and aren’t prepping because they don’t think there is a real danger, know that we are prepping, they will converge on our houses when they can’t find food and water in the stores, and the government is missing in action, ala New Orleans in the wake of Katrina. I think that these are real and understandable fears.
One thing we could do is to not hide from other shoppers that we are prepping. When they stare and roll their eyes to each other, just hand them a little piece of paper with this printed on it, or words to this effect:
Yes, I am preparing for an imminent influenza pandemic. The world has a severe pandemic happens about once every century or so. The last severe one was in the US in 1918–1919, when it is estimated that about 100 million people in the world died. The scientists and public health officials are warning that another pandemic is around the corner, that it will probably be the bird flu, and are pleading for us to get ready, despite the fact that we don’t see that news on the TV. When the public finally finds out that the pandemic has started, via the coverage on CNN 24/7, the stores in the shelves will be stripped bare in a few hours. Imagine Katrina in every city. We will see total chaos, martial law, no food, water or proper shelter, no room in the hospitals.
The government isn’t prepared either, and they have already said that the state, county and city governments are going to be on their own. That means us. We’re going to be on our own. Clearly, the public is not going to get the message from the government or the mass media that there is a real danger and need to get ourselves prepared. Even when the pandemic starts and is spreading and killing people, the government and mass media will still be trying to lull the public into a false sense of security. Just read John Barry’s “The Great Influenza” and other accounts of the Spanish Flu. This is exactly what happened. The government decided not to tell the public about the danger, and continued to say the situation was under control, even as the pandemic spread faster and farther and took more and more lives every day. In the hardest hit areas, fully half of the houses had someone who died in it. Don’t take my word for it. Read about it for yourself.
I recommend that you also read about the bird flu on on the internet, and get yourself prepared. Here is a site that is a good resource to start finding out about the facts about the bird flu and how we should be prepared: http://www.fluwikie2.com. It is an internet forum that is a good source of information that people from all over the world are benefiting from it. Are you really willing to gamble with your kids’ lives? Do you want to have to look at your sick, dying, starving, terrified children and think, “I knew this could happen, but I chose to do nothing about it.” Think for yourself. Inform yourself. Act now.
If enough of us do that, a grass roots sense of urgency may be instilled, little by little, in the general public, enough to overcome the inertia that has resulted from the lulling of the public by the government’s lack of action and pap that they feed us though the media into a sense of false security. I believe that the powers that be in the government know the extent of the risk, but choose not to inform the public. Why? The bottom line is money and power, as always.
There is a point of critical mass of awareness that may be achieved, and maybe it will happen in time to avoid catastrophe for many people. Many could be saved from being among the victims of the “collateral damage”, the people that will die for reasons other than the direct infection from the disease.
This point of critical mass of awareness may spill over into the media, they may become aware of the grass roots increase of sense of urgency, and pick up on it and report on it. Then, more people may hear and believe the message, including our immediate neighbors, and more people may prepare. There may be a hue and cry from the public for the government to make sure that the poor and not left to die on their own, as happened in New Orleans from Katrina.
This is just one idea of something that we could do, in addition to preparing, ourselves. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. You could say the chain of our continued civilization is looking pretty weak right now.
“Stop Cutting Bait and Start Fishing” Who’s need bait? Living on the coast, we have an unlimited food supply in the Atlantic Ocean. Being an avid seafood lover, I will be in heaven when the fishing population is decreased…no competiton :) I’ve already begun to stockpile my lure collection along with extra line, fishing poles, reels, etc. Fresh water will be provided by my neighbors swimming pools. Think about it…the average pool has around 12,000 gallons of water or more(I have purchased several top of the line water purifiers to elimate the H5N1 virus)and gas for my generator will be provided by my neighbors’ boats with ample of fuel.
I would add to my above post that bird flu is killing over half the people who get it, and 75 percent of the children who get it.
Tristar – at 13:56 ….provided by my neighbors swimming pools….my neighbors’ boats ..
That is what I fear most- the lack of civilization. It is the one thing I have problems preping for.
I emailed over to Dr. Grattan Woodson to ask him to verify that these threads were indeed begun by him. He replied that they were, and said thanks for checking.
Thank you for participating here, Dr. Woodson. Your advice on practical nursing for pandemic flu stands alone at this time, and is a tremendous contribution.
I would also add to my post at 13:48 that the information on www.fluwiki2.com is free.
It is Doc Woodson. He is a good man.
TJD at 15:07: Keep in mind that in an emergency situation, you may not have access to the web, let alone the information provided on this website. I bought Dr. Woodson’s book because I want to be sure I have quick access to emergency medical care, but that’s just me. I know people have tried to make back-up copies of the threads here but that has been discouraged for practical reasons. I have down-loaded Dr. Woodson’s internet book version and I guess I could have printed out the pages, but the price of the hard copy is very reasonable, and I’d like to acknowledge Dr. Woodson’s help by throwing a bit of monetary gratuity his way. That’s just me, though.
Dr. Woodson, In support of your work and in appreciation of your posts here I just ordered your book. Thank you for not being condesceding toward us non-medical types and thank you for lighting a fire under us today. I plan to get started on the book as soon as it arrives, with a highligter in hand!
Hi De Jure at 15:31, yes, I absolutely agree with all you say.
Doctor:
re”My thinking is that as the virus approaches pandemic status, it will spend less time in each phase”
That was my thinking as well; it makes me think my suspicions are OK. It makes me edgey that TPTB ie government local level up-are ‘dilly-dallying’ with this precious time.
My guess-timate-this winter or winter 2007–8. The later the better,esepcially if cell-based vaccine production gets up and running. Then and only then will I feel less anxious.
Many thanks for your honesty and level-headedness prep guides.
What is your hospital doing to prepare?
Doc - just ordered your book as a “thanks” for your selfless help.
I know a nurse in Greenwich Hospital ER - no word about Pandemic prep there yet!
Goju at 16:35 My pediatrician is in Greenwich. During a discussion on BF last spring I was told the doctors with young children will probably not work. The office will close for routine visits and the remaining doctors will be based at the hospital. She also mentioned the pharmacys are planning to deliver medicines rather than have people go to pick up their prescriptions.
I have a good friend who is a nurse at The Tully Center (part of Stamford Hospital.) They have not been told anything officially however Dr. Parry is doing his best to inform the community. I attended 3 of his seminars on BF this summer.
CCJach at 17:03 In my state, while there has been training sessions at the state level involving hospitals, there has been NO sessions involving clinics or clinical staff. Within the past 2–3 weeks, I was at a planning meeting and asked several large hospital administrators and pandemic planners if they had been talking with their local clinicians about plans to care for patients should a pandemic occur. They had not done so - they just assumed that they would show up. They started to get a slightly pale look to their faces realizing they may not have MD’s showing up…
I also asked them if they had designated space (also food, water, PPE, soap for bathing, clothes, etc) for staff members who may not be able to return home due to transportation issues, quarantines, or just that they are afraid to bring the virus home to their families. They all said “no”. All of them said that they would not have enough space for patients, so how would staff expect space to sleep/stay? My response to them is why should they show up to work without these things in place? They looked at me with their mouths hanging open for quite a long time.
Funeral home directors have also been excluded in all levels of the planning process in our state. My local funeral home director is either the current president or past president of their state association and said point blank that no one has approached any of them. He thought avian flu was another type of seasonal flu and knew absolutely nothing. He said if the hospital or others were planning to “dump all of the bodies” at funeral homes, they had better think again. Most funeral homes only have the capacity to store 4–6 bodies onsite at one time and many would not have the staff to process large numbers of dead. When I mentioned that the plan for the hospitals was to stack bodies in refrigerated trucks, he said that the trucks could not be taken care of only by funeral home directors and they are not in any of the planning loops at all. The casket salesman that was also in the room looked very ill when we were discussing how many people could become ill and the case fatality rates.
NauticalMan – at 13:41
With or without a Rx? Have made several efforts to procure Rx’s, to no avail.
In my judgement, if this happens in a severe or worse form this winter, we’re screwed. Totally screwed. of those that the flu does not kill, 90 % of the rest will die when the infrastructure collapses…..
LMWatBullRun - at 18:07: An infectious disease epidemiologist I know very well in our state said last week that “if we have a pandemic with a CFR over 5%, we are screwed”. I believe him.
LMWatBullRun
Yep. There are just way too many people out there who are clueless. It would take literally years to get all levels of government, health care, business, etc. prepared, not to mention the citizenry. And considering most don’t even want to hear about it, much less prepare for it…well, it seems so futile at times. But still I prep. My DH thinks that no matter how much we prep, if it turns out to be “worst-case” bad, nothing we have done/could have done will save us in the end. He’s probably right.
My DH thinks that no matter how much we prep, if it turns out to be “worst-case” bad, nothing we have done/could have done will save us in the end. He’s probably right.
I definitely do NOT agree.
We (as a species) survived past catastrophic pandemics. Even Exodus.
Some will survive again if the next pandemic is catastrophic.
I’ll work to be one of them. If not, I died trying.
“He thought avian flu was another type of seasonal flu and knew absolutely nothing.”
This is exactly the response that I got from first responders when I gave a presentation a few weeks ago - medics, flight medic, ICU nurses. “We haven’t heard anything about this at all.”
District health dept offical says “I find that hard to believe since it’s been in the newspaper and on TV.”
The emergency response organization has nothing prepared. No masks, gloves, goggles, gowns, disinfectant, etc.
Bird Guano – at 18:32 yes, me too.
the books, the machines, and the will to do good and make the world better for our children will remain - at least in a few.
Bird Guano - at 18:32 “We (as a species) survived past catastrophic pandemics. Even Exodus.”
None of those who left Egypt made it to the promised land. But their children did. That’s reason enough to try, reason enough to make the all-out effort.
Pixie – at 19:08 None of those who left Egypt made it to the promised land
just to keep the record straight- two spies made it- Joshua and Caleb (spies are special people-just since I have know lots of spies over the years- really- of course I am not now nor have ever been a clandestine agent)
Sniffles – at 17:51, I’d buy you a root beer, or what you’re drinkin’. Going to copy what you said about funeral directors over to the Mass Fatality Plans thread, (what state if you don’t mind saying?)
Bird Guano at 18:32
“If not, I died trying.”
That’s my plan :)
Dr. Woodson, I just ordered your book (and Will Stewart’s).
In my estimation, everyone here at Flu Wikie is actively prepping at some level and is searching for answers on how to prep more thoroughly, physically or otherwise. I would also have to guess that those of us who recognize the threat of the impending pandemic are also doing our best to enlighten others.
My effort in this regard has been to put my new-found knowledge into text and distribute it to my friends, relatives, and neighbors. I’m sorry to say, however, that most people are not even “cutting bait”, let alone “fishing”. I would be very much surprised if more than 1% of the population could SIP for more than two weeks. It saddens me deeply to imagine what will happen to them when they are driven from their homes by their need for something they do not have. That will be their undoing.
Thank you Dr. Woodson, Will Stewart, and all the contributors here at Flu Wikie. You have all helped to increase the chances of survival for my family.
As promised, here are my suggestions for pandemic triggers appropriate to WHO Pandemic Phase 4, our current de facto phase. Below is an excerpt from The Bird Flu Manual, published September 6, 2006.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
Pandemic Survival Plan triggers Triggers are milestones in the evolution of the pandemic influenza virus that cause you to take certain predetermined actions. Triggers are an important way to help one objectively, logically, and comprehensively initiate certain steps in a PSP at an appropriate time. In times of great stress and risk, you want to be prepared rather than flying by the seat of your pants. Preparing for a severe influenza pandemic is time-consuming and expensive. And you want to avoid implementing your plan if it is unnecessary. The trigger schema presented here is an example of a template for your own tailored plan that will reflect the unique character and priorities suited to your situation.
As discussed earlier, the H5N1 bird flu has acquired all the genetic characteristics it needs to establish pandemic status except one. When and if it will take this last evolutionary step is unknown. However, the factors I’ve elucidated point to a high likelihood of this occurrence. As time passes, the risk increases that the pandemic will unfold. Careful planning is the hallmark of sound preparation, and a good plan will include a list of items to have on hand. It also will cover how to make the best use of time and available resources as well as establish a logical point at which these items should be obtained. The plan should pinpoint the appropriate time to take certain actions based on the state of the pandemic. If people wait too long to create or implement their plans, the items they need may no longer be available or cost too much. On the other hand, people also should refrain from jumping prematurely and buying supplies that they will not need.
Having a pre-determined PSP trigger for each important action specified in the plan provides discipline. If “X” happens, it is time to implement “Y”. Following this approach will reduce the tendency for people to be uncertain of when to act. No discussion or decision will be needed when the triggers are clearly defined.
As the virus progresses along its evolutionary path, more and more people will begin to perceive the risk and start their preparations. If you wait too long to prepare, you could get caught without the essential supplies your family needs to survive the pandemic. Using triggers that are tied to the actual behavior of the virus to help guide the execution of your plan is a sensible solution to this problem.
In this manual, I refer often to the WHO Influenza Pandemic Phase system as a key barometer of bird flu activity. As described earlier, the WHO has been slow to advance their alert phase. Despite this shortcoming, this alert system remains the best model to follow for gauging the virus’s developmental progress.
What is needed is a way to determine the de facto or actual WHO Phase we are in now rather than waiting for an official announcement, which may be slow in coming. The triggers we follow therefore must be governed by events on the ground, specifically the behavior of the virus rather than the declarations of the WHO. Part I of this manual gives you the tools and knowledge needed to help you determine the virus’ progress. Armed with this information, you can make an independent assessment of the progress the virus is making on its pandemic path. A review of information presented in media reports will help you extrapolate meaning and impact. You will be able to interpret the facts yourself rather than relying only on optimistic interpretations and announcements from the news services and government agencies. I will monitor the events leading to the pandemic and maintain a “de facto” WHO Pandemic Alert Phase on the BFM website based on these principals. Since, in my opinion for the reasons detailed in Part I of this manual, we have been in de facto WHO Pandemic Alert Phase 4 since the summer of 2005, your preparation status and plan should be implemented given that degree of risk. Recommended Pandemic Survival Plan triggers Trigger: WHO Phase 4 · Locate your pandemic refuge
· Identify the “natural” members of your Pandemic Survivor’s Group.
· Make contact with key potential members of your Group and begin a serious dialog about the pandemic.
· Begin bird flu education of all potential members of your Group.
· Complete a thorough written Pandemic Survival Plan.
· Define your Spartan Energy Budget. Determine how you will meet your alternative energy needs and what items you require to do so
· Specify and identify suppliers for the items in your family’s Spartan Energy Plan
· Begin purchase of all devices for your family’s Spartan Energy Plan
· Determine what foods to stockpile
· Begin your food stockpile.
· Evaluate potential water sources. Devise a plan for collecting, purifying, and filtering water for home consumption.
· Purchase and install all the items necessary for your alternative water supply plan, but do not fill them with water yet.
· Begin saving cash. Try and put away enough free cash to support your family’s needs for 3 months. Find the best way to purchase 1/10th oz American Eagle gold and 1 oz American Eagle silver coins. Convert some cash into these coins for use later.
· Purchase all the items listed in the manual for the Flu Treatment Kit. Discuss getting a 3-month supply of essential medications with your doctor. Ask her to look over and consider prescribing the medications listed in the FTK for you to have on hand in the event a pandemic occurs.
· Monitor the behavior of the bird flu virus and look for signs of localized human-to-human spread that signifies Phase 5 has begun. I will be announcing my view of what pandemic stage we are in on the BFM.com website.
· Consider constructing a solarium for passive home heating.
· If you plan on storing vegetables in a root cellar, dig one now while you can still rent a backhoe and buy lumber at the hardware store.
· Review your plan and look for weaknesses. If possible, try to locate supplies you overlooked or augment supplies or items you need.
Hey… what happened to Dr. W’s post about “triggers”? It was just here… thank goodness I ran off that part. dang… the rest was good too!
Aurora at 18:37
That’s a testament to how much people tune out the MSM when they can’t see the direct connection to their own lives. Just another exotic disease in a faraway place.
I can hope that there will be an upswing in MSM coverage in the Spring when the wild bird migrations may carry the virus to N. America, then perhaps some more members of the public will wake up.
hmmm… now, it’s back. That was odd.
Question regarding: “I will be announcing my view of what pandemic stage we are in on the BFM.com website.”
BFM.com and bfm.com are an investment company website. What does this mean?
I can’t find a single-solitary person in my family that Wants to survive a pandemic. I must have been adopted. I will really need to meet up with you guys when this is over.
anonymous – at 20:27 was me. Just cleaned my cookies
Dr. Woodson your message is appreciated. My prepping will advance to a higher level as a result. Thank you.
anonymous – at 20:27 I can’t find a single-solitary person in my family that Wants to survive a pandemic.
ROFLMAO!!
What you can’t find is anyone in your family who thinks this is a genuine risk.
I know-we must be related.
Why wait for WHO stages? Perhaps it’s just me and my limited coping skills, but my PPF dropped when I accepted that:
1. a pandemic will occur, and will occur in my life-time probably within the next 5 years.
2. There is a very high risk that the next pandemic will be caused by H5N1, and I anticpate that its’ case attack rate, and case fatality rate will be higher than 1918.
3. Prepare everything now-it’s nothing I can’t and won’t use on a routine basis. I just have to rotate stock. Why wait until many more people finally ‘get it’ and shopping will be more difficult.
AND..’IT’ could be here-literally-within a few weeks from now, while we are in stage 3. I agree that stages 4–5−6 could be only weeks to days apart-and how could I get all that preparing done in such a short amount of time?
So now I work to educate people in my township. Knowing I’m as ready as I can get is a HUGE mental relief.
Grace-Will you be my sister : )
BFM.com is the abbreviation for www.BirdFluManual.com.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
Hey Doc, just bought your book. Thanks for your participation, advice and working so hard to inform people.
Dang y’all, it’s threads like this that keep me awake at night!! I sometimes find there is a thin line between embracing life and appreciating what we have, and being consumed with the fear of losing it.
I do thank you all for your contribution though!
KimT – at 21:00 Grace-Will you be my sister : )
Sure…. :)
(be warned tho-my sisters tell me I am bossy as all get-out!)
Well this thread reads like a horror movie. Too bad I read it just before bedtime. Nightmares for sure tonight. Tomorrow it’s off to walmart for more stuff. Dr. Woodson thank you for all the info, not what I wanted to hear, but, I know it’s coming. I just wish more people would listen.
NoFluingAround @17:59
That’s WITHOUT a prescription. Got nowhere in two visits to my longtime GP. When I told him recently I had gone ahead and purchased Tamiflu online he thought that was a prudent thing to do! My thoughts at the time are not printable. Good luck. You might try using my name in a fluwikie search..
crfullmoon – at 19:41, I am from Wisconsin. I don’t go for rootbeer too much, but a double hot fudge sundae sounds really good!
I saw my specialist last week and brought up PF, and other then mere basics she hadn’t heard much about it but I told her about my neighbor bbeing an administrator at one of the other hospitals attempting to make plans so hopefully I put a bug in her ear.
Grace RN – at 21:21 KimT – at 21:00 Grace-Will you be my sister : )
Sure…. :)
(be warned tho-my sisters tell me I am bossy as all get-out!)
Good we can kick each others butt via the wiki if we start slacking ;0
Thank you, Dr. Woodson, for your continued efforts and generous contributions. I ordered your book over the weekend and look forward to recieving it. And, thank you to all you fellow wiki-ans for your contributions, information and humor. This long-time-lurker-infrequent poster-diligent-prepper is also making another trip to wal-mart and to our local bass pro shop tomorrow.
anonymous at 20:27 >>I can’t find a single-solitary person in my family that Wants to survive a pandemic. I must have been adopted. I will really need to meet up with you guys when this is over.>>
that IS funny! i mean, wait, no it’s not no it’s not.
you’re certainly not alone tho!
what finally worked for me w/well, admittedly only one of mine, was mentioning….
the grandchildren.
so if you’re holdin that card, play it.
NauticalMan – at 23:01
No luck my friend, searched FluWiki for what seemed like all night, however, thank you for your efforts.
What is this booklet and flu kit everyone is talking about? BTW…I ordered the book as well:o)
to send a link
sabby34@aol.com
Dr. Woodson - I do not know if you are familiar with the Flu Clinic portion of curevents - we would certainly welcome your input there.
Thanks very much for the information - it only confirms my own feelings about where we are, and what we should be doing (or should have done).
I’m one of those people who believe we will only know in retrospect exactly when the pandemic began, and because of that my trigger to SIP will come much sooner than H5N1 appearing in my local area. One case in this country may well trip my trigger.
I might suggest that many people might benefit from living with a hair trigger on this issue.
For those of you interested in what Dr. Gratton Woodson has to say…he also started the Batman in Gotham City link this morning. Just passing that info along since the Thread title is a little strange, and some might skip it because of that.
Snowhound1 – at 11:47
could you please post the link, thanks.
BIrdie, the booklet can be found on a Fluwiki link. It’s 32 (or 17 -?) pages, and contains a list of supplies (the kit, I think) to buy for home nursing someone through the flu. (prescription and OTC meds.)
http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PandemicPreparednessGuides
Dang, Sniffles; double hot fudge sundae! Now you’ve done it; I am going to miss ice cream, but, guess I haven’t bought enough jars of fudge sauce (nor, Nutella!) Someone is going to have to hide them from me (though I’m getting so absent-minded I may forget I have them somewhere).
NauticalMan – at 23:01, guess your GP was lucky you didn’t keel over from apoplexy right there!
Thank you Dr.Woodson, for all you’ve done and are doing.
anonymous… http://tinyurl.com/yznoyt
crfullmoon – at 11:59 I bought a handcrank ice cream maker that does not need salt at a garage sale for a quarter. Throughout the summer, I bought ice cream mixes (most on sale) and evaporated milk. One thing we have here in the north is plenty of cold weather in the winter, so the ice cream will stay frozen without any trouble! :)
Posie – at 00:58 Don’t feel bad; my family is preparing but my husband’s is not. We are preparing with the understanding that we will have many of my husband’s immediate family showing up on our doorstep and we will be taking care of them. They just do not see this as very important because either 1) it is happening over there or 2) if it was that bad, it would be on the news a lot and it is not. We will not let them starve or freeze to death if this should come to pass, but they have had plenty of opportunity and information and they have actively ignored it.
At this point ante-pandemic, we have a lot of good choices with regard to what food we want to stockpile and how much we want to pay for it. I was pleased to hear that many of you are heading out to Wal-Mart for prep supplies. I bought most of my food at Sam’s Club and Publix. This is one way to do it and my suggestions on this can be found on in the article below. This is a long article and has several pages that I can’t upload into the forum. You can download it from the www.bridflumanual.com website. The direct link is below the article.
The other major way to stockpile food is the one advocated by Will Stewart in his new book. Will advocates bulk purchase of raw grains and storing them in HDPE containers using oxygen absorbers. This is the best way to store food for the long term or if you need to store food for more that 3 months. Here is the link to Will’s book that provides you all the information on this:
www.pandemic-plans.com/Files/Page1.html
Below is an excerpt from an original article written on food stockpiling for the pandemic. There is information on nutrition and how to buy healthy foods from the Big Box stores.
I hope you find this information helpful,
Best regards,
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
Food Stockpiling Tips By Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
Basic food supplies
Stock your pandemic pantry with foods that do not require refrigeration, are highly nutritious, taste good, can be prepared under campout conditions, and that are reasonably priced. These characteristics are ideal for use during the adverse conditions possible during a severe pandemic. I suggest you obtain a 3-month supply of these basic foodstuffs for each member of your family
Why stockpile 3-months of food for each family member?
This quantity of food should be enough to see you through times when food is scarce. Since the pandemic is expected to last about 18-months, having a 3 month stockpile implies that you will still need to have access to food sources during this time, a prospect that is very likely. What is also likely though is that food shortages will occur from time to time during the pandemic period. During these time points, it will be difficult to find certain types of food. Your stockpile is intended for use during these times of scarcity. When supplies become more plentiful, restore your depleted stockpile. This way, you will be able to keep your family fed during the pandemic and not spend countless hours waiting in line for a handful of rice and beans.
Good buys available at warehouse grocery stores
You can find reasonable choice and great prices for many of the foods recommended for your pandemic stockpile at the warehouse grocery stores, such as Sam’s Club, Target, Wal-Mart and Costco. These “big box” stores have items for sale in bulk and at prices lower that retail grocery stores. They include canned meat and fish, dried beans, rice, dried fruits, canola oil, nuts, and many other items suitable for stockpiling.
This article is continued at www.birdflumanual.com/articles/foodStockpilingTips.asp
I ordered The Bird Flu Manual last night. I already have The Bird Flu Preparedness Planner by Dr. W, and Where there’s no doctor. And Will Stewart’s book… How to Prepare for a Pandemic (which is probably the best resourced book I’ve read…except for Barry’s book.)
I hate to be stupid… but… I don’t understand the title of this thread. Could somebody give me a brief clue. Thanks.
I think it’s the equivalent of “stop talking and start doing”.
Clawdia, thanks. I am still confused. When I am “planning” a fishing trip I do certain things. When I am actually “there”, I start cutting bait. At some point, it is just “enough” bait and time to fish. Maybe he is talking about people who are talking about the approaching pandemic and not really preparing for it. Maybe he means we who have been prepping need to stop cutting bait and get out there and fish… get others on the bandwagon. Maybe he means it is “time” to hunker down. I dunno… maybe it’s a regional saying I don’t get… like “crazy as a betsy bug.”
Extremely interesting thread. One thing to keep in mind is to be mentally prepared as well. Expect the unexpected. Realize that help may not be coming for a long time and you may be solely reliant on your local community for help and protection.
Working with the Law Enforcement and especially in the field of Medical Research, there well be some difficult issues when “the lawless” begin to raid the preppers supplies and people may undergo radical behavorial changes in behavior as they go into “family protect” mode or “who is going to prevent from…”.
We of course hope to preserve and maintain the infrastructure - yet with power black outs, SIP policies, and even national guard and what may seem harsh methods of triage (utilize supplies to save the most lives - therefore - the sickest could quickly exhaust medical supplies - what then? There is of course the SOP of triage - civilian versus military.
One can prep in supplies, but it will be difficult to anticipate the severity of a Pandemic, and depending on that severity, careful plans may not prove feasible in extremely low resource situations. Very interesting web sit.
(Sniffles; I won’t want to eat ice cream in the Winter; I’m too cold! If I ever get more of the community clued in and prepping, I might think I’d have leisure to make ice cream, in Summer, maybe.)
(EnoughAlready; now I had to Google “betsy-bug”! “crazy as a betsy bug: a variation of “crazy as a bed bug,” an insect of a family (Cimicidae) of wingless, bloodsucking hemipteran insects, especially the species (Cimex lectularius) with a broad, flat reddish-brown body and an unpleasant odor that infests beds, furniture, walls, and so on, is active mainly at night, and may transmit a variety of diseases.”)
(Diseases - there’s our topic again - Go prep!)
Hi, Medclinician! Have you found your nation or state preppers’ thread yet?
1. I believe that the good Doctor has the best of intentions. I believe he cares about mankind. 2. I believe the doctor is extremely intelligent and has a better grasp on H5N1 than me. 3. I have personally downloaded Dr. Woodson’s guide and am extremely thankful for it.
As you can tell, I respect Dr. Woodson and believe he has our best interests in mind. But a friend and I were talking and we were discussing this particular thread. I was expressing my concern over the tone of this thread and the increase in my level of panic!
My friend suggested that Dr. Woodson does have a book to sell and perhaps he is pushing the alarm button to sell more copies of his book?
He came to this conclusion, looking for some hope I think, that things aren’t this bleak.
Does anybody else feel this way?
Things are that bleak. Maybe worse.
Look at India/Nepal/Pakastan/Indonesia/Indonesia/Indonesia
Patch,
I think if Doctor Woodson wanted to simply make more money off of pandemic anxiety, he would (1) be asking more money for his book, (2) wouldn’t have put it up on the website for free downloading, and (3) would have had a better marketing strategy for profiting from the inception of this growing problem. As you may recall, he was in the vanguard of panflu awareness long ago. He has single-handedly been responsible for motivating hundreds if not thousands of people to prep for this issue, explaining it in simple layman’s terms. I don’t blame your friend for his viewpoint if he hasn’t been following Dr. Woodson from the beginning, but you may wish to point out to him Dr. Woodson’s selfless efforts in all of this practically from the beginning.
EnoughAlready – at 14:11 I don’t understand the title of this thread. Could somebody give me a brief clue.
Goju, I don’t understand. Look at what??
I’ve been watching Indonesia for a long time. I don’t think any expert is ready to proclaim H5N1 in it’s presnt state as *THE* next pandemic virus.
DeJure - That was something neither of us knew…I knew he had free books to download. But we weren’t sure if he was selling any? That would obviously make a difference.
Patch - at 20:17
Your friend is looking for a reason not to have to believe a fearful thing. That’s a natural sort of reaction.
Dr. Woodson is hardly alone in sounding the alarm, and his long-free PDF and book are his best effort at trying to save as many lives as possible. Hasn’t each of us here tried to find something of value to contribute for the good of the Flu Wiki community and a world we hold dear?
He offers wisdom, advice… for free and for a fee. My ppf hasn’t raised because he is here. Nothing is different today then it was three days ago for me. I have been meaning to buy his book but I am so busy as a single parent working fulltime plus all the energy it takes to prep and organize. It was a reminder made easy because of the link and because I love books and absorb everything I read, I bought several others while I was at it.
He has knowledge, he went to the trouble to write and publish—thats a lot of work..try it, it isn’t easy to write.
My prepping is almost done. I have worked hard and sacraficed to get here. I’m guessing that I wont find too much new info that will surprise me, but it will be nice to have it all in one place instead of searching out different sources.
Plus he has dropped in with comments before. Kinda cool!
Thanks Uncle Woody ; ) (just kidding)
I’m grateful for a book - it’s there as long as there’s light to read by, and it’s a lot more convenient than printing out a long PDF (ink, paper) and buying a notebook to put it in.
Remove the patches from your eyes and look at what is happening.
Goju – at 21:02
How about stopping the condescending ad hominem attacks?
Thanks Long Beach. I often feel like I’m a guy wearing a tu-tu at a biker convention!
It’s no secret I’m less sure of this thing than some. But I am worried. Too worried maybe. I sometimes feel the ones that are convinced aren’t REALLY convinced, otherwise they’d be more like the cyclopse. You know?
I thought my friend made a valid point and I wasn’t sure. I didn’t know how to ask without being disrepectful. I must not have been able to.
Thanks though.
Some of you have asked why I started this thread and what does it mean? The answer is simple. This winter we could see the start of the pandemic. While is true that the timing of the pandemic’s beginning is not something anyone can predict, we do know is that the flu likes the cold weather and is much more active then than in the summer. It is also true that we cannot say with certainty that H5N1 will achieve pandemic status but we do know that this strain and its variants have spread itself around quite a bit over the last decade. I happen to think that H5N1 will become pandemic, possibly as soon as this coming winter.
Make no mistake about it; the odds are very high that you and your family will survive this event. I have developed a number of different mathematical models looking at mild, moderate and severe influenza scenarios. In the absolutely worst one I can imagine, the chances of survival are 95% for the population as a whole in the US and the EU. While I do expect a severe pandemic, in my opinion, the most likely clinical attack rate is 40% with a case fatality rate of 8%. This equates to a death rate of 3.2% of the population as a whole or a 96.8% likelihood of survival the average person.
For more information about this topic, here is a link to an original article on the www.birdflumanual.com website entitled Illness and Death During the Pandemic:
http://www.birdflumanual.com/articles/illnessAndDeath.asp
I am not saying that an event of this magnitude will be easy for our society to handle. On the contrary, it is my view that a case fatality rate of 5% or greater will result in a temporary collapse of our economic and social order in the developed world and more prolonged and catastrophic economic, civil, and political effects in other region most particularly in Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, China, and the Koreas.
It is easy for me to identify with many of the comments made by the members of this community. Coming to terms with an event like pandemic influenza requires a great deal of thought and can be gut wrenching. It requires quite a bit of unconscious psychological processing too. I spent a lot of time playing a series of “what ifs”. This game involves imagining “if this happens the result is likely to be that”.
The journey can get pretty dark as is reflected by many comments I have read on this and other threads. As one moves along the darkness passes. At some point, the time for psychological processing will end. You emerge into the light with a better understanding of what is happening, what to do about it and when to do it. Your head is clear and you are not afraid. For the fortunate, a quite confidence develops that you will survive the pandemic. There is a certainty that you have the knowledge and resolve to help your family and friends do the same. While you remain pandemic-aware, you will no longer be pandemic-obsessed.
Reaching this state requires patience and persistence in your study and work to get an understanding of this event. You will have gathered a sufficient set of facts and realizations and begin your preparations in earnest. You will do what needs to be done, and then get on with your life. Influenza moves at its own speed and in its own time. When its time comes, you know that you will be ready to face it and will survive.
These comments remind me of my 7th grade teacher at Tuxedo Elementary School in Atlanta, GA, Mrs. Hogan. One of her favorite quotes was “Ye shall reap as ye shall sow”. In my opinion, these words apply well to our task today as we face the coming influenza pandemic.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
thank you sir
Dr. Woodson,
How did you come to the 8% worst case fatality rate?
How does one not become pandemic obsessed once one comprehends the effects of a severe pandemic?
Patch – at 22:27 In my very humble opinion (it is just a guess) I believe that it is on the way. But I need people like you who keep my head screwed on right. Those that question and doubt keep the rest of us from running into the streets yelling that the sky is falling.
Thank you dear friend Patch.
Thank you Dr. Woodson, for putting it into a little better perspective. Your words have probably soothed a few frazzled nerves.
I have been in a quiet state of confidence since I finished my prepping and know that physical needs will be taken care of to better ensure survival. Being prepared dissipates a lot of anxiety.
Patch, there’s no reason for you and your friend to feel bad about wondering about Dr. Woodson’s motives. You just didn’t know the whole story about him, that’s all. Tink no more of it. Just so you know.
er… I tink I should proofread before hitting the post button…
As Hamlet said just prior to his duel with Laertes: “The readiness is all”.
Dr. Dave: Both Hamlet and Laertes did not come out of that duel very well….
Pixie: You’re right. Although Hamlet was superior with a rapier, Laertes cheated. Better to be Horatio. Note the risky behavior in others, but take no part.
As George Bernard Shaw once wrote: “Some people are capable of learning from their mistakes. I, however, prefer to learn from others’ mistakes”.
Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP
PS: Please forgive the crass self-promotion of this book. I benefit from its sales. Just so you know! :> GW
I for one, am glad you took the opportunity to give us the link - it’s in my shopping cart now! And thanks for visiting with us here & sharing your knowledge…it’s VERY helpful.
TreasureIslandGal and NoFluingAround
Please contact demfromct at demfromct@earthlink(dot)net. Thanks
As for Crass self-promotion-
I have many writer friends, several of them published, a handful are actually successful. Ive seen crass self promotion and this dosn’t come anywhere close!
I have no problem at all with Dr. Woodson making some money from his book-writing and publishing a book is a long difficult process so why not? I doubt the good Doctor will get rich off this book, and it will give him some prepping money! Plus, he’s been fantastic to share FOR FREE so much excellent information-Ive downloaded his info and put it in a notebook. I plan to buy the two books, along with a couple of cookbooks this weekend.
Thank you Dr. Woodson!
Plus heres a thing-some people are suspicious of stuff downloaded from the net, and are more likely to “beleive” something from a bound book, than pages downloaded from the net. Could be the same info, but sometimes, presentation is all. And I like InKy just prefer having a book in my hands instead of a bunch of printed sheets.
HAving said all that, on the otherhand, I completely understand Patch’s concern. How do you know? How do any of us know another person’s motive? You have to question, like wikians question the news out of China and TPTB and decide for yourself. I understand Goju’s concern and passion, but its not as crystal clear for everyone as it seems to be for Goju. Case in point- I beleive the pandemic is unfolding now. My dh thought I was crazy. Sometimes I wanted to smack him and say “Don’t you get it?” The really scary part is that he (dh) has now come around which makes me glad on one hand-no more sneaking preps in!!!!But on the other hand, makes it worse, because he’s so sane and grounded that I can no longer comfort myself by saying “hey maybe I’m delusional about this whole flu thing.”
Actually I’m comforted by Dr. Woodsons self promotion. Otherwise, he would just be to good to be true! :-)
The Doctor – at 22:36
It is easy for me to identify with many of the comments made by the members of this community. Coming to terms with an event like pandemic influenza requires a great deal of thought and can be gut wrenching. It requires quite a bit of unconscious psychological processing too. I spent a lot of time playing a series of “what ifs”. This game involves imagining “if this happens the result is likely to be that”.
The journey can get pretty dark as is reflected by many comments I have read on this and other threads. As one moves along the darkness passes. At some point, the time for psychological processing will end. You emerge into the light with a better understanding of what is happening, what to do about it and when to do it. Your head is clear and you are not afraid. For the fortunate, a quite confidence develops that you will survive the pandemic. There is a certainty that you have the knowledge and resolve to help your family and friends do the same. While you remain pandemic-aware, you will no longer be pandemic-obsessed.
Thank you for that wonderful piece of writing. Even more enlightening and positive than Peter Sandman’s ‘adjustment reaction’ discourse.
May I add that those who are willing to play the what-if’s to their natural conclusions will suffer the most darkness but gain the most light at the end?
This thread is very good but getting long. Splitting to part 2 here
First and last relevant posts copied to new thread