Forum: Keeping the Grid Up 4

Part 3

OnAndAnon – at 10:14

ACM-

Things have changed a great deal in the power business in just the last few years. COntinued emphasis on cost reduction combined with social changes have resulted in an extremely ‘brittle’ infrastructure. FYI the assessment where I work is that the grid can be expected to go down nationally for an extended period if the pandemic is as bad as 1918 or worse.

NauticalMan – at 10:19

Amazing to see the efficiency of some of these modern woodstoves. After the energy crisis in the 70′s stove companies popped up all over, there were many good ones, but most went out of business when the price of oil dropped and conservation went out the window during the 80′s. Many folks removed their stoves, kept mine, an old Mid Moe, company gone now I believe. It has come in handy a few times when we have had power outages. Six or so years back had a major electrical tower come down from an ice storm, no power for 3 or 4 days, was the only one in my neighborhood with heat. This being the middle of the coldest part of Winter, had a lot of visitors coming over for a hot cup of tea. That is something I do not like to think about in a Pandemic. Could not do so for them in a SIP.

While it would be nice to have one of the newer clean burning stoves, financially it would not make sense. My old stove, once it is burning well, puts out almost no visible smoke, has a tremendous draft and heat output, keeps my 1300 Sq.Ft house and basement warm and cozy. Will be getting another wood rack for the garage. Hopefully that will be enough for 5 or 6 weeks. Have read all of this thread on keeping the grid up. While I agree that some of these worst case scenarios could take place, also think that TPTB will make their biggest efforts in this area and that we will have power at least some of the time because the consequences without it are unthinkable after a short period. Bottom line for my preps in this regard is that we are planning for a middle ground. As someone has said before, think it was on a thread for emergency lighting, if the (light) (power) is off for more than a couple of weeks we will be in deep trouble.

At this point, I don’t think it will be possible to keep a national grid up if a very severe pandemic occurs this winter. Too many states have failed to any real planning. However, I think it is possible to create regional grids that will provide power to some areas of the country.

I throw out this scenario/plan for discussion:

Assumptions

• A very severe pandemic occurs. CFR rate 5% or higher. Attack rate, variable.
• Cities, states and regions with little or no planning will have a very high attack rate - 30% or higher. Areas with extensive planning for a severe pandemic will have a much lower attack rate - 5% or lower.
• Cities that have high attack rates will not be able to maintain their power plants. Cities that have low attack rates will.
• California and the Northeastern states have done little to no planning for a severe pandemic. Hence, we will lose energy produced by their power plants. Texas is doing some plannning for a severe pandemic. Other cities and states within the middle third of the country are as well.
• Governors will not be willing to sacrifice the lives of their citizens to provide power for areas that did not plan.

Plan

• Establish regional co-operative zones involving the states that are planning for a severe pandemic.
• The goal would be to create self-sufficient zones that could maintain the basics of civilisation - Water, Food and Electricity to facilitate the first two priorities
• Considerations
  • Water would be a local responsibility. Water plant operators would be provided with PPE and trained in their use, pre-pandemic.
  • All residents in the co-operative zone would encouraged to stockpile food, water and medical supplies for at least 8 weeks.
  • Extensive planning would go into creating a regional grid. This would include planning for instability. It would also include planning for workers and their families to shelter in place at the power plants with all necessary supplies. There would be co-operative agreements for sharing natural gas and coal. Workers involved in extracting and transporting fuel would be deemed essential and would also receive PPE and training.

Ideally, this would happen at the National level, but there is no indication it will. The CDC and many local public health officials dismiss the possibility of a severe pandemic out of hand. OTOH, some states are preparing to some degree.

The middle one-third of the country has water, food, and energy. With proper planning, I think a co-operative region that is functional, even during a very severe pandemic, could survive with the basics of civilisation.

I think cities should look into Industrial gas turbines to provide electricity…I know fuel is the central issue, but so is getting the grid back up and shielding nuclear power plants from fluctuations. The shielding and rapid adjustment to small grid line fluctuations is what a gas turbine does very very well. They could be very useful for pulling us out of the “dark ages.” Years ago, I sold these jet engines on a skid with a generator attached. I no longer have any connection to the industry, but have general knowledge of this topic.

Biogas from citizen loo-waste? Only half kidding here!

I agree very much with AndAnAnon and Monotreme. Much of our power infrastructure has been sold off to operators heavy on gaming the system, and is being utilized a “cash generators”. The money is put to use ways NONE of which include maintenance and infrastructure. I would estimate that, on the average, you are more likely to see continued power if you have a local or regional non-profit utility that, while it may like to bring in money, has the goal of keeping the city/area going even if its simply to respond to local voters. Entities like Enron have taken over large portions of the grid, whose basic purpose is to corner markets and inject 100x markups, which are not a good capitalistic model (there are other capitalist models!) for the overall benefit of citizenry. The true extent of their “econonomies” (cutting personnel, maintenance, expansion of basic capability) will only become clear when the system is stressed. That price we will very likely soon pay. Before the existence of megapolis-type population centers, alternatives disussed here had some vialbility for much of the population (hmm, do any people on these lists live in downtown high-rises? seems like not!). Now you have centers where 100 million people are going to die when the power is out for more than a week or 2. Much quicker for people on higher floors of high rises - by the time need for water drives them down, they’ll have no ability to climb 60 flights back up! The elderly and disabled are goners much sooner. 1/3 of the US population is hanging by this fragile thread (power) we are continually adding weight to.

May I say “climbing 60 flights back up IN PITCH BLACKNESS”

‘treme-

just how will the CAR be so different? I doubt that even the best prepared city will see a CAR more than 20% below the totally unprepared locale….. Am I missing something?

Given my assumption, the only difference between the two is how quickly the ERs get overloaded, and how many docs and nurses survive. Now, it’s possible that these differences may add up to a lot in the event, as the worse of these two may be just enough to “tip”, while the better may not, but I doubt strongly that if you knew to the day when this would happen, and had a year to get everyone ready, that there would be much preparation in the populace.

Fiddlerdave – at 15:06 Much of our power infrastructure has been sold off to operators heavy on gaming the system, and is being utilized a “cash generators”.

You make an excellent case for truly deregulating the system. Currently, returns on investments in transmission are regulated, so the utilities can make more profit by investing in anything other than the trasmission infrastructure. With profits dictated in that way by the regulators, investors are reticent to put their money in grid infrastruture.
Rather than call for more centralized regulation, we ought to be calling for deregulation of the grid.

Heard on the news that they’ve had over 1000 utility workers in and around Buffalo trying to get the power back on. Think that will happen if TSHTF? No way. No how.

Again, the problem will not be so much the generation of the power, it will be in the distrubution. You can build homes, supply the workers and construct walls around the generation plants but it will not keep the grid up. I would not count on the grid staying up if TSHTF. Anything over a few percent death rate, and it will go down and stay down for 6 months or a year- until a vaccine is available.

Someone mentioned having crews work one week shifts, with oncoming crew quarantining before taking over. I don’t see that as viable because if someone were exposed he may not show symptoms for a few days meanwhile infecting other on coming crew members. Total quarantine from start to finish, in my humble non medical opinion, is the only thing that will work.

I would also recommend starting with as many workers as possible, not minimum staffing. Rationale being some workers will get word of other family members (brothers, sisters, moms) dying and will feel obligated to do whatever, that involve leaving the site. Naturally, they could not be allowed back in. This contradicts some utility plans and the NERC plan, which calls for minimum staffing.

DennisC. I envision if a distribution line fails or many fail due to a storm that those folks are just plain SOL. Distribution generally stays intact unless some unusual force acts on it. (storm, pole hit by car, buried cable dug up). There will probably be storms knocking out distribution, but i’m guessing 90% of the wires end of the grid should remain intact for duration of pandemic.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 18:00 wires end of the grid should remain intact for duration of pandemic

How many utility lines go down during a riot?

It could just as easily be stated that a regulated control area operator would seek to import the least expensive power, in order to increase their margins. The only way that deregulation could spur further investments would be by raising rates, which is contrary to the objective of deregulation.

I agree that the workforce and investments have been cut to the bone in order to maximize short term margins; I’ve chosen to prepare for a grid outage, and would encourage others to do so as well.

or if someplace; high-density housing, catches on fire, and doesn’t get put out in time, wouldn’t it bring down wires?

Also might there be a few more car accidents in the beginning of a pandemic as people try to get back to wherever they want to be?

(“if you knew to the day when this would happen, and had a year to get everyone ready,” there would be much more preparation in the populace than there is doing it this way; not telling them plainly they may have to cope for months, and it may have a high cfr.)

In my view, it is regrettably overoptimistic to think that there will be much difference between the results vis-a-vis the national grid with a well prepared city versus a totally unprepared city. Now, that said, I think the outcome would be very different. A well prepared city would have plans for dealing with this sort of situation, would have limited local power generation capability on hand and would ration/distribute power (an hour a day or some such) to all the residents. Residents would know when they were going to get their juice and for how long. I am sure the lower class neighborhoods would get theirs at the least convenient times, but everyone would know that they’d get water pumped to them and that they’d be able to charge batteries or whatever at that time. There would be no panic and limited civil disorder. Now the likelihood that any locality is going to pay the price for this preparedness ranges IMO from slim to none.

You guys and gals are so cheerie. Thank you. Been following this and am planning for no grid. This is gonna be hard and really really sad.

“Think of it as evolution in action” - Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle

I will repeat my “free advice” for the city dewellers- get an inverter, deep cycle(marine) battery and a battery charger. That way you can “capture” some power for times of brown outs. I would think that at the very least, there may be rotating blackouts.

got it Dennis, got solar, got invertors, got batteries and one hell of a charger and on and on. I will hear the cries on the wind and my soul will bleed as those around me fall from the greed and inaction of those that knew what was coming.

PF is horrific enough—to die in the darkness, empty belly amnd burning-numbing cold..

Had a bad day. Done now.

Alrighty then ;−0

Don’t count on utilities selling their power to cities/areas that lose their power, unless they have an excess of generation. Utilities will ensure their customers have power first and that their distribution system stays online. If they lose a line or area, they will switch it out and leave it out if they don’t have the personnel to put it back in. I don’t think they will have the personnel in a pandemic to put it back in service.

You serve all you can for as long as you can.

Option 2 is shut everything down and go home until the first wave is over. Then come back and pick up the pieces. Probably not a good option with public opinion.

But, what are the chances of maintaining a totally sterile generation facility during a pandemic.

You still have deliveries coming in. If you don’t, you won’t be running too long. You will have to have the families of the employees on site in order to retain loyalty/presence of those working.

The problems/obstacles just keeps getting larger and more cumbersome and the odds of pulling it off get smaller and smaller.

OnandAnon – at 15:40

just how will the CAR be so different? I doubt that even the best prepared city will see a CAR more than 20% below the totally unprepared locale….. Am I missing something?

Depends on the size of the city and the effectiveness of the communications campaign. For the megacities, I agree, there is no way to get the attack rate down. For a small city? Yes, I think it’s possible. If you tell people the truth, which will scare the bejeezus out of them, most will prep. The city would also have to store some food for the people who refuse to prepare. It would also help if the city is in a remote location and roads can be blocked. Once the pandemic starts, you declare martial law and order everyone to remain in their homes. If they’ve got water, food and power, there is no reason for them to leave their homes and risk death. Lawbreakers would be dealt with harshly.

Still, a 5% attack rate is the best case scenario. I acknowledge that most cities will not achieve this. However, the main thing is to protect the essential workers. Hopefully it would be possible to get their attack rate down to 5% with respirators, gloves and sufficient supplies for shelter at work for them and their families. Planning and pre-pandemic action is the key to acheiving this, IMO.

We should all plan to be without power. Guaranteeing power for everyone should not be the goal, IMO. The primary goal should be to provide enough power for a few core functions. Here’s my priority list:

• Water treatment plants and sewage
• Natural gas lines
• Refineries
• Food processing factories (only the bare minimum).

No attempts to provide power for businesses (except for agriculture and food processing). Power for hospitals and homes, only if there is excess. The four priorities listed above would also be priorities for repairing damaged power lines. Other power lines would left until the local outbreak was over (about 2 months). In between waves, make as many repairs as possible.

DennisC – at 18:24

How many utility lines go down during a riot?

The megacities will be toast, IMO. In my mind, I’ve already written most of them off. But there are still small and medium-sized cities that might be saved.

Where on the list should the following be placed:

Police Fire Emergency Medical Service 911 Call Centers Telehone switching facilities Cell phone towers TV Stations Radio Stations

LMWatBullRun – at 19:37

Now the likelihood that any locality is going to pay the price for this preparedness ranges IMO from slim to none.

I think there a few cities that are preparing, quietly. Sadly, there aren’t enough respirators, ventilators and food for everyone. If you really think this is going to happen, you might not want to advertise what you’re doing too loudly. Once more mayors and governors wake up, resources will become very scarce, and very expensive, very quickly. Full preps will be available to only a small number of cities, IMO. First come, first serve.

Mamabird – at 22:06

Where on the list should the following be placed:

Police Fire Emergency Medical Service 911 Call Centers Telehone switching facilities Cell phone towers TV Stations Radio Stations

At the bottom of list. I imagine car patrols by police and National Guard. If they see someone doing anything stupid, they shoot them. Neighborhoods will have to provide their own security.

There are special radios for use by emergency workers, but I can’t remember what they are called. I also don’t know what their power requirements are. Emergency workers are the only ones who need communications equipment.

DennisC – at 19:46

I will repeat my “free advice” for the city dewellers- get an inverter, deep cycle(marine) battery and a battery charger. That way you can “capture” some power for times of brown outs. I would think that at the very least, there may be rotating blackouts.

Could you make specific recommendations? “Buy this battery”, “buy this inverter”, “buy this charger” and write a guide for dummies on how to put it together and use it safely? For those of us who are electronically challenged, the simplest equipment to use would be the best.

It would be nice to have something like this on the Wiki side. If you put this on this thread, I’ll put on the Wiki.

KimT – at 19:38 KimT – at 19:57 :

I have planned for this, I have taken all of the actions I can to deal with it, but in the end I do not know if my family will be able to mentally deal with it. I know what is coming, I have tried over and over again to get them to “see” what is coming, I just hope I am strong enough for them.

I flatly disagree with the idea that deregulation would in any way promote preparedness on the part of utilities. Regulators have been very generous in the past with allowing charges that gave a return on investment for infrastructure expenditures. Without regulation, the only issue is the current quarter’s profits. You observe daily any company making a long term investment being punished by stock price drops, no matter how good the investment made. By pure capitalistic evaluation, I would imagine there is NO point in doing ANYTHING to prepare for disasters like pandemics or war. A lot of people will be out of work, so who is gonna pay their bill anyway? Just as has been done recently by for-profit hospitals, etc., grab what money you can get when sailing is smooth, when a big problem hits, grab the cash, close the business and go sit in your gold-plated refuge. I have yet to see anyone suggest we put a bid out specifying,without regulation, “Defend the United States against aggression” and take low bidder to replace our “socialized” military. Infrastructure, health care, and disaster preparedness in the age of the megopolis is no different - there are minor steps people can do for themselves individually, but there IS NO profit in planning for the unlikely worst case, so as a society, we should use the power of cooperative agreement to handle preparations that don’t result in likely motivation (profit). Everyone personally in a dense city having 6 months gasoline, propane, generators, wood, stoves, etc is not only impractical and inefficient, its rather undesirable. It would, I suppose, increase urban renewal at the cost of extremely higher insurance rrates.

Monotreme – at 22:19

I would think that Eccles would be better at this than I. But here is something to get you started with. You will want to at least look up some of those old “solar” threads.

First this is just a “small system” just for a few lights, a computer, radio, that kind of thing. It is not for refrigerators, electric heaters, power tools and the big current type of items. Just a Quick and dirty start.

I will give the Wal-Mart type of items since that is what most people have access to. However, I would just shop locally and see what “deals” I may find. (For example, you sometimes find good deals on inverters in pawnshops).

The key thing is the battery. You will want to be sure it is a “deep cycle” battery. The kinds they use in golf carts or marine electric trolling motors. Auto batteries will “die” after a few dozen deep power drains. You can start with one battery and then connect more in series with them. (I will leave it to Eccles to suggest any optional protective circuits). Wal-Mart has marine batteries. I would just start with which ever one you can afford. The larger the amp-hour rating, the more “power” (OK energy for purists) you can store.

The inverter should be rated for about twice the load you expect to be using. Wal-Mart has a Whistler 800-Watt Power Inverter for about $57. It can put out 800 watts continuous or 1600 peak. You should be able to use it for 500 W with no problems.

For the charger, just use a regular automotive 12V battery charger. The kinds that are “automatic” are the best. They are designed not to over “cook” your battery and you can just leave them on all the time (in case you don’t know when the power will be on). I use the 6-amp Black and Decker “smart battery charger”.

All you do is connect the charger to the battery (red to positive and so on), connect the inverter to the battery (red to positive- see its directions), then plug in the charger. You should now have a back up power system. (I am guess, at a price around 120 to $200).

You now can plug in a few items into the inverter and have power even when the there are “rotating blackouts”. If you want to get fancy you can add a small solar array (like from Real Goods) where the charger is. Or you can even run a jumper cable from a running car to the battery to charge it. (But do your homework first on that).

It will not give you lots of power, but at least you should be able to run a few lights, computer and radio for some time even when there are short blackouts.

Eccles if you are out there, please jump in and help here.

monotreme.

i don’t, respectfully, understand how you think some cities will go relatively unscathed while others will fail miserably. this is 2006/07. 1918 did not have the interstate highway system and air travel of today. please expound.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:07

I copy that.

We want to avoid politics, but I can see how the issue of de-regulation affects the stability of the grid. My understanding is that some utilities are still owned/controlled by local or state governments and some are owned by private companies. I can see how this presents a problem for DOE and DHS in requiring serious preparations. Private companies will complain they can’t afford an unfunded mandate and state governments might resent federal intrusion.

I don’t think we really have a national grid; we have a collection of competing interests that co-operate just enough to avoid too many interruptions in service. It’s hard to imagine a worse arrangement for emergency planning.

IMO, the only solution is federal mandates for preparations coupled with federal money to pay for them. Any power plant that fails to comply loses their license. A national study of how to improve the relability of transmission should be done. The federal government should then pay for any necessary upgrades. If this benefits particular companies over others, tax adjustments should be made to make things fair. Just my 2 cents.

DennisC – at 23:03

Thanks. I’ll go to Walmart this week and check some of this stuff out. I may have more questions later.

Jumpin’ Jack Flash – at 20:31

Jumpin’ Jack Flash – at 20:31

that was not me

Yes, check Walmart and what ever local Auto store you might have locally. It only takes a battery, charger and inverter. - Deep cycle battery, inverter with a wattage bigger than your expected load, and a “smart” charger. - You might get more “help” at an auto or boat shop than Wal-Mart. (No offence, but I have not been impressed with the technical help at most Wal-marts)

Anon_451 – at 22:22 Thanks me too. I have watched my sister die of cancer, my daughter die and my children stuggle to breath. I’m actually kind of tough and yet today my baby kitties died and I’m mad at myself for not being tougher.

I need to get tougher.

KimT: It has always been my contention that the more caring you are, the more emotionally involved in any relationship, the more deeply you will be affected by the loss. It is better to suffer the loss than not to have given joy to those you love. As far as tough, I know an ex-Special Forces guy with whom I have had some interesting discussions with on his creative use of Tomahawks in his former line of work. He is as tough as they come, but now that he is back home, he is brought to tears at the loss of any of his puppies. To live with your losses, you are plenty tough.

Don’t get tougher. Get more hugs!

Monotreme – at 22:19

The particulars of different setups have been covered extensively in the “Solar and etc,” threads. I agree with Dennis C that everyone who possibly can should get the materials to at least capture some energy when it is available for use when it is not. In all of the different areas of prepping, this has been the most expensive for me and the learning curve is important because you are working with stored energy in sufficent amounts to cause problems if you are not careful. That said, anybody who can follow directions and can tell red from black can do this and I got a good portion of my materials from Walmart and Advance Auto.

Mono - I agree. Politics are totally caught up in this mess. The industry was deregulated to theoretcailly bring in competition, like it did with banking,airlines, etc. However, to de-regulate, prices were going to have to go up in the short term until new players could come into the market. Clearly generating and distributing power requires HUGE capital investment, something which isn’t going to happen overnight. Well, consumers complained to their politicians about prices going up, so almost all states put artificial price caps into place to hold prices so low that no one wanted to come into the market because they couldn’t make any money. And existing companies, while still profitable, were not raking in huge $$$ either, also because of the low prices, and were not making capital investments to meet increasing demand.

Now in many states those price caps are set to expire. Unless politicans step in again, prices will shoot up. Here in CT they are set to go up at least 25% next year. In IL the main power company has told the state legislature that unless it can raise prices it will go bankrupt.

So, we’re left with an aging infrastucture that is insufficient to meet even current demand, let alone future increased demand. No one wants to enter the market until they see what happens with pricing restrictions. If politicans muck into them again (which they will because consumers will complain and politicians’ main goal in life is to get re-elected) then we are looking at a further disintegration of the entire system.

I’m going now to go stroke my new propane tank and generator. Now that I’ve read what I wrote I’m thinking it may have been the best prep ever after water and food.

LauraB – at 06:07 “I’m going now to go stroke my new propane tank and generator. Now that I’ve read what I wrote I’m thinking it may have been the best prep ever after water and food.”

I give mine a pat every time I walk past it.

Battery charger— I bought mine at Sam’s club. A small lightweight unit that has 3 settings and automatically charges and shuts off when done. Works great so far. Used it a few times and no complaints. Even tests the charging of your car and told me I had a bad cell in my car battery a few weeks before it died on me.

Here in Oklahoma we have a number of electric cooperatives - see link below. What this means is the people who are served the electricity are part owners of the cooperative. In the electric coop I am a part of there has been quite a significant amount of upgrades in infrastructure over the past few years. The reason why? We the owners want and need it. Wind and ice storms have shown that this type of investment is needed and pays off by mitigating the effects of nature. I would suggest that when a electric company states that it is about to go bankrupt, the people it serves should form a coop, buy the electric company and then serve themselves. Much easier said than done I am sure, but this is one solution to a long term problem.

http://www.oaec.com/Directory.php

Here is a map of electric cooperatives in Texas:

Well shoot fire, I caused side scroll big time. Forgot it does that with gifs. Sorry folks.

My bad.

Okieman

How’s that?

Looks good. Thanks pogge.

Jumping Jack Flash @23:23

Sorry, I didn’t know you were using the pseudonym.

Didn’t want to use mine for anonymity.

LauraB, I have to disagree with the factual basis of your statements. In California, there were stupendous price increases - at times, power on the spot market sold at a factor of 10,000 TIMES normal spot prices. Tremendous effort was spent by companies like Enron, NOT on new capacity, but ways to artificially FURTHER REDUCE EXISTING POWER GENERATION (power plant and distribution line shutdowns, phony contracts) to sell and resell current arificially-reduced now-inadequate power at panic prices. Some of these discussions are on tape, there is no guesswork as to the plans and their purpose. I would submit this market might work with no regulation if the Amish were the principle generators, but I have to say it did demonstrate the only thing worse than governmental inefficient management is private coporation fraud and totally short-term, ZERO-thought-to-the-future avarice. Californians still have 10′s of billions of dollars of long term debt to get over this period, that despite the enormous costs, still had rolling blackouts daily. This money didn’t and never was going to go to generation capacity - this is a market that, like oil, would always work hard to have not-enough capacity. Having enough power available only LOWERS the price and profitability, as the oil cartels have well learned. Why would our pseudo-free market capitalists ever produce enough? It is to the entire COUNTRY’s advantage to have solidly available reasonably-priced power that will survive disasters, it is NOT of interest to a profit-orientated power producer. Just as it is best for vaccine producers to never have enough, always shortages drive the price up.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:07

i don’t, respectfully, understand how you think some cities will go relatively unscathed while others will fail miserably. this is 2006/07. 1918 did not have the interstate highway system and air travel of today. please expound.

I responded on the 16th, but Flu Wiki ate my post ;-)

First, you don’t have to be respectful, I’m guessing like everyone else.

Planes will lose all customers after the first dead guy is unloaded off a plane and his seat mates are quarantined, imo. I expect highways will be blocked on the orders of the State governors. This is in many state panflu plans. Locals will block the backroads. This happened in a small town near NOLA during Katrina.

If a severe pandemic occurs, I expect the megacities to burn to the ground and for hugh numbers of people to try to walk out. Surrounding areas will be overwhelmed. However, I don’t think very many people will be able to walk more than 200 miles. There are lots of small and medium sized cities in the middle of the country that are this far from any megacity.

These cities won’t be unscathed, but they will be less scathed, IMO. Especially if they prepare. And some of them are. A few are being open about it. Others are preparing with less fanfare. There is only so much storable food, N-100′s and ventilators to go around. Those who see the writing on the wall are making their orders. Those that haven’t figured it out, well, soon it’s going to be too late.

First come, first serve.

Monotreme, I’ve now started giving the Panflu message to all at my company. Not being too over the top about it, just that it could get bad and there is now a need to prepare at work and at home. This will ramp up fairly quickly as I distribute more info.

I agree with Monotreme in that there may be locations where there is less, possibly no, *collateral* damage in the event of a severe or very severe pandemic. I doubt, however, that this will include any city over 50,000 to 100,000 people, or any city within 100 miles of a city 500,000 or larger.

I also agree that the more isolated cities are less likely to see collateral collapses; there may be a pandemic just bad enough to cause the collapse of the big cities but not large enough to start the collapse of the medium sized cities. At first.

However, have you considered the effect on those cities not yet burning of watching New York burning on CNN, and the resulting looting and rioting? My guess is that within a day of seeing major cities collapse there will be chaos in almost every city over 50,000 east of the Rocky Mountains and west of the Cascade range, and in EVERY city over 500,000 regardless of location.

Remember, “Manage the Media” is on ‘most everyplaces Page 1

if it came to it, I’d hazard they’d stop showing people what was going on in other places, (in the interest of “national security”, or “not scaring kids home from school watching tv”?) and only be giving out home care info, public service announcements, local instructions, ect, while the grid lasts.

Monotreme’s analysis rings true with me. Expect those people fleeing the cities to become extremely desperate and violent as time goes on. Groups with some organization will be at great advantage, Mormons will do very well, unforunately the militias that develop from street gangs, renegade police and military groups will do well also. A “black pill” or spare bullets to avoid surviving for the amusement and service of some of these latter groups once you or your family are in their hands will be good to have.

And remind me again please, what CFR (or even infection rate) are you projecting the grid will fall at?

Fiddlerdave – at 00:13 - Maybe the feds will decide a prudent action is to nationalize all the power generation and distribution facilities, at least for the duration of a pandemic.

LMWatBullRun – at 17:24.

When Katrina hit New Orleans there were refugees overwhelming shelters in cities within about a 500 mile radius. Most vehicles can make it 300 - 400 miles on a tank of gas. Everyone from everywhere will be converging on everthing, including the best prepped regions, IMO.

N.O. was one city. If all cities greater than 100,000 have people fleeing, I don’t know where they will flee to. But many will end up near where you or I live, (unless you live in timbuck2) and they will be hungry, thirsty, and cold. So will their kids.

Also of note. Last week a freak snow storm battered Western New York. Several ares were without water as well as power, due to power failures.

It will be curious to see how the NY thing plays out. How long they were out of water, primarily, and how they dealt with that.

“LEG – at 19:18 It will be curious to see how the NY thing plays out. How long they were out of water, primarily, and how they dealt with that. “

Here’s an article I found. http://tinyurl.com/y62khz

The part I found most interesting was: “Utility crews from 10 states and Canada worked to restore power amid a soaking rain. “

AVanarts – at 20:08 “Utility crews from 10 states and Canada “

that will never happen in a pandemic. when the lines are down they will stay down for a long time.

yeah, that’s exactly what I was thinking.

Fiddlerdave – at 18:36 “A “black pill” or spare bullets to avoid surviving for the amusement and service of some of these latter groups once you or your family are in their hands will be good to have.”

That is the DARKEST comment I have ever seen posted here on the Wiki!!! Definitely NOT a part of this survivors preparations or plans!

LEG – at 18:38 “And remind me again please, what CFR (or even infection rate) are you projecting the grid will fall at?”

I think the grid is hanging by a well worn thread on a good day as noted above by JJFlash and others on many previous threads.

I’ve been in deep discussion with my father and several of his (retired) former coworkers who worked for various utilities in the 60s and 70s, then made their weay to public service.

I’m ready to thwack them upside the head with my rice and beans preps, but I have to stay calm. Until two days ago they had ever even heard of pandemic influenza and thought that the “bird flu” hype was all over. They now know differnetly.

Still, their overwhelming decision is, in their experience, utilities manage for weeks during strikes, when they may be staffed at only 40%, so the power companies will do just fine during a pandemic with only 60% of their workforce. SUre, they won’t be able to add new customers, but they’ll be able to keep the grid up.

Even I can see how this is wrong in so many ways; and they do see that storms and such will be a problem, but they aren’t getting the concept of “simultaneous” yet.

Anyhow — my question to you is: in the past 5 years, have there been any significant power company strikes for more than a few weeks? What would happen if say, 40% of PEPCO went out on strike? Would they be able to maintain functioning?

JJF at 19:03-Who knows how bad the “refugee to nowhere” problem will be? But at the risk of sounding Darwinian I hope any Grid-Busting panflu hits in the middle of a blizzard. The people who haven’t prepared are doomed at some point anyway, (within 3 to 4 weeks). It might as well be sooner rather than later. And freezing to death is more merciful than being tossed into a blender of chaotic mayhem. And there is no justice in having the unprepared taking down those of us who have prepared.

And it isn’t like we haven’t beat ourselves against the wall of obstinate human nature (denial, delay, ignorance, etc.).

But more than likely “justice” will be no part of the process. However much we have prepared we will have one more major gauntlet to run.

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:48 “they won’t be able to add new customers”

That should be a warning for those that have a cabin out in the woods. Get the power/utilities turned on now so that you will have it later since the utility companies many not be able to turn it on later.

Medical Maven – at 20:52: Should it hit this winter, that just might be the construct.

C o t W – at 02:33

That’s great. Let us know how that plays out.

LMWatBullRun – at 17:24

However, have you considered the effect on those cities not yet burning of watching New York burning on CNN, and the resulting looting and rioting?

Whoa, not where I live. I don’t expect that much of the meltdown in NYC to be televised, but if it is, most people here would be very sad and scared. The people I know wouldn’t suddenly start looting in response. More likely, they would work like the dickens to try to stop it happening here. There are some who would try to take advantage of less law enforcement, but I suspect some concerned citizens would deal with that sort of thing pretty quickly.

My guess is that within a day of seeing major cities collapse there will be chaos in almost every city over 50,000 east of the Rocky Mountains and west of the Cascade range, and in EVERY city over 500,000 regardless of location.

I don’t agree. I think it depends on the city. If a medium-size city is surrounded by farm land and has ready access to fresh water and has done extensive prepping, I think it could survive quite nicely. OTOH, a small city surrounded by dessert with no access to fresh water except out of a long pipe would be in serious trouble. On the news thread yesterday, I posted a story out of Arkansas. The national guard there will be used strictly in the bigger cities, the rural areas will be on their own. Medium-size cities which are considered valuable may get significant state and federal resources. Apparently Denver is the back-up city in case DC goes down. I expect that means they are going to get alot of resources. That will help.

Fiddlerdave – at 18:36

A “black pill” or spare bullets to avoid surviving for the amusement and service of some of these latter groups once you or your family are in their hands will be good to have.

Yikes! If anyone thinks they may need a “black pill” because their city is going to meltdown, may I suggest that you seriously consider moving?

Monotreme at 21:10

“”“Apparently Denver is the back-up city in case DC goes down.”“”

Any chance you can elaborate on that????

Well, Monotreme, I have a really bad feeling that soon we’ll see who was right. I hope you are.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 19:03

When Katrina hit New Orleans there were refugees overwhelming shelters in cities within about a 500 mile radius.

But people were warned ahead of time and advised to leave. That won’t happen in a pandemic. Many state panflu plans have made it very clear that they will restrict travel. Blocking of highways is pretty easy in many places.

Most vehicles can make it 300 - 400 miles on a tank of gas.

True, but it won’t take much for gridlock to occur. People will just sit in their cars while their gas runs out. And there won’t be anymore.

Everyone from everywhere will be converging on everthing, including the best prepped regions, IMO.

I don’t agree. I’m guessing you live in the Northeast or California where the population density is kinda high. In those areas you’re right about everyone converging everywhere. But try driving one of the East-West highways sometimes. You’ll be surprised once you get out of the populated zones how far you can drive without going anywhere near a major city.

N.O. was one city. If all cities greater than 100,000 have people fleeing, I don’t know where they will flee to. But many will end up near where you or I live, (unless you live in timbuck2) and they will be hungry, thirsty, and cold. So will their kids.

Also of note. Last week a freak snow storm battered Western New York. Several ares were without water as well as power, due to power failures.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:17

Check out Bird Guano – at 14:20 on the City Triage thread. Note, I have no personal knowledge of this, I’m just taking him at his word. I’ll ask him for a link.

The last two paragraphs from my post at 21:36 were actually from Jumping Jack Flash’s post which I was responding to. Sorry for the confusion.

“Mari – at 18:50 Fiddlerdave – at 00:13 - Maybe the feds will decide a prudent action is to nationalize all the power generation and distribution facilities, at least for the duration of a pandemic. “ This idea is good, but the timing is poor. What good is taking over a rotted infrastructure when there is no gas, money, people or time to repair it? The time to nationlize is now, or set standards, or any of the numerous possibly effective plans that would at least get the process started. Whether it is panflu, the resultant enemy reactions to enforcing nuclear arms bans, wide scale natural disaster or lack of oil, America is walking (or strutting, depending on your political view) obliviously around on rotten infrastructure that we as a country ABSOLUTELY DEPEND ON WORKING PERFECTLY for basic survival of our large population centers and our industry/infrastructure in general. If you have power, all the other repair/support processes can start and continue. Without power, everything falls apart. Very, very fast.

Does anyone know anthing about InfraGard?

Based on their mission statement, it seems like keeping the grid up during a pandemic should be one of their priorities.

Infrastructure group to discuss flu, computer threats

monotreme. Most or at least many small cities, villages, towns are sited near major transportation routes. There are sure to be instances of truck drivers enroute from Philly to LA stopping for a bite in timbuckto Kansas for a bite to eat slobbering H5N1 all over the place.

Any city or town, IMHO, that did not do what Gunnison, CO did, is hosed. IMHO. I hope I’m wrong and you are right.

Suggest you read the website info on Infragard and contact the nearest FBI Field Office where there is at least one agent or more involved with the program.. Do not know to what, if any extent the Pandemic possibility has been factored into their plans as have been retired a few years now. Anonymous for this.

Monotreme – at 22:13

“Does anyone know anthing about InfraGard?

Based on their mission statement, it seems like keeping the grid up during a pandemic should be one of their priorities.”

Rest assured, keeping the grid up is a major concern, among other critical infrastructure matters. Just check with your local special agent.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 22:15

I don’t think it will be possible to keep the virus out of most cities in the US. But… I think it will be possible that some cities that have prepared won’t be overrun by people who haven’t. The goal cannot be to eliminate all infections in medium-size cities, the goal is to keep the infrastructure functioning.

And…Aspen, Co. does plan to do exactly what Gunnison, Co did. I suspect a number of other small, remote cities will as well.

I know this is hard for people in some regions to believe, but some areas of the country really are prepping quite seriously and openly discussing this at meetings at many different levels. In other areas of the country, like NYC, very senior people are telling their employees not to bother planning, it’s not going to happen. This dichotomy is one of the strangest things about the pre-pandemic period.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 22:15 “Most or at least many small cities, villages, towns are sited near major transportation routes. There are sure to be instances of truck drivers enroute from Philly to LA stopping for a bite in timbuckto Kansas for a bite to eat slobbering H5N1 all over the place.”

I think you’re right. I’m glad I’ll be out in the middle of nowhere, far away from any small cities, villages or town. And no one is coming onto that property after lockdown.

Monotreme – at 22:53

“I know this is hard for people in some regions to believe, but some areas of the country really are prepping quite seriously and openly discussing this at meetings at many different levels.”

Yes, I can vouch for that.

Informing fellow staff, in my role as PF coordinator was interesting. I tried the balanced info, WHO data, what it all means approach, with powerpoint, so it all looked well thought out. One guy said, quote, you’re just trying to avoid anarchy, end quote. I said, true. For everybody. Not a lot of interest from some, as usual. I have to get a bit nasty with some managers to get cooperation in sending people along.

My post vanished. Monotreme and Ducky. Please list serious prepping. I’m not into written plans or the occasional newspaper article. That could be seious CYA typing. But if the money is allocated and actively in use, I’d buy it. Is serious prepping tangible? Like increased food stamps for prepping? A valley filled with coal? Thousands of cases of MRE’s stored for the good citizens? What’s serious prepping?

Biogas for apartments? Could this be used for communities? I mean, if one of the elements needed is local energy, then this might help.

Suggestion: we want the grid, sure. But maybe we’d also want to look at “what the energy is for”, and protect that?

I don’t know if biogas can be used with normal appliances. :-?

I have a question. I live near two hydroelectric dams. The power generated from these dams goes somewhere else through big transmission lines. Is it possible for the local electric co-op to keep the power from those dams local? The co- ops dont own the dams either.

Average Concerned Mom at 20:48

Your dad is correct. Power companies can keep their generators plugging along just fine with minimal workers. They can also utilize managers and retirees. Distribution end may be a problem with storms knocking down trees and so on. Individuals may lose power but you should not worry that the “grid is going down”.

If power companies had any belief that they could not handle the situation, they would be saying so publicly, now, to give cities time to prepare. That they are not speaking is a clear sign that they feel capable of operating during a pandemic. These doomsday scenarios of the hordes fleeing the cities are interesting reading, but that is all.

Sceptic at 9:02-Your name is not familiar. If you have not been lurking long, you have not seen the many months of back-and-forth arguments on the possibilities of the Grid going down for a very long time. Many on this site were “sceptics” like you at first, but overwhelming logic and the past history and present state of the Grid persuaded them otherwise.

The “unthinkable” is just that until you dissect it and print it out in your “logic circuits”.

Average Concerned Mom at 20:48

“These doomsday scenarios of the hordes fleeing the cities are interesting reading…”

I agree ACM, I sometimes get the impression that people have been watching too many “Solient Green” type movies.

Having said that, I would not be one that takes the position that company silence is confirmation that executives are not concerned with critical infrastructure services during a pandemic event. No one can predict with certainty if and when an electric grid will fail, or a pipeline or a telephone trunk line or switching unit. Things fail for all sorts of reasons during “normal” times, and can be expected to encounter operational issues from time to time during a pandemic as well. What concerns all companies and public works departments, including those that must ensure that critical infrastructure services remain intact, is how to fulfill their corporate and community responsibilities with only half a workforce.

So, I do not think it is unreasonable for American citizens to assume for pandemic personal preparation purposes, that some service degradation during an event is not only possible, but likely. That would include such “essential” services as electricity, water, sewer, telephone, natural gas, cable and internet and gasoline. Prudent preparation doesn’t require having a doomsday attitude, but I think it does require some recognition that things will not be business as usual.

Perhaps a good way to assess what these companies are “thinking” (since no one is making public speaches on the matter from industry) is to get a copy of their pandemic plans or employee education material. If companies are urging their own personnel to make certain preparations for possible infrastructure outages, then that would be a clear signal that cities served by them should be doing likewise.

Sceptic and Mamabird,

I would like to believe you’re right, but could you indicate what your assumptions are regarding the pandemic? I think we would all agree that a pandemic with 30% attack rate and a .2% case fatality rate (CFR) could be handled by the power companies, and no-one would flee the cities.

However, the current CFR for H5N1 is over 50%. A number of the most prominent scientists who study this issue have stated that it is possible that H5N1 may go pandemic with it’s current CFR. Do you think that if an easily transmissible virus that kills over 50% of the people it infects is unleashed that the Grid will stay up? Would you go to work under those circumstances? If there is no electricity, there will be no water coming out our taps, right? People will die without water within a few days. Don’t you think they will go looking for some? With a virus with a 50% kill rate, I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that truckers will not work, grocery store stockers will not work and food will cease to be available in unprepared cities in a very short period of time. Do you disagree? There are 8 million people in New York City. I suggest that if they don’t have water or food, they will leave the city and look for some. Do you disagree?

We all hope that H5N1 will trade CFR for transmissibility, although we have no reason to think it will. Still, even if it does, is it prudent to plan only for the best possible scenario, a virus with a .2% CFR? I’m not sure how bad the CFR would have to be before the Grid failed. Some here have suggested 5%. I would be interested in both of your estimates, assuming you think it is possible for the Grid to fail.

I think it is possible to keep regional grids up in some areas with extensive planning. This would include buying respirators for all workers and getting them fit-tested, now. There is no evidence that I am aware of that this is happening. Please read this Opinion by Jumpin Jack Flash for his experience.

btw, “Soylent Green” is one of my favorite movies. However it doesn’t really pertain to this discussion. “Omega Man”, also with Charleton Heston, would be my pick.

Monotreme – at 21:59

“…but could you indicate what your assumptions are regarding the pandemic?”

OK MonoT, since you’re really pushing me for an answer. Now don’t fall over laughing. Remember, everyone is allowed an opinion.

I’m betting on the next pandemic to be H9N2 with a CFR of 50%, plus, and an almost non-existant death rate. Lots of absenteeism, school closures and people freaking out, with a bunch of utility folks doing everything possible to keep the grid up.

Following that pandemic by several years comes H5N1, and it will be a total disaster, simply because we didn’t learn from the first.

Wow!! Mamabird…several years is kind of general. If you have intuitively come up with H9N2, could you be a little more specific about that “several years” Thanks.

Mamabird – at 22:39

Hey, everyone is entitled to an opinion on FluWiki :-)

And I think it’s entirely possible that we could be surprised by another flu virus we haven’t been paying attention to. However, I’m not sure I understand how you are using “CFR”. CFR means case fatality rate which of course refers to the percent ill that die. But you seem to be expecting a virus that has a very low fatality rate.

Can I ask why you think a pandemic with a low death rate is the most likely possibility?

Here is why I think A Severe Pandemic is Likely. Let me know if you see any errors in my facts or in my logic.

Thanks

I am wondering what the odds are that people likely to do the marauding and mayhem might be the first cohort to come down with flu? Would it be likely that they might be incapacitated and unable to survive while the rest of us quietly shelter in place?

From some of my reading, I somehow remember that sick and starving people are not likely to riot. It is the people that are in the first stages of reduced rations most likely to cause ‘trouble’ to the authorities; the starving have no energy. Would it be likely that no rough stuff will occur because the flu could be deadly within less than 5 days of contact before people have a chance to get hungry and make plans to riot?

Monotreme Could you and the others comment on the Brookings institute thread…it relates to infrastructure and economies of scale…so to speak.

Mamabird – at 22:39

“I’m not sure I understand how you are using “CFR”.

Sorry folks, meant to type CIR (clinical infection rate) of 50%, with a very low fatality rate. And the reason for H9N2 is that this strain of avian influenza has taken on more human characteristics than H5N1 and has been circulating in the Chinese population for quite a while. A significant number of Asian citizens have H9N2 antigens. Fortunately the disease has mild symptoms.

So, if you genetically analyze H7N7, H7N3, H9N2 and H5N1 (all avian viruses that have been known to infect humans), H9N2 has come further along the transitory path to becoming a pandemic problem. In terms of rough percentages, it is say 50% closer to the 1918 H1N1 characteristics than H5N2. So, first H9N2, then give H5N1 some additional time to transit from an avian form toward human, and another pandemic close on the heals of the last.

Further, I would agree that an H5N1 pandemic will be far more severe than anything yet recorded. I see evidence that as avian influenza’s take on human characteristics they become less pathogenic, however that takes time, perhaps years. Therefore, its that initial transition period in which the avian virus is capable of effecient H2H that is the problem. When H5N1 takes off, I fully believe it will be a killer. The trick is to delay that event as long as possible through effective control of domestic fowl and other animals so that we give it less chances to infect mammals, especially humans.

But please don’t get me wrong, I think the first “mild” pandemic of H9N2 has the potential to cause serious social and economic disruptions due to public over reaction. Since we all have been expecting the worse, we will think it has hit when people start getting sick with the flu, when in reality, its CFR could be very low (H9N2). But it may not matter, the affect on the grid and other critical infrastructure services is in jeopardy if people don’t show up for work for whatever reason.

Mamabird, this may seem obvious to some, but I have not been hearing nearly anything about H9N2, compared to all the volume of reporting about H5N1. Is this because H9N2 is not as lethal, so it is “just” flu?

Fiddler Dave - haven’t been on much in a while much, sorry. Anyway, my analysis is simply a summary of articles I have read in the WSJ, Businesweek, NY Times, etc. all stating the same things - power companies have not invested in infrastructure and their hands have been tied by state regulators to hold down prices. Granted, some power companies have reaped enormous profits and the benefit of their shareholders. But that’s another problem - making power companies public companies means they will be more likely to try and keep profits, and thus share pries, propped up by not spending money on costly infrasturcture investment. It is very difficult to be a publicly traded company and not be influenced by the short-term focus of Wall Street. California was an extreme case in a situation that would make a good movie (in fact they did - Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room.” Great documentary if anyone ever gets a chance to see it I highly recommend it). Ask anyone working in and around the sytem and they’ll all say the same thing - the system is falling apart and is totally inadequate for today’s and tomorrow’s needs.

LEG – at 03:12

“…I have not been hearing nearly anything about H9N2…”

Well LEG, H9 viruses don’t sell newspapers. You are right on point with the reason. H9s are not High Path like H7s and H5 subtypes, so there is no death and destruction of domestic flocks or humans. In other words, just not much to report.

However, there is some research on these viruses that has been done over the last ten years. Easy to get to, just Google H9N2. You will note that there have been a couple of human outbreaks of this virus in Hong Kong, mainly because that it circulates widely in their live bird markets. But the infections only cause mild flu-like symptoms, mainly respiratory distress in humans. Please note that almost any of those research papers that you may read will contain some type of a warning like: “This virus has pandemic potential”. The reason is that there already appears to be evidence of H2H transmission.

Now, to keep on point with the theme of this thread, my concern is that because we are so focused on the potential death and destruction of H5N1 for a variety of very good reasons, smart planners of critical infrstructure entities need to also be aware of what I call the possibility of a “False Alarm” scenario. Something like an H9N2 goes pandemic, thousands of people are getting sick one day, and the hundreds of thousands the next, and everyone just freaks out thinking now is the time, this is it, the proverbial S has HTF.

Public officials, being ever watchful toward the protection and care of their citizens begin closing public places like theaters, malls, etc., and then at the drop of a hat schools and day care closes in order to protect the children and stop the spread of disease. Those announcements are followed by a lot of flight and SIP, resulting in massive loss of workforce.

Now, while I certainly do not share LauraB’s opinion that anyone working in and around the grid thinks that the system is falling apart, I do believe that utilities have a legitimate concern with operation, reliability and outage response when only half thier personnel are at work over a two month period. So if our collective responses to H9 is the same as H5N1, then the affect on the workforce is the same, even though one may be a pandemic flu and the other a pandemic killer.

If MSM is not writting articles about these issues, then we should share them here at FluWiki, because as planners we should tailor our response to the nature of the threat. Pulling the trigger on all of our available response options at the first sign of pandemic trouble may cause a lot of what we have been trying to avoid with our planning work. I would hope that we understand the threat and act accordingly. H5N1 is not going away, it will be here soon enough. So don’t worry, all those excellent preps will not go for naught.

I recently attended a local Pandemic meeting at local Indian River Community college— Was pleasantly surprised to hear from Florida Power & Light(major utility)- Was impressed to hear of their Pandemic plans and believe that Florida should fare reasonably well compared to other areas.

(And there’s XDR TB, too, waiting in the wings, right? But, H5N1 owns a lot of real estate this year.)

Sceptic: “If power companies had any belief that they could not handle the situation, they would be saying so publicly, now, to give cities time to prepare. That they are not speaking is a clear sign that they feel capable of operating during a pandemic”…

No, I don’t care to bet lives on that being the reason!

That’s not why the all the state politicians and local departments wasted the past 12 months they could have been educating the public; made sure the public knows they won’t have a vaccine, and, that medical care will be overwhelmed if this breaks out next month, so they had motivation, information, and, time to prepare.

Why they are not speaking has been said to my face a couple of times, as, They couldn’t keep more than 2 weeks of food on hand if we told them, and if we tell them, they will panic ( - not as many this year say, “Oh, that’s not even going to happen, so, no need to tell the public.”)

Too many authorities and politicians still say, “Well, I know people are meeting and planning about it, like they do for all other hazards and terrorist threats, and I just do what they tell me. It isn’t going to happen for a long time, because the death rate is still so high and it would drop; we saw the CDC numbers last year.” They are more afraid of causing “panic” (Maybe that’s code for “people being vocally angry at them/government”? “stock market going down”?)

So afraid of “False Alarm” and sure the public wouldn’t listen next time that some have decided not to tell the public until pandemic starts, and then, try and tell them how to react. (Tom DVM recent comment about recipe for anarchy comes to mind -basically; unprepared parents finding out their kids are sick and there’s no hope for them.) Planners seem to be afraid to say to the public, this is too big for us; you need to be in the know so you might not become part of the problem.

Some people with children might SIP, but some others may come out of the woodwork and step up to take their places. There’s still time to cross-train.

The public doesn’t even know yet it may be a life-or-death consideration for them to curtail all but essential electricity use if told to, but sending workers home to work and keeping kids home from school might save skills and lives needed for future recovery. If their power goes out, they’re used to enough people being available to get it back up, or, the public thinks help from feds, state, and unaffected communities will be there for them. We got notice 12 months ago there’s no way it can be.

Mamabird:

The possibility of a flase alarm is of course troubling. But with something that has a mild CFR I can’t see the false alarm going on for more than say two weeks.

It is a large number of deaths that would get the attention of the general public. As a concerned citizen, of course I’d be alarmed at a sudden increase in flu cases, but if there were no rise in fatality or the cases weren’t particularly severe, wouldn’t it be pretty obvious after about 2 weeks?

“Mamabird – at 22:39 Monotreme – at 21:59

“…but could you indicate what your assumptions are regarding the pandemic?”

OK MonoT, since you’re really pushing me for an answer. Now don’t fall over laughing. Remember, everyone is allowed an opinion.

I’m betting on the next pandemic to be H9N2 with a CFR of 50%, plus, and an almost non-existant death rate. Lots of absenteeism, school closures and people freaking out, with a bunch of utility folks doing everything possible to keep the grid up.

Following that pandemic by several years comes H5N1, and it will be a total disaster, simply because we didn’t learn from the first. “

It looks like this could use its own thread. How about H9N2 hits, panics people, then leaves them saying something like “that bird flu sure was overblown.” Then as people are still recovering from the “mild” H9N2 infections, H5N1 hits and people start dropping like flies.

Mamabird are you saying that an over-reaction to a H9N2 hit could cause the infrastructure collapse we fear even though a high infection rate of the H9N2 would not be accompanied by a high death ratio?

On Denver as the alternate seat.

The directive is contained in Federal Preparedness Circular 65, issued prior to Y2K.

Google will provide you with hours of reading.

Here is a snippet:

Eight COOP Planning Topics Defined by FPC 65 and Examples of Actions:

FPC 65 planning topic: Essential functions should be identified to provide the basis for COOP planning; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): The agency should prioritize its essential functions.

FPC 65 planning topic: Plans and procedures should be developed and documented to provide for continued performance of essential functions; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): These plans should include a roster of personnel who can perform the essential functions.

FPC 65 planning topic: Orders of succession should identify alternates to fill key positions in an emergency; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): Succession lists should be developed for the agency head and other key positions.

FPC 65 planning topic: Delegations of authority should identify the legal basis for officials to make decisions in emergencies; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): Delegations should include the circumstances under which the authorities begin and end.

‘’‘FPC 65 planning topic: Alternate facilities should be able to support operations in a threat-free environment for up to 30 days; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): These facilities should provide sufficient space and equipment to sustain the relocating organization’‘’

FPC 65 planning topic: Interoperable communications should provide voice and data communications with others inside and outside the organization; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): The agency should be able to communicate with agency personnel, other agencies, critical customers, and the public.

FPC 65 planning topic: Vital records should be identified and made readily available in an emergency; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): Electronic and paper records should be identified and protected.

FPC 65 planning topic: Tests, training, and exercises should occur regularly to demonstrate and improve agencies’ COOP capabilities; Example of action (element of viable COOP plan): Individual and team training should be conducted annually.

Here’s a starter link from an Office of Management and Budget review of the program.

http://www.gao.gov/htext/d04638t.html

Most of the public, even if they have heard of the bird flu, have no idea what the CFR could be. Most have never heard of the 1918–1919 pandemic, and if they have, they probably have no idea how bad it was. So when the pandemic starts, if the CFR is low enough, there won’t be mass panic. People will continue to go to work, etc. at least for some period of time. If the CFR is high enough, the majority of people will stop going to work fairly immediately and there will be mass panic. So when we talk about case attack rate and case infection rate, what we are really talking about, in this context is worker absentism for whatever reason. Illness, themselves and/or loved ones, fear, transportation or child care issues, whatever the reason is that they aren’t at work.

There is a supply chain for keeping the power plants operational. If there are enough workers missing from their jobs, a breakdown at any point on that supply chain Will likely occur. A breakdown at any point along that supply chain will probably result in a failure of the Grid. For example, fuel is needed to convert energy into electricity. The fuel has to be transported to the power plant. There are multiple supply chains for that to occur. Any breakdown of those supply chains… and so on. In a nutshell, if the supply chain breaks down for a period that lasts longer than the supply of fuel for the power plants lasts, there is no way on God’s green earth that the Grid will stay up. And, as I’m sure we all realize, if the Grid goes down, it all goes down.

I would like to hope that in this scenario the Department of Defense is prepared to mobilize the military soon enough, in sufficient numbers and for a long enough period of time (which would be dependant on the CFR) to supply enough food and water in sufficient quantities fast enough to avert or at least minimize to some sufficient degree the mass panic and anarchy that would result in a critical mass of collateral damage in at least some cities. There would not be enough resources to accomplish this in all, or even most cities. The rural areas will be completely on their own. At some point the demand for resources would equalize with the supply of resources. The period of time for that to occur would probably depend largely dependant on how high the CFR is.

No matter how I look at it, even if the Department of Defense were able to properly plan and execute a plan for mobilization, I don’t see how there would be enough resources to be sufficiently successful in this endeavor if the CFR is high enough, to prevent a complete breakdown of law and order. How would you define high enough? 5%, 10%? I don’t know, but I’m sure scientists have run simulations and have a pretty good idea. This is an extremely complex issue.

If the Grid goes down, it all goes down.

Closed and continue here.

TJD-

You have independently arrived at the same conclusion many of us have regarding the grid; if it goes down, it all goes down.

I am not aware of whether there are any good detailed failure mode models for electrical power, but I doubt it. The question before us is whether or not there is anything that can be done, over the near term, to prevent a severe pandemic from knocking out the power system and causing massive colllateral damage.

My thinking is that the military will not be able to significantly affect the outcome over the near term, as electrical linesmen have to be trained, the grid infrastructure rebuilt, and the political drivers which have placed us in this situation changed. This takes not only trained people, which the military does not have, it also takes a LOT of material, which the military also does not have. In short, this is not a mission for an organization designed to kill people and break things.

This is a task which will likely take several years and billions of dollars to accomplish best case, and absent an actual pandemic there is no justification in the minds of TPTB for making any such change.

See Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy.

My overall assessment is that in the event of a severe pandemic the grid will go down and there will be severe collateral damage. I see no way to prevent this. It is possible that Monotreme is right and that certain regions will fare much better than others, but in my judgement there has been so much centralization of production in the name of maximizing efficiency and cutting costs, that there will be essential component manufacture located in some area that collapses, and that even those localities that avoid immediate collapse will collapse in the longer term.

for example, how many processes depend on microelectronics? How many microelectronic production facilities are located in the so-called A zones?