I think its time we move on too a new subject not discussed very much. The implications of persons well prepared (and others) that try to get out to their “safe places” before a geographical quarantine is declared or even after…
All the discussion on catching a “falling knife” is based on that leaving should be so early, that the virus is hopefully not even present in your country or region, but that is theory not what I will expect to be the practice in all situations.
The reason why I think this way, is not that I am one of those that believes the virus will suddenly pop up all over in a few days. But I do think many, even the best prepared will try to stretch their limit very far before risking the social and practical consequences of running among the firsts. So we will maybe end up having many situations where a quarantine is declared, preventing you to get where you want, and then what?
And we will also see that folks try to get from one part of the country to the other after quarantine is declared, but before its effective. (since we have learned that PTB will not deal with this in very professional way so very quickly) and this may put us in situation that we have done something we wasn’t even aware of..
Also we will have to plan for the thousands of newbies that will flood into this forum, quickly reading some debates, and info. Hasty deciding that “grandmothers house” will be a very clever idea on any number of time during the pandemic… And then what?
After all, the intention of fluwiki, is to strengthen the healthcare, the public safety, and the citizens preparedness. And we do know that quarantines are one of public safeties most important tools to slow down or prevent spread. And we are very eager sometimes to tell countries and organizations what to do based on what seems to be the most logical solutions.
We will all of course hope and plan for the best, we will of course not be infected when we sit in that car heading for that small village in the mountain, will we?
Being a member of this board gives us great knowledge, sometimes it seems better than the authorities. With that knowledge follows responsibility. We will have to make some tools so that people do not end up being the ones that makes things worse.
A time-plan, what symptoms to look for, what kind of time-spans and behavior to do for the safe side. It has to be easy to grip, and when finished, easy to find, learn and grasp. It should also contain a plan for backup, what to do if there is a quarantine and you cant make it on the other side. And should not in any way be seen as a encouragement to break any official quarantine.
ball is yours
Planning for a “biblical” sized event takes time and much thought.
Without that planning and long time implementation, many will “will get lost in the wilderness” and perish.
TPTB, the medical profession, the media and the public have all played their parts in the making of the greatest disaster of the 21st century.
To even attempt to make a “quick fix” for Pandemic survival is foolhardy at best.
IMHO all energy should be put into getting as many prepped as possible and not believing in fairy tales.
I think this has been discussed on other threads, but if someone missed it… If you get on a limited-access highway, you might not be able to get off at your exit.
There are two major cities about 1 1/2 hours from where I live, and there are major highways going through our area.
I’ve discovered that plans are to “close off ramps and keep people moving” with the thought that they will be easier to deal with as they “thin out” further along.
I was able to get my contact to realize that many will run out of gas and the highway will become a parking lot, but that doesn’t mean that they are going to change the plan.
If they’re planning this here, they are planning it elsewhere too.
Aurora:
Were you given a time frame? Surely there is time built in for college students to drive home for instance. To get tourists back home?
Urdar Norge: I think the wicki files has everything they need. They shouldn’t go first to the discussion forum, but that is exactly what they will do and then they will post absurd questions. By then I think I will be in the hospital and frankly, I don’t think I will care about the stampede very much.
(shudder) Wish the communities would actually get all the “stakeholders”/sectors together, and talk some of this out over a few meetings, now, while there is still time.
I’ve also read short story fiction about how easy it would be to be carjacked/outgunned by gangs turned “highwaymen”.
I do think trying to go anywhere, when everyone begine to react to pandemic will be a huge problem/risk. Because I know how powerless I am, (no private helicopters here,) I had already curtailed my unessential travel, but, everyone’s risks and responsibilities are different.
I don’t think that anyone should make breaking a legally issued quarantine part of their plan.
I also think that, in most normal cases, “bugging out” is just plain suicide. There will not be enough gasoline for a migration, armed people stranded 100 miles from home with no food and water with the kids in the backseat are a disaster waiting to happen. Unless you have helped “grandma” store 3 months of food, there will be no food there either and a tent city will be not be comfortable- to say the least.
But I do think we need to be ready to have LOTS of people trying to get to FluWiki and we (individuals) need to start having alternate sites (say from our home pages) that have some of the more important files.
Speaking of breaking quarantine - what would you do if sis shows up on your doorstep 8 weeks after the pandemic hits?
I’m concerned that many won’t realize the gravity of the situation until it’s WAY too late.
Or worse yet, what if she quarantines with you, then gets cabin fever & goes shopping…
One person suggested using a camper as an isolation room for 14 days to see if they are infected, then let them in. I thought that was a brilliant idea.
From a public health standpoint a quarantine is simply impossible to enforce, or maintain. There are not enough law enforcement assets to ensure that individuals do not break a quarantine. When you put an individual, or group, in quarantine, then you become responsible for providing them food, water, medications, etc. With the number of individuals who will probably be infected during a pandemic it is not even feasible to think that this could be done. During the SARS outbreak Toronto went with a voluntary quarantine (more like social distancing) that was surprisingly effective. This will probably be the stance that public health will take during the pandemic.
ConnectRN: I agree that quarentines on a large scale won’t happen, or if they are started, enforcement will be spotty at best. One reason why quarenting worked with SARS is that SARS patients aren’t infectious until AFTER they becoem ill. This is not the case with any influenza, where a person can shed the virus for up to sevreal days BEFORE becoming ill. By the time TPTB even consider a quarentine, it will already be a full-blown outbreak - in other words, too late.
My town, and the couple of towns surrounding it, are full of weekend and seasonal homes used by Manhattanites and others who also have homes elsewhere. We even have many part-time residents who are celebrities who have homes in the megacities but who come here for respite (and play the role of the common folk and take their own garbage to the dump on the weekend!). On our own, we are fairly isolated and could prepare. But what happens when all these part-time residents realize that this town is the safer place to be, and begin winging their way here from L.A. and New York City or wherever they happen to be? There is no doubt that they’ll seek out their country refuge. There is also no doubt that they will not have prepared their refuge in any way before they arrive here. And I do think that most of them will manage to travel from all over long before any official quarantines and travel restrictions are in place. We’d do ok here on our own, but with the inundation of people coming from many other places that will be inevitable, I’m not so sure.
Very interesing thread, Urdar-Norge.
Just because quarantines may not be completely effective does not mean authorities will not use them. Agreed that the manpower needed is an enormous issue BUT!!! Initially it certainly could be done if only for a reletivly short duration (days). In the initial stages of a confirmed outbreak, I would expect a very strong “presence” of LE to be controlling civilian “movement” on the roads (and highways) as well as around hospitals and sources of supplies. I think there will be an initial period (days to a week or so) where TPTB will do their absolute damndest to keep control. The quickest and most effective way is to issue a curfew and close the roads. A simple puplic announcement- the roads are closed, the stores are overwhelmed/soldout so stay home! It is used after local and regional incidents (earthquakes, hurricanes, fires etc) to keep a lid on things. Even if the quarantine or road closures were incomplete it would definitely NOT be the time to be out traveling! All it takes is ONE road block, super jam, lack of gas or mechanical failure and your instantly homeless and part of the desperate refugee herd.
There have been posts here and elsewhere regarding the use of “strong force” planning that has been done by the military for use against civilians in the time of disaster/civil unrest in major cities. If they are to be believed (and I do), you do not want to be out and about when TSHTF.
Local communities and counties will be facing a major incident, they all know it and based on past experience, one should be prepared for potential infringements of our usual liberties.
Leo7 – at 18:08 I can’t really imagine allowances being made on a case by case basis. Think Katrina (worst case) and the likelyhood of some LE standing on the highway in full riot gear for the 25th hour listening to everyones individual “story”. I wouldn’t count on that happening.
ConnectRN – at 19:39 “When you put an individual, or group, in quarantine, then you become responsible for providing them food, water, medications, etc”
I just keep thinking Katrina. TPTB esentially created a quarantine I think and they didn’t do much providing. Doesn’t mean they can’t do or try it.
I think we also need to remember that the cordoning off of a group of contageous persons actually does work to reduce disease transmission outside of the quarantine border. It may only minimally slow the spread down and it may end up being essentially futile because of the number of infected escapees but!, Quarantines and isolation practices are used with infectious diseases because they DO work. Slowing transmission may be all we get.
Quarantines - micro scale (a few people, a building or isolated locale) can work.
- macro scale - a community, city, etc. - won’t work - Think cars, planes, trains, Trucks (moving 99% of products consumed), buses, planes, ships etc. -
The Greater San Francisco Bay Area --- from South San Jose up through the East Bay up to North Bay Area - sure there are just a few major highways … also a bizillion city streets interconnecting the “cities” together.
Who is going to do the Q? Not enough Police, Highway Patrol, Sheriff’s, National Guard, etc. to do 24 x 7.
A huge waste of manpower and more importantly, false actions..
Cases most likely will start being reported in a wide area. I don’t think it will be neat, clear and crisp where you can Q area x to protect areas y & z.
The easiest way to prevent people from moving about when you don’t want them to move about is to simply let the public gasoline stations in affected areas run out of gasoline and then just as simply do not replenish it.
quarantines slow the spread if nothing else. Part of the idea is to spread out the problem over a longer time so that the “system’s” limited resources can be used. For example instead of 1000 victims in 5 days at a hospital you may get 1000 victims over 20 days. That could be important when there are limited HCW’s. The problem, of course, is that the victims may take a month to recover no matter what you do.
I totally agree that they could not be maintained and likly would be futile(see lenthy previous threads on quarantine). My point was for this thread, that it doesn’t mean they won’t try.
The other thing to think about is the historicaly political, often racial use of quarantines. They are not just to keep people IN!
aurora – at 18:02
Not just running out of gas, but how do they expect people to thin out if they’re not letting anyone off (but still letting people on) ? Are they hoping that disease will thin them out ?
“Were you given a time frame? Surely there is time built in for college students to drive home for instance. To get tourists back home?”
There wouldn’t be time the way it was originally planned.
It wasn’t until we talked that he realized that people would run out of gas, and he said “Wow, our commuters wouldn’t be unable to get off the highway too – and if someone was at the ramp to check ID’s so that our residents could get back home from the city, that would tie up traffic.”
It wasn’t until we hung up that it dawned on me that I should have told him it would create a riot if they let some people get off the highway and not others.
Nothing seems to be thought out. I hope they will change the plan
Pixie is right about gasoline. First, locals will take out most of the pumps. I’m betting gas stations will go to credit card only, no cash and no coming inside. If you’re on the interstate and you run out?? It’s your feet after that. Panic mode will keep a lot of people from being humane. MAV in Col is right about them not wanting to hear every sob story, so some exits will be blocked. Ugly scenario to take to the roads, you will be stuck in your car.
I’m glad I’m not bugging out. I hope parents of college students have a secret text message to send to tell them to hit the road, or otherwise I hope colleges have a plan.
‘’‘waprepper – at 19:36 Speaking of breaking quarantine - what would you do if sis shows up on your doorstep 8 weeks after the pandemic hits?
Or worse yet, what if she quarantines with you, then gets cabin fever & goes shopping… ‘’‘
My sister ( who is NOT prepping ) will be here tomorrow from out of state. She will get a list handed to her, with what to bring WITH HER, if she comes here. Don’t come here without it, in other words.
My mother might try to get out; but that’s a simple matter of taking the distributor off of her car ! And mine, too; come to think of it…..that’d be a great way to keep thieves from stealing YOUR car to get themselves out of town.
‘’‘waprepper – at 19:36 Speaking of breaking quarantine - what would you do if sis shows up on your doorstep 8 weeks after the pandemic hits?
Or worse yet, what if she quarantines with you, then gets cabin fever & goes shopping… ‘’‘
My sister ( who is NOT prepping ) will be here tomorrow from out of state. She will get a list handed to her, with what to bring WITH HER, if she comes here. Don’t come here without it, in other words.
My mother might try to get out; but that’s a simple matter of taking the distributor off of her car ! And mine, too; come to think of it…..that’d be a great way to keep thieves from stealing YOUR car to get themselves out of town.
OMIGOSH - that’s brilliant!
That’s why I hang out with you guys. I never thought of that - and was wondering how we would keep our car from being stolen if we left one behind in the garage. (we’re bugging out to our “vacation home” - but it’s only 30 min away)
But seriously, what are you going to do if she does show up empty handed, and coughing? You can’t just point the shotgun at her and say “move along now…”
We plan to have a couple of cheap campers parked outside as isolation rooms.
We have not told anyone where our “vacation home” is. Otherwise, all the people we warned to prep who ignored us will be on our doorstep, hungry and afraid. And what are you going to do, shoot them? I don’t think so! You are warning them because you LOVE them…
And about the large scale quarantines - I think it’s going to be “Katie shut the barn door - the cows are in the corn!”
Any quarantine they put in place will be sooooo long after we are bugged out that I don’t even think about it. (I hope! We are watching daily here and several other sources, for that purpose)
The main concern is can we get loved ones out before it’s too late.
They all think we’re nuts, and will probably not come for help until things get really bad. By that time it may be too late.
Leo7 – at 03:05
“I hope parents of college students have a secret text message to send to tell them to hit the road, or otherwise I hope colleges have a plan.”
You can bet that colleges will have a plan, and it will be to close down and send everybody home. Consider this, if they house students during a pandemic, they become legally liables for deaths and disabilities of those students because somewhere there is a lawyer who will argue that the student would not have been infected if the school had allowed him/her to go home.
I have worked in Higher Education for 30 years and I can guarantee you that the President and/or Provost of any college or University doesn’t even pass gas without first checking with the Chief Legal Officer.
waprepper – at 14:23 And about the large scale quarantines - I think it’s going to be “Katie shut the barn door
That had me jumping off my chair!! I had JUST moments before finished relaying a dream to my DH that I had around 7am this morning in which the punch line was “Katie, bar the door!” I had been dreaming of Katie Holmes and then sort of became semi-lucid within that dream to ask myself why she was in the dream. As soon as I said her name, I of course got that Holmes = HOME. Before I could ask my dream-self another question about this, I clearly heard “Katie, bar the door!” and KNEW that this was confirmation of our decision to SIP. Since there was no sense of urgency about this [emphasis, yes] I took it as the “Get Ready” part of “Ready, Set, GO.” Guess I ought to post this on the Dream thread as well.
a’Akova – at 00:47
“Not just running out of gas, but how do they expect people to thin out if they’re not letting anyone off (but still letting people on) ? Are they hoping that disease will thin them out ?”
I believe they are thinking it will thin out the way traffic thins out on a large highway after a major league football game – eventually the further away you get from the stadium the thinner the traffic. Of course the traffic thins out after a football game because people get off the highway, but that didn’t seem to have occurred to them.
How do you sit at a meeting and say “close the ramps” and no one realizes that people will run out of gas?
They really haven’t figured out that this isn’t just a seasonal flu. They seem to think that pandemic flu fits into an all hazards plan. “There really isn’t a difference between this any other disaster. We’re used to handling floods.”
I did explain the many ways that this is not like the natural disasters that we’ve handled in the recent past.
Even Mayor Bloomburg had his Lexus and driver carjacked over in Hackensack a day or so ago. Carjackings in our area seem to have slacked off, but we had slews of them in certain large developments where the carjackers picked and chose the best, it was near an interstate. You didn’t have that phenomena back in 1918.It was common for people in our town to leave their doors unlocked as well as their cars unlocked, then the world caught up with us.
txh for good discusion, please continue (I am in opsite timezone so want hang around to much)
I see some practical isues raised that need corections, “14 days in a camper outside” I dont think 14 days is the corect timespan, I think more like 4–7 days. We need to find this info, make a timespan list: last point of infection risk? How many in group? when to be considered safe, What to to if you are in a strange place, and need help?..
How to inform people that fleeing may be the first idea but probably a very bad one? Shall we leave this discussion TPTB?
.. Second, most people dont have a extra campers, tents are the number one iten in any refugee situation. So what do you need then? Latrines (very infective), heath, water etc.. some to think of. You have garages I think (as in all amercan movies you know :-D why not use them? You need some plan to care for someone ariving and becoming sick in this “garden quarantene period… You need to plan for beeing caught on the higway as you say.. what if your preps is in the car, can you carry it…?? Bicycles..
And very important, a plan that will prevent you from being to late and to early.. but that is another dsicussion going on here everyday .)
MAinVA - Oops I mixed my idioms
“shut the barn door - the cows are in the corn” - they used to say this up on Grandma’s farm - meaning to “too little, too late”
It’s too late to shut the door - they are already out & eating the corn. You should have shut it WAY long ago…
Then there is “Katie bar the door” which means get ready for trouble. It’s used a lot in the south meaning, “something unstoppable [is coming]”.
World Wide Words
I would like to visit the dream thread - how do you find it?
Look how many campers people are trying to get rid of on craigslist:
http://craigslist.org/ search for “camper”
Sometimes in my area they are even free - people don’t have space to store them.
They already have a propane fridge, stove, heater, potty etc. Sure they will need some work to clean up & make nice, but perfect isolation room.
About incubation period - here’s what I found on wikipedia:
The human incubation period of avian influenza A (H5N1) is 2 to 17 days. Once infected, the virus can spread by cell-to-cell contact, bypassing receptors. So even if a strain is very hard to initially catch, once infected, it spreads rapidly within a body.
New England Journal of Medicine says the same:
The incubation period of avian influenza A (H5N1) may be longer than for other known human influenzas. In 1997, most cases occurred within two to four days after exposure; recent reports indicate similar intervals but with ranges of up to eight days. The case-to-case intervals in household clusters have generally been 2 to 5 days, but the upper limit has been 8 to 17 days, possibly owing to unrecognized exposure to infected animals or environmental sources.
waprepper: Since both my DH and I were raised on farms and were familiar with both sayings, I merely saw your words as 1] a confirmation of my dream message, and 2] a simple Freudian slip. Have to say that I did have a moment to reconsider whether the message was also trying to say that it was “too late,” but that didn’t resonate with what I felt was happening in the dream, so shrugged it off.
If I have time [dinner almost ready] later, I’ll post the link to the dream thread. It is called, “I had my first pandemic dream last night” and seems to have dropped way down in the last day; however it is up to at least II now, if not III.
a’Akova – at 00:47 “Not just running out of gas, but how do they expect people to thin out if they’re not letting anyone off (but still letting people on) ?
As long as the herd is down the road I don’t think any LE will care! as long as they are not their problem. “Just move along now……..
I think that could be a common theme. Cities, counties maybe even states locking down to attempt to protect thier own.
mine above
anonymous – at 20:06 “Just move along ..
I hate to admit the “dark side” exists, but I know that some of the meth lab houses here have burned down. I would not doubt that some vacation cottages might suffer a similar fate if some locals thought it would stem the influx of “outsiders”. “Grandma’s” vacation house in the country just might not be there when you need it. From what I understand such things happened during 1918. Local people would meet the trains with shotguns and not let anyone off. I think it is that attitude that scares me the most. At the least, I think there will be a lot of small towns that will shut out others once they see riots and coffins in the big cities.
I am in denial- I just don’t like thinking about such things. Cities will be quarantined- count on it and small ones will quarantine to keep others out. I don’t like this, I would rather think about how to help may neighbor.
I would hate to think that the one doctor “loaned from another governmental entity” would be asked to “just move along”.
Rural Dweller – at 21:12 “one doctor “loaned from another governmental entity” would be asked to “just move along””
that is exactly what the state of Lousianna did durring Katrina.
Well, that is a perfect example of local preparedness and how it ties into state plans. The state authorities supposedly have plans in place but they are certainly not working with municipalities nor their citizens, nor are they ensuring there are “local” plans in place. Bush announced they can’t rescue citizens so state and county and locals seem to have their own plans, or claim they do. Someone or some entity needs to be accountable prior to an incident. As it stands now, all I know is big government won’t assist and local government is deferring to county and is your county keeping you informed? Individuals need to prepare for themselves and know they need to rely on themselves. That’s my common sense (learned opinion).