Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 19 October 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Oct-06 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 38 | 24 | 114 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 58 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 81 | 64 | 35 | 204 |
(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update)
Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
China
India
Pakistan
Israel
Switzerland
United States of America
General
Link to news thread for 19 October (link News Reports for October 19 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
(again I ask - it worked well yesterday) a reminder please – if you can do two things for me, creating the News Summary is so much quicker
Avian Flu and Weak Dollar Reduce Brazil Chicken Export by 24% Written by Newsroom Friday, 20 October 2006
Brazilian exports of chicken meat generated US$ 251.5 million in September, which represented a 24.15% reduction when compared to the same period last year. Shipment totaled 209,560 tons, a reduction of 17.83% in the same comparison. The figures were disclosed yesterday by the Brazilian Poultry Exporters Association (Abef).
According to the Abef, the sector faces unfavorable conditions in global trade due to the outbreaks of avian flu in Asia, Europe and Africa early this year. Apart from that, Brazilian poultry farming is also losing due to the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar.
<snip> The greatest market for Brazilian poultry was Asia, which imported 555,210 tons in the first nine months of the year. Exports to the region generated US$ 669 million. The second market was the Middle East, which bought 511,870 tons from January to September. Exports to the region generated US$ 543.94 million in the period. (more link http://tinyurl.com/yedkgx )
(from Bloomberg) Bird Flu Suspected in Nine More Indonesians on Sulawesi Island By Karima Anjani
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Tests for bird flu are being run on nine people from a province of Indonesia’s eastern island of Sulawesi, where one of the patients, a 1-year-old boy, probably died of the virus this week.
The child from the South Sulawesi district of Maros died Oct. 17, hours after he was admitted to the Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital in Makassar with flu-like symptoms, said Halif Saleh, a doctor who treated the infant. Samples from the boy are being tested for the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, Runizar Ruesin, head of the health ministry’s avian flu center, said in a phone interview today.
<snip> Tests for the H5N1 virus are being run on eight others being treated in the Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital. They are all from South Sulawesi province, where the disease is known to have infected poultry, Ruesin said. It wasn’t immediately known whether the patients are related, he said. (more at http://tinyurl.com/ycou2r )
(Nigeria) Bird flu: 700,000 birds culled since outbreak—WHO Posted to the Web: Friday, October 20, 2006
Enugu— Around 700,000 birds have been culled to date in Nigeria since the outbreak of Avian flu in February this year, according to a WHO official. Dr. Chijioke Osakwe, the National Professional Officer of the WHO, gave the figure yesterday in his presentation on “An overview of Avian influenza in Nigeria” at one-day workshop for the Nigerian Guild of Editors in Enugu. Osakwe said the birds were culled at the cost of N560 million.
He said the country’s poultry industry had 140 million birds, with “backyard” poultry farmers accounting for 60 per cent of the business. The industry contributed 9 per cent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product, he said, noting that the contribution was significant in the national economy. <snip> He described bird flu as a virus that did not require a passport to enter any country, calling for an effective campaign to educate the citizens on the need to take precautionary measures.
[More … http://tinyurl.com/ym8omj]
comment
It’s so obvious H5N1 is being transmitted H2H. Why else would they test a bunch of neighbors? Why not test their chickens? And a two-month old and a three-month old? (If I gleaned that right from the Indonesian thread.) Who’s gonna let a chicken peck at their baby? And the new family cluster, and the “zillion chickens died in their yard” reassurance that is offered up so ridiculously every time. It’s H2H, and those mo…. no, I can’t say it…but I’m starting to think the world would be better off if there were no WHO.
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia, the country with the highest number of bird flu deaths in the world, intends to bar city residents from keeping chickens and other poultry in their backyards, ministers said on Friday.
Indonesia has become a frontline in the battle against the virus that has killed 55 people in the sprawling country, where millions of chickens roam freely in urban residential areas.
<snip>
However, Indonesia’s chief welfare minister Abrizal Bakrie said there were no indications this would happen soon.
“There is no indication leading to a pandemic. There has been no mutation and the spread is still from poultry to humans,” he said after ministers met to discuss bird flu developments
Comment
My feel good post for today.
http://www.nih.go.jp/JJID/59/179.pdf
Not news as such but a great report on the usefulness of masks. It recommends that governements issue people with coughs paper masks - in schools, health care locations, commuters, aircraft etc. In other words, anybody with a cough during a pandemic.
It has some nice graphs showing droplet speed with and without masks (cotton, paper, polypropelene non wovwen fibre).
It states - We have shown that even the cheapest paper masks in this study can greatly diminish the airspeed from coughing. The cheaper the masks, the more widely they are used. Providing coughing patients in the general population with such masks costing only 5 yen (about 5 US cents) each at the earliest stage of the pandemic could prevent the worst case scenario.
From my own opinion, they also stop people touching their mouth without thinking or spitting.
Scaredy Cat – at 01:55 It’s H2H, and those mo…. no, I can’t say it…but I’m starting to think the world would be better off if there were no WHO.
Comment
Scaredy Cat, I understand your frustration completely, and while I am no devotee of WHO, I think we need to try to keep the burden of their responsibility in mind. When WHO pulls the trigger and ups the pandemic level, the world WILL change overnight. We hope in good ways, such as heightened preparedness. However, I think it’s an understatement to say that there will be severe social, political, and economic reverberations. I don’t agree with WHO’s “Don’t worry, be happy,” line of bull implied in its, “X had contact with sick chickens” boilerplate language. However, I have sympathy for the fact that WHO knows its actions will be altering the world condition. That said, it’s high time they declare level 4.
Scaredy Cat – at 01:55 - comment - It’s so obvious H5N1 is being transmitted H2H. Why else would they test a bunch of neighbors?
Maybe looking for asymptomatic or mild cases. Or looking for other concurrent flu (which would mean reassortment oportunities). Or “just testing”. That’s their job.
uk bird – at 07:06 I’ve linked to the “simple masks might be effective” from our wikipage. Thanks!
Bellevillenewsdemocrat.com Experts caution: Avian flu pandemic is still possible By Ashley Tusan Joyner News-Democrat 10/20/06
Avian flu has yet to spred in the United States as it has in other countries, namely Indonesia. But to thik we’re in the clear of a similar outbreak of infectious disease would be a misunderstanding. So far a person dies from the disease roughly about once every four days, compared with about once every nine days last year, according to a recent report on WHO data. Of the 108 confirmed human cases of avian flu thus far this year, 73 have been fatal-an increase from 97 cases and 42 deaths in all of last year. “The problem is there is absolutely no way to predict the curse of avian or bird fluenza.” said Col. Jerry Jaax, and expert on infectious disease who spoke at Southwestern Illinois College on Thursday. “THIS PARTICULAR STRAIN OF FLU WHICH MUTTES EXCEPTIONALLY ESILY-ALMOST CONSTANTLY POSSESES TWO OF THE THREE GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS THT WE WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT BRINGING ABOUT A PANDEMIC FLU.” ONE-It has been able to cause disease in humans.TWO-It has been able to travel from birds to humans. And there are even isolated incidents of human to human transmission, the third major trait of a seemingly pandemic-bound disease. Thursday night, students and facuality welcomed Jaax and his wife, Col. Nancy Jaax. Both are retired Army veterinaries and current academics at Kansas State University, are acknowledged experts in the medical defense against chemical and biological agents. They are best known for their successful containment of an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus among an ape colony in Reston, Va in1989. The case became the basis of international bestseller, “The Hot Zone,” by Richard Preston, and was later adapted for film in “Outbreak”. (excellant movie)
lugon – at 09:03
That’s interesting. I’m trying to figure out what that means.
Illegal immigrants with bird flu symptoms in Greece
Two immigrants had bird flu symptoms, registered in Southeast Asia. The results from the examinations should be announced by the end of Friday.
lugon -at 09:03
please interpet. or anybody who understands.
I think it is showing Google SEARCH trends for the words, H5N1 and pandemic. When news articles are released there is a direct correlation and increase in the amount of Google searches with the aforementioned words.
I suppose people could be looking up pandemic and dengue.
I’m personally puzzled by it. Maybe there were news about “pandemic caused by H5N1” a few months ago, which is “normal” if you ask me. What puzzles me is that in 2006 “H5N1” was used more often (in “news”, whatever that means for Google), while “pandemic” was not.
Snowhound1 - So what happens is that people’s interest has decreased? Hmm. It’ll be interesting to know for sure.
Thai cases under investigation
“There are 14 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.”
Milo – at 00:13 posted this in the October 19 news thread: The original report cited by Pixie at 19:36 on Indo thread XVI was to this report:
Thousands of citizens were in Malang attacked by pneumonia (excerpt of article followed)
Has anyone seen a follow-up regarding this report? It would be very significant if suddenly thousands of people were starting to contract pneumonia in a small geographic area.
I also think from looking at the charts that when the news being reported is from European or American news media, about cases in Europe, then it spikes. (Many more people have Internet in Europe and the Americas, tend to be better educated and follow the news better than in other areas of the world, and care about what is happening “in their neck of the woods.”) There really is not a lot of interest in what is occurring in Indonesia at this time (although there should be IMHO) and the only time I have seen anything about it in MSM in the US is when someone dies “officially” from “bird flu” and it is a small ticker at the bottom of the screen on the TV news channels.
When they discover H5N1 in birds, say in the US, or again in Europe, I would fully expect to see a huge spike in the Google search trends. Primarily, due to the fact that so many Americans and Europeans have access to a computer and the Internet. Right now, I really think the general worldwide consensus is, is it is no big deal, thus not a lot of searches. The threat they perceived some months ago, i.e. H5N1 in birds in Europe, fell off the screen when it was “cured” or “wiped out” in the urbanized centers of the world. Most couldn’t care less if it is killing Indos, Indians or Africans…Maybe I am being too cynical, but as they say, JMHO.
uk bird— I wonder how the immigrants got to Greece. If they indeed have bird flu, who else did they spread it to? I think we need to keep and eye on this. Could be one of these false alarms like in Austraila last week.
I agree Ruth..and thanks to uk bird for posting that. I think it is also important so I am including some of the article here.
Illegal immigrants with bird flu symptoms in Greece
Friday, 20 October 2006 http://tinyurl.com/ygdgzw
Four illegal immigrants from India with bird flu symptoms have been hospitalised in Greek Island of Syros, internet-edition of Ethnos reported.
Two immigrants had bird flu symptoms, registered in Southeast Asia. The results from the examinations should be announced by the end of Friday.
A Greek island is an odd place for Indian immigrants to turn up, it’s a long land trip and not a natural place to arrive at by boat (as an asylum seeker). They may be crew from a ship who have been dumped because they were ill. They may be workers from Africa (Egypt?) who have decided to gain access to europe by sea?
I don’t think there’s a need to worry yet and the article doesn’t state what symptoms suggest bird flu as opposed to any other illness?
Good table :http://tinyurl.com/sbuha Shocking tho…
Recombinomics Commentary October 20, 2006
“The above translation describes a suspect fatal H5N1 bird flu case in South Sulawesi. In addition, at least two family members are hospitalized and several contacts are being tested. The H5N1 situation in South Sulawesi remains unclear.
Last month a fatal confirmed case from Mekassar was announced. However, the patient had died in June. The WHO update indicated the delay in reporting the confirmation was because it was collected during routine testing. However, the WHO update failed to mention the deaths of two family members who also had bird flu symptoms. Thus, the failure to report, couple with the misleading characterization by WHO is cause for concern.
Between the earlier fatal cluster and the current suspected fatal cluster, a large number of suspect cases have been hospitalized in South Sulawesi. Although these cases have tested negative, patients have been treated with Tamiflu which may lower the level of circulating H5N1 to a level that is below detection. False negatives are common in H5N1 cases and frequently multiple tests are required to detect H5N1. A recent confirmed H5N1 fatality in Thailand was tested nine times over several weeks, yet H5N1 was only detected at autopsy.
The frequency of H5N1 infections in Indonesian remains unclear. The H5N1 in patients does not match the H5N1 in poultry. Since a link to dead or dying poultry is usually required fro H5N1 testing, the level of H5N1 infections in patients with bird flu symptoms, but without a bird link is largely unknown.
If these patients have been infected with H5N1, they will have antibodies that can be detected 3–4 weeks after disease onset. It remains unclear how many of any surviving patients with bird flu symptoms are tested for convalescent H5N1 antibodies.
Similarly, sequence data from H5N1 positive cats has not been released. The only cat H5N1 sequence released to date does match the human H5N1 sequences, which provides additional evidence for a mammalian reservoir. Similarly, analysis of recently released H5N1 sequences in China show that recombination is frequent, and regions of identity are found in Indonesian patients, providing evidence for the introduction of new polymorphisms in Indonesia via migratory birds. H5N1 sequences from wild birds in Indonesia are also lacking.
The latest suspect cluster in Indonesia again highlights the need for expanded surveillance and more timely reporting.
Recent media reports indicate that there will be testing of waterfowl in the Trisik area, Yogyakarta, and the Eretan Coast, Indramayu.Thus far the only reported bird H5N1 from Java with the novel cleave site was from Indramayu. Although it did not match the majority of human cases, it was close to a small subset of patients infected at the end of 2005. The only other bird isolates with the novel cleavage site were from central Sumatra.
Although the novel cleavage site has not been detected outside of Indonesia, many polymorphism from patients in Indonesia have been detected in H5N1 in China, strongly implicating these isolates in the evolution of H5N1 worldwide, including several polymorphism that were widely detected in Indonesian patients. Moreover, the origins of these H5N1 sequences in China could be found in low path isolates in Hong Kong in the late 1970’s indicating low path flu sequences are also closely involved in the evolution of H5N1, which is largely driven by recombination, which was readily detected in the H5N1 from poultry, waterfowl, and swine in China.”
Queensland telling people to prepare. Also, their premier has just won his Fourth election in a row, so I would say his opinion is well respected. Scaredy Cat: When do you think it would of gone Human to Human. If it had gone Human to Human surely we would see a lot more people being rushed to hospital. I’m saying, that when it goes Human to Human it will be unmistakable. On the other hand…this may be what a lowering of the CFR is all about.
http://tinyurl.com/y3neda Journal American Veterinary Medical Assoc., Nov 1, 2006
USDA expands plan for low-pathogenic avian influenza
The Department of Agriculture will be expanding the National Poultry Improvement Plan, a voluntary cooperative program to prevent the spread of diseases in commercial poultry operations. Under an interim rule, the USDA will provide 100 percent indemnity for specific costs of eradicating H5 and H7 low-pathogenic avian influenza by program participants. The USDA will offer only 25 percent indemnity for facilities that do not participate in the active surveillance portion of the program.
In previous H5 and H7 detections, states often handled indemnification, and provisions varied. International animal health standards now require countries to report all H5 and H7 detections. The program expansion will encourage testing and provide financial incentives to report detections.
The rule appeared in the Sept. 26 Federal Register, available at www.gpoaccess.gov/fr.
http://tinyurl.com/u9thb Canada, CBC, Helen Branswell, Oct.18
Bird flu vaccine may be more protective than thought; Swiss to stockpile - Current vaccines against the H5N1 avian influenza virus may protect against some future, genetically evolved strains of the virus, scientists reported Wednesday - additional fuel for the debate about whether to stockpile H5N1 vaccine or prime people’s immune systems before a pandemic.
Switzerland announced Wednesday it will stockpile enough H5N1 vaccine to give each of its citizens a first priming dose of vaccine quickly, should an H5N1 pandemic occur. The vaccine will be made in Canada by GlaxoSmithKline.
Experts warn Vietnam of winter bird flu threat from Thanh Niem News (Vietnam)
Vietnam and several other countries in the Asia-Pacific region were under threat from an avian influenza recurrence. Though the situation was under control on a global scale, a comprehensive plan was necessary for preventing the disease….warned that the deadly H5N1 strain thrived best in winter…
Comment: Yes, this is Nabarro who is praising the Asian bird flu efforts. Before everyone stops to say he has lost his mind, we need to realize that this is what he might be required to say in order to have a hope in hades of getting WHO teams into these countries.
UN Official Praises Asia’s Bird Flu Efforts
By Ron Corben for VOA / 20 October 2006 /http://tinyurl.com/uusjl
The top United Nations official handling avian flu says Asia has shown significant progress in preparing to fight the spread of the virus. But the official warns that more help is needed to support Indonesia, where a majority of the country’s provinces have reported the presence of the disease.
United Nations officials say Asia needs to increasingly focus on medium- to longer-term efforts to control the spread of avian flu virus.
David Nabarro, the senior U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza, says, overall, Asia has registered significant progress in the past year in preparing to stem the spread of avian flu.
Nabarro, and other U.N. officials, say Indonesia remains the key country of concern, and is in need of greater international assistance.
“Indonesia … there’s a lot more to do,” he said. “The challenge of improving animal health services, and also scaling up human health capacity, continues to be substantial in that country.” <snip>
Hiroyuki Konuma, deputy regional director for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), says the disease is firmly established in Indonesia.
“The virus is widely spreading at the moment, and, according to the source of information from the FAO, out of 33 provinces, the majority of provinces have avian influenza problems,” said Konuma.
Indonesia has been criticized for resisting mass culling of infected poultry. On Friday, officials there announced plans to ban city residents from keeping free-roaming backyard poultry, in a bid to prevent the virus spreading to people. But they did not say when the measure would come into effect. Indonesia also says it has been improving bird flu education and awareness programs.
The U.N.’s Nabarro warned Friday that a bird flu epidemic among humans could begin anywhere, not just in countries like Indonesia that showed higher concentrations of the virus.
Nabarro is on his fourth visit to the region to review bird flu preparedness. He praised Vietnam and Cambodia for their avian flu preparations, and singled out Burma, also known as Myanmar, for its open and cooperative approach on avian flu issues.
“There has been total openness in communicating with the officials of the U.N. system on issues to do with avian influenza, and we are very satisfied with the way in which the Myanmar authorities responded,” he said.
A key concern now for countries in the region is the approaching winter. The number of flu cases typically increases during the cold season, from November to February. <snip>
geeze, something needs to be done. If that is what he is doing, pixie, I say go for it. do anything to get those people in there.
I just heard on the ABC hourly radio newsbreak: They have enough seasonal flu vaccine this year but there is a shortage caused by distribution.
There is no better way to make people want to get their flu shot than to say there’s a shortage. Hmmmmm.
Oremus - at 14:09
No one has given a single, cogent, reason for the “delay in distribution” of the seasonal flu vaccine. It has already been manufactured, it is in the box, the shipping labels for orders placed last January are probably already afixed, and we enjoy the benefits of a robust shipping sector here in the U.S. (UPS, FedEx, U.S. Mail) that seems to have experienced no delays in shipping anything else lately.
If they wanted to create demand due to a perceived shortage, they could just come right out and say there is a shortage. But they have said that plenty of vaccine has been manufactured and is available…..except for this little unexplained shipping problem.
I smell “fowl play”
With reference the illegal immigrants in Greece and bird-flu symptoms - if they are from any of the areas of India currently experiencing the dengue/chik epidemic then surely that would be known and it would be reported that way?
UN praises Myanmar’s efforts against bird flu
21-Oct-2006 00:31 hrs / http://tinyurl.com/ykkbnl
The United Nations has praised Myanmar’s efforts against bird flu as “impressive” as the military-run country declared itself free from the deadly virus after reporting no human infections.
“Myanmar is impressive to us. The current level of vigilance is high,” David Nabarro, the UN’s senior coordinator on avian influenza, told a news conference here following a regional tour that included Myanmar.
Myanmar, which reported its first outbreak of bird flu in March, is among the countries often accused by international experts of lacking openness in its monitoring for the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.
But Nabarro said Myanmar has been very active in its efforts to contain bird flu, which has killed more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia.
Last month Myanmar declared itself free of bird flu after months without a new reported outbreak, and the military government has reported no humans infected with bird flu.
Pixie: Don’t you think Hong Kong did a good job by killing all their birds. I was more than impressed when I heard that. What would’ve happened if these measures weren’t taken?
Experts warn Vietnam of winter bird flu threat
http://tinyurl.com/ye3ynm / Friday, October 20, 2006 22:30:30 Vietnam
International medical experts gathered at a United Nations office in Thailand warned Vietnam might face a bird flu outbreak this winter at a meeting with the press Friday.
Vietnam and several other countries in the Asia-Pacific region were under threat from an avian influenza recurrence.
Though the situation was under control on a global scale, a comprehensive plan was necessary for preventing the disease, they warned.
Laurence J.Gleesen, Regional Manager of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s Emergency Center for Transboundary Disease Control, warned that the deadly H5N1 strain thrived best in winter.
She praised Vietnam for “excellently” checking the spread of the disease and keeping down human infections to the “lowest level” possible.
In 2003–2005, Vietnam reported 92 human infections of which 43 died. Since November 2005, the country has not reported any new human cases though the epidemic has returned in several places.atistics, 151 have died of bird flu worldwide, with Indonesia the worst sufferer with <snip>
Blue - at 15:12
Yes, Hong Kong killed anything with wings, I think, and it worked. They culled the waterfowl as well as the chickens. But Hong Kong is a small place. Indonesia is 2,000 miles wide. Hong Kong also relies on many outside food producers, and as a major world city can afford them. Indonesia was never in the position of being able to wipe out their primary food source for protein (most there do not eat pigs, and cows are very expensive).
Vietnam also was very diligent about culling flocks. Whenever an H5N1 bird was found, any flock within a mile (or maybe more) was culled. In Indonesia, they are lucky to get the affected farmer’s birds culled, and it seems like most of the neighbors resist.
Also, Hong Kong is a highly technological city. In Indonesia there was a story about H5N1 positive chickens being found in several neighboring farms, killing the small flocks owned by individual farmers. The authorities got to the area quickly, and wanted to test more birds, but their equipment broke and now they are left with only clinical observation to try to figure out what is going on. Comparing Hong Kong and Indonesia is like comparing an apple and a watermelon. I wish they had been able to effectively cull or vaccinate their livestock, but it just didn’t happen and now we have to deal with the aftereffects.
Yep. Hong Kong and Indonesia are vastly different. Vietnam obviously did something right.
Blue and Pixie. It could be possible that some of the difference between Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Thailand vs. Indonesia is also due to a difference in genetic composition of the virus.
Or more likely the ability of the authorites in power being able to enforce their will. The Indonesians seem very stubborn and willfull. Hong Kong is under Chinese control.
comments
Edna Mode – at 08:10
I do have sympathy for the “burden of [the WHO’s] responsibility,” but it is far outweighed by the sympathy I have for the people of the world who stand to be caught tragically unprepared for a pandemic thanks in large part to the WHO’s putting economic interests above people’s lives.
lugon – at 08:28
While the reasons Lugon suggests are possible, since we have no reason to deem the WHO completely trustworthy, we ought to place the most weight on the explanation that seem the most likely, especially given the WHO’s past behavior. Maybe I’m wrong, but I am under the impression that the WHO has not gone around “just testing.” I don’t think they’ve been routinely testing asymptomatic people. I don’t think they’ve even been testing other mammals dying in surrounding areas.
As far as looking for mild or asymptomatic cases in neighbors, if they are doing that, then all the more reason to think they suspect H2H transmission. If, as they’ve said, infections from birds are very rare, then the likelihood of two neighbors coming down with H5N1 from birds must be extremely remote.
Blue – at 13:21
Scaredy Cat: When do you think it would of gone Human to Human. If it had gone Human to Human surely we would see a lot more people being rushed to hospital. I’m saying, that when it goes Human to Human it will be unmistakable.
I don’t know when H5N1 would’ve gone human to human (in a sustained manner). Perhaps after the Karo cluster? The sole survivor did flee the hospital at one point, potentially infecting untold numbers of people. With H2H we wouldn’t necessarily be seeing “a lot more people being rushed to the hospital.” Depends on the RO (hope I’m saying that right) factor. When it goes H2H in a sustained and efficient manner then it probably will be unmistakable (although I think TPTB will try to keep it “mistakable” for as long as they possible can.
Perhaps I am mistaken, but I have gotten the impression over the months that many of the victims families have not been co=operative. Disapear, leave the hospital etc. While many are co-operating, a certain percentage aren’t.
If any PTB were to try and hold any secrets regarding possible H2H transmission of a ossible pandemic virus, I think they would be severely shunned by the world society if they ever found out.
Blue – at 16:44
you mean like China and SARS
DoD makes headway on flu pandemic measures, GAO says
The Defense Department is making progress on a plan of action should a massive flu epidemic break out in the U.S., but still has more to do, says a report by the Government Accountability Office.
The Bush administration set the wheels in motion in September 2004 when it asked relevant federal agencies to devise a “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” and then figure out how to implement it.
Under the national plan, the Defense Department would be responsible not only for taking care of its employees — civilian and uniformed — but also helping maintain order and even aiding other countries. […snip…] But the GAO also pointed out that much of that guidance needs to be followed, and soon.
The Pentagon faces four major challenges in influenza preparedness, the report says:
• Funding needs to be allocated for preparedness efforts.
• An immunization and antiviral distribution plan for Defense Department personnel must be established.
• An inter-department communications plan need to be drawn up for use in the event of an outbreak.
• Clear lines of authority and oversight need to be set for the preparedness process.
“Experts warn that it is only a matter of time until the world experiences the next flu pandemic,” said Rep. Tom Davis,, R-Va., chairman of the House Government Reform Committee and one of the lawmakers who asked the GAO to check up on the Pentagon’s flu preparedness progress.
“Because a pandemic could occur at any time, it is critical that we be prepared,” Davis said. “We need to be able to treat the sick, prevent the spread of the disease, and keep the country, including critical government agencies such as DoD, functioning.”
Nigeria: Bird Flu - Poultry Farms Lose Over 222,000 Birds
Kano state government has so far distributed the sum of N37m to the first and second batch of the Avian Influenza affected poultry farmers in the state, the state commissioner of Agriculture, Alhaji Muhammad Adamu Bello has revealed.
The commissioner who was speaking at a one-day workshop on recognition, prevention and control of Avian Influenza in Kano, said that a total of 222,101 birds were killed in about 82 farms in the state during the outbreak.
[…snip]
Health minister warms up to pandemic action
OTTAWA - Canada must take immediate action on global warming to cope with the threat of new infectious diseases from abroad, Health Minister Tony Clement said Thursday.
In an interview with CanWest News Service, Clement noted that diseases such as the West Nile virus are spreading and surviving because Canada’s climate is getting hotter.
There is an increasing threat of other infectious diseases, he said. ‘’Dengue fever is another one that epidemiologists are worried about right now, coming to our shores.
With climate change, with warmer weather, those might have an impact on Canadians’ health, Clement said in a rare reference by a Tory minister to the dangers of global warming.
Although Prime Minister Stephen Harper has questioned global warming warnings from leading scientists, Clement said the federal public health agency is spending more money on surveillance and prevention of various diseases that could now be spreading in Canada.
He added that his department’s pandemic plan will also be renewed shortly to address the risks of avian influenza and other diseases that would not normally be a threat in Canada’s climate.
[…snip]
Characterization of an influenza A H5N2 reassortant as a candidate for live-attenuated and inactivated vaccines against highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential.
Department of Virology, Institute of Experimental Medicine, RAMS, St. Petersburg, Russia.
We generated a high-growth 7:1 reassortant (Len17/H5) that contained the hemagglutinin (HA) gene from non-pathogenic A/Duck/Potsdam/1402–6/86 (H5N2) virus and other genes from the cold-adapted (ca) attenuated A/Leningrad/134/17/57 (H2H2) strain. Len17/H5 demonstrated an attenuated phenotype in mice and did not infect chickens. Mice administered Len17/H5 either as a live-attenuated intranasal vaccine or as an inactivated intramuscular vaccine were substantially protected from lethal challenge with highly pathogenic A/Hong Kong/483/97 (H5N1) virus and were protected from pulmonary infection with antigenically distinct A/Hong Kong/213/2003 (H5N1) virus. The cross-protective effect correlated with the levels of virus-specific mucosal IgA and/or serum IgG antibodies. Our results suggest a new strategy of using classical genetic reassortment between a high-growth ca H2N2 strain and antigenically related non-pathogenic avian viruses to prepare live-attenuated and inactivated vaccines for influenza pandemic.
Please explain…
Sorry, the link to Pubmed from the above is
Toclarify…
[Our results suggest a new strategy of using classical genetic reassortment between a high-growth ca H2N2 strain and antigenically related non-pathogenic avian viruses to prepare live-attenuated and inactivated vaccines for influenza pandemic.]
New Strategy or Franken virii??
anonymous – at 13:31
“Bird flu vaccine may be more protective than thought; Swiss to stockpile - Current vaccines against the H5N1 avian influenza virus may protect against some future, genetically evolved strains of the virus, scientists reported Wednesday -“
If anyone knows more about this could you post the info? Is this wishful thinking or based on some kind of knowledge/testing that I haven’t seen?
I haven’t been reading about H5N1 for about three months or (been busy elsewhere); just getting back into it. Maybe I’ve missed some important news about vaccines?
Vietnam
Vietnam prepares for possible H5N1 pandemic
VietNamNet Bridge - The Ministry of Public Health on Oct. 19 held an exercise as part of the country’s efforts to ensure logistics for a potential human avian influenza outbreak.
The exercise was designed for ministries, branches, and international and national organisations to share information and experiences to promptly deal with a large-scale pandemic.
According to Deputy Minister of Public Health Trinh Quan Huan, experiences learnt from the country’s recent struggles against SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and human influenza type-A (H5N1) epidemics showed that logistics played an important role.
Iowa, USA
Q-C prepares for influenza pandemic
Personal responsibility for health and readiness, coupled with proper planning by community organizations will help stem the spread of the disease, Katz said. But, if the pandemic is as bad as the 1918 flu that killed millions, it “is going to get ugly no matter how well we plan.”
[snip]
Assumptions, he said, for the next pandemic include:
[snip]
A free seminar about pandemic flu planning for business, education, government, health-care, faith-based, nonprofit and law enforcement leaders will be held Tuesday, Oct. 31, at the Isle of Capri Convention Center from 8 a.m. to noon.
Presenters will include Louis Katz, Larry Barker and Carol Schnyder from the Scott County Health Department, William Candler and Wendy Trute from the Rock Island County Health Department and Gerry Voelliger from the Bettendorf Fire Department.
To register, contact Mark Hunt at the Bi-State Regional Commission at (309) 793–6302, ext. 131.
Virginia, USA
To: National and State Desks, Health Reporter
Contact: Diane Powers, 804–864–7008; Kelly Lobanov, 804–864–7553; Cheryle Rodriguez, 804–225–4590; Larry Hill, 757–683–9175; Lucy Caldwell, 703–934–0623; Robert Parker, 540–381–7100, ext. 151; all of the Virginia Department of Health
[snip]
WHAT: The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) will take part in a two-day, statewide public health exercise to evaluate response and recovery operations in the event of a pandemic influenza outbreak. State public health officials will conduct a media briefing during the exercise scheduled for Oct. 23–24. VDH, its statewide network of district health departments and numerous partners such as hospitals, emergency management and public safety agencies will use the FLUEX 06 exercise to assess emergency response plans and identify areas for improvement.
WHEN: 10:30 a.m., Oct. 23, 2006
WHERE: Virginia Department of Health, Fifth Floor Conference Room, 109 Governor Street, Richmond, Va.
Media may join the briefing via phone by calling 800–337–3137, and entering the pass code 7008. Please mute your phone. Questions will be taken at the conclusion of the briefing.
Massachusetts, USA
EGREMONT — Sandra Martin, the emergency planning coordinator for the Berkshire County Board of Health Association, has a simple message to local cities and towns regarding the potential an avian flu pandemic could involve the county: Don’t kid yourself.
[snip]
“Yes, it can’t happen here,” said Michael Selzer, chairman of the Egremont Pandemic Preparedness Committee. “Of course. But that’s what they said in New Orleans last year. That’s what they said in San Francisco before the earthquake. And it did happen, and those poor people had to deal with it.”
Should a major flu pandemic sweep through the Berkshires and the Northeast, towns will be faced with shortages of food, goods, services, medical supplies and fuel and power reserves, said Selzer.
New Mexico, USA
Frequently asked questions about the flu pandemic
Public meetings will be scheduled throughout Cibola County during November. Until then, here are some frequently asked questions:
[snip]
Q What can I do to prepare?
Build up supplies of the things you use daily, weekly, monthly, including any medications. Public health experts recommend that people practice “social isolation,” which means being ready to stay home for several weeks during each wave of pandemic illness. Some periods of isolation could last as long as three months at a time. Stock up on enough food to feed each person in your household for about three months.
Choose foods that will last: rice, beans, canned and dried meat, fish, fruit and juice. Ask your doctor about getting a supply of any medications you take regularly.
I originally posted this article over on the Indo thread. But since I think it is so important I am also posting it here. Tells of a massive overhaul of the Indo Health system along the lines of Thailand and Hong Kong. article dated 10–21–06. http://tinyurl.com/yn79ny
Indosiiar.com, Jakarta - the Siti Faddilah Supari Health asked the government to carry out the restructuring of the health system and animal husbandry.
This was important because in Thailand and Hong Kong has had the banning of the poultry in urban areas, they have had his regulations.
Results of the team’s national recommendation of the control of the bird flu virus, concluded 5 points that will be done by the department of livestock breeding and kesenatan. Five points first did the campaign of information communication, sufilant epidemologi to the animal and humankind, penangan the virus to the poultry, the increase in facilities and the capacity and the restructuring of the health system and animal husbandry. “Four from 5 points in livestock breeding and that one for the health, so the Department of Health only 1.5 points.” That meaning that the problem that most difficult was in the poultry, clear Siti.
His side claimed this year 10 thousand villages will be made the alert village bird flu and alert the disaster. Including maximising the available community health centre capacity didaerah this. “So we must the restructuring clearly,” said Siti hard. , be the same as that was applied in Hong Kong that might not have the poultry in urban areas and must outside the city.
However that definitely, according to him between humankind and the animal must be separated. Now the minister for agriculture Anton Apriantono mentioned from 33 provinces that were stated as pendemi the disseminator’s animal of the bird flu virus, has berkuang 14 among them. Now 8 provinces outside from the number, has been freest from the status of the territory pendemi penuluran bird flu from the animal and humankind. His side has mengluarkan decision fibre of the minister for the maintenance regulation of the animal in the settlement and the densely-populated area. The reference has diimplementasikan in several regional governments with mengleuarkan handling Regional Regulations of bird flu. “Like in the Special Capital District of Jakarta already, but kenyataa him could not direct but must be in stages,” he stressed.
Eventually, the restructuring of the health and animal husbandry that were made become regulations will be made the foundation of the law for the regional government applied Regional Regulations. So not have again the refusal from the community, because this was related to the safety of humankind, imbu
HENDERSON, Ky. (AP) — Twenty passengers on a boat cruise on the
Ohio River have shown flu-like symptoms, and officials have alerted a hospital in this riverside town, officials said Friday.
The Mississippi Queen was scheduled to arrive Friday night in
Henderson, about 100 miles west of Louisville. A spokeswoman at Methodist Hospital said the facility had been alerted, but she could not provide details.
The cruise officials were required under federal Food and Drug
Administration rules to notify health officials if 2 to 3 percent of passengers exhibited signs of an illness, said April Matson, a spokeswoman for Majestic America Line, in a telephone interview.
In the meantime, the staff and the 525 passengers have been told
to wash their hands to help prevent the spread of the illness, she said.
The riverboat left Cincinnati on Wednesday and was scheduled to
arrive in St. Louis on Tuesday.
The company is a subsidiary of Ambassadors International Inc., a
cruise, marine, and travel and event company based in Newport Beach, Calif. Majestic America Line owns six cruise ships that ply U.S. coastal and inland waters, and rivers.
The boats travel the Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, Cumberland
and Arkansas rivers in the Midwest and South, and the Columbia, Snake and Willamette rivers in the Northwest. The company also operates cruises of Alaska’s Inside Passage.
(Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.) APTV-10–20–06 1950PDT
PAT18970 – at 23:09 here is a link for the article]
Okay folks, I am back from golf and some Saturday shopping so I am preparing the News Summary - it should take about 30 minutes.
Please hold your postings until the new thread is opened. Cheers and thanks
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