From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What the H Ll is Going On

20 October 2006

ColdClimatePrepperat 14:18

I’ve been away for a couple of days, and get back on this site and see we are up to 206 suspected cases in Indonesia!

Folks on this site seem to be talking more and more from the standpoint that “IT” will happen, probably sooner rather than later.

It appears that WHO is not really in Indonesia checking things out. Is this true? If so, I’m very, very concerned. It means we probably have NO IDEA what is really happening there.

So what the heck is going on here? I’m a bit worried I’m been suffering from “boiled frog” syndrome… that is not noticing the increasing temperature of the water these last few weeks as every day there was another case or two. Its became routine. But coming back after being away for a bit, sure sharpens my focus.

What is YOUR take on the situation.

ColdClimatePrepperat 14:22

“I’ve been” not “I’m been” … suffering from boiled frog syndrome. Sorry, guess this whole thing has me a bit nervous and making typing errors!

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:09

ColdClimatePrepper – at 14:18

I’ve been having the same feeling. I am pretty sure that WHO is not in Indonesia, because I recently read on another thread that Dr. Nabarro was trying diplomatically to get the Indonesian authorities to let the WHO in. Also, fairly recently Indonesia stopped sending samples to the WHO Hong Kong laboratory for testing, because they said that WHO always validated the test results anyway.

I think the nervousness and uncertainty in Fluwikidom is a result of the fact that we don’t know exactly what’s going on, and we have the feeling that no one else really does either, and that if they have an idea of how bad the situation may be in their country, they sure as heck are trying to keep it under wraps.

Just my take on it.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:11

CCP

What cases? I read the New York Times and the Washington Post every day; I haven’t seen a thing about “bird flu” cases.

Fiddlerdave – at 15:36

Exactly! lol, so nicely put, MOM

aurora – at 16:08

Bird flu? That was supposed to happen last fall- isn’t that all over?

snort
Snowhound1 – at 16:26

ColdClimatePrepper- In all seriousness, it does seem like things have heated up a degree over the last week or so. Once the three cases were confirmed by the WHO on the 16th (?), 3 deaths in 4 days, there does seem to be a lot of increased activity in Indo, of course, all of it “unconfirmed” BF at this moment. It will be interesting to see if there is a rash of new confirmed cases next week. We will all have to wait and see. I hate the weekends (that’s a new one for me) as the news just seems to dry up until Monday. I do seem to spend more time on myself and my family on the weekends, primarily because of this, so I guess it really is a blessing. :)

Dizzy – at 17:24

There are 300 million people in Indonesia. 206 cumulative cases doesn’t mean a pandemic. Of course it might be the start, could be that this year’s seasonal flu is the big one, and it does no harm to be prepared. Just be wary that you aren’t pandering to your paranoias and scaring the wits out of yourself.

This time last year Revere at the old Effect Measure site did a round up of the situation. I quote from this:

‘WHO is at pains to emphasize (correctly) this is not evidence of the start of a human pandemic, although the increased range and number of infections might add to the risk. This is correct, of course. But it does mean that preparations and surveillance need to be ramped up everywhere.’

The same could be said now. New Effect Measure (sister site to this one) here. Does wonders for one’s perspective. The Flu Wiki is a brilliant resource, but can lend itself to a tendency towards group freakout, especially when a cluster pops up. Worrying won’t make it not happen, but it will stress your immune system and thus make you less able to fight the damn thing off.

Tom DVM – at 18:51

Dizzy. I agree with everything you said and it makes absolute sense but I might add a small provisal that a flu pandemic is a bit like a car accident. You’re driving along on a summer day, the grass is green and the birds are singing. You see a rain cloud on the horizon but you are not worried because you have passed through similar clouds every day. Then…you have a car accident through no fault of your own…and everything has changed.

H5N1 is the biological equivalent of the rain cloud and the accident.

For that reason, we must not let our gaurd down as the odds are stacked against us including the fact that we are at the upper end of the longest inter-pandemic period in history.

ColdClimatePrepperat 19:12

The whole thing makes me more and more nervous. I am finding that it is increasingly possible to visualize what might happen with a pandemic with high CFR. “Civilization buster” is starting to take on more and more meaning.

Honestly, I think that if people are not at least a little terrified, they are probably not paying attention, or there is a “failure of imagination.” And by “people” I mean not just folks like you and me, but also world leaders… TPTB.

ColdClimatePrepperat 19:30

Dizzy, you are probably right that I worry too much! On the other hand, I would rather have thought out some things ahead of time than be totally surprised when the time comes. Too much worry is bad, but some previewing of the possibilities should prepare us mentally for the future… if “it” happens.

Mr White42 – at 19:44

Worrying has as much to do with it as the luck of the draw does. We read that we are over-due for a pandemic and the clock ticks louder. Selective hearing will not filter the noise should this disaster develop. If New Zealand was the proving ground for Nokia phones then Indonesia could easily be the stew-pot for the “Black Chicken Soup”.

21 October 2006

Dizzy – at 16:47

All, of course it could be the cloud that brings the thunderstorm that runs you off the road. If I thought there was nothing to be concerned about I wouldn’t be here. I guess I just feel for those who are very uptight about PF, have perhaps just woken up to the threat and are as upset as I was 8 months ago. I was foregoing sleep by staying up late to find out as much as I could, which is counterproductive. It’s very unpleasant to feel so vulnerable and unprepared. I have no children so I can only imagine how that multiplies the concerns.

I’ve not been visiting this site as often as I used to, perhaps because I now have a good stock of the basics and have drawn my own conclusions as to how I will deal with varying degrees of severity/chaos if/when PF comes to us. I wish everyone the relative peace of mind that I’ve reached. You are all good people who are taking time to look out for your families and communities.

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